Military Review

A. Shary: On the competence of the head of the National Bank

35
To understand a person’s competence, his level of development, it is often enough just to listen to him. Listen to what he says, as argued. If this person is in charge of a structure on which the future of the country largely depends, according to his words, one can quite clearly predict the future.

I propose to analyze the interview of the head of the National Bank of Ukraine, who is directly responsible for the situation with the national currency rate, the program "TSN Tizhden" from 8 November.

“Our country will no longer live in a fixed rate. Unfortunately, she lived in a fixed course all her life, and therefore we saw this course abruptly.

You remember when the hryvnia entered into circulation, according to which course it was. We had 1,7, then we had a 5 course, then we had a 8 course, then we already had a 12 course. Unfortunately, this does not lead our country to economic growth or to the stability of the financial system. ”

The advantage of a fixed exchange rate is monetary stability: the national currency has long been kept at the same level, and if exchange fluctuations occur, they are insignificant and not “protracted”.

Stability of the course is a fundamental prerequisite for the stability of economic processes, whether it is the implementation of the budget or transactions between enterprises and individuals. There is nothing to say about how stable the national currency exchange rate affects the stability of the life of “little Ukrainians”.

Gontareva claims that the hryvnia fell almost “permanently”, she mixed in a heap and a jump to 5 hryvnia for a dollar and a jump from 5 to 8 hryvnia. However, we will not take her word for it and strains her memory.

The hryvnia actually “jumped” in 1998 year. What was the reason for this? Probably the financial and economic crisis, though, and not a fixed rate. Or does Gontareva not know what happened in 1998 in Russia, and what has spread to our country?

"Jump" 2009 of the year? Was it due to a fixed rate, or because of the same financial and economic crisis? It seems that the head of the NBU is not at all oriented in the causal connection of events.

Over the years 17,5 since the introduction of the hryvnia in 1996 and up to March 2014, the national currency exchange rate has increased 4,5 times. From March 2014 to November 2014, the hryvnia collapsed TWO times. All because of the same fixed rate, probably?

For several months, the justification for the growth of the dollar, in addition to the war, was that, allegedly, Yanukovich and Co. artificially restrained the course. That would not hold back, so everything would be fine. That is, they impose on the people the absurd idea that a stable and low rate is bad.

And the people, despite the utter absurdity of this statement, believe. He carries on, obediently repeats: “they have restrained, and if they had not restrained, then ...” Then the salaries would turn into zilch. About this, few of those repeating nonsense thinks.

It's like a pig from a famous fable, undermining an oak and not knowing where acorns come from.

For unknown reasons, Ms. Gontareva cannot tell which of the developed countries, except for the USA, refused to influence the national currency rate and what amazing success this led to. Perhaps the examples do not know.

But there are examples of China and Japan, which made economic breakthroughs precisely because of the stability of the yuan and yen rates.

“When in early September the situation began to develop disastrously and the enemy began to destroy our infrastructure, we decided to change the situation. We tried to set the course and look for a new equilibrium situation for him. ”

This story would be perfect for residents of the taiga hinterland, for example, not receiving the press and do not have access to the Internet.

In September, the NBU, led by Gontareva, moved precisely to the fixed rate policy, which was located in the 12,95 UAH / USD area. At this rate, the currency was sold to "elected" banks at closed auctions. It was to keep the rate quotas were introduced for the purchase of currency in one hand per day.

It’s strange, why didn’t the head of the National Bank say that a fixed rate was bad? Yes, simple is simple - then the elections were on the nose. Poroshenko’s “Petro Poroshenko’s bloc”, namely Poroshenko, put Gontarev in the chair of the NBU, it was necessary to demonstrate stability. As far as the lady coped with the task, the shameful 20% of Poroshenko’s political forces in the elections eloquently testify.

