The Americans realized that without a ground military operation can not overcome the LIH. In this regard, the White House began to revise the strategy of dealing with the "Islamic state". The United States and the West cannot use their ground forces in a ground operation against ISIL on the territory of Iraq and Syria, because the countries of the Arab world will view such actions as occupying steps. How to be in the current situation, and what strategy of struggle should be used against LIH to eliminate it?
The fact is that the fate of hundreds of millions of people not only in the countries of the Persian Gulf, but also in other continents, depends on the right choice of a strategy to fight against the "Islamic state". The question is very complex and crucial for the moment, so politicians and military experts in the West think and work on this.
Political Islam is now in a booming environment and is trying to restore the Caliphate, abolished in 1924, in the countries of the Persian Gulf and North Africa. The Caliphate was founded in the 7 century by the Prophet Muhammad in Medina (Saudi Arabia). To stop the ferocity and barbarism of ISIS militants in the occupied territories, Washington is considering a new doctrine of the strategic course of the fight against terrorism.
The essence of the new strategy is as follows:
1. Arm and engage the Sunni tribes in the province of Anbar in the fight against ISIS.
2. Arm and train the newly recruited fighters for the Free Syrian Army and direct its efforts to overthrow the Assad regime.
3. Use the ground forces of Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Turkey in the implementation of ground operations against Damascus.
4. Strengthen air strikes on positions as ISIS, and the Assad regime.
5. To train the Iraqi army and peshmerga in the art of war.
All of these points form the basis of a new strategy for the struggle of the coalition against jihadists.
Barack Obama changed the original strategy of the fight against ISIS, he believes that first it is necessary to destroy the Assad regime and simultaneously bomb the positions of the "Islamic state". Washington chose such a struggle strategy in order to involve the ground forces of Arab countries and Turkey in the struggle against Damascus. In short, today the main goal of the coalition struggle is not ISIS, but the Assad regime.
It should be noted that Turkey will not fight against the "Islamic state", but is ready to conduct a ground military operation against the Damascus regime, and not alone. Arab countries will not take part in the ground operation together with the troops of Turkey against the Assad regime, because they regard Ankara as an enslaver and a hostile force since the days of the Ottoman Empire. This begs the question: how dangerous is the Assad regime for the international community? After all, Damascus does not threaten international security. Is not ISIS threaten the security of the world community?
Then why the fight against LIH Washington pushes into the background? Because Turkey wants so much, which in addition still insists on creating a no-fly and buffer zone in Syria. Thus, fulfilling the request of Ankara to strike at Damascus, Washington is trying to draw Turkey into the war in Syria. And Ankara’s calculation is such that after the fall of the Assad regime, the buffer zone (the territory of Syrian Kurdistan) is annexed, i.e. forcibly attach to its territory. Thereby depriving the Kurds of the opportunity to create a national autonomous entity in Syrian Kurdistan.
The coalition must know that Ankara is flirting with the West, it will never enter into a fight on the Syrian land. In addition, Washington is trying to create in Iraq from local tribes armed forces of up to 50 thousand people in order to fight against LIH. The West should understand that arming Sunni tribes and Shiite militants could lead Iraq to a sectarian and civil war. The consequences of such events can be very sad, because the "fire" in Iraq will spread to other countries in the Middle East.
If Ankara is involved in this war, it could be a great disaster for Turkey. It is desirable for the coalition to join Russia to this struggle. But Russia's policy towards the Islamic State is dual. Moscow benefits from the existence of ISIS as an opponent of the Western world, although in words Russia condemns terrorism. For Moscow, it is beneficial that the West is stuck in a war with ISIS as long as possible and deeper.
The above steps in the new strategy of the coalition struggle against ISIS are ineffective and unsuccessful. Washington’s approach to solving the strategic task of destroying ISIS is erroneous and unpromising. In the new fighting strategy, Barack Obama relies on the Syrian insurgent movement, on the Syrian free army to counter Assad. And in the fight against ISIS it relies on the Sunni tribes. All this is not effective and absurd. The new concept of the coalition is defeatist.
For curiosity, it should be noted that there are close mutually beneficial contacts and special relations between the Assad regime and the ISIL group, and Jabhat-al-Nusra. Therefore, the Assad aircraft do not bomb them, but bomb the positions of the Syrian Free Army. Bashar Asad leads a double game, he pulls time, although he knows very well that death will come to him from ISIS, and not from the coalition. Washington is well aware that with the help of moderate opposition, with the help of the Syrian Free Army, it will not overthrow the Assad regime, therefore it does not supply them weapon.
