Problems of Belarus

Problems of BelarusBelarusian internal crisis continues. Minsk, which in May devalued its currency by 36%, is currently forced to consider the possibility of another devaluation by 15% in order to lower the exchange rate and take control of the crisis of the balance of payments. The Belarusian gold and foreign exchange reserves in August declined by 22%, and the citizens of the country are lining up at the official currency exchange offices.


The National Bank of the Republic of Belarus (RB) 1 September increased the refinancing rate to 27% (this is already the 8-th increase this year), and from August 17 the refinancing rate increased from 20% to 22% per annum. For the first time in 2011, it was raised from 16 in March from 10,5% to 12% per annum. The previous value of the refinancing rate existed since 15 September 2010. In the past, 2010, the NB of Belarus, 6 once again lowered the refinancing rate, each time by 0,5%. Inflation in the Republic of Belarus in the period from January to July, 2011, amounted to 41%.

In August, Belarusian banks began to actively transfer their clients, who have loans in rubles of the Republic of Belarus, from a fixed rate to the formula “refinancing rate plus a fixed interest”. Therefore, a number of clients even with the current refinancing rate increased the cost of a loan, for example, from 11% per annum to 31%, and with a new refinancing rate it will grow to 36% per annum.

Alexander Lukashenko had to let the Belarusian ruble go to “free swimming”, because there are no resources to support his course. From mid-September, the exchange rate of the Belarusian ruble will be determined at the exchange trades, and not by the National Bank of the Republic of Belarus, as has been done so far. As a result, Belarus is facing hyperinflation. The President of the Republic of Belarus A. Lukashenko made a real sensation, saying: “Anyone who wants to buy currency, from which our population already moans, especially in Minsk, will be given such an opportunity.”

Technically, the transition to the market quotation of the Belarusian ruble will be held in mid-September. An additional trading session will be opened on the currency exchange, during which it will be free to buy and sell US dollars, euros, Russian rubles and other currencies. At the same time, the main trading session will be saved, but foreign currencies will be used only for transactions that involve payment for electricity supplied to the state, natural gas "and other urgent payments". An additional session of the auction should help to identify the real exchange rate of the Belarusian ruble. All exchange offices of Belarusian banks after the opening of an additional session of trading will be required to conduct a free sale of foreign currency at market rates, Lukashenko said.

The Belarusian president expressed confidence that the authorities of the country will be able to stabilize the currency market of the Republic of Belarus in a rather short period of time - one and a half - two months. After this, the course will be consolidated, as in other states that have experienced a similar reform. Lukashenko promised to provide this process. In addition, he warned fellow citizens about the unreliability of the dollar and the euro, hinting about the crisis situation in the US and EU countries.

The President of the Republic of Belarus promised not to freeze bank deposits of citizens. At the same time he spoke about the measures to be taken to stabilize the situation: he called on supervisory authorities to restore order in the financial system of the country, instructed the head of the KGB and the heads of other law enforcement agencies to establish tight control over the banking system. He urged the business of the country to “lend” to the state, to direct additional revenues related to the “excessive price increase” to the needs of the poor, to social protection measures. “Social responsibility of business is not a slogan: it should be a guide to action,” A. Lukashenko said. He promised to further increase social support to the needy segments of the population of the Republic of Belarus.

The problem of buying food by citizens of Russia

Belarus is experiencing a real “invasion” of visiting Russian citizens buying up cheap Belarusian meat and other food and industrial goods. Not only Russians, but also Belarusians are taking part in this, exporting food and manufactured goods to Russia, since there they are more expensive.

Belarusian bloggers already call visitors “bagmen”. Citizens of the Russian Federation are literally trailers taking out food products, clothing and equipment. Some clothes and shoes are bought, even without measuring, in several sets.

The scheme of buying up meat is quite simple: the meat is bought up from citizens and farmers in small batches, then it is delivered to the transshipment base, loaded and uncontrolledly exported outside Belarus. Then it turns out to be in some Moscow region, where it is cheaper to sell 40-60 rubles from a car on a machine than on a store. Both Russian and Belarusian businessmen are engaged in this business. The “sausage” trains of the Soviet deficit were revived - the Belarusian “bagmen” brought to Moscow to sell cheese and sausage, usually on spontaneous markets. For the Belarusian population, the situation is fraught with an increase in domestic prices for meat products (they are already rising) and a shortage of products, since they are more profitable to export to the Russian Federation.

Minsk virtually cannot fight with the export of goods. All sorts of posts and bans remained in the past, when Belarus had not yet entered the Customs Union. Now - this is impossible to do. Goods in the field of new integration association have the right to move freely. Experts have warned about this before: the Belarusian and Russian economies operate according to different rules and the national economy of the Republic of Belarus is more vulnerable to market relations.

