Military Review

What happens to the ruble?

93
What happens to the ruble?

Recently, the attention of an increasing number of Russian citizens has been drawn to exchange rate quotations. While the ruble was losing pennies or a few dozen kopecks per month, the situation in the foreign exchange market was of little interest to anyone. Well, we do not have free circulation of foreign currency. Not 90 in the yard. But when, in recent days, the ups and downs of the dollar began to be measured in units of rubles per day, the situation began to affect the majority of the Russian population. Of course, compared to 90, the situation in the Russian economy is quieter, Russia is less dependent on imports, and there was even hope that the fall of the ruble would allow us to carry out further import substitution. But a forty percent drop in the ruble against last year’s values ​​and a particularly sharp 20% drop in just two months lead to the fact that even small amounts of imported products used by domestic producers (for example, spices in the meat industry) lead to the need to raise prices Not to mention the fact that the “patriotic” domestic producer, under the guise of it, considers it his duty to receive additional income.

Meanwhile, there is not a single economically justified reason for such a sharp collapse of the ruble exchange rate. Talking heads from the screen and "venerable economists" on the pages of newspapers and Internet sites are trying to bring some kind of economic base under the facts. Considering that economists theorists cannot explain what is happening in accessible words, they themselves do not understand what is happening, and all their attempts are translated into a set of words from the avian language of 90 liberals. Not only does the people do not understand this bird language, it also perfectly remembers that it was precisely under such clever and loud words a dozen years ago that we were frankly and shamelessly robbed.

I am not an economist, I am an engineer, a teacher, an entrepreneur, I didn’t understand what was going on for a long time, but some characteristic features of the events that took place made me remember the plot read in the art book. And when I laid out the facts with this association in mind, the puzzle was formed. For this reason, I will try to explain what is happening in simple words, so that everything becomes clear to the average person.

Let's start, perhaps, to dance from the stove. Nobody needs to explain what inflation is. If the money supply exceeds the volume of commodity, then the money begins to depreciate, and vice versa. Let's consider whether there are prerequisites for inflation in Russia? The market in Russia is catastrophically underfinanced, roughly speaking, there is not enough money in the economy. On this subject, see the article Glazyev or Fedorov. In such a situation, the currency of Russia should not fall, but its steady growth should be observed in relation to the same dollar, which is thrown into the world economy completely insecure. There should also be no internal inflation, i.e., an internal increase in commodity prices. However, we can observe internal inflation due to the fact that we live in a society of victorious monopoly capitalism. Therefore, the rise in prices by a monopolist or a monopolist cartel that affects all sectors of a country (for example, energy) leads to the fact that the entire business must include increased costs in its estimates, and also raise prices for its products. A few months after the monopoly price rises, the market again comes to balance. But during this time the monopolist gets its profit. And begins a new round of price race. But the decline in the value of a currency in the face of such inflation is slow. Otherwise, the state’s anti-monopoly structures will come into play, as the rapid price increase threatens the stability of the state.

What else can we explain the fall of the ruble? There are two main dishes that economists feed us. The first is the fall in oil prices, and the second is the outflow of capital. As for the first, everything is simple. The price of oil has really fallen. With that in recent times, her fall was pretty fast. But the mining sector in Russia last year accounted for only about 10% of GDP. Therefore, even if we assume that all production is oil and that it has fallen in price by 2, the fall of the ruble against the dollar can be only 5%. That is how much the volume of goods, calculated in dollars, will decrease. The withdrawal of capital and the related slowdown in “economic growth” also cannot produce such high inflation, since speculative capital is escaping from Russia. Just look at the site “Made by Us”, and it will be seen that in Russia there is a creation of new enterprises, transport infrastructure, sales are growing weaponsWith the example of Chinese investments in gas pipelines, one can talk about the inflow of capital into the real sector. Thus, the real sector of the economy associated with trade is growing. And the bubble is blown away by an unsecured currency commodity involved in an exchange game.

So, we found out that there are no economic prerequisites for a sharp depreciation of the ruble in Russia. But the facts are a stubborn thing. And therefore the only thing left to assume is to conduct an attack on our currency in the framework of an economic war. How does it work? To begin with, the enemy creates an information veil. Forming the false, but economically convincing factors leading to the fall of the attacked currency. In the case of the ruble, these are the notorious prices for oil and the “capital outflow”. The first, as we have already found out, cannot give such high inflation, and the second does not affect inflation at all in the long run, although it can affect it for a short time, creating a shortage of currency on the stock exchanges. At the same time, the mass of the attacked currency is accumulating, in this case, Western players have created stocks of the ruble mass through NPOs that exchange dollar grants for rubles through purchases of rubles, allegedly to provide oil imports for rubles, or simply by gradually buying rubles on the stock exchange. Then there is a powerful release of the accumulated ruble mass to the exchange. As a result, the exchange creates a significant excess of the ruble mass over the dollar, and there is a sharp increase in the dollar. This occurs at the moment when the peak of the action of information cover factors takes place. Further the media is actively involved in the game. Panic information is thrown through media agents such as Echo of Moscow or Dozhd (for example, one economist has already agreed to 200 rubles for a dollar), which is replicated by independent media who don’t want to lose readers looking for the answer to what happened, and, accordingly, income. Naturally, the attacker's resources are not unlimited, and once, and rather quickly, the stock of the ruble mass will run out. But to extend the attack, a fairly simple move is used, which we can observe now. Under the cover of informational stuffing (as, for example, an increase in the refinancing rate of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, or a short-term increase in oil prices, which took place on 1 and 5 in November), is used to buy up rubles, which leads to a short-term pullback of the dollar, and which are then thrown again the attack the next day. We could also see this when, on the next trading day after the pre-holiday correction, the dollar soared again on the stock exchange, updating the highs. The same thing happened during Friday, when the jumps in prices of the ruble against the dollar and the euro were recorded. Naturally, it is impossible to buy up a volume comparable to the original one, because then the attacked currency will play too much in price, so each subsequent attack will be weaker, and the purchase-sale cycles will become more frequent (which we see again). However, it is not necessary to be under a delusion especially. Further, the population itself begins to put pressure on the ruble, which in a panic begins to buy dollars, which also leads to an increase in their value. As a result, we can still see a rather large fall in the ruble. But the potential of this pressure must end sometime. And as a result, the ruble exchange rate will be established. And he even has to play a few positions, because the stock exchange will offer currency from exporters who do not see the point to wait for further price increases. Whereas importers should already have time to buy dollars in a panic of rising prices.

So what do we have? We have a powerful but short-term attack on the ruble. What can oppose the Central Bank, which is now accused of all mortal sins? Either intervention, or raising the refinancing rate. But these actions save the enemy money, since he does not need to roll back the price with his interventions. Plus, the Americans are attacking us with rubles bought on unsecured pieces of paper, while we defend ourselves with dollars that we received for a very specific product, i.e. losing our gold reserves. Therefore, the Central Bank of the Russian Federation rightly does not undertake major interventions, but the rate increase was an obvious mistake. However, any citizen who panicked and went to buy dollars does more for Americans than all CBR officials combined. The most radical is the establishment of a hard exchange rate of the ruble against major currencies. This will stabilize the domestic economic situation, but will have disastrous foreign trade consequences. Therefore, this tool can be applied only if there comes a panic and the threat of serious public discontent.

Now you can go to the question: why is it all the Americans? It seems to me that this is an attempt to force the Russian authorities to stop trading in energy for rubles. Unstable currency may not be interesting in large and especially long-term transactions. In the case, if the ruble is set at a fixed rate, foreign trade operations with it in principle will not be possible, since the ruble will lose its liquidity.

What are the forecasts? “Vangovat” is a thankless task, especially since, I repeat, I am not an economist. But, if I understand the situation correctly, the attacks are already ending (frequency of jumps), and the peak marks are not far, although the dollar can still win 5-10 rubles. Before the New Year, the ruble should overcome the pressure of buying up currency by the population, stop, and a correction should begin. It is difficult to say in concrete figures, since this is not a mathematical model, there are too many unknowns. But one thing is for sure, the economic war will crawl into our pockets with a new round of price increases. And for that we have to say a big “thank you” to the market economy.
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  1. The comment was deleted.
  2. MolGro
    MolGro 10 November 2014 07: 25
    +50
    People who really don't give a damn about our string vote!
    For the initiative.
    To oblige trade organizations to place on the price tags (labels) of goods produced in the territory of the Russian Federation, the Russian tricolor (colors of the state flag)
    Here is the voting link https://www.roi.ru/14880/

    And about the article
    The ruble fell on purpose.
    Speculative pressure to burn reserves before the global crisis!
    1. Alexander Romanov
      Alexander Romanov 10 November 2014 07: 29
      +29
      Quote: MolGro
      To oblige trade organizations to place on the price tags (labels) of goods produced in the territory of the Russian Federation, the Russian tricolor (colors of the state flag)

      As if they were for the flag, they still did not wind up 20 percent to the cost.
      1. Mitek
        Mitek 10 November 2014 07: 39
        +7
        Quote: Alexander Romanov
        Quote: MolGro
        To oblige trade organizations to place on the price tags (labels) of goods produced in the territory of the Russian Federation, the Russian tricolor (colors of the state flag)

        As if they were for the flag, they still did not wind up 20 percent to the cost.

        Color printing is actually not the cheapest pleasure). It’s easier to write what has been done in Russia and that’s all.
        1. WKS
          WKS 10 November 2014 14: 25
          +2
          If Walstreet presses on the ruble, then our government, as in the days of Gorbachev, harnessed the cart in front of the horse. And puts politics ahead of the economy. Not a single program for the development of the domestic economy has ever been and never has been. As the country sat on the needle and sits, and is not going to get down. Oil depreciated and financial collapse immediately. And for the home economy it is much more profitable to trade money than domestic goods.
          1. 222222
            222222 10 November 2014 23: 01
            0
            WKS RU Today, 14:25 ↑
            If Walstreet presses on the ruble, then our government, as in the days of Gorbachev, harnessed the cart in front of the horse.
            ""
            http://publizist.ru/blogs/34/8157/-
      2. smel
        smel 10 November 2014 10: 34
        +10

        As if they were for the flag, they still did not wind up 20 percent to the cost.

        I don’t know - I don’t know. They can and cheat. And not only 20 percent. For some reason, economists do not want to explain the Russian phenomenon of gasoline. Oil is getting more expensive and gas is getting more expensive. Oil is getting cheaper, and gas is getting more expensive again. And one more phenomenon concerning parliamentarians. Why do not they want to pass a law on limiting trade markups? For example, in 15%. That is, the manufacturer on the product writes the price of 100 rubles. So in the store this product should cost no more than 115. Apparently heavy law
        1. kartalovkolya
          kartalovkolya 10 November 2014 10: 58
          +12
          Everything is as easy as shelling pears: international corporations with the help of "our" so-called. entrepreneurs are elegantly robbing the population of Russia, this is the reason for this "phenomenon" of rising gasoline prices when oil prices fall! It is urgently necessary to hold a referendum on revising the "Yeltsin constitution" imposed on Russia, to carry out the immediate nationalization of the Central Bank JSC, to renounce all international treaties that infringe on the rights and the sovereignty of Russia, completely exclude the intervention of the US Federal Reserve in the policy of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation. And finally, "cleanse" the Government of the Russian Federation from the "chicks" of the Gaidar-Chubais HSE. Indeed, in Russia there are many very capable economists-patriots like Glazyev, Fedorov and many others!
          1. prio124
            prio124 10 November 2014 15: 54
            0
            Even here the liberals are minus. All can not be stolen.
          2. Password
            Password 10 November 2014 16: 07
            0
            ... an economic war will climb into our pockets with a new round of price increases. And for this we must say a big “thank you” to the market economy.

            Historical experience shows that the irremovability of the authorities, the absence of democratic election procedures, the control of society over the activities of officials inevitably lead to degradation and stagnation, which has been happening over the past 20 plus years.
          3. Viktortopwar
            Viktortopwar 10 November 2014 18: 17
            0
            To a point. We should have listened to people Fedorov EA, they would learn a lot of interesting things. Plus definitely.
        2. aleks 62
          aleks 62 10 November 2014 11: 54
          +13
          ...... Why do not they want to pass a law on limiting trade markups? For example, in 15% .....

