Soviet Union: 20 years later. Other has been given
With questions about how this world could turn out to be, we turned to our authors, who in one way or another, each in their own way, study various aspects of global futurology. It is clear that the images of the “alternative present” drawn by them can always be challenged and questioned - if only because “the real история went the other way. "
But let's not forget: this "other way" is not a perfect straight line, and at some point in time we can again find ourselves at a crossroads, in a similar "bifurcation point", and then our choice can and should turn out to be completely different than in 1991 year
ALEXANDER NAGORNY, POLITICAL SCIENTIST, DEPUTY CHIEF EDITOR OF THE "TOMORROW" NEWSPAPER.
After the death of the Soviet Union, the “bipolar world” scheme, which existed from 1945 to 1991, collapsed. In this scheme, also referred to as Yalta-Potsdam, the United States, acting as the main geostrategic agent of large financial capital and under the cover of the cold war bugger, together with the Soviet Union carried out the redistribution of the "old" colonial empires of European countries: primarily the British and french. By the end of 60, this redistribution was actually completed, after which the era of “detente” and “peaceful coexistence of two socio-political systems” began quite naturally, following which the USSR lost not only the status of a “second superpower” and its own zone of geostrategic influence but was completely destroyed and divided into a dozen and a half "new independent states".
However, instead of the “bipolar world”, it was not the “unipolar” Pax Americana that emerged - although the Americans were striving to consolidate and format it all the way until 2008, before the global financial and economic crisis began. But firstly, they didn’t have enough of their own forces to do this, and secondly, the “image of the enemy” did not prove to be the point of application of the existing and attracted forces that the Soviet Union had served for almost half a century. The attempt to replace “communism” with “Islamic terrorism”, symbolized by the twin towers of the World Trade Center in New York 11 in September 2001, turned out to be absolutely failed, and in Washington’s 2008 "I had to start a complete reformatting of my foreign policy, redirecting the passionarity of the Islamic world from the western to the eastern direction, which Sergey Kurginyan defined as the formation by the Big West (US and EU, the" golden billion ") of the Greater South (Muslim "green billion") against the Big East (the rapidly growing countries of Southeast Asia, especially China and India, where nearly three billion people live). Japan can join the Greater East at almost any moment, which is currently part of the Greater West.
This “new global triangle” in the future deprives Russia of even the formal status of a great power of the modern world, which it inherited from the Soviet Union, and is preparing for it the fate of a geostrategic “prize” for the centers of power of this “global triangle”.
State Emergency Committee 1991 of the year was a natural consequence of the slave and passive participation of the USSR in world politics after the death of Stalin. However, in the Soviet project, undoubtedly, there were completely different intentions, which allowed to win the 1945 Victory of the year, master the energy of the atomic nucleus and implement a space program, the symbols of which were the first artificial satellite of the Earth and the flight of Yuri Gagarin.
These intentions were laid in the “genetic code” of the Russian civilization and manifested not only by the achievements of the Soviet period, but also by the movement of its “meet the sun” in the 16th-17th centuries, when the Russian “pioneers” made a tremendous breakthrough to the Pacific Ocean, quite comparable to European colonization America a century earlier. You can also indicate the victory of Russian weapons over Napoleon's "Great Army" during the Patriotic War 1812 of the year. Or the accession of the Caucasus and Central Asia. Or for the construction of the Trans-Siberian Railway in the early twentieth century, which surpassed in its scale and pace the creation of a transcontinental railway in the United States.
The Emergency Committee, which would have addressed precisely these intentions of the Russian people, even if they were somewhat transformed in the Soviet project, not only had every chance of success - he was simply doomed to it. And it was not by chance that the news about the creation of the State Emergency Committee, which was heard on radio and television in the morning of August 19 1991, was received by the overwhelming majority of the country's population with relief and even joy. However, then the strange stupor and the total inaction of the “gakkachepistov” showed all the farcical and provocative nature of this action with the participation of a number of senior officials of the Soviet state. And all those who wanted and could support the preservation of the Soviet project, felt a frightening metaphysical void behind a beautiful wrapper.
