Dollar and war
The US dollar has been buried many times, but it is still alive. On the eve of the collapse of the Bretton Woods monetary system, the share of the dollar in world currency reserves was approaching 80% (1970g - 77,2%; 1972 g. - 78,6%). Then, after the transition to the Jamaican monetary system, it gradually decreased and in 1995 reached the minimum level of 59,0%. In the wake of financial globalization, the dollar’s position strengthened again (in 1999-2001, its share reached 70-71%), but then a new decline in the share of the dollar in the foreign exchange reserves of the world was observed - to the level below 61% in 2014. However, this is more than the 1995 indicator of the year.
According to the Bank for International Settlements, in April 2010, the share of the dollar in operations in the global foreign exchange market was 84,9%, then in April, 2013, it increased to 87. For comparison: the share of euros for the same period fell from 39,1 to 33,4%. The disproportion between the positions of the dollar in world finances and the positions of the USA in the world economy is striking. The share of the United States in global GDP today is about 20%. China has already surpassed the United States in terms of GDP (based on purchasing power parity), but the share of the yuan in operations in the global foreign exchange market was only 2013% in April 2,2. There is no exact data on the share of yuan in world currency reserves, but expert estimates show that it is not much higher than 1%.
These disproportions are very similar to the global economic panorama of the late XIX - early XX centuries. At that time there was a regrouping of the leaders of the world economy. In the first place in terms of industrial and agricultural products came the United States. For some positions, Germany has come to the second place. And the UK, which for most of the XIX century. had the status of "world workshop", began to roll back to third place in the world. At the same time, the British pound sterling remained the world currency, which served as a reserve and international funds. Here is the structure of world reserves by type of currency on the eve of the First World War, in 1913 (%): pound sterling - 47; French franc - 30; German mark - 16; US dollar - 2; other currencies are 5 (Officer, Lawrence H. Dollar Sterling Gold Points: Exchange Rates, Parity, and Market Behavior. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1996). As you can see, the share of the US dollar was extremely small. The disproportion between the level of US economic development and the dollar’s position in the global financial system was about the same as the disproportion between China’s economic development and the yuan.
World bankers who bet on the dollar needed a world war a hundred years ago so that the dollar could take its place under the sun. At the end of 1913, the US Congress, under strong pressure from the "money bags", voted to create the Federal Reserve System, which began to issue the dollar as the US single currency in 1914, and after half a year the world war began. The war changed the balance of power among the leading powers and their currencies. In 1928, the distribution of world currency reserves was as follows (%): pound sterling - 77; US dollar - 21; French franc - 2. (Officer, Lawrence H.). That is, the pound sterling, despite the sharp economic weakening of the UK, not only did not weaken its position, but even strengthened further. The US dollar has increased its share by an order of magnitude compared with 1913 year and confidently took second place. Other competing currencies have faded. In order to finally defeat the British pound, the Fed owners had to prepare and conduct another world war, after which the dollar was equated to gold and became, in fact, the only world currency.
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Formally, the position of the dollar in the world is currently very good, but the main shareholders of the Federal Reserve System can not but be embarrassed by the fact that the disproportion between US GDP and the dollar’s position is increasing. The dollar is becoming more volatile. If desired, several large countries can coordinate their efforts, pool resources, begin dumping dollar reserves and crash the dollar. However, the strength of the Fed owners is that they have always been able to act proactively. And now there are many signs that they are taking practical steps to protect the dollar and, above all, to prepare for a big war. There are several reasons for initiating such a war with the “money owners” (owners of the Fed printing press).
1. The owners of the printing press need to maintain the demand and price for their products. The voluntary “flight for the dollar” in Europe ended more than half a century ago. Rational economic incentives to purchase dollars in the world is not visible. After all, the dollar mass that comes down from the Fed's printing press today is many times larger than anything that is created in the US economy. And the US gold reserves, although the largest in the world (more than 8000 tons), cover only a fraction of a percent of the total mass of "green". One thing remains: to force the "goods" produced by the Federal Reserve to force the world. The only guarantee for the dollar today is the US Armed Forces, whose main function is to maintain the demand for green paper. In the United States, the classic military-industrial complex (MIC) has long been transformed into a military-banking complex (WBC).
After the collapse of the Bretton Woods monetary system, the Jamaican currency system, which is the petrodollar system, took its place, since the dollar was tied to black gold in 1970's (oil began to be traded solely for dollars). Oil is still the foundation of the dollar system. Although America today is almost independent of oil imports, it controls oil-producing countries. The purpose of control is to prevent the transition in the black gold trade to currencies other than the dollar. To this end, Washington resorts to military operations in oil-producing regions, if necessary. First of all, in the Middle East. Muammar Gaddafi was overthrown and brutally murdered only because he first switched from dollars to euros in oil payments, and then planned to switch to a gold dinar.
2. When the US dollar begins to fall, America includes all the levers to strengthen the weakening dollar (operations to destabilize the political situation in different parts of the world; civil and regional wars). Against this background, America, despite its increasing economic degradation, is turning into an artificial “island of stability”. Capitals from all over the world are beginning to rush to America, raising the rate of "green paper". Why does America need a high dollar rate? Answer is easy.
