Malaysia Airlines' Boeing 777 airplane (Amsterdam - Kuala Lumpur) flew from Amsterdam Schiphol Airport to 10: 14 UTC (14: 14 MSK) 17.07.2014: and had to arrive at its destination in 06: 10 local time (22: XNNX: 10: XNNX: 2 local time: 10 local time) XNUMX: XNUMX MSK).
The flight was carried out by the third swing crew. According to the British newspaper Daily Mail, the two crews changed shifts so as not to fly over the combat zone. Pilots expressed concerns about the risky route.
In 16: 15 Kiev time (14: 15 GMT), Ukrainian air traffic controllers first lost contact with him, and then in 16: 20 Kiev time (14: 20 GMT), he disappeared from the radar of the Dnepropetrovsk regional dispatch center. In 16: 45, Kiev time (14: 45 GMT), an emergency beacon signal was detected on an airliner three kilometers north-west of the village of Grabovo, Shakhtyorsky district, Donetsk region, which is located approximately 78 km from the border with Russia . Subsequently, the remains of the aircraft found burning on the ground in Ukraine. The plane crashed near the village of Hrabovo (near the town of Torez). None of the passengers and crew members survived.
2. The need for a situational analysis
The need for this type of analysis is caused by the need to identify the external and internal factors that caused the death of Boeing 777, as well as to determine the circle of people involved in this situation and the parties interested in extracting any benefit from this event. As well as determining the circle of persons legally responsible for this event.
3. The concept of the situation and situational analysis
A situation is a combination of internal and external factors, circumstances, conditions, active and passive acting forces and material resources.
Situational analysis allows, based on a deeper understanding of the situation and the dynamics of its development, to develop and adopt more substantiated conclusions, as well as to foresee the possible occurrence of crisis situations and take timely measures to prevent them.
4. Analytic group
In order to conduct a situational analysis, the Russian Union of Engineers created an analytical group under the leadership of Ivan Andrievsky - a team of highly qualified specialists who are able to conduct an examination in the process of situational analysis.
The analytical group included:
• 1-level experts - highly qualified specialists with professional knowledge and experience in one of the areas or problems that are directly related to the object of situational analysis.
• Level 2 experts are highly qualified specialists who are able to analyze and evaluate the situation as a whole.
• technologist - a specialist who has the necessary professional knowledge and experience in organizing and conducting a situational analysis.
• analyst - a specialist who has both the necessary professional knowledge and experience in analyzing situations in this area, as well as experience accompanying situational analysis, preparation of analytical reports and conclusions.
The final work was first of all shown to the President of the Center for International Geopolitical Analysis - Colonel General of the Reserve, Doctor historical Sciences, Professor Leonid Grigorievich Ivashov and received his positive assessment, then it was finalized and presented to the public.
5. Baseline data for situational analysis
In order to conduct a situational analysis, experts from the Russian Union of Engineers took into account the following initial data:
• Conclusions from the engineering analysis of the causes of the death of the Boeing 777 earlier conducted by RSI experts;
• Assessment of the airspace in the vicinity of which the Boeing 777 died;
• Evaluation of the military infrastructure in the area of the death of Boeing 777;
• Evaluation of the mechanism for making management decisions that resulted in the destruction of a civilian aircraft and the structure of command and control of troops in the area of the antiterrorist operation (ATO) by the authorities of Ukraine;
• Assessment of the state of the military-political situation in the area of the death of Boeing 777 on the eve and after the disaster;
• Evaluation of coverage of the death of Boeing 777 by officials and the media (statements by leaders of European countries, as well as the United States and Malaysia);
• Investigation into the causes of the crash of the Malaysian Boeing 777;
• Preliminary results of the investigation of the Security Council of the Netherlands from 09.09.2014;
• Conclusions from other experts.
5.1. Findings from an engineering analysis previously conducted by RSI experts on the causes of the death of Boeing 777
According to the analysts of the Russian Union of Engineers, the death of the Boeing 777 occurred as a result of its complex defeat both with the missile armament of a combat aircraft, using an air-to-air missile melee, and with cannon weapons using a 30-mm aviation gun or container SPPU-22 with a double-barreled 23-mm gun GSH-23L. At the same time, when shooting at a target, a laser rangefinder or a laser sight could be used, which can significantly increase the accuracy of shooting. The nature of the damage and the expansion of the fragments indicate the use of two types weapons: There are also round holes in the wreckage of Boeing, which are usually obtained as a result of cannon shots, and tearing holes, typical of missiles with arrow-shaped striking elements (for example, P-27).
5.2. Evaluation of the territory and airspace where the Boeing 777 died
The territory of Donetsk Oblast of Ukraine, in the area of the death of Boeing 777 (northwest of the village of Grabovo, Shakhtarsky District, Donetsk Region, which is located in 78 km from Donetsk and approximately 50 km from the border with Russia) 17.07.2014 was controlled by the militia of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People's Republic ( DNR). At the same time only ground was under control, but not air.
On this territory, fighting was conducted between the Armed Forces of Ukraine, battalions of the National Guard of Ukraine and volunteer battalions on the one hand, and the DPR militia detachments on the other hand.
The fighting was conducted, including with the use of heavy weapons by the government forces and the formations of Ukraine.
A few days before the crash, according to statements by the Ukrainian authorities, other incidents with aircraft occurred in the conflict zone: July 14 in the Luhansk region at an altitude of 6,5 kilometers An-26 was shot down, July 16 was shot down by Su-25 and another Su-25 was fired from MANPADS. In total for June-July 2014 of the year, more than ten manned aircraft of the Ukrainian Air Force were reported to be lost in the area.
8 July 2014 Kiev closed the airspace in the combat zone with the following wording: “In order to ensure an adequate level of flight safety, the airspace above the territory of the ATO [Anti-terrorist operation] is closed to carry out any flights of civil aircraft in the interests of state aviation. The corresponding ban issued by the State Aviation Service. "
The Ukrainian authorities closed the airspace above the conflict zone for civil aviation flights from July 1 to a height of 7900 meters (26000 feet), and from July 14 to a height of 9800 meters (32000 feet). The International Air Transport Association (IATA) stated that according to its data, there were no restrictions on flights in the space followed by the Malaysian airliner, and the European Organization for the Safety of Air Navigation indicates that the route was closed by the Ukrainian authorities echelon 320, and on echelon 330 (33000 feet), which followed the plane, flights were allowed. According to the airline’s press release, the MH17 flight plan provided for the use of 35000 ft echelon throughout the entire route through Ukraine’s airspace, but Ukrainian air traffic controllers instructed it to use 33000 ft echelon.
By the time the Malaysian Boeing 777 disappeared from radar screens, British Airways, all US airlines, Lufthansa, Air France and Australian Quantas have already added extra 20 minutes to their routes to bypass the danger zone in southeast Ukraine.
At the time of the death of the Boeing 777 in the airspace of Ukraine there were three civilian aircraft performing regular flights:
• Flight from Copenhagen to Singapore on 17: 17;
• Flight from Paris to Taipei at 17: 24;
• Flight from Amsterdam to Kuala Lumpur.
In addition, Russian means of controlling the air situation recorded a climb of Ukrainian Air Force aircraft, presumably Su-25, in the direction of the Malaysian Boeing 777. The removal of the Su-25 from Boeing 777 ranged from 3 to 5 km.
In Fig. 1 shows the international route on which the Boeing 777 was supposed to fly. It can be seen that in Poland the plane followed the corridor established earlier for these flights and then deviated from the course.
Fig. 1 - Flight Track Boeing 777
18.07.2014 high-level representative of the European dispatching service of Eurocontrol Brian Flynn said that due to the plane crash, about 350 flights a day, including 150 international, will be changed due to the ban on civil aviation flights over the territory of eastern Ukraine.
As stated in the preliminary report presented by the Netherlands side of 09.09.2014, “... the plane deviated from the course without permission. In 12: 53 (UTC or in 15.53 local time), the aircraft flew under the control of the Dnepropetrovsk air traffic control point, in the 2 control sector at FL330. At this point, the dispatcher asks the board if they can gain altitude and take FL350 to avoid intersections with another Boeing 777 that was flying behind. The board responds that it will not be able to take 350 and asks for further flight on 330. The dispatcher agrees, and in order to avoid dangerous approaches, he sends another liner to the 350. In 13: 00 crew MH17 requests permission to deviate from the course of twenty nautical miles to the left, for weather reasons. Dispatcher permits. After that, the board asks if the 340 train is available, the dispatcher temporarily rejects the request, indicating for the time being to remain on 330. In 13: 19: 53 (according to radar data), the board was in 3,6 nautical miles from the center line of the L980 route. That is, the plane deviated from the course. The dispatcher instructs the board to establish a direct course to the RND waypoint, due to the presence of other traffic. The liner team acknowledges receipt of instructions in 13: 19: 56. This was the last thing the dispatcher heard from the crew. In 4 seconds, in 13: 20: 00, the dispatcher sends the board permission to control the motion control after the RND waypoint immediately to the TIKNA point, but does not receive an answer ”(according to the information of the Expert magazine).
According to experts of the analytical group, one of the circumstances that caused increased interest in the media coverage of the death of the Boeing 777 was its deviation from the usual route to the north and the passage over the territory controlled by the DPR militia. And also, regarding the reasons for this deviation, different positions were expressed that contradict each other.
5.3. Evaluation of military infrastructure in the area of the death of Boeing 777
The military grouping involved in the ATO in eastern Ukraine consisted of units of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine (Armed Forces and Territorial Defense), the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Ukraine (units of the police and the National Guard), the State Border Service of Ukraine, the Security Service of Ukraine and the State Security Directorate of Ukraine. According to the statement of the Prime Minister of Ukraine Arseniy Yatsenyuk, as of August 2014, the group has reached the number of 50 000 people.
Forces and means of ground defense forces
According to the data provided by the Chief of the Main Operational Directorate - Deputy Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces Lieutenant-General Andrei Kartapolov at a special briefing by the Russian Defense Ministry on the crash of the MH17 flight in Ukraine, 21.07.2014, “on the day of the collapse of the Malaysian Boeing-777 groups of groups of groups of groups of groups of groups Ukrainian armed forces near the city of Donetsk consisted of three or four anti-aircraft missile battalion of the complex "Buk-М1". [...] In the morning of the same day, the Buk battery was discovered near the village of Zaroshchynskoye, which is 50 km east of Donetsk and 8 km south of Shakhtersk.
Representatives of the Russian Defense Ministry also reported that on the day of the death of the Malaysian Boeing, several radars of the Ukrainian battery of the Buk-М1 air defense system were fixed, and then the subsequent redeployment of the Bukov battery from the Zaroshchenskoye point closer to Donetsk.
At the same time, the fact that the militias do not and did not have their own planes and that there is no military need to form a grouping of the air defense system in this area draws attention to itself. In addition, in the absence of funds for the ATO, it is pointless to just move such a large amount of equipment without giving it any assignment. The second aspect of this issue is that only very high military leadership can move several air defense systems on the territory of Ukraine.
According to the data of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation, the intensity of work of the Ukrainian 17СXNNXX “Kupol-M9” radar stations of the Buk anti-aircraft complex maximally increased to July 18.
Fig.2 - Activity statistics of the Ukrainian radar
in the area of the death of the Malaysian Boeing 777
The Russian military recorded the work of the Kupol radar of the Ukrainian battery of the Buk-М1 air defense system on the day of the death of the Malaysian Boeing 777.
From the presented graph, it follows that July 15 operated 7 stations, July 16 - 8, and July 17 were already 9. Since July 18, the radar work intensity has sharply decreased and amounted to 2 — 3 stations operating daily.
Two questions arise:
1. To resolve what situation and what tasks were the SAMs deployed to this point?
2. Why exactly at this time and precisely at this hour did the activity of the radar stations that make up the air defense system increase, what were they looking for in the sky?
In fig. 3 provides information on the most likely airfields for combat aircraft in Ukraine, where pre-flight training could be carried out, the aircraft could be flown and returned.
