From 2025, PAK FA and F-35 will be the only alternatives in the global fighter market.

Two prototypes of the PAK FA on the eve of the first public flight performed at MAKS-2011. During the flight of fighters watched by Prime Minister Vladimir Putin.

Both fighters performed several aerobatics, including flying at extremely low altitude. The pilots did not perform complex elements, since the prototypes pass the flight test stage.

To date, two prototypes of the PAK FA are involved in the flight test program; another sample is used for static tests.

As stated by UAC President Mikhail Pogosyan, by the end of 2011, two more prototypes of the PAK FA will join the flight test program.

On the eve of the first large-scale public presentation of the PAK FA, a number of Russian and foreign media reported on an assessment of the global market needs for these fighters. In particular, referring to the UAC President Mikhail Pogosyan, the media reported that the need for T-50 fighters (PAK FA) is estimated at 600 units, including the Russian Air Force - 200 units, the Indian Air Force - 200 units. FGFA (created on the basis of the PAK FA), another 200 aircraft will be exported to other countries.

From 2025, PAK FA and F-35 will be the only alternatives in the global fighter market.According to TSAMTO, this assessment seems to be too “modest” for such a large-scale program.

The TSAMTO forecast of a year ago for promising supplies of the PAK FA was attended by 13 countries, including two countries from the North African region - Libya and Egypt.

Due to force majeure events in the Middle East and North Africa, which could not have been foreseen in advance, TSAMTO adjusted its forecast for PAK FA shipments. These two countries are excluded from the current forecast. However, depending on the development of the domestic political situation in these countries, TSAMTO does not exclude that at some stage they will again be included in the forecast with delivery in the longer term. In any case, both of these countries will remain in the sphere of Russia's interests as importers of fifth-generation multipurpose fighters.

Another event that was also impossible to predict in advance was the inclusion of the PAK FA fighter by the South Korean DAPA agency in a tender for the purchase of 60 fighter jets for the country's Air Force.

The Defense Procurement Programs Agency of the Ministry of Defense of the Republic of Korea (DAPA) intends to launch a tender for the purchase of low-profile fighter jets at the beginning of next year and select a supplier by October 2012. As part of the FX-3 project, South Korea intends to replace the outdated F-4E and F-5E / F aircraft in service.

According to DAPA estimates, the cost of the 60 acquisition of the unobtrusive fifth-generation fighter jets will be 8,29 trillion won (7,86 billion dollars). As expected, the winner of the tender will be announced in October next year.

Russia is included in the number of applicants with the PAK FA aircraft. The short list of applicants also includes Lockheed Martin with F-35 Lightning-2, Boeing with F-15SE Silent Needles and the Eurofighter consortium with EF-2000 Typhoon.

At the moment, TSAMTO assesses the chances of the PAK FA winning the South Korean tender as minimal and does not include the Republic of Korea in the list of possible importers of the PAK FA. Nevertheless, TSAMTO considers the fact of the inclusion of the PAK FA into the list of applicants as an extremely important event from the point of view of the actual start of the marketing program for the promotion of the PAK FA to the world market.

According to the forecasts of TSAMTO, within the framework of the production program, calculated for the period of the entire production cycle, that is, approximately until 2050-2055, no less than 1000 units will be manufactured. PAK FA. The expected order of the Russian Air Force will be from 200 to 250 machines.

Currently, participants in the PAK-FA program are Russia and India. India's order is projected at 250 units.

The possible importers of the PAK FA include Algeria (estimated purchasing period - 2025-2030), Argentina (2035-2040), Brazil (2030-2035), Venezuela (2027-2032), Vietnam (2030 -2035 biennium), Indonesia (2028-2032 biennium), Iran (in the event of a lifting of the arms embargo, 2035-2040 biennium), Kazakhstan (2025-2035 biennium), China (under certain conditions, 2025-2035 Malaysia), Malaysia (2035-2040), Syria (2025-2030).

