Military Review

Will Turkey decide to wage war on three fronts?

Will Turkey decide to wage war on three fronts?

Since the summer of 2014, the sharply armed Islamic State Islamic Group (IG), which seized control of part of the territories of Syria and Iraq and announced the creation of a caliphate, has dramatically changed the situation in the Middle East.

Determining what interests the United States pursues in Iraq and Syria after the IS group suddenly burst into the regional military-political scene is not so simple. In Iraq, the Americans are trying to take advantage of the chaos that arose as a result of the summer offensive of the Islamic State to strengthen their positions in this country with the richest oil reserves. Previous weeks showed that strokes aviation The United States and its allies in IS fighters are not enough to destroy this group. If a decision is made on the deployment of US troops in Iraq, military bases will be needed to ensure the presence of troops on a long-term basis. As reported, the Americans are already creating a military base in Iraqi Kurdistan (Harir military airfield).

The "Islamic State" is gradually bringing the front of military operations to the borders of Iran. The expansion of the zone of military conflict leads to aggravation of the Shiite-Sunni and Iranian-Arab confrontations. Neither Shiites, nor Sunnis, nor Arabs, nor Iranians need this. And who needs then?

The difficult situation is in Syria. In Ankara, as in Washington, they did not abandon the goal of overthrowing the government of Bashar Assad. There are indications that the rapid strengthening of the “Islamic State” did not occur without the help of Turkey, in any case, the territory of this country was freely used to replenish the IG’s ranks by foreign fighters. Now Washington is insistently inviting Turkey to participate in the fighting on the territory of Syria against the Islamists who are at war with the Syrian government. Meanwhile, in the south-east of Turkey, Kurdish rebel groups have intensified: Turkish Kurds do not intend to calmly watch the IS exterminate their brothers in northern Syria.

The United States is increasing pressure on Turkey, including for a more active involvement of this country in its anti-Russian agenda. In the West, they understand that the overthrow of Bashar al-Assad is difficult, as long as Damascus has the support of Iran along with its allied Shiite groups, and Russia can block anti-Syrian resolutions in the UN Security Council. This is another reason why Western pressure on Russia and Iran is not decreasing.

If we talk about the situation in the north of Syria, then Turkey, without abandoning the plans to overthrow Bashar Assad, is trying to solve two more tasks - to prevent outrage of “its” Kurds and not get bogged down in the war with the “Islamic state”. Therefore, for example, the Turkish side, in order to defuse the situation a bit, did not hinder the transition of the Peshmerga column from Iraqi Kurdistan to Kobani through Turkey. However, the Syrian Kurdish self-defense forces do not need help in manpower (there is enough of it), they need heavy weapons, which the United States and Turkey have denied them.

On November 14, the Hurriyet newspaper reported that Ankara’s negotiations between the Turkish and US military on training militants of the opposition Free Syrian Army (SSA), which are supposed to be used to fight both the Syrian government army and the Islamic State, came to an end. Two thousand militants in the gendarmerie training center in Kırshehir province in central Turkey have already been trained.

Meanwhile, Bashar Assad granted de facto autonomy to the Syrian Kurds in the areas of the north of the country inhabited by them. An alliance of Syrian Kurds and official Damascus has developed. Ankara, for its part, considers the military structures of the Syrian Kurds branches of the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), which is banned in Turkey. Now on the borders of Turkey - in Northern Iraq and in Northern Syria - there are de facto autonomous Kurdish entities, and this can not but inspire the PKK to continue the struggle with the Turkish authorities.

If the entire strange war of the United States with the “Islamic State” is only a cover for the old task of the Obama administration to overthrow the government of Bashar al-Assad in Syria by proxy, then Turkey does not risk solidarity with the Middle East plans of its NATO ally three fronts - against the Syrian government army, against the armed units of the Kurdistan Workers' Party and against the terrorists of the “Islamic State”, which plans to extend the “caliphate” to the Turkish territory?

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  1. Mama_Cholli
    Mama_Cholli 18 November 2014 14: 12
    It’s time to look for other places for Russian tourists to relax - for example, Crimea ...
    1. Giant thought
      Giant thought 18 November 2014 14: 27
      The Turks themselves kneaded this mess, now they don’t know how to get out of it with less loss.
      1. mig31
        mig31 18 November 2014 15: 22
        Osmanam is unenviable - ran into an old rake ...
      2. Denis fj
        Denis fj 18 November 2014 16: 05
        Erdogan will not do too much, and he considers Americans to be superfluous in this region, because starting from the opposite, he perfectly understands that there will be no American interference and conflicts will come to naught, everyone will be able to agree, unite and join. Now, the United States pits everyone together, trying at all costs to prevent the war in the region from fading away. The creation of the SSA is ambiguous, once after all, ISIS was created to overthrow Assad. Let while Turkey and Washington smile at each other, not listening to hands from their pockets.
        1. 225chay
          225chay 18 November 2014 20: 33
          Quote: denis fj
          Erdogan will not do too much, and he considers Americans to be superfluous in this region, because starting from the opposite, he perfectly understands that there will be no American interference and conflicts will come to naught, everyone will be able to agree, unite and join. Now, the United States pits everyone together, trying at all costs to prevent the war in the region from fading away.

