Oil has risen in price!
If December 13 a barrel of Brent oil cost 61,92 dollars, in the morning December 15 prices jumped up to 62,76 dollars for the same barrel. The Bloomberg agency has made a purely psychological conclusion: prices are rising, since market participants considered their fall to be excessive last week. And right there in the press appeared the statement of the UAE Minister of Energy Suheil al-Mazuri. According to him, OPEC will keep production quotas even if the price of oil falls to forty dollars per barrel. Conspiracy theorists again talked about political oil scenarios.
Anyone can see the dynamics of the price of Brent crude in dollars per barrel online at the website Yandex. The graph shows how the curve goes down, and the column of numbers is accompanied by negative changes. A positive change is noted only at the top - December 15. (Please note that the indicator often changes during trading, and therefore the article becomes obsolete every minute.)
As transmits Interfax, oil prices rose on Monday, because the market participants considered their fall on Friday and at the end of last week to be excessive. This was written by the agency "Bloomberg".
“Some in the market see an opportunity to buy, so the market is stabilizing,” said Victor Shum, vice president of IHS Inc. in Singapore. “Given concerns over oil production, futures may fall even lower before an upward adjustment begins.” We are waiting for a long period of volatility. "
Growth showed both Brent and WTI. January futures for Brent on the London Stock Exchange ICE Futures on the morning of December 15 rose in price by 0,66 1,07%. The price of WTI futures for January in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange increased by $ 0,44 (to $ 58,25 per barrel).
Markit Economics analysts are forecasting an increase in business activity index (PMI) in December 2014 to 50,5 points (from 50,1 points in November) in the eurozone and growth of the December index in the US to 55,5 points from 54,8 points in November, notes RIA News".
“Scheduled for the current week preliminary statistics on the index of business activity in the industry may provide some support to oil prices,” the agency quotes the commentary of Phillip Futures experts.
Experts believe that PMI expectations are favorable, and this may prevent a further fall in prices this week.
December 15 in the Russian press, a statement by the Minister of Energy of the United Arab Emirates, Suhayl al-Mazuri. He said that OPEC will not change the decision to keep production quotas even if the price of oil falls to 40 dollars per barrel. In addition, the cartel needs a whole quarter (three months) to make a decision to convene an extraordinary meeting, and the current conditions do not give a reason for an emergency meeting.
The minister also stressed that he did not know about the plan to assemble such a meeting. "We are not going to change our opinion because prices have come up to 60 dollars or 40 dollars," "Lenta.ru" words al-Mazuri.
On the eve of this statement, December 14, the OPEC Secretary General made a speech in Dubai. According to him, world oil prices are lower than those that would meet the current conditions of the world market. Abdullah al-Badri at the same time rejected outside influence on the decision of the cartel to keep production quotas, reports RBC with reference to Reuters.
The head of OPEC did not specify what price he considers optimal, and said that the cartel does not have a goal to bring the cost of a barrel to a certain level. Further, he directly rejected the suggestion that the decision of OPEC to maintain the production quotas on someone someone dictated. These alleged dictates were even voiced by the Secretary General: “Some say that the cartel made a decision under US pressure. Some argue that it is directed against Russia and Iran. All this is not true. ”
RBC cites analysts at Bank of America. According to them, oil prices hit bottom.
There is another opinion published on RBC back in October. 18 analysts of large investment banks surveyed by Bloomberg since the beginning of September believed that Brent’s North Sea oil would rise again to 100 dollars per barrel. When will this happen? By the end of 2014 of the year.
If you believe these predictions, the curve will jump up sharply this week or, at the latest, the next.
Analyst Galina Yashina (federal portal "Capital of the country") Recalls that the excess oil on the market is 2 million barrels per day, while production in shale deposits in North America does not fall, but grows. This is the first factor that affects prices. The second factor is speculative moods.
The oversupply today is connected with the growth of oil production in the United States, says Vladimir Drebentsov, BP’s chief economist for Russia and the CIS. OPEC decided to take a chance, making a bet that the decline in prices will force the US to reduce its production of relatively expensive shale oil.