“In the current state of the market, without the fact that NAK“ Naftogaz ”goes there, the rate should be at the level of 12,5-13 (UAH per dollar - Auth.). He generally should not rise higher. ”

This is amazing. That is, the rate "should not" rise, but has grown to 16 hryvnia (and the growth will not stop, of course). But what about the course formed by the market? After all, the market doesn’t care about the opinion of some Gontareva, but here it contradicts itself, and it contradicts well.

“Even in the ATO zone, industry began to work with us. That is, our exporters are already starting to work even in this area. These include the Enakievo Metallurgical Plant, and Donetskstal, and the Alchevsk Metallurgical Plant. All this tells us that we will have currency earnings. Moreover, all of our largest steel plants have already increased their products today. ”

The phrase about exporters with reference to Yenakiyevo Iron and Steel, which with grief in half resumed work in late October, “Donetskstal”, which blew out one blast furnace in early October and Alchevsk Metallurgical, which DOES NOT WORK until now, issues a specialist in the National Bank’s head who receives accurate information from the regions.

Currency revenue? Oh yeah.

Plants operating in the territory of the self-proclaimed republics are unlikely to transfer money to the budget of Ukraine.
Many exporters prefer to trade foreign exchange earnings abroad. Today, more than half of such operations take place outside Ukraine. In many ways, this is the “merit” of Gontareva and her predecessor Kubiva, who finally undermined the “innovations” in their trust in the NBU.
There are a number of schemes in which either all currency earnings, or its colossal part, are not returned to the country, but are deposited in the accounts of foreign banks.
If the head of the NBU is “not in the know” of these “nuances”, this also indicates its competence.

“What we will do first, and there is already such a bill in parliament. Indeed, so that we have no more cash payments, for example, than a thousand euros ... We don’t even understand that in Europe you cannot pay more than a thousand euros in cash. ”

Uh ... what? In Belgium, the limit is 3 thousand euros, in Spain 2,5 thousand euros, in France and Belgium - 3 thousand euros, in Slovakia - 5 thousand euros, in Bulgaria –5 thousand euros.

In Austria, Slovenia, Iceland, Lithuania, Cyprus, Germany, restrictions are simply NO.

Apparently, Gontareva means by "Europe" exclusively Italy and Greece, where the limit is from 1 to 1,5 thousand euros.

Competence and once again competence, as they say.

“The second question, which we are already preparing when the new Glad will meet, is about the fact that deposits for a period are deposits for a period.”

This is an extremely interesting statement, given that changes to the Civil Code (part 2 of the 1060 article), which should have been made a long time ago, as they did in 2008-2009 with the onset of the crisis, would cut down the bitches on which “close »NBU banks.

Refinancing of these banks occurs for one reason - “customers are leaving, taking deposits”. Surely, for this reason, changes to the Code have not yet been made. Yes, and too late. Now such changes will further undermine the faith of the population in the banking system.

Well, let's say, innovate. There was a panic. People can not get back money, rapidly depreciating every day, pickets from the bank, going to court. In this scenario, legal entities will definitely begin to withdraw funds to other banks.

But this is a real problem, because the next step is bankruptcy. Of course, confidence in the banking system will be undermined for years.

What course will be budgeted for next year?

“In fact, I would not have laid a course other than 12,95”

It’s not just “unreasonably optimistic,” it’s stupid. Therefore, any person reading this material can walk to the nearest exchange office ...

They say that the new Ukrainian patriotism is “not to notice the bad” and “talk about the good”. I imagine that it is necessary to talk about the bad, because it is the only way to predict the worst offensive. What conclusion about the future of the hryvnia did you make from this interview? ...
Author:
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http://sharij.net/5555
35 comments
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  1. rotmistr60
    rotmistr60 13 November 2014 14: 14
    +11
    They say that the new Ukrainian patriotism is "not to notice the bad" and "talk about the good."

