Great war
From this article, I do not just "tie" with the Ukrainian topic in this blog, but as far as possible I distance myself from it as from extremely topical, hot, and therefore very distracting from much more serious problems today. Fortunately, the situation is somewhat discharged and allows. "The Great War" is the main article in the series of articles "The Great War, Real Confrontation?" aimed at identifying and identifying some factors that are extremely important for understanding the events taking place in Ukraine as well. Factors - controllers, for some reason insufficiently appreciated or completely invisible behind the rapid pace of events, often too emotionally loaded, which sometimes causes serious errors in their assessment.
Just want to warn readers - this is not a situational analysis! And the analysis of precisely the governing factors, the engines of all visible actions, is both this article and those that follow in the cycle. Therefore, there is no need to wait for statements like: today is good - hurray we won ... bad - everything is gone. That is, all that is most demanded by the public!
Well, if the interest has not disappeared - go ahead!
Of course, a war in which people die, and even more so a war on the threshold of one's own home, is an extremely important topic. But, we must understand that in this world, there is nothing meaningless and groundless! And this means that if there is a war, then for it, firstly, there are all the conditions, and secondly, someone needs it. And in our time, it is a mistake to believe that the roots of problems that feed this soil in a confluence of circumstances! If only because the global society has already accumulated quite a lot of experience to assess and understand such mechanisms, as well as created an extremely serious scientific potential for organizing such work, sufficient to exclude the factors of "stupidity" and randomness from the analysis of such global trends. ...
So, already in the first article of the series, I will outline two very important factors, and so that as you read, no questions arise - "why is he?" to begin with, I will give, as an example, several events that are stunningly significant for understanding the processes taking place in the world, which happened literally one after another, not so long ago. The first is a composite one, expressed by the very significant successes of Russian foreign policy in Latin America and on the BRICS. Second, a civilian passenger airliner was shot down in the sky over Donbass. Third, the militia of the southeast began to actively pressurize immediately after the crash of the liner, at least with the last bit of strength, but in all positions. The operation of the troops of the Ukrainian junta reached an unprecedented scale and brutality. Fourth - a systematic increase in sanctions pressure on Russia at the suggestion of the United States! Fifth, a gradual decrease in the degree of perception of the "Boeing" theme, in parallel with the almost imperceptible change from the smoothness of the rhetoric of the Ukrainian information asset to a more loyal to reality, against the background of a sharply falling potential of the Ukrainian armed forces and the victories of the Donbass militia. Sixth, and most important (!) - in the Donbass, shackled by a truce, not very obvious processes of clarifying the relationship between the forces characterized by only one significant obvious difference - adherence to revolutionary or conservative rhetoric are underway !!
Let me note that this is just a chain of events that slightly reveals the relationship between movements of different levels of globality and their common logic. And in fact, these events are so emotionally loaded that the connection between them, although extremely obvious, rather distracts from the correct interpretation of the actions of the governing forces. But, let me remind you - this is not the topic of the article, but only an example that will help the author to guide the reader to the right thought. Yes, Ukraine is in this cycle, and this is worth remembering - just an episode, an example!
Probably it is not worth reminding once again what is already clear - there is no separate war somewhere in Ukraine! There is a global war, a war not even between states for world domination, but a war of systems. In which, on one side there is Russia with allies, including geographically unrelated ones, on the other - the United States with the same. And just one of the fronts of this war is, too often seen as a separate event, the battle for Novorossiya! And here I would like to once and for all dot the "and" firmly identify the etymology of this problem, and involve my friends in discussing it from the standpoint of existing realities, and not from the generally accepted, emotional point of view. Although, to be honest, it is almost impossible to restrain emotions at times, especially when it comes to the lives of people, many people, Russian people, the suffering and death of children, women and the elderly ...
But we must try!
So, what is the Novorossiysk front, the hottest one, on which, in connection with the latest events, the most significant clear threats to Russia are brewing, and, paradoxically, the prospects for the most significant of the obvious victories are emerging? The first thing that is important to understand here is that this is not the front on which Russia is waging a war for the Russian world and the future of its citizens, of which they sometimes try to convince us and very successfully, it should be noted. This is a front artificially created at our side with the help of a whole series of measures of influence on the masses and provocations, as an effective mechanism for putting pressure on Russia in the most painful way, ranging from the destabilization of the domestic political and economic situation, and up to the complete discrediting of Russian positions in the world, and even before being drawn into a full-scale war. And I must say that everything here was so prepared, so thoughtfully multi-pass and filigree, and most importantly - very well in advance that, alas, Russia has practically no success on this front! And I affirm this in spite of the patriotic upsurge that Ukrainian themes evoke in our society, especially in the light of recent events! Since any direct (!) Actions that can be taken by Russia here, so far and further, almost without exception, even with the best intentions motivated, in the end will only lead to a worsening of the situation. This is a kind of zugzwang, which is logical to assume, because since Russia has not created this front of struggle in its underbelly, then victories on it with any results will not bring it any real success except for the return of positions lost on it, and even then - at what cost? .. And it is here that the answer to the question becomes obvious - why does Russia practically not fight on it ?!
