Nuclear potential of China: history and modernity. Part 2

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In the past, the leadership of the People's Republic of China placed the main emphasis in the implementation of plans for “nuclear deterrence” on ballistic missiles. In addition to strategic and tactical missile systems, the PLA Air Force has about a hundred Xian H-6 bombers - carriers of free-fall nuclear bombs. This rather old plane is a "Chinaized" Soviet bomber - Tu-16.


H-6 bomber with a suspended cruise missile


In 2011, the upgraded Xian H-6K was adopted. This aircraft implemented a set of activities designed to increase the combat potential of the bomber. On the H-6K installed Russian engines D-30KP-2, introduced a new complex of avionics and EW. The combat load has increased to 12 000 kg, and the range has been increased from 1800 to 3000 km. H-6K capable of carrying 6 strategic cruise missiles CJ-10A, the creation of which used technical solutions of the Soviet X-55.

However, the modernization did not make the H-6K a modern machine. Its combat range, even with long-range cruise missiles, is absolutely insufficient for solving strategic tasks. A subsonic, bulky, low-maneuverable aircraft with a large EPR in the event of a real conflict with the United States or Russia will be extremely vulnerable to fighters and air defense systems.

A few years ago, information appeared on the development of a promising long-range bomber in the PRC. But, in all likelihood, one can’t expect the adoption of a modern Chinese long-range aviation complex in the near future.

This difficult task was very difficult for the Chinese aviation industry. Apparently, wanting to save time, China turned to Russia with a request to sell a package of technical documentation for the Tu-22М3 bomber, but was refused.

For a long time, the main Chinese carrier of tactical nuclear charges was the Nanchang Q-5 attack aircraft developed on the basis of the Soviet MiG-19 fighter. Approximately 30 machines of this type from the 100 available in the line have been modified to use nuclear bombs.

Nuclear potential of China: history and modernity. Part 2

Q-5 Stormtrooper


Currently, Q-5 attack aircraft as carriers of tactical nuclear weapons gradually replaced in the PLA Air Force with Xian JH-7А fighter-bombers.


JH-7A Fighter Bomber


At the beginning of 2000-x in China, the construction of a full-fledged naval component of the SNF began. The first Chinese nuclear submarine with ballistic missiles (SSBN) "Xia" pr.092, created on the basis of submarines of the "Han" type, was laid back in 1978 at the shipyard in Huludao. The launch of the submarine on 30 took place on April 1981 of the year, but due to technical difficulties and several accidents, it was possible to put it into operation only in 1987.


Chinese SSNB 092 "Xia"


The SSNS of the 092 “Xia” project was armed with 12 mines for storing and launching two-stage solid propellant ballistic missiles JL-1, with a launch range of more than 1700 km. The missiles are equipped with monoblock warheads with power: 200 — 300 Ct.

Chinese nuclear submarine "Xia" was not too successful, and was built in a single copy. She did not conduct a single combat service as a SSBN and did not leave the internal Chinese waters during the entire period of operation. Thus, the "SS" SSBN can be regarded as a weapon that is in trial operation and cannot fully participate in nuclear deterrence due to its weak tactical and technical characteristics. Nevertheless, it played an important role in the development of the Chinese naval nuclear forces, being a “school” for training and a “floating stand” for developing technologies.


Jin 094 SSRB


The next step was the Jin class 094 SSBNs, developed in China to replace the outdated and unreliable Xia strategic 092 class submarine. Outwardly, it resembles the Soviet missile-carriers of the project 667BDRM "Dolphin". Submarines of the 094 type carry over 12 ballistic missiles (SLBMs) ​​of the JL-2 type (Julian-2, Big Wave-2) with a range of 8 thousand km.



When creating a Chinese two-stage solid propellant ballistic missile JL-2, technical solutions and separate units of the Dunfen-31 ICBM were used. There are no exact data on warheads of the JL-2 rocket.


Satellite image of Google Earth: Chinese submarines of type 094 "Jin" in the basing station in the Qingdao region


The first submarine was formally commissioned in the 2004 year. According to satellite imagery, it is assumed that there are at least three more Jin-class SSBNs. According to the Chinese media, in March 2010, the 6-I was launched, in a row, a submarine of this type. According to some reports, the commissioning of all SSNS 094 "Jin" is delayed due to unavailability of the armament complex.