It is not mandatory and absolutely unacceptable in those conditions. The State Emergency Committee acted in the role, relatively speaking, of “collective Gorbachev” and not “collective Stalin.” Could it be otherwise? In those conditions - it is unlikely, almost impossible. However, in principle - it could.
The Soviet project showed that the transition from one technological mode to another, higher and more complex, can be carried out on the basis of collective, even conciliar action, without splitting the "traditional" society into "free market atoms", which in theory since Adam Smith and Hobbes was considered almost a prerequisite for progress.
The Soviet project showed that such a collective, conciliar action has gigantic advantages over the mechanical, external unification of individual efforts, its "utility coefficient" is much higher than that of "ordinary" antagonistic societies.
The Soviet project has shown that it is capable of independent, self-sufficient and self-directed movement across the entire spectrum of human development, significantly increasing its “degrees of freedom” and “degrees of dimensionality”.
The Soviet project showed the highest measure of human socialization, practically unattainable in the framework of "humanistic" projects and comparable to that in the framework of religious projects: "putting your stomach for others" in the framework of Soviet society was not exceptional, but quite massive and regular, not even at the level of exploits, but also in everyday life (the formation of a "man of a new type", in fact, of the evangelical pattern).
The Soviet project also demonstrated a new type of interstate and international relations, based not on domination and subordination, but on sacrifice and gift, with unconditional respect for the rights and dignity of every nation and every state.
If the Soviet Union was preserved - even in its most reduced capacity - it would obviously have been impossible neither a war in Yugoslavia, nor an invasion of American troops in Afghanistan and Iraq, nor the current “civil war” in Libya involving a number of Western powers in favor of one of the parties to the conflict ( here, involuntarily, the civil war in Spain of 1936-1939 was remembered, which became the prologue of World War II). All this could not happen if the Soviet Union was present on the political map of the world (in this context, the surrender of Iraq by the Soviet leadership in 1990 should be viewed as a symptom of the "deadly poisoning" of the USSR).
But its role as an alternative project for the development of mankind was not at all exhausted by the social and political aspects mentioned above. No less important are the metaphysical aspects associated with the existence of the USSR.
And here I fully agree with Sergey Kurginyan, who points out that it was the Soviet project that kept the highest unity of humanity, preventing it from falling into the abyss of Gnostic neoliberalism, that “market fascism” that divides people into creatures of the “first”, “second” "and the" third "variety according to their relation to property, which in this case acts not as a function, but as an argument of human existence.
I will quote a big quote from the speeches of Kurginyan in the Internet program “The Essence of Time”: “I travel a lot around the world and observe some complicated amalgam of feelings that Russia causes in the world. Of course, the fundamental feeling is contempt. Contempt for a country that has rejected its past to a country that moves into corruptionism, banditry, but within the dominance of this contempt (having some shades in India or China, other shades in Europe and the United States, third shades in the Islamic world), within this whole, I repeat, difficult amalgam of contempt stand at the same time some kind of secret waiting. And what if? ..
“What if Russians fool, fool, and then take and take something out of their pocket so that it will be completely new for the whole world - and at the same time recognizable. And what if this“ new and at the same time recognizable ”will save the world? Russian once again they are annoyed, at a great price they will ruin again some way for the development of all mankind? "
The fact is that the human race, losing its essence, loses its unity. And in this loss of unity, sooner or later he will come to the idea of high-rise humanity. And the idea of multi-storey humanity, in which the unity of the species will be canceled - which will be a new and much more subtle kind of fascism - will sooner or later necessarily require Gnostic metaphysics, because it is in Gnostic metaphysics that everything has been brought to its limit. There are “pneumatics”, that is, higher people who live in spirit, creativity, and intellect; "psyche", living only emotions; and "Hilik", living only the body, only the grub and all the rest.
In this - the completion of the plan with all the "Great Yugami", "Big East" and so on. This is the Gnostic, by and large, completion, after which humanity as a whole ceases to exist. And as soon as it ceases to exist as a whole, humanism is no longer in the form in which we are accustomed to it. Why it is impossible to reduce the number of "hilik" in any way if they are not needed? Why can not trample "psyche", if they are not one with you humanity? They are fundamentally, anthropologically, metaphysically - others.