          ..... This is called marginal trade margins ..... But it will work if there are a minimum number of resellers ..... In normal countries there is such a thing ... For example, in Norway with their famous fish law ... There according to this law, only 3 stages are involved in the production and sale of fish: the producer (the one who raised the fish or caught it in the sea), the wholesale buyer, the retailer ..... Each of them has its own trade markup limited by law - the producer is large, and the seller is smaller .... Everything is beautiful and transparent .... Therefore, the Norwegian fish on our counters is cheaper than domestic fish .... And we have a layer of a myriad of "buy and sell" (businessmen are called) ..... Everyone wants to eat , and in large quantities ..... Somewhere like that.
          1. prio124
            prio124 10 November 2014 15: 56
            +1
            Yeah, while the manufacturing sector is suffering. Damn. In which I now work.
        3. APES
          APES 10 November 2014 12: 34
          0
          everything is fine with the ruble:

          MOSCOW, 10 nov - 12 hours 30 minutes PRIME. Since November 10, the Central Bank of the Russian Federation canceled the interval of acceptable values ​​for the value of the dual-currency basket and regular interventions, such a statement is contained in a regulator’s statement on the exchange rate policy of the Bank of Russia published today.
        4. The comment was deleted.
        5. Ustas
          Ustas 10 November 2014 12: 56
          +3
          Quote: smel
          That is, the manufacturer on the product writes the price of 100 rubles. So in the store this product should cost no more than 115. The law is apparently hard

          Half of law-abiding entrepreneurs and enterprises will close.
          Small business will disappear completely.
          Although I am not opposed, on the condition that all market players must comply with this rule. Only in Russia is this not possible.
          1. aleks 62
            aleks 62 10 November 2014 13: 32
            +5
            ..... "Entrepreneur" should work on the back, and not on the wrap up of 100-300% ..... And everything will be gut ..... Otherwise, we have a small fry with a stall in the bazaar wants very fat live....
          2. prio124
            prio124 10 November 2014 15: 58
            0
            With so many controlling organizations, I think it's possible. Small businesses have a flat tax rate per year. Contributions to funds do not raise. Freeze at notify interested parties. When everyone works according to the rules, everything will fall into place.
        6. lukewarm
          lukewarm 10 November 2014 14: 21
          +1
          The Russian gasoline "phenomenon" is partly explained in an article about monopolies. Oil is getting more expensive - benz is getting more expensive, oil is getting cheaper - benz is getting more expensive because "oil industry workers" compensate their losses at the expense of the internal market, that is, you and me. Well, about limiting trade markups ... Well, this is a blow to the "market" which is still "our everything." In addition, merchants will whine again (perhaps partly rightly) about high taxes.
        7. prio124
          prio124 10 November 2014 15: 52
          0
          Do not forget how many intermediaries feed on this and the controlling organizations represented by all sorts of officials. In general, the idea is efficient and worthy. Our business does not see borders. And if possible, inflates prices. But in the same America, try 15 percent. cheat. Instantly gobble up the tax.
      3. atalef
        atalef 10 November 2014 11: 07
        +3
        Quote: Alexander Romanov
        Quote: MolGro
        To oblige trade organizations to place on the price tags (labels) of goods produced in the territory of the Russian Federation, the Russian tricolor (colors of the state flag)

        As if they were for the flag, they still did not wind up 20 percent to the cost.

        And if made in Russia, but from imported components?
      4. The comment was deleted.
    2. Flinky
      Flinky 10 November 2014 07: 31
      0
      Pointless occupation.
    3. Mahmut
      Mahmut 10 November 2014 09: 02
      +17
      Strange things are happening. The devaluation of the ruble is huge, but there is practically no inflation. So the ruble issue does not occur. And the increase in the exchange rate can be explained by the flight of the already stolen capital of individuals, frightened by sanctions. There are not enough currencies for everyone, so the rate is growing. The Central Bank calmly observes this and does the right thing. If capital is fleeing from Russia, then let it flee with maximum losses for their owners. Spending the state’s gold and foreign currency savings to mitigate thieves' losses is stupid and immoral. Bravo Nabiulina!
      1. tronin.maxim
        tronin.maxim 10 November 2014 09: 44
        +1
        We should visit the central bank!
      2. Rebus
        Rebus 10 November 2014 09: 46
        +6
        Quote: Mahmut
        Strange things are happening. The devaluation of the ruble is huge, but there is practically no inflation.

        Rapid devaluation does not mean rapid price increases. Devaluation is practically not valid for goods produced domestically, and there may be some stocks of goods produced abroad. Under such conditions, we may almost not notice inflation, since it will be the same or slightly higher than usual. Unless, of course, you go on vacation abroad, then the price increase will be very noticeable ...
        1. Ingvar 72
          Ingvar 72 10 November 2014 11: 50
          0
          Quote: Rebus
          For goods produced domestically, devaluation is practically not valid,

          Acts, speculators do not sleep.
      3. atalef
        atalef 10 November 2014 11: 15
        +1
        Quote: Mahmut
        Strange things are happening. The devaluation of the ruble is huge, but there is practically no inflation.

        Nothing strange, inflation always comes with a delay of 3-4 months.
        Quote: Mahmut
        So the ruble issue does not occur

        It happens because on the nose compensation for a rise in price and increase (if any) salaries to state employees
        Quote: Mahmut
        If capital is escaping from Russia, then let it run with maximum losses for their owners

        Funny you.
        The owners of the capital were Russian enterprises.

        Quote: Mahmut
        Spending on mitigating thieves' losses the state’s gold and foreign currency savings is stupid and immoral. Bravo Nabiulina!

        What bravo?
        You do not understand that it will be necessary to compensate for the rise in price, what? Well, first of all, additional taxes will be collected from the population, then the price will go up (and go), the State will receive additional money (and a lot) on this (as well as on increasing the dollar)
        Will begin to index pensions and salaries to state employees
        Everything seems to be fine (up to this point), but pensioners and state employees are far from the whole country,
        And an increase in money supply and prices will hit everyone else and hit so well.
        I think from December - January --- You will see what inflation is.
      4. Ingvar 72
        Ingvar 72 10 November 2014 11: 50
        +1
        Quote: Mahmut
        . Bravo Nabiulina!

        Another would be to untie the amount of the national currency from the number of dollars in the country's accounts (reform of the law on the Central Bank) and make a punitive body out of the antimonopoly committee so that they could be charged for unjustified price increases.
    4. Giant thought
      Giant thought 10 November 2014 10: 08
      -4
      Attacks of mattresses, mediocrity of the leadership of the government of the country and the Central Bank are the components of the process of depreciation of the ruble. Therefore, until the country has entered a financial peak, it is urgent to change the government of Medvedev and Nabiulina from the post of head of the Central Bank.
      1. Genry
        Genry 10 November 2014 11: 16
        +3
        Quote: Giant thought
        until the country has entered a financial peak, it is urgent to change the government of Medvedev and Nabiulina from the post of head of the Central Bank.

        Right, but fine. It will not give anything.
        It is necessary to change the status of the central bank in the Constitution. For this, a popular referendum is needed. But the people are not yet ready to understand this, poor political support for the actions of NOD, lack of understanding of the speeches of E. Fedorov
    5. The comment was deleted.
    6. Ivan79
      Ivan79 10 November 2014 13: 29
      -1
      It is also necessary to print the purchase price of the goods on the price tag ... wink
      1. The comment was deleted.
      2. atalef
        atalef 10 November 2014 13: 30
        +2
        Quote: Ivan79
        It is also necessary to print the purchase price of the goods on the price tag ... wink

        Now, and hang a loaded gun and the address of the owner of the store.
    7. APES
      APES 10 November 2014 13: 53
      +2
      Recently, an increasing number of Russian citizens have turned their attention to exchange rates.


      me too, I have $ 5 in my nest, and if the dollar starts to fall, I get really nervous ...
    8. The comment was deleted.
    9. Commissar of the NKVD
      Commissar of the NKVD 10 November 2014 16: 44
      0
      Quote: MolGro
      To oblige trade organizations to place on the price tags (labels) of goods produced in the territory of the Russian Federation, the Russian tricolor (colors of the state flag)

      And also write ba-a-a-a-alshim letters "MADE IN RUSSIA, B *** I WILL NOT SEE AN AGE OF WILL !!!"
      Bullshit!
    10. varov14
      varov14 10 November 2014 18: 23
      0
      "Speculative pressure" ---- Well, this pressure probably exists on the territory of Russia, and where is our FSB. Imagine, you hit the jackpot, find ... your home country, you go happy to your mistress and bang your KAMAZ ass - you are already spending money with the Lord in paradise. One gets the impression that the FSB do not really know their own purpose, goals, or objectives, and in fact, in the event of the destruction of statehood, no one needs them. Yes, in theory, they should be destroyed as carriers of, though trampled, but someone else's ideology. Their main support is still their own people, and the usual, not in vain before, and the sign was a shield and a sword (defenders). With a high standard of living, you can have preferences without relying on money, that such stupid ones - the right is in force, and the strength is in the people. And the people (the majority) need a guide and a normal "plate with hot borscht", everything else is on the drum. But it is necessary to educate in the spirit of patriotism and high morality, so that in difficult times one can rely on the whole "kulak"
    11. Denis fj
      Denis fj 10 November 2014 20: 24
      0
      Did Putin say that the psychologically important mark is 45 rubles? 44 rubles per dollar is a normal rate, better than 37 rubles, although at that time he also offered to keep money in rubles ... Veselchak, however.
    12. Zoldat_A
      Zoldat_A 10 November 2014 21: 01
      +4
      To oblige trade organizations to place on the price tags (labels) of goods produced in the territory of the Russian Federation, the Russian tricolor (colors of the state flag)
      Do not tell my slippers!
      Evgeny Alekseevich Fedorov, Chairman of the Russian State Duma Committee on Economic Policy and Entrepreneurship, member of the United Russia faction: “Yes, indeed, if we talk about large industry, 95% of it is not only offshore, just in foreign jurisdiction. Large Russian property: industry , banks and everything else - this is a foreign jurisdiction, it's true. ... That is, the names of Russian citizens, but at the same time they own something in Cyprus or Gibraltar, or in Luxembourg, and this "something" already owns business in Russia. "
      What flag should be placed on Baltika beer or Prostokvashino milk?
      It will be interesting to read, for example, this - http://mcx-consult.ru/d/77622/d/uchastie-innostrannogo-kapitala-v-pischevoy-prom
      ylennosti-rossii_analiz.pdf

      The idea with flags is at the level of initiatives of the radical revolutionary circles of the beginning of the last century. It is not necessary to start from the wrong place. Globalization, gentlemen. 21st century in the yard ...
  3. Dejavu
    Dejavu 10 November 2014 07: 33
    +10
    Russian production is incomparable with what it was in the 90s. We stand.
    1. The comment was deleted.
      1. Bartolomiu
        Bartolomiu 10 November 2014 08: 49
        +6
        Quote: SWEET_SIXTEEN
        The main thing - oil is three times more expensive than in the 90s!

        So the dollar in the 90s was more expensive.

        The Central Bank of the Russian Federation rightly does not undertake major interventions

        The Central Bank completely consciously missed the moment when it was necessary to use foreign exchange interventions. Dollars in the reserve fund are just unsecured pieces of paper exchanged with us for resources. In order not to create inflation in their own country, Americans throw printed money into the global economy, where they are exchanged for specific resources and goods that are returned to the country. This is called inflation export. And so that the dollar does not depreciate, it is strange, like ours, to oblige to create a reserve fund in which these very pieces of paper are accumulated, thereby restricting their free circulation. In the future, it is absolutely necessary to get rid of the reserve fund, but since we have it, the Central Bank should have used the mechanism of currency interventions to the full. If he had thrown a sufficient number of dollars at the very beginning of the depreciation of the ruble, there would have been no depreciation. Not a single speculator could offer a comparable number of rubles. And seeing that the Central Bank is serious about supporting the ruble, in principle, there would be no excitement. Well, a high rate is a barrier to the development of industry and the country's economy. It is not possible to come up with a project that would bring profit in the near future, making it possible to pay off a loan from the Central Bank. Unless of course it is a drug or human trafficking.
        1. T80UM1
          T80UM1 10 November 2014 09: 07
          -5
          Quote: Bartolomiu
          Dollars in the reserve fund are just unsecured pieces of paper exchanged with us for resources. In order not to create inflation in their own country, Americans throw printed money into the global economy, where they are exchanged for specific resources and goods that are returned to the country. This is called inflation export.

          You write nonsense, the dollar is provided with technologies that everyone draws from the USA and Europe. Without technology, the global factory in China or India will simply bend. The legalized slavery of the times of the new Roman Empire (USA).
          Quote: Bartolomiu
          In the future, it is absolutely necessary to get rid of the reserve fund, but since we have it, the Central Bank should have used the mechanism of currency interventions to the full. If he had thrown a sufficient number of dollars at the very beginning of the depreciation of the ruble, there would have been no depreciation. Not a single speculator could offer a comparable number of rubles.

          Do you suggest depriving yourself of a reserve source of currency during a trade deficit and increased costs?
          Quote: Bartolomiu
          Well, a high rate is a barrier to the development of industry and the country's economy.

          if you make the rate low then there will be high inflation due to excess money supply, in the long run it will have a positive effect (like QUE in the USA or current easing in Europe), but hyperinflation in the short term (if 80-90% is not developed import substitution that the EU has in Japan, the EU, so they spend their rates lowering without harming themselves)
          1. Bartolomiu
            Bartolomiu 10 November 2014 09: 23
            +5
            Quote: T80UM1

            You write nonsense, the dollar is provided with technologies that everyone draws from the USA and Europe. Without technology, the global factory in China or India will simply bend. The legalized slavery of the times of the new Roman Empire (USA).
            All that the dollar is endowed with is unfounded trust. Any currency should rely on completely tangible goods and resources, not services.

            Quote: T80UM1
            Do you suggest depriving yourself of a reserve source of currency during a trade deficit and increased costs?
            I said in perspective. When the rate drops to zero and industry begins to develop and the country's economy grows. Those. from the category of developing (or underdeveloped, as you like), we will move on to developed countries. And the economy will not be built on foreign investment, but on domestic lending.

            Quote: T80UM1
            if you make the rate low then there will be high inflation due to excess money supply, in the long run it will have a positive effect (like QUE in the USA or current easing in Europe), but hyperinflation in the short term (if 80-90% is not developed import substitution that the EU has in Japan, the EU, so they spend their rates lowering without harming themselves)
            We have some infrastructure facilities above the roof. Building roads alone can take more than a decade. And the development of transport is one of the factors of economic growth.
            1. T80UM1
              T80UM1 10 November 2014 10: 00
              0
              Quote: Bartolomiu
              All that the dollar is endowed with is unfounded trust. Any currency should rely on completely tangible goods and resources, not services.

              then all services both inside and outside the country should be free, for example, a haircut by a hairdresser, various technical services, law and order, etc. 75% of GDP is services 25% of the goods.
              Quote: Bartolomiu
              We have some infrastructure facilities above the roof. Building roads alone can take more than a decade. And the development of transport is one of the factors of economic growth.

              if there is nothing to carry (goods) on the roads or there is no need to travel (services), then they are useless. We must first develop the base, and then the infrastructure is a serving part of the economy, not an operational one
              Quote: Bartolomiu
              Those. from the category of developing (or underdeveloped, as you like), we will move on to developed countries.