Mr. Yashin reminds that the oil industry in the US enjoys benefits. Yes, and its costs are lower than they could be, since the development is currently carried out in those areas where the oil infrastructure existed previously.
Nobody knows exactly how much oil is in shale. The Monterrey California reserves estimate was recently reduced by as much as 96%: from 13,7 billion barrels to 600 million barrels. These are the mistakes.
The decline in prices is beneficial to someone. For example, China.
The Celestial Empire uses a drop in oil prices to create strategic reserves. “Low prices will contribute to the development of a national program for the formation of strategic oil reserves,” Mr. Yashin quotes the words of SCI International expert Gao Jiang.
But Russia is definitely the loser. True, some market participants are optimistic in spite of everything. For example, the vice-president of Lukoil, Leonid Fedun, believes that the company will maintain profitability at a price of 25 dollars per barrel.
Western analysts believe, however, that Russia is overly dependent on world market conditions, and a decline in oil prices could destroy its economy. For example, A. Nardelli and S. Merler in the British newspaper «The Guardian» They write that the cheapness of oil is explained by the relatively weak demand of China and Europe and the inaction of OPEC. Russia, for a balanced budget, needs the price of oil around 105 dollars per barrel. True, the weakening of the ruble partially compensates for this value.
The material contains data from various studies, according to which the country loses about 12-14 billions of dollars a year with each decrease in the price of oil for 10 dollars per barrel. And in Russia, oil and gas account for about half of government revenues and more than 60% of the country's exports. Therefore, "the consequences can be significant."
Analysts believe Russia's life in oil and gas is a real disaster. Journalists point out that Russia's wealth is "disproportionately dependent on natural resources." According to World Bank estimates, natural capital in Russia is 43% of total wealth, and in Australia, Canada, Norway and New Zealand, this ratio varies between 8 and 13%.
December 15 Online "Independent newspaper" An article appeared by Anastasia Bashkatova, deputy head of the department of economics publications. She believes that the ruble is not falling at all because of the cheapening of oil.
In her opinion, the reasons for the fall of the ruble should be sought in distrust of the policy of the monetary authorities, in the flight of capital, in the reduction of investment activity and in the anti-Russian sanctions that isolated Russia from currency inflows. After all, other countries-exporters of oil currency does not fall.
From the beginning of 2014, the ruble fell by 74% to 57 rubles. for dollar versus 33 rub. in January, while Brent crude fell by about 42%. But in most oil exporters, there was no collapse of the national currency like the Russian one, the expert writes.
What is the government saying now?
Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev in the program "Vesti on Saturday" urged the population to remain calm: "You need a little patience and look at how events will develop, because we have already passed crises, and in the end all the same there was a rebound, the ruble strengthened, therefore now the most important thing is not to fuss, but just to look into the future. ”
By the way, as if confirming negative forecasts, the rise in oil prices on Monday did not at all strengthen the ruble. If a barrel of oil jumped in price, then the ruble now shows "record" results: for a dollar, they give more than 64 rubles!
As noted by RBC, the value of the dollar at the auctions on the Moscow 15 December December exceeded 64 rubles, and the value of the euro - 78 rubles. The collapse of the ruble occurred against the backdrop of the Central Bank's forecast for 2015 year: the regulator made the Russian economy fall by 4,8% in the coming year.
However, we would not completely dismiss the impact of oil prices on the exchange rate. Psychological expectations of the market has not been canceled. It can be expected that with a certain increase in oil prices, if it continues for several days, the ruble exchange rate will show a noticeable positive trend.
Anyone can see the dynamics of the price of Brent crude in dollars per barrel online at the website Yandex. The graph shows how the curve goes down, and the column of numbers is accompanied by negative changes. A positive change is noted only at the top - December 15. (Please note that the indicator often changes during trading, and therefore the article becomes obsolete every minute.)
As transmits Interfax, oil prices rose on Monday, because the market participants considered their fall on Friday and at the end of last week to be excessive. This was written by the agency "Bloomberg".
