Headache of Ukraine or the question of Russian gas




The tensions of Ukraine and Russia in the gas sphere are increasingly heating up. If the question of a gas contract for Russia lies in super-profits, transit opportunities and strengthening geopolitical influence, then for Ukraine it becomes a question of the country's economic survival and preservation of its sovereignty.

The continuation of the gas dispute and the prospects for Ukraine joining the Customs Union

The main directions of relations between Russia and Ukraine are connected with the gas dispute and the entry of Ukraine into the Customs Union. The last agreement on the supply of Russian gas to Ukraine was signed in 2009 by Yulia Tymoshenko after a lengthy dispute between the parties, which turned to interruption of supply. A year after the conclusion of the agreement, Tymoshenko lost her post and is now under arrest, awaiting trial and continuing to assert that the deal did not cause material damage to Ukraine.

The gas dispute has been going on for one and a half years and still does not find a solution. Ukraine continues to assert that the gas supply agreement is simply predatory, and requires that Germany pay the price (200 less dollars), minus transportation costs and discount 100 dollars for 1000 cubic meters, due to Kharkiv agreements. Viktor Yanukovych claims that Ukraine should not make concessions, as it would have done if it had demanded a price reduction. It is only about establishing a reasonable price paid by European countries. At the same time, the president of Ukraine is even ready to appeal to an international court, since he is convinced that Tymoshenko signed a contract for the supply of gas under pressure from Russia.

So, the Ukrainian government claims that today for Ukraine gas is more expensive than for Germany. This thesis is actively reproduced by the Prime Minister of Ukraine Mykola Azarov. On the Day of Knowledge, Viktor Yanukovych said that his favorite school subject was mathematics. But Mr. Azarov, apparently, preferred other subjects. The fact is that in the third quarter of 2011, Russian gas for Ukraine costs 354 dollars per thousand cubic meters, and gas for Germany - 405 dollars. Yes, there is the cost of transit through Ukraine, Slovakia and the Czech Republic, but even if you remove the transit component, it still turns out that gas for Germany costs almost 20 dollars more than for Ukraine. Moreover, if we apply the principle of netback, the gas would be more expensive than they pay for it now under the 2009 agreement of the year. Obviously, Mr. Azarov forgets that Russia has already gone for a discount (the so-called Kharkov), which gives Ukraine a bonus in 100 dollars per thousand cubic meters. This discount is, it has not been canceled. It is valid for the entire duration of the 2009 contract of the year. Another thing, if the contract will be amended. But while this discount is applied, it is very, very incorrect to say that gas is more expensive in Ukraine than in Germany.

Konstantin Simonov, Director General of the National Energy Security Fund, http://expert.ru/2011/09/7/pyat-mifov-o-rossijsko-ukrainskih-otnosheniyah/


On the question of joining the Customs Union, Yanukovych promises that a decision will be made in a couple of years, when it will be clear how the Customs Union will work and how relations will develop within it when member countries join the WTO.

The informal meeting of the two presidents in Sochi did not bring any results. It is difficult to understand why Yanukovych even came to this meeting. After all, before that, Medvedev refused to come to Sevastopol, because, according to him, Ukraine promised its participation in the Customs Union, but in fact does not want to provide any solution. So a breakthrough in relations between Russia and Ukraine, about which the authorities of both countries had recently broadcast, seems increasingly distant.

Russia or the West - where Ukraine

If we get deeper into the essence of the issue of Russian-Ukrainian relations, we can see that the main figure from Russia is not Dmitry Medvedev, but Vladimir Putin. But with him, something Yanukovych and can not improve relations. Does not want the president of Ukraine to become the "governor of the Ukraine". Even despite the support that Russia offered to provide. While the IMF offered Ukraine a loan of 16 billion for five years under 3,5%, the Russian offer was a dollar loan of 15 billion for ten years under 3,8%. This amount would allow Yanukovych to fulfill his election promises, raising the salaries of state employees by 20-30% and bringing the level of the minimum pension to 1000 UAH. The only condition that Ukraine needed was to turn away from the West.

The West for the President of Ukraine is an opportunity not to fall under the millstones of the Kremlin. At the same time, the fulfillment of all the requirements of the IRF, Brussels and Washington can make Ukraine a democratic country, but will there be room for a single Viktor Yanukovych in it? And will the European Union want to take into its ranks a country where corruption doubles in a year, where the police and prosecutors are subjected to political repression? In the EU countries, the government is forced to listen more to public opinion. And the word "Ukraine" in the European press flashed more often only during the Orange Revolution. If the attempt to get into the European Union fails, Yanukovych will only have to surrender Ukraine to Russia and really become the Little Russian governor.