    It is not possible not to notice, and there is nothing to talk about.
    1. Giant thought
      Giant thought 13 November 2014 14: 20
      +5
      As in all matters, the highest structures should be led by specialists of the highest level, and not by kinship, nepotism, and obscurity, as is often the case in Russia.
      1. Blondy
        Blondy 14 November 2014 06: 50
        0
        As a blonde, I’m not much interested in the head of the Ukrainian bank, I’m much more interested in something about the Russian head, so that he would have a good hiccup with such a ruble.
    2. The comment was deleted.
    3. The comment was deleted.
    4. APES
      APES 13 November 2014 15: 34
      +5
      didn’t even read and
      analyze the interview with the head of the National Bank of Ukraine

      it is up to the special doctors to analyze the words, phrases, images and dreams of the Ukrainian leadership ....
    5. Denis fj
      Denis fj 13 November 2014 19: 15
      +4
      As of November 1, 2014, the volume of international reserves of Ukraine is 12,587 billion dollars. After the start of the new reporting period, Gazprom received $ 1,45 billion from Ukrainian gold reserves, and their current volume is 11,137 billion (not counting the 5-10 million that the NBU spends on an interbank daily). Of the remaining 11,137 billion reserves, approximately 9,9 billion are car loans from the NBU, its own debt obligations (which no one wants to buy even at crazy 16,5% per annum in foreign currency), that is, a dummy and a fiction. The real volume of the remaining gold and currency reserves of Ukraine is about $ 1,2 billion. This is not enough to pay an advance payment on gas.
      Only 1,2 billion dollars, which should, according to the monetarist financial system, provide about 290 billion hryvnia. Divide one into the other and you will get a realistic hryvnia to dollar exchange rate. Experts vowed that there was no reason to increase the exchange rate to 30 hryvnia per dollar. Now let them pray that he at least lingers at this mark, because the realistic rate is already 1 to 200
  2. Magic archer
    Magic archer 13 November 2014 14: 21
    +20
    I have been following Shariy for a long time. A very smart and witty journalist with sharp humor. Somehow I argued with one Ukrainian friend. Long. Then I cited Shariy as an example of an independent journalist. Well, in response, of course, "the Kremlin agent and other nonsense"! We agreed that he would watch three videos. I looked, compared and just at that moment I learned about the events in Ilovaisk from my friend who got into the cauldron! Opinion with a creak but changed! Thank you, Sharia !!! One of the few who fights and he succeeds good
  3. nicollider
    nicollider 13 November 2014 14: 21
    -14
    Shary is a creature of Kolomoisky?
    1. svp67
      svp67 13 November 2014 14: 23
      +5
      Quote: nicollider
      Shary is a creature of Kolomoisky?
      Shary, this is Shary ... and honestly, I did not notice his special affection for Ben.
    2. Nevsky_ZU
      Nevsky_ZU 13 November 2014 14: 40
      +3
      Quote: nicollider
      Shary is a creature of Kolomoisky?