Barack Obama understands that these weapons easily fall into the hands of ISIS. An interesting fact is that the Assad regime buys fuel and lubricants from ISIS and the necessary weapons to fight the opposition. ISIS buys the necessary weapons and vehicles from the Iraqi army. Why does Turkey constantly raise the question that it is necessary to destroy the Assad regime? Because the fall of Assad is a victory for ISIS. The capital of the "Islamic Caliphate" will be Damascus, Ankara is interested in this, judging by the way the ISIL militants from Turkey attack Kobani. Assad knows that after the destruction of ISIS, all forces will be directed to overthrow him.
Therefore, Assad draws time in order to preserve both ISIS and the opposition. In the near future, the Americans will not be able to overthrow the Assad regime by any means. Today, some members of the Syrian Free Army are moving to the side of ISIS, because there they are given a good salary. If Assad disappears, it will be a brilliant victory of the "Islamic state". The Turkish army will not be able to enter Syria, and if this happens, ISIS, Jabhat-en-Nusra, Hezbollah, the Syrian Free Army, the Assad regime and the Kurdish militia will fight against it.
In the countries of the Persian Gulf, protest rallies with anti-Turkish rhetoric will be held in front of the Turkish Embassy. In addition, riots and terrorist attacks will begin in the cities of Turkey. Therefore, Ankara will not go on about the West. Washington could not force Turkey to join the anti-Russian sanctions of the West. Turkey did not allow Washington to use the military air base in Incirlik (Turkey) in the fight against the "Islamic state".
Turkish President Erdogan even accused the United States of arrogance and recklessness. This shows that, independently of the USA, Turkey conducts an independent foreign policy and considers itself a regional power in the Middle East. At this stage, neither the Saudi army, nor the Jordanian army, nor the Iraqi army are morally and psychologically ready to fight against ISIL by ground military operation. Similarly, the armed Syrian opposition will not fight against the "Islamic State" because it supports the creation of a caliphate.
An interesting fact is that at this stage more than 2000 foreigners for the Syrian Free Army under the guidance of US military specialists are undergoing military training in Turkey. Crossing the Turkish-Syrian border, these recruits will automatically go to the side of ISIS, they go to Syria to earn money. In practice, the United States and Turkey are deliberately preparing militants for ISIS. The trouble is that Washington does not know the psychology of extremists joining the ranks of ISIS. I emphasize once again that people from all over the world go to Syria to earn money by fighting in the ranks of ISIS. They do not need the Assad regime at all, they don’t even know who Assad is.
Once in Syria, these same American-Turkish militant students burn American flags and go over to the side of the Islamic State. Americans waste their time and energy on training the Iraqi army, and they should not be armed with modern weapons, because they are using their aircraft to drop the necessary weapons and medicines to ISIL fighters. In addition, ISIL buys vehicles and military equipment from the Iraqi army. In Iraq, complete anarchy and total corruption are going on, 45 billion dollars have disappeared in the country and no one knows where the money went.
The West is trying in vain to normalize the internal situation in Iraq, the people have no confidence in the Iraqi government, and in Iraqi society itself there are deep contradictions that led to its split and opposition. Ordinary citizens and soldiers of the Iraqi army do not want to shed blood in vain, because they know that in their country they have no future. To save the people from agony, it is necessary to divide Iraq into three states in a civilized manner. And then many problems will be removed from the agenda. The West and the entire international community should know that the militants of the “Islamic State” are fearless fanatics, they have a very strong religious ideology. Of the jihadists, almost every second suicide bomber, each of them dying brave wants to go to heaven to be able to dine with the Prophet.
How can you fight against ISIS suicide bombers? There is one recipe: only suicide bombers can fight against suicide bombers. Because of this, the “Islamic Caliphate” will not be able to destroy. Now the question should be this: do not allow the troops of the "Islamic State" to move to Jordan, Saudi Arabia and Lebanon. In these and other Gulf countries, jihadists are waiting for the Sunni population, much of whom will gladly accept them. In the future, all the countries of the Persian Gulf will be conquered by the troops of the Islamic State.
At this stage, all Islamic radical groups in various Muslim countries take the oath of allegiance to the leader of the Islamic State. For example, the Baluch terrorist group Jundallah, which terrorizes Iran, or the Egyptian terrorist group Ansar Bayt El-Maqdis, having recently taken the oath of allegiance to ISIL, is cruel in Egypt. Because of their atrocities, a state of emergency has been declared and curfews imposed in some areas of the Sinai Peninsula. ISIS militants are now, like Barack Obama, changing their strategy in the fight against the international coalition.
