Military Review

Sarkis Tsaturyan. Big oil politics: all against all

7
REGNUM continues to monitor developments in the global hydrocarbon market. 13 November, the American Petroleum Institute announced the long-awaited data on US oil reserves, which amounted to 373 million barrels. Despite the fact that the figure fell by 1,5 million barrels compared to October, gasoline inventories rose by 1,1 million barrels. The price of Brent crude oil falls below 80 dollars per barrel. The rally continues. A large oil policy is entering a crucial stage: the cost of the OPEC oil “basket” is reduced from $ 78,98 to $ 77,27 per barrel. The cartel is confused by speculation with December futures, as evidenced by data from Bloomberg: November American light oil WTI (Light Sweet Crude Oil) drops in price to $ 12 per barrel. City Bank notes in its report that most OPEC countries need a price higher than 76,96 dollars; Kuwait and Saudi Arabia can finance their expenses at a cost of one barrel of oil in 80 dollars. Below - only in minus.

The US is playing short, trying to deplete the competitors in the global energy market - Saudi Arabia and Russia. This is a blow to the Arctic projects and the state budget of the Russian Federation, which, according to estimates of Morgan Stenley, reduces its revenues by 19 billion dollars with every price drop for 10 dollars. Riyadh, the supplier of Washington, is the most affected by the current conjuncture. The Financial Times, citing experts from the International Energy Agency (IEA), states that by the end of 2014, the United States will bypass Saudi Arabia (that is, Russia - S.Ts..) in terms of daily oil production. In 2013, the situation was the opposite. According to BP, then Saudi Arabia produced the most oil in the world - 542,3 million tons of raw materials, Russia ranked second with 531,4 million tons, and the US only closed the top three - 446,2 million tons. The US Department of Energy looks to the future, predicting oil production in 2015 at the level of 9,5 million barrels of oil per day. In October of this year. America was producing 8,9 million barrels a day, and in December this figure would already exceed 9 million barrels. The IEA goes even further, making a bold forecast: by 2019, oil production in the United States will increase to 13,1 million barrels per day. America is rapidly reducing its dependence on foreign markets. If in 2005, the United States met 60% of the needs of its economy with oil imports, in 2015, only 21% met its needs. This will be the lowest indicator of oil imports from 1969. Despite numerous criticisms of some Russian and foreign media against the Saudis, their positions are more defensive than offensive. The main reason is the increased production of shale hydrocarbons in the United States. Oil production has increased significantly on the shelves in Texas and North Dakota through the use of hydraulic fractionation technology, in which oil is extracted from under rocky rocks under high pressure.

Recall that from 1973 (due to the embargo imposed by Arab countries) to June 2014, the US banned the export of crude oil. Companies could supply only the final product - gasoline and diesel fuel. Now, two Texas energy companies, Pioneer Natural Resources and Enterprise Products Partners, have the right to export ultra-light oil. And this is just the beginning. The Brookings Institution hopes that, with 2015, the United States will export about 700 thousand barrels of oil per day. If Washington achieves what is desired, the geopolitics of the Middle East region will change radically: the majority of states will sign in their own weakness and will be divided in the traditions of the XIX century colonial diplomacy.

The countries of the Persian Gulf are going to counterattack. UAE Energy Minister S. al-Mazrui confirms that the pressure on prices is due to a glut of the oil market due to increased production in the United States. Saudis are starting a return game, reducing, according to RBC's report from 5 November, the rates for American buyers: on December contracts, a discount is provided in 1,6 dollars per barrel to Argus Sour Crude Index against 2,05 dollars in November. The struggle for the consumer market of America began. Saudi Aramco’s Asian and European clients cannot boast of such preferences. For the first time in five months, the price for them has risen: the December contracts for Arab light are at a discount to Dubai / Oman only at $ 0,10 per barrel against $ 1,1 in November.

The Bank of Russia is preparing for different scenarios for the development of the situation, up to a decline in oil prices to 60 dollars per barrel by the end of 2015, predicting in this case a slowdown in Russia's GDP by 3,5 - 4%. However, we have no reason to panic. Americans also show calmness. In November, the US Department of Energy lowered its forecast for the average price of the Brent brand in 2015 by 21,57% to $ 83,42 per barrel. The report of the energy department states that in January the price of the specified mark will be 83 dollars, then it will decline, up to 81 dollars in May, and in the second half of 2015, oil will start to rise in price and by December its price will reach 87 dollars. Washington realizes that the price rally can not last a long time. Otherwise, shale deposits will lose their profitability.

