On the agenda - the war of Egypt with Israel and the complete collapse of the Egyptian state
Egypt continues to plunge into chaos. The country's interior ministry announced the introduction of an emergency regime in connection with the attack on the Israeli embassy. Egyptian Prime Minister Isam Sharaf convened an emergency meeting of the government crisis committee to resolve the situation in the capital. The ambassador of Israel hastily left Egypt. Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak on the night of September 10 contacted the head of the US defense department, Leon Panetta, and asked the States to assist in ensuring the security of the Israeli embassy in the Egyptian capital. According to CNN, the attack on the embassy was also discussed during telephone conversations between US President Barack Obama and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.The events taking place in Egypt confirmed the view that the events of the end of January 2011, when the Egyptian “Twitter revolution” was accomplished, was only the beginning of the destabilization of the country and its movement towards chaos.
In order to understand this, it is enough to analyze the situation in the national economy, the demography of Egypt. Look at its geographical location. Almost the entire Egyptian population (more than 80 million!) Is concentrated on a narrow land strip - this is the valley of the Nile River and its delta. It is increasing by a million people in less than a year. This factor creates an additional role in enhancing the destabilization of the country. The country depends on imports of industrial products, food, fuel. The state receives significant US financial assistance. The revolution has undermined one of the most important items of income for the population - the tourism sector (as the service sector feeds more than half of the working Egyptians). There is a water problem - the countries downstream of the Nile have ambitious plans to draw water, this is a terrible blow to Egypt, the Nile is for the Egyptians the river of life. When in a few years the countries located south of Egypt implement their irrigation plans, there will be a complete collapse in Egypt. Or he will have to fight for water.
After the elimination of Mubarak, the country is Islamized. This is a normal process for any revolution, the victory ultimately comes from the one who is the most uncompromising, radical, tough, in Egypt - this is the Islamists, their extremist wing. After the revolution, dozens of Islamists, and simply the criminal element, who was sitting in prisons, got freedom. Yes, and the army is quickly Islamized, Mubarak “cleaned” her regularly, now there is no one to do it.
It is necessary to take into account the factor that a significant part of the population is lumpens, that is, representatives of the declassed strata of society, who are alienated from property, have no relation to productive activities who have not or have lost their professional qualification. So, even according to official data, there were up to 10% of the unemployed in the country and 20% of people lived below the poverty line, the revolution further complicated the situation. Tourists, tourist zones from these groups were separated by an “iron curtain”. It is no coincidence that tourist areas had their own police. These were closed areas where the local poor could not reach.
Hosni Mubarak, the president of Egypt from October 1981 of the year to the beginning of February 2011 of the year, built a very fragile, but progressing system in the country that allowed him to maintain stability. The balance was kept on tourists, on the Suez Canal, on the sale of natural gas to Israel, on American financial aid, on foreign investments, which were secured at the price of iron control in the country. The population under an authoritarian leader received a comparatively small ration, though (another is easy to take, not from where, given the availability of natural resources, population, and other factors), but constantly and with some growth. But this system worked only within the framework of Eastern authoritarianism, hard power, and now it has collapsed.
Islamic factor
All statements by the Muslim Brotherhood that they do not plan to take more than half of the seats in the Egyptian parliament, and are not going to nominate their candidate for the presidency, this is just an information noise. He hides preparations for the transfer of power in the Arab Republic of Egypt (Egypt) into the hands of Islamized armed forces and police, as well as Islamist parties and movements.
The Muslim Brotherhood is very active: in the AER, almost complete freedom of action is now open for any radical movements, the authorities lose control of the situation. In the Sinai Peninsula, al-Qaida members and Iranians cooperate against Israel, the local Bedouin tribes are virtually not controlled by Cairo. That is why Jerusalem allowed Cairo to enter a moderate army contingent on the peninsula, after a series of terrorist attacks in Israel. From the south, through Sudan, there are Al-Qaida channels, its Maghreb subdivisions. The Libyan-Egyptian border is now open, and Islamists are flowing through it, weapons, explosives. Considering the factor that al-Qaeda was entrenched in Cyrenaica, on the border with Egypt, and indeed in Libya, it becomes clear that the creation of an Islamic caliphate is underway.
The Islamists have an eastern outpost - Afghanistan and Pakistan. Now Western has been created and is being created - Libya, Egypt. On the queue in the lists of "modernization", the West cooperates in this and Al-Qaida, Algeria, Syria, Iran. Having crushed these authoritarian regimes, we will get a situation where the “jaws” will close around Israel.
In addition, we must remember that Egypt itself is the homeland of the Muslim Brotherhood. So, the popular television preacher in Qatar, Sheikh Yousef al-Kardawi, is from Egypt. Most of the “political workers” of Al-Qaida, including Ayman al-Zawahiri, are also Egyptians, and at the University of Cairo, Al-Azhar (where, as I remember, Moscow clever men were going to prepare muftis for the Russian Federation) Muslims from all over the world, and they can be staffed not by one Jama'at or Emirate.
And all these "joyful" events occur against the backdrop of the collapse of the Egyptian economy. After the fall of the power of Mubarak, the revolution, the post-revolutionary unrest, the situation in the national economy of Egypt became much worse, the only sector of the economy that is still working normally is the passage of ships through the Suez Canal.
According to Yevgeny Satanovsky, President of the Institute of the Middle East: "The situation in Egypt is not revolutionary, everything is much worse there - it is a situation of chaos." The current Egyptian authorities do not control the situation, they are ready to give up power themselves, or they will do everything that the Islamists point out.
In Egypt, there is a huge "radical Islamized mass of the population, plus the Western media that support unrest with the words" people against dictatorship. " The pogrom at the Israeli embassy is just the beginning, “there will be worse pogroms,” the Egyptian Coptic Christians will face an unenviable future. And the "bells" for them already rang, when there were several clashes associated with the abduction of women. Satanovsky believes that “the agenda is a transition to a state that will lead to the war of Egypt with Israel. It's unavoidable". And until the absolute collapse of the country - 6-10 years.
Barack Obama, who needs to score points on the eve of the election, can deliver a new “peacekeeping” speech, threaten Cairo with the cessation of aid (as the US supplies up to 30-40% of grain and flour), saving several billion dollars. But this situation will not fundamentally change, can only slow down the process of the collapse of the country.
Moscow should ban travel to Egypt, to complete stabilization of the situation. Any foreigner in a wave of riots, pogroms will be the target. Intelligence agencies need to work carefully with people who arrived from Egypt and students who studied there. And other areas - Libya, Jordan, Sudan, etc., must be carefully controlled. We can get a stream of Islamic radicals, and in this case the situation with us is complicated. The Russian Federation for Islamists is the same goal as the authoritarian regimes in the countries of the Islamic world, Israel, India, China. They have channels of communication with Islamists already operating in Russia.
Information