              Explain this to the population who will have to tighten their belts voluntarily-forcibly, in Japan it was rolled, but in Russia it will? I doubt that Stalin is not at the helm, first you need 37 years and nationalization with collectivization ...
              1. Bartolomiu
                Bartolomiu 10 November 2014 10: 42
                +1
                Quote: T80UM1
                then all services both inside and outside the country should be free, for example, a haircut by a hairdresser, various technical services, law and order, etc. 75% of GDP is services 25% of the goods.
                You can argue for a long time about the optimal ratio of services / goods to the country's GDP, but this does not apply to the provision of currency. What is the difference between a haircut in an American hairdresser and a haircut in a Russian one? After all, the conversation is not about the very payment for services, but about the inflated cost of these very services, as in the USA.

                Quote: T80UM1
                if there is nothing to carry (goods) on the roads or there is no need to travel (services), then they are useless. We must first develop the base, and then the infrastructure is a serving part of the economy, not an operational one
                So no one forbids building factories in parallel.

                Quote: T80UM1
                Explain this to the population who will have to tighten their belts voluntarily-forcibly, in Japan it was rolled, but in Russia it will? I doubt that Stalin is not at the helm, first you need 37 years and nationalization with collectivization ...
                Let the population decide how to live. If you want to continue to feed on Western handouts - then the flag is in their hands. And if you really want to build a sovereign independent country, then I think the temporary inconvenience in some way will not affect this desire. I made a choice for myself and I will in every way defend my position. Moreover, we now have enough money to smooth the transition period.
                1. Bartolomiu
                  Bartolomiu 10 November 2014 11: 27
                  +1
                  PS the phrase: "not provided with anything" is just such a phraseological unit. Naturally, the dollar is based on the US economy. More precisely, on the confidence in this economy. It's just that the economy itself in America is not actually self-sufficient, but financed from outside. It is not for nothing that the national debt is such. As for technology, I wrote earlier that this is the US's way of restarting its economy. Thanks to debts, the United States is on the verge of the 6th technological order, the transition to which will finally put America at the head of the world and no one will care about any debts.
                2. atalef
                  atalef 10 November 2014 11: 32
                  -1
                  Quote: Bartolomiu
                  What is the difference between a haircut in an American hairdresser and a haircut in a Russian one? After all, the conversation is not about the very payment for services, but about the inflated cost of these very services, as in the USA.

                  Exactly the same as a haircut in Russia and Zimbabwe (you can live there for a year)
                  I think you do not say that prices in Russia are inflated
                  The price level is determined by the purchasing power of the population (for services), if these are imported goods (in relation to the dollar, there is nowhere to go)
                  Goods produced domestically - exclusively on the purchasing power of the population.

                  Quote: Bartolomiu
                  . And if you really want to build a sovereign independent country, then I think the temporary inconvenience in some way will not affect this desire.

                  Nowhere in the world of Yu now does not produce everything.
                  America likewise buys in Germany or elsewhere, and vice versa - while they don’t have the idea that it would strike at their independence
                  To build an absolutely independent economy in modern realities (and even under the conditions of sanctions) is neither realistic, nor simply completely lagging behind in development.
                  Quote: Bartolomiu
                  Moreover, we now have enough money to smooth the transition period.

                  No money .
                  Do not console yourself.
                  They will be enough at best for 2 years, at worst for a year
                  1. Bartolomiu
                    Bartolomiu 10 November 2014 12: 42
                    +1
                    Quote: atalef
                    Exactly the same as haircuts in Russia and Zimbabwe
                    Fundamentally nothing. That is the essence. What in the USA, what in Zimbabwe, what in Russia, a hairdresser will spend the same number of calories, hence the resources needed to produce these calories.

                    Quote: atalef
                    Nowhere in the world of Yu now does not produce everything.
                    America likewise buys in Germany or elsewhere, and vice versa - while they don’t have the idea that it would strike at their independence
                    To build an absolutely independent economy in modern realities (and even under the conditions of sanctions) is neither realistic, nor simply completely lagging behind in development.
                    For some reason, your independent is equated with isolated. The meaning of a sovereign economy is that it works in the interests of its country.

                    Quote: atalef
                    No money .
                    Do not console yourself.
                    They will be enough at best for 2 years, at worst for a year

                    There is money. Two years is a sufficient period for reorienting the economy.
                    1. atalef
                      atalef 10 November 2014 12: 56
                      -1
                      Quote: Bartolomiu
                      Fundamentally nothing. That is the essence. What in the USA, what in Zimbabwe, what in Russia the hairdresser will spend the same number of calories

                      And you zp already counted on calories?
                      Agree to live on a dollar a day? s.p. in Zimbabwe?

                      Quote: Bartolomiu
                      For some reason, your independent is equated with isolated


                      not with me, you. Your promise (like many here) - we will do everything ourselves
                      Quote: Bartolomiu
                      The meaning of a sovereign economy is that it works in the interests of its country.

                      Are there anyone who works in the interests of another?
                      Quote: Bartolomiu
                      There is money. Two years is a sufficient period for reorienting the economy.

                      no not enough
                    2. atalef
                      atalef 10 November 2014 12: 56
                      0
                      Quote: Bartolomiu
                      Fundamentally nothing. That is the essence. What in the USA, what in Zimbabwe, what in Russia the hairdresser will spend the same number of calories

                      And you zp already counted on calories?
                      Agree to live on a dollar a day? s.p. in Zimbabwe?

                      Quote: Bartolomiu
                      For some reason, your independent is equated with isolated


                      not with me, you. Your promise (like many here) - we will do everything ourselves
                      Quote: Bartolomiu
                      The meaning of a sovereign economy is that it works in the interests of its country.

                      Are there anyone who works in the interests of another?
                      Quote: Bartolomiu
                      There is money. Two years is a sufficient period for reorienting the economy.

                      no not enough
            2. atalef
              atalef 10 November 2014 11: 23
              -1
              Quote: Bartolomiu
              All that the dollar is endowed with is unfounded trust

              Generally . and then what is the ruble based on?
              Industrial production in the states is 10 times more than in Russia, and for that matter, they already produce more gas and oil than in Russia.
              Quote: Bartolomiu
              Any currency should rely on completely tangible goods and resources, not services.

              Google, Intel, Apple, Microsoft (let's start with this) - what you use (if only to leave this comment) --- are in the USA

              Well and so you can go on and on
              Quote: Bartolomiu
              When the rate drops to zero and industry begins to develop and the country's economy grows

              In Russia, the rate to zero will not decrease (in any case, in an objective perspective) since it cannot be lower than inflation.

              Quote: Bartolomiu
              Those. from the category of developing (or underdeveloped, as you like), we will move on to developed countries


              To do this, at least raise the GDP by 3 times (in order to ensure the corresponding income per capita)
              Quote: Bartolomiu
              And the economy will not be built on foreign investment, but on domestic lending.

              Where does the money come from? Zin?
              Quote: Bartolomiu
              We have some infrastructure facilities above the roof. Building roads alone can take decades

              Yes, but they do not bring objective income.
              Quote: Bartolomiu
              And the development of transport is one of the factors of economic growth.

              Just one and certainly not primary.
              1. Bartolomiu
                Bartolomiu 10 November 2014 13: 03
                +1
                Quote: atalef
                Generally . and then what is the ruble based on?
                Industrial production in the states is 10 times more than in Russia, and for that matter, they already produce more gas and oil than in Russia. Google, Intel, Apple, Microsoft (let's start with this) - what do you use (at least for that .to leave this comment) --- are in the USA

                Well and so you can go on and on

                The ruble is based on the future. In Russia, a huge number of minerals other than oil and gas. And Russia has much more prospects. After all, even the oil trade is spot, i.e. guarantees of future deliveries. The ruble is based on this. Using Google, you won’t cook porridge for yourself, and with the help of gas, yes. It is also necessary to separate the concepts of the internal dollar and the external. What do you think will happen to the currency of America if all dollars in the United States are returned from all kinds of reserves? In America, the budget deficit is covered by external borrowing, hence the national debt. Why is there a shortage? One of the factors is insufficient tax revenues. Low taxes are good for business, for Google, for example. But it turns out that Google was created on external subsidies, i.e. someone from developing countries paid for it. That’s the whole power of America’s economy.

                Quote: atalef
                In Russia, the rate to zero will not decrease (in any case, in an objective perspective) since it cannot be lower than inflation.
                Negative rates are even possible. But in the first couple it will be enough within inflation.

                Quote: atalef
                Where does the money come from? Zin?
                Russia has a positive trade balance. Here, by the way, we return to the issue of deoffshorization. The President set the task to accelerate this process. What the government openly doesn’t give a damn about.

                Quote: atalef
                Yes, but they do not bring objective income.
                It’s not about income, investing in infrastructure is a method of combating high inflation while lowering rates.
                1. The comment was deleted.
                2. atalef
                  atalef 10 November 2014 13: 27
                  0
                  Quote: Bartolomiu
                  The ruble is based on the future. In Russia, a huge number of minerals other than oil and gas. And Russia has much more prospects

                  Do not confuse God's gift with fried eggs

                  Quote: Bartolomiu
                  After all, even the oil trade is spot, i.e. guarantees of future deliveries.

                  You do not even distinguish between spots and futures.
                  What to talk about ?
                  Quote: Bartolomiu
                  . Using Google, you won’t cook porridge for yourself, and with the help of gas, yes.

                  Yes ? And I thought I needed another pan and cereal.
                  Quote: Bartolomiu
                  What do you think will happen to the currency of America if all dollars in the United States are returned from all kinds of reserves?

                  And with the ruble? If all deposits are pulled out and thrown to the market?
                  Do not turn the economy into a farce, otherwise I will answer you with the catch phrase GDP, about the possibility of grandmother having sexual characteristics of grandfather
                  Quote: Bartolomiu
                  ? In America, the budget deficit is covered by external borrowing, hence the public debt


                  as elsewhere in the world (only there are also internal borrowings)
                  Quote: Bartolomiu
                  But it turns out that Google was created on external subsidies, i.e. someone from developing countries paid for it. That's the whole power of America’s economy

                  I invested in Google, sorry a little, received 3 times more contribution.
                  those. (on the example of Google) the investor has enriched 3 times - not bad for a developing country (although of course all the babble you have written)
                  Quote: Bartolomiu
                  The President set the task to accelerate this process. What the government openly doesn’t give a damn about.

                  I already burst into tears, I see a picture, the President was sad and wiped himself.
                  And Medvedev probably also gave him a leech
                  Quote: Bartolomiu
                  It’s not about income, investing in infrastructure is a method of combating high inflation while lowering rates.

                  Damn, and if you decrypt this opus?
                  1. Bartolomiu
                    Bartolomiu 10 November 2014 13: 43
                    0
                    Quote: atalef
                    You do not even distinguish between spots and futures.
                    What to talk about ?

                    My mistake, I agree.

                    Quote: atalef
                    Damn, and if you decrypt this opus?
                    The fact is that in the first couple for the development of infrastructure, foreign equipment is purchased, which compensates for the imbalance of money supply and goods.
                    1. atalef
                      atalef 10 November 2014 13: 47
                      0
                      Quote: Bartolomiu
                      The fact is that in the first couple for the development of infrastructure, foreign equipment is purchased, which compensates for the imbalance of money supply and goods

                      Inflation is caused (usually by an increase in the money supply, due to a general rise in price. How will the purchase of something abroad. Reduce the price level in the country.
                      After all, money is printed before everything else to compensate for the rise in price., And if you buy something that does not generate income (and therefore does not increase the cost of goods and services), this will increase inflation even more.
                    2. The comment was deleted.
                      1. Bartolomiu
                        Bartolomiu 10 November 2014 13: 52
                        0
                        Quote: atalef
                        Inflation is caused (usually by an increase in the money supply, due to a general rise in price. How will the purchase of something abroad. Reduce the price level in the country.
                        After all, money is printed before everything else to compensate for the rise in price., And if you buy something that does not generate income (and therefore does not increase the cost of goods and services), this will increase inflation even more.
                        With a decrease in the rate, inflation will be caused by an increase in the money supply due to mass lending. To put this money somewhere, equipment is purchased.
                  2. Bartolomiu
                    Bartolomiu 10 November 2014 14: 51
                    +1
                    Quote: atalef
                    Do not confuse God's gift with fried eggs
                    Yeah, the borders themselves were formed and no one fought for these lands and did not scout new territories.
        2. Canep
          Canep 10 November 2014 11: 22
          0
          Quote: Bartolomiu
          If he had thrown a sufficient number of dollars at the very beginning of the depreciation of the ruble, there would have been no depreciation.

          If in the West they decided to consciously bring down the ruble exchange rate, then the Central Bank would throw away all reserves and then the exchange rate would fall anyway. And if this is a temporary decrease, then the ruble’s positions themselves will recover. There is another thing, the dollar is growing at a faster rate than the ruble. Everything is getting cheaper in dollars, oil, gold, palladium, nickel, euro, yen, pound.
          1. atalef
            atalef 10 November 2014 11: 34
            0
            Quote: Canep
            There is another thing, the dollar is growing faster than the ruble


            ??
            Where in the world? The dollar is growing the same, but an order of magnitude slower
          2. The comment was deleted.
    2. MOISEY
      MOISEY 10 November 2014 08: 30
      +6
      Of course we stand, because in the 90s, the population had really large savings, which instantly depreciated, but today, in the era of loans, most of the population (especially in the regions) has no savings, many of my friends generally have fun with their mortgages - because they hope to give less money in consequence of inflation.
    3. T80UM1
      T80UM1 10 November 2014 08: 45
      0
      my opinion, I predicted the fall of the ruble 2 years ago.