Satellite image of Google Earth: Chinese submarines of the type 094 "Jin" in the base station on the island of Hainan, the lid of the missile silos are open

China began to deploy new strategic nuclear submarines of the Jin type on patrol in 2014. Patrolling was carried out in the vicinity of the territorial waters of the PRC under the cover of surface forces. fleet and marine aviation, and apparently had a training character. Given that the JL-2 SLBM range is not enough to hit targets deep in the United States, it can be assumed that real combat patrols far from their hometowns will meet with serious opposition from the US Navy anti-submarine forces.

Currently, construction of the SSBN of 096 Avenue "Tang" is underway in the PRC. It must be armed with an 24 SLBM with a range of at least 11000 km, which will allow you to confidently hit targets in the depth of the enemy’s territory while being protected by your fleet.

Given China's economic growth, it can be assumed that by the 2020, the country's Navy will have at least 6 SSBNs, 094 AX and 096, with an 80 SLBM of intercontinental range (250-300 AU). Which roughly corresponds to the current indicators of Russia.

At present, the PRC is actively improving strategic nuclear forces. According to the Chinese political leadership, this should in the future keep the US from trying to resolve disputes with the PRC with the help of armed force.

However, the improvement and expansion of quantitative indicators of the strategic nuclear forces in the PRC is largely hampered by the insufficient amount of nuclear materials necessary for the production of warheads. In this regard, the PRC officially launched a project for the technical conversion of 400 tons of nuclear fuel elements, which should lead to an increase in uranium production by half.

There is a technique that allows an approximate representation of the number of nuclear warheads in China. According to different sources, from the end of the sixties to the beginning of the nineties, Chinese enterprises produced no more than 40-45 tons of highly enriched uranium and 8-10 tons of weapon-grade plutonium. Thus, for all history The Chinese nuclear program could produce no more than 1800-2000 nuclear charges. Despite the development of technology, modern nuclear warheads have limited shelf life. The United States and Russia were able to bring this parameter to 20-25 years, but so far they have not achieved such success in the PRC. Thus, the number of deployed nuclear warheads on strategic carriers of no more than 250-300 units and the total number of tactical ammunition no more than 400-500 looks most likely in the light of the available information.


Estimated strength of Chinese missiles according to US Department of Defense data as of 2012 year


The potential seems to be modest in comparison with the strategic nuclear forces of the United States and Russia. But it is quite enough to cause unacceptable damage in the retaliatory strike of the People’s Liberation Army of China and to conduct large-scale military operations with the use of tactical nuclear weapons against the armed forces of any nuclear power.


The radius of action of the PRC BR


Attention is drawn to the presence in the PRC in service of the “Second Artillery Corps” of a significant number of mobile DF-21 DSDS (more than 100). These complexes are practically useless in confrontation with the United States. However, they cover a significant part of the territory of our country.



The nuclear missile systems in the 60-70-s, which are in service with the PRC, due to their low combat readiness, survivability and security cannot yet provide a retaliatory or counter-sufficiently powerful retaliatory strike.

As part of the modernization of its strategic forces, China is moving from obsolete liquid rockets to new solid-fuel ones. New systems are more mobile and therefore less vulnerable to enemy attacks.

But the production of new mobile complexes is very slow. The weak point of technical reliability remains a weak point of Chinese ballistic missiles, which partly devalues ​​the achievements in this field.

By all indications, Chinese mobile complexes are more vulnerable than Russian ones. Mobile launchers of China's largest Russian, have the worst maneuverability and require more time for pre-launch procedures before launch. The central regions of the People's Republic of China, in contrast to Russia, do not have large forests where rocket complexes could take shelter during the daytime. Their maintenance requires considerable human resources and a small amount of auxiliary equipment. This makes the rapid movement of mobile complexes difficult and relatively easy to detect by means of space reconnaissance.

Nevertheless, huge funds and resources continue to be spent in the PRC not only on the direct creation and improvement of new types of ballistic missiles, but also on the further development of directly new type nuclear warheads. If in 70-80-ies, the few Chinese ICBMs possessing a QUO of 3 km were equipped with megaton monoblock thermonuclear charges, which made them typical “killers of cities”, then modern Chinese ICBMs carry separable cannons of individual guidance with a power up to 300 Kt with an CVT of several hundred meters .

