Military Review

Will puppet

The collapse of Ukraine in the medium term is not just likely, but most likely inevitable.

The elections held in Ukraine and in Novorossia largely determine the prospects for the near future of Russia's relations with the European Union and the Western community as a whole. The reality was not only the dual power in Ukraine and the disruption of the elections to the Rada in the southeast, which contrasted with the high activity of the inhabitants of the region when voting for the leadership of Novorossia. The results obtained in the regions of southern and eastern Ukraine controlled by Kiev are ambiguous. Low turnout - on the verge of a boycott of elections to the Rada - in some areas of this part of the country and the victory of the “Opposition bloc” in others means that the split has worsened.

As a result of the elections, Petro Poroshenko failed to secure a monopoly on power. In Ukraine, diarchy. As Poroshenko and the main beneficiary of the elections, Arseniy Yatsenyuk will share the powers, it is impossible to predict. Whether Ukraine will be a parliamentary or presidential republic, what kind of constitution its views will take is not clear to anyone. One should not disregard the radicals who were rejected by the majority of voters as a parliamentary force but retaining hundreds of thousands of supporters.

Taking into account the factor of Igor Kolomoisky and his henchmen, as well as field commanders, introduced into different factions of the Rada, the continuing issuance of EU passports to compactly living members of national minorities (Hungarians, Czechs, Slovaks, Poles, Romanians, Greeks and Bulgarians), problems of Transcarpathia and other Western of the regions that Stalin once rejected from the countries of Eastern Europe, the future of Ukraine as a single state remains in question. Ahead is the collapse of the economy and social infrastructure of this country. Neither the EU nor the United States will support Ukraine, despite the hopes of Maidan, military assistance does not have the slightest relation to the problems of its population, and financial subsidies are designed to ensure uninterrupted transit of Russian gas to Europe - no more.

It should be noted that everything that happens fits completely into the typical line for US State Department officials to promote their henchmen to power in the countries they care for at any cost. At the same time, we recall, the initial bet of Washington was made on Yatsenyuk, and not on Poroshenko. Accordingly, in the near future, Ukraine will face a power struggle in the upper echelons, primarily between these two people. However, the extent to which the characters chosen by the American bureaucracy as agents of the policy of the United States in one country or another are able to govern the state in the case of Ukraine does not matter. Just as it meant nothing in Iraq, Afghanistan or Libya. Personnel policy in satellite countries has never been a strong point of the Americans.

No gas, no future

Catastrophic dips in the US rates throughout modern stories This country for those or other presidents and prime ministers, as a rule, ultimately leads to the disintegration of states that are forced to submit to American pressure (the role of Europe in this should not be exaggerated - it is more than auxiliary). It is unlikely that the processes in Ukraine will differ from those that we observe in the Middle East. This means that its disintegration in the medium term is not only probable, but most likely inevitable, regardless of the position with respect to it to Russia.

Will puppetA bet on a complete breakdown of economic relations between Kiev and Moscow, including through military-technical cooperation, a demonstrative and demonstrative destruction of the industrial potential of the south-east during the ATU initiated by Kiev, as well as a statement by Western leaders about new anti-Russian sanctions if Moscow recognizes the election results in Novorossia, they confirm the version that everything that is happening in Ukraine is the result of a targeted campaign by the American leadership to “restrict” and “return to natural Russian borders. The emergence of a “former state” in place of Ukraine, engulfed in civil war, is a danger to both Europe and Russia, but it beats the interests of the latter much more. Moscow, unlike Brussels, cannot afford to distance itself from events occurring in the neighborhood, or to ignore their consequences.

Whether Ukraine will preserve the unity of the remaining territories on an anti-Russian basis will split into parts, turn into a war zone of all against all like the one that it represented at the beginning of the twentieth century, or simply into a common European source of crime, refugees and migrants - legal and illegal, not so important. In any case, she will not be a prosperous friendly neighbor of the Russian Federation for at least a long period. The territories breaking away from it, regardless of whether their leadership manifests a desire to unite with Russia or not, will additionally burden the domestic economy and worsen Moscow’s relations with its neighbors, allowing it to play the anti-Russian card in Central Asia, Transcaucasia and Moldova just as it is played in Europe and the Baltics. At the same time, nothing directly threatens America, and it can and will sacrifice the interests of the European Union, as it always does.