      The reasons:
      1) 3-fold increase in spending on law enforcement agencies. increase in social expenses (pensions, benefits, mat capital)
      2) a decrease in the working-age population (aging).
      3) political situation (sanctions, war in Ukraine)
      4) increased costs for unnecessary projects (World Cup, Olympiad)
      5) inefficient financial system (a large number of bureaucracy)
      6) inefficient spending of funds (kickbacks, corruption)
      7) high imports (food, high-tech equipment, clothing)
      8) falling prices for raw materials (metals, oil, gas)

      real rate, not restrained: 50-60 rubles \ dollar

      Especially for compatriots, the real tenge / ruble exchange rate for KZ is 2-3 tenge per ruble. But devaluation will happen (you have to feed yourself beloved) a factor of 4-5 tenge per ruble.

      What can be fixed without loss of reputation and profitably? points 2 4 5 6 7. In the long run, 2 5 6 7. It takes time, which many lack (need now and immediately ...) especially points 5 and 6.

      Sincerely, Specialist in Finance and Economics.
      1. Victor R
        Victor R 10 November 2014 10: 22
        -1
        In continuation.
        9) over the past 15 years, about $ 1000 billion has been withdrawn from Russia. Return!!! Prohibit the withdrawal of capital in offshore.
        10) to return all foreign exchange reserves from Western accounts to Russia and the Russian economy. It is better to develop roads, industry, agricultural.
        11) conserve resources. Enough to warm the enemies, their grandchildren will be warm.
        1. atalef
          atalef 10 November 2014 11: 46
          0
          Quote: Victor R
          over the past 15 years, about $ 1000 billion has been withdrawn from Russia. Return!!!

          How ?

          Quote: Victor R
          Prohibit the withdrawal of capital in offshore

          as ?
          Quote: Victor R
          return all foreign exchange reserves from Western accounts to Russia and the Russian economy

          As?

          Quote: Victor R
          save resources. Stop warming your enemies, your grandchildren will be warm

          Do not sell oil and gas?
      2. alicante11
        10 November 2014 11: 20
        +1
        Dear specialist in finance and economics. What you have listed does not apply to inflation. and some moments, on the contrary, can hinder her.
        1. An increase in budget expenditures, if rubles are not printed for it, cannot lead to inflation of the ruble. Because all the money spent from the budget turns out to be related in the economy to the goods bought on them. This is the REAL GDP sector.
        2. A decrease in the able-bodied population cannot affect inflation in the presence of unemployment. Labor market supply is less than need.
        3. Here, to a point, this does not apply in any way to economic issues.
        4. Expenditures on "unnecessary" projects - this is also the real sector of GDP. All the money spent turned out to be tied up in the economy, moreover, it did not turn over once.
        5 and 6. I agree, but I don’t think that our system is more bureaucratic or more corrupt than that of Amers or Europeans. At the same time, the euro and the dollar are growing ...
        7. Numbers should be given on this item. Foreign trade balance with us, IMHO. positive.
        8. Affects, but not so much.
        1. atalef
          atalef 10 November 2014 11: 44
          0
          Quote: alicante11
          Raising budget expenditures if rubles are not printed for it cannot lead to ruble inflation

          Of course, but this can happen only in the case of an increase in the revenue side of the budget (tax collection), which can only happen if GDP and the budget are in surplus.
          As you understand, now in Russia there is neither one nor the other
          Quote: alicante11
          Because all the money spent from the budget turns out to be related in the economy to the goods bought on them

          What are you saying ?
          Quote: alicante11
          A decrease in the working-age population cannot affect inflation in the presence of unemployment.

          Yes ? Well, let’s see when the non-production sector (represented by pensioners) increases (and therefore not the production money supply) and how this will affect inflation.
          You probably don’t remember the end of the 90s and the beginning of the 2000s when indexation of pensions. instantly caused an increase in inflation - and after all, unemployment was then
          Quote: alicante11
          Here, to a point, only this does not apply to economic issues

          More how it relates. Economics is not 100% math
          Quote: alicante11
          Spending on "unnecessary" projects is also the real sector of GDP

          The real sector of GDP is what brings returns.
          The rest is just a waste.
          Of course, they also contribute to consumption, but from them there is no income to the state in taxes - which means it's just eating up.
          Next - money spent, no taxes, print new ones - followed by inflation and so on
          Quote: alicante11
          I agree, but I don’t think that our system is more bureaucratic or more corrupt than that of Amers or Europeans

          You can not even doubt it. More and orders of magnitude
          Quote: alicante11
          At this point you need to give numbers. Foreign trade balance with us, IMHO. positive.

          This is not enough.
          1. alicante11
            10 November 2014 13: 37
            0
            Of course, but this can happen only in the case of an increase in the revenue side of the budget (tax collection), which can only happen if GDP and the budget are in surplus.


            It is not true, if there is a deficit that is covered by the gold reserves, and not by turning on the printing press, then where does inflation come from?

            What are you saying ?


            Yes, I say so. If they built something on budget money, then they can no longer generate inflation. Because they produced products in the real sector of GDP, i.e. commodity mass increased by their value.

            Yes ? Well, let’s see when the non-production sector (represented by pensioners) increases (and therefore not the production money supply) and how this will affect inflation.


            well, look, pensioners spend money on goods. Paying for their production. As long as there is no excess of money supply over commodity, inflation will not occur.

            You probably don’t remember the end of the 90s and the beginning of the 2000s when indexation of pensions. instantly caused an increase in inflation - and after all, unemployment was then


            I remember very well that it was internal inflation caused by rising prices from traders. But not 40 percent in a few months!

            More how it relates. Economics is not 100% math


            That’s exactly what, I’m saying that the depreciation of the ruble has nothing to do with the economic indicators of the Russian economy, only politics.

            The real sector of GDP is what brings returns.


            The real sector of GDP is what produces the goods. Exchange operations also bring returns, but do not produce anything.

            Next - money spent, no taxes, print new ones - followed by inflation and so on


            so we don’t print them. The fact of the matter is that we print only as much as there are gold reserves. And even less.

            You can not even doubt it. More and orders of magnitude


            You and I didn't drink at brotherhood. So it's too early to switch to "you". But I doubt it, as much as the Americans launder money, no one dreamed of.

            This is not enough.


            What else do you need? The man said that our inflation is influenced by high imports. I replied that exports are greater. What other additional lotions are needed?
            1. atalef
              atalef 10 November 2014 14: 40
              0
              [quote = alicante11] It’s not true that if there is a deficit that is covered by gold reserves, and not by turning on the printing press, then where does inflation come from? [/ quote]

              Interesting . and compensation to state employees is also done by gold reserves?

              [quote = alicante11] Yes, I say so. If they built something on budget money, then they can no longer generate inflation [/ quote]

              Easy
              Take 100t people. give them a salary and let one half dig a pit. the second bury (paying them zp respectively 0. and then we'll see how this will affect inflation

              [quote = alicante11] well, look, pensioners spend money on goods. Paying for their production. As long as there is no excess of money supply over commodity, inflation will not happen. [/ Quote]

              In case the goods do not rise in price

              [quote = alicante11] I remember very well that it was internal inflation caused by rising prices from traders. But not 40 percent in a few months! [/ Quote]
              And who told you that inflation will be 40%?
              The fall of the ruble will spur inflation and it will reach 9-13% per annum

              [quote = alicante11] [quote] Of course, but this can happen only in the case of an increase in the revenue side of the budget (tax collection), which can only happen if GDP grows and the budget is surplus [/ quote]


              It is not true, if there is a deficit that is covered by the gold reserves, and not by turning on the printing press, then where does inflation come from?


              [quote] What are you saying? [/ quote]


              Yes, I say so. If they built something on budget money, then they can no longer generate inflation. Because they produced products in the real sector of GDP, i.e. commodity mass increased by their value.

              [Quote]
              Yes ? Well, let’s see when the non-production sector (represented by pensioners) increases (and therefore not the production money supply) and how this will affect inflation. [/ Quote]


              well, look, pensioners spend money on goods. Paying for their production. As long as there is no excess of money supply over commodity, inflation will not occur.


              [quote] You probably don't remember the end of the 90s and the beginning of the 2000s when indexation of pensions. instantly caused an increase in inflation - but unemployment was then [/ quote]


              I remember very well that it was internal inflation caused by rising prices from traders. But not 40 percent in a few months!

              [Quote] More how it relates. Economics is not 100% math [/ quote]


              That’s exactly what, I’m saying that the depreciation of the ruble has nothing to do with the economic indicators of the Russian economy, only politics.
              1. alicante11
                10 November 2014 14: 56
                +1
                Interesting . and compensation to state employees is also done by gold reserves?


                They are the most native.

                Take 100t people. give them a salary and let one half dig a pit. the second bury (paying them zp respectively 0. and then we'll see how this will affect inflation


                Well, not a fact, not a fact, in order to dig a pit, you need shovels, you need to produce and pay for them, you need to bring diggers in the machine, which you need to grind out at the factory that you need to build, the car needs fuel, etc. etc. If you try to exaggerate, then I can do it too. Don’t worry. As long as the money supply does not exceed the commodity supply, there will be no inflation.

                In case the goods do not rise in price


                there is such a sin - and I reflected it in the article, as well as the reasons.

                And who told you that inflation will be 40%?
                The fall of the ruble will spur inflation and it will reach 9-13% per annum


                I meant just the fall of the ruble.
            2. atalef
              atalef 10 November 2014 14: 42
              0
              [quote] The real sector of GDP is what brings returns. [/ quote]

              The real sector of GDP is what produces the goods. Exchange operations also bring returns, but do not produce anything.

              [quote] Next - money spent, no taxes, we print new ones - followed by inflation and so on in a circle [/ quote]

              so we don’t print them. The fact of the matter is that we print only as much as there are gold reserves. And even less.

              [quote] You can not even doubt it. More and orders of magnitude [/ quote]

              You and I didn't drink at brotherhood. So it's too early to switch to "you". But I doubt it, as much as the Americans launder money, no one dreamed of.

              [quote] This is not enough. [/ quote]

              What else do you need? The man said that our inflation is influenced by high imports. I replied that exports are greater. What other additional lotions are needed? [/ Quote]

              Economic - has. Stagnation in the economy, a surprise for you?
              [quote = alicante11] The real sector of GDP is what produces the goods. Exchange operations also bring returns, but do not produce anything. [/ Quote]
              Stupidity, they make money. and this is the same product
              [quote = alicante11] so we don’t print them. The fact of the matter is that we print only as much as there are gold reserves. And even less [/ quote]
              You print and gold reserves in this formula has nothing to do.
              By the way there are not many
              [quote = alicante11] What else do you need? The man said that our inflation is influenced by high imports. I replied that exports are greater. What other additional lotions are needed? [/ Quote]
              And rightly so (about import said), export is not affected.
              1. alicante11
                10 November 2014 15: 00
                +1
                Economic - has. Stagnation in the economy, a surprise for you?


                Stagnation is going on in the non-productive sector. Therefore, it can in no way affect the mass of goods.

                Stupidity, they make money. and this is the same product


                This is your stupidity. Money is a commodity only for amers - the Fed dollar. For everyone else, it's a meter.

                You print and gold reserves in this formula has nothing to do.
                By the way there are not many


                What are you? Have you forgotten your Western economic theories? Quickly, quickly, it cost only to forget it became profitable.

                And rightly so (about import said), export is not affected.


                You are raving.
                1. atalef
                  atalef 10 November 2014 15: 11
                  -1
                  Quote: alicante11
                  Stagnation is going on in the non-productive sector. Therefore, it can in no way affect the mass of goods.

                  God, what nonsense. Your money is divided into production and non-production

                  Quote: alicante11
                  This is your stupidity. Money is a commodity only for amers - the Fed dollar. For everyone else, it's a meter.

                  Is money a measurer?
                  Then what money to measure this nonsense?
                  Quote: alicante11
                  What are you? Have you forgotten your Western economic theories? Quickly, quickly, it cost only to forget it became profitable.

                  What do not you like ?
                  Quote: alicante11
                  Interesting . and compensation to state employees is also done by gold reserves? They are the same, relatives.

                  And this does not increase the money supply in circulation?
                  1. alicante11
                    10 November 2014 15: 58
                    -1
                    God, what nonsense. Your money is divided into production and non-production


                    Yes, this is raving in the West, they are used to trading in air, and now they have forgotten what a product is. Money is money. And they depreciate when there are fewer goods than them. Dispute?

                    Is money a measurer?
                    Then what money to measure this nonsense?


                    The same as your nonsense. at least you remember the history of the emergence of money, which was taught at the institute. Still, I did not study in Jewishstan, but in the USSR or in Russia, when the Soviet system of education was still alive.

                    And this does not increase the money supply in circulation?