First, the US gets the opportunity for cheap imports, providing domestic consumption. A printing press coupled with an overvalued American currency is an ideal condition for the existence of a parasite state.
Secondly, with the help of the expensive dollar, America (or rather, the owners of the Fed) gets the opportunity to buy cheaply all over the world natural resources, enterprises, real estate, and other assets. The prevailing dollar system will be needed by the Fed owners until the whole world comes under their control.
3. The "owners of money" (the main shareholders of the Fed) may require not only regional but also global destabilization, that is, world war. Such destabilization should lead to mutual destruction or, at least, the weakening of all potential competitors of America. Washington (or rather, the Federal Reserve) needs only a monocentric model of the world. Without a big war, this model is not built. World War will solve many of America’s economic problems that soon threaten to become critical for it.
For example, the US national debt at the end of 2013 of the year was already 104,5%. But in Europe, which has been experiencing a debt crisis for several years, this figure is lower. In euro area countries at the end of 2013, it was equal to 92,6%. No less acute for Washington is the problem of external debt. In August, 2014, the relative level of this debt reached 107% of GDP. Debt servicing has to spend an increasing majority of revenue. Today, in the expenditures of the US budget, interest on government debt is small (about 7%), but the interest rates in the American economy as a result of the quantitative easing program (CS) were purely symbolic. The COP program is being phased out, the costs of servicing the state and all other debts will increase dramatically. In this situation, the ruling circles of the United States certainly recall history a hundred years ago. On the eve of the First World War, America already occupied the first place in the world in industrial production, but at the same time it had a gigantic external debt (first of all, to Great Britain). World War I radically changed the situation. The United States has become the largest net international lender. At the same time, their main war allies, Great Britain and France, became America’s largest debtors. At the end of the Second World War, America concentrated 70% of world gold reserves (without the Soviet Union). This strengthening of the United States and allowed to legalize the position of the dollar as a world currency (the decision of the international conference in Bretton Woods in 1944 year).
In the event that the United States manages to become the sole beneficiary of the Third World War, the problem of its old debts will disappear by itself. Washington will then be able to unilaterally write off the debts of other countries from its balance sheet, arbitrarily determining which countries bear the “blame” for the war. The monetary requirements of the "guilty" countries to America are canceled by definition, this is exactly what the Entente countries did in relation to Germany at the Paris Peace Conference 1919 of the year. Moreover, America as a winner will be able to impose "guilty" on reparations and indemnities. Just as the Entente countries did at the same conference in Paris in 1919.
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The Third World War will be fundamentally different than everything that the world has known so far. It will start without an official announcement. And although we are still not fully aware of this, such a war, most likely, has already begun. With the use of mercenaries (private military companies), relying on the fifth column within individual countries, with the active use of Maidan technologies, connecting media controlled by Washington, announcing economic sanctions, etc. This undeclared war is waged under the banner of combating terrorism, “radical Islamism”, “Russian aggression”, violation of human rights, etc. etc.
In the course of such an undeclared world war, the “owners of money” (shareholders of the Fed) will solve the accumulated problems of the dollar. For example, under the flag of combating terrorism and “dirty money”, the United States may conduct a “monetary reform”. Its essence is simple. The Fed issues new dollars and organizes their exchange for the old "green mass". At the same time, bearers of old dollars must provide reliable evidence of the legality of their origin. Control filters can be so strict that the lion's share of old dollars will not pass the "exam" and turn into garbage. So the problem of the "dollar overhang" will be removed, pressing on Uncle Sam. However, for the United States, this option is not ideal either - the one-time robbery of the whole world may encourage other countries to use their national currencies in international payments, create regional currencies, and completely abandon the dollar.
Therefore, in the third undeclared world war, other economic methods can be used. For example, despite the fact that the "green mass" flooded the whole world, the purchasing power of the dollar in commodity markets is quite high. No threat of hyperinflation is visible. Everything is very simple. The lion’s share of all printing press production goes to financial markets. However, there is a way 101 to minimize or even completely eliminate these same financial markets. Then all the "green mass" will rush to the commodity markets. There will be hyperinflation, comparable to the one experienced by the Weimar Republic at the beginning of the 20 of the XX century. At best, the purchasing power of the current dollar will be 1%. Catastrophe? How to look. Indeed, in this case, holders of trillions of dollars around the world will have only one garbage on their hands. Only in China, gold reserves have already exceeded 4 trillion dollars, and the "green paper" accounts for at least 1 / 3. After that, America conducts monetary reform and introduces a new full-weight dollar. About five years ago, the problem of the possibility of such a “monetary reform” was actively discussed, only in place of the new dollar, the monetary unit called “Amero” was predicted. It was assumed that it would be the single currency of the three countries - the United States, Canada and Mexico. The option of replacing the dollar with the Amero may still be reanimated, but it will require very serious security support from Washington.
In any case, there is no reason to expect a reduction in instability in the world. This instability is a manifestation of the weakness of the dollar and the agony of the owners of the Fed printing press. Like a wounded beast, they will fight to the end. If only recently it was said that Washington is implanting "controlled chaos" in the world, now it is already obvious that chaos is becoming uncontrollable. However, the first two world wars did not end the way the bankers who had begun them ended.
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