Military Review

Future without petrodollars

74
Future without petrodollars


Following the fall of the ruble and the price of hydrocarbons, citizens are expected to lay off

The weakening of the ruble, the decline in the price of oil threatens to seriously lower the standard of living of Russian citizens. Meanwhile, it is difficult to call all efforts of responsible persons aimed at rectifying the situation. It is not excluded that in Russia the situation of the beginning of the 1990-s may repeat, when many residents of the country were faced with the question of food.

The dollar has updated its record, its price is very close to 45 rubles. Since the beginning of the year, the American currency has risen in price by more than a third, and only from the beginning of November - by almost three rubles. In response, the Central Bank on Wednesday announced that from now on it will not spend more than 350 million dollars a day (about seven times less than the previous infusion) for foreign exchange interventions to maintain the ruble. In fact, this means that the "wooden" is sent to free fall.

It is quite possible that in this way the Central Bank is trying to compensate for losses from falling world oil prices. Futures on the WTI crude oil exchange on the New York Stock Exchange fell to 76 dollars per barrel. Recall that next year’s budget (with a deficit of 0,5% of GDP) is balanced with the expectation that oil will cost at least 96 dollars. At the current price, the treasury may be short of 1,5 trillion. rubles or 10% income. Save the situation can just a sharp drop in the national currency.

Our national economy is highly dependent on imports. Formally, the budget will be executed, but in practice our citizens will be able to buy significantly less. According to Rosstat, in the first nine months of 2014, products increased in price by an average of 9,6%.

At the same time, the state still has little control over speculators of all stripes who want to cash in on any problem. For example, in Russia, gasoline becomes more expensive when oil prices fall and when it rises, and every time our companies find excuses for their actions. Since January in the stock wholesale segment, the price of AI-92 gasoline has grown by as much as 34%. In the afternoon of November 5, it was reported that the Federal Anti-Monopoly Service (FAS) had filed a case against Bashneft, Lukoil and Rosneft. But few people believe that this will help correct the situation.

Keep up with oil giants and food dealers. Trading networks systematically rewrite price tags even for domestic potatoes and cabbage. The cost of cucumbers lately, according to Rosstat estimates, has increased by 40%.

As is known, a decrease in consumer demand leads to a reduction in wages and the number of jobs: a business is unable to keep the old wage fund. Even today, many enterprises are recruiting specialists for wages lower than a year ago, and the number of vacancies has decreased. There is, however, an exception: according to estimates of government agencies, the salaries of federal officials should double by the year 2018. But officials make up only 1,9% of the working population. So in the near future, our economy can expect a domino effect: an increase in the value of the dollar leads to a decrease in demand, a decrease in demand - to a reduction in nominal wages, a decrease in wages - to an even greater drop in demand and mass unemployment.

Against this background, the recent decision of the Central Bank to raise the key rate at which loans are provided to commercial banks against securities from 8% to 9,5% (at the beginning of the year it was 6%) looks very strange. In other words, the business will not wait for cheap loans, and all the talk about import substitution will remain nothing more than talk.

It is possible that the situation is trying to fix the increased supervision of budget expenditures. On Wednesday, the president signed a law on parliamentary control over the spending of funds on federal targeted programs (FTP). Previously, the government could approve the Federal Target Program without the approval of the State Duma and the Accounts Chamber, now it will have to enlist the support of deputies. But is not the very appearance of such a decree a recognition that, until now, money for FTP has been spent, so to speak, not very well?

It is clear that in the near future our citizens will hardly be able to afford the same expenses as before. But what will be the degree of decline in the standard of living?
Doctor of Economics, Professor of Moscow State University Andrei Kolganov believes that, despite all the difficulties, this disaster can still be avoided:

- There will be no economic disasters, but if oil prices are kept low, budget losses can be significant. First of all, they will cut social spending, spending on education and health care. Most likely, they will reduce government investment in the economy. There is nothing pleasant about it; the situation threatens to turn into a further slowdown in economic growth, if not a fall in the gross domestic product. Further depreciation of the ruble will mean a rise in prices for imported products, and we buy a lot of consumer goods and industrial equipment abroad. Of course, all this is not good news.

"SP": - Reducing social spending will lead to job cuts. Do not get a domino effect?

- I do not think that the current fall in oil prices could trigger a catastrophic fall in the economy. But if this is a long-term trend, then you have to tighten your belts. There will be no increase in revenues, and possibly their reduction.

"SP": - What could be the depth of the fall?

- I do not think that the decline in oil prices will continue. It is unlikely that it will hold at the current level and, most likely, will cost about 80 dollars per barrel.

"SP": - People should get ready in the spring to drop classes in scientific laboratories and go to plant potatoes?

- 1992 will not repeat the year. I'm not even sure that there will be a repeat of 2008. It is possible that we will manage with less blood than six years ago.

So far, we are only threatened by a fall in oil prices. The world economy does not yet present us with any other serious dangers. But a further decline in oil prices will be disadvantageous to all oil exporters, including Saudi Arabia, which has now played a fall. It is also unprofitable for the United States of America, since it puts their own development of alternative sources of hydrocarbons on the verge of profitability. It is unlikely that the global market will be further downhill, so I have some optimism.

Another thing is that if the price does not return to the mark of 95-100 dollars per barrel, and stabilizes at the level of 80-85 (which is most likely), then it will be hard for us. But this is not a disaster.

"SP": - In addition to oil prices in our economy and Western sanctions are beating.

- Sanctions are a painful thing, but their influence is not very great, oil prices have a stronger effect.

In strategic terms, the problem is that our economy is focused on the export of raw materials, oligarchic. Without a change in the structure of the economy in the long run, we will lose.

Vasily Koltashov, an economist at the Institute of Globalization and Social Movements, is more pessimistic:

- The fall of the ruble exchange rate is the result of a recession in the Russian economy, which has been developing for two years now with the complete inaction of the Russian government. The Cabinet of Ministers and the Central Bank are going to reduce the national currency, because by the beginning of autumn it was greatly overvalued. The fall is associated with an increase in the export of capital and simply with the withdrawal of funds from the economy: no one intends to invest in a dying ruble economy.

From the point of view of the government, the actions are correct. But in terms of the functioning of the economy, the decisions are catastrophic. We see a contraction in the domestic market, a drop in the demand for real estate, and cars. In the end, a base is created for the further fall of the ruble.
I believe that the price of a dollar in 60 rubles is not far off, if everything continues according to this logic.

Of course, with this approach, our officials will execute the budget calculated in rubles. But they will not be able to somehow stop the decline of the economy. All the same, production will be reduced, trade curtailed. A serious blow has already been dealt to the real estate market. Previously, he was in serious condition, now - in a situation of his destruction. Sellers do not raise ruble prices, because buyers are overwhelmed by devaluation.

Many citizens cancel their trips abroad, prefer to keep their savings, feeling the approach of a “black day”.

"SP": - The situation will worsen?

- The problem of our economy is that compared to 1992 year, our national economy is much more integrated into the market system. Without money, it will be very difficult for people to survive. By this, we are even different from Ukraine, which recently suffered a similar economic crisis. The Ukrainian crisis in the economy (non-political) is the forerunner of our crisis.

Of course, the value of natural economy and vegetable gardens will increase. At the same time, the demand for Russian agricultural products, such as onions, potatoes, cabbage, will only grow: people need to somehow survive.

These trends will develop amid falling production and job cuts. Layoffs have long been underway, and the labor market shows a drop in wages. Qualified specialists of the company prefer to hire for less money.

Overall, the prospect is scary. Yes, in ruble terms the budget will be executed. But stabilization in the economy is not expected, and this will only increase layoffs, lower wages. This scenario was already inside the eurozone.

"SP": - What is the cause of such negative consequences?

- At the beginning of the second wave of the crisis, in 2012, Russia had a very important economic resource. This resource was the domestic consumer, it can be called a representative of the middle class "zero". After the first wave of the crisis in 2008, consumer demand recovered slightly, wages in major cities recovered.

Our liberal economists have said that the increase in wages is our damnation. They say that these are the parasitic layers that eat up the country, that this is the basis of our low labor productivity and therefore we must lower wages. I am of the opinion that the increase in wages is a huge resource of the Russian economy, on which we must rely. It is possible to develop domestic production based on the domestic market, especially since this market has grown.

So, what happened this year and will happen next, is the narrowing of the domestic market. Perhaps formally our productivity will increase. But the trouble is that the resource is being destroyed, with the help of which it was possible to easily overcome the second wave of the economic crisis. Our middle class becomes poor and sometimes very poor. This means that there is no longer a basis for the correction of economic policy.

Actually, no one was going to correct anything. We are increasing dependence on the export of raw materials. All government actions are in no way connected with the processes occurring in the economy. Labor market processes are ignored, processes in the industry oriented to the domestic market are ignored. All attention is focused on maintaining the financial sector.