In the confrontation between the United States and OPEC, Russia has the last word. The safety margin of Moscow lies not only in its foreign exchange reserves, but also in raw materials. In addition to the Arctic with its rich subsoil, Russia has the largest reserves of shale oil in the world, which are estimated by analysts from Bank of America Merrill Lynch at 75 billion barrels. The United States is in second place with 60 billion barrels. This is a trump card that can be used at any time. America will not be able to push Saudi Arabia and other countries of the cartel alone for a long time. Bank of America Merrill Lynch has already questioned the sustainability of shale production in the United States, noting that this is one of the most controversial issues on the global oil market. Meanwhile, Gazprom is gaining momentum. Director of Exploration and Development of Gazprom Neft's resource base A. Vashkevich states that the company “will increase funding for a joint project with the Anglo-Dutch concern Shell to develop shale oil (the Bazhenov formation field in Western Siberia - S.Ts..), if Shell will curtail funding due to EU sanctions on Russia. " Moscow accepts the challenge and enters a struggle that promises many trials and accomplishments.
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  1. northerner lech
    northerner lech 16 November 2014 06: 28
    +5
    And what can a simple people do all the same? To clean Kalash, sharpen a bayonet-knife and stock up with grub, or immediately dig a grave?
    1. nvv
      nvv 16 November 2014 06: 55
      +5
      Quote: northerner lech
      And what can a simple people do all the same? To clean Kalash, sharpen a bayonet-knife and stock up with grub, or immediately dig a grave?

      On November 3, 2014, the son of the head of the Presidential Administration, Sergey B. Ivanov, was killed in the UAE. In shallow water, for a very short time, in front of numerous witnesses and personal protection, A. Ivanov died, presumably not from suffocation, as a result of sea water entering the lungs, but from poisoning with potent poison. The doctors were powerless and a young man 37 years old died, than plunged his parents in grief, and the power block of the Russian elite subjected to the most severe test in the last 14 years. This death must have a reason, and a pretty good one. When they want to put pressure on the resistor, deprive him of their will, then in order to achieve their goal they kill children, it was with M. Gutseriev. When they clear their way, they eliminate their rivals. As we see, S. Ivanov was not a rival, but he actively intervened in the events taking place in Russia and interfered with the plans of those who started their own game. At the same time, the chain of events looked like preparation for a new alignment in the ruling elite of our country, where the Vatican and the Rothschilds went on the offensive. The danger that makes the world backstage act faster and faster is the social - democratic plans of the power block of SB Ivanov, implying the following points:
      Socially oriented multistructure economy with state regulation (what they are trying to build today in the DPR and LPR),
      Equality of all forms of ownership with a predominance of state ownership in payment terms,
      Civil and labor control at enterprises, institutions and various public institutions,
      Nationalization of strategic enterprises, large financial institutions, including the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, as well as subsoil use,
      Progressive taxation scale, protection of the poor, increasing social responsibility of the state,
      Protectionism in the state’s foreign policy, amendment of the Constitution, refusal to comply with international legal agreements that infringe on the sovereignty of our country,
      Creation of primary cells of self-government of citizens and their inclusion in the system of state power

      ALL ARTICLE HERE: http: //mayoripatiev.ru/1416043237 Who really wants to understand what is happening join the study. Jumpers, go to the gardens or join, you will not regret it.
      1. Sibom
        Sibom 16 November 2014 10: 32
        +4
        If it is true that he died (A. Ivanov), then he survived his VICTIM by nine years. In 2005, at the PEDESTRIAN CROSSING, he KILLED a 68-year-old woman to DEATH. There were NO investigations and trials!
    2. The comment was deleted.
    3. siberalt
      siberalt 16 November 2014 07: 22
      +1
      In any case, shale oil is not a competitor extracted in the usual way. Yes, and transportation through pipes will be cheaper. Saudis can tolerate until March-April, and there prices will again creep up. And let's not forget that oil production will increase in Latin America with the participation of Russia.
      1. WKS
        WKS 16 November 2014 10: 15
        0
        Washington realizes that a price rally cannot last a long time. Otherwise, shale deposits will lose their profitability.

        This circumstance is apparently the main motive of the current price fluctuations. And if so, then the prices will be low until the complete ruin of companies developing expensive oil resources, including the Arctic.
      2. Wheel
        Wheel 16 November 2014 16: 08
        0
        Quote: siberalt
        And let's not forget that oil production will increase in Latin America with the participation of Russia.

        They will produce more - the price will be lower.
        Everything is good in moderation.
        We all have strange views on oil policy: Russia produces as much oil as the Saudis, but Arabia must reduce production and regulate the price.
    4. Stinger
      Stinger 16 November 2014 09: 45
      +1
      Ordinary people, as always, stand in the position of "get a pretty penny through the bench"
    5. Giant thought
      Giant thought 16 November 2014 09: 57
      0
      It’s not yet evening, we’ll break through and have to endure, because the very existence of Russia by and large is at stake.
      1. Viktor Kudinov
        Viktor Kudinov 16 November 2014 15: 52
        0
        For some reason I don’t understand: why sell cheap oil, if we ourselves can consume it! Abroad, it is necessary to offer oil processing products, finished products. You can earn a lot more on this than on raw. This can overcome the crisis. what
      2. The comment was deleted.
      3. colorado
        colorado 16 November 2014 17: 50
        0
        what a giant granola
    6. alone
      alone 16 November 2014 22: 05
      0
      the first and second sooner or later leads to the fourth)))
  2. dimdimich71
    dimdimich71 16 November 2014 06: 35
    +3
    Obama's nightmare ....
  3. ya.seliwerstov2013
    ya.seliwerstov2013 16 November 2014 06: 57
    +2
    Moscow accepts the challenge and enters into a struggle that promises many trials and accomplishments.
    And what else can poor Moscow do. Just fight.
    1. nvv
      nvv 16 November 2014 07: 14
      +1
      Quote: ya.seliwerstov2013
      Moscow accepts the challenge and enters into a struggle that promises many trials and accomplishments.
      And what else can poor Moscow do. Just fight.