The latter once again raises the question that a significant part of states in the modern world no longer has real sovereignty. More precisely, countries, including developed Western states that joined the US campaign against Russia because of the situation in Ukraine, often contrary to their own vital interests, clearly demonstrated that they do not have such sovereignty and can be regarded as if they are not American-occupied territories However, if we recall the geography of the deployment of US bases outside their own borders, this is true in the literal sense of the word), then as the political colonies of Washington. That, of course, will be refuted by Japan, Korea, Canada, Australia or the EU countries, but in fact exactly corresponds to the real situation.

At the same time, as long as no steps towards the West in the Ukrainian conflict still will not be credited to Moscow as a gesture of goodwill and the response from its antagonists will not follow, this completely unleashes the Russian leadership. Whatever it does, pressure will increase, sanctions tighten, and rhetoric will not soften. As a result, Moscow’s further activities in all areas of its foreign policy currently being pursued are exclusively in their own national interests, like the Americans do. It’s not by chance that the Arabs say: “Do not listen to what America advises you, do what America does.” It is possible that for Russia this is the best recommendation - and not only in relation to Ukraine.

It is characteristic that immediately after the parliamentary elections in the south-east of Ukraine, at the initiative of Kiev, hostilities resumed. The fact that the Ukrainian army, upon completion of a relatively short truce, will be able to conduct them with a better result than before it, professional experts do not believe. Recall that the “Minsk agreements”, according to which fighting was supposed to cease in the zone of the “anti-terrorist operation,” were reached at a time when the militia of Novorossia led the offensive in several directions, and the Ukrainian army and the National Guard retreated, leaving Mariupol to the mercy of their fate and focusing on a breakthrough from the "boilers", which included large military units controlled by the central government.

On the eve of the onset of winter, official Kiev clearly demonstrates not a desire to reach agreements with Moscow, but indicative unfriendly gestures. This activity is not rational, but fully corresponds to the role of the puppet of the United States, who relied on the maximum deterioration of Russian-Ukrainian relations, the rupture of bilateral ties and the tough confrontation of the former "fraternal Soviet republics". After the elections, even those relatively modest steps towards Moscow that President Poroshenko allowed himself to do will be blocked by Yatsenyuk, known for his outrageous statements about Russia. Moreover, any compromise with Gazprom will be regarded by him and his faction in the Rada as a betrayal of national interests - with all of the ensuing consequences in a belligerent country.

Accordingly, the problem of providing the country with energy resources is solved by Ukrainian leaders any way except the simplest one: paying Russia gas debts and restoring cooperation with Moscow. In addition to attempts to organize a reverse from Europe, which are suppressed and will continue to be stopped by Gazprom in accordance with the contracts that it concluded with consumers in the West, these are possible deliveries of Qatari LNG through Poland, the Baltic States and Belarus. The supply of private Ukrainian consumers, from the point of view of official Kiev, can and should be ensured by converting local boilers from natural gas to alternative fuels. As for the national scale, the Ukrainian leadership has recently been trying to negotiate the supply of Central Asian gas to the country, bypassing Russia.

On November 4, Turkmen media reported on the meeting of the head of the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry, Pavel Klimkin, with President Gurbanguly Berdymukhammedov. It, among other things, discussed the lobbying capabilities of Ukraine in the European Union (!) To promote the construction of the Trans-Caspian gas pipeline (TCG). According to sources, Klimkin argued that Kiev has enough political weight to promote the project in Brussels if it includes a branch to Ukraine, allowing it to supply Turkmen fuel without engaging the Russian gas transmission system.

Paying tribute to the most adventurous way of posing the issue, which fully characterizes the style of the foreign policy of the Ukrainian leadership, we recall the contacts between Kiev and Ashgabat that have been operating since the presidents of Kuchma and Niyazov in the economic, financial and military-political spheres, including large-scale deliveries to Turkmenistan tanks, which then "surfaced" in Afghanistan. The relations of the top leadership of the two countries, including informal ones, have more than a solid base. Given the current aggravation of the domestic political crisis in Ukraine, which tends to develop into a full-scale civil war and the collapse of the country, in parallel with the growing threats to Turkmenistan in the Afghan direction and its tense relations with Russia on the gas issue, an attempt to cooperate in the “friendship against Moscow” format is quite logical.

