Smooth devaluation rake

43


Not for the first time, Russia is facing a powerful attack on the ruble. The first time was in 2008. The ruble experienced even more pressure in the 2014 year. The thing is that the Central Bank of Russia is attacking the same rake for the second time under the name of “smooth” devaluation.

In order to understand the problem, you must refer to ... some of the rules that apply when pricing. The experience of KAMAZ will help us in this. In particular, thanks to this experience, we understand why George Soros’s famous attack on the British pound in 1992 was successful, why the pressure on the ruble in 2014 turned out to be so powerful, and how Nobel laureate Robert Schiller has to do with it.

Two times on the same rake
In 2008 and in 2014, the exchange rate of the ruble was subjected to very strong pressure. In 2008, the exchange rate did not change so extensively (from 23 to 36 rubles per dollar, by 56%), but the Central Bank of Russia spent currency interventions for more than 200 billion dollars for foreign exchange interventions, having bought back more than 5,5 trillion rubles for bring down the weakening of the ruble.

In 2014, the scale of operations of the Central Bank was somewhat lower, and currency worth more than 70 billion was spent to buy out almost 3,5 trillion rubles. But at the same time, the change in the exchange rate of the ruble at times reached 100% even at the “conservative” official rate. From 33,6 rubles to dollars at the end of June 2014, the ruble exchange rate fell to 67,8 rubles to dollars in December 2014.

The fact that the ruble fell along with other currencies of developing countries is little comforting, because in terms of the scale of the fall, at a certain moment (albeit temporarily) it became the world record holder, even ahead of the Ukrainian hryvnia. What is the reason for these repetitive situations? From further presentation it will be clear that the reason for everything is a “smooth” devaluation (sometimes it is also called “velvet”). And Russia is already the second time attacking the same rake, not taking into account past lessons.

Marketing lesson for the Central Bank
Marketing will help us to understand the reasons for what is happening, or rather the marketing section dedicated to pricing. Economic theory suggests that with increasing prices for goods, demand decreases (the so-called law of demand). But in marketing, situations are described where a rise in the price of a product increases sales. And this is explained by the fact that in some cases, the buyer perceives a rise in prices as confirmation of the high quality of the goods or as a signal that the goods are in demand. And he buys the goods “until prices have risen,” even if he had not previously planned to do this. So where is the truth? Rights economic theory or marketing?

The KAMAZ company (of which I am an employee) faced situations when wrong decisions in setting prices resulted in significant losses. Here is one of many examples. At the end of 2011 - the beginning of 2012, KAMAZ sharply raised prices for one of its models, the KAMAZ-6520 dump truck. Increased costs were pushing prices up, but there seemed to be no problem with demand. This decision was a mistake. Sales dropped sharply, and following the results of 2012 of the year (compared to 2011), KAMAZ reduced its share of the heavy truck market from 44% to 27%.

Learn from mistakes. An important conclusion was made: the key, often decisive, nature of price increases is whether it is smooth or abrupt.

Four variants of price dynamics and market reaction
Let us consider four combinations of two parameters of price dynamics: price increase — price reduction, smooth change — sharp change.

1. Smooth price increase

A gradual increase in prices, as a rule, increases the desire to purchase a product (and in general, any asset).

A case of gradual price increases is schematically depicted on the 1 graph.

1 chart. Smooth price increases stimulate an increasing number of customers to purchase goods faster.



The thoughts of a potential buyer in this case are approximately as follows: “The goods are in demand and it is worth purchasing them faster before they become too expensive”

If this situation occurs in the asset market (for example, stocks), then it is important to understand the thoughts of potential sellers, that is, those who have this asset. In the present case, they are approximately the following: “My asset becomes more expensive. Good thing I bought it before. It’s not worth selling now, I’ll wait for further price increases. ” There are more and more buyers, less sellers, which pushes prices further upwards.

“The price will rise!” - this is the general mood of the market.

2. Sharp price increase

If the price increase has occurred sharply, then this can very significantly reduce demand (graph 2).

2 chart. Sharp price increases reduce the volume of purchases, especially if prices then freeze.



After takeoff prices, the volume of purchases is sharply reduced. The thoughts of the buyer are approximately as follows: “I did not have time to buy on time. Prices will now fall (option: will not grow), you can not rush with the purchase. " Such a situation arose in the case described above with a sharp rise in prices by KAMAZ by their dump trucks.

Sellers, on the contrary, believe that their finest hour has come and it's time to sell the asset until prices fell. The decrease in the number of buyers and the increase in the number of sellers are pushing prices down.

“The price will fall (or not grow)” - this is the general mood of the market.

3. Smooth price reduction

With a gradual decline in prices, customers are getting smaller (3 chart)

3 chart. A gradual increase in 1 prices leads to a reduction in the number of purchases.



Thoughts of potential buyers are clear: why rush, because prices are falling. And those who have such an asset, they think that it is necessary to get rid of the asset, while prices have not fallen even lower.

As a result, there are many sellers in the market and few buyers, and this pushes prices down.

"Prices will fall" - this is the expectation of the market.

4. Sharp drop in prices

A sharp drop in prices attracts buyers (graph 4)

4 chart. After a sharp fall in prices there is an increase in the number of purchases.



Potential buyers believe that it is necessary to use the moment until prices have risen. And those who have an asset think something like this: “I was late with the sale. It is probably better to wait until prices rise, than to sell at a loss. ” Both those and others expect a rise in prices.

There are more buyers than sellers and this is pushing prices up.