1. Boryspil Air Base - 15 transport brigade An-30, Mi-8, An-26, Tu-134.
2. Vasilkov Airbase (UKKV) - Kyiv Oblast, 40 Fighter Brigade, Mig-29, L-39.
3. Vinnytsia Gavrishevka (UKWW) - Vinnytsia region, 456 transport brigade, An-26, An-24, Mi-8, Mi-9.
4. Zhuliany airbase - airport.
5. Zaporozhye airbase - IL-76, An-12, Mi-8.
6. Kaydaki airbase (Dnepropetrovsk) - airport.
7. Kirovske Air Base - Flight Test Center of the Air Force of Ukraine.
8. Kulbakino air base - 299 assault brigade SU-25, L-39, Su-24 - 33-th flight training center.
9. Melitopol airbase - Zaporozhye region, 25 air transport IL-76, IL-78.
10. Airbase Myrgorod - Poltava region, Su-27, 831 tactical aviation brigade (code ІАТА MXR, code ІКАО UKBM).
11. Nizhyn Air Base - An-32, Mi-8, Ministry of Emergency Situations of Ukraine (up to 1998, 199 ODRAP Tu-22Р).
12. Ozernoy airbase - 9 based IB Mig-29, Su-27 mixed.
13. Starokonstantinov air base - Khmelnitsky region, Su-24М, Su-24МР.
14. Chernobaevka airbase - Kherson region, Mi-24, Mi-8.
15. Chuguev Air Base - Kharkiv Region (HVVAUL), 203 Training Aviation Brigade, L-39, An-26, An-26Ш, Mi-8.
Fig. 3 - Airfield network in the area of the death of the Malaysian Boeing 777
As follows from fig. 4, most of the operating airfields are in range of combat use, for example, such aircraft as Mig-29, Su-25 or L-39 or the like.
Fig. 4 - Aviation Combat Radius
Su-25 1250 km
MiG-29 700 km
DPR militia forces in the area of the death of Boeing 777
On July 17.07.2014, 777, the Shakhtyorsk region, over which the death of the Boeing XNUMX occurred, was under the control of the self-defense forces of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People's Republic. The armed forces of the DPR at that time were equipped with light weapons, artillery systems, tanks and armored personnel carriers, the exact number of which has not been established. From anti-aircraft missiles were MANPADS "Igla". According to the Minister of Defense of the Lugansk People’s Republic Igor Plotnitsky on 07.07.2014/25/XNUMX, representatives of the LPR People’s Militia seized a military aircraft of the Ukrainian Air Force. It was about the Su-XNUMX attack aircraft, which is now undergoing repairs and will soon be able to serve the republic's militias. There were no other reports about this aircraft and the possibility of its combat use. There was also no information about the availability and even more about the use of aviation by the DNR forces.
The Ukrainian side did not find confirmation of the presence of the Buk-М1 air defense system’s militia forces capable of destroying airborne targets in the range of heights and speeds similar to those of the Boeing 777.
Even the Ukrainian authorities themselves refused to accuse the Boeing 777 of allegedly being shot down by the seized militias in Avdiivka air defense missile system.
In the first hours after the disaster, the adviser to the Minister of Internal Affairs, Anton Gerashchenko, said that the authorities had recorded the presence of the Buk installation in the militia, which was moving “in the area of the cities of Torez and Snezhnoye”. However, the same evening, a source in the leadership of the antiterrorist operation stated that the rebels in the south-east of Ukraine did not have weapons capable of shooting down an aircraft at a height above 10 km.
According to experts of the analytical group, the death of the Boeing 777 as a result of the use of aircraft armament could be followed only by the armed forces of the party to the conflict, which has combat aircraft, an aerodrome-technical network and navigation equipment, as well as trained aviation and ground personnel. It should be noted that the DPR forces did not have either one or the other.
5.4. Evaluation of the mechanism for the adoption of managerial military-political decisions that entailed the destruction of a civilian aircraft and the structure of command and control of troops in the zone of the Anti-Terrorist Operation (ATO) by the Ukrainian authorities
In accordance with the Law of Ukraine dated 31 of May 2005 of the year No. 2600-IV (with amendments and additions) “On the fight against terrorism”, the fight against terrorism is based in particular on the principle of unity of command in guiding the forces and means that are involved in conducting antiterrorist operations.
According to the law of Ukraine “On Combating Terrorism”, the chief of the anti-terrorist operation is the first deputy head of the Security Service of Ukraine, who is also the head of the anti-terrorist center of the special services.
It is under his team that all subdivisions of other power structures, which have parts for combating terrorists, include the Ministry of Internal Affairs, the State Border Service, the Ministry of Defense, the State Guard Directorate, as well as authorized persons of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and other central authorities, who are coordinated to the headquarters Antiterror
Information about the activities of the ATO headquarters, which is held in the Donbas, is classified as state secrets. Any interest from journalists or the public to the leadership of the ATO causes an extremely painful reaction from representatives of the ATO and the competent authorities.
Segregation of duties
According to the Law on Combating Terrorism, the key role in the fight against terrorism is assigned to the SBU. In addition to the Security Service of Ukraine, the Ministry of Internal Affairs, the Ministry of Defense, the State Border Service (State Border Guard Service), the State Emergency Service (State Emergency Situations Service), the State Penitentiary Service, the State Guard Department and other agencies are required to search for terrorists.
Coordination of all security and civilian agencies involved, according to the law, in the ATO, carries out the Anti-Terrorism Center (ATC) under the SBU. The ATC has its headquarters, which at the time of the death of Boeing led the fighting in the Donbass, and the Interdepartmental Coordination Commission (IWC) of the ATC, which coordinates the activities in the ATO area.
For the direct day-to-day management of the ATO and control over the situation in its area, the operational headquarters of the ATO operates, the key role in which belongs to the Security Service of Ukraine, the Ministry of Defense and the Ministry of Internal Affairs.
The first head of the ATC in a real armed conflict in the Donbass and the paralysis of the authorities was and. about. the head of this structure, Vitaly Tsyganok, appointed to this post on March 1.
July 7 Petro Poroshenko appointed to the post of head of the ATC Vasyl Gritsak. Perhaps this appointment meant the refusal of the leadership of the Security Service of Ukraine from claims to the actual leadership of the fighting in the ATO zone. From this point on, the main responsibility for their conduct finally fell on the military, namely, the General Headquarters of the Armed Forces and its head, Viktor Muzhenko.
Since June, the role of the ICC as a coordinating body has significantly decreased, while at the same time the role of the “small headquarters” - the operational headquarters of the ATO, in which the main role is played by Victor Muzhenko, Vasily Gritsak, Sergey Yarovoy and the National Guard commander Stepan Poltorak, has increased.
Each of them relies on the branched apparatus of its departments, if necessary using the direct support of ministers. For example, Nikolay Balan, deputy commander of the National Guard, is responsible for equipping the National Guard under the ATO zone with equipment and weapons, who previously held the post of head of the Crimean territorial command of the Interior Ministry troops.
At the same time, constant control over the activities of the National Guard in the ATO zone is carried out personally by Interior Minister Arsen Avakov.
Thus, as a result of the lack of clear regulation of the authorities and decision-making competencies in the military operations in the ATO area, doubling and tripling of the command bodies in its structure, there are signs of “controlled chaos” and a desire to avoid personal responsibility for the orders given.
At the same time, in the armed forces of any state there is a clear system of official hierarchy of decision-making and return of combat orders. Especially, if units and subunits of various types of armed forces are used in the combat zone.
In this case, they used both air defense ground units providing air reconnaissance and issuing information on the air situation at command posts, as well as air units including not only combat aircraft and their crews, but also a large number of ground personnel, including navigators , fire spotters, airfield support personnel, navigation services, etc. Ie there is an application in one place of various types of troops, forces and means.
According to experts of the analytical group, it is logical to assume that the decision on the combat use of various types of military force, especially during the conduct of hostilities by units of various law enforcement agencies, is competent to accept only an official with authority over the troops and armed forces subordinate to him. Those. top management ATO.
5.5. Assessment of the state of the military-political situation in the area of the death of Boeing 777 on the eve and after the disaster
14 April 2014, Alexander Turchinov signed a decree on the conduct of the ATO in eastern Ukraine and on April 15 announced the start of the ATO in the north of the Donetsk region.
In accordance with the Law of Ukraine dated 31 of May 2005 of the year No. 2600-IV (with amendments and additions) “On the fight against terrorism”:
• anti-terrorist operation - a complex of coordinated special measures aimed at preventing, preventing and stopping criminal acts carried out with a terrorist purpose, freeing hostages, neutralizing terrorists, minimizing the consequences of a terrorist act or other crime carried out with a terrorist purpose;
• the area of the antiterrorist operation — areas of the terrain or water area determined by the leadership of the antiterrorist operation, vehicles, buildings, structures, premises and territories or waters adjacent to them, and within which the marked operation is carried out;
• The regime in the area of the antiterrorist operation is a special procedure that can be introduced in the area of the antiterrorist operation during the time it is conducted and provide for the provision of anti-terrorism entities with special powers provided by this Law to free hostages, ensure the safety and health of citizens the area of the antiterrorist operation, the normal functioning of government bodies, local self-government systematic way, enterprises, institutions and organizations.
To manage a specific ATO and control the forces and means involved in the implementation of anti-terrorism activities, an operational headquarters is formed, headed by the head of the Anti-Terrorism Center under the Security Service of Ukraine or his deputy.
It is the head of the operational headquarters that determines the limits of the area of the antiterrorist operation, decides on the use of forces and means involved in its conduct. And if necessary, submits proposals for the state of emergency in Ukraine or in certain regions for consideration by the NSDC. Intervention in the operational management of the antiterrorist operation of any persons, regardless of position, is not allowed. That is, in fact, even the President has no right to give instructions during the ATO.
Map of military operations of the ATO on 17 July 2014 13: 36 - according to segodnya.ua
Aviation of the Armed Forces of Ukraine resumed the implementation of combat missions in the area of the ATO. Combat aircraft of the Ukrainian Armed Forces struck several pinpoint strikes at Grad multiple rocket launchers, roadblocks, support points, manpower assemblies and fighters-mercenary vehicles.
During the day, 12 made flights of Air Force planes and 17 flights of helicopters of the Army aviation of the Ground Forces with the aim of attacking militant positions, delivering humanitarian supplies and search and rescue support.
Map of military operations of the ATO on 18 July 2014 13: 11 - according to segodnya.ua
Over the past 24 hours of the antiterrorist operation, they advanced 10 — 15 km inland into the territory controlled by the militants and close the ring around them in the Luhansk region and the state border of Ukraine. This was stated by the speaker of the Information Center of the National Security and Defense Council Andrei Lysenko. The terrorists impede a public international investigation into the crash of the Malaysian Airlines Boeing 777 aircraft and interfere with the work of Ukrainian specialists at the site of the tragedy.
5.6. Evaluation of the coverage of the death of Boeing 777 officials (speeches by European leaders, the United States and Malaysia)
According to the New York Times, Vladimir Putin phoned Barack Obama on Thursday 17 July, Washington time in the morning. The subject of the conversation was new US sanctions - the President of Russia said that they were unfair, and the President of the United States demanded that he stop supporting separatists in the east of Ukraine. The conversation was tense, nervous and lasted about an hour. Around the middle of the conversation, Putin was informed about the downed plane, and he told Obama about it. Details at that time were not yet known, and the presidents continued to talk about sanctions. On the same day, it became clear that President Obama should make a statement on this matter.
The text of the statement sent speechwriters from the White House. Josh Ernest handed the text to Obama, saying that, according to unconfirmed reports, the American 23 was on board the downed liner. The statement of the President was brief. He said that the US government is clarifying the circumstances of the tragedy and is in constant contact with interested parties. At that moment, when the President was making his statement, Vice President Joe Biden talked with Petro Poroshenko, who told him about the intercepted conversation of the separatists, where they say they shot down a civilian plane.
That is, the original source of information about who could do this was Petro Poroshenko.
The next day, July 18, Barack Obama made a detailed statement on Boeing: “There is evidence indicating that the plane was shot down by a ground-to-air missile fired from inside Ukraine, which is controlled by separatists supported by Russia.”