This is the antihuman perspective that the Soviet experience has resisted and continues to confront.
It is clear that communism, as it was: as metaphysics, as a whole, has its deepest roots in chiliastic dreams about the thousand-year kingdom of humanity, about life in justice and solidarity, about the Kingdom of God on Earth, and so on. This line, which after the destruction of the Soviet Union was interrupted with all its overtones. Because the God-building enters these overtones, which said that man himself would become a god. Science is entering, which says that in reality humanity is fighting against Darkness as an entropic principle. Or through humanity, the extrapia of the universe fights against entropy. "
I also travel a lot around the world and I can confirm that these observations of Sergey Kurginyan are absolutely accurate and timely. I will add only that in the "Gnostic" world picture "higher" eons are associated with "lower" only with their emanations, which "sew" "lower" to "higher", thereby ensuring the existence of the first "due to" the second. The "higher" are free at any moment, proceeding from their own interests and desires, to cast the "lower" into the darkness of non-being, depriving them of their radiant emanation. In the role of which today are, of course, and above all, money.
The struggle against entropy, against the second law of thermodynamics, against the "thermal death of the Universe", against death as the fundamental principle of being in general, to the triumph of "eternal life", to the spread of life as a universal phenomenon beyond the Earth and the Solar System - this was the basis of the Soviet project. And all this will sooner or later be claimed by mankind, for which today only one road is marked ahead - after the artiodactyal traces of the “golden calf”. Which, as it is already becoming today, lead, ultimately, to the abyss, and the “golden calf” itself turns out to be both golden and little calf in name, which conceals a completely different and well-known metaphysical text the essence.
Twenty years ago, this entity defeated and destroyed the hostile Soviet Union. First of all, because those who committed the sin of treachery against the country of Judah opened the door to it. But without death there is no resurrection.
VASILY SIMCHERA, HONORABLE DIRECTOR OF THE SCIENCE OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION, VICE PRESIDENT OF THE RUSSIAN ACADEMY OF ECONOMIC SCIENCES, DIRECTOR OF THE INSTITUTE OF STATISTICS OF THE RUSSIAN STATE COMMITTEE IN 2000-2010XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXR
Speaking about how our country could have been if the State Emergency Committee won, preserved the Soviet Union and abandoned the “market reforms” of the liberal-monetarist type, we should not forget that no other State Emergency Committee in the 1991 could have been needed, if with 1985 years instead of the Gorbachev "perestroika" real and urgent socio-economic problems were adequately solved. This is the first unrealized alternative that was in the hands of Soviet Russia.
In other words, understandable even to an inexperienced reader, without any special changes in the structure of the strategic course and financial-economic model, we would continue to develop at a rate fixed in 1978-83, which was 4-5% annually. In this scheme, our country would approach the 2011 year with significant achievements.
At least, the level of GDP in 35 thousand dollars per capita, which today dream out loud in the Kremlin, we would guarantee ourselves, and this would not be a fiction, like the current 15 thousand parity dollars, when oligarchs and state employees are considered together, differing hundreds of thousands and even millions of times. When “rolling down” to 5% “stagnant” annual growth rates over the past 20 years, we would get an increase in the national GDP by 3,4 times, while starting from a very good position. Gorbachev's "restructuring" of 1986-1990 reduced GDP growth to 2,4%, and Yeltsin's “market reforms” took the economy to a deep minus.
That is, if these percentages are translated into the "language" of dollars, then now (with the 29 exchange rate, RUB / USD), even at stagnant rates, we would not have 1,6 trillion. dollars in scale of Russia and not 3,2 trillion dollars in the "post-Soviet space", and about 4,3 trillion. dollars across Russia and 8,6 trillion dollars in the scale of the Soviet Union. In other words, they would occupy the place in the world that China occupies today.
In 1978, CIA analysts determined the economic weight of the United States at about 28% of world GDP, the Soviet Union without the CMEA countries - at 15-16%, and with the CMEA countries - about 20%, and China - at 3-4%. Now we see that the USA has about 23% of world GDP, China has reached the level of 12%, and Russia (at parity) less than 3%.