                    Money supply - increases, but not more than there are goods, because gold reserves are obtained from taxes that are received from operations with goods.
        2. T80UM1
          T80UM1 10 November 2014 12: 39
          0
          Inflation and devaluation are two different things. Inflation is the depreciation of money by increasing their quantity. devaluation depreciation of your money abroad. for example, you have made a bunch of goods that are not in demand, in theory, you printed money for it (providing with this product), but abroad you don’t need it, so it turns out the goods are not needed and money printed for it is a consequence: your money has become cheaper abroad, and inside the country there. Therefore, your first paragraph does not make sense.
          2) just the same decrease in the working-age population affects inflation, since consumption is growing (social payments to disabled and retired people), and production is falling. At the same time, unemployment may be lower than the equilibrium (in Russia there are just not enough workers) with high inflation
          4) for example, a stadium was built, but it is necessary to maintain it ... and in Sochi, for example, there is not such a large number of people that it would become self-supporting ... fixed costs were recaptured, for example, and when will you repay operating costs?
          5) and 6) you can see the return on investment, silicon valley or how much is profitable and what is not? amers have the main investment from private capital and not public ...
          7) you don’t provide yourself with food, since you have to look for import substitution, you don’t even make clothes by 5%
          8) affects the influx of currency very much
          1. alicante11
            10 November 2014 13: 46
            0
            for example, you made a bunch of goods that are not in demand, in theory you printed money for it (providing with this product), but abroad it is not needed


            So needed. And oil and gas and weapons. And goods are sold not only abroad, but also domestically.

            2) just the same decrease in the working-age population affects inflation, since consumption is growing


            If payments are made by printing money. We do not print money.

            4) for example, a stadium was built, but it is necessary to maintain it ... and in Sochi, for example, there is not such a large number of people that it would become self-supporting ... fixed costs were recaptured, for example, and when will you repay operating costs?


            You are confusing things. The cost of the stadium for the economy has already paid off. Because the builders who received them paid for the creation of building materials, i.e. creation of goods, which linked the allocated money. What does the money have to do with twice. And semi-finished products (construction materials) and the stadium itself, which costs money.
            Another thing is that the state may not return the invested money to the budget in the foreseeable future. But for the economy, i.e. inflation is all the same.

            5) and 6) you can see the return on investment, silicon valley or how much is profitable and what is not? amers have the main investment from private capital and not public ...


            Well, look ... And what's the difference, private or state capital, if it is not printed money, but from the collected taxes and fees?

            7) you don’t provide yourself with food, since you have to look for import substitution, you don’t even make clothes by 5%


            Firstly, we provide. Secondly, there are articles in food, such as spices, for example, which we do not produce. I AM
            This is indicated in the article.

            8) affects the influx of currency very much


            And what does the flow of currency and inflation have to do with it, if we do not print rubles and if the ruble is already underestimated?
  4. taseka
    taseka 10 November 2014 07: 36
    +4
    What's going on? They bring down economic sanctions, trying to create chaos and panic in the country, and ultimately the change of power to the power of pro-Western liberals who have long been laid under the United States.
    BUT ONLY THE NATION IS ONLY LEADING TO UNITING AND DEVELOPING THE DOMESTIC MARKET AND PRODUCTION, SEARCHING FOR NEW SALES MARKETS AND POLITICAL REFINING OF ALLIES AND PARTNERS! A friend is known in distress - here we are!
    1. 341712
      341712 10 November 2014 10: 17
      0
      Quote: taseka
      BUT ONLY THE NATION IS ONLY LEADING TO UNITING AND DEVELOPING THE DOMESTIC MARKET AND PRODUCTION, SEARCHING FOR NEW SALES MARKETS AND POLITICAL REFINING OF ALLIES AND PARTNERS! A friend is known in distress - here we are!


      I would say: A friend is known in FOOD! (in the broad sense of the word)))) This is to say that you can’t relax with the Chinese in any case! If the Chinese did not deceive someone in a day, the night will be bad ....
    2. alicante11
      10 November 2014 11: 21
      0
      I do not think too short-term action. You will be right only if Moskvomaydan happens before NG or in early January. And then the effect will come to naught.
  5. Zaus
    Zaus 10 November 2014 07: 37
    +2
    any citizen who succumbed to panic and went to buy dollars does more for Americans than all Central Bank officials put together

    The population is not to blame. It was the 90s, when the authorities fooled the people. Nobody believes it. Everyone is afraid that they will be robbed and "thrown" ... And so the article is not bad. happens
    1. fif21
      fif21 10 November 2014 09: 09
      +6
      Quote: ZAUS
      Well, if that’s what happens

      It happens a little bit wrong. Unlike the dollar, the ruble mass is finite. To start an attack on the ruble, you need at least several tens of millions of free rubles. Who can they have? At banks, state corporations, the state, companies of importers. Who benefits from a weak ruble? To the state! Oil prices have fallen, but the budget must be met! Banks live on interest on ruble loans, and they themselves take loans in foreign currency in the west, a cheap ruble is not profitable for them. Importers are not like suicides, imports are very expensive and demand is falling. And here are the exporters in chocolate, and our export is mainly raw gas and oil! So it turns out that the population is robbing again (lowering the standard of living) - the state, Gazprom and Rosneft.
      1. atalef
        atalef 10 November 2014 11: 50
        0
        Quote: fif21
        It happens a little bit wrong. Unlike the dollar, the ruble mass is finite

        Of course (100%) - only human life

        Quote: fif21
        To start an attack on the ruble, you need at least several tens of millions of free rubles

        Tens of millions - you probably are a joker, you don’t understand what amounts are being operated on, the Central Bank’s dollar interventions in one day (and this is to prevent the ruble from falling more than one ruble against the dollar) amounted to $ 2.7 billion (more than 100 billion rubles) --- in a day !!!
        And you say a few million.
        Quote: fif21
        So it turns out that the population is robbing again (lowering the standard of living) - the state, Gazprom and Rosneft

        Yes !
      2. alicante11
        10 November 2014 12: 24
        0
        The population is not to blame. There were 90s, when the authorities fooled the people.


        And I don’t blame. Just then you do not need to blame the Central Bank. He also does what he can.

        To start an attack on the ruble, you need at least several tens of millions of free rubles. Who can they have?


        It would be logical if the fall of the ruble were not so threatening, it is too dangerous to carry out such an operation for internal use.
        The attack on the ruble is from behind a hill.
    2. The comment was deleted.
    3. volodyk50
      volodyk50 10 November 2014 10: 19
      0
      The population is not to blame. It was the 90s, when the authorities fooled the people. Nobody believes it. Everyone is afraid that they will be robbed and "thrown" ... And so the article is not bad. happens

      And how do you know that now is not fooling?
      The article forgot to mention the end of the quantitative easing that the Fed conducted,
      about the fact that oil has fallen in price due to the fact that Libya has resumed export again, and now the market has a surplus of 1 million barrels. per day.
      The fact that, based on the foregoing, the recently adopted budget, already scarce, just does not fit into the programs laid down for 2015-2016.
      The fact that a business that has accumulated foreign currency loans at the beginning of the year, a business (naturally large) is in no hurry to repay them, creating a currency deficit in the market.
      The fact that the government is inactive to inject additional funds into the economy at the expense of your savings.
      Yes, and much more about ...
      1. alicante11
        10 November 2014 12: 29
        0
        The article forgot to mention the end of the quantitative easing that the Fed conducted,


        What difference does it make whether there is "softening" or not "softening"? The dollar is not backed by anything, it is a piece of paper. And by economic methods, it cannot grow by 40%.

        about the fact that oil has fallen in price due to the fact that Libya has resumed export again, and now the market has a surplus of 1 million barrels. per day.


        And what's the difference, what is the reason for the cheapening of oil?

        The fact that, based on the foregoing, the recently adopted budget, already scarce, just does not fit into the programs laid down for 2015-2016.


        And how does this affect the ruble against the dollar? Amer’s budget is not just scarce, but super-chronically deficient.
        1. atalef
          atalef 10 November 2014 12: 44
          0
          Quote: alicante11
          What difference does it make whether there is "softening" or not "softening"?


          They stopped typing it.

          Quote: alicante11
          The dollar is already not provided with anything, this is a piece of paper. And it cannot grow by 40% by economic methods.


          He is not, the ruble may lose

          Quote: alicante11
          And what's the difference, what is the reason for the cheapening of oil?


          Of course, the consequences are important.
          In Iran, Venezuela and Russia - problems, in the USA, Europe and even Israel - gasoline cheaper

          Quote: alicante11
          And how does this affect the ruble against the dollar?


          Simply, in the Russian Federation the ruble (roughly speaking) is 70% provided with oil revenues - oil is getting cheaper - the ruble is getting cheaper
          The formula is simple

          Quote: alicante11
          Amer’s budget is not just scarce, but super-chronically deficient.


          You confuse many things, namely

          The budget deficit of the US state budget for the fiscal year 2014, which ended on September 30, decreased by almost 29 percent compared to the previous fiscal year and amounted to 483,4 billion dollars or 2,8 percent of GDP. This was reported by Vesti with reference to data from the US Treasury Department.

          The level has been minimal since 2008. Then the budget deficit amounted to $ 459 billion, and as a percentage of GDP - since 2007 (1,1 percent of GDP). Last year’s result was the lowest since Barack Obama’s presidency.


          Noticed 2.8%, but in Russia?
          The government of the Russian Federation at a meeting on Thursday approved the bill on the federal budget for 2015 and the planning period of 2016 and 2017 with a maximum deficit for the next year of 0,6% of GDP

          RIA Novosti http://ria.ru/economy/20140918/1024615417.html#ixzz3Ienxm5Em


          And this with an oil price of 90 bucks and projected increases

          The budget provides for an increase in tariffs for rail transportation by 10% in 2015, by 5,5% and 4,5% in 2016 and 2017, respectively. Tariffs for electricity supplies to the population will be indexed for inflation last year, plus increased by 1%.


          but most importantly

          By 2017, it is planned to increase the volume of the Reserve Fund due to exchange rate differences, although according to the draft budget, new receipts are not expected. Now the Reserve Fund has 3,472 trillion rubles. Also, by the end of the three-year budget period, savings in the National Wealth Fund will increase, which currently reach 3,164 trillion rubles.


          Noticed a keyword - exchange rate difference?
          Now think about who removes the foam from the fall of the ruble.
          1. alicante11
            10 November 2014 12: 53
            0
            They stopped typing it.


            So he ALREADY costs nothing. And how long. What difference does it make, how many do not print zeros, nothing will change from this. From an economic point of view, of course.

            He is not, the ruble may lose


            Why? Given that the ruble is already underestimated, the ruble mass is small. Falling oil prices cannot give a 40% drop. What then?

            You confuse many things, namely


            So what? We have state reserves with more debts and a budget deficit. The United States has less. So in any case, we will cover the deficit without printing new money. where is the fall from?

            Noticed a keyword - exchange rate difference?
            Now think about who removes the foam from the fall of the ruble.


            Noticed for a long time. You are not the first to insist on this. I admit that while the fall of the ruble was calculated in units of percent (and the deficit is only 0,5% in your opinion), this could be blamed on the actions of the Russian authorities and exporters. But when the currency has lost half the value, it is already dangerous for the same government. They will not be substituted like that. They certainly will not be in the conditions of the Ukrainian crisis.
            1. atalef
              atalef 10 November 2014 14: 48
              0
              Quote: alicante11
              So he ALREADY costs nothing. And how long


              today - 45 rubles
              Quote: alicante11
              Why? Given that the ruble is already underestimated, the ruble mass is small. Falling oil prices cannot give a 40% drop. What then?

              The big picture
              Imagine you have 1 million, but the neighbor suddenly appeared the same, then you suddenly have troubles with debts (well, just urgent ones), and it turned out that both of you need bucks.
              A auction sale.
              Well, let's see how you fight and why suddenly you can buy bucks for a ruble less than yesterday.
              1. alicante11
                10 November 2014 16: 02
                +1
                today - 45 rubles


                Politically. But economically - nothing.

                You both need bucks.


                Gut, but tomorrow we’ll sell both bucks, or to whom I will repay the debts and again the ruble will return to its previous rate. This is economically correct.
  6. fomkin
    fomkin 10 November 2014 07: 47
    0
    The author should listen to M. Delyagin
  7. The comment was deleted.
  8. VNP1958PVN
    VNP1958PVN 10 November 2014 07: 48
    +1
    What are the forecasts? "Vang" is a thankless task

    Then why write. People are worried, they want to know ...
    1. Oleg NSK
      Oleg NSK 10 November 2014 08: 13
      +5
      People are worried, they want to know ...

      ... put the article + ... not the fact that this is exactly the case, but the explanation has the right to exist ... indeed many factors indicate a similar development of the situation ...
      ... but in general, it would be true if people from the country's leadership explained that they probably know what is happening ... with a really accessible language for the general population ... and inapplicable in Russian words, very often imported (incomprehensible meaning) words ... for example - a voucher, if people were then told that this is their share of Russia ... then for a bottle of vodka, even for an alcoholic to lure him, it would be extremely difficult
      ... do not believe the analysts from the economy ... they earn not on the truth, but on lies.
      P.S. If you are asked or forced to do something that you do not understand ... then you are being deceived
      1. 97110
        97110 10 November 2014 10: 05
        0
        Quote: Oleg NSK
        voucher, if people were then told that this is their share of Russia ...

        In fact, Chubais said. And he also spoke about two Volgas. Who listened to him? And remember the story about the million dollar banknote that 2 beggars could not exchange.
      2. The comment was deleted.
      3. alicante11
        10 November 2014 12: 32
        0
        P.S. If you are asked or forced to do something that you do not understand ... then you are being deceived


        There is a more interesting definition of your thesis :).
        "If you do not see a sucker in the scheme, then you are a sucker in the scheme" (c).
    2. The comment was deleted.
    3. alicante11
      10 November 2014 12: 31
      0
      Then why write. People are worried, they want to know ...


      At least not to drive a wave again on the government and the Central Bank. Well, of course, I wanted to hear constructive criticism.
  9. Berved
    Berved 10 November 2014 07: 48
    +1
    Quote: MolGro
    ...
    To oblige trade organizations to place on the price tags (labels) of goods produced in the territory of the Russian Federation, the Russian tricolor (colors of the state flag)
    ...

