Military Review

In the shadow of big China

16
The 21st century is the century of confrontation between “the world in an American way” and the conditional “peace in a Chinese way”. In this confrontation, Russia will have to exercise maximum caution, cunning and resilience in order to survive and not turn into a satellite of any of the forces. If this works out, then its value as a major neutral power will become obvious to everyone, and both centers of power will not spare the gingerbread to pull the Russian Federation to their side.



Russia didn’t fit in with the “American-style world” no matter how much its liberal elite wanted it. In Washington, they demanded so much (to eliminate the Russian nuclear weapon, to decentralize the country), that some parts of the “elite” understood that if you do everything, you can lose the country, and, consequently, your power. After all, the dream was completely different - to sit at the same table on an equal footing with the leaders of the United States, Britain and all others. If they were allowed to go around this table, they would be on frankly derogatory rights. Events in Ukraine put an end to even this format. Although the frankly comprador part is still strong, which will seek "peace at any cost", on the whole it can be said that the gap has already happened and the Kremlin began to look for alternative connections. Actually, the most natural alternative was China, but with a known number of reservations.

In a relatively recent past, the rulers of the Middle Empire considered themselves to be the rulers of the whole world, and all the surrounding nations barbarians. Good barbarians are those who accept the power of the Chinese emperor, and bad ones who do not. Europeans considered the barbarians, in spite of their technical superiority. The Chinese explained it this way: here the spider weaves a web that a person cannot weave, and European barbarians also build a technique that is beyond our power. But they are still barbarians, and we are civilized people. Perhaps, in difficult times, the leadership of the Russian Federation decided to cheat and play "good barbarians" until relations with the West are normalized or they can find other partners.

China does not need the destruction of Russia to the extent that the United States needs it. He would love to swallow the Far Eastern regions of the Russian Federation, but a full-scale war is not at all the price he is willing to pay. Even if the PLA succeeds in capturing some territories without nuclear war, the price (destroyed border provinces of China, destroyed Russian Far East, sanctions of the world community) will be prohibitively high. The maximum that he is ready for is a conditional “Crimean scenario”, but it is possible only with the collapse of the central government in Moscow with events similar to those of the 1991 or 1993 confrontations.

There is one more reason why Beijing will not in the foreseeable future strive for military confrontation with Moscow. Even if we assume that China won a military victory over the Russian Federation in the border regions and demands peace on its own terms, then it will have a fierce and irreconcilable enemy in the North, in addition to the existing enemies in the East and South. Need is Beijing? Hardly, given the other nuances of the geopolitical situation in the region. Now China has a whole arc of hostile or simply unfriendly states at its side. These are Japan, the Philippines, Taiwan, Vietnam, India. If desired, the list can be supplemented with one or two smaller countries. In this situation, it is highly desirable to have a neutral-friendly border in the north.

Judging by the development of events, the Chinese leadership has calculated all this. They want to see Russia in Beijing in the form of a stable northern satellite, which will regularly supply resources for the yuan. The last moment is key. The supply of raw materials for payment in the Chinese currency will forever tie the Russian Federation to the Celestial. After all, if the dollar and the euro can be merged anywhere, then the yuan officially goes only in one country. Of course, in China you can buy almost anything, but is it too highly dependent?

China is quite happy with the current Russian foreign policy - overlapping views on many issues, although not all. There is no need to go far for examples. In the current Ukrainian events, the Chinese are more likely to support Kiev than to Moscow (although the Chinese Foreign Ministry tries to speak out as vague and ambiguous as possible), and in Beijing they are extremely negative about any integration projects of Russians in Central Asia, which they consider practically their outer province. Almost as unfriendly, the Chinese press reacts to any, even imaginary, progress in relations between Russia and Japan. Our southern neighbor realizes that if a peace treaty and major trade agreements are concluded between the countries, he will no longer be able to dictate his terms exclusively.

Having come under sanctions, today Russia has chosen the lesser of two evils, continuing to remain an open country for cooperation. In the future, it will most likely continue to maneuver between the centers of power, without giving a decisive advantage to any of them. The essence of this policy is quite transparent. If the US and its allies succeed in crushing Beijing in one way or another, their efforts to dismember Russia will be tripled. If China wins a victory in the Pacific direction, then it may well turn its gaze to the North.

The strategy "and ours and yours" is not new. So, for example, Finland successfully developed throughout the entire Cold War. But in the case of Russia, diplomatic diplomacy will be required in order not to get stuck tightly in one of the opposing blocs while our country will recuperate.
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16 comments
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  1. parusnik
    parusnik 28 November 2014 08: 00
    +3
    Whatever article, on any topic .. the idea is slipping Russia should be dismembered .. minus set ..
    1. Ataman
      Ataman 28 November 2014 08: 25
      +6
      Since when should a leading nuclear power become someone's satellite? Do not be shy about your complexes, especially nuclear ones ...
      1. Lindon
        Lindon 28 November 2014 09: 19
        +4
        Quote: Ataman
        Since when should a leading nuclear power become someone's satellite? Do not be shy about your complexes, especially nuclear ones ...