The latter explains a lot in the course of domestic Gazprom to achieve full autonomy of natural gas supplies to the south of Russia. In 2013, the Stavropol region on 40 percent depended on the stability of Moscow’s relations with the Central Asian republics. At the same time, gas was supplied to Russia at export prices - up to 380 dollars per thousand cubic meters, and was used at domestic prices. To date, the gas supply scheme that has been in effect since the USSR times has been rebuilt. By the end of October 2014, the construction of the linear part of the gas pipeline “Izobilny” - Nevinomyssk was completed; Immediately afterwards, during his visit to Turkmenistan, the deputy chairman of the Gazprom board, Alexander Medvedev, announced the termination of purchases of Turkmen gas for the coming years: Ashkhabad’s refusal to offer price discounts to Russia led to a natural result.

The inevitable consequence of this - given the simultaneous sharp reduction or complete cessation of Iranian gas purchases by Iran for internal reasons - will be the demarches of official Ashgabat against Moscow and the remnants of the Russian-speaking population of the republic (which took place more than once in independent Turkmenistan), as well as attempts to intensify the construction of the TAG, which is impossible without full assistance to this project of Azerbaijan. Whether Central Asia will retain its export potential in the event of a strike from Afghanistan on the territory of the post-Soviet republics of armed Islamists, whether this strike is directed at the Murghab valley, the Surkhandarya region or the Fergana valley, is a question that has no answer. However, it is safe to assume that any energy project that includes the anti-Russian component, economic or political, will be supported by the European Union and the United States. What President Berdymukhammedov undoubtedly takes into account.

Commonwealth of warring states

The policies of the countries of the Western bloc and their Middle Eastern allies are no less fanciful than the Ukrainian one. There is no strategy there, except for the desire to dominate at any cost at the expense of competitors, opponents, and in case of partners, is not visible. All agreements are temporary. Alliances arise only against someone, and all members of alliances of this kind simultaneously with the struggle against the enemy or competitor are trying to establish a system of informal contacts at the expense of the partners. Strong states neglect the interests of weaker allies, and the United States - the interests of all of them together, forming in essence a “terrarium of like-minded people." Openly speaking against a country, Washington does not hesitate to ask it to join the next coalition or to support the diplomatic initiative if the need arises. An example is the relationship of the United States with Russia and Iran.

At the moment, the United States intends to hold resolutions on limited no-fly zones in Syria and Yemen in the UN Security Council and is trying to draw Russia into this game. In the first case, under the pretext of fighting the Islamic State (IS), in reality, they are hoping to implement the Libyan scenario in Syria and overthrow Bashar Assad with the hands of the so-called moderate opposition, which Saudi Arabia and Turkey form from the same Islamists who are formally fighting the existing IG coalition. In the second, in order to preserve the status quo in Yemen in the interests of Saudi Arabia, which was disturbed after the Northerners, supporters of Shi'ite Zeidite Islam, not only defeated the Hashed tribal Sunni formations and eliminated al-Qaeda militants in the north of the country , but also took full control of the capital - Sana'a and the major port on the Red Sea - Hodeida, through which logistic supply channels passed weapons on the Horn of Africa and the Arabian Peninsula.

With Iran, the Americans, without lifting the sanctions imposed by the States on Tehran because of its nuclear program, de facto cooperate in exchanging information on IS and transferring weapons to the Kurds who are at war with the Islamists in Syrian territory, and this causes serious friction in the US’s relations with Turkey and Saudi Arabia. In addition, Washington is trying to find regional support for the period after the withdrawal of the main military contingent deployed in Afghanistan: the Islamic Republic of Iran has been invited to participate in projects in Afghanistan through the relevant Pentagon agency. However, Washington categorically objects to strengthening Iran’s position in Lebanon, demanding that Beirut not accept the military assistance offered by Iran, as well as in Syria and Iraq. Tehran, in turn, continues to support Shiite communities and organizations in the region, including the Yemeni Housits, the Lebanese Hezbollah and Iraqi sadrists, as well as the Assad government, the Shiites of Eastern Saudi Arabia and Bahrain.