China is cautious, and we were in no need to be cautious in the middle of the 80's. China had a very low starting base: production, scientific and technical, and accumulative. There simply wasn’t anything to build a modern economy, and they haven’t built it yet, with all the visible successes. They built it on starvation rations and minimum wages in 60-100 dollars per month.
And by that time we already had a manufacturing sector saturated with our own investments and high technologies, on the basis of which already in those years it was possible to guarantee a salary in the equivalent of about 2000 dollars per working person (taking into account cheap housing, low Soviet food prices and tariffs utilities, free education and health care), developed and de facto free education systems, healthcare, transport and communications. Taking into account the growth in the share of dual technologies in the military industrial complex (military industrial complex) and the reduction of expenditures on production investment and defense from 45% to 25%, 20% of GDP, this is at least 400 billion dollars annually, it could be further spent on savings .
Domestic technologies almost completely satisfied and satisfy our domestic market today. We supplied (we continue to supply now) the West with high Russian brains and technologies, and not they. We were successful and competitive in world markets: we had the lowest production costs per unit of production in the world. The price level in the country would be in 2-4 times lower than the real incomes of the population, not only for domestic but also for imported products.
In addition, we already had our own currency market in the framework of the CMEA, based on clearing. Trading at parity, and the parity market for 450 million people is what it is striving for and what the European Union is still not able to reach. That is, today, with those 1,5% population growth, we would have a very socially balanced and economically strong country with a population of about 400 million people. And here you can add the Asian socialist countries, such as Vietnam, Kampuchea, Mongolia and North Korea. We successfully developed not only ourselves, but also developed many other countries, where by the beginning of 1990 we built more than 5 thousand facilities, including oil production for more than 100 million tons, coal - for 200 million tons, mineral fertilizers - by 4,5 mln. tons, 6,6 thousand km of railways and 3 thousand km of highways. Such is the scenario of not even the accelerated, but completely inertial development of the Soviet Union.
Undoubtedly, the general socio-economic system of the USSR demanded structural reforms, primarily in the use of the market mechanism in agriculture, light industry and trade. The level of social and economic development, as well as the implementation of the achievements of the STR, left much to be desired. In fact, we needed to use the “Chinese model”, which implied the introduction of market mechanisms while strengthening political control and labor discipline in society. When reforms were implemented in those years, it was necessary to get rid of corruption. It was not by chance that Deng Xiaoping, the “foreman” of the Chinese reforms, paid the main attention to this issue. This would allow to achieve the solution of the most acute problems of consumption and the introduction of scientific and technological revolution into the real economy by the shortest ways. With our unused reserves of those years, we would get an acceleration of growth rates of up to 8-10% annually. Accordingly, numerical figures for 2011 year would be higher in 1,5-3 times.
The accelerated scenario assumed the maximum use in all areas of the accumulated scientific and technological potential of the USSR, which was either not used at all or was used very limitedly, mainly in the defense industry. The cost of technology alone, which was transported from our country to the West in various ways from the end of 80 until the present day, is estimated at about 2,5 trillion dollars. In this alternative, the renewed Soviet leadership was to conduct integration within the framework of the CMEA in the new quality, primarily by introducing the gold value for the ruble and forming its global financial market. This could have been done at the end of the 80s. Imagine the global crisis of the dollar 2008 of the year and the availability of an alternative reserve unit with a golden denomination!
As for the loss of Soviet assets under Gorbachev and Yeltsin. Only the leakage of "net" capital from the country over these 25 years is estimated to be at least 1,5 trillion. dollars. Plus, the collapse of world commodity prices due to the collapse of the Soviet economy. After all, if not for the reduction in domestic production, we could not export them at all: the Soviet Union consumed up to 400 million tons of oil, 150 million tons of steel, and so on. After the collapse of the USSR, this raw material for half the price went where it was claimed, to foreign markets, which led to a sharp decline in prices for it. Only on this staged conjuncture was lost over 1,5 trillion. dollars.