“Some in the market see an opportunity to buy, so the market is stabilizing,” said Victor Shum, vice president of IHS Inc. in Singapore. “Given concerns over oil production, futures may fall even lower before an upward adjustment begins.” We are waiting for a long period of volatility. "
Growth showed both Brent and WTI. January futures for Brent on the London Stock Exchange ICE Futures on the morning of December 15 rose in price by 0,66 1,07%. The price of WTI futures for January in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange increased by $ 0,44 (to $ 58,25 per barrel).
Markit Economics analysts are forecasting an increase in business activity index (PMI) in December 2014 to 50,5 points (from 50,1 points in November) in the eurozone and growth of the December index in the US to 55,5 points from 54,8 points in November, notes RIA News".
“Scheduled for the current week preliminary statistics on the index of business activity in the industry may provide some support to oil prices,” the agency quotes the commentary of Phillip Futures experts.
Experts believe that PMI expectations are favorable, and this may prevent a further fall in prices this week.
December 15 in the Russian press, a statement by the Minister of Energy of the United Arab Emirates, Suhayl al-Mazuri. He said that OPEC will not change the decision to keep production quotas even if the price of oil falls to 40 dollars per barrel. In addition, the cartel needs a whole quarter (three months) to make a decision to convene an extraordinary meeting, and the current conditions do not give a reason for an emergency meeting.
The minister also stressed that he did not know about the plan to assemble such a meeting. "We are not going to change our opinion because prices have come up to 60 dollars or 40 dollars," "Lenta.ru" words al-Mazuri.
On the eve of this statement, December 14, the OPEC Secretary General made a speech in Dubai. According to him, world oil prices are lower than those that would meet the current conditions of the world market. Abdullah al-Badri at the same time rejected outside influence on the decision of the cartel to keep production quotas, reports RBC with reference to Reuters.
The head of OPEC did not specify what price he considers optimal, and said that the cartel does not have a goal to bring the cost of a barrel to a certain level. Further, he directly rejected the suggestion that the decision of OPEC to maintain the production quotas on someone someone dictated. These alleged dictates were even voiced by the Secretary General: “Some say that the cartel made a decision under US pressure. Some argue that it is directed against Russia and Iran. All this is not true. ”
RBC cites analysts at Bank of America. According to them, oil prices hit bottom.
There is another opinion published on RBC back in October. 18 analysts of large investment banks surveyed by Bloomberg since the beginning of September believed that Brent’s North Sea oil would rise again to 100 dollars per barrel. When will this happen? By the end of 2014 of the year.
If you believe these predictions, the curve will jump up sharply this week or, at the latest, the next.
Analyst Galina Yashina (federal portal "Capital of the country") Recalls that the excess oil on the market is 2 million barrels per day, while production in shale deposits in North America does not fall, but grows. This is the first factor that affects prices. The second factor is speculative moods.
“... since the system of exchange trading in oil was launched in 1983, the prices on the oil market are increasingly determined by the demand for paper oil. The stock exchange is dominated by oil futures - agreements for certain future deliveries, which in this case will not necessarily be brought to execution. As a result, the same barrel of oil can repeatedly pass from seller to seller, and it is very difficult to predict price dynamics, since it depends not only on the real economy, but also on market speculations and political processes in the world. ”
The oversupply today is connected with the growth of oil production in the United States, says Vladimir Drebentsov, BP’s chief economist for Russia and the CIS. OPEC decided to take a chance, making a bet that the decline in prices will force the US to reduce its production of relatively expensive shale oil.
Mr. Yashin reminds that the oil industry in the US enjoys benefits. Yes, and its costs are lower than they could be, since the development is currently carried out in those areas where the oil infrastructure existed previously.