I have no doubt that the financial sector will remain stable this year and next. The largest banks will strengthen, export corporations will also retain their positions. On this will be spent resources that would have to go to the revival of the economy.

"SP": - Is it possible to associate with the complication of the situation in the economy the decision to introduce parliamentary control over the spending of funds under federal targeted programs?

- Rather, it is a red herring. Deputies will be engaged in the control of spending funds within the budget. There is no control over the Central Bank. But it’s not the budget expenditures that decide, but the policy of the Central Bank, which drastically changes the economic life in the country, the value of budget expenditures.

"SP": - Recently, the Central Bank raised the key rate.

- Raising the refinancing rate is a tool for the collapse of the Russian currency. Loan appreciation leads to further attenuation of economic life. The speed of circulation of money decreases. While the demand for "live" money is constantly increasing. But whoever has money, he transfers them into dollars and takes them out of the economy.

"SP": - Is it really impossible to force the Central Bank to act in the national interests, to revive domestic demand, to switch to import substitution? All recipes are already spelled out by academic expert circles.

- I will bring historical the analogy. This summer, when the so-called “fifth column” was preparing Donetsk for surrender, all active deputies of the Donetsk Republic were put in prison to write the Constitution of the DPR. But the writing of the Constitution at the moment when Donetsk could be taken at any moment did not matter.

In the same way, our economists are now engaged in discussions on the subject of which industries and how they can proceed to import substitution. Although the whole game has already been played, Russia is negotiating with the West. After the war of sanctions, the order of detente begins, there will be no new sanctions, and Russia will make concessions to the US and the EU. One of these concessions is the weakening of the ruble exchange rate, which depreciates the resource of domestic demand. We argue about what is not happening. So for a few years everyone was talking about modernization, which was not there. Although all conditions contributed to its implementation. Now we are talking about import substitution, which is not. In practice, Italian grapes will be replaced by cabbage and carrots, but there will be no substitution oriented towards the revival of strong domestic agriculture.

"SP": - That is, it is only about the speed of the fall of the economy.

- Exactly. The most interesting is that the bottom of the fall does not exist. In a market economy, the bottom can only be the complete destruction of commodity-money relations. This is the real bottom. And I really would not want us to reach it.

It should be borne in mind that as soon as this prospect becomes real, some forces appear in society that turn the process in the opposite direction, with some emergency measures they stabilize the situation.

I am afraid that this year a terrible mistake was made in Russia. It was allowed that the Central Bank devalued consumer resources. And it can be very expensive politically.

Now liberal commentators are surprised that people are crowded with exchangers and change rubles for dollars, and the mood “Crimea is ours” remains in force.

Over the past 15 years in Russia has grown not only the standard of living, but also a sense of national pride. Patriotic feelings grew along with the financial well-being of citizens, the two processes merged. Now we are in the economic plan again in the “nineties”. Accordingly, in the near future, a sense of national pride will also be trampled down. It collapses down in tandem with wealth. And it will be the basis of political resistance of society. Not by chance, on the eve of National Unity Day, the Central Bank conducted currency intervention and imitated the stabilization of the ruble exchange rate, having won back the value of the dollar by two rubles.

While citizens do not fully understand how the dollar exchange rate affects the labor market. But soon people will have more clarity. And then it will be possible not only a different economic policy, but, probably, we will live in a different society.
Author:
Originator:
http://svpressa.ru/economy/article/103118/
74 comments
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  1. The comment was deleted.
    1. Vitaly Anisimov
      Vitaly Anisimov 8 November 2014 18: 17
      +28
      I am afraid that a terrible mistake has been made in Russia this year. It was allowed that the Central Bank depreciate the resource of consumers.

      Poor consumers .. (they cannot reproduce already) ... I agree with the last words of the author!
      And then not only a different economic policy will become possible, but, probably, we will live in a different society.

      For a long time already, the time will not be worse (for most of the population, certainly) .. Bedbugs on the body of Russia have got a lot of time to clean themselves ..! And don’t scare us with your dollars and all sorts of inflated rates .. hi
      1. Denis fj
        Denis fj 8 November 2014 18: 35
        +19
        Reboot of the global monetary system will happen before the end of 2014?
        One of the leading American experts in statistics and economics, Dr. Jim Willie, gave a three-hour interview with Caravan to Midnight Radio, in which he expressed his views on the current financial, economic and geopolitical situation in the world. The expert believes that one of the reasons for the establishment of the Shanghai Gold Exchange is the desire of China to gain control over pricing for precious metals on a global scale, crowding out Comex (New York Futures Exchange). After that, China intends to provoke a reboot of the global monetary system, during which gold prices rise to their real level. According to Dr. Willie's predictions, China will ensure that gold prices rise at least twice in relation to the current price. This will hit the derivatives financially, and all of Comex’s efforts to curb gold prices and protect the dollar will go to waste.
        1. CTEPX
          CTEPX 8 November 2014 19: 33
          +7
          Finance is not an economy. This is politics)). And the dollar is cut paper!
        2. varov14
          varov14 8 November 2014 19: 59
          +5
          So in China, a reboot will happen, and in order for it to happen we must apparently go outside and snatch the eggs from a couple of oligarchs, or bankers, and the reboot will also begin, either those who come out will be rebooted, or those who leave will load.
          1. Lich
            Lich 8 November 2014 20: 59
            +2
            What for such rotten articles are passed? What is worse than what has happened in the country? Sometimes, and not from such a Hovna were chosen. And now let's get out, "no sy" - as they say in the great Chinese folk proverb, "no sy in cowards" - the great Russian wisdom echoes it!
            And no, I don’t suffer from hatred, but I will not spoil the air after watching TV or reading these pearls smile
          2. kikume
            kikume 9 November 2014 03: 28
            +3
            But to go out with the goal of tearing eggs to the oligarchs ... Isn't that how the Maidan began?
            No, it’s impossible, because the whole Maidan was planned and played out, and people were deceived, well, or whom they bribed. Then you have to sit at home, live as before, and believe that smart people are in power more than us and will resolve the whole situation .... Hmm, no, it’s impossible either, because in the 90s everything happened, in the 90s we we do not want. That is, going outside is bad and staying home is bad, so what should we do?
        3. bmv04636
          bmv04636 8 November 2014 21: 55
          +3
          Well, now it’s clear why the Bank of Russia is buying gold for the sixth month in a row
      2. Giant thought
        Giant thought 8 November 2014 19: 03
        +27
        As long as Medvedev’s liberal government rules in Russia, no light will be visible at the end of the tunnel.
        1. Норд
          Норд 8 November 2014 19: 43
          +3
          A good selection of rotten forecasts. Chef, the mustache is gone ...
          Do not wait for liberalistic provocateurs.
          1. Yura
            Yura 8 November 2014 22: 36
            +5
            Quote: Nord
            A good selection of rotten forecasts. Chef, the mustache is gone ...
            Do not wait for liberalistic provocateurs.

            Well, yes, at the beginning of the article I was wary, by the middle a tear crawled, by the end of the article I sobbed soberly, and all this due to the fact that the money I got so much cheaper, it saddened me even more that the money turned out to be no less expensive which I not only do not have but never have. . Who the thread would give a nugget of gold to pood about, ... this is not a mercantile interest, this is an appendage to the rope, go drown or something? Although if there is gold, then there will be money, both cheap and expensive, that drown.laughing
        2. Altona
          Altona 8 November 2014 22: 22
          +6
          Quote: Thought Giant
          As long as Medvedev’s liberal government rules in Russia, no light will be visible at the end of the tunnel.

          ------------------------
          Shooters in yesterday's interview also found no consolation in the economic policy of the Russian Federation, the article may exaggerate, but the author is right about the fall of the "bottomless" ... A strong economic decline will cause the eternal question of citizens "How long?" and with such a question, the economic chaos will only intensify following the example of Ukraine ...
      3. The comment was deleted.
      4. sgazeev
        sgazeev 8 November 2014 19: 34
        +3
        Quote: MIKHAN
        I am afraid that a terrible mistake has been made in Russia this year. It was allowed that the Central Bank depreciate the resource of consumers.

        Poor consumers .. (they cannot reproduce already) ... I agree with the last words of the author!
        And then not only a different economic policy will become possible, but, probably, we will live in a different society.