It should be noted that with the US presence in Central Asia, part of China’s nuclear arsenals turned out to be in the zone of influence of US tactical aviation. In this regard, a significant part of the Chinese strategic nuclear forces, on an ongoing basis, is located in underground shelters carved into the rock in mountainous regions of the PRC. Such an arrangement provides in peacetime protection from satellite reconnaissance assets, and in wartime to a large extent guarantees invulnerability in the event of a sudden attack. China has built underground tunnels and structures of considerable size and length.

It is assumed that Chinese mobile missile systems will wait there for nuclear strikes on the PRC, after which they should move out of shelters for two weeks and deliver time-strikes on the enemy, thus guaranteeing the inevitability of nuclear retaliation. The delivery of a simultaneous nuclear missile strike by all the strategic nuclear forces of the PRC requires lengthy preliminary preparation. This discrepancy was the main reason for the change in views on the procedure for China’s use of nuclear weapons.

According to official military doctrine, the PRC is committed not to be the first to use nuclear weapons. But in recent years, the military leadership of the PRC has already begun to admit the possibility of using nuclear weapons first. This can be carried out in such extreme conditions as an unsuccessful frontier battle and the created threat of complete defeat of the main PLA groups, the loss of a significant part of the territory with the most important administrative-political centers and economic regions of strategic importance for the outcome of the war, the real threat of destruction by strategic nuclear forces by conventional means. defeat (which is extremely unlikely, given the state and number of PLA).

Further scientific, technical, and economic growth of the PRC, while maintaining the current pace of development, will provide its strategic nuclear forces in the coming decades the possibility of launching reciprocal and counter nuclear strikes. So the new quality of the Chinese military machine is not far off.

Based on:
http://russian.china.org.cn/
http://www.globalsecurity.org
http://www.globalmil.com
www.ausairpower.net
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  1. +8
    30 December 2014 08: 45
    The bmpd blog reports

    According to the Chinese military web portal 81.cn, one of the Second Artillery brigades (strategic missile forces) of the PLA, equipped with mobile missile systems with medium-range ballistic missiles DF-21A, conducted large-scale exercises in anticipation of the new year 2015, during which, Obviously, scenarios of prolonged covert maneuvering along the inaccessible terrain of Northeast China during the threatened period in the conditions of extreme winter colds were worked out. For about a month, a team of hundreds of vehicles and thousands of military personnel moved through a cold climate at temperatures that sometimes dropped to -30 ° C or lower. The brigade was trained to act in conditions of threat from the enemy’s satellite reconnaissance means, as well as the use of high-precision weapons by the enemy, electronic warfare and weapons of mass destruction. The military learned to cope with the difficulties of servicing equipment in the winter, mastered the disguise of equipment in order to protect it from satellite reconnaissance in winter conditions, as well as driving in icy roads.
    link







    1. +5
      30 December 2014 09: 49
      Quote: Ascetic
      one of the Second Artillery brigades (strategic missile forces) of the PLA, equipped with DF-21A mobile missile systems with medium-range ballistic missiles, conducted large-scale exercises on the eve of the new 2015, during which, obviously, scenarios of long-range covert maneuvering in difficult terrain were worked out Northeast china during the threatened period in the conditions of extreme winter cold.


      These teachings have something in common with what is discussed in the publication:
      Attention is drawn to the presence in the PRC in service of the “Second Artillery Corps” of a significant number of mobile DF-21 DSDS (more than 100). These complexes are practically useless in confrontation with the United States. However, they cover a significant part of the territory of our country.

      However, Russia has nothing to fear, because China is our closest friend and ally, is not it?
      1. +3
        30 December 2014 10: 19
        England has no eternal enemies and eternal friends but has eternal interests.
        1. +5
          30 December 2014 18: 58
          Quote: Mother Teresa
          England has no eternal enemies and eternal friends but has eternal interests.

          China, too. And here we are ... as someone assented, praised - we immediately write to friends and brothers. Then we bite our elbows. And here is what Russian proverbs and sayings say about this:

          Praise to the fellow - perniciousness.

          Fight loves boasting.

          Praised the fool, and he is glad.

          The beaver is praised, but the whole is scorched.

          For a ruble of work, for two boasts.
      2. The comment was deleted.
      3. +7
        30 December 2014 10: 42
        Quote: Bongo
        China is our closest friend and ally, isn't it?