“Before the launch of new railway and pipeline capacities in 2013, the cost of many local sorts of shale oil was at the level of 50-60 dollars per barrel, since the raw materials could not be transported from the production sites. But even with such a high cost and lack of infrastructure, the US oil industry grew rapidly, adding about 50 million tons per year. Today, the level of profitability of shale oil production in the United States may be in the area of 40 dollars per barrel. For comparison: the cost of hydrocarbons from traditional sources is on average 15 dollars per barrel. ”
Nobody knows exactly how much oil is in shale. The Monterrey California reserves estimate was recently reduced by as much as 96%: from 13,7 billion barrels to 600 million barrels. These are the mistakes.
The decline in prices is beneficial to someone. For example, China.
The Celestial Empire uses a drop in oil prices to create strategic reserves. “Low prices will contribute to the development of a national program for the formation of strategic oil reserves,” Mr. Yashin quotes the words of SCI International expert Gao Jiang.
But Russia is definitely the loser. True, some market participants are optimistic in spite of everything. For example, the vice-president of Lukoil, Leonid Fedun, believes that the company will maintain profitability at a price of 25 dollars per barrel.
Western analysts believe, however, that Russia is overly dependent on world market conditions, and a decline in oil prices could destroy its economy. For example, A. Nardelli and S. Merler in the British newspaper «The Guardian» They write that the cheapness of oil is explained by the relatively weak demand of China and Europe and the inaction of OPEC. Russia, for a balanced budget, needs the price of oil around 105 dollars per barrel. True, the weakening of the ruble partially compensates for this value.
The material contains data from various studies, according to which the country loses about 12-14 billions of dollars a year with each decrease in the price of oil for 10 dollars per barrel. And in Russia, oil and gas account for about half of government revenues and more than 60% of the country's exports. Therefore, "the consequences can be significant."
Analysts believe Russia's life in oil and gas is a real disaster. Journalists point out that Russia's wealth is "disproportionately dependent on natural resources." According to World Bank estimates, natural capital in Russia is 43% of total wealth, and in Australia, Canada, Norway and New Zealand, this ratio varies between 8 and 13%.
December 15 Online "Independent newspaper" An article appeared by Anastasia Bashkatova, deputy head of the department of economics publications. She believes that the ruble is not falling at all because of the cheapening of oil.
In her opinion, the reasons for the fall of the ruble should be sought in distrust of the policy of the monetary authorities, in the flight of capital, in the reduction of investment activity and in the anti-Russian sanctions that isolated Russia from currency inflows. After all, other countries-exporters of oil currency does not fall.
From the beginning of 2014, the ruble fell by 74% to 57 rubles. for dollar versus 33 rub. in January, while Brent crude fell by about 42%. But in most oil exporters, there was no collapse of the national currency like the Russian one, the expert writes.
“The Russian authorities usually write off the devaluation of external factors - the fall in world oil prices. This was the explanation given, in particular, by the First Deputy Chairman of the Central Bank, Ksenia Yudaeva: “The course has changed for various reasons: there were fundamental reasons, lower oil prices, for example.” In the same way, the collapse of the USSR is often explained by falling oil prices, without explaining why other exporting countries did not collapse. ”
What is the government saying now?
Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev in the program "Vesti on Saturday" urged the population to remain calm: "You need a little patience and look at how events will develop, because we have already passed crises, and in the end all the same there was a rebound, the ruble strengthened, therefore now the most important thing is not to fuss, but just to look into the future. ”
By the way, as if confirming negative forecasts, the rise in oil prices on Monday did not at all strengthen the ruble. If a barrel of oil jumped in price, then the ruble now shows "record" results: for a dollar, they give more than 64 rubles!
As noted by RBC, the value of the dollar at the auctions on the Moscow 15 December December exceeded 64 rubles, and the value of the euro - 78 rubles. The collapse of the ruble occurred against the backdrop of the Central Bank's forecast for 2015 year: the regulator made the Russian economy fall by 4,8% in the coming year.
However, we would not completely dismiss the impact of oil prices on the exchange rate. Psychological expectations of the market has not been canceled. It can be expected that with a certain increase in oil prices, if it continues for several days, the ruble exchange rate will show a noticeable positive trend.
Observed and commented on Oleg Chuvakin
- especially for topwar.ru
- especially for topwar.ru
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