      With windmills? Read Ipatiev. You will know with whom.
  4. viktor52
    viktor52 16 November 2014 06: 58
    +7
    The common people don’t have to do anything. He was just as a beggar as he will be. All the money from the enterprises stolen from the state that we built and our parents have long passed into the ownership of officials and deputies, so take everything as it is.
  5. Drunya
    Drunya 16 November 2014 09: 14
    +1
    But what about a merchant like ISIS about him?
    I think they are the main "dull" - and cheaper they will buy EVERYTHING !!
    OIL BLOOD DOES NOT Smell !!!!
  6. sv68
    sv68 16 November 2014 09: 32
    +2
    and you didn’t have to hand over Libya and Iraq; now you can forget about stability in the region and affordable prices for a long time.
  7. BB14
    BB14 16 November 2014 10: 11
    +5
    Quote: nvv
    As we see, S. Ivanov was not a rival, but he actively intervened in the events taking place in Russia and interfered with the plans of those who started their own game. At the same time, the chain of events looked like preparation for a new alignment in the ruling elite of our country, where the Vatican and the Rothschilds went on the offensive. The danger that makes the world backstage act faster and faster is the social - democratic plans of the power block of SB Ivanov, implying the following points:
    Socially oriented multistructure economy with state regulation (what they are trying to build today in the DPR and LPR),
    Equality of all forms of ownership with a predominance of state ownership in payment terms,
    Civil and labor control at enterprises, institutions and various public institutions,
    Nationalization of strategic enterprises, large financial institutions, including the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, as well as subsoil use,
    Progressive taxation scale, protection of the poor, increasing social responsibility of the state,
    Protectionism in the state’s foreign policy, amendment of the Constitution, refusal to comply with international legal agreements that infringe on the sovereignty of our country,
    Creation of primary cells of self-government of citizens and their inclusion in the system of state power


    Enchanting nonsense! Directly the national defenders alone in our top ... now I’ll cry from such a concern.
    1. nvv
      nvv 16 November 2014 11: 25
      0
      Let's cry together. The main thing is to understand what is happening there.
      Quote: BB14
      ... will cry now from such a concern
      1. BB14
        BB14 16 November 2014 11: 32
        +3
        Mice in the hole are not given to understand what cats share on the roof. In any case, the mice are not shining anything good.
        1. nvv
          nvv 16 November 2014 12: 45
          0
          But this is you in vain. This thinking "everything is lost". WARNED-MEAN ARMED.
  8. saag
    saag 16 November 2014 12: 34
    +1
    Quote: BB14
    Mice in the hole are not given to understand what cats share on the roof.


    Cats on the roof share the territory on which they will catch mice :-)
    1. nvv
      nvv 16 November 2014 14: 16
      0
      Quote: saag
      Quote: BB14
      Mice in the hole are not given to understand what cats share on the roof.


      Cats on the roof share the territory on which they will catch mice :-)

      If you are not a cat, do not let it. This is humanly.
  9. saag
    saag 16 November 2014 17: 23
    +1
    Quote: nvv
    If you're not a cat, don't let it



    "... But about Sakstorp. One night, as soon as I fell asleep, the feline couple began
    in the yard is a concert. Jumping out of bed, I went to the window with a jug of water in
    hand. And at the same time he heard how the next window opened. Rang out
    two shots and the window closed. Everything happened so fast that describe
    impossible. It was a matter of a few seconds. A window opens - boom
    boom, - the revolver shoots twice, - the window closes. I don't know who he is
    was, but he didn’t even look out the window. He was sure. Do you understand? I am sure.
    The concert stopped, and in the morning the numb bodies of the violators of the silence were found. "(C)" The Indomitable White Man "J. London
  10. Nross
    Nross 17 November 2014 11: 30
    +1
    I believe this is the first big battle of shale oil with conventional in world markets. It will most likely end in a compromise: they will tighten the average price to 90 green and freeze the conflict for a couple of years ....
    But then, it is worth noting that the Americans are not fools. They will tighten the technological base, find an even more toxic, but cheaper reagent, and then the cost of a shale barrel will drop to 30. Then the hub will start ...