        More like a fellow traveler. in the future, a likely adversary in the conditions of a weakening West. If we talk about a specific PGRK, then the mountainous-wooded area of ​​the northeast is the most favorable place for their base, in contrast to South and Central China. And the range of this ballistic missile defense allows you to cover all potential opponents in the region.
        They are trying to use our tactics of using PGRC, while this collective farm looks naive as an antediluvian steam train against the express train in all respects.
        I looked at summer photos, deploying in the field, camouflage, training, cable management, remote control panels the level of the 70-80s of the last century.
        If the same team is interested in the summer
        link

        But they learn fast. The same DF-41 is already somewhat reminiscent of a hybrid of the Pioneer BRDS with the PGRK Poplar Point. In this regard, they also went along the path of unification by creating the JL-2 SLBM on the basis of this missile, just as we had created the Mace.
        In the future, it is precisely these missiles that, in my opinion, will form the basis of the strategic nuclear forces. The main problem of these complexes remains low readiness for launch, poor survivability and mobility.
      4. +8
        30 December 2014 17: 41
        Quote: Bongo
        However, Russia has nothing to fear, because China is our closest friend and ally, is not it?


        China has no friends with anyone. China has its own interests. China is a friend and ally to me like Napoleon.
        1. +4
          30 December 2014 22: 07
          Quote: lonely
          China has no friends with anyone. China has its own interests. China is a friend and ally to me like Napoleon.

          In general, the Chinese direction also needs to be covered by means of detection and warning.
          And you must have some kind of missile defense system for this direction.
          1. +4
            30 December 2014 23: 02
            then this and that))) many here dream about their fantasies and desires. only no one bothers to ask from oneself why 60% of all this potential is directed to the north
  2. +5
    30 December 2014 11: 04
    Their coverage area is unambiguous, and no other use is foreseen. They definitely have a counter Russian destination!
    1. 0
      30 December 2014 14: 16
      Quote: fktrcfylhn61
      Their coverage area is unambiguous, and no other use is foreseen. They definitely have a counter Russian destination!


      Yes? Or maybe against India or Taiwan or Japan, etc.
      No need to state so categorically.
      1. +8
        30 December 2014 15: 03
        Quote: quilted jacket
        Yes? Or maybe against India or Taiwan or Japan, etc. It is not necessary to say so categorically.


        Several hundred DF-11 and DF-15 tactical complexes have been deployed against Taiwan (they are discussed in the first part). Most of the American military bases in the Republic of Korea are also amazed by these complexes, and there is no doubt that if something happens, the North Koreans will not remain indifferent either. It is also worth adding several dozen DH-10 land-based cruise missiles. Forgive me, I don’t believe in a nuclear conflict between India and China in the foreseeable future. Rather, India will once again clash with Pakistan. One and a half hundred MRBMs for Japan is excessive, two dozen is enough. So who's left? If we admit that most of the DH-21 mobile systems are aimed specifically against Russia, then the Chinese will be offended and will stop buying our raw materials?
        1. 0
          30 December 2014 15: 59
          Quote: Bongo


          Several hundred DF-11 and DF-15 tactical complexes have been deployed against Taiwan (they are discussed in the first part). Most of the American military bases in the Republic of Korea are also amazed by these complexes, and there is no doubt that if something happens, the North Koreans will not remain indifferent either. It is also worth adding several dozen DH-10 land-based cruise missiles. Forgive me, I don’t believe in a nuclear conflict between India and China in the foreseeable future. Rather, India will once again clash with Pakistan. One and a half hundred MRBMs for Japan is excessive, and two dozen is enough.


          And why don't you consider the situation that China is precisely these complexes allowed in the depths of its territory, in order to protect them from being hit by missiles and enemy aircraft and wants to "influence" its neighbors (and it is not at all necessary that it is Russia)
          After all, the deployment of short and medium range complexes near the borders (as you say in the cases of DF-11 and DF-15) of your potential adversary makes them extremely vulnerable to attack from his side.
          Therefore, it is easier and safer to hit, for example, Japan from the "middle" smile China, long-range medium-range missiles that are located there under the powerful protection of air defense and air force. Moreover, it does not have missile defense from missiles of this class.
          But short-range missiles, they may well bring down for example SAM Patriot, etc.
        2. +7
          30 December 2014 18: 50
          Quote: Bongo
          If we admit that most of the DF-21 mobile complexes are aimed specifically against Russia, then will the Chinese take offense and stop buying our raw materials?