Saudi Arabia and Qatar are fighting among themselves, using terrorist groups: Salafists - on the one hand, and supporters of political Islam like the Muslim Brotherhood - on the other. The balance of forces that they form around them changes with kaleidoscopic speed. Thus, Riyadh ousted Tehran from Sudan: Khartoum closed all Iranian cultural centers in the country, which were considered in that country as a cover for the residency of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards. However, Doha benefited from this: ahead of the Saudis, Qatar literally bought out Sudan from them, including by guaranteeing deliveries of liquefied gas to that country, which gave the president the much-needed hydrocarbon reserve he did not depend on the situation in South Sudan and Juba’s relations with Khartoum.

Thus, Sudan fell out of the anti-Ethiopian alliance formed by Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Eritrea remained in it. Ethiopia, with its course of cooperation with the United States and a deadly dangerous hydropower project for Egypt on the Blue Nile, is the original enemy of Eritrea. The Salafi preachers, supported by Riyadh, were at one time exiled by Addis Ababa from the Muslim-populated Somali ethnic origin of Ogaden, replaced by the “moderate Islamists” supported by Qatar. As a result, Saudi Arabia has lost ground in Ethiopia in favor of Qatar, in contrast to Egypt. There, on the contrary, the army supported by the Saudis ousted President Mohammed Mursi with his pro-Cathar Muslim Brotherhood government.

As a specific detail of the current state of relations between the United States and Saudi Arabia, we note that the rearmament of the Egyptian army with Saudi money will be peaked for Washington not by the US military industrial complex, but by France, which the kingdom lobbies, and Russia, whose weapons in a number of positions are preferred by Cairo. Formally, Egypt is in a coalition against the IG, but President Al-Sisi is limited to conducting military operations against the Islamists on the Sinai Peninsula, including creating a buffer zone on the border with the Gaza Strip, maintaining the status quo on the Saudi-Iraqi border, and fighting terrorists inside country.

Simply put, Ukraine, as an American satellite, was not entirely in the company where it was striving. But this is currently only her own problem.

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  1. Roman 1977
    Roman 1977 19 November 2014 18: 03
    Somehow like this...

    1. herruvim
      herruvim 19 November 2014 18: 10

      The Ukrainian fleet has the only submarine - Zaporozhye, as ancient as Brezhnev’s eyebrows.

      For more than 20 years, it has been under repair and serves three purposes: to justify the existence of twenty admirals at the headquarters of the Ukrainian Navy, regularly to cut budget funds allocated for repairs and to maintain healthy naval humor.

      The first look at the submarine confirms that it was she who inspired Hollywood directors to shoot the comedy “Raise the Periscope”, in which Jung asks: “Sir, how does our vessel keep afloat?”, And the captain replies: “This is thanks to a huge pile tightly stuck g ... for gulls, son. "

      When the boat was lifted for the next endless repair to the dock of the 13th (good figure) shipyard in Sevastopol, its buoyancy was regulated by a thick layer of cormorant manure above the waterline, and a no less thick layer of mussels, shells and algae below the waterline.

      To the mother’s alarming letter, crying sleepless nights about the fate of her submariner’s son, the sailor called up to serve in the Navy wrote: “Mommy, don’t worry about me. The boat is firmly welded with rails to the pier. Rails are reliable, Soviet. And the pier was still being built by Admiral Nakhimov. There are no batteries on the boat, so the power line is connected to it. Until the end of my service, she’s definitely not moving. ”
      1. Roman 1977
        Roman 1977 19 November 2014 18: 33
        Quote: herruvim
        The Ukrainian fleet has the only submarine - Zaporozhye, as ancient as Brezhnev’s eyebrows.

