REGNUM continues to monitor developments in the global hydrocarbon market. 13 November, the American Petroleum Institute announced the long-awaited data on US oil reserves, which amounted to 373 million barrels. Despite the fact that the figure fell by 1,5 million barrels compared to October, gasoline inventories rose by 1,1 million barrels. The price of Brent crude oil falls below 80 dollars per barrel. The rally continues. A large oil policy is entering a crucial stage: the cost of the OPEC oil “basket” is reduced from $ 78,98 to $ 77,27 per barrel. The cartel is confused by speculation with December futures, as evidenced by data from Bloomberg: November American light oil WTI (Light Sweet Crude Oil) drops in price to $ 12 per barrel. City Bank notes in its report that most OPEC countries need a price higher than 76,96 dollars; Kuwait and Saudi Arabia can finance their expenses at a cost of one barrel of oil in 80 dollars. Below - only in minus.
The US is playing short, trying to deplete the competitors in the global energy market - Saudi Arabia and Russia. This is a blow to the Arctic projects and the state budget of the Russian Federation, which, according to estimates of Morgan Stenley, reduces its revenues by 19 billion dollars with every price drop for 10 dollars. Riyadh, the supplier of Washington, is the most affected by the current conjuncture. The Financial Times, citing experts from the International Energy Agency (IEA), states that by the end of 2014, the United States will bypass Saudi Arabia (that is, Russia - S.Ts..) in terms of daily oil production. In 2013, the situation was the opposite. According to BP, then Saudi Arabia produced the most oil in the world - 542,3 million tons of raw materials, Russia ranked second with 531,4 million tons, and the US only closed the top three - 446,2 million tons. The US Department of Energy looks to the future, predicting oil production in 2015 at the level of 9,5 million barrels of oil per day. In October of this year. America was producing 8,9 million barrels a day, and in December this figure would already exceed 9 million barrels. The IEA goes even further, making a bold forecast: by 2019, oil production in the United States will increase to 13,1 million barrels per day. America is rapidly reducing its dependence on foreign markets. If in 2005, the United States met 60% of the needs of its economy with oil imports, in 2015, only 21% met its needs. This will be the lowest indicator of oil imports from 1969. Despite numerous criticisms of some Russian and foreign media against the Saudis, their positions are more defensive than offensive. The main reason is the increased production of shale hydrocarbons in the United States. Oil production has increased significantly on the shelves in Texas and North Dakota through the use of hydraulic fractionation technology, in which oil is extracted from under rocky rocks under high pressure.
Recall that from 1973 (due to the embargo imposed by Arab countries) to June 2014, the US banned the export of crude oil. Companies could supply only the final product - gasoline and diesel fuel. Now, two Texas energy companies, Pioneer Natural Resources and Enterprise Products Partners, have the right to export ultra-light oil. And this is just the beginning. The Brookings Institution hopes that, with 2015, the United States will export about 700 thousand barrels of oil per day. If Washington achieves what is desired, the geopolitics of the Middle East region will change radically: the majority of states will sign in their own weakness and will be divided in the traditions of the XIX century colonial diplomacy.
The countries of the Persian Gulf are going to counterattack. UAE Energy Minister S. al-Mazrui confirms that the pressure on prices is due to a glut of the oil market due to increased production in the United States. Saudis are starting a return game, reducing, according to RBC's report from 5 November, the rates for American buyers: on December contracts, a discount is provided in 1,6 dollars per barrel to Argus Sour Crude Index against 2,05 dollars in November. The struggle for the consumer market of America began. Saudi Aramco’s Asian and European clients cannot boast of such preferences. For the first time in five months, the price for them has risen: the December contracts for Arab light are at a discount to Dubai / Oman only at $ 0,10 per barrel against $ 1,1 in November.
The Bank of Russia is preparing for different scenarios for the development of the situation, up to a decline in oil prices to 60 dollars per barrel by the end of 2015, predicting in this case a slowdown in Russia's GDP by 3,5 - 4%. However, we have no reason to panic. Americans also show calmness. In November, the US Department of Energy lowered its forecast for the average price of the Brent brand in 2015 by 21,57% to $ 83,42 per barrel. The report of the energy department states that in January the price of the specified mark will be 83 dollars, then it will decline, up to 81 dollars in May, and in the second half of 2015, oil will start to rise in price and by December its price will reach 87 dollars. Washington realizes that the price rally can not last a long time. Otherwise, shale deposits will lose their profitability.
In the confrontation between the United States and OPEC, Russia has the last word. The safety margin of Moscow lies not only in its foreign exchange reserves, but also in raw materials. In addition to the Arctic with its rich subsoil, Russia has the largest reserves of shale oil in the world, which are estimated by analysts from Bank of America Merrill Lynch at 75 billion barrels. The United States is in second place with 60 billion barrels. This is a trump card that can be used at any time. America will not be able to push Saudi Arabia and other countries of the cartel alone for a long time. Bank of America Merrill Lynch has already questioned the sustainability of shale production in the United States, noting that this is one of the most controversial issues on the global oil market. Meanwhile, Gazprom is gaining momentum. Director of Exploration and Development of Gazprom Neft's resource base A. Vashkevich states that the company “will increase funding for a joint project with the Anglo-Dutch concern Shell to develop shale oil (the Bazhenov formation field in Western Siberia - S.Ts..), if Shell will curtail funding due to EU sanctions on Russia. " Moscow accepts the challenge and enters a struggle that promises many trials and accomplishments.
Sarkis Tsaturyan. Big oil politics: all against all
- Author:
- Sargis Tsaturyan
- Originator:
- http://www.regnum.ru/news/polit/1866050.html