And it’s not at war, it’s true. It really is! It doesn't seem like it! And this is not a cunning political maneuver when Putin declares that he does not stimulate the processes taking place there and is as far away as possible from direct contacts with the forces of popular resistance. This is exactly what should be understood without any guesswork, paraphrasing and interpretations. Since Vladimir Putin is the president of Russia! And it is Russia, its integrity, sovereignty and well-being, peace and safety of its citizens, in the first place - with no alternative, should be the object of his concern!
But, of course, Russia, since they are already at war here, cannot but offer resistance, and with all available indirect actions it does it. This is what is usually perceived by all interested observers as active participation. Active, but somehow ineffective and too cautious, occasionally causing waves of criticism against the Russian president from the patriotic public, and Russia's "partners", even prompted to come up with and launch a new and extremely funny term "hybrid war". But everyone who wants to understand the logic of events must first realize that this is not what the battle is about and where victories are especially important! All the main confrontation takes place in completely different spheres, and in them our offensive is developing, and only victory there can alleviate the situation here in this painful point of Russia, which is like a wound on the body, every time as soon as another success occurs on the main front, begin to poke with redoubled fury, realizing what pain they cause! That is precisely the victories on those other fronts, and sometimes it happens that concessions ... actually lead to some shifts on the Ukrainian question, which are sometimes mistakenly perceived as victories in it.
And in the very first article, it will be relevant to answer the question that, without an idea of the global picture, is capable of confusing anyone - "does Russia have real allies in this war?" And at the same time to illuminate this very picture a little.
The most common argument that there are none, especially in Europe, is based on the understanding that Europe is economically tied to the United States and its Fed is too strong. And who in such a situation will turn out to be "the very woodpecker" who will put an end to profits from such a partnership? .. But I must say that there is one factor of a much more global plan that can cross out motivation with profit, it is a matter of survival! Let me explain - the whole essence of the hottest confrontations in the world today, in the problems of the modern economic system based on the US dollar. Any economist dealing with issues of this magnitude, analyzing at the system level, will say that she is fundamentally sick and there are no simple recipes for her cure! What is needed is a fundamental change - a change in the foundations! And the only guaranteed effective rescue operation is the smooth abandonment of the dollar, which has created all the wealth existing in the world, and is capable of destroying them in the blink of an eye today. And so, if for the United States this is certain death, since it destroys the basis of the country's well-being "which, in fact, is the number one goal for Russia, which has no other opportunity to protect itself in the current situation with an unequal confrontation according to the rules of the opponent and on his board," then for all the rest, under certain conditions, it becomes the only chance to save at least something by establishing parallel trading opportunities. But the biggest danger in this is that it is the progress of the process of abandoning the dollar that brings it closer and closer to its collapse, and the logical collapse of the US economy as a result of this, will destroy the entire system of trade that exists today, in which they play a very important, even key role. And of course, in such a situation, the world is divided into two camps: those who understand the inevitability and prepare, and those who are afraid of drastic changes and prefer to prolong their prosperity longer. But, as the process of refusal has already been launched and is gaining momentum, those who would like to wait out form an increasingly clear understanding that they will not be able to sit out, and they must either be actively involved in the process, or resist it, literally fighting for their peace of mind, not sparing anything, since the cost of defeat in this battle is simply exorbitant! Therefore, the world, even in its European part, today consists of two camps, and not one united by mutually beneficial trade. And by the way, it is in this confrontation that allies and opponents divide in a completely different way, as is traditionally believed! And many friends, in fact, are not friends at all !! But more on that in subsequent articles.