Ukraine can not give the pipe, because it will lead to the loss of sovereignty. Perhaps this is the most important myth created around the Ukrainian CTA. If it were not there, Russia could have entered the management of the Ukrainian gas transportation system (GTS). It would not be necessary to implement the scenario of the merger of Gazprom and Naftogaz. The importance of such an event is easy to explain: the current behavior of Ukraine proves that there can be no long-term relationship with it. Here we have a contract for 10 years, but less than three years, as Ukraine begins to throw tricks. How can you sit at the negotiating table again and again, if the contract is so openly neglected? But if you control the property, it's completely different история. Russia is ready to give price discounts in exchange for entering the management of the CTA, this is a reasonable option. Where Ukraine’s conviction comes from, that if it gives up the pipe, the country collapses, it’s not at all clear. Moreover, there are many examples in the world of how companies from other countries gain control over gas pipeline systems and these countries do not disappear. There is an example of Belarus, although there has not yet been a complete incorporation of Gazprom into Beltransgaz. There are examples of European - say, the merger of Gaz de France with the Belgian Suez. Now it is a single company, Gaz de France Suez, which dominates the Belgian market, but this has not led to the disappearance of Belgium as a country. By the way, the example of Belgium is also curious by the fact that, like Ukraine, this country is gnawed by an internal ethnic contradiction. Perhaps this problem is much more relevant and important for the state than the loss of the sole management of the GTS.

Konstantin Simonov, Director General of the National Energy Security Fund, http://expert.ru/2011/09/7/pyat-mifov-o-rossijsko-ukrainskih-otnosheniyah/


Will the international court be the result of relations between Russia and Ukraine in the gas sector?

In the meantime, the gas dispute is increasingly approaching an international court. Ukraine is preparing the documents. At first, Prime Minister Azarov spoke about this, then Yanukovych himself said that he was considering the court as the last instance for the dispute that has been underway for a year and a half. The same Azov told the public that the company "Naftogaz of Ukraine" will be divided into several separate structures. Apparently, this is an attempt to abandon the 2009 agreements of the year. Although what passed with Khodorkovsky and Menatep is unlikely to pass at the present time. In addition, the Prime Minister of Ukraine speaks of the largest gas fields in Europe, after Poland, which Russia can join in developing. However, specific locations and methods for estimating the volume are not specified.

Sergey Kupriyanov, the official representative of Gazprom, recalled those paragraphs in the contract, which said that in the event of the restructuring of Naftogaz, the successors should be provided with all the rights and obligations under the contract. Alexey Miller, head of Gazprom’s management, said that Naftogaz would cease to exist, but only as part of Gazprom.

As for the trial of Yulia Tymoshenko, her guilt is proven, at least the Prosecutor General Viktor Pshonka thinks so. According to him, the evidence obtained by the investigation is confirmed at the trial. Many witnesses say that pressure from Russia when signing the gas contract Tymoshenko took place. If the court’s decision on Tymoshenko’s guilt is positive, Ukraine will have a good argument to appeal to the Stockholm Arbitration Court.

It is difficult to agree with the opinion of individual publications that Putin is defending his “agent of influence” in the person of Yulia Tymoshenko. Since there is a more weighty reason for which Russia is concerned in the light of the current situation in Ukraine. This is all about the same gas supply contract concluded in 2009.
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  1. Foamas 8 September 2011 09: 44 New
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    I remember Yushchenko for the "famine" - $ 1 trillion counted, it's time to "answer for the bazaar."
    1. Asmoday 8 September 2011 10: 11 New
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      who did he count it? Russia? If my memory serves me during the so-called "famine", the territory of western Ukraine lay under Poland. Well, let all claims be presented to her. But the fact that in the same years and in the European part of Russia people were starving at normal?
      1. slan
        slan 8 September 2011 20: 24 New
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        So, didn’t you know that in the so-called New Russia during the cold season tragically killed more than a trillion proud ukrov from the genocide, and Muscovites settled these fertile lands with Russian-speaking invaders?
      2. Superduck
        Superduck 8 September 2011 21: 08 New
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        Quote: Asmoday
        If my memory serves me during the so-called "famine", the territory of western Ukraine lay under Poland.