          Why so sarcastically? Of course, the DF-21 is aimed primarily at Russia. And, for example, the DF-4 was called the "Moscow missile". And why would the Chinese communists have any attachment to Russian oligarchs? Especially if they could not stand the Khrushchev revisionists and, by the way, did the right thing.
          I believe that we need not to be worn out about this, but to systematically develop the Strategic Missile Forces-quite sufficient (and in truth the only) insurance belt in case of a large-scale conflict with the PRC.
          Friendship is friendship, and combat readiness must be kept.
  3. 0
    30 December 2014 11: 55
    Their coverage area is unique, and no other use is foreseen.

    Oh how. But not the anti-Indian or anti-American war base? But only anti-Russian, and even crack? laughing
    1. +5
      30 December 2014 12: 59
      Quote: tanit
      Oh how. But not the anti-Indian or anti-American war base?

      Of course, "anti-Indian or anti-American-Kan military base" especially considering the location along the borders of the Russian Federation. laughing
      1. 0
        30 December 2014 15: 07
        And the fact that they are there, on the Russian border, is easier to hide from the same Indians, but at the same time they get them across India, is this nonsense? And in the case of the Americans and even the Russian air defense system, they’ll hide, this is the little thing.
        China will attack Russia - India, Vietnam, Taiwan, Japan, the Philippines - they will be among the fans, of course. China (that is, the People's Republic of China), in any way, will ogrebot the answer, will spend all its "200 milen milliards" of mopedists (what it will equip, tell me laughing ), and Taiwan (Republic of China) will wait.
        By the way, for Taipei - China - there is a territory temporarily captured by the Communists. And 50 years ago - Taiwan occupied a place in the UN Security Council.
        Best regards hi
        1. +6
          30 December 2014 15: 29
          Quote: tanit
          China will attack Russia - India, Vietnam, Taiwan, Japan, the Philippines - they will be among the fans, of course. China (that is, the People's Republic of China) will in any way get the answer, spend all its "200 milen milliards" of mopedists (what it will equip, tell me ...


          Do not underestimate the PLA stop Over the past 20 years, the Chinese leadership has made enormous efforts to modernize the armed forces. Today it is a very combat-ready force, numbering 2 250 000 people. (2013), equipped for the most part with fairly modern weapons and equipment. The Far Eastern military district without the use of tactical nuclear weapons in the event of a conflict will not be able to contain the onslaught of the Chinese army. As for the mobilization potential of the PLA, it exceeds 350 million people.
        2. +3
          30 December 2014 19: 12
          And then the United States led communist China to the UN. So who is to whom an ally and friend is written by a pitchfork on water.
  4. -1
    30 December 2014 14: 12
    Interesting article. Thank you.
    Yes, China is simply building up its armed forces at a "frantic pace".
    More and more, the world is heading for a big war, and this is very bad.
    And in everything one can feel the "hand" of the warmongers of conflicts around the world and the provocateurs of the United States and its accomplices Israel, the "spineless" EU, as well as fanatics and terrorists from Arab countries.
  5. +1
    30 December 2014 14: 41
    great article! thanks to the author, gladly gave it a try.
  6. 0
    30 December 2014 15: 15
    The submarine is our DOLPHIN
    1. +1
      30 December 2014 15: 35
      Quote: Andrew3000
      The submarine is our DOLPHIN

      Apparently this is - yes.
      But the bottom is definitely Chinese
      1. 0
        4 January 2015 08: 10
        Does anyone know something about her "insides"?
        For there is only a communalized technical solution, made from the inability to cram the existing missiles into acceptable dimensions.
  7. +5
    30 December 2014 18: 46
    China is its own friend and they have their own strategy developed over the centuries and we don’t understand them, we just have to coexist nearby and peacefully for as long as possible.
    1. +1
      1 January 2015 20: 30
      Quote: Farvil
      China is its own friend and they have their own strategy developed over the centuries and we don’t understand them, we just have to coexist nearby and peacefully for as long as possible.