      Okay, but Kolomoisky’s assistant Filatov threatened Sharia publicly to avert his eyes? Why so substitute if something happens to Sharia?
  4. sever.56
    sever.56 13 November 2014 14: 23
    +4
    Soon in all exchangers, shops and markets, for the hryvnia they will give not currency and goods, but in the eye !!!
  5. svp67
    svp67 13 November 2014 14: 25
    +5
    And in general, another example of the fact that Russia and Ukraine are BROTHERIC countries, to the common troubles of "fools and roads", here is another version of it added "On the competence of the head of the National Bank"
    1. Oldwiser
      Oldwiser 14 November 2014 09: 11
      0
      The speeches of our "super-duper-economists" (Nabiullina & Siluanov) are also not far from the level of Gontareva.
  6. Mikhail m
    Mikhail m 13 November 2014 14: 25
    +8
    I read - Ukraine, I think - Russia.
  7. Rubmolot
    Rubmolot 13 November 2014 14: 32
    +5
    And if silence already appears somewhere, then they force it to jump!
  8. domokl
    domokl 13 November 2014 14: 32
    +3
    Hryvnia, this Ukrainian denyuzhka, like a true Ukrainian, is jumping ... And rightly so. Who is not jumping, the same ... the ruble has stupidly gone down to pass on the throat to Western-oriented businessmen ...
    Dill squeals from the course and actively predicts a new maidan. Already everyone will recognize 20 by the new year. But there are optimists who predict for 40. Merry ... Glory to HEROYAM laughing
  9. sever.56
    sever.56 13 November 2014 14: 45
    +6
    http://topwar.ru/uploads/images/2014/133/hlmd332.jpg
  10. Evgen2x
    Evgen2x 13 November 2014 14: 47
    +3
    Well, what else can you say? Brains would buy them))) duck who will sell them then?))
  11. yehat
    yehat 13 November 2014 14: 59
    +2
    I can’t say that Shariy is very cute, however, he does a useful job - measures, analyzes and more or less accurately determines the degree of lies in the media. Not always true, but nonetheless quite meticulous. Moreover, both sides have claims against him, which I consider to be a sign of the relative objectivity of judgments.
  12. 23424636
    23424636 13 November 2014 15: 01
    0
    when Julia always appears, the collapse of 2008 at her premiership in 2014 - upon leaving the zone of 98, Yushchenko somehow maneuvered and did not let the hryvnia lie down. Maybe he can be put on time by the old banker and Poroshenko’s godfather.
    1. Penzyac
      Penzyac 13 November 2014 20: 08
      0
      Quote: 23424636
      when Julia always appears, the collapse of 2008 at her premiership in 2014 - upon leaving the zone of 98, Yushchenko somehow maneuvered and did not let the hryvnia lie down. Maybe he can be put on time by the old banker and Poroshenko’s godfather.

      Well, yes, Yusch is still that "banker"! ... fool
  13. vadimN
    vadimN 13 November 2014 15: 31
    +3
    And who would similarly analyze the statements of the head of our Central Bank of the Russian Federation ...?
    1. Penzyac
      Penzyac 13 November 2014 20: 10
      +2
      Quote: vadimN
      And who would similarly analyze the statements of the head of our Central Bank of the Russian Federation ...?

      There are many (Glazyev, Khazin and others), read more.
    2. Oldwiser
      Oldwiser 14 November 2014 09: 14
      0
      It is enough to raise the January forecasts of Mr. Siluanov (for oil prices and the level of the "corridor")
  14. mahnabar
    mahnabar 13 November 2014 15: 37
    +1
    Well, that’s it! Now it’s fair that the entrance to the urcoino is forever closed (or while Hitler’s current minions are in power), definitely Putin personally writes articles to him laughing
  15. Wildfox
    Wildfox 13 November 2014 15: 43
    +3
    Garbage is less necessary for our figures !!! all that is in the economy has already been sent to the ATO, no Russian troops have been found sales have not been taken from afar, and the economy has lost money. My observation is not a problem in the National Bank, but simply that the solvency of most Ukrainians has fallen below the plinth, even those who do not raise prices can sometimes not sell goods, people buy only the most necessary. So I think the hryvnia by the new year will fall over 20 confidently.
    1. Vladimirets
      Vladimirets 13 November 2014 15: 50
      +1
      Quote: WildFox
      So I think the hryvnia by the new year will fall over 20 confidently.

      You are an incorrigible optimist. wink
  16. AX
    AX 13 November 2014 15: 48
    +1
    Which country are such specialists ...
    1. Penzyac
      Penzyac 13 November 2014 20: 15
      +1
      Quote: AX
      Which country are such specialists ...