        Before Primakov’s turn over the Atlantic, Russia was a satellite of the United States. Only the bombing of Yugoslavia sobered up the Kremlin.
        1. Talgat
          Talgat 29 November 2014 22: 41
          +2
          Why does the author say that China supports Kiev and not the Russian Federation? It is obvious that China not only supports but literally "props" the Russian Federation with its back in this conflict with the West. lending, financing, replacement of Western markets by the market - and all this is also profitable for China - in addition, they finally pull the Russian Federation over to their side

          Read what the Chinese say about Crimea and the conflict in Ukraine - you can’t call it support for Kiev - even an article recently criticized China for supporting the Russian Federation came out on Ukrainian News the other day - read

          In Central Asia, I also disagree with the author - in fact, China and Russia have clear cooperation with the goal of preventing states and subsequent instability - and in Kazakhstan, too, China’s opposition to integration into the Eurasian Union is not visible - China, unlike the West, is clearly not afraid of Eurasian integration - He does not consider the enemy at this stage of history - rather an ally in the confrontation with the West and Japan
    2. Kibalchish
      28 November 2014 08: 42
      +15
      The idea is that Russia should avoid this. It cannot be defeated by military means, therefore, all hostile forces (external and internal) will strive precisely to divide it into parts, which will be much easier to deal with. And this can be done in various ways. The author is trying to consider these paths. The same, by the way, is true for the USA, China, etc. - all these countries can be defeated only by tearing apart.
      The task of the Russian Federation will remain as a single state and finally start progress - technical, moral, economic, etc. For this, it is important to learn that Russia has no friends. Almost everyone is a potential enemy - this is how the world works. Even "dad" Belarusian is a very conventional friend to us.

      PS
      1. Venier
        Venier 28 November 2014 23: 30
        0
        For this it is important to learn that Russia has no friends.
        Why is it so categorical, there are friends, there are real brothers. Another thing is that even in friendship, you don’t have to be boobies. This is just the Russian saying: simplicity is worse than theft.
    3. Lindon
      Lindon 28 November 2014 09: 24
      +2
      Quote: parusnik
      Whatever article, on any topic .. the idea is slipping Russia should be dismembered .. minus set ..


      The partition of Russia - TABU? And how did Filandia appear after the collapse of RI? And how did the CIS appear after the collapse of the USSR? And what about the Republic of Ichkeria? - After all, the CTO regime was abolished in Chechnya for only 5 years, as in the 2009 year. What a short memory some have. In the USSR, every pioneer knew that in the United States hatched plans for the collapse of the USSR-Russia. And it turns out to be a myth and writing a taboo on this topic?
      1. silver_roman
        silver_roman 28 November 2014 12: 31
        0
        Quote: Lindon
        The partition of Russia - TABU?

        Let's be objective: the Finns are too ... "different" people. As well as the Balts. I would say this: history has simply weeded them out. The scheme according to which the USSR spread its influence in advance is extremely difficult and unprofitable: to take to "your home" and also to build factories, ports and shipyards, generously socially finance (I think it will not be news to anyone that the Baltics lived the fatter of all in the USSR) ...
        Americans make it much easier: they take the ruling regime by the balls, luring all the capital into their banks, and thus manage from outside. You don't have to fork out for the development of a "victim", just collect tribute in the form of reserves in your government bonds.
        I think now the Russian Federation is beginning to understand this and the same EAEU confirms this. Nevertheless, we distribute our hydrocarbons in kopeks and, moreover, we do not control prices. Rollbacks are shorter.
    4. silver_roman
      silver_roman 28 November 2014 12: 22
      0
      and this is your reason for the minus? Now is not the time for Yara-patriotism. The threat of dismemberment always hung over Russia (in all its manifestations), and this was precisely what gave it strength and aspiration.
      First of all, there should be a rough and dry pragmatism. Already 20 years ago, the rolls were relaxed - they began perestroika in a capitalist fashion ... the result is known to everyone.
      Article set + unambiguously. This problem is obvious, I would even say the main one and it will pop up many times.

      ps By the way, Camran can cool China a little. this is of course a drop in the ocean, but as if a drop hints ...
  2. Nayhas
    Nayhas 28 November 2014 08: 14
    +1
    If this succeeds, then the value of it as a major neutral power will become obvious to everyone, and both centers of power will not spare the gingerbread in order to drag Russia to their side.