    What for? The flag of the country is the SYMBOL. It’s not worth it to place it next to the price tags, as well as svidomye you can get to wrapping in a flag and any other pornography with the symbols of the state.
    1. 97110
      97110 10 November 2014 10: 08
      +1
      Quote: BerVed
      What for? The flag of the country is a SYMBOL

      That's it. Don't be lazy to look at the manufacturer's label. It says "Riga" - it means enemy sprats. We are looking for Kaliningrad.
  10. Enot-poloskun
    Enot-poloskun 10 November 2014 07: 55
    +7
    I agree with the author of the article.

    And let's print ... dollars! Goznak has a lot of things that we can do, and dollars can be poured into Africa and exchanged for gold there.
    1. 341712
      341712 10 November 2014 10: 21
      +1
      Quote: Enot-poloskun
      Enot-poloskun (1) Today, 07: 55
      I agree with the author of the article.

      And let's print ... dollars! Goznak has a lot of things that we can do, and dollars can be poured into Africa and exchanged for gold there.


      And can I take them to Africa))))) laughing
      1. Enot-poloskun
        Enot-poloskun 10 November 2014 18: 28
        0
        I do not believe! (c) Stanislavsky.
  11. By
    By 10 November 2014 08: 02
    0
    If in the 90s most of the country's leadership with "advisers" thought how to get benefits faster than others, until the country collapsed, now the leadership is thinking how to get benefits constantly and stably for themselves and their children, and for this Russia must sell resources and goods on world markets. But no one needs competitors, and besides, competitors are trying to establish their own rules. So this is just a competition in non-competitive ways.
  12. android1
    android1 10 November 2014 08: 02
    +1
    It is necessary to speak to the President on TV and ask the population to change the dolars to the yuan. Then the gold reserves of the gold reserves and those that passed the population to give the Chinese to buy oil from the UAE, China returns us in RMB and we put them in gold reserves ...
    1. 23 region
      23 region 10 November 2014 09: 38
      0
      Quote: androiid1
      It is necessary to speak to the President on TV and ask the population to change dollars to yuan

      I remember one already spoke, promised to put a hand under the train.
      Looks like the train did not come.
    2. The comment was deleted.
  13. sledge
    sledge 10 November 2014 08: 22
    +2
    http://worldcrisis.ru/crisis/1692176 Вот очень интересный, на мой взгляд доклад С.Глазьева, в котором академик отразил все способы давления США на не угодные страны. А в целом статья не плохая. Атору респект.
  14. Grbear
    Grbear 10 November 2014 08: 32
    +2
    I, too, am not an economist in the field of foreign exchange transactions and will risk reposting my message in which there is a slightly different vision of what is happening with the ruble.
    I don’t know, but P, ​​while talking about the speculative component in oil prices, didn’t say about the speculative component in the currency. And she is there. Someone brought a lot of rubles to the stock exchange. The whole question is who is this?

    I do not exclude that this could be a conscious multi-faceted operation. But again the question: in whose interests?

    Options and sequence:

    - in the context of sanctions, enterprises do not need the dollar as a means of payment and lending (except in cases of servicing and repayment of foreign debts). This means that the owners of the currency must "dump" it. In theory, the exchange rate should fall, but this does not happen. But who is the main owner of the currency? right - banks and monopolies. And it was they who organized the overvalued rate to obtain super-profits (they gave the country candy wrappers, received a lot of rubles, which, nevertheless, were backed up by something). Further - their translation into yuan or Singapore dollar.

    - The Central Bank, by limiting funds for "maintaining" the ruble, supports the agiotage expectations of the population, which, "hoping", buys currency at a high rate, i.e. returns the Central Bank of losses from buying currency from monopolies. Having reached a certain level of "saturation" of the population with the dollar supply, the Central Bank may freeze or collapse the dollar exchange rate (there are enough ways - from a "fixed" exchange rate or intervention to restrictions on currency circulation).

    The result is not comforting. These 30 ... 40 percent growth rate, in fact, veiled inflation, shifted to the population. Maybe not the richest part of it, but nonetheless.
  15. muhomor
    muhomor 10 November 2014 08: 41
    0
    The state needs to participate more boldly and more actively in economic life. Here in China "damned commies" were able to provide the highest rate of development.
  16. Echelon
    Echelon 10 November 2014 08: 46
    +5
    The first normal article about the floating ruble. No tantrums and wringing hands. Everything is correctly written here, the exchange game is conducted in one direction - loosening the ruble. for. that it would be unprofitable to sell our energy resources for rubles, because only we will start trading for rubles. the collapse will begin at the dollar and the euro and others will panic. It is correctly written here that the reserves of rubles from exchange players are not endless, and those ruble ups against bi-currency are just attempts to buy rubles in order to throw them on the market. A panic is artificially created among the population and buying up currency at points of exchange, we ourselves contribute to raising its exchange rate. Endlessly, this game cannot and will not continue.
    Here, the game of the West to lower the ruble is very clearly and unequivocally visible, which would undermine our economy and lower the government's confidence rating, so that later through the controlled media it would begin to ferment in the minds of Russians.
    The only thing I would wish for our government is to keep the price of gasoline, then there will be no increase in prices for other goods, because the fuel sector is not under our control and it must be very tightly kept in hand. For as they say in one bearded joke "Whatever happens in the world - raise the price of gasoline."
    1. atalef
      atalef 10 November 2014 12: 07
      -1
      Quote: Echelon
      The first normal article about the floating ruble


      Sorry, the Deletan article and written by a person not only quite far from the economy, but also using figures that are exclusively in his imagination
      for example


      But the mining sector in Russia last year accounted for only about 10% of GDP.

      What does it matter if more than 70% consists of taxes on oil and resources?
      Therefore, even assuming that all production is oil and that it has fallen in price by 2 times, the fall of the ruble against the dollar could amount to only 5%.

      Why ?
      On the example of Chinese investment in gas pipelines, one can talk about the influx of capital into the real sector. Thus, the real sector of the economy associated with commodity circulation is growing.

      How if GDP falls?
      etc

      Quote: Echelon
      It is correctly written here that the reserves of rubles on exchange players are not infinite

      Even as endless.
      You do not understand that the main buyers of foreign exchange in the market are Russian banks and state corporations (to which Western loans must be repaid)
      Quote: Echelon
      Endlessly, this game cannot and will not continue.

      Well, everything has an end (when the market is balanced), the question is when
      Although the monm to 50 rubles, the dollar will not be allowed to reach. The Central Bank will remove the last trousers from shopping mall 50 rubles - this is a psychological milestone - after this, a panic (first of all among the people) can be taken out of rubles and buying up dollars. And the dough in the population - a lot
      Quote: Echelon
      Here, the game of the West to lower the ruble is very clearly and unequivocally visible

      Of course, speculators play, but not in such volumes.
      The main ones are Russian banks
      Quote: Echelon
      The only thing I would wish our government, keep the price of gas, then there will be no increase in prices for other goods

      Why ? Won in Venezuela, gasoline is cheaper than water, and prices are rising
      Quote: Echelon
      , because our fuel sector is not controlled

      I dare to recall that the largest oil company, ROSNEFT, is a state-owned one.
  17. Performance
    Performance 10 November 2014 08: 52
    0
    I am not an economist, I am an engineer, teacher, entrepreneur,


    And, unfortunately, the author draws conclusions based on other people's conclusions - it's like "I'm not a doctor", he will compile a diagnosis from the conclusions of other "doctors"! My claim is not to the author, thanks to him for his interesting opinion! This is our misfortune, because now so many people work when a "non-specialist" draws conclusions from the conclusions of other such "specialists"!

    In order to understand what is going on with the ruble, you need to know, for example, the real volumes of gold and foreign exchange reserves and our funds, where they work at any given time (are they available now, maybe they are, but we will not be able to use them, for example, their next Anna Chapman effectively posted somewhere), and this data is classified with us! As well as where they are placed - we only have access to the final "declarations" of the very "transparent" Central Bank and the Ministry of Finance. It's not worth talking about Rosstat data at all, the indicators are manipulated every year, comparing them with other "manipulated" earlier.
    1. Erg
      Erg 10 November 2014 09: 33
      +2
      You write everything correctly. Much economic data is not available for free use. And yet, I liked the article. The abstruse explanations of the situation by "specialists" are already causing bitter laughter. (I would like to see how they would explain the situation in the country to Iosif Vissarionovich. "Eloquence" would have vanished as if by hand). The author writes clearly. I believe. From personal experience I will say. Remember vouchers? And so - all the workers of the Norilsk combine received this. Someone invested in the "business" (Mikrodin, Peter the First, etc., remember such fossils?). Others, who understood that this was just another deception, decided to simply sell the vouchers, so that at least "a tit in hand". I also sold all three (for my wife, myself and my child). It turned out less than my monthly salary (this is the share of three people in the NMMC). It was possible to sell to hucksters in the only market in the city. Came, walked around, found out the price, sold it. So only after 10 years I learned that 90% of sellers-buyers are mercenaries (future owners of the plant) who "keep the price". Loch comes, sees the "real" price and sells. Basically they sold, it was not easy then. And only then, after a couple of years, people will learn that vouchers can be invested in the shares of the plant ... What was worth in those days to fool a simple Soviet hard worker. Now we see "owners" and "holders of large blocks of shares" on the screens. What can I say ... Everything is fair ... So I agree with the author. This entire dollar exchange rate is completely artificially regulated by the FRS (in fact, by transnational corporations). Good morning everyone! Let's break through hi
    2. alicante11
      10 November 2014 12: 38
      0
      And, unfortunately, the author draws conclusions based on other people's conclusions - it's like "I'm not a doctor", he will compile a diagnosis from the conclusions of other "doctors"!


      And who is to blame that the "doctors" cannot prescribe drugs? I have to self-medicate. By the way, I have been coping with real diseases without the help of doctors for 20 years.

      At the expense of data, none of the analysts has it. And whoever has it will not believe it anyway.
      1. Performance
        Performance 10 November 2014 18: 06
        0
        If they couldn’t and didn’t write out - this is one story, but here we have klystir, then iodine - and then it will disappear!
  18. Stalnov I.P.
    Stalnov I.P. 10 November 2014 09: 08
    +2
    Why the ruble fell and the sanctions became possible, I’ll say simply - these are the fruits of the mediocre, dumb, and sometimes criminal policies of the government and the government, especially its economic bloc, all other prerequisites make up a maximum of 10-15 %% of all the events taking place. The complete imbalance of the economy, the government and the government do not know what to do with the ruble and how to stop it from falling for more than 2 months, economic representatives of the government and government say and convince us that tomorrow the ruble will stabilize, but this does not happen, inflation is rising, prices are rising products and services that primarily hit the general population. The President takes a strange position, there is a complete failure of the economic bloc, all the actions or omissions of the authorities affect tens of millions of Russian citizens, but for the worse, there is simply impoverishment of the common people, which is interesting, the authorities and the government have sharply raised themselves in late 2013 and early 2014 salaries, almost twice, it turns out one paw suck, the other eat caviar. All talk comes down to simple chatter and an empty promise, all this neoliberal course of the economic bloc and two Central Bank ladies leads to the collapse of the economy, small and medium-sized businesses, especially those connected with the exchange rate of the currency, are falling apart. Correctly, Russia has two enemies fools and roads, it seems to me now the first are much more dangerous.
    1. Erg
      Erg 10 November 2014 09: 46
      0
      The President does not take a "strange" position, as you put it. The President is not elected, he is appointed to office by certain circles. It is the same all over the world. Therefore, the president is very limited in his actions "by the interests of real voters." That's how we live hi
    2. zzz
      zzz 10 November 2014 09: 50
      0
      Quote: I.P. Stalnov.
      The President takes a strange position, there is a complete failure of the economic bloc, all actions or omissions of the authorities affect tens of millions of Russian citizens, but not on the best side, there is simply an impoverishment of the common people,


      An urgent need to put the new Primakov at the head of the government. The main thing is that he be a patriot and gain a team of professionals.
  19. Quantum
    Quantum 10 November 2014 09: 13
    +4
    After World War II, Stalin instructed economists to calculate the course.
    dollar to ruble. It was calculated that approximately 1d.: 15 rubles Stalin wrote: 4 rubles is enough! And nothing bad happened. Not a single economist today can explain why in the backward countries, the dollar and the local
    currency have a ratio of 1: 1,1: 3, etc. Rather, they mutter, which is beneficial
    have a ratio of 1: 30, or 1: 40, such as it is beneficial to resource exporters.
    What is really going on? The outflow of dollar profits abroad, and without taxes. Academician S. Glazyev called astronomical
    amounts in trillion dollars! It is clear that to stop such a robbery, someone is not profitable.
  20. Steel loli
    Steel loli 10 November 2014 09: 19
    +1
    Just look at the “Made with us” website and you will see that new enterprises are being created in Russia

    the author, I see, has re-read bedtime stories. It is enough to look at the statistics to see that the number of industrial enterprises in Russia has been steadily falling for fifteen years in a row, there is only an increase in "administrative" units, raw material companies and service companies.
    1. alicante11
      10 November 2014 12: 40
      0
      Maybe you can give these statistics? The breakdown of GDP by industry does not agree with you. By the way, "raw material companies" are also a real sector of the economy. Irreplaceable though.
  21. Detlolka
    Detlolka 10 November 2014 09: 21
    +4
    I agree that the ruble to be felled specifically
  22. fif21
    fif21 10 November 2014 09: 26
    0
    Quote: Echelon
    Here, the game of the West to lower the ruble is very clearly and unequivocally visible
    Maybe you know who in the west has accumulated so many rubles? Who in Europe and America trades with us for rubles? CBR conducting currency interventions - reduces the money supply in the country? No! With this money, dollars and euros are purchased again. If it is not correct me. Tell me how much ruble weight decreased in the month of October?
    1. alicante11
      10 November 2014 12: 43
      +1
      Maybe you know who in the west has accumulated so many rubles?