"Prices will rise" - this is the expectation of market players.

Key findings
Of the four options considered, we can draw several conclusions:

The behavior of buyers and sellers due to the expected dynamics of prices.
This expected dynamic becomes a “self-fulfilling” forecast.
If possible, a manufacturer (seller) interested in sales growth should adhere to the following rule: "Increase prices slowly, lower quickly."
As a marketer, I can add that there are exceptions to these rules. For example, if you want to change the positioning of the product in the eyes of customers (so that it is considered prestigious, for example), then the manufacturer may behave differently.

As a person who has experience in operations in the stock and currency markets, I will cite one more exception. Exchange players (speculators) know that trying to buy a sharply depreciating asset may be like “trying to catch a falling knife.” This means that asset prices may continue to fall further. Peter Lynch in his book “Peter Lynch Method” (M. Alpina Publisher, 2011) writes that “trying to catch the bottom of a falling stock is akin to trying to catch a falling knife - you invariably grab it at the wrong moment”.

Despite these individual exceptions, the general “laws” of price dynamics described above act exceptionally well, as can be seen from specific examples. This is what we will do.

Soros's attack on the British pound in 1992
In 1992, George Soros, then a little-known American public financier, led a speculative game to weaken the British pound sterling. As a result of his actions, the pound rate plummeted, and Soros, according to various estimates, earned from one to two billion US dollars on this operation.

The simplified scheme of [1] of Soros’s actions was as follows:

The British pounds sterling worth about 5 bn.
These pounds were sold (they bought German marks), which caused a drop in the pound exchange rate relative to the mark (and, as a result, to other currencies too).
The Bank of England tried to resist the fall of the pound, buying 15 billion pounds during interventions (spending gold and foreign exchange reserves on these interventions). This did not help, and 16 September 1992, the Bank of England announced the termination of the intervention. Pound crashed.
When the pound exchange rate collapsed, returning the loan in pounds cost Soros 1 billion (according to other versions, 2 billion) cheaper in dollar terms. This was his profit from this speculative attack.
Note the bold amounts. The key question for us is: how could Soros, with a capital of about 5 billion pounds, be able to withstand the Bank of England's interventions in the amount of 15 billion pounds and win?

The answer is contained in the above-established “laws” of price dynamics, they are also the laws of the attractiveness of assets:

The German brand grew smoothly in price and customers (besides Soros) became more and more. And the owners of the German brand, who wanted to sell it (it would be the "allies" of the Bank of England), became less and less.
The British pound was gradually losing its price and it became more and more willing to sell it. Conversely, the number of people willing to buy a pound was becoming less and less (why buy if tomorrow you can buy cheaper).
George Soros turned out to be only those who gave an initial impetus to the “smooth” dynamics of the course, infected the pound sales with a virus. “Soros was not alone: ​​many investors followed his example and sold pounds, putting tremendous pressure on the exchange rate of this currency” (Ketti Lin, “Day Trading in the Forex Market”, Alpina Publisher, 2013).
Clearly, the entire operation of Soros can be seen on the 5 graph.

5 chart. The “smooth” devaluation of the pound by the Bank of England allowed Soros to draw a huge number of followers into operations against the pound



Chart Source: Ketty Lin, “Day Trading in the Forex Market” (M., Alpina Publisher, 2013); comments by the author. Note: A downward movement of the chart means a weakening of the pound sterling relative to the German mark.

The above “laws” of price dynamics very well explain what happened.

The German mark was perceived as a smoothly rising asset (see 1 chart). The number of brand buyers quickly increased, and those who wanted to sell it became less and less, which further strengthened the brand's course.
The British pound was perceived as a smoothly depreciating asset (see the 3 chart). The number of sellers of a pound increased rapidly, and those who wanted to buy it became less and less, which further affected the depreciation of the pound.
An attentive reader can now find analogies in the situation with the Russian ruble in 2014. We will look at this question further.

Robert Schiller on price bubbles
The behavior that we described in our "laws of price dynamics" is very well known. For this, even the Nobel Prizes receive.

So the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2013 was awarded to three economists, one of which was Robert Schiller, a professor at Yale University (the other two are Eugene Fama and Lars Peter Hansen). The prize was awarded for an "empirical analysis of asset prices."

The Vedomosti newspaper writes about this: “Schiller can be considered the most famous among the wider economic circles of today's laureates. He is actively studying the dependence of asset prices on the psychology of people, in collaboration with the Nobel laureate George Akerloff, he wrote, in particular, the book Spiritus Animalis, or How Human Psychology Manages the Economy, where he spoke about the features of human behavior that affect macroeconomic processes. Schiller can be considered the author of the definition of a “market bubble” - this is “a temporary rise in asset prices, due more to investor enthusiasm than a true, fundamental assessment of their real value”

“The appearance of bubbles is impossible to predict. I tend to think of them as social epidemics: they are transmitted from person to person in much the same way as ordinary infections. A bubble begins to form when the level of contagion of ideas that forms it grows. But the level of infectiousness depends on the thinking patterns and psychological attitudes - the subject of which it is extremely difficult to judge, ”he writes. And we add that it also depends on the smooth growth of prices for the "infectious asset".