    Stupidity squared. With absolutely no effort, China got the whole of Russia at its disposal. The so-called "Russian rulers" probably do not just crawl on their knees before the Chinese leadership, "Well, take our gas!" and "give me money!" ...
    1. Dreamwriter
      Dreamwriter 28 November 2014 13: 31
      +1
      Yeah. And most importantly, everyone in our guide is so stupid that having complete information about real events - the information that you never had access to and not the fact that you will ever be - crawl on your knees in front of China and do not understand that you without studying any political processes, you see.
  3. pinecone
    pinecone 28 November 2014 08: 21
    0
    Quote: Nayhas

    Stupidity squared. With absolutely no effort, China got the whole of Russia at its disposal. The so-called "Russian rulers" probably do not just crawl on their knees before the Chinese leadership, "Well, take our gas!" and "give me money!" ...


    Those are still "friends". They do not lend money, and in connection with the fall in oil prices, they will demand a discount on gas.
    1. Nayhas
      Nayhas 28 November 2014 08: 42
      -4
      Quote: pinecone
      Those are still "friends". They do not lend money, and in connection with the fall in oil prices, they will demand a discount on gas.

      Because in China they understand that the deterioration of the situation in Russia is only in their hands, so why not help Putin and Co. until ... the rulers of Russia should forget their imperial ambitions, become obedient bunnies with shaking ears ... like Rakhmon for example. ..
      1. mambito
        mambito 28 November 2014 09: 01
        +4
        What friendship, what are you talking about? This is politics. And who is there, who almost crawled on his knees? Yes, China is certainly stronger than us economically, but it’s our fault and do not forget who helped them in this, they close the flow of gas and oil to us, they can close the flow of cheap products from them, it’s beneficial and don't blush (we’ll blush in front of the girls).
  4. Rash
    Rash 28 November 2014 08: 44
    +2
    Put a minus. The same in content and meaning alarmist article was published a few days ago.
    1. Lindon
      Lindon 28 November 2014 09: 35
      +1
      Quote: Rash
      Put a minus. The same in content and meaning alarmist article was published a few days ago.


      Why is the alarmist? China fought at Damansky and Zhalanashkole against the USSR. Russia is not the USSR, and China has already been rearmament by modern standards. Not to take into account how China has changed is hatred and big mistake.
    2. Very smart
      Very smart 28 November 2014 12: 40
      +1
      Quote: Rash
      The same in content and meaning alarmist article was published a few days ago.

      "This is politics, my boy!" In fact, the lack of the leadership of the Russian Federation in this matter was the fact that gas pipelines to China did not begin to be built 4-5 years ago. Now they would work, and the statements of Europe "Where will they go with their gas!" would cover Europe itself with a copper basin. Germany sits on the Nord Stream and escapes, while Southern Europe sucks .... a paw and puffs for the unfinished South Stream. But gas still had to be sold and bought, but where to turn the valve - that's where it would start! And the prices would be immediately leveled. And China would not go anywhere - it competed with Europe and bowed. But someone Medvedev 4 years ago spun ... than he could in front of Europe and stared at his iPhone! Drank ...
      As for relations with China, Mr. Lavrov is not for nothing called the second Gromyko. Everything is clear there. It seems that Lavrov is not mistaken, although he does the job. Yes, what a matter!
  5. new communist
    new communist 28 November 2014 10: 46
    0
    The truth is that after 2020, as a result of the 3rd world thermonuclear, ALL states of the WORLD, as public institutions, will cease to exist. The world will be given to the ideology of questioned fascism.
  6. Crang
    Crang 28 November 2014 14: 24
    +1
    Have a rest. We will gain strength. Let China drag it.
  7. Venier
    Venier 28 November 2014 23: 12
    -1
    He put a plus. In principle, the author reasonably argues. This is the very policy that China has been adhering to since the end of the 60's. The only difficulty is that it will be more difficult for us to withstand. We and the West have a specific aggravation in relations, and this is to put it mildly.
  8. I think so
    I think so 29 November 2014 00: 29
    -1
    The article is very weak both in the analysis of China and in the prospects for Russia. And the most dangerous thing is that she INITIALLY offers an orientation toward betrayal of any of her ally. And this is the key point! Such a policy may well end up like this - BOTH THE BETRAYABLE WILL GATHER AND SEPARATE THE TRAITOR into parts by stipulating their share. As a result of the proposed "cunning" policy of betrayal, THE PROBABILITY OF TOTAL DEFENSE INCREASES. It is much more correct to pursue a policy of a POLYPOLAR OR BIPOLAR WORLD, when groups of countries are FIXED AND FOR A LONGER tied to their pole, and a break is fraught with major shocks. Such a world is much safer than the WORLD OF SALES Russia proposed in the article.
    1. Venier
      Venier 29 November 2014 01: 02
      0
      And what does corruption have to do with it? It is about observing your interests, and no more. Dear, you somehow misunderstand everything. So, your allied loyalty can be interpreted as dog ministry.