BUT THE START-UP PLACES, THE START-UP CERTIFICATES HAVE NOT SUBMITTED TO THE FIRST TIME, although the Americans had a satellite over this place at this hour and know exactly what happened. From the satellite, such a launch can be seen clearly, and if these confirmations existed, the world would have seen them a long time ago from the expanded press conference of the American special services.
“We also know that this is not the first aircraft shot down in eastern Ukraine. In recent weeks, pro-Russian separatists shot down a Ukrainian transport plane and a Ukrainian helicopter, and also claimed responsibility for the shot down Ukrainian fighter. Moreover, we know that these separatists receive ongoing assistance from Russia, including weapons and training. They also get heavy weapons, including anti-aircraft systems. ”
Facebook Adviser to the Minister of Internal Affairs of Ukraine, Anton Gerashchenko (18: 36: 21):
“16.20: In the area of the village of Grabovo in Torez, a missile from a Malaysia Airlines flight was launched from a Kuala Lumpur-Amsterdam flight by launching a missile from the Buk air defense system. The airliner flew at an altitude of about 10 kilometers when the terrorists used the Buk air defense system. According to official data, there were 280 passengers and 15 crew members on board. The terrorists confirmed the fact that the missiles hit the plane, calling it ANOM, and not Boeing. ”
Advisor to the Minister of Internal Affairs of Ukraine Zoryan Shkiryak after the death of a Malaysian Boeing aircraft in the east of the country called on the US and NATO to help the Ukrainian military in conducting a special operation against the militias. "The United States must immediately provide us with modern high-precision weapons and support from the air, and NATO should launch a ground defense operation," wrote Shkiryak on Facebook.
Statement by the UK Government:
“While we do not have specific information about exactly how this tragedy occurred. Therefore, I do not want to speculate at this stage. We are confident that the investigation of the incident should be led by the UN. We are ready to assist in the investigation to provide resources and specialists to the accident investigation unit (AAIB). We believe that there were representatives from the UK on board. We check passenger data to determine the number and identity of UK citizens. We will inform the families of the victims as soon as we receive additional information. ”
Malaysian Prime Minister said that although the Ukrainian side considers the plane shot down, "at this stage Malaysia cannot reliably determine the cause of the tragedy, but we must find out and find out exactly what happened to this flight." He also said that Malaysia would be directly involved in the investigation, and if it turned out that the plane was indeed shot down, Malaysia would insist that the perpetrators be promptly brought to justice.
British Prime Minister David Cameron called the incident "a direct result of Russia's destabilization of an independent state" and said that "if President Putin does not change his approach to the situation in Ukraine, Europe and the West will have to fundamentally change their approach to Russia."
Australian Prime Minister Tony Abbott accused Russia of supplying an anti-aircraft missile system to the militia, from which the Malaysian Boeing 777 was shot down. “We don’t want to exacerbate the situation, but if, as it seems now, the plane was hit by ground-to-air missiles, which Russia supplied, then Russia has a significant share of responsibility,” Abbott said. At the same time, he expressed confidence that the cause of the crash was the Kremlin’s desire to "stir up the water" in Ukraine.
“The Security Service of Ukraine opened criminal proceedings under Article 258 of the Criminal Code of Ukraine (an act of terrorism) in connection with the crash of a Malaysian aircraft in the Donetsk region. Open criminal proceedings under the "terrorist act", "- said the press center of the SBU.
The US Embassy in Moscow: “According to our estimate, the MN17 board was probably shot down by the Buk land-air missile from the territory controlled by the separatists in eastern Ukraine. We base this judgment on several factors:
Over the past month, we have noticed an ever-increasing amount of heavy weapons reaching the separatists across the border between Russia and Ukraine. Last weekend, Russia sent a convoy of military vehicles in the number of 150 vehicles to the separatists, including tanks, armored personnel carriers, artillery and multiple launch rocket systems. We also have information indicating that Russia provides training for separatist fighters at a facility in south-west Russia, and this training includes training in working with air defense systems.
Pro-Russian separatist militants have demonstrated ownership of ground-to-air missile systems and have shot down over a dozen aircraft in recent months, including two large transport aircraft.
At that time, when the connection with the flight MH17 disappeared, we spotted the launch of a rocket ground air from the area controlled by the separatists in eastern Ukraine. We think it was a Beech rocket.
The separatist bargaining talks posted on YouTube by the Ukrainian government indicate that the separatists possessed the Buk system as early as Monday 14 July. In the intercepted negotiations, the separatists repeatedly mention the “Buk” systems that they have and which they will redeploy.
The materials posted on social networks on Thursday show the Buk system driving through the separatist-controlled cities of Torez and Snezhnoye, located near the place of death and being the intended launch site of the ground-to-air missile. From this place, the Buk was able to knock down the MH17, as it has sufficient range and height.
Ukraine is also armed with the Buk system, but we are confident that none of the Ukrainian air defense systems were in the area of the crash. Also, the Ukrainian forces did not launch any ground-to-air missiles during the conflict, despite the fact that they often complained about the violation of their airspace by Russian military aircraft.
Soon after the collapse, the separatists - including the self-proclaimed “Minister of Defense” of the Donetsk People's Republic, Igor Strelkov - said in social networks that they had shot down a military transport plane.
In the intercepted conversation, which was widely laid out on the Internet, the well-known separatist leader reports to the interlocutor that the separatist detachment shot down this plane. After it became obvious that the plane turned out to be a civilian airliner, the separatists removed posts on social networks, where they boasted that they had shot down the plane and that they had a system of ground-to-air Buk missiles.
The audio data provided to the press by the Ukrainian security service was evaluated by analysts of the intelligence community, who confirmed, comparing the audio recording posted on the Internet by Ukraine, with recordings of conversations of well-known separatists that these were genuine conversations between well-known separatist leaders. The video posted on social networks yesterday shows how the “Beech” is transported through the Krasnodon area back to Russia. The video shows that there is no at least one rocket in the system, which may indicate that a launch was made.
Events on the ground in the crash area clearly demonstrate that the separatists have full control over the area. ”
The new British Secretary of Defense, Michael Fallon, in an interview with Mail on Sunday, called Russia "a sponsor of terrorism," adding that the Russians should "get out of eastern Ukraine, leaving Ukraine to Ukrainians." On the same day, in the evening, it became known that the leaders of Germany, France and Great Britain declared their readiness to impose additional sanctions on Russia, unless Putin takes urgent measures to facilitate an international investigation into the causes of the incident.
Malaysian Prime Minister Najib Razak said that the Malaysian authorities consider it premature to make accusations before receiving irrefutable evidence about the causes of the disaster: “Now there are a lot of questions that require clear answers. Among them was whether the aircraft was shot down by a rocket, who did it, who supplied weapons, was it a mistake or a planned action in advance, ”said Najib Razak. According to him, Malaysia "will not point to anyone until it receives irrefutable evidence of what happened."
The United States refuses to disclose its intelligence data about the death of a Malaysian aircraft, they don’t know exactly who pressed the rocket launch button, but they are certain that Russia, whose information about the location of the Ukrainian troops is allegedly incorrect, is responsible, said State Department spokeswoman Mari Harf.
In an interview with the French newspaper Midi Libre, NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen described the July 17 tragedy as a war crime. “We have numerous data that indicate that the separatists supported by the Russians are guilty,” he argued. Fogh Rasmussen declined to comment, what kind of information pointing to the guilt of one or another party is in NATO. The headquarters also declined to clarify on this.
Australian Prime Minister Tony Abbott said that during the upcoming G20 summit, to be held in Brisbane in November, Russian President Vladimir Putin will have to answer difficult questions about the death of the Malaysian flight MH17. “I’m attacking (shirtfront) Mr. Putin, you can be sure,” said the Australian prime minister and added that he would tell Putin that the Australians who died in the plane crash were killed by the “insurgents who used the equipment supplied by Russia”.
Analysis of the speeches of officials and the media suggests that literally in the first hours after the death of Boeing 777 in the media of a number of Western countries (primarily the United States and Great Britain) a large amount (over 100) of materials appeared in which the blame for the death of the aircraft was on the Russian Federation . Moreover, the authors of the articles and officials did not cite a single fact or evidence indicating the involvement of the Russian side in the death of Boeing 777. All materials cited either links to social networks, either to the statements of the Ukrainian side, or to closed sources. A characteristic feature of the statements and quoted materials is that they were made BEFORE the publication of the results of any commission that included interested parties (Ukraine, in whose airspace the catastrophe occurred; Malaysia, as the owner of the aircraft; USA, as the aircraft manufacturer) and according to the established rules, in this case an interstate commission of inquiry is created. Representatives of such a commission arrived in the Donetsk region only 21.07.2014 and were forced to leave the 08.08.2014 region due to the intensification of hostilities.
According to experts of the analytical group, the speeches of the leaders of European states and the United States, which followed immediately after the death of Boeing 777, as well as in the first days after it, were not accompanied by any evidence. This testifies to the absence of this evidence in them then and now. These speeches, in fact, were extremely tendentious accusations, leading us away, and aiming to directly or indirectly accuse the leadership of the Russian Federation of involvement in the death of the aircraft.
The American side has repeatedly stated about the irrefutable evidence at its disposal about the guilt of the Russian side and the NRT in the death of Boeing 777, but none of the evidence was not only not presented, but not voiced.
This suggests that the party accusing Russia has been bluffing and continues to bluff now. Delaying the publication of the results of the crash investigation does not occur because the investigation is too complicated, but because the conclusions from it are too disadvantageous. Most likely, in the bodies of the dead there are no damaging elements from the Buk-M1 air defense system. If they are not there, then there is no fundamental possibility to hang the blame on the militias.
5.7. The course of the investigation into the causes of the crash of the Malaysian Boeing 777
17.07.2014 Prime Minister of Ukraine Arseniy Yatsenyuk ordered an urgently set up government commission to ascertain the circumstances of the Malaysian Airlines Boeing 777 crash in the Donetsk region, following the course of Amsterdam (Netherlands) - Kuala Lumpur (Malaysia). On the same day, President of Ukraine Petro Poroshenko initiated the creation of a State Commission with the involvement of ICAO specialists and other international structures to investigate the tragedy with the Malaysian Airlines Boeing 777 aircraft in the Donetsk region.
19.07.2014 came to Ukraine from Malaysian investigative agencies to participate in the work of an international commission. On the same day, a group of international experts arrived to investigate the disaster of the Malaysian Boeing 777 (the commission from 31 people included most of the representatives of the Netherlands - 23 man, two from Germany and the USA, one from the UK, and three representatives of the Australian embassy). The commission began work only on 21.07.2014, when by the middle of the day four Dutch experts managed to get to the crash site. After that, intensive shelling of the territory where the wreckage of the Boeing 777 was located began and representatives of the commission stopped their work on the ground. After several unsuccessful attempts, the commission consisting of an international expert 101, still managed 31.07.2014 to reach the place of the death of the Malaysian Boeing. But they could not work for a long time - the fighting continued, the experts returned to Donetsk on the same day. The commission’s work at the site of the death cannot be described as full-fledged, since its representatives at the date of publication of the preliminary report (09.09.2014) could not collect all the fragments of the aircraft for the purpose of subsequent detailed analysis.
22.07.2014 The authorities of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People's Republic (DPR) handed over two “black boxes” from the crashed Boeing 777 in Ukraine to experts from Malaysia, subject to ICAO international experts providing access to them.
22.07.2014 President of Ukraine Petro Poroshenko during a visit to the Malaysian Embassy in Kiev ordered Ukrainian security officials to cease hostilities and operations within 40 km from the place of the Malaysian airliner crash. “I gave an order: immediately within the 40 radius of kilometers from the scene of the tragedy, the Ukrainian military should not conduct operations and should not open fire,” Poroshenko told reporters, Interfax-Ukraine reported.
22.07.2014 in the Donetsk region aircraft of the Ukrainian Air Force launched a rocket attack near the city of Shakhtersk, this is only 30 kilometers from the place where Malaysian Boeing 777 was killed. Thus, the military violated the order of Petro Poroshenko - to stop the fighting in the area, so as not to interfere with the investigation. As the correspondent of RIA reported News, in addition to the air strike at Shakhtersk, the military conducted shelling from “Grad” installations: the sounds of volleys and explosions were heard near the village of Grabovo, in the vicinity of which there are fragments of the liner.