In his article in another issue of the Vedomosti newspaper, Schiller writes: “In the second edition of my book, Irrational Euphoria, I tried to give a better definition of a bubble. “The price bubble,” I wrote then, “is a situation where news The growth of prices is stimulated by investor activity 1 and this enthusiasm is spread through a kind of epidemic, psychosis, transmitted from one person to another, while multiplying in parallel the explanations for this price increase ... envy of the success of others, and partly the excitement of the player. "

It is easy to imagine not the abstract “price increase” mentioned in this quotation, but concrete examples of such growth. Just imagine that we are talking about, for example, the price of a German mark during the attack of Soros on the British pound. Or about the US dollar during an attack on the Russian ruble in 2014.

Schiller talks more about the rise in asset prices, and not about falling prices. But we described above about the impact of falling prices on the behavior of buyers and sellers.

For those who want to read more on this topic in a fun and accessible way, I recommend the book by the wonderful author Elena Chirkova “The Anatomy of the Financial Bubble”, which is replete with numerous interesting examples from the literature.

It was precisely the type of behavior described by Schiller that helped George Soros bring down the British pound.

Bank of Russia in the 2014 year repeats the mistakes of the Bank of England 1992 of the year
In 2014, the situation on the currency market for the ruble evolved just as it happened with the pound in the distant 1992 year. First, the ruble gradually devalued over several months (from June to November). Then, in December of 2014, there was a precipitous depreciation of the ruble exchange rate (6 chart).

6 chart. The smooth devaluation of the ruble has attracted more and more players to play against it in 2014.



Source: Central Bank of the Russian Federation, official rate (rubles per dollar). Note: the upward movement of the chart means a weakening of the ruble against the US dollar.

Now many are trying to understand the reason for such a collapse. But for those readers who read the basics of the “dynamic pricing theory” outlined above and know the reasons for the successful attack of George Soros on the British pound, one of the reasons is clear. This is the involvement of more and more players in the game against the ruble due to the “smoothness” of the devaluation.

Involving an increasing number of people can be seen with the naked eye. Even Elvira Nabiullina said in an interview with Russia 24 10 on November 2014 of the year: “On expectations of a weakening (ruble), this game, unfortunately, includes everything, including the population,” the head of the Bank of Russia explained. - Both banks and companies are involved in this. Exporters can delay the sale of foreign exchange earnings, and importers can buy currency for the future because they have to pay for contracts. This behavior, which stems from the constant expectation of a weakening course. "

Elvira Nabiullina does not know about one thing alone: ​​these expectations of the fall in the ruble exchange rate were created by the Central Bank itself under her leadership. The main reason is the “smoothness” of the weakening of the course, which involves more and more players in the sale of the ruble. And in this case it becomes less and less willing to sell their dollars. All as in "primer".

A weak consolation for Elvira Nabiullina, but an additional alarming circumstance for all of Russia is that this is already the second time. Exactly the same situation was in 2008 year (7 graph).

7 chart. In 2008, the situation followed exactly the same scenario as in 2014.



Source: Central Bank of the Russian Federation, official rate (rubles per dollar). Note: the upward movement of the chart means a weakening of the ruble against the US dollar.

If for Elvira Nabiullina a repetition of the situation of 2008 of the year can serve as a kind of excuse (“I did not do this alone”), then for the Central Bank, as an institution, and the economic authorities in general, this is a very disturbing sign. After all, the repetition of errors means one of two things: either the so-called “engineering memory” does not work in the system, when bad practices are rejected and not repeated. Either (which is also likely) the correct conclusions were not drawn from the errors of 2008 of the year. And the conclusion, confirmed by two unsuccessful practitioners (2008 and 2014), is the same: smooth devaluation is a very unfortunate solution for the stability of the exchange rate (and the Central Bank is legally responsible for this stability).

Analysis of the reasons for failures in the exchange rate policy of the Central Bank is an interesting and useful matter. But the question always arises: how is it right? What was the correct tactics of the Central Bank? And here, to our happiness, it is not necessary to go far behind the experience. Our closest neighbor, Kazakhstan, can serve as a wonderful example.

Kazakhstan as a good example

The Central Bank of Kazakhstan, in contrast to the Central Bank of Russia, more competently built its exchange rate policy. Back in March, the 2014 of the year, when the pressure on the gold and foreign exchange reserves of Kazakhstan increased, the Central Bank stopped protecting the tenge rate at the level of 156 tenge per dollar. He switched to “prepared defensive lines” at the level of 186 tenge per dollar.

As a result, the devaluation was not smooth, but sharp. It is for this reason that the “broad popular masses” did not join the game, as in Russia. This eased the task of the Central Bank of Kazakhstan to stabilize the exchange rate, retained the country's gold and currency reserves.

The tenge exchange rate to the dollar has since strengthened even slightly (graph 8). And the tenge to the euro strengthened very significantly (graph 9). This absolutely confirms our “theory of price dynamics”. Forms of graphs generally repeat the case of sharp price increases (see 2 graph and commentaries to it), and the dollar and the euro act as a sharply appreciated asset. Now "bite your elbows" those who did not have time to sell the currency at a higher rate.

8 chart. The exchange rate of the tenge to the dollar after a one-time devaluation in March 2014 remained stable, slightly strengthening.



Source: www.finam.ru

9 chart. The exchange rate of the tenge to the euro after the devaluation in March 2014 year strengthened and is close to its values ​​before the devaluation.



Source: www.finam.ru

As a result, Kazakhstan now has a completely different set of problems. He is concerned not with weakening the tenge, but with his too strong strengthening, including with respect to the fallen ruble.

Conclusion
It is possible that the basis of the described behavior is some very deep, general principles. If a group of predators (for example, wolves, hyenas) feels the weakening of resistance on the part of the victim, then it intensifies the attack. This, perhaps, is repeated in social life. Gradual and continuous concessions, for example, to terrorists, only whet their appetites, as if confirming the weakness of the other side.

