The former adviser to the Russian president, Mr. Illarionov, this time decided to present a forecast of the development of events in Ukraine, which is being talked about almost from the day of the anti-constitutional coup in Kiev. Illarionov, "discovering America," declares that Ukraine is moving in the direction of economic collapse and default. According to Illarionov, Vladimir Putin is just waiting to draw the attention of the world community to the inability of the Ukrainian authorities to control the situation in the country.
Andrei Illarionov, who has lately been marked by statements that are sharply opposition to the Russian authorities, writes the following (referring to Ukraine):
You are incredibly lucky if in 2015, the exchange rate does not exceed the mark in 50 hryvnia per dollar.
According to Illarionov, today's economic problems of Ukraine are just a slight runny nose before an impending serious illness.
Illarionov quotes
Navigator:
All this will create favorable grounds for Mr. Putin, who is closely following the events in Ukraine and patiently waiting for his hour, once again declare the Kiev authorities illegitimate, call Ukraine a failed state, try to attract the attention of the world community to the fact that official Kiev is unable to cope with elementary economic problems. The default and the subsequent sociopolitical crisis will create extremely favorable conditions for the completion of Mr Putin’s program to establish control over all of Ukraine.
Further, Illarionov tells the West and Ukraine that there is no need to hope for the destruction of the Russian economy as a result of falling oil prices.
Illarionov:
I am amazed by this kind of talk and expectations: they say Russia is about to collapse, it does not have an economy, only oil and gas. This is a profound error, a completely inadequate perception of the real state of affairs. World oil prices may fall to 20 dollars per barrel, this has already happened, but the Russian Federation still has decent foreign exchange reserves, the Russian economy consists not only of the oil industry and gas production. Moreover, in the last three months the industry began to revive, and with each month its pace increases. In 2015, Russia may even have a small economic growth.
One of Ukrainian readers commented on Illarionov’s forecast as follows:
All of us in Kiev are ready to endure even a dollar for 50 hryvnia - if only someone liberates the country from the fascists! Then we will restore everything together with Russia!
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