        For a long time already, the time will not be worse (for most of the population, certainly) .. Bedbugs on the body of Russia have got a lot of time to clean themselves ..! And don’t scare us with your dollars and all sorts of inflated rates .. hi

        The scribe, "sang" for the repose. One way out, for those in power: DO NOT STEAL, DO NOT EAT A LOT IN THREE BRYUHA. And then there will be a tip-top. laughing
        1. igor.borov775
          igor.borov775 9 November 2014 14: 56
          0
          Hello !! Remember the scandal that arose when Primakov at the Forum of all liberal economists that got together and decided what to call 2013. The thing is that the economy began to decline already then. Primakov, without any evasions, bluntly said what would happen in the future. He then already talked about braking in the growth of the economy. But there was no sanction at all. Remember how Mr. Medvedev assured everyone that this is a wrong forecast and everything will come back warm and growth will increase. The Chief Minister for Economics Mr. Ulyukaev flashed on all channels. I assured everything was under control. That the drop in growth is temporary. The central bank closed unclean banks and there were not a few of them. The prime minister’s muttering that the rich do not steal bankers smashed to smithereens. They steal it as they steal it. The first half of the year was remembered by the litigation with banks. The second half of the year was marked by the collapse of travel agencies. And what is strange is that everything is normal in the Government, and we rushed down. Something looks like 2008. I thought that the lessons of the crisis were taken into account and there would be no mistakes. But it seems to me that the established scheme is just being used that was applied in 2008. There are no cardinal changes. Half-and-half measures are being phased out, obtaining cheap loans is evident. And long-term loans can no longer be obtained. In principle, no one forbids but the interest rate stops. It does not remind you of anything. Everything is very similar, only another year is different.
      5. edmaster
        edmaster 8 November 2014 20: 09
        +10
        The article is not correct, the author is simply not literate. The article is saturated with lies in order to catch up with drama.

        In response to this, the Central Bank said on Wednesday that it would no longer spend more than $ 350 million a day (about seven times less than previous injections) on foreign exchange interventions to support the ruble. In fact, this means that the "wooden" is sent to free fall.

        But the author does not understand: in fact, this means that the Central Bank will not spend currency on speculators and on oligarchs who have taken loans in dollars. And is it so bad - you decide.

        Trading networks systematically rewrite price tags even for domestic potatoes and cabbage. The cost of cucumbers in recent years, according to Rosstat, has grown by 40%.

        Links to the studio - otherwise a lie. At 99% of vegetables, the price fell. But you can not write about it. But the author’s cucumbers in the store - yes, an indicator.

        Against this background, the recent decision of the Central Bank to raise the key rate at which loans are provided to commercial banks against securities from 8% to 9,5% (at the beginning of the year it was 6%) looks very strange. In other words, the business will not wait for cheap loans, and all the talk about import substitution will remain nothing more than talk.

        Business without loans? - the author is lying. The author of iPhon sales lacks? Why not tell the author the value of the key% rate in China, Brazil, Argentina ...? Let the author tell you at what% the real sector is credited in our country and in the other countries mentioned: agrarians, AvtoVAZ, Rossneft, Russian Railways ...

        The price of a futures exchange on the WTI crude on the New York Stock Exchange fell to $ 76 per barrel. Recall that next year's budget (with a deficit of 0,5% of GDP) is balanced with the expectation that oil will cost at least 96 dollars.

        The budget includes the average annual oil price of $ 96, converted to rubles for the previous rate. Budget liabilities in rubles, not dollars

        There is, however, an exception: according to government agencies, the salaries of federal officials should double by 2018.

        Documents (links) to the studio. Otherwise, this is a lie of the author.

        Our national economy is heavily dependent on imports.

        Strong or not strong - everything is relative. As conveniently said. But it could have been simpler: "Our national economy will not suffer from the appreciation of the ruble, and some (our producers who compete with foreign ones in our market, and exporters) will even benefit." It is not for nothing that the United States considers the Yuan's exchange rate to be SPECIALLY underestimated and demands that it be allowed to float freely.

        On the eve of National Unity Day, the Central Bank conducted a currency intervention and imitated stabilization of the ruble exchange rate, having won back the value of the dollar by two rubles.

        I do not think that the Central Bank reports to the author what and when he did.

        In general, the author through a lie deliberately escalates the negative.
      6. Libra
        Libra 8 November 2014 21: 04
        +3
        in the Constitution of the Russian Federation - thanks to the American advisers who wrote it in 1993 - there is a special article according to which our Central Bank does not obey the Kremlin
        http://fritzmorgen.livejournal.com/723625.html
        http://ruxpert.ru/Проблемы_Конституции_РФ
        1. SSR
          SSR 8 November 2014 23: 14
          +2
          Quote: Libra
          in the Constitution of the Russian Federation - thanks to the American advisers who wrote it in 1993 - there is a special article according to which our Central Bank does not obey the Kremlin
          http://fritzmorgen.livejournal.com/723625.html
          http://ruxpert.ru/Проблемы_Конституции_РФ

          So it’s like that - Sochi coins are already with the Coat of Arms of the Russian Federation and not with the Bank of Russia with a Kerenka, so that the water wears away the stone and in general, people don’t have words like a drawbar in the hands of a heap. (this is not for you).
          1. ussr1960
            ussr1960 9 November 2014 01: 23
            +4
            Over the past 15 years, not only the standard of living in Russia, but also a sense of national pride has grown. Patriotic feelings grew along with the financial well-being of citizens, these two processes connected. Now, in economic terms, we are again in the "nineties." Accordingly, in the short term, a sense of national pride will be trampled. It crashes down together with welfare.


            It turns out Russia's national pride lies in welfare, depending on the course of the US dollar? But I always thought that national pride in the country and welfare of things are not comparable with each other. National pride has always been a concept of the spiritual state of society and citizens. Well-being - a small pill in your pocket, the concept of national pride has never been.
      7. Erg
        Erg 9 November 2014 11: 13
        0
        I agree. "It was allowed that the central bank devalued ..." This heresy is offered to us by the "specialist". And who in Russia had the opportunity to prevent this? I would like to receive real information. Article minus, here a barrel of ointment spoils a spoonful of honey
    2. The comment was deleted.
  2. DanSabaka
    DanSabaka 8 November 2014 18: 08
    +17
    We'll have to give up trade and return to production .... and this is not bad ....
    1. Finches
      Finches 8 November 2014 18: 19
      +30
      I think that it will really be difficult for two years, but if we firmly adhere to the path of full import substitution and invest in the development of our production! Stop in many ways the stupid copying of Western social technologies, primarily in education, science .., then Russia will make an economic breakthrough by 2018, definitely! Resources and hidden and explicit we have for this! The main thing is that there would be no war and that internal betrayal does not happen in the upper echelons of power, as happened 30 years ago!
      1. saag
        saag 8 November 2014 18: 32
        +8
        Quote: Finches
        then Russia will make an economic breakthrough by 2018, definitely!

        Since 1991 and until now, the Russian Federation has taken some steps only due to high oil prices, I do not see the prerequisites that it will do it at the expense of domestic resources, there is no industrial policy, there is no development strategy for the country, everything is under manual control
        1. Finches
          Finches 8 November 2014 18: 40
          +9
          Here, sanctions and low prices for raw materials, the loss of Western markets, should play the role of a catalyst for economic reorientation! The ratio of the ruble to the dollar should be completely excluded as an indicator of economic well-being!
          1. DRA-88
            DRA-88 8 November 2014 18: 54
            +5
            Quote: Finches
            Here, sanctions and low prices for raw materials, the loss of Western markets, should play the role of a catalyst for economic reorientation!

            Do not entertain yourself with illusions!
            Since 1991, the Russian Federation in the world niche of the division of labor has the status of a free raw materials appendage of the West, a huge market for goods and world garbage!
            Not for this, world imperialism and Zionism was ruining the USSR, making it a colony with a colonial administration, in order to give the Russian Federation an opportunity to shake off the colonial yoke after 23 years!
            The colonial administration, but the authorities will not do anything for the People, which the authorities absolutely do not care.
            And the police apparatus created by the administration (almost 2 million heads + paramilitary Emergencies Ministry + BB + FSO, etc.) and the proximity of NATO are a guarantee of revolutionary changes!
            1. Finches
              Finches 8 November 2014 18: 57
              +3
              I think you are a little thicken!
              It is difficult to disagree with what the colony was doing from the country, but to do and to do is all different things!
              1. DRA-88
                DRA-88 8 November 2014 19: 20
                +3
                Quote: Finches
                I think you are a little thicken!

                I called a spade a spade!
                Quote: Finches
                but doing and doing are all different things!

                They did it, the process is completed!
                Read the set of fundamental state. laws for 23 years and you will have doubts!
                1. Finches
                  Finches 8 November 2014 20: 06
                  +2
                  Well, if, for example, you agree with you! What are the chances for Russia to jump off this road? Or what needs to be done to the people? Your opinion. Naturally, within the framework of the law ... Since the example of Ukraine clearly shows that for some reason the Maidan epidemic for a better life for the people results in very deplorable results for this very people!
                  1. saag
                    saag 8 November 2014 20: 15
                    0
                    Quote: Finches
                    What are the chances for Russia to jump off this road?