It would be very useful for the Central Bank of Russia to write down all the drawbacks of a “smooth” devaluation to itself in “engineering memory” and not step on the same rake in the future.

The “smooth or sharp” devaluation dilemma is not the only issue of a verified exchange rate policy. But this is the topic of other articles.
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43 comments
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  1. +9
    14 January 2015 14: 53
    Tex. We are waiting for publications on the website of economic dissertations in full.
    1. +20
      14 January 2015 15: 03
      "... The Central Bank of Kazakhstan, unlike the Central Bank of Russia, has built its exchange rate policy more competently."

      But could Nabiullin and Ulyukaev, who were trained in the United States, send the graduates of the IVLP Program (International Visitor Leadership Program - International Guest Leadership Program) organized by the US Department of State and aiming to enlighten participants regarding American values ​​and outlooks on life that are held by US citizens for further TRAINING IN KAZAKHSTAN!
      1. The comment was deleted.
      2. The comment was deleted.
      3. +8
        14 January 2015 15: 33
        Quote: nils
        trained in the USA, IVLP graduates
        Yes indeed. It is from there that this liberal public.

        Like all eltsinoids, Gaidar-Chubais and other curls and bulk.

        twitter.com/USEmbRu/status/321987486001795072
        1. -1
          15 January 2015 09: 33
          Take a look at the problem on a global scale.
          For this, people need to be isolated or eliminated, and not given them Nobel prizes.
          Simple people and entire countries suffer from currency speculation.
          Currency exchanges and speculators urgently need to be outlawed, and all countries on the planet must do so.
      4. The comment was deleted.
      5. +5
        14 January 2015 15: 51
        You do not understand anything in the liberal economy, if Nabiulina did everything right, as if Gref could make such a decent profit. This is called investing in your personnel with the subsequent return on investment. If after all this Nabiulina is expelled from the Central Bank, they find a warm little dusty place, maybe in the same Sberbank
      6. +4
        14 January 2015 16: 08
        But whether to send Nabiullin and Ulyukaev
        Still how to send, these eternal trainees.
        1. +1
          14 January 2015 18: 50
          Quote: jktu66
          But whether to send Nabiullin and Ulyukaev
          Still how to send, these eternal trainees.

          Well, yes ... let them train in their source, and not in public !!!
      7. +10
        14 January 2015 18: 13
        Quote: nils
        "... The Central Bank of Kazakhstan, unlike the Central Bank of Russia, has built its exchange rate policy more competently."

        But wouldn’t I send Nabiullin and Ulyukaev [...] for further EDUCATION IN KAZAKHSTAN!

        Kazakhstan did not build a competent policy. Just there, apparently, there are fewer greedy raking insatiable hucksters.

        And I would send them to study not to Kazakhstan, but to China, where for such "pranks" publicly, with broadcast on television - the death penalty.
        1. +3
          14 January 2015 20: 43
          3-5 "cranes" will help to return the ruble exchange rate "back".
    2. +3
      14 January 2015 16: 07
      There will be no dissertations, but "Atalef co-comrades" will explain everything to us so that we do not boil over nonsense.
    3. +11
      14 January 2015 16: 36
      Quote: Abbra
      We are waiting for publications on the website of economic dissertations

      First you need to understand without dissertations.
      "Some civilians" who have undergone training somewhere there clearly lack the understanding that in the present situation of confrontation, purely economic methods do not work.
      The phrase in the article is indicative - the Central Bank bought in 2008 200 trillion for $ 5,5 billion. rub.
      From captivity, whether bought? laughing
      The conclusion is clear - unfortunately, a number of investors, bankers both ours and foreign the goal of their investments is to set the situation so that the Central Bank would redeem rubles from them and place the currency in offshore. What's the beautiful!
      And this, in the present conditions of the global economy under the auspices of the USA and the dollar, is really economically profitable and better for them than tinkering with all kinds of industries there.
      That is, it is necessary to do so that:
      1. It would not be profitable, dangerous, call it whatever you like, buy up the currency and export it. By the way, a free rate is also not a bad tool. This may be the deprivation of all the economic benefits of companies that do not hold money in Russia, etc. etc.
      2. The natural question is: where do the trillions of free rubles come from for buying up currency on the MICEX? Profits of factories and farmers?
      That is unlikely!
      The lion's share, most likely, central bank loans commercial.
      Therefore, it is necessary to lend to the economy not with free "live" money, but with bills (like MEFO bills), that is, essentially money that can only be spent on mutual settlements between producers.
      Perhaps only these measures would have greatly calmed the ruble.
      Or is this all nonsense? wink
      Or do they know better in the Government and the Central Bank?
    4. -1
      15 January 2015 05: 13
      the language is all so smart!
  2. 0
    14 January 2015 14: 56
    And I want to shout - and yet it spins !!!!, the Russian economy ....
    1. nicollider
      +11
      14 January 2015 15: 15
      Are you hinting that they are turning it on something?
    2. +1
      14 January 2015 18: 12
      It is believed that it’s hard to believe, the government has gotten water in its mouth, people have nothing to say. For five years at least they asked ... or. And everything is in their places, it seems to me that they live on another planet (the film Kin-dza-dza), and got to Moscow by mistake ...
      Quote: mig31
      And I want to shout - and yet it spins !!!!, the Russian economy ....
  3. +12
    14 January 2015 14: 56
    Liberalists today muddied the forum of some Gaidar. looked a bit live. this is such an abomination !!! at the head of the government one hundred percent traitor !!!
    1. +8
      14 January 2015 15: 43
      I wrote in another thread. To this forum you can customize the convoy of avtozak and all the participants led by DAM to master the north! One hope is that they do not know how to work, they are very tired, often relax. As a result, they will not be able to do everything they have said. Because if they do, you can immediately go to the forest in a partisan detachment
      1. +7
        14 January 2015 16: 32
        Quote: Zdishek
        As a result, they will not be able to do everything they have said. Because if they do, you can immediately go to the forest in a partisan detachment