      I cannot specify the address. But they are conducting from the State Department. And rubles were bought by both "our" NGOs for dollar, and foreign banks in preparation for the attack. If it is necessary to carry out an attack, then it is quite possible to buy rubles. Moreover, the volume there is not that great in comparison with the main ruble mass. it is only necessary to drop the exchange, and not all the money rotates there.
  23. ilya_oz
    ilya_oz 10 November 2014 10: 10
    0
    People with their panic and buying up currency only worsen the situation, further weakening the ruble.
    1. Mugs
      Mugs 10 November 2014 10: 41
      0
      In 2008 - early 2009 I often heard this phrase, people themselves are supposedly to blame that the dollar is growing. Now again. And how many ordinary people like you and I will buy up dollars?
  24. Mama_Cholli
    Mama_Cholli 10 November 2014 10: 40
    0
    In fact, a cheap ruble is beneficial to us. But only if it is a world currency, otherwise everything will be very bad.
    Pisi: In this situation, I dare to assume that again, at the expense of the Russian population, they will solve all problems.
    While we will sell our products / raw materials for paper, we will feed the whole world, and we ourselves will never be successful.
    1. Zoldat_A
      Zoldat_A 10 November 2014 22: 12
      +3
      Quote: Mama_Cholli
      In this situation, I dare to assume that again, at the expense of the Russian population, they will solve all the problems.
      While we will sell our products / raw materials for paper, we will feed the whole world

      And, let me ask, at whose expense we have solved the financial problems of hucksters the last 25 years? At whose expense Amerostan last 90 years? At whose expense is the banquet in Europe and Ukraine (whose lives paid for?)?

      We need a huge political will and steel balls in our pants, so that tomorrow, for example, we can sell gas to Geyropa for rubles. Consumer goods in Chin should be taken for the yuan, and for sheepskin coats in Turkey for TRY. A raccoon in Russia simply prohibit free walking. Do not plant for him, just so that there is nowhere to go. Hundreds of billions of raccoons will fly into the market tomorrow, and the patched-rolled rubber-technical product No. 2 called the Fed will be very uncomfortable. And with her and the whole country that feeds on her.
  25. Captain45
    Captain45 10 November 2014 10: 47
    0
    Back in September, an interesting article on currency came across, I will give a part:
    Prepared for the currency jumps ... For six months, the Russians bought $ 32,5 billion in foreign cash, but they did not carry it to the banks ...
    2014 »September» 16 »
    According to the latest data from the Central Bank, in January – June of the 2014, the Russian population bought $ 32,5 billion of foreign currency in cash from banks - this is 43% more than in the same period last year ($ 24,6 billion). But this is not characteristic - the exchanged dollars remain for the most part “under the mattresses” of Russians: foreign currency deposits grow much more slowly than the volume of dollar purchases by the population. Since the beginning of the year, the volume of such deposits has increased by only 6,2% ...
    The most active Russians bought the currency in January 2014, when almost all the currencies of large emerging economies sank and the dollar jumped from 33 to almost 35 rubles, and also in March, when Crimea joined Russia. In January, individuals bought $ 6,3 billion of currency from banks (against $ 3,7 billion in January of the 2013), and in March this year - $ 7,4 billion against $ 4 billion in March of the 2013. In May and June of 2014, individuals purchased from banks more than $ 10 billion of foreign currency (against $ 8 billion in the same months of last year), the latest figures can be explained by seasonal tourist needs of Russians.
    At the same time, citizens store the purchased cash “under the pillow”, they carried currency in deposits, but much less actively. This is also evidenced by the statistics of the Central Bank: at 1 January 2014, the volume of foreign currency deposits reached 3 trillion. rubles, on 1 of May 2014 of the year - 3,3 trillion., on 1 of July - 3,2 trillion. (see infographic).
    It is possible that in the near future, citizens will again rush into exchangers - to change the Russian currency to American. Yesterday, the dollar reached another historic maximum - 38,03 rubles (the Central Bank takes the official rate “for tomorrow”, however, from the mark 11.30 Moscow time on the Moscow Exchange, on 16 September it amounted to 37,99 rubles), and the population, as you know, buys dollars at the peak of their value . For example, when the American currency reached its maximum in 2011 (32,89 rubles), the population bought $ 22,9 billion from banks in January – June, which is 37,6% more than in the same period of 2010
    http://www.discred.ru/go?http://izvestia.ru/news/576726#ixzz3DQCp3cIj
    I remember reading about the economic breakthrough of South Korea in the 80s. So there the government appealed to the population with an appeal to surrender to the state the available gold and currency under state guarantees. The population followed the call, thus the government, having concentrated in its hands a large amount of gold and currency, invested funds in the country's economy, thus ensuring the growth of industrial production and goods. Due to which South Korea and broke into the number of world leaders in industrial production - "Asian tigers", and the government gradually paid off with the population for the gold and currency taken. The same was in the USSR during the war: "Everything for the front, everything for victory!" Now this option of raising the economy is apparently unrealistic, although who knows? Suddenly a war? Let's remember the Motherland? Will we help ourselves or shall we smoke on the sidelines bashfully?
    But the Central Bank, there is one sentence, in the style of Peter the Great: on Lobny Place, publicly chop off Nabiulina’s head and hang her deputies on the Kremlin wall and the dollar will cost 10 rubles. I.V. Stalin in 1952 said that the dollar would cost 4r .50 cop and he stood, despite all the world's financial troubles.
  26. Kyrgyz
    Kyrgyz 10 November 2014 11: 02
    0
    I categorically do not understand what people need, the ruble was released for free swimming, it all costs as much as it is in demand among market participants, if you earn in rubles and consume what is produced in rubles, then it’s okay if you don’t take measures. Why is everyone yelling at the Central Bank to get rid of reserves? He needs reserves to cover debts in foreign currency. The more calculations will be further made in rubles, the more expensive it will become and vice versa, this is what everyone asked for, but why no one wants to realize that it will have some costs. Oil fell by 20%, which is also a risk that the inflow of foreign currency will decrease, but there are foreign currency debts that must be repaid in foreign currency, which means there is still some minus the ruble. Industry and a high-value-added product to diversify the flow of currency is a good thing, but it is a minimum of 15 years and they have not passed yet. Yes, it’s stupid to diversify sources of obtaining foreign currency when there is a problem of currency dependence, in principle, what difference does it make where you get coke if you need a coke without it, you need to get rid of dependence and not look for new outlets for the supplier, you can’t do this without breaking. The ruble should become a currency, even if not the first but in the top five, but against it all will need to be understood.
  27. Dwarfik
    Dwarfik 10 November 2014 11: 34
    0
    Quote: Mahmut
    Strange things are happening. The devaluation of the ruble is huge, but there is practically no inflation. So the ruble issue does not occur. And the increase in the exchange rate can be explained by the flight of the already stolen capital of individuals, frightened by sanctions. There are not enough currencies for everyone, so the rate is growing. The Central Bank calmly observes this and does the right thing. If capital is fleeing from Russia, then let it flee with maximum losses for their owners. Spending the state’s gold and foreign currency savings to mitigate thieves' losses is stupid and immoral. Bravo Nabiulina!

    It is absolutely true, the "partners" know perfectly well the scheme of the Central Bank's work, and therefore they overwhelm the course so that the Central Bank would make endless interventions and burn all the gold reserves. Correctly, they sharply limited! For goods produced, packaged and sold on the territory of the Russian Federation, side by side with a green candy wrapper! And a low ruble is another protection against external sanctions for our importers, they cover the sanctions by the difference in exchange rates.
  28. ilyich
    ilyich 10 November 2014 11: 56
    0
    But the mining sector in Russia last year accounted for only about 10% of GDP

    Sorry, but where can I see / confirm this percentage? it turns out that we are a huge non-raw material power, one production and high-tech enterprises.
    because if it’s not 10%, but about 47%, it seems like according to the latest data - then personally, according to my calculations, when oil prices fall by a quarter - we should have 40-45r / dollar (taking into account the cost of borrowing due to sanctions)
    and if so, then all subsequent conclusions in the article are bullshit. although yes, the mechanism is described correctly with respect to
    1. ilyich
      ilyich 10 November 2014 12: 12
      0
      but I found it - http://ria.ru/infografika/20130912/958932396.html
    2. Kyrgyz
      Kyrgyz 10 November 2014 12: 31
      0
      Quote: ilyich
      it turns out that we are a huge non-raw material power, one production and high-tech enterprises.

      The term raw material in relation to Russia implies export income, in the total economy the extraction takes much less than in export, just what we do is valued mainly because it is mined, and the rest has enough for everyone
    3. alicante11
      10 November 2014 12: 59
      0
      Sorry, but where can I see / confirm this percentage? it turns out that we are a huge, non-raw material power,


      Take the sectoral structure of the GDP of the Russian Federation, I just typed this phrase in Yandex and received several links, which I now do not remember using.

      At the expense of the "non-resource country". The problem is somewhat different. With a relatively small percentage of the country's GDP, resources play an important role in the budget formation due to the fact that their value contains a very large percentage of excise taxes, duties, etc. Therefore, the drop in oil is very painful for the budget. Although not so long ago I saw the government report on the increase in the size of the NWF. So, although we are a resource country, we are not so lost.
  29. ando_bor
    ando_bor 10 November 2014 12: 22
    0
    What is happening with the currency is not clear, yesterday I bought doors and laminate in a new apartment,
    prices, asked the seller for more than a year, the doors are Belarusian, the laminate is Chinese,
    next to the French lies the same thing.
    1. Kyrgyz
      Kyrgyz 10 November 2014 12: 34
      +2
      Quote: ando_bor
      What is happening with the currency is not clear, yesterday I bought doors and laminate in a new apartment,
      prices, asked the seller for more than a year, the doors are Belarusian, the laminate is Chinese,
      next to the French lies the same thing.

      An old purchase, rewriting to a new price tag is pointless; the goods will hang and rent must be paid now, and they are selling cheaper than they have to buy
  30. Dwarfik
    Dwarfik 10 November 2014 12: 56
    0
    and here is the confirmation of the policy of the Central Bank
    http://news.mail.ru/economics/20088797/?frommail=1
  31. Dan Slav
    Dan Slav 10 November 2014 13: 27
    -2
    Won the Central Bank canceled dual-currency basket and the corridor. Surrendered shorter than the Central Bank, as this basket was stolen from him.
    On a simple basis, these fucking professionals signed in complete unsuitability.
    And any theories can be screwed up. Especially here.
    Here the project itself was created for the release of steam and pride in "our country".
    Fontanka reports that the CBR predicts an increase in capital outflows from Russia
    ___________________________________________________
    The Central Bank of the Russian Federation in the “Scenarios of macroeconomic development and monetary policy of Russia in 2015-2017” according to the basic scenario predicts an increase in capital outflow in 2015 to $ 99 billion.
    It was previously expected that in 2015 capital outflow from Russia would not exceed $ 35 billion.
    According to the regulator, by the end of the current year, the outflow of capital will amount to $ 128 billion. In 2016, $ 60 billion will "leave" Russia, in 2017 - $ 38 billion.
    ___________________________________________________
    Outflows will decrease, as dollars will simply disappear in the country. There will be nothing to flow. There will be nothing to steal. The problem will be solved by itself. )))
  32. huivrotmodery
    huivrotmodery 10 November 2014 14: 52
    -2
    something always happens with the ruble. Because the economy does not work, high-tech industries are zero, the main source of income is the export of oil and gas.
  33. The comment was deleted.
    1. atalef
      atalef 10 November 2014 15: 31
      0
      Quote: Janislav
      Stig / that's enough / STESA! We saw the idle economy! I'm on the lookout for us! Don't you see, what a pre'ahme, when the oil price was brought down! Think of it! If in the 80s Viy byakhte devalued rubles, directly dollars, now the USSR, SEV, and the Warsaw Pact, they beat them! And half of Europe is more and more obiche! Stop complaining! Although...


      It would be a grind, or again give the Kemsku parish.
    2. atalef
      atalef 10 November 2014 15: 31
      0
      Quote: Janislav
      Stig / that's enough / STESA! We saw the idle economy! I'm on the lookout for us! Don't you see, what a pre'ahme, when the oil price was brought down! Think of it! If in the 80s Viy byakhte devalued rubles, directly dollars, now the USSR, SEV, and the Warsaw Pact, they beat them! And half of Europe is more and more obiche! Stop complaining! Although...


