In the shadow of big China
Russia didn’t fit in with the “American-style world” no matter how much its liberal elite wanted it. In Washington, they demanded so much (to eliminate the Russian nuclear weapon, to decentralize the country), that some parts of the “elite” understood that if you do everything, you can lose the country, and, consequently, your power. After all, the dream was completely different - to sit at the same table on an equal footing with the leaders of the United States, Britain and all others. If they were allowed to go around this table, they would be on frankly derogatory rights. Events in Ukraine put an end to even this format. Although the frankly comprador part is still strong, which will seek "peace at any cost", on the whole it can be said that the gap has already happened and the Kremlin began to look for alternative connections. Actually, the most natural alternative was China, but with a known number of reservations.
In a relatively recent past, the rulers of the Middle Empire considered themselves to be the rulers of the whole world, and all the surrounding nations barbarians. Good barbarians are those who accept the power of the Chinese emperor, and bad ones who do not. Europeans considered the barbarians, in spite of their technical superiority. The Chinese explained it this way: here the spider weaves a web that a person cannot weave, and European barbarians also build a technique that is beyond our power. But they are still barbarians, and we are civilized people. Perhaps, in difficult times, the leadership of the Russian Federation decided to cheat and play "good barbarians" until relations with the West are normalized or they can find other partners.
China does not need the destruction of Russia to the extent that the United States needs it. He would love to swallow the Far Eastern regions of the Russian Federation, but a full-scale war is not at all the price he is willing to pay. Even if the PLA succeeds in capturing some territories without nuclear war, the price (destroyed border provinces of China, destroyed Russian Far East, sanctions of the world community) will be prohibitively high. The maximum that he is ready for is a conditional “Crimean scenario”, but it is possible only with the collapse of the central government in Moscow with events similar to those of the 1991 or 1993 confrontations.
There is one more reason why Beijing will not in the foreseeable future strive for military confrontation with Moscow. Even if we assume that China won a military victory over the Russian Federation in the border regions and demands peace on its own terms, then it will have a fierce and irreconcilable enemy in the North, in addition to the existing enemies in the East and South. Need is Beijing? Hardly, given the other nuances of the geopolitical situation in the region. Now China has a whole arc of hostile or simply unfriendly states at its side. These are Japan, the Philippines, Taiwan, Vietnam, India. If desired, the list can be supplemented with one or two smaller countries. In this situation, it is highly desirable to have a neutral-friendly border in the north.
Judging by the development of events, the Chinese leadership has calculated all this. They want to see Russia in Beijing in the form of a stable northern satellite, which will regularly supply resources for the yuan. The last moment is key. The supply of raw materials for payment in the Chinese currency will forever tie the Russian Federation to the Celestial. After all, if the dollar and the euro can be merged anywhere, then the yuan officially goes only in one country. Of course, in China you can buy almost anything, but is it too highly dependent?
China is quite happy with the current Russian foreign policy - overlapping views on many issues, although not all. There is no need to go far for examples. In the current Ukrainian events, the Chinese are more likely to support Kiev than to Moscow (although the Chinese Foreign Ministry tries to speak out as vague and ambiguous as possible), and in Beijing they are extremely negative about any integration projects of Russians in Central Asia, which they consider practically their outer province. Almost as unfriendly, the Chinese press reacts to any, even imaginary, progress in relations between Russia and Japan. Our southern neighbor realizes that if a peace treaty and major trade agreements are concluded between the countries, he will no longer be able to dictate his terms exclusively.
Having come under sanctions, today Russia has chosen the lesser of two evils, continuing to remain an open country for cooperation. In the future, it will most likely continue to maneuver between the centers of power, without giving a decisive advantage to any of them. The essence of this policy is quite transparent. If the US and its allies succeed in crushing Beijing in one way or another, their efforts to dismember Russia will be tripled. If China wins a victory in the Pacific direction, then it may well turn its gaze to the North.
The strategy "and ours and yours" is not new. So, for example, Finland successfully developed throughout the entire Cold War. But in the case of Russia, diplomatic diplomacy will be required in order not to get stuck tightly in one of the opposing blocs while our country will recuperate.
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