        And thank God, because the situation in the global economy is so unpredictable. What Medvedev’s mantras are about impossibilities the mobilization economy and state control of the ruble and foreign exchange operations will lead to the opposite result ...
        It is interesting that almost all high-ranking Europeans refused to participate in it because of sanctions, but the number of American curators increased.
        “The number of participants is growing. This year we have registered more than 7 thousand people. Twice as many foreigners come to us. If in the past there were about 250, now there are more than 500 foreign partners. And almost doubled the number of US representatives»

        VLADIMIR MAU
        RECTOR OF THE RUSSIAN ACADEMY OF PEOPLE'S ECONOMY AND PUBLIC SERVICE UNDER THE PRESIDENT OF THE RF

        In general, pressure is increasing on all fronts. By leaps and bounds ... After all, how cunningly liberals put an equal sign between a mobilization economy and HIDDEN from the whole world
        Russia, even in the current conditions she’s not going to close herself from the world, to change course towards creating a mobilization model of economic development. We have gone a giant path from a post-Soviet dilapidated economy to a large Western-type economy. And it would be a monstrous mistake to return to the past, although we are periodically called upon to do so, abandon the role of an active player in the modern global world"

        D.Medvedev

        Typical substitution of concepts. Indeed, a mobilization economy is a synonym for a SOVEREIGN economy, while a liberal one assumes DEPENDENCE on external players in the modern global world if we follow the logic of Medvedev.
        The Gaidarites offer us a model when we live in the same market conditions, the degree of social differentiation will increase, the oligarchs will enrich, but at the same time we will drastically reduce spending on social goals, education, healthcare, and long-term development programs.
        Siluanov: The Ministry of Finance proposes a reduction of spending in 2015 by 10% for all items except protected

        link
        A mobilization economy involves concentration of resources in key areas, their support by the state and ideologically. It is clear that it is difficult to switch ideologically, especially since we are deeply rooted in the West and controlled by it. It is necessary to explain to people that there is a choice between a warm toilet, comfortable furniture and the very existence of you, your family and your country. By the way, this is more true for wealthy citizens who have a house in Spain and an account in the offshore ... They will be dispossessed first of all and I’m ready as a pioneer for any mobilization because I don’t have any bills and houses, but I’m about to cut them from work due to the crisis in Ukraine and the curtailment of joint space and military programs laughing
  4. +1
    14 January 2015 15: 01
    I read that it is not difficult for a specialist to understand all the subtleties. But what was thought. If you read the specialist’s article next, and there are undoubtedly those who justify the correctness of the Central Bank’s actions, it will become quite melancholy.
    1. +14
      14 January 2015 15: 40
      One thing is clear: there are money for high salaries and pensions in the country, and not enough for low ones.
      1. +1
        14 January 2015 16: 04
        Today you are my idol! How exactly said!
  5. +3
    14 January 2015 15: 06
    I noticed a pattern - the longer the article, the fewer comments.
    1. +3
      14 January 2015 16: 03
      Quote: reut.sib
      I noticed a pattern - the longer the article, the fewer comments

      You see, the namesake, people just don’t know how to read, especially long articles, they are afraid of them
      read completely, because they will not have the strength to others.
  6. FACKtoREAL
    +4
    14 January 2015 15: 11
    This song is dedicated to Nabiullina ... crying
  7. +3
    14 January 2015 15: 13
    I'm afraid that our government still has a rake in stock.
    That M ..... wu like GMOs, the former Minister of Defense did everything right.
    What's next?
    1. +2
      14 January 2015 16: 18
      I'm afraid that our government still has a rake in stock.
      Are you implying that the level of members of the government is the board of an outsider collective farm? Let the damned weevil choke? laughing
  8. +7
    14 January 2015 15: 26
    It’s a very clever article, and today I understand M. Delyagin’s phrase: - To appoint Naebulin to the Central Bank is the same as appointing a pedophile as the director of a kindergarten.
  9. +2
    14 January 2015 15: 44

    so here ...
    1. +2
      14 January 2015 16: 01
      Now, as never before, there is an urgent need for a Stalinist apparatus for governing the country. Its now oh how missing. Traitors and skins would howl like a wolf, and lick their boots.
    2. +2
      14 January 2015 17: 10
      Quote: tyzyaga
      so here ...

      As a skeptic and pessimist, I don’t get hung up on the thoughts voiced by Delyagin and Kalashnikov - "Nabiulina sent Putin in three letters"... First, the wording is too simple. Secondly, Nabiulina, Medvedev, etc. EXACTLY Putin's team. The actions of all of the above are reminiscent of the actions of a well-coordinated team, acting on the principle of "Good Cop - Bad Cop". In Russian it sounds like this - "The king is good, the boyars are bad." And their true goals are not a little foggy. Only a variant of the real state of affairs, but logically it is the most probable. Otherwise, everyone laments over the failure to comply with the "May Decrees", and not a single high-ranking official who did not fulfill the President's DIRECT ORDER was dismissed. Questions, some questions. hi
      1. Cpa
        0
        15 January 2015 04: 30
        Quote: Ingvar 72
        Questions, some questions.