        And there nobody was starving
        1. slan
          slan 8 September 2011 21: 22 New
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          It’s no wonder to get it from the side - the Western Tolitsyganytolirumynytolimoldavans are so worried about the Russian-speaking regions, as if they themselves had eaten the villagers from starvation.
          1. Superduck
            Superduck 8 September 2011 22: 16 New
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            Do not be ironic about this, please, you probably never heard eyewitnesses face to face. Turned such horror into a cheap farce, both of them, I hope for such an occasion a final judgment exists.
            1. slan
              slan 8 September 2011 22: 36 New
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              I heard, not face to face, but, obviously, nothing out of the ordinary happened for those years. The usual demonstration of the simplest laws of human psychology - under the influence of a public bacchanalia of relishing grief, among eyewitnesses it fills all the space provided by "grateful listeners".
              My grandfather, he probably lost count of how many relatives died in the 30s from starvation and disease. They had a standard Russian large dispossessed family, and three survived. Only no one relishes this among the Russians, and to figure it out, the Russian people undoubtedly carried more victims at all times.
              And do you really not understand that about the cannibalism of your ancestors with healthy arms and legs among the fields and rivers, even if someone took part of the harvest, they simply humiliate you, and not the bloody tyrants and Russian occupiers.
              1. Superduck
                Superduck 8 September 2011 22: 58 New
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                Quote: slan
                And do you really not understand that about the cannibalism of your ancestors with healthy arms and legs among fields and rivers

                I hope that you did not want to say something that seemed to me about my ancestors.

                Personally, I do not understand one thing in this matter: Why is this memory worse than the memory of the victims of the famine in Leningrad on the 42nd.
                Sometimes it seems to me that the question is only in the ideology and conception of the perception of Stalin and the USSR in the eyes of the younger generation. I certainly do not support the holding of gala dinners in honor of the anniversary of the Holodomor and, in general, excessive involvement in this issue of politics. However, what prevents me from breaking my neck to anyone who claims that my relatives living both in the RSFSR and in the Ukrainian SSR were apparently “Svidomo” or Bendera in general because they were starving in 32-33 years and observed, including cases of cannibalism, about which they told me?
                1. slan
                  slan 8 September 2011 23: 40 New
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                  Quote: SuperDuck
                  Personally, I do not understand one thing in this matter: Why is this memory worse than the memory of the victims of the famine in Leningrad on the 42nd

                  That's it! But Petersburgers do not speculate on this. And there was a millionth city, much harder to feed, you see. I don’t know what it seemed to you there, but I’m sure that your relatives didn’t eat human meat in the 30s. And if you nevertheless understand the stories about such cases, then a lot will become clear, you won’t believe it, but 99% of such eyewitness accounts show that they describe one egregious case in a hundred thousand frets, human psychology is not very simple. Again, it’s stupid to blame Stalin for 32 years; at that time he didn’t have any real power. And there was a famine, but there was no Great and Terrible Holodomor. And the fact of the matter is that starving people, just basically, are never “Svidomo” or Bendera. And do not threaten the cervical vertebrae, kindergarten right, maybe you have an uncle karate?
                  1. Superduck
                    Superduck 9 September 2011 22: 30 New
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                    Quote: slan
                    But Petersburgers do not speculate on this.

                    And where am I speculating? They talked more about the famine of Leningraders at school (I studied at the school under the USSR) than about the Battle of Stalingrad, but about the famine of the 33rd 2 paragraphs, and about the 47th without any mention. Does this mean that speculated by hunger in Leningrad? Well, it is entirely possible to speculate that they were speculating in order, for example, to explain which Köneksberg was taken from the Germans.
                    Quote: slan
                    Again, it’s stupid to blame Stalin for 32 years; at that time he didn’t have any real power.

                    Well, hardly you should tell me who to blame and who not, for me the question of who is to blame is in last place. The system is to blame for me, which role in the Stalin system is also very obvious to me, I think for you too. If the head of the country does not give criminal orders personally, this does not relieve him of responsibility for what is happening in his country. You modest have forgiven the death of your relatives to the altar of the class struggle, but I myself will decide on this issue.
                    Quote: slan
                    You will not believe it, but in 99% of such evidence of "eyewitnesses" it turns out that they describe one egregious case in a hundred thousand frets, human psychology is not very simple.

                    Oh just do not need social behavioral theories, we are not at a lecture. And then I will start to prove that you have the Helsinki syndrome to Stalin.
                    I heard with my own ears the stories of my grandmother about a case of cannibalism in a neighboring yard when the children consumed a bouillon from their own sister, I see no reason not to believe at least one word. And by the way, she did not live in the USSR, but in the RSFSR and told in the late 80s. Is that enough for you? And don’t write me down in “those of someone”, I’m not a liberal, not an American spy, not a nationalist, not a fascist and not a fan of Yushchenko, so I’m starting to lie because of this.
                    1. slan
                      slan 9 September 2011 23: 21 New
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                      Quote: SuperDuck
                      And where am I speculating?