23.07.2014 Representatives of Malaysia handed over flight recorders of a Malaysian Boeing 777 airliner to investigators from the Netherlands Safety Council, which runs an international crash investigation. On the same day, the recorders were handed over to the British experts of the Aviation Incident Investigation Department, and the Farnborough laboratories (Great Britain) began to decipher them.
24.07.2014 The UN Security Council unanimously adopted a resolution on the death of Boeing in eastern Ukraine. The document calls for the immediate cessation of hostilities in the area of the crash and to conduct an impartial international investigation. Russia's permanent representative Vitaly Churkin warned against unsubstantiated accusations and asked to take into account that Kiev would try to use the situation with the death of Boeing to build up the military operation.
Ukraine is not going to stop fighting in the east of the country while investigating the circumstances of the death of a Malaysian airliner. About this 24.07.2014 said the Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk. Which directly indicates the reluctance of the Ukrainian side to maximally promote the disclosure of circumstances and clarify the reasons for the death of Boeing 777.
According to Yatsenyuk, the place of death of the aircraft is quite far from the place where the battles are held. “For me personally, it is better to free Ukraine from those who encroach on the territorial integrity of the country. There are Ukrainians who are in danger. These pro-Russian rebels are killing them. I can not wait. Responsibility for the fate of these people lies with the government and the president, ”conveyed the words of the prime minister to Interfax.
Also, the prime minister recalled that in a zone with a radius of 40 kilometers around the place where the Malaysian passenger airliner fell, Poroshenko ordered the fire to stop.
“The previously announced cease-fire provides for the creation of humanitarian corridors for access to the accident site. But it depends on the rebels whether they will allow them to gather evidence, ”Yatsenyuk said.
Thus, despite the order of the President to cease hostilities around the place of the plane’s death, the Ukrainian military repeatedly violated this order. Experts from Malaysia could not get to the site of the tragedy because of the shelling of the highway leading to the village of Grabovo, very close to the place where the plane fell. On the day when the experts examined the wreckage of the liner, July 22, the shooting was carried out just 19 kilometers from Hrabovo.
02.08.2014 According to RIA Novosti, a group of observers from the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), who arrived at the scene of the death of the Malaysian Boeing 777 in eastern Ukraine, was forced to leave the crash site due to the shelling that had begun.
08.08.2014 members of the international commission to investigate the Boeing 777 disaster in the Donetsk region returned to Holland from Ukraine, having not worked there for a total of a week. At the same time, it was originally planned that it would take at least a month to thoroughly examine the place of death of the Boeing 777. The experts failed to collect the wreckage of the aircraft, and without this, scientific conclusions about the causes of the disaster are impossible. It was reported that the “first stage” was completed, the meaning of which, in fact, came down to the fact that the commission could not work. The timing of the second stage was not reported.
11.08.2014 The Dutch public organization De Ommeker (“Turning”) delivered an open letter to Russian President Vladimir Putin. It condemns the way of resolving the conflict in Ukraine chosen by Washington and Brussels. And also apologies are made on behalf of the majority of citizens of the Netherlands for the actions of their government and the media, for the “perverted facts concerning the death of Boeing-777 near Donetsk.”
“Terrible accusations are being made against Russia, without any evidence, without conducting an investigation, without presenting wreckage of weapons, which allegedly shot down MH17,” the authors of the letter note. “We only have to be powerless observers and witnesses that Western countries, led by the United States, accuse Russia of crimes that they commit themselves on an incomparable scale,” the letter said on the official website of De Ommeker.
14.09.2014 OSCE observers came under artillery shelling at the site of the death of the Malaysian Boeing 777. The shell hit the car, the OSCE staff were able to leave the scene on the second vehicle, there were no injuries among them.
11.10.2014 "For Western experts, it is still unsafe to conduct an investigation at the scene of the death," Reuters Prime Minister Mark Rutte quotes Reuters. “I am furious, because we know that a truce has been declared and there should be a buffer zone, but in fact there is neither one nor the other.”
Armed formations of Ukraine repeatedly shelled the area where the debris of the Boeing 777 fell. Obviously, such attacks are pursuing a twofold goal. On the one hand, to make it as difficult as possible to identify the ammunition that hit the aircraft in the air, and on the other hand, to prevent the normal work of experts.
In view of the fact that battles are taking place at the site of the death of the Boeing 777, experts are not able to conduct a thorough inspection of the scene of the incident and collect fragments.
Throughout the time that has passed since the death of Boeing 777, there is a clear tendency to hinder the work of the commission and evade truthful and complete coverage of the situation in the media. At the same time, it becomes clear that silencing of such facts as the publication of negotiations between the Ukrainian dispatchers and the Boeing crew before and during the disaster, as well as an obstacle to identifying witnesses and direct contact with them comes from the security services and security forces of the Ukrainian side (SBU, MO, Headquarters ATO). There is a policy of isolating key witnesses who can shed light on the circumstances of the death of the Boeing 777 and, thereby, assist the international commission in conducting a transparent investigation.
According to experts of the analytical group, the shelling of the territory on which the wreckage of the Boeing 777 is located significantly complicates their collection for the purpose of subsequent detailed analysis, which is necessary to establish the causes, circumstances and perpetrators of the plane’s death.
One of the reasons for the intensive shelling of the territory, which impedes the normal work of experts at the scene of the death of the aircraft, may be an attempt to conceal all the circumstances of the case. For example, the one who conducted artillery shelling of the area on which parts of Boeing are located - to destroy the wreckage of the plane and the bodies of passengers with artillery shells so that they cannot be examined. Such a task could be solved by artillery installations, if the expansion of the parts of the aircraft was not as great as in this particular case. The second purpose of the work of artillery in the place of the fall of the wreckage may be the creation of an official reason not to survey the area properly.
It is obvious that the empty fields, on which the wreckage of the aircraft fell, are not of interest as a military target, and the artillerymen shoot at the coordinates indicated by their higher headquarters.
Hence the conclusion that the higher headquarters of the ATO, instructed the artillerymen to handle the site of the fall of the aircraft fragments in order to prevent the normal course of the investigation, since the true results of the investigation are not beneficial to the headquarters and the leadership of the ATO.
Responsibility for this lies with the party carrying out the fire impact at the crash site.
5.8. Comparison of the investigation of the causes of the crash of the Malaysian Boeing 777 with the course and results of the investigation into the circumstances of the death of the TU-154 that occurred in the sky of Ukraine 04.10.2001
In this situation, it seems appropriate to compare the investigation of the death of the Boeing 777 with another catastrophe that occurred in the sky of Ukraine 04.10.2001, namely the death of the Tu-154 of Siberia Airlines, which operated the SBI1812 flight on the route Tel-Aviv - Novosibirsk. Let us compare some of the circumstances revealed during the investigation of these tragedies and their consequences:
|The crash of the Boeing 777 17.07.2014/XNUMX/XNUMX||The death of the Tu-154M 04.10.2001|
|Initial versions||18 July, US President Barack Obama said: "There is evidence indicating that the plane was shot down by a ground-to-air missile fired from inside Ukraine, which is controlled by separatists supported by Russia."||Almost immediately it was announced that the main version of the disaster was a terrorist act.|
At the same time, another version appeared, according to which the explosion on board the aircraft occurred for technical reasons.
A few hours later, the media reported on a new version of what happened: the plane was shot down by a ground-to-air missile.
|Who conducted the investigation||- International Commission of Investigation of the Boeing 777 crash;|
- OSCE representatives;
- State Commission of Ukraine to investigate the circumstances and causes of the plane crash, head Vladimir Groisman.
|- Commission to investigate the causes of the disaster, created by the President of the Russian Federation (chaired by Vladimir Rushailo);|
- The Commission established at the Interstate Aviation Committee (IAC) and the Ministry of Transport of the Russian Federation;
- Ukrainian interdepartmental commission headed by the First Deputy Prime Minister of Ukraine Oleg Dubina.
|Primary Wreck Analysis||When inspecting the place of death of Boeing in Ukraine, the most important research was not carried out - laying out the wreckage of the aircraft. “They [the experts] were there, but they didn’t show the wreckage, which must be done ... [They] did not try to find the remains of the damaging elements,” said Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov.||The first inspection of the wreckage of the liner confirmed that the Tu-154 had exploded due to an external injury. In addition, at the crash site were found fragments that are not related to the design of the aircraft. Experts have found that the size and shape of the numerous holes in the fuselage are consistent with the shrapnel of the high-explosive fragmentation warhead of the C-200 rocket.|
|The results of the investigation of the causes of death of the aircraft||The preliminary report submitted by the international commission does not contain detailed information about the circumstances of the crash. The most important examinations and studies were not carried out in a timely manner (the collection and layout of aircraft wreckage, the search for damaging elements, and the autopsy examinations). Without these data it is impossible to draw any conclusions about the causes of the incident.||According to the findings of the Interstate Aviation Committee (IAC), which completed the investigation in 2004, the Tu-154 was shot down by the “5B14Sh combat unit of the 5B28 missile of the C-200B anti-aircraft complex, which approached the plane from above, behind and to the left.” "An explosive device struck at 9.45 (UTC) at an altitude of 15 meters above the plane body."|
|Commission withdrawal||“The plane broke up into parts in the air, probably as a result of structural damage caused by the external influence of numerous high-energy facilities” - a preliminary report published by the Netherlands Safety Council. “The reason for the fall of the aircraft was the hit of an anti-aircraft missile that was launched by armed units of the Donetsk People’s Republic” - the State Commission of Ukraine to investigate the circumstances and causes of the crash||The Interstate Aviation Committee came to an unequivocal conclusion: the plane was shot down by a rocket. |
During the investigation, which was jointly conducted by the Russian and Ukrainian commissions, an investigative experiment was conducted using a similar airliner moving along the same air corridor. As a result, as Secretary of the Security Council of the Russian Federation Vladimir Rushaylo stated, no data refuting the preliminary conclusion was received. Ukraine has recognized the version of the rocket "no alternative".
|Litigation||English lawyers 28.07.2014 invited the families of the deceased passengers and crew members to join the lawsuit against Putin, senior officials of the Russian Defense Ministry and people from the close circle of the Russian President. |
The authorities of the Netherlands are not considering the option of the Hague court on the accident of the passenger Boeing 777 in the Donetsk region.
Netherlands Security Minister Ivo Opstelten explained that the victims of the collapse of the liner were citizens of different countries, which means that the investigation can be carried out by the specialized services of several states. He also noted that the International Criminal Court takes up the case only under the conditions if the countries interested in the investigation are unwilling or unable to conduct an independent investigation.
11.10.2014 relatives of deceased citizens of the Netherlands said they would sue the Dutch authorities for improperly investigating the tragedy.
Malaysian Defense Minister Datuk Seri Hismamuddin Hussein said on August 17.08.2014, 777 that those responsible for the Boeing XNUMX crash in Ukraine will be brought to justice. According to him, it does not matter where the trial is held - in Malaysia, Ukraine or in the International Court of Justice.
Malaysian Prime Minister Najib Razak asked the Attorney General to examine the issue of initiating a criminal case against those responsible for the death of Boeing 777. At the same time, the prime minister stressed: “We don’t point a finger at anyone at this stage until evidence is received.” Razak also called on the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) to adopt a resolution condemning a possible attack on Boeing, and said that Ukraine should take responsibility for conducting an international investigation.
|Initially, the Prosecutor General’s Office of Russia opened a criminal case under the article “Terrorism” on the fact of the crash of a Tu-154 passenger plane over the Black Sea. After publishing the findings of the 16.10.2001 commission, the case was transferred to the Prosecutor General’s Office of Ukraine for production, the Russian side officially closed the case. The Kyiv Economic Court of Appeal ruled that S7 Airlines would not receive compensation from the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense for the Tu-2001 aircraft shot down in 154. Thus, the court confirmed the ruling of the previous instance, which refused to admit the guilt of the military. |
The plaintiff's lawyers announced their intention to appeal the decision to the court of appeal, and then, if necessary, to litigate at the international level.
