The first results of MAKS-2011
10 International Aviation and Space Salon in Zhukovsky MAKS-2011 has become a record for all the years of its holding in sales of civil aviation equipment of Russian manufacture. The total amount of transactions amounted to almost 14 billion dollars.
Recall that the MAKS sites open their doors from 1993, however, it became a full-fledged commercial event in the world of aviation technology in 2003, when the amount of transactions amounted to 1,5 billion dollars. In the majority of transactions, contracts were concluded with companies representing Russia for the supply of domestic samples of aircraft for civilian purposes, military and near-war transactions only had 8%, and foreign ones just less than 10%. In the 2005 year, the amount of transactions was already 5 billion dollars, but the structure of contracts has not changed much. Starting from the 2007 year of MAKS, one can say “militarized” - then a number of fairly large contracts were signed for the delivery of military equipment samples abroad (total cost of 500 million dollars). With all this, the volume of transactions in comparison with MAKS-2005 fell by more than one and a half times and did not exceed 3 billion dollars. At MAKS in 2009, the total amount of confirmed transactions amounted to 10 billion dollars, however, most of them came from the huge purchases of military equipment intended for internal use. The largest agreements of the current year, however, became only the renewal of previously concluded contracts. The total volume of new deals was only 3,7 billion dollars.
The 10 billion-dollar forecast expressed before MAX-2011 was based on previous successes, starting with the breakthrough 2009 year - but this time mainly due to the civilian component. The Russian fleet is aging, which undoubtedly leads to lower profitability and safety. At hundreds of existing units of technology, the term of the operational limit has expired or will expire in the near future. As a result, according to Boeing, Russian firms will acquire at least 2030 new aircraft before 1080 of the year. And the Ministry of Transport spoke about the acquisition of 1600-1800 aircraft before 2025. Therefore, approximately 3,5-6% of the world market in 30 thousands of machines will be in Russia
However, on the way of mass purchases there is a difficult to overcome barrier. The stumbling block for improving the fleet in Russia, as usual, is the extreme “deconsolidation” of the branch. The country today has 138 airlines. As an example, in the United States there are about 200, however, the American air carriers serve a much larger flow of passengers for the respective funds. In Russia, about 85% of all traffic is carried out by 15 by the largest airlines. As a result, the rest elementary have no chance to afford the purchase of modern technology - especially against the background of the current rise in prices for fuel, and, as a result, a significant drop in the profitability of traffic. However, from 2012 onwards, only companies with at least 10 airplanes of the same type will be allowed to fly in Russia (and from 2013 onwards, according to the plan, this figure will be 20 machines). On the one hand, we are pushing out “insolvent trifles” from the air transportation market, on the other hand, this will force the companies providing such services to modernize their technical fleet.
Another advantage of MAKS-2011 can be called the active work of foreign manufacturers. Airbus introduced the A-380 - one of the largest airliners in the world. Representatives of Aeroflot (5 similar aircraft are planned to purchase 1,9 billion dollars at catalog cost) and Transaero, considering A-380 as a modern alternative to Boeing 747-800 (the company has already ordered Airbus 8 A -320 with an option for four cars based on the results of the work).
At MAKS-2011, plans were also announced for the purchase of military aircraft. According to the statement of Alexander Zelin, Commander-in-Chief of the Air Force, his department plans to purchase 120 modern Su-34 bombers (as of today, they have only one Russian Air Force squadron). In 2011, 6 airplanes will enter service for combat squadrons, in the next 2012, 12. The president of Irkut, Alexei Fyodorov, said that their plans for the 2012 year determined the conclusion of a contract to supply the Russian Air Force and Navy 28 tactical fighter Su-30 SM. Dmitry Petrov, the general director of Russian Helicopters, said that during the 2011 year, the Defense Ministry would have at its disposal 450 helicopters, both new and after overhaul and modernization. It was also announced the acquisition of the Ministry of Defense more 100 transport aircraft.
MAKS-2011 quite clearly showed a tendency to modernize and upgrade the existing civil aviation fleet - even at the expense of fairly promising domestic-made aircraft. Of course, in the concluded contracts there is some part of veiled protectionism: one national company acquires airplanes from another in order to lease the third one.
But there is one unpleasant regularity in the results of MAKS-2011, the Russian International Aviation and Space Salon is still very far from Western competitors. At the past this year, the famous French Air Show in Le Bourget transactions were concluded totaling over 100 billion dollars.
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