        It's just that no one wants to answer for anything in the government. Like those "two from the casket" who until the president specifies specifically WHAT and HOW to do, no one will do anything intelligible. Before Medvedev, Putin spoke specifically and demanded targeted, but now .. "It is necessary to do this, try to achieve this and in no case prevent this!" And the entire government is sitting and nodding with an air of importance, saying Vladimir Vladimirovich is very necessary, and since we were not given anything specifically, then we will act as we are used to (conveniently) so that later we will not be extreme, and what is more, what is useful for ourselves sbatsayem.A well, how the ministry turns out like Kudrin, no-no responsibility should be smeared with a thin layer on everyone. And the extreme will be force majeure or you are Mr. President! "
  10. +1
    14 January 2015 15: 45
    And why exactly "on the rake". And why not apply here such a concept as "Stupidity or treason"? But only such things do not look like stupidity.
  11. +3
    14 January 2015 15: 46
    Many thanks to the author. The article is really interesting. And about our Central Bank: no need to think that he is playing on our side. Everyone can open the constitution and the law on the Central Bank. Both there and there it is written that the Central Bank conducts its activities independently of the authorities. Add to this the fact that the government is headed by a liberal, and the head of the Central Bank studied in America. Conclusion: this is not a mistake. And Kazakhstan respect for patriotism. But we still break through, I'm sure!
  12. 0
    14 January 2015 15: 47
    I do not know. But today I came across such information:

    "Ministry of Finance: Russia's Reserve Fund has almost doubled.
    By January 1, 2015, the Reserve Fund of Russia amounted to 4,95 trillion rubles. Compared to the beginning of 2014, the volume of the fund has grown 1,7 times. At the same time, the National Welfare Fund (NWF) increased by one and a half times to 4,39 trillion. The relevant information is contained on the website of the Ministry of Finance (http://www.minfin.ru/ru/). "
    http://www.ng.ru/news/490619.html
    1. z-exit
      +5
      14 January 2015 16: 19
      Your information is depressing, the reserve fund is mainly dollars, euros and some gold. Over the year, the exchange rate for these assets in rubles grew by almost 100%.
      Naturally, this should have led to a corresponding increase in Russian reserves, if we measure the value of these reserves in rubles, not dollars. You just give the numbers in rubles. Looking at your numbers, a big question arises: where did 30% of these reserves go after a year? The dollar for the year increased by 100% from 33 rubles to 66 rubles, the euro and gold did not lag behind, and you see reserves grew only 1,7 times or 70%, and this despite the fact that oil revenues, although they decreased, did not cancel and still keep piling up in reserves. Well, that is, the reserves should have grown for the year not by 70%, but by 100%, plus plus oil income (this is VERY not a small amount for the year). bully
    2. +3
      14 January 2015 16: 24
      This is just understandable. These funds are in foreign countries in foreign currency accounts, counted in rubles at the exchange rate - that’s the growth
  13. ivan.ru
    +1
    14 January 2015 15: 50
    Quote: alexey bukin
    One thing is clear: there are money for high salaries and pensions in the country, and not enough for low ones.

    well said!
  14. z-exit
    +8
    14 January 2015 15: 55
    The author is certainly a knowledgeable person, but, unfortunately, succumbed to the replication of a poppin tale that Soros allegedly collapsed the British pound. Of course there is such a legend. Yes, this legend was actively circulated by all the media of that time and now they like to remember it very much. However, do not stoop to the consumer level of this noodle. Everything was much simpler. There was no attack on the pound, but there was a previously known intention to bring down the British currency, and of course the desire of a narrow circle of individuals (insiders) to make money on this. By prior arrangement, these financial whales in advance sold a huge amount of British currency exactly before the hour H. Soros is only one of the participants in that circle, perhaps even the most insignificant as influential people are afraid of publicizing their actions. Soros is only one man to whom all the world media later decided to send their spotlights, so to speak, to divert the public’s eyes. You could even say that until that moment, few people knew about the existence of Soros. He just after this muddy story and became public.
    I think it makes little sense to tell what happened to the British currency after a handful of influential people, including the leadership of the Bank of England and Soros, too, made bets on the fall of the pound, I think everyone guessed it.
    As soon as financial whales made bets on the fall of the British pound, right there, as if by a wave of a magic wand, this happened. The leadership of the Bank of England, in order to please the bets with its awkward statement, brings down the British currency.
    By the way, I have an assumption that our prime minister Sergey Kiriyenko acted in some similar pattern in 1998 with his stupid statement. This awkward statement could also have been planned in advance by a narrow circle of people who have made relevant bets against the ruble. That's it.
    Naturally, no one will tell about such things in the media. On the contrary, these media will continue to litter the brains of people about certain Soros and so on and so on ... And all sorts of naive KamAZ workers, after having failed in the FOREX market and the other sub-slotron, as the author of this article, will be naive to believe all this and continue to massage and suck bones to these rumors.
  15. +1
    14 January 2015 15: 56
    Something I am more often visited by the thought that if 98 percent of all financiers, brokers, and the like are gathered in one place, armed with shovels and picks, give each person a pack of doshirak and a mug of water for a day, and make him dig a canal (between the Pacific Ocean and the Atlantic) then all humanity will win from this!
    1. 0
      14 January 2015 17: 08
      Absolutely, people with higher and secondary education built the Belomor Canal. As a result, about 11 thousand people died. Mostly engineering. We got a channel - which is practically not in operation today.
      Everyone should do their own thing, and not hammer the frozen ground with crowbars with 2 higher education.
      1. +2
        14 January 2015 17: 21
        Quote: D-Master
        As a result, about 11 thousand died