28 May 2012 Kiev Economic Court of Appeal rejected the complaint of the Russian airline Siberia (S7 Airlines) against the decision of the court of first instance, which did not admit the guilt of the Ukrainian military in the crash of the Russian Tu-154 in 2001 year. 11 December 2012, the Supreme Economic Court of Ukraine upheld the decision. Representatives of the airline announced their intention to appeal to the European Court of Human Rights, but after 21 on April 2013 of the Supreme Court refused to transfer the case to the Supreme Court of Ukraine, the airline, having passed all possible instances in Ukraine, did not use the opportunity to apply to the ECHR. Thus, the financial claims of Siberia were also not satisfied.
|Compensatory payments||Boeing 777 was insured for 97,3 million dollars, including in case of death as a result of hostilities. |
Relatives of German citizens who died as a result of the Malaysian Boeing 777 catastrophe in the Donetsk region, said they are going to sue the government of Ukraine and the country's president, Petro Poroshenko. About this 21.09.2014 said the lawyers of the plaintiffs Elmar Gimulla (Elmar Giemulla).
According to the lawyer, the lawsuit against Ukraine and President Poroshenko will be filed with the European Court of Human Rights within two weeks. The amount of compensation that Gimulla is counting on is at least one million euros for each victim of the plane crash.
Earlier, Malaysia Airlines paid the relatives of the victims by 5 thousands of euros. Currently, the issue of paying thousands of euros more on 50 is being considered.
|20.11.2003 Ukraine and Israel signed an agreement on the payment of compensation to relatives of victims of the Tu-154 plane crash over the Black Sea. At the same time, Kiev insisted on its position: Ukraine does not admit its guilt, and the relatives of the passengers, in exchange for compensation (for 200 thousands of dollars for each victim), refuse to take legal action. |
Pursuant to the Claims Settlement Agreement signed between Russia and Ukraine on December 26, 2003, the Ukrainian government transferred $ 7 to pay the relatives of the Russian passengers who died. Payment of compensation was carried out ex gratiai.e. without recognition of legal liability.
|Position of the President of Ukraine||“Today, terrorists killed almost 300 people with one shot. They shot down a peaceful passenger aircraft of the airline "Malaysian Airlines", which at an altitude of ten thousand one hundred meters flew along the route Amsterdam - Kuala Lumpur. |
I want to inform you that one of the leaders of the militants in a conversation with his foreign Russian curator, Colonel of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, Vasily Geranin, boasted a downed airliner.
Today, the whole world saw the true face of the aggressor, because the destruction of a peaceful aircraft is an act of international terrorism directed against the whole world, ”said President of Ukraine Petro Poroshenko to 17.07.2014
|“Look what is happening around the world, in Europe? We are not the first and not the last, it is not necessary to make a tragedy out of this. Errors are everywhere, and not only on this scale, but on a much larger, planetary scale. If we do not lower ourselves below the civilized level, everything will be fine. And if we pour a bucket of dirt on ourselves, then you are welcome, "said the President of Ukraine Leonid Kuchma on 10.10.2001|
Interestingly, what is the position of the United States in similar situations. 3 July 1988 Iran Air Airlines Airbus A300B2-203 operated a commercial IR655 passenger flight between Tehran (Iran) and Dubai (UAE) with a stopover in Bandar Abbas (Iran). Despite the fact that the flight took place within the international air corridor 35-kilometer-wide, the aircraft was shot down over the Persian Gulf by a rocket fired from the Vincennes missile cruiser of the US Navy, which was located in the territorial waters of Iran. The rocket hit right on the plane and tore it in two. Flight 655 fell into the water, all 290 people on board died. The US government stated that the Iranian aircraft was mistakenly identified as the F-14 fighter of the Iranian Air Force.
US President Ronald Reagan called the incident “proper defensive actions”, and only after a trial in the International Court of Justice did the US authorities agree to pay compensation to the families of the victims. After 8 years and 26 litigation in February 1996, the United States agreed to pay Iran compensation in the amount of 61,8 million US dollars for 248 dead, at the rate of 300 thousand dollars for each able-bodied victim and 150 thousand for each dependent. To compensate the cost of the aircraft (about 30 million dollars), the United States refused. At the same time, this compensation was unequivocally considered by the USA as a unilateral voluntary act, since the US government did not take responsibility for the events that occurred. The US Vice President for 1988, George H. Bush, in particular, stated: "I will never apologize for the United States of America, despite all the facts."
According to experts of the analytical group, the delay in investigating the causes of the disaster is due to the actions of the Ukrainian side and unconditional assistance to the United States in this matter.
The practice of investigating air crashes is as follows: on the day of the crash, a state commission should be established on the territory of the state where the accident occurred, and on the same day it is necessary to proceed to investigate the causes.
The Kiev authorities did not cease hostilities in the area of the catastrophe and, thus, hindered the work of international experts. In the first weeks after the death, the most important examinations and investigations (collection and laying out of aircraft fragments, search for damaging elements, and pathologic examinations) necessary in such cases were not carried out.
The Kiev authorities did this precisely because an objective investigation is unprofitable for them.
5.9. Preliminary results of the investigation of the Security Council of the Netherlands
09.09.2014 Netherlands side published a preliminary report on the causes of the collapse of the Malaysian Boeing 777 in Ukraine. According to the report, “the plane broke up into parts in the air, probably as a result of structural damage caused by the external influence of numerous high-energy objects”. The Dutch experts promise to present the final conclusions to the world in the summer of 2015.
In fact, the investigation does not need a year to establish the causes of the death of the aircraft. It is enough to show the experts these “high-energy objects”, extracted from the plane body and passengers' bodies, and they will tell you in a minute what kind of weapon and how exactly the Malaysian Boeing 777 was shot down. Ideally, if the commission puts out everything that it has for universal access to the Internet, then the objective conclusions of the experts will not keep themselves waiting.
The journal "Expert" on the same day published a summary of the report: "As follows from the report, the specialists did not find any signs of technical problems with the aircraft. Erroneous actions of the crew is also not fixed. Full listening to the communication between crew members in the cockpit, recorded on the onboard voice recorders, did not reveal any signs of technical malfunctions or an emergency situation on board. “There was not a single warning signal that could be heard in the cockpit that could indicate technical problems,” the expert committee found. The flight data recorder did not register any warnings from the aircraft systems, and the parameters of the aircraft engines corresponded to normal operation during the flight. Flight recorders have not registered any deviations of the flight from the norm. But seconds before the crash, the plane changed the course without permission. ” On the cockpit found numerous holes. “Among the holes there are both large“ ragged ”holes, and small dotted holes, similar to traces of bullets. The Dutch do not draw any conclusions from this. Therefore, the question remains where exactly the plane was attacked. ”
Malaysian Prime Minister Najib Razak welcomed the publication of the preliminary report, stressing that the document confirms: the ship was technically sound and the crew acted according to the rules.
In response to the publication of the Dutch document, the Federal Agency for Air Transport of Russia sent a list of 777 actions to the commission to investigate the crash of the Malaysian Boeing 24 aircraft that should be carried out first. The list was submitted by the deputy head of the agency, Oleg Storchev (see Appendix 1). It contains suggestions for analyzing the air and radar situation, preparing the voyage and aircraft, as well as research of flight recorders.
11.10.2014 relatives of the deceased citizens of the Netherlands stated that they would sue the authorities of the Netherlands for improper investigation of the tragedy. “They are dishonest, because the investigation is progressing very slowly, and the experts did not even visit the crash site, although it was possible,” said lawyer Bob van der Goen, representing the interests of the relatives of the victims.
Although in the preliminary report on the death of Boeing 777, neither V. Putin nor the formation of the self-proclaimed DNR are found guilty, the unfounded accusations against them have already been made and taken for granted.
According to experts of the analytical group, the report is superficial and does not allow to draw specific conclusions regarding the circumstances and causes of the death of Boeing 777. Although in order to make a complete and complete report, the experts had both the time and the necessary materials.
The information given in the report indicates only that the airliner was attacked from the outside and collapsed in the air due to “hitting a lot of high-energy objects”.
The preliminary report deliberately left open a lot of questions in order to prevent suspicion of Russia and the DPR from being removed.
The full report will not be ready until the summer of 2015, so the sown doubts and conjectures will sprout in the minds of the general public for at least one more year, and during this time the geopolitical situation may change dramatically and the results of the investigation will lose their relevance, black PR in relation to DNR and Russia by this time will play its role, the economic and moral damage will be done in large quantities.
5.10. Conclusions from other experts
5.10.1 Verify RCI Version
7 in August Malaysian newspaper New Straits Times highlighted the article by Associated press and Newsweek reporter Robert Perry “Flight MH17 Shoot-Down Scenario Shifts”, published on 3 in August on the independent resource GlobalResearch. Perry questions the version with the “Buk” and, in particular, reports that an independent study suggests that the cause of the death of the airliner is shelling from a fighter.
This is a study of Lufthansa pilot Peter Haizenko, who, pointing to bullet inlets centered around the cockpit, writes: “These are small holes, round and clean, showing entry points, most likely, 30 mm caliber projectile.” Khayzenko concluded that Boeing was damaged both from the right and from the left side, this excludes the version that the airliner was fired from the ground. “No one before Khayzenko noticed that the shells had torn the skin from both sides. This means that a ground-to-air missile strike is ruled out, according to the New Straits Times. The words of Michael Botsyurkiv (Michael Bociurkiw), an OSCE staff member who was at the crash site, confirm the same version: “There were several parts of the fuselage that looked like they came under very, very strong machine-gun fire.” The reliability of this version was also confirmed in the film Arkady Mamontov “Flight MH17. Boeing Interrupted Flight, which was shown on 5 and 11 in October on 2014 on Russia Channel.
5.10.2. Version of the Bundestag
On September 17, the German Bundestag published a memorandum on its website stating that the MN17 flight was shot down not by the Buk missile, but by the C-125 anti-aircraft missile system (according to the NATO classification - SA-3). This is an old Soviet complex, which in Russia has long been decommissioned and replaced with C-300. True, he is still in the armies of the former Soviet Union, including Ukraine.
The newspaper Moskovsky Komsomolets writes: “This 8-page document signed by the State Secretary (Deputy Minister) of Foreign Affairs Markus Ederer the German Foreign Ministry sent to the Bundestag more September 5, although it was published somewhat later. There were no loud press statements about this. Apparently, therefore, the German political analyst Kret Meier believes, so as not to draw undue attention to the document. In fact, this memorandum was the forced response of the German foreign ministry to the request of the “left party” - the leading opposition force in the country.
The government reported that "the federal government does not have confirmed information that MH17 was hit by an anti-aircraft missile," although, as we know, the West unanimously asserted from the very beginning that the plane destroyed the Buk of the "pro-Russian separatists." The document says that on July 17, in the airspace of Poland and Romania, there were two NATO reconnaissance aircraft AWACS, which tracked everything that happened in Ukraine, including the operation of air defense systems, including their radars. It follows from the document that “both AWACS aircraft recorded signals from the air defense system, identified as SA-3 ground-to-air SAM, as well as a signal from another radar device that could not be identified.”
What is SA-3, is not explained (hardly by accident). However, experts know that SA-3, according to the NATO classification, is exactly C-125, and not “Buk,” which all the accusations of Russia are based on. ”
September 19 The Bundestag clarified that AWACS radars actually recorded movement that is automatically classified as a C-125 rocket flight. This does not mean at all that the signal came precisely from a rocket of this type. And, all the more, that it was she who caused the explosion of the MH17 flight in the air. ”
According to the analytical group, all the opinions of experts, other than the official position of Washington, do not receive a wide resonance in the media.
The dominant position is any point of view, followed by a conclusion about the involvement of the Russian Federation and the DPR in the death of Boeing 777.
6. Simulation of the situation of the death of Boeing 777
6.1. 1 model. The death of the Boeing 777 occurred as a result of a random attack by a single plane
6.1.1. Situation Description by 1 Model
A single combat aircraft of the side with the appropriate weapons, having on board a crew capable of carrying out combat use of its existing military equipment, 17.07.2014 launched an attack on the Boeing 777.