      It would be a grind, or again give the Kemsku parish.
  34. Enot-poloskun
    Enot-poloskun 10 November 2014 18: 30
    +1
    Today, the dollar fell ... After Putin met with Obama. VV must have made an offer that was hard to refuse!
  35. 16112014nk
    16112014nk 10 November 2014 19: 14
    -1
    The ruble is being felled specifically to fill the budget, from which they will then pay compensation in accordance with the "Rotenberg law" to thieves from the Russian "elite".
  36. Messiah
    Messiah 10 November 2014 19: 35
    -1
    Citizens do not understand why the refinancing rate is growing in Russia, but falling all over the world? It is not clear why the ruble against the dollar is suddenly falling and when will it end? Let's figure it out. Let's start with the first, the refinancing rate, which the Central Bank once again raised, what is the reason and how is it formed? In this regard, it must be explained that the discount rate (refinancing rate) of the Central Bank cannot be lower than the LIBOR rate (0,5-6,5%) since it is not a resident of the Russian Federation, plus the benefit of the Central Bank and insurance costs and the franchise cost (?) For using the Ruble like a currency! (this is plus 2-4%). Moreover, it must be added that this rate (refinancing) is the profit of the 2 founders of the mega-regulator of the monetary system of Russia, the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, or rather, the Central Bank of the Russian Federation (established by the Central Bank and the Government of the Russian Federation) of which 50% of the income of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation (not a resident of the Russian Federation, regulated by the laws of New York!), and 50% is the income of another founder, the Government of the Russian Federation, here it must be added that the Central Bank OJSC, half of its 50% income, leaves the Central Bank of the Russian Federation for its current needs, thus 75% of total revenue goes to the budget of the Russian Federation. (And only since 2006!). Since 2013, the Central Bank introduced the concept of “key rate”, at which the Central Bank plans to provide funds to the banking market of the Russian Federation on its own. Today, the Central Bank “only fulfills such an order” of the Government of the Russian Federation on “placing into legal circulation” of the ruble equivalent of foreign currency earnings received by the Government of the Russian Federation from exporters and sold to the Central Bank itself. In the future, the “key rate” should replace the refinancing rate, which the Central Bank plans to abandon in principle.
  37. Messiah
    Messiah 10 November 2014 19: 38
    0
    Strange as it may seem, everything is confusing, it turns out that the Government prefers to receive several tens of billions of rubles in the form of 75% of this rate than several tens of trillions in the form of taxes on economic growth, if this rate is reduced to the level of the Fed and the ECB! (0 - 0,5%). A reasonable question - why? Yes, because the Russian Federation does not have its own currency. Ruble is not a resident of Russia, - Central Bank of Russia! The ruble as a currency - the Government and citizens of the Russian Federation, are used on a franchise! That is, we pay the Central Bank for using its private property - the Ruble! And yet, the maximum total amount of ruble money supply M2 in the Russian Federation, which may be in circulation, is not tied to the total balance sheets (assets) of residents of the Russian Federation, but actually to the size of the gold and foreign exchange reserves of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, as the owner and manager of the monetary unit and the only mega-regulator of the banking and financial system of the Russian Federation (!), it is determined by it as the size of its gold and currency assets, multiplied by the value of the bi-currency basket determined by it, and the working (aggregate) ruble mass according to MXN UMX is determined by the Central Bank on the basis of its and all foreign currency assets of residents of the Russian Federation, and the Government of the Russian Federation has practically no direct influence on the money supply, M3 in the Russian Federation is not considered and is not used at all! she was left to the Fed to print dollars! Exchange rates and corridors of their value are actually set by the Central Bank OJSC on the basis of agreements with its co-owner - the US Federal Reserve, and the Central Bank of the Russian Federation LLC (founders: 4% -OAO CB RF and 50% Government of the Russian Federation), headed by Ms. Nabiulina, in fact, a liability management company merely executes and controls these arrangements. Although there are nuances when the Government urgently needs money, for example, to the Crimea, the “defense industry”, “social network”, “bridges to the Crimea”, catastrophes in the housing and communal services and other unplanned expenses, they turn to the Central Bank and the Central Bank “slightly let the ruble go,” and 50 dollar (euro), prints and issues it, not according to 1 - 30, but 40 - 40 rubles, that's all, "market and inflation, you understand!". The layout where 50 $ = 1rub. or as it is now, 1 rubles ... or it will be equal to 45р, for the Central Bank, no difference, the number of rubles will always be equal to the number of dollars available. The Russian ruble is pegged to the petrodollar, which means that fluctuations in the cost of oil (or rather the entire export component) also lead to exchange rate fluctuations.
  38. Messiah
    Messiah 10 November 2014 19: 42
    -1
    For example: the income and expenses of the budget of the Russian Federation were planned, when the oil price was $ 100, - since the budget is in rubles, let's say that the figure is 3700 rubles (exchange rate of $ 1 = 37 rubles) of income and expenses. (Social sector, defense industry and etc., etc. and additionally on Crimea and Novorossia ...) But then, in Washington, they wanted to "spoil the rating" of V. Putin and with the help of US pressure on OPEC, oil began to stand at $ 80, which means the budget RF 2960 rubles. with the same exchange rate, - 37 p \ $, where can the Government take the difference between the planned income and expenses and reality? (3700 -2960 = 740 rubles) And nowhere, the issuer of the ruble is the Central Bank of the Russian Federation! So we need to "ask" the Central Bank, where to take them and give them (put into circulation) to the Government "! The Central Bank, in turn, can "print" only as many rubles as it has currency, which means it is necessary to "release the rate", up to 48 p \ $ - $ 80 x 48 rubles. = 3840 RUB! Budget expenses have been covered and a little left for Novorossiya, are there any more questions? In addition, the ruble / currency rate for the Central Bank, as a branch of the Federal Reserve System, is also a political instrument of pressure on the Russian government! And it is also worth remembering that the legislation of the Russian Federation does not at all consider the economic period for more than a year! How is it in the country to plan and finance something if there is no legal basis? In addition, since there is external currency regulation in the country, political events directly affect the state of economic life - we are friends with the "owner", we have "silence, grace and you can steal", they balked a little - they pull on a leash, it is not good to wear a muzzle it turns out and "no one dares to bludgeon stupid bears, otherwise not only the leash and the head will be torn off!" and when they start to growl, then you can slap the leash and give the Chief - honey! "
  39. Messiah
    Messiah 10 November 2014 19: 53
    -1
    As for the withdrawal of money abroad, everything is thought out and calculated, and strict accounting and planning is being kept! The entire Russian economic and financial and political system was built in the 90s as a source of refinancing of the West, which does not have any independence .... it's just that all this is hidden in the florid and ambiguous legislation written by Langley .... And nothing has changed! patriots, you can always stop by pressing on a sore spot - "personal pocket". Sposov - the sea!
  40. The comment was deleted.
  41. Messiah
    Messiah 10 November 2014 20: 09
    -1
    Even Sigmund Freud said, - "The masses never knew the thirst for truth. They demand illusions without which they cannot live. Most people really do not want freedom, because it implies responsibility, and most people are afraid of responsibility" ... ..
  42. Scorpio
    Scorpio 10 November 2014 20: 34
    +1
    Rave. I could understand the reasoning that oil is being moved down to salt us. But what do we get the ruble ... fire me. Well, who needs such a song besides their own? Import rises automatically. Its inefficient production immediately becomes competitive both at home and abroad. Again, you can raise the price of gasoline or gas once again, hiding behind the growth rate !!!

    In fact, for us the fall of the ruble is good, you see, the economy will pull up a bit. another question - our economy is not just not efficient, but archineffective !!! labor productivity is lower than the plinth, so for another 1 working bunch of dependents in the form of officials, security officials, employees of various ranks, not to mention children and pensioners. (if the latter should be cherished in every possible way and spend more on them, then the first group of comrades should be reduced to 15% of the capable population and deprived of benefits and preferences).

    So before the ruble depreciated, any goods released from the bourgeois in retail at our place cost at least one and a half times more expensive than theirs. The bureaucrats, usually bought directly at stores abroad, therefore planned to cut freebies for the rest of the population, who were not able to travel somewhere, but who already had the Internet, and who mastered international purchases on-line. Now, in theory, the problem can be solved - if one nuance is taken into account - to increase the efficiency of trade and production. The course has grown, retail products have caught up. You can, in theory, tweak the costs of delivery and sale (for this you need to change tax administration and attitude to business, plus business to learn how to count costs) - and now we are no longer with them, but they are buying Chinese goods from us on online sites. Let taxes be minimal for virtual stores, nevertheless they are. That means a penny is dripping from the back. Provided that the registration at the store is Russian, and the offshores waved a pen. And the Russian Post begins to deal with business - by postal shipments, and not by selling stewed meat or accepting payments from old-time pensioners.

    To fight corruption, it is enough to chop off the state-controlled cashing market. Plus to make the judicial system work. It is not the hand that washes the hand, but "the thief should be in prison!" The problem is big, because almost everything is soiled. You need willpower, and probably a complete amnesty for a specific date.

    Again, this is my thought, it’s not necessary to look for the guilty now, it is necessary to look for opportunities for development and income. Now they are and there are many of them. I would make the most of the opportunity to reduce the ruble exchange rate with a tough fight against inflation on ALL products. And especially on raw materials for the domestic market and energy! Better yet, get deflation - by lowering interest rates and lowering domestic prices (cash flow from exports will increase - let it subsidize lower domestic prices)

    Let's learn from China! Low cost, maximum preferences for investors, minimum tax burden and stimulation of production and sales, especially for export.

    And we will not care about someone trying to attack the ruble or oil, or steel, or grain ...

    Although, of course, I am an idealist. We do not have competent officials, and most likely, everything will be as usual - exactly the opposite. And then we need to look for excuses and external enemies! As well as their accomplices, minions and agents!
    1. Messiah
      Messiah 10 November 2014 23: 26
      0
      Using the printing press of reserve currencies, "the guys behind the scenes control most of the planet's economy through their controlled structures: the Fed, the IMF, the World Bank, the UN, the G20, the Central Bank Union, etc., including on the basis of agreements from the G48 of 1904 and etc., providing for the emission rights of the countries of the founders of the Unified World Financial System and various increasing (and decreasing in the reverse recalculation) coefficients of "economic significance" - "K-1,2,3,4,5"! Which in turn are used countries "founding inheritors of G48" (G7) to recalculate the value of domestic and foreign products. For example, if the UK has a coefficient of "5" (USA-4,5; France-4; Germany-3,5), then a cup made in London , will cost $ 5, and the same cup made in China (coefficient "1,5"), respectively $ 1,5! And in Burma, $ -1! So all talk about a super-efficient Western economy is a bluff! No super performance or anything then there, simply by establishing the "secret rules of the game" at the beginning of the 20th century By controlling the media, International Institutions, and printing an unlimited number of reserve currencies, you can guarantee your prosperity by exploiting the rest of the world and thereby ensuring the loyalty of your population. And everyone else ... alas, unlucky, even if it doesn't help, they will "have" as they want, as long as you yourself do not claim your rights and prove. Unfortunately, we do not do either one or the other, although we have everything for this, - we need the will and a statement from the first person of the country demanding to restore the rights under the G1 as one of the main "shareholders" with a corresponding "side dish", but .. ..apparently, scary or "there is no one to go on reconnaissance with" ...
  43. Zoldat_A
    Zoldat_A 10 November 2014 21: 15
    +4
    Before the New Year, the ruble must overcome the pressure of buying up the currency by the population, stop, and the correction should begin. It is difficult to say in concrete figures, since this is not a mathematical model, there are too many unknowns. But one thing is for sure, the economic war will climb into our pockets with a new round of price increases. And for this we must say a big “thank you” to the market economy.
    In our country, how is it usually done? It is so schematic - on TV they talk about large harvests of buckwheat, the people, as usual (they accustomed!), Do not believe and run the buckwheat to buy. FISHERS am it is seen and inflated by prices from 25 to 100 rubles. Then, when the money is received and divided, an angry shout from above, the price slides down to 80 and remains so. Nobody remembers 25 anymore ..

    Completely breaking away from the economy hi Based on the above diagram, I can predict the growth of a raccoon to 55, then a shout (the first one was already yesterday), a drop to 48-50, and live like that. At the same time, the rise in consumer prices ("The dollar is jumping!") - from 40 to 70% until spring. For example, the Russian tradition of Christmas discounts is to raise prices by half. They will raise it by 50%, by mid-January they will drop it by 5-10%. The capitalists? Market? Bazaar! Hucksters!
  44. mervino2007
    mervino2007 11 November 2014 00: 10
    0
    Quote: MolGro
    The ruble fell on purpose.


    And increase the interest rate on loans - too? Our Central Bank is at one with them? Why do Gaidar followers rule?
  45. mervino2007
    mervino2007 11 November 2014 00: 15
    0
    Quote: wks
    Oil depreciated and financial collapse immediately


    Well what are you writing? The article clearly states: oil and its decline could not so much affect the ruble. Read it again!
  46. Burbon1973
    Burbon1973 11 November 2014 02: 32
    0
    Quote: smel

    As if they were for the flag, they still did not wind up 20 percent to the cost.

    I don’t know - I don’t know. They can and cheat. And not only 20 percent. For some reason, economists do not want to explain the Russian phenomenon of gasoline. Oil is getting more expensive and gas is getting more expensive. Oil is getting cheaper, and gas is getting more expensive again. And one more phenomenon concerning parliamentarians. Why do not they want to pass a law on limiting trade markups? For example, in 15%. That is, the manufacturer on the product writes the price of 100 rubles. So in the store this product should cost no more than 115. Apparently heavy law

    A good idea ... by the way, the recommended price for a pack of cigarettes is prescribed for tobacco products (even though it is poison and death), a manufacturer with an adequate profit of intermediaries recommends an adequate retail price! Any manufacturer of any product can do the same, until there is a decision by the State Duma! For example sour cream, cheese, sausage, etc. .... the recommended price is this! Well, let's see which of the manufacturers will do that!
  47. Ze Kot
    Ze Kot 11 November 2014 23: 45
    0
    Quote: smel

    As if they were for the flag, they still did not wind up 20 percent to the cost.

    I don’t know - I don’t know. They can and cheat. And not only 20 percent. For some reason, economists do not want to explain the Russian phenomenon of gasoline. Oil is getting more expensive and gas is getting more expensive. Oil is getting cheaper, and gas is getting more expensive again. And one more phenomenon concerning parliamentarians. Why do not they want to pass a law on limiting trade markups? For example, in 15%. That is, the manufacturer on the product writes the price of 100 rubles. So in the store this product should cost no more than 115. Apparently heavy law



    Nobody will work for 15%. Can only chain stores, due to the turnover. And for medium and small businesses, 15% is, at best, zero work. Since the cost of rent, wages, bribes, logistics. taxes ...