                    This raises the question of which way to jump?
                    1. Finches
                      Finches 8 November 2014 20: 24
                      +2
                      On the road to independence in everything - politics, economics ..., full self-sufficiency! Since we are now in the opinion of many already a colony.
                      1. DRA-88
                        DRA-88 8 November 2014 20: 53
                        +3
                        Quote: Finches
                        On the road to independence in everything - politics, economics ..., full self-sufficiency! Since we are now in the opinion of many already a colony.

                        If within, then here!

                        IN AND. Stalin. ("Conversation with the First American Workers' Delegation," v. 10, p. 96.)

                        Read the classics; everything has long been invented and written, almost about the current moment!
                      2. Finches
                        Finches 8 November 2014 21: 07
                        +3
                        Thanks for the link! hi
                        I’ll surely read it because I haven’t read it, I will think it over and I hope that thanks to the VO platform, we will definitely discuss this topic with you!
                        hi
                        At the moment, I cannot agree with you that we are completely a raw material appendage of the West or, as he put it, suffering from the Vietnam syndrome, Mr. McCain: “Russia is a gas station that pretends to be a country. This is kleptocracy, this is corruption, this is a country whose economy really only depends on oil and gas. "
                        The sense of national identity does not allow me to agree with this, and that’s it!
                        Your view of things is identical to that of the principal enemy of McCain from the USA! This is not quite worthy of a citizen of our country!
                        I apologize if I allowed myself too much!
                      3. DRA-88
                        DRA-88 8 November 2014 21: 15
                        +4
                        Quote: Finches
                        Thanks to the VO platform, we will definitely discuss this topic with you!

                        I take you solely as a COMPETENT !!! hi
                        Quote: Finches
                        The sense of national identity does not allow me to agree with this, and that’s it!

                        Here, I agree with you!
                        But the faster WE see, the better for US !!!
                      4. Finches
                        Finches 8 November 2014 21: 30
                        +1
                        As an ally, an ally! A plus!
                        hi
                        Even so: drinks
                      5. DRA-88
                        DRA-88 8 November 2014 22: 21
                        +1
                        Quote: Finches
                        as an ally, an ally! A plus!

                        With pleasure!!!! drinks
            2. Andrew
              Andrew 9 November 2014 07: 25
              0
              I absolutely agree, everything is so, for this the massacre is now going on .... When all the security forces lifted up their salaries, I realized, the oprichnina was coming ...
          2. Lelek
            Lelek 8 November 2014 18: 57
            +2
            Quote: Finches
            The ratio of the ruble to the dollar should be completely excluded as an indicator of economic well-being!


            This will happen only when the dollar ceases to be the world reserve currency, or when the dollar is really provided with the gold equivalent. yes
            1. DRA-88
              DRA-88 8 November 2014 19: 16
              +2
              Quote: Lelek
              This will happen only when the dollar ceases to be the world reserve currency, or when the dollar is really provided with the gold equivalent.

              So it will never happen!
              1. Andrew
                Andrew 9 November 2014 07: 35
                0
                never say never"...
        2. sgazeev
          sgazeev 8 November 2014 19: 52
          +3
          Quote: saag
          Quote: Finches
          then Russia will make an economic breakthrough by 2018, definitely!

          Since 1991 and until now, the Russian Federation has taken some steps only due to high oil prices, I do not see the prerequisites that it will do it at the expense of domestic resources, there is no industrial policy, there is no development strategy for the country, everything is under manual control
      2. sgazeev
        sgazeev 8 November 2014 19: 39
        +2
        Quote: Finches
        I think that it will really be difficult for two years, but if we firmly adhere to the path of full import substitution and invest in the development of our production! Stop in many ways the stupid copying of Western social technologies, primarily in education, science .., then Russia will make an economic breakthrough by 2018, definitely! Resources and hidden and explicit we have for this! The main thing is that there would be no war and that internal betrayal does not happen in the upper echelons of power, as happened 30 years ago!

        To begin with, to arrange a public flogging for the field-worker with stsuka, Aypad Ayfonych and further on the list.
        1. Cenij150814
          Cenij150814 8 November 2014 19: 54
          +3
          Quote: sgazeev
          To begin with, to arrange a public flogging for the field-worker with stsuka, Aypad Ayfonych and further on the list

          Lord, you’re constantly walking along the road Vovochka lose! How can you revive a great state with such confusion? laughing
          1. DRA-88
            DRA-88 8 November 2014 19: 58
            +2
            Quote: Cenij150814
            Lord, you’re constantly walking along the road Vovochka!

            "Sacred cow" touch nizzzyayaya! laughing

            Hello, Sasha!
            1. Cenij150814
              Cenij150814 8 November 2014 20: 06
              0
              Quote: DRA-88
              "Sacred cow" touch nizzzyayaya!

              Hello Vladlen!
              You’re probably right! Because I don’t have any other explanation!
      3. varov14
        varov14 8 November 2014 20: 11
        0
        With what kind of fright Russia will make an economic breakthrough, where are the prerequisites for now. The right is in power, so it must be applied .--- "The blind power of the people of the day cannot live without a leader, and the new government only takes the place of the old one, weakened by liberalism." The old government, although not decrepit, clearly pisses, the leader seems to have hatched, if it does not reach him that the law is in force, it is a pity - they will be crushed.
    2. APES
      APES 8 November 2014 18: 20
      +10
      most important conclusion:

      the problem is that our economy is oriented towards the export of raw materials, oligarchic. Without changing the structure of the economy in the long run, we will lose
    3. Siberian German
      Siberian German 8 November 2014 18: 24
      +4
      quit trading? - to produce in order to produce - this is stupid - we need to produce what we need and sell, but to sell correctly is a science like that.
  3. Baloo
    Baloo 8 November 2014 18: 13
    -1
    Pessimism of a poorly informed specialist?
    1. saag
      saag 8 November 2014 18: 34
      +8
      Quote: Balu
      Pessimism of a poorly informed specialist?

      why so, I read this article a little earlier and if you noticed that in the article the exchange rate is 45 rubles per dollar, now it’s 48, where is the pessimism?
  4. klavyr
    klavyr 8 November 2014 18: 17
    +11
    the economic component hides the political component. it is necessary to remove the splinter (oligarchs with their henchmen) from the body (people of the country), with the plunderers of state property - deal with it as under Stalin
    1. sgazeev
      sgazeev 8 November 2014 19: 56
      +5
      Quote: klavyr
      the economic component hides the political component. it is necessary to remove the splinter (oligarchs with their henchmen) from the body (people of the country), with the plunderers of state property - deal with it as under Stalin
      1. Tektor
        Tektor 8 November 2014 22: 41
        +1
        I can give very specific advice on how to resolve the situation, and even fill the budget. Let me remind you that we need to support Rosneft, Russian Railways, and some other national producers for several trillion rubles. AND AT THIS - without collapsing the ruble. Watch your lips? Elementary. It is necessary to introduce a margin for the purchase of currency on the MICEX! Those. currency sale - at the current rate, but the purchase - also at the rate, but the amount minus the margin that goes to the budget is transferred to the account. The margin may be floating, but sufficient so that speculation on exchange rates become unprofitable. Based on the latest data, 5% margin will cut off more than 50% of speculators, and 20% - all. Then it will be possible to pour at least 50 rubles in the economy into the economy. Kakavo?
  5. mamont5
    mamont5 8 November 2014 18: 19
    -4
    Another Amer troll.
    1. VOLCHOXURAL
      VOLCHOXURAL 8 November 2014 18: 26
      -1
      Quote: mamont5
      Another Amer troll.

      All-crawler.
      And by the way, recently, they even didn’t move very much, so they got aroused!
      1. Penzyac
        Penzyac 8 November 2014 19: 00
        +9
        Quote: VOLCHONOKSURALA
        Quote: mamont5
        Another Amer troll.

        All-crawler.
        And by the way, recently, they even didn’t move very much, so they got aroused!

        Why is it all-spreading? In my opinion, the author writes quite reasonably why, under the libertarian economic policy carried out by the Government and the Central Bank, it is naive to wait for an improvement. He writes that the ideological heirs of "the best finance minister" Kudrin - the liberals should have been dismissed, as they say, yesterday, otherwise it will only get worse and worse.
        What do you disagree with? With the fact that the Government and the Central Bank do not have a fifth column pushing the President with all his strength to surrender to the grace of the United States? Do you really want this? I, like the author, no! I do not want!
    2. Penzyac
      Penzyac 8 November 2014 18: 40
      +8
      Quote: mamont5
      Another Amer troll.