The new strategy of fighting ISIL includes: guerrilla warfare, the use of suicide bombers and the installation of explosive devices on roads and in populated areas. In this regard, the United States with its new strategy of struggle will not be able to defeat the militants of the "Islamic state". Iraqi Sunnis will never rise against ISIS, as they are perceived by terrorists as their own. The West should know that even if the "Islamic Caliphate" wins, then some of the militants will go to the West, someone to the underground, someone to Asia and Africa. The phenomenon of ISIS may appear anywhere, because everywhere in the "Islamic state" there are supporters and underground cells. In this period, about 20% of the population of Muslim countries support the creation of the "Islamic Caliphate". Of course, you can get rid of the "Islamic Caliphate", but it is impossible to get rid of radical Islamism, this is a giant phenomenon.
At this stage, the following should be done: stop the flow of foreign fighters into the ranks of ISIS, close the sources of funding for the Islamic State and would not prevent Washington from entering into dialogue with the leadership of the Islamic State. It should be noted that the "Islamic State" has created an impression of a good "brand" that attracts extremists, impoverished and unemployed elements from many countries of the world who join the ranks of ISIL with the goal of making good money, including at the expense of the loot in the captured points.
Based on the above, we can conclude that Barack Obama chose a not very effective strategy in the fight against ISIL. To date, thousands of Western military experts are advising the army command in Iraq in the hope that the Iraqi army will successfully conduct offensive operations against ISIL. This is a utopia and senseless undertaking. The Iraqi army does not need the experience of war and the art of warfare, this is all they have. On account of this is the third Iraq war, namely: the war between Iraq and Iran, the war of Saddam with America, the war with the "Islamic state".
The skills and experience of fighting the Iraqis are there. What is missing is the Iraqi army, this is a fighting spirit and psychological attitude. The reason for the defeat of the Iraqi army is the lack of morale among the soldiers and officers. A morale appears under the influence of promising national ideology. Why did the half-million Turkish army for the years of 30 lead an armed struggle against the guerrilla groups of the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) and did not achieve positive results?
The phenomenon of the Kurdistan Workers' Party is that its fighters were committed to the national ideology, they were well trained and trained on the basis of the national ideology. Without a definite and promising ideology, there can be no talk about the combat capability of the army, therefore, not Western specialists, but ideologists and military psychologists are needed. The Iraqi army must first be ideologically processed, and then psychologically adjusted to defeat the enemy. Without this, all efforts are useless.
Today there is only one single force in the world that can successfully fight against the ISIL jihadist suicide bombers. This force is the guerrilla units of the PKK and the Peshmerga. Weakly armed Kurdish militia in the fight against LIH holds only because the militia has a strong morale and a strong psychological attitude.
In Syria, the Kurdish militia took the brunt of the jihadists and the entire civilized world sees how Kurdish fighters stand to death in Kobani. Washington needs to rely on the Kurdish factor to succeed in the fight against ISIS. To do this, remove the Kurdistan Workers' Party from the list of terrorist organizations and equip it with modern weapons. There is no such country in the world, there is no such radical organization that could, like the PKK fighters, successfully wage a partisan war in conditions of rough terrain. In the ranks of the PKK 90% of the fighters are ready to sacrifice themselves for the sake of victory over the enemy.
The PKK and Peshmerga tandem is the key to the success of the fight against ISIS jihadists. The coalition has no other way out of the current situation in the fight against ISIS, so the West should bet on the above tandem. This tandem, with the support of aviation from the air, will be able to eliminate the Islamic State, thereby relieving the international community of ISIL’s security threat. In order to successfully fight ISIS, the West should arm the Kurdish militia well, including bombers, helicopters, tanks, mortar and artillery guns. Peshmerga is the most reliable and consistent force in the region, which is ready and able to withstand ISIS.
The Peshmerga in the fight against ISIL sacrifices itself for the sake of Iraq. And what did Iraq do for the Peshmerga? The Iraqi government does not provide the Peshmerga with a salary, does not give them heavy weapons, and does not finance the treatment of seriously wounded Peshmerga abroad. Therefore, the Kurdish militia should fight against ISIS only within the Kurdish territory, and outside the Kurdish lands let the government forces of Iraq fight.
Washington should know that in the Middle East only Kurds are their reliable ally, they proved this even in the war against Saddam Hussein. In the Middle East, the United States will be able to consolidate its strategic and geopolitical influence due to the Kurdish factor. In this regard, Washington must support Erbil in holding a referendum on the status of Southern Kurdistan.
Using the current situation in the Middle East, the Kurds should first of all create their own independent state, and not strive to become a shock force in the fight against ISIS outside the Kurdish lands. Moreover, the Kurdistan Parliament has already formed a Kurdish independent election commission. In that historical moment President of the Regional Kurdistan, Mahsoud Barzani, must be decisive and responsible in the issue of the independence of Kurdistan.
To this end, a national congress (congress) should be convened in order to consolidate and coordinate all party and social forces in Kurdish society. Events related to the referendum and the national congress (congress) must be held before Navruz 2015.
Long live world peace!