The Belarusian authorities are talking about temporary difficulties, believing that the crisis in the Republic of Belarus is "a consequence of a new round of negative impact of the global financial and economic crisis." In addition, in their opinion, Minsk is facing a large-scale information-psychological and ideological war to discredit the country's political leadership and the Belarusian model of socio-economic development. It is attended by foreign oligarchs and the media controlled by them.
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  1. Foamas 7 September 2011 08: 59 New
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    Integration into the union state began successfully, the customs union shows its effectiveness for the development of business, and the Belarusian authorities delayed the end for so long. A great opportunity to ensure control over the transport and energy complex and the banking sector from Moscow.
    1. His
      His 7 September 2011 21: 46 New
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      Belarus without Russia is North Korea number two. Russia as always saves
  2. Sanzyro
    Sanzyro 7 September 2011 10: 21 New
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    The crisis in Belarus is screaming more in Russia ...
  3. Igor Vladimirovich
    Igor Vladimirovich 7 September 2011 10: 33 New
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    It looks like the Belarusian fairy tale ends. It's a pity.
    1. Marat
      Marat 7 September 2011 21: 50 New
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      Yes, I agree, sorry Belarusians and Old Man! We already discussed under another article - I don’t remember with whom

      The island of socialism will be absorbed by the oligarchs.

      But on the other hand - we cannot wait for the Communists to come to power in Russia and Kazakhstan and press the oligarchs - if the integration process has begun, I still welcome it. I am sure that the unification of 3- and preferably 4 republics is a blessing. And we will deal with the oligarchs all together already.
  4. Splin
    Splin 7 September 2011 11: 18 New
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    Yes, it’s true that the consequences of the crisis are less than the Kremlin’s mouthpiece of RTR screams, but after all, products are exported is a fact. Those who came from Belorussians this summer confirm this. There is a way out. Or equalize prices with Russian and increase salary + another wave of crisis, or close the border for goods. So it’s not so “sweet” in the Customs Union as they sing to Ukraine. In this country, products are also much cheaper. Yes, everything is cheaper !, because salaries are lower, although the purchasing power is the same.
    1. slan
      slan 7 September 2011 18: 46 New
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      What does it mean to raise prices and salaries?)) About purchasing power, too, from the same opera, the ranting of a rural economist)) So maybe Ethiopia will be equated in terms of living with the Russian Federation? Local cakes and prostitutes are also cheaper there. And local cars, electronics, gold, and finally, everything local is independent?)) Do not comfort your flaw. To Belarus, you-ukram as a cancer before the European Union.
      1. Splin
        Splin 7 September 2011 19: 00 New
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        As for the European Union, it is closer than it seems in Russia. I was in many countries, sometimes on an internship, then on business trips, once my wife lured me to rest. Therefore, I can compare. And insults like "himself a fool" are best left for other sites. In my opinion, I am going to argue convincingly and intellectually, rather than discuss humiliating citizenship or nationality.
        1. slan
          slan 7 September 2011 19: 23 New
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          Quote: Splin
          In my opinion, I'm going to argue convincingly and intellectually