In general, the volume of the possible order of these countries TSAMTO estimates in 274-388 machines.

The export geography of the PAK FA can be much wider than that presented above, in particular, at the expense of the CIS countries. It is also possible that a number of Western European countries will in the future become customers of the PAK FA, adapted to their requirements.

The forecast is based on the fact that in the period from 2025 of the year and onwards, the PAK FA and F-35 will become non-alternative products in the global market of modern multi-purpose fighters. It is possible that in a number of countries the competition between Russia and the USA will be China. The rest of the countries that have declared their intention to develop a fifth-generation fighter are unlikely to be able to achieve characteristics close to the Russian and American aircraft. This applies to both technology and lost time (for example, the development program of the fourth-generation European fighter Eurofighter took more than 20 years).

In the period before 2025, the absolute majority of countries in the world, which pay due attention to the development of combat aircraft, fully satisfy their needs in purchasing 4, 4 + and 4 ++ generation fighter aircraft, and they will be faced with the issue of purchasing fifth-generation aircraft to replace outdated fourth-generation first-generation aircraft. which were delivered in 1990's.

In this regard, the main competition after 2025 will unfold between the Russian PAK-FA and the American F-35 "Lightning-2".

The advantage of the F-35 is that it is before the Russian fighter enters the world market. This “handicap” ranges from 5 to 7 years. On the other hand, this advantage is leveled by the fact that many countries around the world, which have solid fighter aircraft fleets as part of their air force, will continue to actively buy generation fighters 2025 + and 4 ++ before the 4 year, and F-35 deliveries will be limited to the 2025 year only by countries that are members of this program. At the same time, it is far from the fact that all these countries will purchase F-35 in the future, or purchase them in the volumes that were originally declared. This is due both to the appreciation of the program, and a significant delay in its schedule.

The general contractor of the F-35 program is Lockheed Martin, which implements it jointly with Northrop Grumman and BAE Systems. The US partners in the F-35 program at the design and demonstration stage of the system are the 8 countries - the United Kingdom, the Netherlands, Italy, Turkey, Canada, Denmark, Norway and Australia. Singapore and Israel joined in as participants without risk sharing.

The obvious weakness of the F-35 program is that all other countries interested in purchasing F-35 aircraft will be able to acquire them only through the sales mechanism of foreign countries under the FMS (Foreign Military Sales) program, which does not provide for offset agreements or local attraction. industry, which is not very profitable for those countries that focus on the development of the national aviation industry.

The initial calculation was based on the fact that partner countries can buy 722 fighter: Australia - to 100, Canada - 60, Denmark - 48, Italy - 131, Netherlands - 85, Norway - 48, Turkey - 100 and the United Kingdom - 150 (90 for Air Force and 60 for the Navy). The needs of two non-partnering partners, Singapore and Israel, were identified in 100 and 75 units. respectively. That is just 897 units, and taking into account the order of the Air Force, Navy and USMC - 3340 units.

Taking into account possible sales of F-35 to other customers, by 2045-2050. year the total number of aircraft produced was predicted in the amount of 4500 units. However, already now, in connection with the rise in prices, significant adjustments have been made to the smaller side, primarily from the United States.

Among potential customers who are not participants of the F-35 program, Spain should be noted, which expressed its intention to purchase F-35B.

The F-35 fighter is considered as a potential candidate for winning the tenders of the Japanese Air Force (up to 100 units) and South Korea (60 units).

At the moment, this is the entire list of the “nearest” possible customers of F-35, although Lockheed Martin is in talks with several other countries, including in the Asian and Middle Eastern regions.

Taking into account the problems that may arise in a number of potential customers of the F-35 fighter aircraft, Boeing has developed a prototype of the Silent Needle F-15SE fighter, which uses technologies of the fifth generation aircraft, including reducing radar visibility, conformal layout weapons systems, digital avionics, as well as V-shaped tail.