      No, it’s just that the Amer’s trolls settled in the Central Bank of the Russian Federation and in the economic bloc of the Government, which the author warns about, warned, that means he’s armed.
      So far, the actions (not words and promises) of the Government and, especially, the Central Bank do not give any grounds for naive rainbow optimism.
      I see that so far the majority of those who have noted the comments on the article do not like the conclusions of the author (apparently, they undermine the faith). I don’t like them either, but what to do, they don’t take offense at the truth, but the author is still right. The author is right that these "economists" who are now determining the policy of the Government and the Central Bank of the Russian Federation to correct the situation in the economy are not capable, they are for action on the way out of the crisis are not suitable for professional use.
  6. Junior, I
    Junior, I 8 November 2014 18: 21
    0
    Time will tell! for now, only the author’s big words!
    1. Locksmith
      Locksmith 8 November 2014 18: 33
      +3
      Quote: DanSabaka
      We'll have to give up trade and return to production ..

      ... And that's right .. I returned, worked in the service, not in trade, but this is one hell of a service, and now the "leading electronics engineer", I'm very glad, the salary has increased, stability (pension) is the only thing that annoys is to get up at 6 am wink
      1. Penzyac
        Penzyac 8 November 2014 19: 26
        +4
        Quote: Locksmith
        Quote: DanSabaka
        We'll have to give up trade and return to production ..

        ... And that's right .. I returned, worked in the service, not in trade, but this is one hell of a service, and now the "leading electronics engineer", I'm very glad, the salary has increased, stability (pension) is the only thing that annoys is to get up at 6 am wink

        But it’s right! Liberals divorced continuous trade, you know! Although trade is a necessary thing, but not the main thing (although this cannot be said for the prevailing share of appropriation of profit). The real thing you need to do, but not the grandmother to cut. One misfortune - you can’t feed the entire country with the military-industrial complex alone (although I myself work in it), and liberals would put it, if not in the political will of the GDP, as in the 90s, almost exclusively at the expense of export. You can’t live only by selling the future (unforgettable resources), once the rope will end anyway.
    2. Penzyac
      Penzyac 8 November 2014 19: 13
      +5
      Quote: Younger, I
      Time will tell! for now, only the author’s big words!

      What a rant? In whose favor?
      Something I did not understand, today that, in the mass invasion of commentators-liberals (Amer trolls) or what kind of infection is special, but I did not notice? ...
      Right, some kind of continuous psakakism! Instead of thinking about the author’s warnings, many accuse the devil of knowing what, as if it’s his fault that modernization and import substitution are squeamish, not sequentially, only after the President’s direct intervention in each specific case. Is it because of the author’s fault that oil is getting cheaper, the ruble is falling, and gasoline and everything else, except for the salaries of non-officials, is growing in price by leaps and bounds? I goofing! ...
  7. witch
    witch 8 November 2014 18: 25
    0
    wait and see to whom and what will happen I still hope that this time the holey-backed 3,14ndosia will not.
  8. 3vs
    3vs 8 November 2014 18: 26
    +5
    It is necessary to beat the head of the owners of retail chains more.
    The faster the price tags are rewritten, the more taxes are taken,
    as long as common sense begins to prevail over greed and arrogance.

    And for those who do not understand this joke:
    The conscript calls the regional military registration and enlistment office, gets on the answering machine.
    Answering machine - "Hello, the answering machine of the regional military registration and enlistment office is talking to you,
    if you want to serve - click on the asterisk; if you do not want to serve -
    hit the hash ... " laughing
  9. Cat man null
    Cat man null 8 November 2014 18: 27
    0
    "It's all bad !!! We'll die !!!!"

    - the fall of the ruble is the result of so many reasons, and in fact - it is better (from the point of view of the state. From mine, as a layman - of course, no) than stupid compulsory course maintenance. I can justify it.
    - "we slipped into the 90s" - nope .. I remember the 90s well - it doesn't even smell like it now
    - "The most interesting thing is that there is no bottom for the fall. In a market economy, the bottom can only be the complete destruction of commodity-money relations. This is the real bottom." - oh how .. remember (it was) - barter, only barter!

    By the way - it is curious where the article came from. svpressa.ru - who is not lazy, come in, evaluate .. the scale of the "flight of thought" laughing laughing laughing
  10. zzz
    zzz 8 November 2014 18: 27
    +16
    Next to another topic, repost:
    I understood what was happening and why. Now I will give the main tips, but I will not write everything, so as not to frighten off. I can say that everything is under Putin’s control. In addition to the Central Bank, but this, I hope, is temporary.
    What happened in August? In August, in addition to various high-profile news from Ukraine, sanctions occurred. Like any military leader, Putin is well aware that in wartime it is important to provide people with food. Right? Right. What was done? Removed products from store shelves! But not all, but those that are bought for dollars and euros and for which, therefore, it is possible to raise prices depending on the growth of exchange rates, which would allow people to quickly take to the streets due to a 2-fold increase in food prices (like the dollar rose today, here at the same percentage and higher). Have you been in a store for a long time? Are Russian tomatoes more expensive? Potato? Milk? Cheese? Bread? As a hostess, I can say that the Russians grew by 2-8 rubles, as, in fact, they have grown every fall in recent years. Those who eat jamon and other nonsense, they die of hunger. But these are their problems. But mostly people, thanks to the timely replacement of products whose prices the West would manipulate, do not really feel the growth of the dollar. That is, the people were expelled from the affected parties in the battle of the bankers with Putin and the BRICS. Fine! And after that, someone will say that horror-horror and "Putinsliel" ??? He has everything under control just)
    As for the chipstone question, who is being punished by the president of Russia with such a dollar exchange rate, I see several enemies:
    - The social sphere of America (and there, throw the match of poverty - everything, everything with weapons and the Maidan is provided)
    - lovers of offshore fraud among corporations. They were told to stop and return to their homeland? They said. They preferred to save resources to fight the “regime” abroad. Well, fine, now they are weakened, exhausted and they will no longer have the time to finance our liberal lovers of parmesan
    - The Fed as a whole. When is it easier to pay interest on bonds: when is the dollar low or when is it expensive? And they are already barely making ends meet in order to pay this percentage.

    I think that’s why Obama and the Australian Prime Minister are looking for meetings with Putin in the corridors of the G20. I hope they do not succeed)))

    entaya
    1. Finches
      Finches 8 November 2014 20: 39
      +1
      hi
      Absolutely to the point!
      Only all the same, I would, in place of GDP, send troops to Ukraine, and then I would already bargain with the West! But, fortunately, GDP is in its place, and I am in my place laughing
    2. bugaev2005
      bugaev2005 8 November 2014 20: 44
      0
      Zzz You are smart, I agree with everything! If I had you in acquaintances, then in the phone’s notebook would be written, for example, as- Brain, Genius, Clever)))
      1. Finches
        Finches 8 November 2014 20: 51
        +1
        Let me put you a plus! From the heart! hi laughing
    3. glitchy
      glitchy 8 November 2014 23: 03
      +1
      Super! Putin’s calculated all the moves, I read the repost with great pleasure, plus I definitely.
    4. soviet skytourist
      soviet skytourist 9 November 2014 00: 29
      +1
      the financial pyramid of rushits, but players will try to minimize losses at this stage
  11. Sergey Sitnikov
    Sergey Sitnikov 8 November 2014 18: 29
    +3
    Ukraine fucked up everyone, and we’re glad to see the ruble collapse, you’re happy early on - we’ll buy a ticket for the last money and go to hang up the bandar, indiscriminately
    1. Cristall
      Cristall 9 November 2014 16: 42
      0
      Quote: Sergey Sitnikov
      with the last money we’ll buy a ticket and we’ll go to hang the bandar, indiscriminately

      find show ... otherwise I do not believe in mythical characters.
  12. Mountain shooter
    Mountain shooter 8 November 2014 18: 29
    +14
    Bullshit, not an article. An incoherent set of inarticulate threats. The dollar exchange rate no longer determines the structure of domestic demand. With ridiculous turnover on the stock exchange, it makes no sense to look at the exchange rate determined by speculators. Having a positive balance of payment transactions even now, with a falling oil price, it is strange to observe a fall in the currency. One can now imagine such a scenario - after swinging the exchange rate on the stock exchange, banks and other financial organizations will cause a panic among the population, forcing them to buy currency at an overvalued rate in droves. Then the collapse of the $ rate to its natural value in the region of 37 will cause a panic with the sale of foreign currency for rubles. As a result, the pockets of the middle class will be cleared by 20 percent, and the waves will gradually subside. Speculators will earn several billion dollars on this.
    Trading networks are also making money in a panic, but we must remember that the networks are sitting on the back. It is easy to squeeze solvent demand, but the commodity circulation will be squeezed, and the commodity is not money, its quantity is not so simple to increase. Do not simplify the situation, but do not dramatize it. In the 98th course collapsed 4 times! And not for six months, but for a couple of months. And what, there were a lot of starvation deaths? But after a year, industry made a breakthrough, which was then flooded with a stream of petrodollars. Break through, friends. We are Russians. You can’t catch us by Roquefort.
    1. Stinger
      Stinger 8 November 2014 19: 06
      +5
      I agree. And after that, everything will return to square one. Oil will rise in price, everyone will cling to the nipples of the oil pipe, and again the chatter about modernization, industrialization will begin. import substitution, etc. And an eternal Jew will wander around Russia without registering in hotels and scolding Putin until the sailor comes iron ore and gives everyone a kick.
      1. Mountain shooter
        Mountain shooter 8 November 2014 19: 25
        +3
        They won't snuggle anymore. Such "shake-ups" are dangerous for organizers, because if it does not kill the economy, then it makes it stronger, more independent (most of the impact scenarios become obvious). The VVP team is slowly being formed, tough claps on the head of some presumptuous oligarchs demonstrate that the government monitors compliance with the rules, regardless of the wallet. Yevtushenkov was not sent to a pre-trial detention center, but the wrongfully acquired Bashneft was taken away and kept under house arrest. Sapienti sat - and you can't call him a fool like Baturina.
    2. Penzyac
      Penzyac 8 November 2014 19: 42
      +3
      Quote: Mountain Shooter
      Bullshit, not an article. An incoherent set of inarticulate threats.