        I know I would gladly laugh with you at the stupid Ukrainians and their underwater "choven", if not for one simple fact that the submarine "Zaporozhye" captured in March 2014 in Crimea is INCLUDED IN THE BLACK SEA FLEET is the ONLY our submarine on the Black Sea capable of submerging under water.
        1. Cristall
          Cristall 20 November 2014 23: 23
          Quote: Novel 1977
          one simple fact that the submarine "Zaporozhye" captured in March 2014 in Crimea is INCLUDED IN THE BLACK SEA FLEET

          Well, at least I got the truth .. but then honestly ... let's give up the fleet .. and here everything is captured / turned on / trophy-war.
      2. raccoon
        raccoon 19 November 2014 18: 50
        Parting words to UKRfashimstam:
        Soak in the outhouse may not be,
        but first, let’s warn you
        so that they bring down good to their mother
        otherwise we’ll hurt hard in the face.
        From New Russia carry your legs
        while with memory and with his pants,
        And if not, then the gods forgive us,
        that your ashes were not dispelled at home ...
        And pass on to your Gentiles,
        that the Russians should not be joked.
        Ancestral victories warm our heart
        where the fascist evil we are able to exterminate!
    2. Giant thought
      Giant thought 19 November 2014 18: 43
      Nedolog will be the century of fascist Ukraine.
    3. The comment was deleted.
  2. Denis fj
    Denis fj 19 November 2014 18: 11
    It's time to ruin Ukraine. He doesn’t repay debts, he demands gas for free, insults, and crap. Why such a neighbor? There will be no Ukraine - the issue of Crimea is automatically solved. Anyway, it will be easier to get debts when the pro-Russian government is in power ...
    1. Andrea
      Andrea 19 November 2014 18: 45
      You don’t need to collapse, it itself will fall apart if it will shove in the same direction.
      And so, I think, to separate Galicia, to drive all the trash there, and let them roll to their Europe, maybe the Poles will remind them of how their ancestors were put on a stake.
    2. Cristall
      Cristall 20 November 2014 23: 27
      Quote: denis fj
      It's time to ruin Ukraine. He doesn’t repay debts, he demands gas for free, insults, and crap. Why such a neighbor? There will be no Ukraine - the issue of Crimea is automatically solved.

      Ukraine tried to ruin (or rather tried) the Russian Federation to solve the Crimean problem, but this is not an option. Yes, and fail. Well don’t want the sponsors to collapse. They need Ukraine as a knife for Russia.
      And the fact that you justify it as a solution to the problem of Crimea is so generally pleasing ... it’s normal to capture Crimea and now solve problems due to the collapse of Ukraine .. it’s somehow strange.
      The question is why do we need such a neighbor who, on occasion, wants us to collapse and solve problems with our seized property? I will rephrase you.
      Ukraine will be ... at least as a source of Russian problems. And for a long time. Here is the Kremlin's fault ... the fault of the "face with a brick."
  3. konvalval
    konvalval 19 November 2014 18: 13
    The fact that Ukraine got chaos is a fact. And there is no end in sight.
  4. dimdimich71
    dimdimich71 19 November 2014 18: 14
    Yes, Ukraine got the blue dream ... for the most want ... and the most interesting skipping ..
  5. ALABAY45
    ALABAY45 19 November 2014 18: 20
    "on the supply of Central Asian gas to the country bypassing Russia"
    How simple it is for Svidomo! The gas "hose", only very long, was thrown and that's it! Gas "peremoga"! Extremely stupid, "brotherly" people ... Nothing but a gag reflex causes ...
  6. parafoiler
    parafoiler 19 November 2014 18: 26
    Mediocrity with bloated conceit.
    1. Penelope
      Penelope 19 November 2014 19: 08
      Selling rulers of Ukraine probably will not die with their death.
  7. Major Yurik
    Major Yurik 19 November 2014 18: 26
    The collapse of dill into cotyledons, a painful process, but inevitable. They did everything themselves, now reap! am
  8. el.krokodil
    el.krokodil 19 November 2014 18: 27
    Quote: Denis fj
    It's time to ruin Ukraine. He doesn’t repay debts, he demands gas for free, insults, and crap. Why such a neighbor? There will be no Ukraine - the issue of Crimea is automatically solved. Anyway, it will be easier to get debts when the pro-Russian government is in power ...
    ..Ukraine-no! there is the Donbass and the remains of dill .. everything will fall apart by itself ..
  9. Password
    Password 19 November 2014 18: 43
    About ukroRuinu as a state puppet, everything is true. But somehow everything is intertwined and confused, either in the world, or in this article. The author wants to cover everything at once, I would like more clarity and clarity in the presentation of the material. Or maybe I'm not so understanding myself.
    1. Andrea
      Andrea 19 November 2014 18: 53
      I noticed it right, heaped up be healthy. In fact, several different topics. It is clear that one state all have.
      1. Penzyac
        Penzyac 19 November 2014 20: 01
        Quote: Andrea
        I noticed it right, heaped up be healthy. In fact, several different topics. It is clear that one state all have.