6.1.2. Arguments confirming the authenticity of the situation on the 1 Model
The technical possibility of the destruction of air targets such as Boeing 777 combat aircraft (Su-25 or MiG-29 or other similar aircraft) in the "free hunting".
6.1.3. Arguments refuting the possibility of the situation on the 1 Model
The complexity of the independent search and guidance of weapons on a single plane in the absence of its exact coordinates.
The need for personal motivation. If we assume that the pilot of the aircraft specifically chose the Malaysian Boeing 777, then he should have a strong personal motivation for the use of weapons on a civilian aircraft, which is unlikely. A prerequisite for the profession of a combat aircraft pilot is absolute mental health, which makes the assumption of his mental disorder untenable.
6.2. 2 model. The death of the Boeing 777 occurred as a result of the adoption of erroneous commands from the officials who make decisions on the conduct of hostilities and the failure to take measures to prevent the use of weapons by combat aircraft
6.2.1. Situation Description by 2 Model
The pilot of a combat aircraft, during the training of combat missions, either misunderstood the command from the ground, or, instead of simulating the use of weapons, inadvertently used weapons on a civilian aircraft.
6.2.2. Arguments confirming the authenticity of the situation on the 2 Model
The argument in favor of this version can serve as numerous facts testifying to the low level of combat training of servicemen of the armed forces of the state in whose airspace the death of the Boeing 777 occurred. It is enough to analyze the death of 4 on October 2001 of the TU-154 airline of Siberia Airlines, which operated the SBI1812 flight on the Tel-Aviv-Novosibirsk route, when a civil airliner was destroyed as a result of gross errors in the combat crew of the S-200 air defense missile system and low training and non-ordination of the military leadership of the armed forces Of Ukraine during the exercises with live firing.
Then, the military-political leadership of Ukraine not only did not take responsibility for the death of 66 passengers and 12 crew members, but made it clear that it would not bear any legal or moral responsibility.
President of Ukraine L. D. Kuchma 10 October 2001 responded to the following questions to journalists about the causes of the October 4 2001 plane crash of the year Tu-154:
“Look, what is happening around in the world, in Europe? We are not the first and not the last, do not make a tragedy out of it. Mistakes are everywhere, and not only on such a scale, but on a much larger, planetary scale. If we do not lower ourselves below the civilized level, everything will be fine. And if we pour a bucket of dirt on ourselves, you are welcome. ”
6.2.3. Arguments refuting the possibility of the situation on the 2 Model
The presence of stuffing information in the media and social network about the presence of the militia of the DNR air defense missile system of the type "Buk-М1" and combat aircraft just before the death of Boeing 777. Ukrainian intelligence 10 July recorded the appearance of the militia of an unknown aircraft. This was reported in the headquarters of the "anti-terrorist" operation. Half an hour before the crash of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine "threw" in the media information about the presence of air defense militias.
It is necessary to understand that in the sphere of officials who make decisions about the attack on Boeing 777, there are:
• a combat aircraft pilot who used the weapons that caused the death of a Boeing 777;
• ground personnel performing aerodrome maintenance of a combat aircraft;
• navigator guidance, who carried out the targeting and guidance of combat aircraft;
• radar calculations that conduct airspace reconnaissance and provide information about the air situation in the area of the Boeing 777 death;
• the official who set the pilot to use weapons.
Moreover, all these persons should have the appropriate means of accomplishing the task: a combat aircraft equipped with appropriate weapons, an airfield, airfield technical equipment (fuel and air tankers, electric generators, control and measurement stations, etc.), radar stations, targeting equipment and guidance, means of communication and information transfer.
In accordance with the practice of command and control, the subordinate tasks assigned by the leadership depend on a combination of four conditions:
1. understanding by subordinates of orders received to them;
2. their belief that the leadership acts in accordance with the interests of the state and the Armed Forces;
3. their belief that the combat orders given coincide with their own interests;
4. their physical and mental ability to obey.
The ability to clearly and clearly formulate combat missions is an inherent quality of any commander, as a link in the military command loop, and in this case, the superior commander, who has the appropriate powers, needed to give the pilot a deliberately criminal order.
Information insertions on the eve of the death of Boeing 777 coincided strikingly with the position of the Ukrainian leadership literally in the first minutes after the disaster, when the DPR militiamen were accused of killing the aircraft, and the Russian Federation was blamed for it.
6.3. 3 model. The death of the Boeing 777 is deliberate and is a consequence of the deliberate actions of the military-political leadership
6.3.1. Situation Description by 3 Model
Malaysia Airlines' Boeing 777 aircraft performed an 17.07.2014 flight Amsterdam - Kuala Lumpur along a corridor set by controllers. At the same time, the route of movement of the aircraft was shifted to the north compared with the routes followed by similar flights before and after the death of the Boeing 777.
In 17.17 – 17.20, the Boeing 777 was in the airspace of Ukraine near the city of Donetsk at an altitude of 10100 m.
It is possible that the true goal was not the Malaysian Airlines Boeing 777 aircraft, but another, outwardly similar outlines and colors, which was supposed to appear in the area at that time, but changed the course and time of flight, which the planners did not know about .
An unidentified combat aircraft, which was echelon below on a head-on course in a cloud layer, received target designation according to the air situation received from working radar stations, abruptly gained altitude, suddenly appeared from the clouds in front of a civilian aircraft and fired at the cockpit (cockpit), firing shots from gun armament caliber 30 mm or smaller caliber.
As a result of multiple hits of shells, the cockpit was damaged, its depressurization abrupt, which resulted in the immediate death of the crew from mechanical effects and decompression. The attack was sudden and lasted a fraction of a second, due to the prevailing circumstances, the crew could not give warning signals set in such cases, since the flight proceeded normally, and no one expected the attack.
Since neither the engines, nor the hydraulic system, or other devices important for continuing the flight were put out of action, the autopilot-controlled Boeing 777 (which is the normal situation) continued to perform horizontal flight, possibly gradually losing altitude.
The pilot of an unidentified combat aircraft made a maneuver, Boeing 777 entered the rear hemisphere. After that, an unidentified aircraft lay down on the combat course, the pilot provided target tracking with the onboard equipment of the aircraft, aimed and launched the P – 60 or P – 73 missiles.
As a result of missiles, a depressurization of the cabin arose, the control system of the aircraft was violated, the autopilot turned off, the plane stopped horizontal flight and went into a tailspin. The resulting overload led to mechanical destruction of the aircraft at high altitudes.
6.3.2. Arguments confirming the authenticity of the situation on the 3 Model
The Russian military recorded the work of nine Kupol radars of the Ukrainian battery of the Buk-М1 air defense system on the day of the death of the Malaysian Boeing 777.
The presence of information about the guilt of the Russian side in the death of the Boeing 777 immediately after the catastrophe may indicate that this operation is planned in the information war.
6.3.3. Arguments refuting the possibility of the situation on the 3 Model
The need to involve in the development and implementation of the operation a significant amount of human and material resources.
The contour of the military administration, in this case, includes a significant number of officials:
• Developer of the idea;
• Decision maker (with appropriate authority within the ATO);
• The person engaged in the formulation of the combat mission;
• Person (s) conducting Boeing 777 wiring and aiming at the target of the combat aircraft;
• A person giving a combat order to a combat aircraft pilot for the destruction of an air target;
• Pilot combat aircraft.
If a significant number of people are involved in a sabotage operation in combat, a leak of information is possible that is unacceptable in the development and implementation of covert operations. Of course, each of these persons may sign the corresponding non-disclosure obligations, but, as a rule (which implies the secrecy of conducting such operations), immediately after their completion, those involved in the implementation are subject to isolation from possible leaks. And the more people involved in such a process, the less likely it is to keep it secret.
According to experts of the RSI analytical group, the 3 Model seems to be the most likely (the death of Boeing 777 is deliberate and is a consequence of the deliberate actions of the military-political leadership), but a thorough picture of the death of Boeing 777 can only be clarified by thoroughly investigating and interviewing all those involved. circumstances of the case. An example of the necessary actions and information for study is presented in a letter sent to 25.09.2014 by the Deputy Head of the Federal Air Transport Agency, an authorized representative of the Russian Federation to participate in the investigation into the circumstances and causes of the crash of Malaysia Airlines Boeing-777 of Oleg Storchev to the International Commission of Inquiry (Annex 1 present situational analysis).
7. Parties involved in the development of a conflict related to the death of Boeing 777
The death of the Malaysian Boeing 777 led to a significant expansion of the number of states involved in this conflict situation. As the practice of investigation shows, representatives of several countries are delegated to the commission: the country in whose airspace the catastrophe occurred, the country owning the aircraft, the country the manufacturer of the aircraft, and in accordance with the established rules, an interstate commission of inquiry is created.
In this case, the states that were formally not involved in this event turned out to be involved in one way or another in the situation with the death of Boeing 777.
The death of Boeing 777 occurred in the airspace of Ukraine. This country is in fact actively opposing a comprehensive investigation. In an interview with CNN, Vitaliy Naida, director of the counterintelligence department of the Security Service of Ukraine, expressed confidence that “a Russian-trained, well-equipped, well-trained officer ... pressed this button intentionally” to bring down the Malaysian Boeing over Ukraine.
Donetsk People's Republic (militia)
Debris Boeing 777 fell into the territory controlled by the militia DNI. DNR handed "black boxes" to the Malaysian side of 22.07.2014
It was subject to accusations by the top officials of the United States and Great Britain of guilt in the death of a Boeing 777. The death of Boeing 777 was the cause of tougher sanctions against Russia.
Country owner of Boeing 777. Participates in the investigation of the death of the aircraft. On board the Boeing were 45 citizens of Malaysia. 23.07.2014 handed over to the Netherlands side “black boxes” received from the DPR militia.
Noteworthy is the transfer by the Malaysian side of the “black boxes” to the representatives of the Netherlands and their subsequent dispatch to the UK. It seemed that the party-owner of the aircraft should be the most active and active in the investigation. This is the established practice. In this case, it is not.
This circumstance is connected not so much with the high qualification of British specialists, as with the fact that the sovereign state of Malaysia is still under the strongest influence of the United Kingdom. As you know, Malaysia for a long time was a British colony, and is currently part of the British Commonwealth of Nations.
12.09.2014 Malaysian Attorney General Abdul Gani Pail in an interview with the New Straits Times newspaper said that the criminal investigation into the causes of the crash of a passenger liner in eastern Ukraine is "in full swing," it is being conducted simultaneously in several directions. Investigators “re-created the aircraft in a virtual form using photos and videos taken directly from the Boeing 777 crash site.” The Prosecutor General also noted that, despite the ongoing international investigation, Malaysia also intends to independently investigate the causes and find those responsible for the tragedy that took place on July 17. Earlier, Patel pointed out that the Malaysian side "intends to lead the legal process of bringing to justice those responsible for the fall of the liner, since all the evidence and evidence belong to his country."
A country that has lost its subjects as a result of the death of Boeing 27. Participates in the investigation of the death of the aircraft. 25.09.2014 Tony Abbott said that Australia will make all its efforts together with the Netherlands and Malaysia to ensure that in no case will the criminal case of the death of Boeing in the Donetsk region of Ukraine be investigated.
The country from which the airport started its last MH17 Boeing 777 flight. On board was a 192 citizen of the Netherlands. The Netherlands took over the leadership of the investigation of the crash of the Malaysian Airlines passenger liner in the Donetsk region. Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte told 22 July in The Hague that the government of Ukraine handed over to his country all the reins in the investigation.
Country actively accusing the Russian Federation in the death of Boeing 777. “The tragic loss of the Malaysian airline should be a catalyst for changing Russia's position and ending the conflict in Ukraine. Russia is trying to destabilize a sovereign state and violate its territorial integrity, ”David Cameron told 25.07.2014 in the New York Daily News.
“We in Britain urge our European partners to introduce new tough economic sanctions. Of course, some sanctions are not painless for any of us, ”Cameron admitted. - Russia has great business ties with Europe, which is beneficial to all of us. Russian investors make a significant contribution to our economy, and Russian gas is an important source of energy for many, especially those who do not have atomic energy sources. Therefore, causing economic damage to Russia will be to some extent painful for our economies, ”he said and added that“ serious economic sanctions are the only language ”.