      I do not agree with this statement, the threats are real, although perhaps somewhat exaggerated, apparently the law of the genre.
      The dollar exchange rate no longer determines the structure of domestic demand. With ridiculous turnover on the stock exchange, it makes no sense to look at the exchange rate determined by speculators. Having a positive balance of payment transactions even now, with a falling oil price, it is strange to observe a fall in the currency. ...

      And here and further, perhaps, I agree with you.
      I did not buy the currency and I am not going to what will be, it will be. hi
      Better all the opening ... tongue
  13. pinecone
    pinecone 8 November 2014 18: 31
    +1
    Now liberal commentators are surprised that exchangers are crowded with people and exchange rubles for dollars

    Not true, do not crowd.
    1. Lelek
      Lelek 8 November 2014 19: 05
      +6
      Quote: pinecone
      Not true, do not crowd.


      Amen. In St. Petersburg, no exchanger has queues, and cashiers read fashion magazines from boredom. bully
  14. Fast
    Fast 8 November 2014 18: 31
    +1
    It's not so bad, there will be fewer guest workers, officials will be driven up, foreign firms will run up. For the people, these phenomena almost do not work, but they destroy currency reserves. We will not die of hunger with our resources!
    1. Lelek
      Lelek 8 November 2014 19: 06
      +2
      Quote: Fast
      guest workers


      What kind of vegetables are these? what
  15. Vundervaflya
    Vundervaflya 8 November 2014 18: 35
    +9
    With that mediocre policy of the Central Bank and the economic bloc of the government, everything written is not far from the truth. They shouted about import substitution of food - in fact, they simply changed suppliers, European to Asian and South American. They stated that sanctions are a chance for an unprecedented breakthrough in their own production - in fact, loans to this own production are issued at 15-20% per annum ... What are you guys talking about ?! I was surprised to learn that the Central Bank is still buying US debt bombs! That is, they sanction us, and we give them money. OK, so what? It seems to me that until the asshole in the economy of our country comes, they won’t do anything. This is so in our opinion ...
    1. Fast
      Fast 8 November 2014 18: 55
      +5
      ... They shouted about import substitution of food - in fact, they simply changed suppliers ...

      So we have little sanctions, but still have to raise the collective farm. And the new suppliers are not a problem, there are no such atrocious obligations to them as to European spiders.
    2. Cat man null
      Cat man null 8 November 2014 19: 26
      +1
      Quote: Wunderwaffle
      With that mediocre policy of the Central Bank and the economic bloc of the government, everything written near the truth.

      Mdya .. but I’ll say that most of what is written is bullshit .. wrapped in beautiful words .. so what? winked Only I will add - "it seems to me that", feel the difference smile

      Quote: Wunderwaffle
      They shouted about import substitution of food - in fact, they simply changed suppliers, European to Asian and South American.

      Um .. do you really think that import substitution is a one-day matter? I am sorry for you, if so ..

      Quote: Wunderwaffle
      They stated that sanctions are a chance for an unprecedented breakthrough in their own production - in fact, loans to this own production are issued at 15-20% per annum.

      This is for now .. google "nefterubel" - work in this direction already underway .. again - not one day (and even a year, perhaps) business.

      Quote: Wunderwaffle
      I was surprised to learn that the Central Bank is still buying US debt bombs!

      Um (again) .. Dear, in order to understand this, you must either have a special education (I immediately say - I am I have not), or read special articles, and very selectively.

      You are not concerned about this, KVM. But - you have your own opinion!

      With what I congratulate you smile
    3. Penzyac
      Penzyac 8 November 2014 19: 55
      0
      Quote: Wunderwaffle
      With that mediocre policy of the Central Bank and the economic bloc of the government, everything written is not far from the truth. They shouted about import substitution of food - in fact, they simply changed suppliers, European to Asian and South American. They stated that sanctions are a chance for an unprecedented breakthrough in their own production - in fact, loans to this own production are issued at 15-20% per annum ... What are you guys talking about ?! I was surprised to learn that the Central Bank is still buying US debt bombs! That is, they sanction us, and we give them money. OK, so what? It seems to me that until the asshole in the economy of our country comes, they won’t do anything. This is so in our opinion ...

      Here I am about the same (as, in my opinion, the author of the article). And then, here, many are dissolving: "all the prowlers ..., the guard ...!" Like, they encroached on their faith. Faith must not be blind, otherwise it is called fanaticism. hi
  16. Denis fj
    Denis fj 8 November 2014 18: 36
    +1
    We all, I hope, are aware that our country has headed for a self-sufficient economy, minimizing dependence on the dollar, food imports and consumer goods. But, one must understand that this process is painful. It is important that the government during this period does not abandon its people, as the EBN did in its time, but gives it the opportunity to earn and pay taxes. But the main thing now is to launch small and medium-sized businesses at full capacity, which would fill our market with products and goods. What needs to be done for this? That great analysts shut up with a rag, know yourself criticized. Take for example, analyze the possibility of cheap and long loans for business and mortgages. But not a single proposal, no analytics, the same thing will be interpreted in a mortar by these sorrows - experts. Well, you can consider the issue of returning lost money in banks to citizens' accounts as an irreplaceable reserve for 6 months. family life at the expense of the NWF. This will increase the capital of banks and lower interest rates on loans. People now do not have the funds to create savings in banks, to create airbags for their families. All our property in the NWF.
    1. Vundervaflya
      Vundervaflya 8 November 2014 18: 42
      +3
      Yes, all leading analysts are already shouting about what needs to be done and that, to put it mildly, not very competent people are at the helm of the Central Bank.
  17. wanderer987
    wanderer987 8 November 2014 18: 36
    +5
    The question is why the oil-adding and refining companies actually "relaxed" or they live on the "moon" on them that state regulation does not apply, the price tag for gasoline is constantly creeping up, regardless of the price of oil on the international market, it seems that do they want to receive the lost money through sales at a higher price of petroleum products on the domestic market, or does the FAS work only on command from the top ??? But this is a serious "bell" for those in power! In the past few years, not small funds have been invested in the modernization of the refinery; the owners publicly "beat themselves with a heel in the chest" that fuel prices will go down or do they think that people have a short memory? negative
  18. kostik1301
    kostik1301 8 November 2014 18: 42
    +5
    Power neftegazodengososov doing his job, and a ruble for them on a ram ...............
  19. Vundervaflya
    Vundervaflya 8 November 2014 18: 44
    +5
    By the way, the oil and gas sector is not bad at all from the fact that the dollar is already under fifty dollars - they sell it for $ and pay taxes in rubles.
    1. Penzyac
      Penzyac 8 November 2014 20: 09
      +1
      Quote: Wunderwaffle
      By the way, the oil and gas sector is not bad at all from the fact that the dollar is already under fifty dollars - they sell it for $ and pay taxes in rubles.