      I completely agree. China has always looked at the "northern pie" with appetite. Since antediluvian times. The Slavic Vedas directly speak of a long-term war with China, and the conclusion of peace even became a starting point in chronology from "the creation of the world in the Star Temple." During the time of the Russian tsars, the Far East and Siberia did not cease to be the subject of China's claims. When the Chinese were convincingly bent over by the Japanese, they had no time for Russian territories and the USSR even became their ally. But in the 60s, the accents changed dramatically and maps appeared in Chinese school textbooks, where the lands north of the Soviet-Chinese border were unambiguously designated as the territory of China. So with such "friends" close by, some enemies will fade. China has repeatedly received convincing teeth from Russia, which he remembers perfectly, but wait for a convenient moment so that they will always cling to. But not until they are confident of impunity. The higher military-technical potential of Russia, which could multiply by zero their overwhelming advantage in the number of people, has always been the main deterrent. The question is how long will it remain so.
  8. +4
    30 December 2014 19: 05
    As always a very informative article. Thanks to the author!
    There are only questions for the phrase. According to various sources, from the late sixties to the early nineties, Chinese enterprises produced no more than 40-45 tons of highly enriched uranium and 8-10 tons of weapons-grade plutonium.
    With regard to the PRC nuclear program, these different sources seem somewhat doubtful. And then now the end of 2014, and not the beginning of 90's, how much uranium has been produced from the beginning of 90's to the present?
    So the thesis about the maximum number of warheads produced in the amount of 2000 pieces does not seem entirely justified.
    It also seems to me that SSBNs of type 094 "Jin" and the bomber Xian H-6K are somewhat underestimated. At least for us, "six" with a range of 3000 km. appears to be a very dangerous aircraft. We have a huge border there, very loosely covered by air defense, in addition, the H-6K can enter from the direction of Mongolia.
    Bongo, his family and all the Far East with the upcoming! drinks
    I hope that next year the author will delight us with his interesting articles!
    1. +1
      31 December 2014 04: 41
      Quote: Odyssey
      As always a very informative article. Thanks to the author!


      Thank you, glad I liked it! Your comments are usually quite balanced and to the point! hi
      Quote: Odyssey
      With regard to the PRC nuclear program, these different sources seem somewhat doubtful. And then now the end of 2014, and not the beginning of 90's, how much uranium has been produced from the beginning of 90's to the present?


      Regarding the amount of fissile materials produced in the PRC, I did not get other reliable information. It is known that in 2000 China purchased uranium ore from Africa, but not so much that it would.
      Apparently in the PRC in this matter, a bet is placed on the production of plutonium in power reactors in the generation of electric energy. At that time, the same path went to the USSR (Chernobyl-type reactors. In addition, the life of Chinese nuclear warheads is shorter than in the Russian Federation and the USA. Therefore, considerable resources are spent on processing and re-enrichment.
      Quote: Odyssey
      Also, it seems to me that SSBNs of type 094 "Jin" and bomber Xian H-6K are somewhat underestimated. At least for us, "six" with a range of 3000 km. appears to be a very dangerous aircraft. We have a huge border there, very loosely covered by air defense, in addition, the H-6K can also enter from the direction of Mongolia.

      Of course, the Chinese SSBNs already pose a threat to our Far East. But bombers in their current form can only be used on "sidelines."
      Quote: Odyssey
      Bongo, his family and all the Far East with the upcoming! I hope that next year the author will delight us with his interesting articles!

      Thank you again! drinks I hope it will be so! You, as well as all your near and dear ones with the upcoming and wish for all the best!
  9. 0
    31 December 2014 15: 47
    Thank you for the article.
    Should Russia have any radar targeting China?
    Already very dashing growth of the threat comes from there.
    1. +1
      1 January 2015 04: 58
      Quote: Dan Slav
      Should Russia have any radar targeting China?

      Positions of the radar early warning systems and their review sectors
      More details here:
      Russian strategic nuclear forces and missile defense facilities in Google Earth images
      http://topwar.ru/39929-rossiyskie-strategicheskie-yadernye-sily-i-sredstva-pro-n
      a-snimkah-google-earth.html

      Russian means of early missile warning and control of outer space
      http://topwar.ru/37147-rossiyskie-sredstva-rannego-raketnogo-preduprezhdeniya-i-
      kontrolya-kosmicheskogo-prostranstva.html

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