The Black Boxes, which crashed Malaysia Airlines Boeing 777 in the Donetsk region, were shipped to 23.07.2014 in the United Kingdom under the supervision of the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO). In the UK, experts in Farnborough took up decoding of flight recorders. This city not far from London is closely associated with aviation and is known as the venue for one of the largest international air shows.
Due to its historical and geopolitical features, the UK has the strongest levers of influence on Malaysia and the Netherlands, which explains the transfer of the Boeing 777 flight recorders to the experts of this country.
Country of origin Boeing 777. They brought charges against the Russian Federation in his death. 26.07.2014 on 11: 53 White House spokesman Josh Ernest said that Russian President Vladimir Putin was responsible for the fall of the Malaysian Boeing 777 in Ukraine.
“We know that the Malaysian airline was shot down by a rocket from the ground. We know that it was released from the territory controlled by the separatists, and at that moment when the Ukrainian air defenses did not work, ”Ernest said.
“We have seen that from Russia, heavy weapons were being transferred to Ukraine, which were later used by the separatists, whom Russia taught to use them. Among these weapons were air defense weapons. And, judging by the reports in social networks, there were SA-11 complexes (Buk air defense missile system according to the US and NATO classification), the official representative of the White House added.
“So now we can conclude that Vladimir Putin and the Russians are guilty of this tragedy,” he concluded.
Further, Ernest quoted the words of Republican Senator Sackby Chambliss: “The Russians themselves shot or shot those whom they trained, this is the same thing. Traces lead directly to Vladimir Putin. ”
Earlier, the White House did not directly accuse Vladimir Putin of the death of the Boeing 777, blaming the death of the airliner on the separatists.
Representatives of the US intelligence 24 July admitted that Washington does not have any information about the direct involvement of the Russian authorities in the tragedy.
According to experts of the RSI analytical group, six states and one self-proclaimed republic are directly or indirectly involved in the case involving the death of the Boeing 777, of which the dominant position (under the auspices of the United States) is the accusation of the Russian Federation. The international community (UN), despite the repeated proposals of Russian diplomacy, has not developed a coordinated position that contributes to an objective investigation and early announcement of its results.
8. Interest of the parties
An analysis of the dynamics of the situation related to the death of Boeing 777 suggests that most of the countries involved in this story are not interested in the crash of an aircraft and the extraction of political and economic preferences from this event. The only country that received certain dividends in the form of loans and borrowings is not Malaysia, but a country in the sky of which the death of Boeing 777 occurred and which bears the lion's share of responsibility for ensuring the safety of the work of an international group of experts. It was from her that the proposals to the international community on organizational measures should have come, including proposals on the possibility of introducing UN forces into the area of the Boeing 777 death.
It seems that the country whose plane crashed was not chosen by chance - the Malaysian plane was the victim of the tragedy, and not the American, German or English, or even the Russian airliner. The aircraft of the state, as far as possible from the crash site, which has no significant weight in solving geopolitical problems, and lacks access to the world's leading media sites, was attacked. In addition, the Malaysian side has already lost a similar aircraft in March of this year under very mysterious circumstances and the results of the investigation did not clarify either the finding of its debris, or even less, the reasons for its disappearance. The criminals who planned the attack on Boeing 777, acted taking into account the geopolitical assessments of the situation and chose a country that does not have significant political weight, is unable to insist and demand a comprehensive and objective investigation, a country that meekly accepts the position of the West against those responsible for the death of the liner.
The death of the Boeing 777 is a tragedy that was necessary for bringing charges against Russia, so easily and painlessly annexed the Crimea and Sevastopol, considered by the West as an unsinkable NATO aircraft carrier on the Black Sea. It’s no secret that plans to deploy NATO troops in Crimea were a reality, and the lease agreement for Russia of the naval base in Sevastopol could have been declared by the Ukrainian side criminal and insignificant, moreover, concluded by the previous “corrupt” Yanukovych administration. “Our decision on the Crimea, in part, was partly connected with this. Of course, first of all, and mainly, it is the support of the Crimean people, but also considerations of an order such that, if we don’t do anything, then, for some time, being guided by the same principles, they will drag Ukraine into NATO and say: is concerned. And NATO ships will end up in the city of naval glory, Sevastopol, ”said Russian President Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin on April 17, during a direct press conference.
The planned actions that led to the death of Boeing 777 are not just a tragic event of an international scale, but a tragic geopolitical event that had geopolitical consequences and a catalyst of pressure on the Russian side. In March, the United States and the EU began to impose sanctions against Russia in connection with the annexation of the Crimea. The process of imposing sanctions continued systematically, but after the death of Boeing was strengthened:
18 July The European Investment Bank, on the recommendation of the European Council, ceased new funding for projects in Russia;
23 July, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development has frozen decision-making on new projects in Russia;
26 In July, the EU expanded the sanctions list for 15 people and 18 organizations, of which 9 are subjects accused of undermining the territorial integrity, sovereignty and independence of Ukraine; 9 - Crimean companies that changed ownership after unilaterally proclaiming independence of the Autonomous Republic of Crimea;
28 July on the website of the International Arbitration Court in The Hague (Permanent Court of Arbitration, PCA) published the verdict on the Yukos case, which obliges Russia to pay the plaintiffs $ 50 billion. In addition, Russia was obliged to compensate court costs in $ 65 million;
30 In July, the EU imposed sanctions on 8 people, as well as on the Russian National Commercial Bank, the Almaz-Antey Air Defense Concern and Dobrolet Airlines. Also introduced sanctions to the areas of trade and investment against the Crimea and Sevastopol;
31 July, the EU imposed sanctions against Sberbank of Russia, VTB Bank, Gazprombank, Vnesheconombank, Rosselkhozbank. Also imposed an embargo on the import and export of weapons and similar material to Russia; a ban on the export of dual-use goods and technologies for military use in Russia or Russian end-user military. He obliged exporters to obtain prior permission of the competent authorities of the Member States to export certain types of power equipment and technologies to Russia, and also imposed a ban on the supply to Russia of high-tech equipment for oil production in the Arctic, on the deepwater shelf and shale oil;
7 August NATO ceased cooperation with the Russian Federation;
12 September The EU continued the imposition of sanctions. In particular, he included nine Russian defense concerns in the sanctions list: Sirius Concern, Stankoinstrument Concern, Chemcomposite Concern, Kalashnikov Concern, Tula Arms Plant, Engineering Technologies, NPO High-Precision Complexes, and Almaz- Antey "and NGO" Basalt ". I included twenty four people in the sanction list.
Of course, the sanctions hit Russia, but the main goal is to inflict maximum damage on economic relations along the Russia-Europe line by destroying mutually beneficial ties with the Russian Federation.
Analyzing the consequences of the death of Boeing 777, it is necessary to answer the question: which side has benefited in this situation and which has suffered losses.
9.1. As for the parties that have suffered losses, they are the DNR, the Russian Federation and, oddly enough, Malaysia.
In addition to real human losses, the Malaysian side suffered economic damage - Malaysian shares fell 18.07.2014 by 11,1%. Malaysia Airlines has been unprofitable for several years, since the beginning of 2011, losses have exceeded 4,5 billion ringgits (1,4 billion dollars). Over the past 9 months, its market value has decreased by more than 40%.
The company and, accordingly, the country-owner of the company suffered significant reputational losses in terms of the attractiveness of their service to tourists. Statements by the Malaysian side about the available intelligence on the causes of the death of Boeing 777 and the need to conduct an objective investigation do not find the proper response from the world community. Malaysia no one hears.
The self-proclaimed Donetsk Republic also was not a beneficiary from the death of the aircraft. She became the main culprit in the disaster. As a result, in the eyes of the world community, the DPR is now strongly associated with a terrorist formation that does not stop to achieve its separatist goals before the death of not only the legal representatives of the Ukrainian authorities, but also the peaceful citizens of other states. The accusations of the DPR also touched Russia as an "accomplice of terrorists."
9.2.1 Obviously, the death of Boeing 777, as it is not blasphemous to say, brought great benefit to the new authorities in Kiev, who needed international financial and military-technical assistance, political and informational support in order to reverse the adverse military situation in the Donbass and keep political power the top.
Most of the benefits received and continues to receive the Ukrainian "war party", including:
• high-ranking military and representatives of law enforcement agencies involved in the ATO and interested in continuing the fighting because of the desire to cash in on the supply of troops;
• nationalist deputies and candidates who are rushing to Rada, who play on the feelings of a poorly educated electorate, as exemplified by Oleg Lyashko;
• oligarchs, whose prominent representative is the head of the Dnipropetrovsk region, billionaire Igor Kolomoisky - one of the most powerful leaders of the “war party”. The war and the aggravation of tension allows the oligarchs of Ukraine to actively redistribute property belonging to the clan of the “Donetsk group” that is unfriendly to them, to which the former President of Ukraine, Viktor Yanukovych, belonged.
For the long months of bloody confrontation in the east of Ukraine, oligarchic circles, in the person of Igor Kolomoisky and others, have taken strong positions and are striving to strengthen them.
One of the tasks of the “war party” is to stop the advancement of social protests further into Ukraine. The main goal is to make money. Many oligarchs have their own economic interests in the military sphere.
In the Donetsk region, the most industrially developed region of Ukraine, which was a donor of its budget for 20 for years, the assets belonging to Donetsk oligarch Rinat Akhmetov, who was recently called the “master of Donbass” (see the map in Fig. 7), prevail. Who will be able to quickly seize assets in the Donbas and Luhansk region will be the true owner of these regions.
Igor Kolomoisky said that “today the state is simply obliged to confiscate property, factories, shares of separatist supporters. All those who financed and continues to finance terror in the country. ” This is the announcement of the main tasks of Igor Kolomoisky.
As it is known, this is emphasized in the article “As“ Donbass Host ”Rinat Akhmetov conducts business in conditions of war”, published in RBC magazine in October 2014, the Dnipropetrovsk governor and billionaire Igor Kolomoysky published on his Facebook page an appeal “to confiscate property supporters of separatism. "
Kolomoisky proposes to transfer confiscated property to a special joint-stock company, in which shareholders are ATO participants, veterans, and relatives of the victims: “Why should some die for their country and others continue to fatten?” Said the governor of the Dnipropetrovsk region.
According to Forbes, thanks to the financial support of Kolomoisky, the region has created four armed groups of its own: two battalions of the special forces Dnepr-1 and Dnipro-2, as well as two battalions of territorial defense. Pay volunteers from $ 1260 per month. For comparison: the average salary in Ukraine is $ 272 (according to the State Statistics Committee of Ukraine for April 2014), about the same amount is received by an ordinary contract soldier serving in the Armed Forces.
On the fighters Kolomoisky respectfully even their opponents. “I would not call them [Dnipro] a gang. They can be called a private army. They do not hesitate to advertise their affiliation. They are well armed. They are the most organized, the most motivated and the most aggressive ”(from Forbes’s interview with Roman Lyagin, the chairman of the CEC of the Donetsk People’s Republic 27.05.2014). Former DPR Prime Minister Alexander Boroday argued that the republic "is in a state of war with the group and troops of Kolomoisky." It was these troops that played an important psychological role: at the very beginning of the ATO, when the Ukrainian army was falling apart, the Dnipro battalion looked like the only real force opposing the DPR.
In 2014, Kolomoisky played a win-win game: he first started the creation of volunteer battalions, promised rewards for the heads of the separatists, began to pursue them in his area, called V. Putin a "schizophrenic of short stature" and for some couple of months in the eyes of the inhabitants turned into the main defender of Ukraine, who can now afford to speak with accusations against other oligarchs and offer to expropriate their property. For comparison: the oligarch Sergey Taruta, who was appointed simultaneously with the Kolomoisky, who inherited the problematic Donetsk region, did not show himself in any way. He did not assemble his battalion, did not declare war on the separatists, did not appoint an award for the head of the field commander of the DPR Alexander Mozhayev, known by the nickname Babai. As a result, Taruta was dismissed. The longer the ATO lasts, the more the Ukrainians are disappointed in the new President, the more Kolomoisky’s influence grows. The “war parties” need war. The longer it lasts, the more political and material dividends the party leaders receive.