          There Israel, without the United States, is intensely drawing Turkey into some sort of d ... my ...
      3. Aibolit64
        Aibolit64 18 November 2014 16: 14
        Oh, the Turks will play out. They will deceive themselves. Nobody could sit on two chairs, and the Turks try to sit on three.
        1. Penelope
          Penelope 18 November 2014 19: 29
          And Putin Erdogan warned by telephone that if the Turks climb into Syria to fight, they would regret it, which means a fourth front.
        2. The comment was deleted.
    2. vodolaz
      vodolaz 18 November 2014 18: 59
      The Turks are trying to sit down one ass on 3 chairs, it won’t work out, they are being pulled out by those whom this does not suit.
    3. The fat man
      The fat man 18 November 2014 21: 55
      It’s time to look for other places for Russian tourists to relax - for example, Crimea.

      but you don’t mind that prices at Russian resorts break all imaginary and unimaginable records

      and as a general I am silent
  2. Deadmen
    Deadmen 18 November 2014 14: 16
    the Americans stirred up wasp nests and completely lost control over them.
    1. calocha
      calocha 18 November 2014 14: 54
      The fact that control is lost over them is one of the myths! Judging by the steps (actions) of ISIS, everything is coordinated from a single center, everything is competent and smooth ... Tributes (taxes) are collected from the territories, oil is sold, weapons are bought ... fueled abroad co-religionists.
  3. Belisarios
    Belisarios 18 November 2014 14: 21
    There are infinitely long fish, donate bones and ride on a boat (s) the Turks will not work.
    The author did not mention the fourth front: the Turks. almost openly help the Iserbajans in confrontation with the Armenians.
  4. dr.star75
    dr.star75 18 November 2014 14: 38
    Erdogan now needs to worry about his place, and not about Asadov. Assad Russia supports, and his -sga, those are still allies ..
  5. el.krokodil
    el.krokodil 18 November 2014 14: 47
    the Turks are creating a dangerous situation .. are they hoping for NATO? so the British and Germans in history and the allies were both British and Germans .. and with all they snatched up a lyuley ... it’s true when Turkey fought with RUSSIA laughing ..all the same climb into the fire .. recourse .
  6. calocha
    calocha 18 November 2014 14: 48
    Turkey’s task is to annex the Syrian lands previously owned by them, at the same time solve the Kurdish issue with the help of ISIS. Then, the coalition will attack Assad and overthrow him to move to Iran or Central Asia ..
  7. Velizariy
    Velizariy 18 November 2014 16: 16
    Quote: xasharat
    Quote: calocha
    Turkey's task to annex Syrian lands previously owned by them

    most likely it is. It is unlikely that Turkey will want to have the state of Kurdistan in the neighborhood. Which was not with the family.

    Quote: calocha
    move to Iran or Central Asia

    I do not agree.

    He wants to, doesn’t want to - he’ll have to ... most likely this state will be and soon
    Central Asia .. Nobody has yet canceled Azerbaijan and Armenia ... Turkey has also been unstable, shaking Turkey’s brotherly Azerbaijan will force Russia to fulfill its allied obligations to Armenia, and this is where the big war between Europeans and Russians will begin! Not with the Ukrainian Civil War, but with the upcoming Russian-Turkish ...
    1. calocha
      calocha 18 November 2014 20: 45
      Perhaps ... I forgot to mention the Caucasus ... Much depends on the situation ....
  8. Robert Nevsky
    Robert Nevsky 18 November 2014 20: 49
    Turkey faces collapse!
    1. The fat man
      The fat man 18 November 2014 21: 58
      Turkey faces collapse!

      who will be happier from this?
  9. Velizariy
    Velizariy 19 November 2014 11: 19
    [quote = Velizariy] Azerbaijan and Armenia have not been canceled yet .. [/ quote]
    Yes, because of Armenia they have a haemorrhage with everyone, no, in Armenia they obviously have nothing to do. They can enter Azerbaijan only with the permission of the Azerbaijani authorities. For example, on the border with Azerbaijan near Nakhchivan, they have a military base on the territory of Turkey, this base is responsible for the security of that region .... they are at home, despite their tasks.
    [quote = Velizariy] will force Russia to fulfill allied obligations to Armenia [/ quote]
    Turkey has hemorrhoids, and so lacking without Armenia. [/ Quote]
    Armenia does not play any role absolutely as the goal itself, like Azerbaijan ... Yes, and Turkey's hemorrhoids are not interesting, it is important for the "partners" to destabilize the situation in southern Russia, create chaos there, otherwise it is possible only at the beginning of a conflict, a full-scale conflict between Armenia. and Azerbaijan with the subsequent participation of Turkey. And even with the threat of defeat and loss of such an outpost in the region as Armenia, Russia will be forced to intervene and prevent the establishment of a bridgehead on its southern borders, which will lead to a large-scale war with the participation of the EU countries, NATO members. The war will most likely be fought, mainly on the territory of all of Turkey and part of Greece, possibly in the Balkans ... But nuclear weapons will not be used, perhaps tactical but not strategic ...