        If our liberals end their earthly path in this way, they will go there! And do not care that they will be engaged in landscaping permafrost! Here the goal is not the result of their work, but the "labor execution" of the country's enemies.
        P.S. In the USSR, speculation was punished by imprisonment, and there was execution for currency. There is common sense in this. For you need to live from your labors, and not from the cunning machinations of buying and selling. And so we have the whole country trading, and industry in the anus.
        1. 0
          15 January 2015 09: 49
          Thank you, Ingvar 72, that’s exactly what I meant!
  16. 0
    14 January 2015 15: 59
    Well, why in our government competent financiers do not prevail? They write on the Internet, publish their recommendations on the Internet, but for some reason they don’t go to work in the government! They are not invited there? Or do they themselves not go? I don’t understand anything!
    1. +1
      14 January 2015 16: 29
      Approximately the same reasons that the whole country knows how to play football except for those in the national team. If the government begins to recruit all those who write competent articles, then such a government will shine the country at the moment. I am not defending Naebulin, just others, those who could immediately get involved in the work, not yet. Unfortunately. They must be prepared, raised from the bottom, otherwise we will get an incompetent crowd of commanders and the result will be even worse. But why they are not prepared to be RUSSIAN, and not pro-American and pro-European experts - the question, perhaps, is already for the FSB and the President.
    2. The comment was deleted.
  17. +1
    14 January 2015 16: 00
    It is possible that the basis of the described behavior is some very deep, general principles. If a group of predators (for example, wolves, hyenas) feels the weakening of resistance on the part of the victim, then it intensifies the attack. This, perhaps, is repeated in social life. Gradual and continuous concessions, for example, to terrorists, only whet their appetites, as if confirming the weakness of the other side.

    This led me to think - this is what permanent concessions to the West in Ukraine led to, now we are suffering enormous losses in all areas. And Gazprom is similar to the same price rake coming.
  18. +2
    14 January 2015 16: 14
    Charts, smart words ...
    Brad.
    None of the "economists", but essentially crafty brain-beaters, will prove to me the opposite, that one can easily give ten greenbacks for the current ruble.
    And why not prove?
    Ask the Semites who arranged this money-making.
  19. Tribuns
    +2
    14 January 2015 16: 22
    Nabiullina and Ulyukaev play by the rules of NGOs and NGOs ...

    1. Nabiullina and Ulyukaev were trained in the USA, - graduates of the IVLP (International Visitor Leadership Program), organized by the US Department of State and aiming to enlighten participants about American values ​​and outlooks on life that are held by US citizens ... [https://twitter.com/usembru/status/321987486001795072twitter.com/USEmbRu/status

    / 321987486001795072]
    2. NGOs and NPOs are the Trojan horse of the West, primarily the USA, for Russia!
    And today it has become clear to many that the US rules the world precisely through NGOs and NPOs [for details see: http://delo.kg/index.php/2011-08-04-18-06-33/7136-mirom-ssha- pravyat-cherez-nko-

    i-npo]
  20. +2
    14 January 2015 16: 30
    It’s time to cleanse the government from all trained aristocrats
  21. 0
    14 January 2015 16: 41
    Why not apply here such a concept as "Stupidity or treason"

    And on these concepts our state was built. Therefore, that state does not apply it. am
  22. 0
    14 January 2015 16: 45
    Now, more than ever, there is an urgent need for a Stalinist apparatus

    There is such a party of NOD. Let not the Stalinist apparatus, but most importantly, the people!
  23. 0
    14 January 2015 17: 25
    Or maybe this is not a mistake? For example, the government also decided to speculate and buy back assets for nothing?
  24. 0
    14 January 2015 17: 43
    Quote: nils
    "... The Central Bank of Kazakhstan, unlike the Central Bank of Russia, has built its exchange rate policy more competently."

    But could Nabiullin and Ulyukaev, who were trained in the United States, send the graduates of the IVLP Program (International Visitor Leadership Program - International Guest Leadership Program) organized by the US Department of State and aiming to enlighten participants regarding American values ​​and outlooks on life that are held by US citizens for further TRAINING IN KAZAKHSTAN!

    Why not send them to the torture chamber ?! Let the executioner figure out who and how many of the acquaintances and relatives of these "stupid" ones earned during this period.
    And why are they still at the helm? Did you work well on the tatami?
  25. Tribuns
    +2
    14 January 2015 17: 51
    Everything in the economy remains the same, as Dmitry Medvedev said at the Gaidar Forum today that the country will not follow the path of a mobilization economy ...