In general, judging by the declared positions of Russia’s real allies in this confrontation, it is simply impossible, then by real actions of one nature or another, it is extremely difficult! For example: in Europe today, supporters of dismantling this structure, which did not meet many expectations, are already strong enough and are only gaining weight in the light of everything that is happening, who consider the European Union a stillborn child. So, these forces, in fact, being more likely allies of Russia on a basic basis, since they seek to get rid of the harmful influence of the United States, the creation of the EU and who actually initiated and controlled its activities, are quite interested in forcing anti-Russian hysteria that justifies tough sanctions, as well as in direct lobbying of these , such unproductive measures! Is it a paradox?)) And the logic here is very simple, since it is precisely the sanctions that weaken the economies of the EU's "locomotives" especially effectively, and the retaliatory measures on the part of Russia are capable of not only damaging, but even simply destroying the economies of some of its most troubled members, like all candidates for membership, by the way, which we are seeing today. That, taking into account the sanctions burden already taken on by the leaders, in combination with the growing whining of losers, can simply fundamentally discredit the idea of a union, and upon reaching a certain point, make its preservation banal - impossible under any external motivations. Well, what's not a reason ?? I think it will be important to note here that these aspirations of the US opponents in Europe, up to a certain point, even coincide with the aspirations of the US itself, balancing, literally on the brink of a foul, in its attempts to distance the economies of Russia and Europe as much as possible.
By the way, there are also some tendencies in Europe, which, as you can see, are somewhat incorrectly assessed by pro-Russian activists. For example, in the light of the previous example, the tendencies for the fragmentation of the EU states look completely different! When, so painful for Russia, as for the obvious target of forces inclined to destroy large sovereignties, the topic acquires relevance somewhere out there, then this cannot but cause some gloating! Say - well, here you are, eat it! But! .. All this is wonderful, if you lose sight of the fact that such processes are taking place not just anywhere, anyhow, but within the framework of a large territorial-economic association! And the main condition for them, for the processes, is precisely the preservation of this association. And in its absence, such separatist sentiments completely lose ground, since as a result they will only lead to the emergence of new incapacitated subjects with temporary sovereignty, since in such cases sovereignty is more than a conditional concept! That is why membership in the EU is also a paramount task for them after gaining independence. Well, what then can be motivated by the forces that initiate such processes from outside, quickly gaining the status of a precedent? Well, in my opinion, the answer is obvious enough! - Since the task of preserving a large supranational association, provided that there are self-sufficient entities capable of independently existing within its framework, is somewhat difficult, it is precisely this task that may well be called upon to facilitate this task - the procedure of splitting up sovereignties !! So, personally, I am inclined to assess such processes as the result of the activities of forces striving to preserve the EU in its present form, that is, as incompetent as possible, and as a result controlled by the United States. It’s interesting - who will be the most opposed to the dissolution of the EU - small and incompetent members or large, self-sufficient economies?)) But this was just a deviation from the topic!
So, it is the global economic system that is apparently the main front in this big war, a war not for the future of Russia only, but for the future of the whole world. And this is no exaggeration! And now a battle is going on specifically for Europe - for a serious, motivated ally on this very front.
Of course, Russia, if you approach meticulously, did not create this front either, in the sense that it did not initiate, but simply joined the active actions there, since it was initially directed towards the interesting patriotic forces of our country. Its first outlines, together with the motivation of the opponents, apparently began to appear even when Russia, after the collapse of the USSR, had not yet come to its senses and rather represented itself as a victim, which future opponents were planning to divide among themselves. But a series of events in the late nineties made adjustments to the plans of the "civilized world". - Russia has declared the right to its own sovereignty! That at first, I must say, even somewhat consolidated the West, out of old memory of the fear of the Soviet Union. As a result, the economic front, which had already begun to emerge, lost its shape somewhat. However, thanks to the accumulated problems of the dollar system, for Russia it turned out to be the most appropriate tool for countering the States, which have too much experience and potential in the destruction of statehood by non-military or combined methods, which Russia, which did not form elites relevant in the new conditions of existence, was and still has to resist. there is (!!!) impermissibly difficult. Well, now it is the successes of our country on this front that make the opponents, who are practically unable to resist there, desperately increase pressure on other fronts. And each victory of Russia with the already acquired allies on it automatically adds new allies to it, moreover, each victory or defeat on the Ukrainian front, only responds to the weakening of Russia's positions, due to the specifics of the confrontation there and the effectiveness of information countermeasures from the United States!
And it is precisely on the understanding of all this that I base the assumption that Russia has quite strong allies in Europe ... and not only. And judging by the latest events, their list is only growing as the foresight of the end of the dollar world becomes clearer. And of course, we can assume that Europe is full of stubborn rams ready to crash into a cake for ideological reasons, or for the sake of momentary peace and profit. But, really ... the future belongs to reason, - to reason!
The entire cycle of articles "Great War, Real Confrontation?" Where, in addition to especially interesting aspects of this war itself, additional, visible motivations of the forces that shape geopolitical trends in a world so heterogeneous will be considered! ..
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