          Sorry, but you didn’t succeed.
          In general, already tired of it with its complexity. Prove that Ukraine is closer to the Russian Federation than to Moldova and Tajikistan with real economic indicators, rather than ranting about "not everything is so sweet in the customs union" as "in Ukraine, I even laid tiles in Moscow in Poland, I can compare as an expert "
          1. Splin
            Splin 7 September 2011 19: 38 New
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            Evidently good. Figures please .. The level of export to the West is 48%, to the East 52%, while Russia accounts for about 70% of this flow, i.e. about 30% of total exports. The West has invested 15 billion over the past 70 years. dollars to Ukraine, Russia 8 billion. Almost 10 times, moreover, due to the gas contract, Ukraine lost 5 billion dollars. This is 15% of GDP. Quite substantial. Exports to Russia for 10 years decreased by 7 times. Import to the West increased by 3. The consumer basket of a Ukrainian with an equal amount of goods is almost 40% lower in prices of bucks.
            PSA you need to work at home, maybe then there will be a sense!
            1. slan
              slan 7 September 2011 21: 29 New
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              What did you try to prove to yourself?)) That the gap in the standard of living in Ukraine and the leading countries of the former USSR has grown in recent years and continues to grow due to the loss by Ukraine of sales markets in which its high value-added products could be competitive? Congratulations, the cost of a domestic basket of tortillas and eggs of domestic producers in Albania is even lower, but soon you will catch up. Indeed, one must work, not envy the neighbors, clumsily and stupidly trying to appear "no worse than others."
              1. Splin
                Splin 8 September 2011 05: 07 New
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                There is nothing to evaluate everything by food. Here is an example of a 10-vaaz model, which is assembled from components in Cherkasy, sold for 500 bucks cheaper than a fitting one from Cherkessk. Although the duty is zero. Your Solaris, which is collected in St. Petersburg, is sold as an Accent at prices below Russian. ZAZ Chance (Daewoo Lanos) - the cheapest and unpretentious foreign car in Russia costs a ton more bucks. And so in everything. Electronics assembled in Ukraine and Belarus are much cheaper than Russian. Compared to the USSR, the standard of living has risen even everywhere in three countries. Ancestors bought a color TV or a refrigerator at 10-15 years old - it was a holiday. And the grub and utilities around the world are growing in price.
  5. Patriot
    Patriot 7 September 2011 11: 47 New
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    People. But tell me. Personally, I have not yet understood for myself. Who needs a union state and the same customs union, Russia or Belarus?
    And, I would go to the Temple in place of the people of Belarus and light candles for Lukashenko’s health. Otherwise, American analogs of medveputes will land to them, they will sell and hand out the whole country, they will kill industry and agriculture, spoil the education of medicine, and feed the whole nation with crap.
    But only after that the situation they will have in theory will be EVEN WORSE. For they have neither oil nor gas.
    And about the Belarusian fairy tale ... If you are a strong country and want to be friends with you, YOU NEED TO PAY. So we pay low prices for resources.
    1. Splin
      Splin 7 September 2011 11: 59 New
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      I agree that Belarus has almost no way out except economic friendship with Russia. Its products (by the way very high quality) almost everywhere closed the market. Naturally, Americans wouldn’t drop the businessmen’s landing there, but it’s free to strangle the economy of the Republic of Belarus. Belorussia focused on the CIS countries. But Russia and Ukraine (the largest importers of white goods) almost completely switched to alternative products of their own production. Ukraine also imports Chinese counterparts, which are no worse in quality but one third cheaper than their own.
      1. Insurgent
        Insurgent 7 September 2011 20: 40 New
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        Don't laugh what goods of own production Belarus produced as many tractors as the former whole CIS
        1. Splin
          Splin 7 September 2011 20: 50 New
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          Kharkov Tractor is the largest plant in Europe. Yes, now it releases a little small, but the process is ongoing. Now it is beneficial for the Ukrainian villager to buy western used cars, rather than new Kharkov or Belarusian ones. And besides Belazov, Russia and Ukraine produce almost everything themselves and increase production volumes.
  6. lokdok
    lokdok 7 September 2011 12: 23 New
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    Or equalize prices with Russian and increase salary + another wave of crisis, or close the border for goods. So it’s not so “sweet” in the Customs Union as they sing to Ukraine. In this country, products are also much cheaper. Yes, everything is cheaper !, because salaries are lower, although the purchasing power is the same.

    If so, then why was the devaluation of bel. ruble? On the contrary, it was necessary to strengthen a little.
    The problem is that Belarusians want to buy not only domestic goods, but also imported ones. And in this situation, the import of Belarus begins to exceed exports.
    1. Splin
      Splin 7 September 2011 12: 47 New
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      This is an elementary economy with the fall of the Belarusian “Bunny”. Firstly. The Belarusian ruble was not protected by gold or foreign exchange reserves as we would like at that rate. The second reason was already mentioned here but not voiced. The lower the exchange rate of the domestic currency, the more competitive the product. China, however, does not denominate its currency, since the West requires it. The real yuan rate is almost one and a half times higher. And in Japan, the yen rose several points, so there was panic on the stock exchange
  7. sergant89 7 September 2011 12: 32 New
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    http://news.rambler.ru/11010507/
    Kremlin refused to defend Old Man
    YTPO.ru, 2 hours ago, 07 Sep 2011, 10: 22

    Once again, the Belarusian president Alexander Lukashenko was pulled in the Kremlin. The discontent of the Russian leadership was caused by the Old Man during his meeting with the Secretary General of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) Nikolai Bordyuzha.

    The talks between Lukashenko and Bordyuzha took place on August 30 in Minsk. Among other issues, the President and Secretary General discussed the possibility of using the Collective Rapid Reaction Force (CRRF) of the CSTO to prevent coups d'etat.

    “We have seriously discussed this problem, and this will be significant support to the countries that are members of the CSTO. Because no one will come to us with a front, a war today, but many people scratch their hands on a constitutional coup. We must protect the integrity and independence of the CSTO countries, ”BelTA quotes the Belarusian leader.