    What mobilization economy can be under the dominance of the Gaidar-Yasinsky lobby in the economic bloc of the Government? The course in Russia to adhere to the principles of a liberal market economy remains!
    Was or remember 2013 when the 16th Gaidar Economic Forum took place on January 19-13 ... and Vladislav Feldblum's opinion on its results: “Dmitry Medvedev's speech was sustained in a typically liberal spirit. In his opinion, it is necessary to move from supporting certain industries to supporting individual companies that are integrated into international production chains. This statement, expressed at such a high level, causes bewilderment and concern. As a result of the implementation of this approach, the economic security of Russia will certainly suffer. Such immoderate integration of the Russian economy into the world at a time when the entire world economy is in the deepest crisis , will become another mechanism for the spread of the crisis to Russia. And most importantly, this approach leads to the complete de-industrialization of the country, to the complete loss of Russian technologies and, ultimately, to the complete destruction of domestic production of even vital goods. This approach actually perpetuates a dangerous dependence on zagra and condemns the country to the shameful role of the world beggar. What kind of defense capability of Russia can one think of with the approach proposed by Dmitry Medvedev? On the whole, his speech can hardly be regarded otherwise than as an attempt to defend the honor of the "liberal" uniform in the face of the obviously negative results of liberal politics ... "[http://www.portalus.ru/modules/politics/rus_readme.php?subaction=showfull&id=XNUMX

    89985658 & archive = & start_from = & ucat = &]
    It became or has remained in January 2014... the traditional VI Gaidar Forum has started in Moscow ... Medvedev stressed that the government fully approves the policy that the Central Bank is currently pursuing ... In particular, economic policy should be aimed not at supporting individual enterprises and industries, but at creating conditions for the arrival of private investment in them: "... I think that the policy of the Central Bank, which it is currently pursuing, is correct. We are not going to eat up foreign exchange reserves. And we have enough economic mechanisms to ensure the stability of the ruble. Moreover, even with a bad the conjuncture, we still have a positive balance of payments, which is the main fundamental factor for establishing a balanced rate of the national currency ... ".
    Conclusion: everything in the economy remains the same! What mobilization economy can be under the dominance of the Gaidar-Yasinsky lobby in the Government? The policy in Russia to adhere to the principles of a liberal market economy is maintained, as Dmitry Medvedev with his statement crossed out the hopes of many Russians for a transition to a mobilization economy ...
    And do liberals seriously believe that the raw material liberal economy of Russia will withstand the industrial liberal economy of the West? ... There is one more hope for ...
  26. Ivan 63
    0
    14 January 2015 18: 16
    “It would be very useful for the Central Bank of Russia to write down in its“ engineering memory ”all the disadvantages of a“ smooth ”devaluation in large letters and not step on the same rake in the future.” Our government, by analogy, write down: “Do not conduct any business or negotiations with outright boors (Ukrainians, mattress covers, etc.), until they apologize, or wash themselves in blood "
  27. +1
    14 January 2015 18: 21
    Of course, I may not understand something, but if there is a problem, there are traitors, then it can be solved, and there is someone. If this person himself appoints problem-makers and traitors and does not want to fight them, then he himself can be. And here they are talking about demagoguery about bad boyars and a good tsar, like the tsar knows everything. It would be fine if he came and these nabiulins and Medvedevs would be put in front of them (as they say in the Ruin), but HE PERSONALLY APPOINS them. Of course, I'm not paranoid, but the person himself sets enemies, covers them, and then yells about the 5th column, the West. Maybe this 5th column is a little higher and all this demagoguery to divert suspicions from myself, like I'm a patriot of all things. Then why are the liberals traitors in the Cabinet, but it's all 5 columns.
    Who's the loudest scream, hold the thief?
  28. 0
    14 January 2015 19: 01
    It seems to me that the budget of the Russian Federation needs to include an item of expenses for the physical elimination of such "graduates". It will be much cheaper, not even several times, but orders of magnitude. And in general, "oriental" people with a corrupt mentality (alas, that is, that is) should not be allowed close to positions where more than 1000 rubles are spent.
  29. andrey_lev
    +1
    14 January 2015 20: 06
    To be less objective in this matter, you need to operate with a large amount of data than the author uses. The state should not focus only on trade trends, there are many other issues that should be taken into account when making decisions. It would be better if they let go of the ruble right away, preventing the business from preparing for it, without calculating all the risks of the low exchange rate in the current conditions, without diversifying its foreign exchange reserves, etc. etc.?
    Such authors and commentators are sick of being clever. First, learn how to be an economist, work a couple of decades in this area, so that you become respected for professionalism, and then hite others.
  30. 0
    14 January 2015 20: 39
    Like it or not, the majority of Russia's population in the Central Bank see either fools or traitors.
    Well, or "two in one" - incompetent betrayal.
    Maybe there is a third option? I would like to hear opinions on this issue ...
  31. 0
    15 January 2015 09: 07
    That's right, that's right - but! only for those who are interested in currency speculation! Currency, i.e. banknotes - should not be a product that can be bought and sold; money is the conditional equivalent of living labor!
    Moving away from this position, we get "money trading", which is what banks do: a shop that sells money! smacks of absurdity, no?
    ... After the occupation of Japan by the Americans and the imposition of American economic models there, the Japanese for a long time could not understand "simple American truths": for example, "money makes money!" The "dumb" Japanese were convinced and objected - no, people make money! Time passed - they convinced them ... and the Japanese became really smart "well, stupid ...", with all the consequences: eternal inflation, sudden but predictable crises, and all that accompanying the American economic model ...
    Give it up - but at least the dollar, the price of which is tied either to oil, or to gold, or to the left leg of Dupont ... and you will be surprised, and you will see! ... "how the state is getting richer, and why gold is not needed to him when a simple product has "...
    ... And the example of KamAZ is not even an example, but the totality of mistakes made by marketers, multiplied by the greed of the local - KamAZ leadership; I live, work here and I know all this firsthand, but oh-oh-so-right! the reasons for the drop in sales of dump trucks were completely different in another;

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