      All normal specialists went to other countries where they are paid normal money ...
  17. Messiah
    Messiah 13 November 2014 16: 14
    +2
    Today, don’t say that, but the National Bank is the State Bank! And it is state-controlled by 100%, therefore in Ukraine, one of the goals of the “Maidan Revolution” (maybe even the main one?) Was to change the status of the National Bank of Ukraine! And Poroshenko has already introduced the corresponding bill in Parliament. “Quietly”, the same people as always (the Fed and K) will create another private Central Bank and privatize the Ukrainian national currency - the Hryvnia! And there doesn’t give a damn if it is not possible to create an anti-Russian outpost, you can also "drain" the "dill", why do they need the Holodigans in Europe? We need their assets as a basis for add. Emissions $ \ Euro! And the Central Bank of Ukraine will be created and “flourish” - the “twin brother” of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, with all the “side dish” in addition ... by the way, Poroshenko mortgaged all his property to the Rothschilds and a trust fund was created in Geneva in the Rothschilds Bank for 2.1 billion dollars, he can at any time pack his bags and roll away, and everything is on his side! it does not hold anything in Ukraine ... he will soon stretch the privatization of the National Bank through the Rada and dump it!
  18. taseka
    taseka 13 November 2014 18: 09
    +1
    Once again I will voice the thought about that disgusting state that Ukraine fell through with the help of the EU and the OSCE - people are suffering, oligarchs are robbing, people are being killed, the nation is falling into political insanity!
    1. Penzyac
      Penzyac 13 November 2014 20: 19
      0
      Quote: taseka
      Once again I will voice the thought about that disgusting state that Ukraine fell through with the help of the EU and the OSCE - people are suffering, oligarchs are robbing, people are being killed, the nation is falling into political insanity!

      Was there really a nation? Maybe this is also an illusion?
  19. cergey51046
    cergey51046 13 November 2014 18: 45
    +1
    I think that all this leapfrog is created on purpose. It’s enough for the bank to make a commitment to redeem any of our rubles for 1 milligram of the architect and everything will come to soy circles, that is, introduce a gold ruble.
    1. Penzyac
      Penzyac 13 November 2014 20: 32
      +1
      Quote: cergey51046
      I think that all this leapfrog is created on purpose. It’s enough for the bank to make a commitment to redeem any of our rubles for 1 milligram of the architect and everything will come to soy circles, that is, introduce a gold ruble.

      This is nonsense, an anachronism. Where to get the amount of gold equal even to the existing volume of the ruble mass?
      In fact, the ruble is provided with everything that can be bought for it at all. Why should foreign buyers (according to contracts) pay us for our export goods and services not in rubles, but in foreign currency? In this case, our goods and services provide the purchasing power not of the ruble, but of this foreign currency. Do we work for someone else's "uncle"?
  20. chelovektapok
    chelovektapok 13 November 2014 19: 22
    +1
    What fright does the juntai commemorate the DNI, LNR industry? They have already sent Novorossia to an independent economic voyage. And they all share something there and wait for profits. They remind one of my acquaintance. He broke up with his wife, he drinks. But he tells what his wife's foreign car and how it is packed. At the meeting, he gets the former questions; Tell me! Do you really have a man after me? Answer: - True! There is! All can not calm down, the hunters are the same ....
  21. in our eyes
    in our eyes 13 November 2014 20: 08
    +1
    Quote: Evgen2x
    Well, what else can you say? Brains would buy them))) duck who will sell them then?))

    It’s not very crowded. Or is our course somewhat different from the hryvnia? They have at least a war, but ours?
  22. pensioner
    pensioner 13 November 2014 23: 07
    0
    Well ... If no one, then you yourself ... Kostya! Look how it should be: cover the meadow
    1. SHILO
      SHILO 13 November 2014 23: 20
      0
      Tin-plate laughing And on branches about engines, I suggested this ...

      So can we still ??? lol
  23. gammipapa
    gammipapa 13 November 2014 23: 19
    0
    In general, has anyone ever caught Sharia in a lie? Not once and no one.
    He would be on our first channel.
  24. FASO
    FASO 14 November 2014 03: 30
    0
    That's why he lives abroad, they do not like truth on the outskirts !!