      Not only taxes, but also workers' wages and much more.
  20. Karabas
    Karabas 8 November 2014 18: 47
    -3
    Around the darkness, already horror! But our oil price is tied to the "Brend" grade. We went through wage increases in the early 90s, several times in three months, and prices tenfold. Lowering the interest rate is a gift to speculators, money will go offshore with even greater speed. Holding the ruble with the help of foreign exchange interventions is also not a panacea - the foreign exchange reserve will blow off faster than we see, however, which is what our "partners" are trying to achieve. At prices, demand creates supply. Yes, it will be hard, but if you do not show off, you can survive. For some reason, all experts consider themselves to be the right ones, and can find a way out of any situation. You might think that absolutely stupid experts are sitting in the government, although they are the same. I would like to ask the gentlemen of the experts: "And what did you, dear ones, bring into the world a white real, except for empty chatter?"
    1. wanderer987
      wanderer987 8 November 2014 21: 44
      -2
      And here's the topic Russian ruble is backed by gold so? So!!! How is the US dollar secured? not what is it tied in oil right? right!!! The IMF Commission at one time tried to inspect the US gold reserve after the banking crisis, how did it end? she was simply not allowed there under far-fetched pretexts, we conclude that all the fuss around a cut piece of paper not secured by some US property, which is called a "buck", is simply a speculative game, and players who lose their money during the game should themselves understand what they got involved ! It is necessary to play with those who have property in kind, and for such players in "debt" as the United States, I apologize, except for my "OCHKA" there is nothing to put! And we are not interested in it, let them "pound" into it!
  21. EREMA
    EREMA 8 November 2014 18: 47
    +2
    “I have no doubt that the financial sector will remain stable this year and next. The largest banks will strengthen, export corporations will also retain their positions. This will be spent on resources that should have been used to revive the economy. ”... but who would doubt it ...
  22. bugaev2005
    bugaev2005 8 November 2014 18: 49
    +3
    The state is to blame for the disappearance of the middle class, and the fact is that the leaders responsible for the development of entrepreneurship are people who never were entrepreneurs (in the true sense of the word), but were appointed by them, through family ties, acquaintances, proximity to the Komsomol and None of them went through the era of working in a garage or a barn, did not go out with a hunting rifle against bandits and did not tolerate humiliation from the police, tax officers, firefighters, SES, land inspection, inspectors from various committees, etc.
    The people themselves would have created the middle class and prosperous hardworking people, which are many in Russia, if they had not been hindered by power! It is necessary to simplify the very possibility of starting your own business to a simple notice that you want to engage in individual entrepreneurship. For five years, and preferably ten to impose a moratorium on any checks of individual entrepreneurs, with the exception of open crime.
    Allow people who have their own home and land to work and sell their products directly from home, with the exception of specially designated areas (central streets, highways, proximity to historic sites, etc.)
    Simplify the procedure for changing the purpose of the land plot to a minimum.
    Create across the country, even if not within the boundaries of settlements, markets where only locally produced goods will be traded. The right to trade in such a market should be given only to local producers and the rent on it should be either symbolic or absent in China!
    And our people in a few years will overtake both China and other countries in all types of production and feed themselves!
    Thanks to everyone who read this opus to the end.
  23. The comment was deleted.
  24. Vundervaflya
    Vundervaflya 8 November 2014 18: 53
    +4
    Quote: Karabas
    You would think that absolutely stupid experts are sitting in the government, although they are the same.

    Do you think George Bush is a genius of our time? Gee, that's the same. And by the way, this is not some minister there, but the whole US president. A high post is not a guarantee of the mind ...

    Quote: Fast
    So we have little sanctions, but still have to raise the collective farm. And new suppliers are not a problem, there are no such atrocious obligations to them as from previous spiders.

    Yes, from only these new suppliers seeing the situation and do not be fools raised prices. These are partners, as they say only business, nothing personal ...
  25. sv68
    sv68 8 November 2014 18: 54
    +2
    the only clever conclusion of the author of the article is that our government will not go into the Red Army, to drive such hooligans and go straight to Siberia-taiga. Now oil is getting cheaper and cheaper and for the next years they are pushing the budget where oil is worth 95 candy wrappers. In general, they don’t want to get involved in the economy!
    1. Cenij150814
      Cenij150814 8 November 2014 19: 31
      +2
      Quote: sv68
      -to drive such hanyig and straight to Siberia-taiga

      1) No need to drive all trash to Siberia, leave them to yourself!
      2) You have to be a little far-sighted - no manwb bastard, no problem!
  26. Tourist
    Tourist 8 November 2014 18: 56
    +2
    People are terrified of the horrors of the early 90s, forgetting that largely due to the default of 1998. Russian industry and agriculture began to emerge from a coma;
    when, as a result of the "subsidence" of the ruble, it turned out to be more profitable to produce our own, and not to carry imported ones.
    Now the situation is somewhat similar: an import substitution order has been given, the ruble has collapsed, and now, even if the sanctions are lifted, importing EU and state products will not be profitable.
    Shl. I still remember how during the Soviet times in the programs "Time" and "International Panorama" they talked about the panic on the Tokyo Stock Exchange, as soon as the yen strengthened against the dollar.
    If the dollar was given less than 100 yen, it was an extraordinary concert.
  27. SPACE
    SPACE 8 November 2014 19: 16
    +3
    The fall of the ruble has an impact on imports, on Western companies, but will spur export and import substitution, which means domestic production. An increase in the interest rate is the right move, there is a defense of domestic capital during the outflow of speculative funds, here are many fake banks closed up and tour agencies, the refusal to support the ruble exchange rate is also true, and neher without special need to travel abroad and buy clothes. Well, yes, there will be some turbulence and confusion with prices, not for long. Here, many asked to fight the liberal economy, with the dominance of traders and industrialization, well, they waited, the screamers now had an outstanding opportunity to prove their true patriotism and change their stuffy office, to the fresh expanse of beet fields or a lathe, enough to mess around on the Internet, came it’s time to do real creative work for the good of the country, unemployment will certainly not be threatened))) The article is the next nonsense of all-propalshchikov)))
    1. Cenij150814
      Cenij150814 8 November 2014 19: 59
      +1
      Quote: SPACE
      but it will spur export and import substitution, which means domestic production

      Dear you read the article, or is the "title" enough for you?
  28. Cenij150814
    Cenij150814 8 November 2014 19: 21
    +4
    Doctor of Economics, professor of Moscow State University Andrei Kolganov believes that, despite all the difficulties, this disaster can still be avoided

    I remember somewhere in February-March 24 an expert appeared in Russia XNUMX, tearfully argued that in the coming decades oil drop below $ 90 stupidity, and this simply can not be in nature!
  29. mikh-korsakov
    mikh-korsakov 8 November 2014 19: 27
    +2
    It is already clear to everyone that the USA is waging a fierce economic war against Russia. But in war, as in war. I do not understand the economic policy of our government. I do not understand the statements of the Minister of Economic Development Ulyukaev. He very clearly explains the reasons for our economic failures. But it was set up to organize economic development in the country and eliminate threats, and not gundos about the causes of failures, they are already known to all. Really the euro exchange rate of 60 and the discount rate of 9,5 have not yet convinced anyone of the perversity of the liberal rate. It is impossible to imagine that our government during World War II would give speculators the opportunity to speculate in the Reichsmark and take offense at the poor conditions for obtaining loans from the Reichsbank. I do not believe that the reason for the liberal course is the business of the connection between GDP. These ties arose in the 90s, when he was deputy Sobchak. who dumped all the current work on him. Our director then resolved issues with GDP, and not with Sobchak. But these connections are insignificant in comparison with the scale of the problems that he turns around. I believe that we must stop lingering with the comprador bourgeoisie: anyway, there is no sense in it. We need to stop building an insulted innocence in our relations: remembering the Iranian revolution, we can conclude that the dollar is not so omnipotent - under the influence of events in a much weaker country than Russia now - the dollar sank pretty much, and the United States began to depression. Further, it is now clear that Europe is not monolithic - an example: Finland, why not offer her a partnership that they cannot refuse. Here is the breakthrough of the blockade.
  30. Password
    Password 8 November 2014 19: 32
    0
    In strategic terms, the problem is that our economy is focused on the export of raw materials, oligarchic. Without a change in the structure of the economy in the long run, we will lose.

    The author's sober look at current realities ... regardless of whether anyone likes it or not.
  31. polkovnik manuch
    polkovnik manuch 8 November 2014 19: 49
    +1
    Remember the old joke about the drop in revenue in the brothel, CONCLUSION: the revenue does not fall from the fact that the beds are not foreign - it's just damn ... you need to change!
  32. Vadim237
    Vadim237 8 November 2014 19: 49
    +2
    What terrible problems, it has become profitable in our country to manufacture and repair what I am doing and I don’t feel a drop in demand for services. I think. that for a crisis, every private entrepreneur should have an airbag. Everything will come out of the crisis, our country will crawl out because it has not yet come out of such a c ....
    1. Penzyac
      Penzyac 8 November 2014 20: 38
      +1
      Quote: Vadim237
      What terrible problems, it has become profitable in our country to manufacture and repair what I am doing and I don’t feel a drop in demand for services. I think. that for a crisis, every private entrepreneur should have an airbag. Everything will come out of the crisis, our country will crawl out because it has not yet come out of such a c ....

      Of course, we’ll get out. Who is arguing? The only question is the price ...
  33. RED_ICE
    RED_ICE 8 November 2014 19: 55
    0
    Poverty, unemployment are increasing. Apparently, everything is going to the next revolution. I would not want to.
    1. Penzyac
      Penzyac 8 November 2014 21: 01
      +1
      Quote: RED_ICE
      Poverty, unemployment are increasing. Apparently, everything is going to the next revolution. I would not want to.