Boeing estimates the potential market for the F-15SE aircraft in 190 machines. The first aircraft can be delivered to foreign customers in 2012 year.

The perspective version is intended primarily for the international market. Boeing intends to offer the F-15SE to the air forces of Japan, South Korea, Singapore, Israel and Saudi Arabia, which currently operate F-15 aircraft. Boeing also hopes that interest in purchasing the new F-15SE will be expressed by the Air Forces of those countries that planned to acquire the fifth generation F-35 Fighter “Lightning-2”, but due to the significant increase in its value, they cannot afford to purchase it.

At the same time, the outlook for F-15SE is limited in time. It can compete with other manufacturers only for the transition period, that is, until 2025, when most countries fully satisfy their needs for fourth-generation fighter jets.

For this transitional period, the Sukhoi company, according to the developed long-term strategy, makes the main stake in the promotion of the Su-35 fighter.

Su-35 is a deeply modernized super-maneuverable multi-functional 4 ++ fighter. It uses the technology of the fifth generation, providing superiority over fighters of a similar class.

While maintaining the aerodynamic appearance typical of the Su-27 / 30 family of aircraft, the Su-35 fighter is a brand new machine. In particular, it has reduced radar visibility, a new avionics complex based on an information management system, a new airborne radar with a phased antenna array with an increased number of simultaneously followed and fired targets with a large detection range.

Su-35 has an 117С engine with thrust vector control. This engine was created as a result of a deep modernization of the AL-31F and has a thrust of 14,5 tons, which exceeds the performance of the base engine by 2 tons. The 117 engine is a prototype of the fifth generation engine.

With the Su-35, Sukhoi binds its immediate future on the world fighter market. This machine should take place between the Su-30MK multifunctional fighter and the advanced 5 generation aircraft.

Su-35 aircraft will allow Sukhoi to remain competitive until the 5 generation fighter is entering the market. The bulk of Su-35 export shipments will be in the 2012-2022 period.

In terms of market promotion, it’s also important that Su-35 can be adapted to weapon western production.

Deliveries of Su-35 for export are planned to the countries of Southeast Asia, Africa, the Middle East and South America. Among the possible customers of the Su-35 are considered such countries as Libya, Venezuela, Brazil, Algeria, Syria, Egypt and, possibly, China. The Russian Air Force, in turn, plans to form the 2-3 regiment of Su-35 fighters. The total production program of the Su-35 is estimated at 200 machines, including about 140 units. - for export.

Simultaneously with the completion of deliveries of the Su-35, the PAK FA will begin to arrive on the market (approximately from the 2020 year).

The stated specifications of the PAK FA correspond to the most advanced to date, American fighter F-22, whose task is to ensure air superiority.

The low profile of the aircraft will provide its profile. In addition, the use of special coatings and materials that absorb and do not reflect radar signals, will make the aircraft almost invisible to enemy radar.

Aircraft F-16C / E, F-15C / E and F / A-18A-F will not be able to adequately counter the PAK FA. As for the F-35, it is already experiencing difficulties in countering the Su-35 with its low ESR. With a further planned reduction on the PAK FA, the F-35 fighter will experience even greater problems.

The production program for the F-35 will end tentatively by 2045-2050, and the PAK FA by 2055. From this moment until the end of the XXI century, the United States and Russia will focus on servicing the delivered aircraft. At the same time, during this period, the transition to the sixth generation multifunctional fighter will begin, which will already be unmanned.

A full transition to these systems is inevitable, but in reality it will begin no earlier than the 2050s. and will affect only the leading world powers. The gradual transition to unmanned aircraft in the second half of the 21st century will be due both to technical improvement of combat aviation complexes and purely physiological limitations on the capabilities of pilots to control fighters. Full replacement of manned aircraft for UAVs in the leading countries of the world is expected around the end of the XXI century, that is, by the time of the write-off of the last manned fifth-generation fighter planes delivered in 2050-2055.
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