                      Specifically, you are not.
                      Quote: SuperDuck
                      They talked more about the hunger of Leningraders at school (I studied at the school under the USSR)

                      Oh, oh)) Compare horseradish with carrots. I have never heard a word that the Germans owed to one of the Petersburgers Volkswagen on this “fair” price and other ravings.
                      Quote: SuperDuck
                      The system is to blame for me

                      Yes, for God's sake, but you mentioned Stalin, and not a system, decide already.
                      Quote: SuperDuck
                      And then I will start to prove that you have Helsinki syndrome

                      Yes, get started. Why only ...
                      Quote: SuperDuck
                      my grandmother about a case of cannibalism in a neighboring yard when the children consumed a bouillon from their own sister

                      I see .. I’m silent.
                      1. Superduck
                        Superduck 10 September 2011 00: 05 New
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                        Quote: slan
                        I have never heard a word that the Germans owed to one of the Petersburgers Volkswagen on this “fair” price and other ravings.

                        Apparently, you tend to the fact that the state of Ukraine requested compensation from the Russian Federation as the legal successor of the USSR compensation in this regard? Remind me plz about such a fact, otherwise I at 35 became a memory ..
                        Sami then horseradish with radish not beguiled?
                      2. slan
                        slan 10 September 2011 00: 26 New
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                        And I wrote about the "state of Ukraine" ?!
                        However, I will not be at all surprised if Ukraine draws it up on the state. level.
                        Leave this topic, as I understand it, it is painful for you.
                        All nations were starving, everyone! All peoples have representatives with a weak psyche and morality. A system beyond thousands of kilometers is all the more powerful to artificially create hunger in rural areas and all the more to force people to do what is taboo for them. No one is able to humiliate a person, unless he himself is humbled.
    2. ballian
      ballian 9 September 2011 10: 10 New
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      Are you ignorant?
      That is why there was no Holodomor in Western Ukraine - for the Ukrainians, the Communists were worse than the Poles.
  2. His
    His 9 September 2011 22: 35 New
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    There will be no free gas for you, take it in the European Union, they are waiting for you there
  • Cvetluy 8 September 2011 10: 58 New
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    The oligarchs under Yanukovych can’t agree with Putin’s oligarchs because of this, all the cheese is boron, and ordinary citizens always suffer am
  • Banshee 8 September 2011 11: 32 New
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    Outlined very much even.
    Really, what kind of kindergarten? And here "theirs" and "our" oligarchs?
    Two countries have signed an agreement on gas supply and transit for 10 years. Set prices. Then it is necessary to take and perform, and not to arrange dances around the valve.
    Already annoying, every year the same thing. Well, it is clear that except from the pipe and the sale of weapons, Ukraine has no place to take much money, but you must have a conscience, in the end ...
    One might think that there is nothing more than a pipe between the two countries.
  • Denis 8 September 2011 16: 30 New
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    Yes, it's all "pull the scream" or according to the dictionary of feni s3,14zdit under the guise, that is. understand the noise and when distracted fill your "orphan" bags
  • montemor 9 September 2011 00: 04 New
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    Tymoshenko signed contracts for the benefit of her beloved, and for a long time they all did not care about the country and the people. Guess, with whom did you roll back the kickbacks?
  • ytqnhfk
    ytqnhfk 9 September 2011 09: 30 New
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    What kind of kickbacks? Tired of reading some assumptions while there is no evidence! But we will say all one thing, like market women just to fuck!
  • raf
    raf 9 September 2011 14: 19 New
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    Immediately make a reservation, I have not read the article and I will not read it! And in general, I won’t read anything more about the pipe !! And I will not comment !!! I got this pipe! No, I don’t suffer from megalomania, and I understand perfectly well that my “not commenting” will not change anything! I just can’t read how Ukraine and Russia are biting, and I don’t want to participate in this!
    1. makrus
      makrus 9 September 2011 15: 22 New
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      hold plus, also got this topic. Today, Vladimir Putin opened a gas pipeline on Russky Island. Housing and utilities rates may go down. Although if they grow up I’m not very upset. Porodox however.
    2. His
      His 9 September 2011 23: 39 New
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      And I would read. Though I will know when the war will begin, for which we are fighting.
  • makrus
    makrus 10 September 2011 00: 03 New
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    "For the millions of Putin." So people will attack and will raise. wink