To understand a person’s competence, his level of development, it is often enough just to listen to him. Listen to what he says, as argued. If this person is in charge of a structure on which the future of the country largely depends, according to his words, one can quite clearly predict the future.
I propose to analyze the interview of the head of the National Bank of Ukraine, who is directly responsible for the situation with the national currency rate, the program "TSN Tizhden" from 8 November.
“Our country will no longer live in a fixed rate. Unfortunately, she lived in a fixed course all her life, and therefore we saw this course abruptly.
You remember when the hryvnia entered into circulation, according to which course it was. We had 1,7, then we had a 5 course, then we had a 8 course, then we already had a 12 course. Unfortunately, this does not lead our country to economic growth or to the stability of the financial system. ”
The advantage of a fixed exchange rate is monetary stability: the national currency has long been kept at the same level, and if exchange fluctuations occur, they are insignificant and not “protracted”.
Stability of the course is a fundamental prerequisite for the stability of economic processes, whether it is the implementation of the budget or transactions between enterprises and individuals. There is nothing to say about how stable the national currency exchange rate affects the stability of the life of “little Ukrainians”.
Gontareva claims that the hryvnia fell almost “permanently”, she mixed in a heap and a jump to 5 hryvnia for a dollar and a jump from 5 to 8 hryvnia. However, we will not take her word for it and strains her memory.
The hryvnia actually “jumped” in 1998 year. What was the reason for this? Probably the financial and economic crisis, though, and not a fixed rate. Or does Gontareva not know what happened in 1998 in Russia, and what has spread to our country?
"Jump" 2009 of the year? Was it due to a fixed rate, or because of the same financial and economic crisis? It seems that the head of the NBU is not at all oriented in the causal connection of events.
Over the years 17,5 since the introduction of the hryvnia in 1996 and up to March 2014, the national currency exchange rate has increased 4,5 times. From March 2014 to November 2014, the hryvnia collapsed TWO times. All because of the same fixed rate, probably?
For several months, the justification for the growth of the dollar, in addition to the war, was that, allegedly, Yanukovich and Co. artificially restrained the course. That would not hold back, so everything would be fine. That is, they impose on the people the absurd idea that a stable and low rate is bad.
And the people, despite the utter absurdity of this statement, believe. He carries on, obediently repeats: “they have restrained, and if they had not restrained, then ...” Then the salaries would turn into zilch. About this, few of those repeating nonsense thinks.
It's like a pig from a famous fable, undermining an oak and not knowing where acorns come from.
For unknown reasons, Ms. Gontareva cannot tell which of the developed countries, except for the USA, refused to influence the national currency rate and what amazing success this led to. Perhaps the examples do not know.
But there are examples of China and Japan, which made economic breakthroughs precisely because of the stability of the yuan and yen rates.
“When in early September the situation began to develop disastrously and the enemy began to destroy our infrastructure, we decided to change the situation. We tried to set the course and look for a new equilibrium situation for him. ”
This story would be perfect for residents of the taiga hinterland, for example, not receiving the press and do not have access to the Internet.
In September, the NBU, led by Gontareva, moved precisely to the fixed rate policy, which was located in the 12,95 UAH / USD area. At this rate, the currency was sold to "elected" banks at closed auctions. It was to keep the rate quotas were introduced for the purchase of currency in one hand per day.
It’s strange, why didn’t the head of the National Bank say that a fixed rate was bad? Yes, simple is simple - then the elections were on the nose. Poroshenko’s “Petro Poroshenko’s bloc”, namely Poroshenko, put Gontarev in the chair of the NBU, it was necessary to demonstrate stability. As far as the lady coped with the task, the shameful 20% of Poroshenko’s political forces in the elections eloquently testify.
“In the current state of the market, without the fact that NAK“ Naftogaz ”goes there, the rate should be at the level of 12,5-13 (UAH per dollar - Auth.). He generally should not rise higher. ”
This is amazing. That is, the rate "should not" rise, but has grown to 16 hryvnia (and the growth will not stop, of course). But what about the course formed by the market? After all, the market doesn’t care about the opinion of some Gontareva, but here it contradicts itself, and it contradicts well.
“Even in the ATO zone, industry began to work with us. That is, our exporters are already starting to work even in this area. These include the Enakievo Metallurgical Plant, and Donetskstal, and the Alchevsk Metallurgical Plant. All this tells us that we will have currency earnings. Moreover, all of our largest steel plants have already increased their products today. ”
The phrase about exporters with reference to Yenakiyevo Iron and Steel, which with grief in half resumed work in late October, “Donetskstal”, which blew out one blast furnace in early October and Alchevsk Metallurgical, which DOES NOT WORK until now, issues a specialist in the National Bank’s head who receives accurate information from the regions.
Currency revenue? Oh yeah.
Plants operating in the territory of the self-proclaimed republics are unlikely to transfer money to the budget of Ukraine.
Many exporters prefer to trade foreign exchange earnings abroad. Today, more than half of such operations take place outside Ukraine. In many ways, this is the “merit” of Gontareva and her predecessor Kubiva, who finally undermined the “innovations” in their trust in the NBU.
There are a number of schemes in which either all currency earnings, or its colossal part, are not returned to the country, but are deposited in the accounts of foreign banks.
If the head of the NBU is “not in the know” of these “nuances”, this also indicates its competence.
“What we will do first, and there is already such a bill in parliament. Indeed, so that we have no more cash payments, for example, than a thousand euros ... We don’t even understand that in Europe you cannot pay more than a thousand euros in cash. ”
Uh ... what? In Belgium, the limit is 3 thousand euros, in Spain 2,5 thousand euros, in France and Belgium - 3 thousand euros, in Slovakia - 5 thousand euros, in Bulgaria –5 thousand euros.
In Austria, Slovenia, Iceland, Lithuania, Cyprus, Germany, restrictions are simply NO.
Apparently, Gontareva means by "Europe" exclusively Italy and Greece, where the limit is from 1 to 1,5 thousand euros.
Competence and once again competence, as they say.
“The second question, which we are already preparing when the new Glad will meet, is about the fact that deposits for a period are deposits for a period.”
This is an extremely interesting statement, given that changes to the Civil Code (part 2 of the 1060 article), which should have been made a long time ago, as they did in 2008-2009 with the onset of the crisis, would cut down the bitches on which “close »NBU banks.
Refinancing of these banks occurs for one reason - “customers are leaving, taking deposits”. Surely, for this reason, changes to the Code have not yet been made. Yes, and too late. Now such changes will further undermine the faith of the population in the banking system.
Well, let's say, innovate. There was a panic. People can not get back money, rapidly depreciating every day, pickets from the bank, going to court. In this scenario, legal entities will definitely begin to withdraw funds to other banks.
But this is a real problem, because the next step is bankruptcy. Of course, confidence in the banking system will be undermined for years.
What course will be budgeted for next year?
“In fact, I would not have laid a course other than 12,95”
It’s not just “unreasonably optimistic,” it’s stupid. Therefore, any person reading this material can walk to the nearest exchange office ...
They say that the new Ukrainian patriotism is “not to notice the bad” and “talk about the good”. I imagine that it is necessary to talk about the bad, because it is the only way to predict the worst offensive. What conclusion about the future of the hryvnia did you make from this interview? ...
A. Shary: On the competence of the head of the National Bank
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