    A Kremlin source explained to the Izvestia newspaper that the Old Man had “vulgarized” the idea of ​​using CRR. Nobody is going to protect his regime from repeating the events of December 2010. According to the newspaper, although Lukashenko is “considered an ally of Russia,” the Russian Foreign Ministry was instructed to constantly “dunk” the Belarusian authorities.

    “This is about using the potential of the CSTO to protect the constitutional order. When the national forces are simply not able to cope with the situation, when the situation is spreading, there is a threat to the life and safety of citizens, there are massive robberies and looting, then the CSTO can intervene. What happened in December 2010 of the year in Minsk is an internal affair of the state, ”Nikolai Bordyuzha told the publication.

    CRR decided to create in February 2009, but this process was delayed. It is curious that Alexander Lukashenko himself became the culprit of the delay. The Belarusian president did not sign an agreement on the creation of a rapid reaction force for a long time. In the end, Dmitry Medvedev persuaded him to do this in August of the same year.

    At the beginning of last month, an informal CSTO summit was held in Astana. It was decided to reform this organization. In particular, the leaders of the participating countries agreed to speed up the formation of the CRRF. In addition, Uzbekistan may be excluded from the CSTO, which has long been taking only formal participation in its work.

    Russian expert Igor Yurgens participated in the development of the CSTO reform. He told Izvestia that this organization would by no means “suppress popular uprisings”. “The CSTO should act in special situations: terrorism, extremism, the creation of an internal threat from the outside. For example, Islamic terrorists paid from abroad break into the territory of Tajikistan, ”he said.
  8. Patriot
    Patriot 7 September 2011 13: 08 New
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    lokdok

    Dear lokdok, the problem is easily solved by the devaluation of the ruble, which will inevitably happen after a significant drop in oil prices. And this will happen in the next year and a half. It seems to me after the election of morons and preziks.
    It’s their own fault that they allowed the Liberalists of the Medeputs to plant the whole country on an oil needle.
    1. Mesniy
      Mesniy 7 September 2011 14: 30 New
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      Wake up, the country has been on the oil needle since the 70s, prices fell at the end of the 80s - the Soviets merged ....
      1. His
        His 7 September 2011 21: 47 New
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        Partly right
  9. Sanzyro
    Sanzyro 7 September 2011 14: 00 New
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    Listen, what are you all about commerce yes about commerce? As traders, people have been taught to think by market, by traders! If you want to live normally, you should not think only about profit! For example, the family is a reduced model of the state. But no one really seriously thinks of renting a wife to bring profit or children to make money on it. There are income items, but there are also expenses. If you want everything to be good - pay! And this is inevitable. But we have reached the point - pensioners and children are not profitable! Schools, hospitals do not bring profit and our rulers declare it to us! The outskirts of the state are also unprofitable for us ... Has anyone thought that the bathroom is unprofitable for him at home ?? Constant costs, repairs, so-so ... Or the hallway? Well, what for it is needed ?? Put homeless people there and take money from them. Profit? - Profit! But they, I apologize, will piss at your door ... Maybe not everything needs to be considered in terms of buy-sell ??
  10. Patriot
    Patriot 7 September 2011 18: 27 New
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    Mesniy
    We are on you. Not yet crossed.

    You are partially right. But in those years, in the USSR, the structure of the economy was not so dependent on the price of oil, which is established by a handful of speculators on an overseas exchange.