The activities of Igor Kolomoisky on the day of the death of Boeing 777 in her previous days should be the subject of close attention. This was stated by Deputy Speaker of the State Duma, Secretary of the General Council of United Russia Sergey Neverov: “In connection with the death of a Malaysian aircraft, it is worth remembering that a number of Ukrainian airlines belong to oligarch Igor Kolomoisky: Ukraine International Airlines, Dniproavia, Aerosvit , but what is even more interesting, and fully funded activities of the dispatching services of Dnepropetrovsk, responsible for the wiring of the tragic flight, as well as largely the technical support of dispatching services throughout Ukraine "- he said.
In October 2014, an independent Dutch political party appealed to the International Criminal Court in The Hague with the aim of opening a criminal case against Kolomoisky.
9.2.2. Another beneficiary is the North Atlantic Alliance (NATO) for whose leadership, both among the former Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen and Jens Stoltenberg, who replaced him, the death of Boeing 777 was one of the reasons for pursuing the “NATO enlargement to the East” policy. In an interview with the French edition of Midi Libre, Rasmussen called the plane crash that took place on July 17 in eastern Ukraine a human tragedy, which is also a war crime, and said that the alliance has numerous data indicating that the separatists supported by Russia are guilty in it. However, NATO leaders prefer to avoid evidencing the facts confirming their ambitious statements.
9.2.3 The main benefit of the consequences of the death of Boeing 777 was extracted by the administration of Barack Obama, who influenced the position of the heads of European states and the European Union to apply regular sanctions against Russia, the introduction of which had been stalled for several months. On July 26, Barack Obama told CNBC TV: “Sadly, the crash of the Malaysian Airlines plane, which may well have been shot down by non-state actors who received extremely powerful weapons from the Russian government, could result in our European partners will toughen their position. ”
As is known, Russia and the EU countries have suffered from economic sanctions.
The main result of the death of Boeing was a change in attitude towards Russia as an outcast on the world stage and further isolation of the country from the world community. On the other hand, the Ukrainian side secretly demanded protection from such an “aggressive” neighbor, therefore the EU and the US accelerated its integration into the Western space.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov commented on 06.10.2014 on recent statements by US Vice President Joe Biden that the US "forced the European Union against its will and to the detriment of its economic interests to take the brunt of the anti-Russian sanctions." According to Lavrov, the US Vice President thus "confirmed the position that was set out in a telephone conversation with Victoria Nuland in January of this year with US Ambassador to Kiev Jeff Payet when they discussed the role of the European Union in efforts to promote the interests of the West in Ukraine."
The technology that the US successfully uses in such cases is network and contactless wars, ensuring the seizure of territory, establishing control over it without the use of conventional, classical weapons, and, if possible, without any direct military aggression. A similar scenario, the American security services have already played with the South Korean Boeing, shot down by a Soviet fighter in 1983 year. Then it strengthened the isolation of the USSR from the world community and contributed to the disintegration of the Soviet Union as a single state.
According to the experts of the RSI analytical group, the main beneficiary of the death of Boeing 777 is the Anglo-Saxon world: the United States and the United Kingdom.
At the same time, the benefit of the United States has already been obtained, regardless of the outcome of the investigation commission. The benefit lies in the economic pressure on the Russian Federation and on European countries that feel retaliatory Russian economic sanctions. As a result of the weakening of the economic potential of Russia and European countries, the creation of another hotbed of tension in Europe, the United States is increasing its influence on the world community.
10. Forecast of the development of the situation associated with the death of Boeing 777
The death of Boeing 777, of course, raised a lot of questions to the experts. A balanced analysis of the situation can occur only as a result of a long time working on it. In this regard, it was surprising to hear the hasty judgments of Western officials about the causes of the death of Boeing in the first hours after the disaster. 27.09.2014 Sergey Lavrov said in the UN that a thorough and independent investigation into the circumstances of the death of a Malaysian airliner over Ukrainian territory is being delayed despite UN Security Council resolution 2166. Such a drag on the hand of the western side - according to Western rhetoric, Russia tacitly continues to remain the main culprit in this story. Specialists of the international commission have started the preparation of the final report, which will be published within a year from the moment of the disaster. A working version of the final report will be sent to representatives of countries participating in the investigation (Australia, UK, Malaysia, Russia, USA and Ukraine). Within two months, countries will have to give their opinions, which, if necessary, will be included in the final report.
Alexey Zaitsev, representative of Russia's permanent representative office to the UN, speaking at 22.10.2014 at a meeting of the 4 committee of the UN General Assembly, said that the Russian Federation had to state that the investigation into the crash of Boeing 777 in Ukraine on July 17 was stopped. According to him, it "actually stalled."
According to experts of the RSI analytical group, until the end of the work of the international commission and the publication of the final report, which should be called the true culprits of the death of Boeing 777, the geopolitical situation will be characterized on the one hand by increased sectoral sanctions against Russia, forcing her to abandon the rights to Crimea and Sevastopol voluntarily incorporated into Russia, and on the other hand, by providing all possible support (including financial and military) to the Kiev government in order to involve Ukraine in Anglo-Sax orbit nskih geopolitical interests and retracting it into NATO, albeit at the level of the partner, the placing on its territory troops and Western weapons.
11. Final conclusions
11.1. Before the death of Boeing 777, the information about the situation in Ukraine came down from the front pages of the international media. The Ukrainian authorities suffered military and political defeat due to the lack of military successes and the inability to suppress the resistance of the militia of the DPR and the LPR, Western countries were increasingly delayed in making important decisions on the Ukrainian conflict.
Financial and military-technical assistance to Ukraine was delayed, and prospects for obtaining it under difficult conditions began to take shape.
The death of Boeing 777 and the imposition of responsibility for it on the DPR and Russia were a powerful informational reason for a new round of escalation of the conflict and a reason for Ukraine to turn to Western aid.
11.2. The death of Boeing 777 is a planned military-political action. The choice of aircraft did not accidentally fall on Malaysian airlines, on Malaysia - a country located far from the scene of the accident, weak politically and politically unable to defend its interests. A country that has recently ceased to be a colony of Great Britain (1957) and is still under its great influence.
The investigation into the death of Boeing 777 differs significantly in all parameters from similar investigations that took place in past times.
The death of Boeing 777 contributed to the introduction of sectoral sanctions against the Russian Federation and the creation in the international information space of the image of Russia and its leader as accomplices of terrorism.
11.3. The situation with the death of Boeing 777 led to the creation of an information curtain that diverted attention from the actions of the Ukrainian oligarchs, primarily Igor Kolomoisky, to seize and redistribute property in South-East Ukraine.
Direct legal responsibility for the death of Boeing, according to experts of the analytical group, are the supreme leaders of the ATO.
1.4. The death of Boeing 777 was not just a tragedy, but a planned geopolitical action that fits into the overall concept of the US administration's policy, which aims to achieve a unipolar world and escalate aggression against the Russian Federation, reduce its economic potential, halt the growth of its influence in the world.
12.1. The International Commission of Inquiry to consider the issues and implement the recommendations submitted by the Russian side (see Annex 1) in order to ensure a thorough international, transparent, accountable investigation in the complete cessation of hostilities in the area of the death of Boeing 777.
12.2. Malaysian Airlines to file a claim for financial and reputational damages to the country in whose airspace Boeing 777 died.
12.3. Relatives of persons from the crew and passengers of Boeing 777, who died as a result of the disaster, file claims against the country in whose airspace the Boeing 777 died, just like some German citizens did.
12.4. Aviation companies and other carriers that use rail, sea and land communications refrain from transit routes through the territory of Ukraine until the cessation of hostilities. Otherwise, it is possible not only the death of personnel and passengers and the destruction of property and goods, but also the absence of conditions for a full and objective investigation of a possible incident.
Declare the territory of Ukraine and the airspace above it a zone unsafe for passenger and cargo transit traffic.
1. Issues to be studied for further investigation of the crash of a Boeing 777 of Malaysia Airlines (Deputy Head of the Federal Air Transport Agency, authorized representative of the Russian Federation to participate in the investigation of the circumstances and causes of the crash of Malaysia Airlines Boeing-777 of Oleg Storchevoy).
Issues to be studied for further investigation into the crash of a Malaysia Airlines Boeing 777
25 September 2014 Deputy Director of the Federal Air Transport Agency, authorized representative of the Russian Federation to participate in the investigation into the circumstances and causes of the crash of a Malaysian Airlines Boeing-777 plane Oleg Storcheva sent a letter to the International Commission of Inquiry with a list of outstanding issues that need to be clarified in the course of further investigation.
Actions that need to be done first:
1. The layout of the aircraft’s structural elements, the analysis of damage to the aircraft’s parts and their possible sources of origin are a generally accepted and mandatory element of the investigation;
2. Search for striking elements at the crash site, in parts of the aircraft, upholstery, etc .;
3. Pathological examinations of dead passengers and crew members, including the presence of damaging elements and other foreign bodies and substances;
4. Study of Ukrainian ground-based radar data, including military, including data of primary radars, on the movement of the aircraft, starting with its entry into the airspace of Ukraine;
5. The study of crew talks inside the cabin on the recordings of the internal microphone;
6. Study of radio and telephone conversations of dispatchers of the Dnepropetrovsk ATS center:
- with the "military sector" or the air defense forces of Ukraine;
- with crews of flights SIA-351 (Singapore) and AIC-113 (India);
- other negotiations inside the control room;
7. Receiving and analyzing information on military aircraft flights in the area of armed conflict in the east of Ukraine and in the crash site;
8. Receipt, analysis and verification of information from the Ukrainian side on planned and accomplished missile launches (both in training (including launch simulation) and for combat purposes), including the deployment sites of the corresponding forces and assets;
9. Obtaining and analyzing information about the actual availability and consumption of anti-aircraft guided missiles, all anti-aircraft missile systems that are in service with the armed forces of Ukraine;
10. Acquisition and analysis of data from other countries participating in the investigation of the radar situation in the region (for example, data from US satellites, NATO surveillance equipment (AWACS reconnaissance aircraft) and the Russian Federation)
In addition, it is necessary to study the following data:
As part of the analysis of the air situation:
11. Records of the negotiations of the air traffic services authorities of Ukraine with the crews of aircraft and with the adjacent air traffic control points;
12. Negotiations of pilots of military aircraft with the military sector and among themselves in the area of armed conflict and the crash site;
13. Daily flight plan of the Ukrainian military aircraft for 17.07.2014;
14. Data of means of objective control of military aircraft in the area;
15. Information on incoming instructions to the air traffic management authorities of Ukraine from the aviation administration of Ukraine due to restrictions on the use of airspace (NOTAM publication) in the Donetsk and Lugansk regions, as well as on the procedures established for dealing with aircraft crews and air defense authorities of Ukraine;
16. Evidence of crews of aircraft flying on the day of the crash in a similar area about possible interference with the onboard and ground navigation equipment;
In terms of the radar environment:
17. Information on the composition and performance of Ukrainian ground-based radar equipment;
18. Information on air defense control by Ukraine of the use of airspace in a given area, if such control was exercised, including negotiations between air defense points;
19. Information about the radar tracking of 17.07.2014 aircraft in the area of the plane crash and the locations of the relevant units of the Ukrainian Armed Forces;
20. Analysis of previously submitted data to the Ministry of Defense of Russia on the activation of radar centers in the period close to the time of the crash;
In terms of flight and aircraft preparation:
21. Information on the preparation of the aircraft crew for the flight (including information on whether the crew has information about existing NOTAMs, the level at which the flight was planned, and the reasons for possible changes in the flight plan). In addition, the planning of this flight by the Malaysian side should be studied, including statistics on previous flights on the MN17 flight route;
22. Information on previous failures and malfunctions, open MEL points (shortage or malfunction of any equipment from the minimum required list), especially in terms of navigation equipment;
23. Information on the organization of aviation security in the preparation and execution of the flight (inspection of passengers, baggage and cargo; the presence of dangerous or prohibited goods for transportation).
In the study of flight recorders:
24. It is required to complete the analysis of DFDR data (digital flight data recorder) and CVR (voice information recorder), paying particular attention to the performance of the navigation equipment and trajectory parameters.