      Yes, God forbid! Revolutions are good only in engineering and technology. But with social revolutions, everything is incomparably more complicated and risky. There will always be both positive and negative consequences. Survivors of any social revolution will always be tormented by questions: what consequences of the revolution outweighed and whether it was worth starting?
      In general, for any revolution, the main thing is to determine: goals, methods, means, reasonable price.
      And then, as the people of Kiev were shouting, they say, whatever you like and whoever you like, but not the power of Yanukovych ... So they got completely indecent unknown, and besides, they were also fascist. Even in spite of all the parody of the "new" Ukrainian (Galician-Kiev) regime, people, unfortunately, are dying for real.
  34. faterdom
    faterdom 8 November 2014 20: 17
    +1
    A cliche article aimed at creating a currency panic, which my fellow citizens have not yet spun to. That goes against the plans of our "partners" to punish Russia and Putin.
    However, this attack is already over - after the 10th ruble will gradually strengthen.
  35. Normal ok
    Normal ok 8 November 2014 20: 28
    +2
    A long time ago, smart heads called for a change in the economic paradigm - to look for ways to move away from the petrodollar economy. But, as one senior Russian official said in response to a call to develop an alternative economy, "quieter, we are not badly settled anyway." God grant that now, when the cock has pecked, they finally begin to move.
  36. Siberian
    Siberian 8 November 2014 20: 34
    +3
    Is it poverty? I have been hearing about her for a long time, I can’t find yet. Not counting the media (it's full there). Unemployment? Do you seriously consider the work of all managers to be worthy? That's bullshit. Everything should return to its place. Normal mass work is agriculture and production, and not the complete trade of the whole country; a country cannot consist of artists, singers and dancers. Travel agencies went bankrupt, real jobs will replenish with former bearers.
  37. pantech15
    pantech15 8 November 2014 20: 48
    +1
    I still think that the excitement about the currency due to sanctions and the closure of access to foreign banks, as many as our companies write, owe 30 lard to foreign banks this year and 100 next year. True, I have a question why not give money from the NWF to these companies but take shares in return. Indeed, in Europe they are not fools and loans are not given to anyone anyway, so these companies are very liquid. Thus, the state would kill two birds with one stone, withdraw money from the economies of the USA and the EU and in fact nationalize these companies. And even if you look from the liberal side, I think these shares can always be sold after stabilization.
  38. VladimS
    VladimS 8 November 2014 20: 51
    0
    Author Andrei Ivanov

    I would write it easier: Everything is lost, everything is lost !!! (from)
    Why it was so voluminous to pour out. Unclear.
  39. Sanya Rus
    Sanya Rus 8 November 2014 20: 57
    +1
    The softer, the better, and we should not, if we cut the oligarchs, they are fat ...
  40. pantech15
    pantech15 8 November 2014 21: 03
    0
    Here we must be more careful Maidown with the same words began and that everything turned out mid
  41. smith7
    smith7 8 November 2014 21: 09
    +1
    Ancient Chinese wisdom: NI SY, which means "Be calm and serene, like a lotus flower at the foot of the Temple of Truth."
    If it happened "everything is lost", then it is necessary "NOR ...", draw up a plan and act according to the plan. It has not yet come "everything is lost", but I think a reasonable and harmonious combination of planned and market economies should improve the situation. However, we will not be allowed to work calmly in the medium term. And of course, the feeling that the government is a traitor does not leave. Such "vague doubts" torment me ...
  42. Idolum
    Idolum 8 November 2014 21: 35
    0
    !!! good !!! The text of your comment is too short and in the opinion of the site administration does not carry useful information.
  43. pantech15
    pantech15 8 November 2014 21: 39
    -1
    In my opinion, the most reliable indicator that all this is temporary is that banks do not stop giving loans at 20% and for a long time while the amounts are not small and friends took a mortgage in the week without any problems, and finally retailers do not panic banks and retailers, I think analysts do not eat bread so
  44. msv
    msv 8 November 2014 21: 55
    0
    Quote: zzz
    Next to another topic, repost:
    .......

    entaya


    I read it with great pleasure. It is logical and very possible.
  45. Alcoholic
    Alcoholic 8 November 2014 23: 08
    0
    Gee)))
    I’m surprised: are our economists really economists or enemies?
    The same rake?
    Ah, think broader how?
    Weak?
    Herd ... The task for the fifth grader: lope you need dollars so that all dollars are taken out of the country?)))
    In rzhachka will be if we "Maidan" begins.
    Any cattle are enough, there is meat))) wassat
  46. Zoldat_A
    Zoldat_A 9 November 2014 01: 18
    +4
    Over the past 15 years in Russia has grown not only the standard of living, but also a sense of national pride. Patriotic feelings grew along with the financial well-being of citizens, these two processes connected. Now, in economic terms, we are again in the "nineties." Respectively, in the near future, a sense of national pride will be trampled. It crashes down together with welfare. And this will be the basis of the political resistance of society.
    This, for example, is how anyone. My acquaintances have a son who lives in the United States and writes in social networks that "Motherland is where ... it's warm." Well, parenting error and stuff. The parents are to blame. So what, and we all are the same? If, then, I can’t fly to Turkey on vacation or take Kiuriu on credit, I don’t need such a country? Yes, of course, cheap grub is a good thing, but you can't confuse God's gift with scrambled eggs! We will not die of hunger anyway - we have not been poisoned with dust in the last 25 years. We will survive. But for national pride, it would be much more useful not to have cheap cucumbers, but, for a start, for example, to tear everyone to pieces in hockey as they did in the 70s. And rockets in Cuba, too, in my opinion, would help. And to calm Europe down - just once. And then they survived. The Prime Minister, without hesitation (or not thinking?), Says on TV that patriotic education programs for young people are temporarily suspended due to funding problems caused by the banking crisis in Cyprus. Awesome, the money for patriotic education lies in the Cypriot offshore !!! And after that we reason how national pride is connected with sausage ...
  47. Who
    Who 9 November 2014 02: 28
    +1
    v_e_mi comments on the material today at 2:05 #
    I absolutely do not understand the panic inflated among Russians over the dollar! Yes, in Russia
    1. A huge surplus in foreign trade! I quote the Central Bank of the Russian Federation: "The foreign trade surplus of the Russian Federation in the first eight months of 2014 increased by 2013% compared to the same period in 13,8 - to $ 135,471 billion against $ 119,025 billion." More details: http://www.rosbalt.ru/business/2014/10/10/1325644.html
    2. For most Russians - using Russian products, the dollar exchange rate does not matter. Price inflation
    3. A low ruble exchange rate is beneficial to the budget of the Russian Federation and many companies! There is an opportunity to invest more money in various infrastructure projects and in salary with pensions.
    4. It is impossible to make import substitution in 1 - 3 years, but the process is proceeding at a good pace. Flip through the feed of the site "Made by us". And that is why there are no mass layoffs, on the contrary!

    PS. And the sanctions themselves did not begin because of the Ukrainian events - this is an official reason. In my opinion, they started because Putin started to get rid of the dollar
    1. voyaka uh
      voyaka uh 9 November 2014 14: 27
      0
      The external debt of Russian companies is $ 700 billion.
      Of these, banks owe $ 200 billion.
      In 2015, Russian companies (including the largest
      state) must pay 120 billion dollars ...
  48. mamont5
    mamont5 9 November 2014 04: 18
    +1
    Quote: PENZYAC
    No, it’s just that the Amer’s trolls settled in the Central Bank of the Russian Federation and in the economic bloc of the Government, which the author warns about, warned, that means he’s armed.


    What is our Central Bank for a long time it is clear what to warn about it. But after reading the article there is only a feeling of disgust. So my opinion has not changed.
  49. Dejavu
    Dejavu 9 November 2014 05: 25
    +1
    Starve to death ?! Wahahaha, laughed ... Russians have been trying to destroy, corrode from our land for several hundred years, and so what? - Never mind. In every family there are grandparents and aunts with kitchen gardens. All or almost all have relatives in the village, and someone lives in the village himself, in which you must be a fierce idler to die of starvation. The high dollar exchange rate is speculation, for the sake of panic and a log of big dough. Our manufacturers thank Obama for his policy, because people began to take Ocean and Morozko with Evgo 4 times more actively. Our broilers are in great demand and who is doing this bad? Well, definitely not for us. So Glory to Obama and his sanctions, glory to the high dollar. There was an incentive to plant larger potatoes, which is also good. :)
  50. 31rus
    31rus 9 November 2014 07: 49
    0
    If there is no real turn to our economy and finances, by March we will be "singing" other songs