    We ourselves produced a lot at that time and were able to do our own work, dress, feed and drink. And now one complete import. And imagine that oil tomorrow is $ 30-35-40. What do you think, and where will the ruble be? 40-50? And with this rate, all prices will jump 2-3 times. Including the excitement and conspiracy that we all could see a year ago in food prices, especially cereals and potatoes.
    1. Mesniy
      Mesniy 10 September 2011 10: 46 New
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      In those years, those who went further than the pigsty in the domestic one were called Chmyriy or village suckers.
      And how did oil prices go down - Sovdepia leaked into the toilet
  11. slan
    slan 7 September 2011 18: 58 New
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    All Belarusians will be fine. They have a competitive manufacturing sector, there is a sufficient sales market - the Russian Federation and Kazakhstan, and most importantly, their heads on their shoulders and hands grow from those places. The export of goods is not a disaster, but a blessing for the economy. Of course, you do not need to bring to the point of absurdity. And then maybe the local conomists in China will advise them to close the borders, preventing the mass export of Chinese goods)))
    And the Russian media .. yes, they simply put pressure on Lukashenko, seeking further concessions. Nothing personal, just business, as they say. This is the essence of a market economy, nothing can be done ((Oligarchs, they do not have a nationality. Or someone from proud ukrov may be very worried that, if the Russian Federation and Ukraine are united, Deripaska will buy Akhmetov’s assets?))
  12. kagorta 7 September 2011 20: 39 New
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    Do not forget that the lower the rate of your currency against the dollar or the euro, the higher your export opportunities for selling products. Before the crisis, the harvester cost 400 million Belarusian rubles in Belarusian rubles. rub. or 100 thousand dollars. USA (such as the normal market price), and now let's say 50 thousand dollars. USA. (Sorry, I don’t know the ruble.) Sell ​​in Russia for 75 thousand dollars. USA with arms kicked off. By the way, such a theory was also in use with us in 1998 and 2008, when the ruble was devalued.
    1. slan
      slan 7 September 2011 21: 33 New
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      It was not a theory, but a practice — the real sector of the Russian economy rose after 98, in 2008 it did not collapse due to devaluation.
      1. Mesniy
        Mesniy 8 September 2011 22: 55 New
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        Because Russia has a commodity economy, an export pipe, simply put, but syabrs have no raw materials, and products are not competitive
  13. zczczc
    zczczc 8 September 2011 02: 16 New
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    Old Man was right when he said that the time to unite had not yet come. This is how the last stronghold of the Slavic world will collapse, and our ubiquitous liberal will rule everywhere.

    It is impossible to unite in case of unequal economies, especially political systems.

    By the way, what is happening with Belarus now is a model of what will happen with Russia after joining the WTO. Us fox will likely.
    1. Splin
      Splin 8 September 2011 05: 17 New
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      Ukraine is in the WTO and it is absolutely not afraid of how they shouted before joining. Russia has knocked out even better conditions for itself, only Georgia is playing hard. In the situation with Belarus and Russia, different types of economies merge. Socialist and capitalism. This is like the unification of Germany, when the FRG bought up the GDR industry for pennies (pfennigs), which they also “lowered” due to the crisis.
  14. Patriot
    Patriot 8 September 2011 14: 05 New
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    Comrades. How long will this go on?

    It is necessary to take to the streets and protest against the current government. Is it really not clear. She does not have the right to exist in RUSSIA.
    Otherwise, a horse. Otherwise, medveputy will continue the collapse of the Russian Federation. Moreover, the Russian people need to unite with Ukraine, Belarus, Kazakhstan. And create your own economic and customs space. Is it really not clear that the gdp plan and I will give it is clearly sharpening our economy under a raw materials appendage. Take a look around. Open your eyes. What do you buy Russian apart from products? What? All somehow complicated things produced in other countries. Where the level of technology development and labor productivity are higher. And, of course, in these countries the cost is lower.
    And if we are drawn into the WTO, then that's it. THIS WILL BE THE LAST IMPACT ON OUR SICK COUNTRY FROM DIMA AND VOVA.
    Further there will be a point of no return.
    1. Sanzyro
      Sanzyro 9 September 2011 00: 47 New
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      Mesniy Well what else to answer ??
    2. Mesniy
      Mesniy 10 September 2011 10: 49 New
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      To protest against the current repainted komunyak is a good thing, I will support! We shoulder to shoulder COMMODITY!
      Well, when we fill them up, we will have to figure it out among ourselves .... am
  15. Insurgent
    Insurgent 8 September 2011 20: 13 New
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    what are you talking about belarusian tractors cheaper and good quality look in lithuania look at what they plow in Belarus the same is Ukrainian
  16. Insurgent
    Insurgent 8 September 2011 20: 15 New
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    if Belarus drives the experience to the west, then Russia will be Khan Rasia, first of all, it saves itself
  17. Banshee 8 September 2011 21: 00 New
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    Well, Russia’s Khan is unlikely to come, but the authors above are right in many respects.
    Belarus is a small country with a clear bias towards the agricultural sector. And with the WTO they will take with pleasure, not everyone can get synthetics with substitutes to hunt ... The whole question is how profitable it will be directly to Belarusian manufacturers, since prices will be dictated to them from above.

    Quote: zczczc
    By the way, what is happening with Belarus now is a model of what will happen with Russia after joining the WTO. Us fox will likely.


    Probably quite. From Russia there is more to take.
  18. Insurgent
    Insurgent 8 September 2011 22: 56 New
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    the agrarian country doesn’t have heavy machine building belaza mazy, by the way, you will be aware that the c400 complexes are electronic Belarusian stuffing, that is, brains and the Belarusian program in x-55 cruise missiles