George Soros on Ukraine and Russia: the West made a number of strategic miscalculations
In the influential edition Financial Times Christian Oliver’s Brussels report, published on the basis of an interview with financier George Soros.
In an interview with the Financial Times, the billionaire investor accused Western leaders of a “dangerous” reappraisal of the sanctions strategy worked out against Russia. According to him, the crisis creates a "mortal danger" for the eurozone.
The financier believes that European leaders do not understand at all that Ukraine is not “just another country” that needs to be “treated” with financial help. This is a special case. The crisis on the eastern border of the EU is a great danger for the European economy. It is even a question of the survival of the EU, and it is much more acute than, for example, the Greek financial crisis.
Mr. Soros is confident that because of the fall in oil prices, the sanctions against Moscow had a much deeper impact than Western leaders could have imagined. According to Soros, the coming default of Russia will not be surprised.
“Sanctions against Russia will increase deflationary and crisis pressure, which has already been felt [in Europe], and now it has become apparent,” the financial guru noted.
“The default [of Russia] will deal a severe blow to European banks cooperating with Russia,” he added.
According to Soros, the financial crisis in Russia is both an economic and strategic threat to Europe, since with the deterioration of the economic situation, Moscow’s policy is likely to become even more nationalistic and aggressive.
Speaking of strategic miscalculations of the West. Soros nonetheless stressed that he did not at all call for the relaxation of sanctions. According to him, the sanctions have become a "necessary evil" for the Kremlin to withdraw its troops from Ukraine.
And yet the financier believes that the US and the EU made a big mistake. Sanctions should be combined with major financial assistance for Ukraine.
How much money did Kiev have to give? According to the calculations of the financier, this is approximately 50 billion dollars. And the decision on helping Ukraine should be made no later than the first quarter of 2015.
84, a year-old financier, said that Europe should “wake up” and realize that the Russian attack was not Ukraine, but all of Europe. “Assistance to Ukraine should be considered in the context of a protective measure of European countries,” he said.
According to him, the United States and Europe intend to avoid war, but if they do not combine sanctions with the support of Ukraine, they may well get this war.
Soros was not used to throwing words. He prepared a whole report containing detailed proposals about the amount of 50 billion dollars, which Kiev should give to international organizations, including the International Monetary Fund. The European Union is also among those who skins for Kiev. (It is logical, because Kiev is torn in the EU.)
The financier is convinced that money for Ukraine is the only way that Europe can not only resist the “nationalist expansion of Moscow”, but also save Ukraine from bankruptcy. If this is not done, then Kiev will be bankrupt. As a result, supporters of the “hard line” in Russia will become stronger.
And this is how Soros sees the outcome of his fifty-billion-dollar strategy: "Let's hope that Russian problems and Ukrainian progress will lead President Vladimir Putin to the idea of abandoning attempts to destabilize Ukraine as unsuccessful."
However, it seems, nobody listens to the old financier. EU leaders do not want to allocate additional funds to Kiev, especially large funds. Western states want evidence of reforms in Ukraine. Last month, European officials ignored the very idea of supporting this country, when the IMF identified a financial deficit in Ukraine in the amount of 15 billion dollars.
Soros sees here a lack of understanding by Western leaders of the “ambitions of Russia”. In his opinion, the Kremlin wants to undermine the European Union itself, supporting relevant politicians who are outside the sanctions coalition, and at the same time using the policy of exporting gas to the political field, pitting European countries against each other. “The EU itself will disintegrate,” summed up Soros. He added: "Russia offers an alternative view of the world - from a position of strength, not the rule of law."
However, the economic salvation of Ukraine, according to the financier, would allow to change Russian policy. If the bankruptcy of Ukraine would strengthen the power of hardliners, the “economic revival” in the country, organized with the assistance of the US and the EU, would stimulate the rise of pro-Western opposition in Russia.
As for investments in the economy of Ukraine, Soros is sure: the time has come for them.
Western companies that are looking for promising areas for investment, could pay attention to the energy networks and the agricultural sector. Ukraine is the former breadbasket of the Soviet Union, the financier reminds. The most profitable business would be to increase the efficiency of power plants and heating networks in the country, which are 10 times more energy intensive than the average in OECD countries.
Thus, we add from myself, the question is in money. To turn Ukraine into an exemplary showcase of democracy, the West needs only fifty billion. However, the old Soros forgets that even the one billion this West allocates to the “nezalezhnoy” with a squeak and a crash. In addition, the European Union is skeptical of the Ukrainian “reforms”; this is clearly seen from the statements of European bureaucrats and politicians. Gone are the days when the West could afford such generous contributions to the cause of democratization.
As for the possible collapse of the European Union, about which Soros said, modern politicians, whose popularity is growing rapidly (for example, Marine Le Pen), have nothing against it. The European Union began to smell heavily rotten and turned into a frankly American project, managed locally by political puppets. We should not forget that sanctions against Russia are an American idea, imposed on Europe under overseas pressure.
- especially for topwar.ru
Information