A separate position is the loss of foreign ownership of the USSR. As noted, the Soviet Union built and fully or partially owned more than five thousand large facilities abroad, including 2,7 thousands of industrial enterprises such as the Bhilai Iron and Steel Works in India or the Aswan Dam in Egypt, for the construction of which more than 500 billions of dollars were spent. . The market price of these objects, which exceeded 1,5 trillion dollars, later, not without guile, was lost, and the objects themselves were cheaply sold out or lost on their own.
Thus, over the past 25 years, taking into account 5 the full years of Gorbachev’s rule, we have totally lost assets for all positions by more than 7 trillions of dollars. Even without taking into account the loss of profits - this is a huge amount. Which, I repeat, could be used not to enrich our "reformers" and their foreign counterparties, but to accelerate the development of the domestic economy.
If, then, with our program of accelerating the NTP, we really would have rushed, we would have our own world monetary and financial system today with the extension of the CMEA zone and the clearing ruble to Yugoslavia, the countries of Southeast Asia, primarily China and Vietnam, as well as Cuba and other Latin American countries - for example, Nicaragua. And this meant that we wouldn’t lose up to 800 billion dollars annually on course “scissors”, as we actually still lose, and the United States wouldn’t make any money on 3,2 trillion from us and other countries. per year, or up to 1 / 4 of the entire volume of its GDP. It should be understood that then we would solve not only the problem of establishing a fair exchange rate, but also the problem of forming initial volumes of liquid assets, without which there are no world currencies.
In order to make the ruble a world reserve currency now, you need 10 trillion. dollars of gold assets. And we - even together with China - until we reach 3 and trillion. dollars. And the Soviet Union lost 7 trillion. just would give the possibility of introducing a "hard" currency ruble. In this case, the growth rates of the Soviet economy would not be 5%, but, like in the People's Republic of China, they would reach 10-12% per year. And this means that the income level of the population of our country could not even be in 4, but 8 times higher than the modern, and the USSR could become the leading economic power of the modern world or come close to it. Neither in the first, nor, especially in the second case, as you understand, no state emergency committee would be necessary and would not take place.
Now, as for the State Emergency Committee itself and the alternative development scenario of the country after 1991, we will say with full responsibility that by the end of 1990, we have already been completely and shamefully divided in the economic sense. Eastern Europe was torn from us, gold reserves were deprived of us, many fundamentally important technological developments, under which all the fundamental discoveries in the field of creating large information systems for planning and managing the national economy and still unparalleled in the world, were taken away from us under the cover of dissident brain drain.
The Emergency Committee should have appeared immediately when Gorbachev was selling the GDR and Eastern Europe to the United States and, in general, to the West. After all, there were no objective socio-economic prerequisites for the collapse of the USSR. When we are told about the threat of hunger and empty store shelves, the question arises: how could this happen if 90 million tons of grain were harvested in the country, and in the “granaries of the Motherland”, that is, the State Reserve system, there were food and industrial goods on five years of full-scale nuclear war? All these tales of the "market" are aimed primarily at hiding a simple and obvious fact: the deficit in the consumer sector was created artificially - just like during the Great Depression in the United States, grain traders burned wheat to prevent price cuts, while millions of people were starving. If the State Emergency Committee wins in August 1991, we would have started from much worse positions than in 1985-1986, however, they were still much better than today's ones.
And in 20 years, even if the economy grew by two percent, we would have increased our GDP by a factor of one and a half and would be closer to modern Japan in terms of its volume. That is, the average per capita GDP we would have today at the level of 20-22 thousands of dollars - again without the current intolerable income gap between a handful of super-rich oligarchs and a poor mass of the rest of the population. That is, the USSR, or rather Soviet Russia, could successfully overcome the emerging negative trends and, during 10 years, resume its economic and financial expansion with the inclusion of traditional regions of the world in our area of influence. Moreover, we could reach an agreement with the People's Republic of China on coordinating our national economic plans in implementing large-scale investment projects, which would have completely differently positioned us in the global division of labor. This could be the situation in the third alternative. Now a lot has been lost. But even with the turn of the Russian Federation into a normal financial and economic channel, we can still fix a lot.
Fragments of the discussion in the newspaper "Tomorrow".
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