        One amendment - they do not, but try to have, somewhere yes, successfully, but somewhere not, there is only one shame.
      2. persei
        persei 19 November 2014 22: 30
        The main idea that the author voiced is not new, it just reminds ...
        Strong states neglect the interests of weaker allies, and the United States neglects the interests of all of them combined, forming essentially a "terrarium of like-minded people." Speaking openly against a country, Washington is not shy ask it’s about joining another coalition or about supporting diplomatic initiative if such a need arises.
        The word to ask only here is not very appropriate ...
  10. Drunya
    Drunya 19 November 2014 18: 45
    London Maidan little by little.
    cookies to them and tires tires tires
    1. drago36
      drago36 19 November 2014 19: 15
      What was he thinking about? belay
      1. Penzyac
        Penzyac 19 November 2014 20: 02
        Quote: drago36
        What was he thinking about? belay

        Sala asks ...
  11. KBR109
    KBR109 19 November 2014 18: 49
    Demand to pay off debts - this will be for Ukrainians DEFOLT in fact. Economically and legally. Finita La Comedy. Well, bankrupt - under external management. Of Russia.
    1. Messiah
      Messiah 19 November 2014 20: 39
      Debts of Ukraine are bad, creatures in power are even worse! Is it better in Russia? Gold reserves in the treasury, which cannot be exchanged for money, but only receive 2% per annum, corporate debt -600 billion $, the occupational administration in the person of the Government, there is no state, independent legislation, no money of its own, State Bank, Constitutional Council, slave religions! What is there except honor, conscience, pride and hope?
  12. captain
    captain 19 November 2014 18: 57
    A new Khazaria has appeared in Ukraine. People of a certain nationality came to power. They came with the help of nationalists from Galicia, who started a war for identity. And in such wars, only victory is needed, and not when real Ukrainians from Galicia and not real from the Southeast agree between themselves. This suits the current government in Kiev. In troubled waters, the sack of Ukraine and the destruction of the most passionate part of the people are going on.
  13. Tribuns
    Tribuns 19 November 2014 19: 52
    I looked at the comments on the post of the leading Russian expert in the field of Israeli politics Satanovsky and noticed that no one commented on his arguments ... In my opinion, because thoughts jump in him, like Khlestakov's in "The Inspector General": he began with elections and dual power in Kiev, then he jumped to gas and the lack of a future in Ukraine, then he jumped to the commonwealth of warring states, and all these transitions or jumps existing autonomously from each other are not fastened by logical conclusions-couplings ... Therefore, I did not like Satanovsky's message as not giving not only recommendations for the actions of our government in relation to the radical regime of Kiev, but also not containing creative ideas for the reader about methods of information countermeasures to the Kiev media ... Is it really impossible to clearly focus the problems of the Kiev regime in connection with the catastrophic situation in Donbass that interests us - the destruction of the Russian-speaking population ... This is what, in our opinion, the main thing ... The rest - departure from the main topic!
  14. Alfizik
    Alfizik 19 November 2014 22: 30
    It is necessary to set the condition that gas will go to Europe only through the Donbass. In this case, Kiev will have to negotiate and end the war.
  15. Cristall
    Cristall 20 November 2014 23: 30
    yes delusional articles with one goal - to create a background. The background is that Ukraine is about to fall apart, that it has problems, that it is plotting ... that it is the number one enemy for the Russian Federation.
    Now it’s getting close to the gas .. it's generally the holy of holies of the Russian Federation ..
    Lots of articles for the background. And as articles about the "collapse of Ukraine" have probably been reading for years. But she just doesn't want to. She wants to create problems for the Russian Federation. She wants KRym back.