The Third World War, launched in 2011 by coups in the Arab-Muslim world, is entering its decisive stage. Iraq and Ukraine are divided. Syria expects a similar fate. No conferences and official statements, only secret diplomacy, which in moments of impotence is replaced by a military struggle between the parties to the conflict. It is a global conflict over resources that redraws the borders in the Middle East. Its waves are so strong that they go beyond North Africa, Eastern Europe and Central Asia, reaching the shores of the Arctic, which will help the planet meet the 40% increase in energy consumption by 2030 g. The Third World is a series of hybrid wars , political and cultural variables whose actions are determined by the context, varying from events in different parts of the world. The front line does not exist. The dividing line is determined not only by ethnic horizons, but also by spiritual values that are more mobile and less stable than consanguinity. In a broad sense, this is a war for Russia.
Networks confront networks and government armies simultaneously. Using the example of Iraq, we note that with its existence the network is pushing ethnic groups to form new states. Thus, the “Islamic State” turns Kurdistan into an independent state, which is supported by Israeli Prime Minister B. Netanyahu. 29 June 2014. An Israeli politician declares the need for an independent Kurdish state. The collaboration of Israel and Iraqi Kurdistan has never been so fruitful. According to the Izvestia newspaper, Erbil sent the first batch of oil to Tel Aviv at the end of June of this year. A non-random "coincidence" in time and space: it is 29 of June Salafi al-Baghdadi that proclaims "Caliphate". IG becomes a symbol of the Third World War, its culmination, uniting people from 80 countries under its banner. We are confronted not only with a terrorist organization, but with the international coalition, represented by individuals so far.
If the “Kurdish awakening” in Iraq is the result of a longstanding policy of the United States and Israel minimizing the Arab factor in supplying Middle Eastern oil to Europe and China, the “Russian awakening” in eastern Ukraine caused by the coup in Kiev is a result of attempts by Washington and Brussels to stop growing influence Moscow on the economy of the Old World. The elections to the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine on October 26 and the election of the leadership of the DPR and the LPR of 2 in November are two claims for legitimacy, which means the actual disintegration of Ukraine. The ultimate goal of this process is to freeze (with the help of sanctions, the weakening of the ruble and the fall in oil prices) oil and gas production projects carried out by the corporations Rosneft and ExxonMobil in the Arctic.
Iraq and Ukraine are followed by Syria, torn by a multilateral civil war. The Islamic State strengthens its position in northern and western Syria by capturing the largest gas field in the province of Homs on October 31. According to the Russia 24 television channel, aviation The United States flies at IS positions in Kobani and also in several areas of Iraq. Americans are worried about the fate of Kurdistan, on the state of affairs in which US relations with Turkey and Iran depend. The territorial integrity of these two regional powers is at stake. Given the fact that Homs is located 90 km from the Russian naval base in Tartus and 162 km from Damascus, the political and economic consequences of the breakthrough of the militants do not leave Russia indifferent. The main headquarters of the Russian Navy takes a principled position: “The Logistics Support Point (TUR) in Tartus will not only be maintained, but also significantly updated, taking into account the new political situation in Syria and the military situation in the Mediterranean region. Since 2015, we plan to begin updating the entire infrastructure of this item. By separate agreement with the Syrian side, we will strengthen all types of protection for this facility, including air defense and anti-sabotage defense. "
Fights for Homs - one of the bloodiest episodes of the civil war in Syria. IG makes its way to the Eastern Mediterranean, which will create the infrastructure for the supply of oil and gas from its Iraqi and Syrian territories to Europe. Then the role of Turkey as a transport corridor will be weakened. After establishing control over the Mediterranean coast of Syria, the next arena of struggle will be neighboring Lebanon, which will force Iran to officially go to war with the "Islamic State". The consequences will be disastrous for the entire region. Iran’s participation in this fight will call into question not only the participation of the Gulf monarchies in energy supplies to Europe and China, but also their very existence.
Lebanon is already involved in the conflict. According to ITAR-TASS, in the mountainous region of Kalyamun between Homs and Damascus, Syrian pilots attacked gangs of mercenaries leaking from Lebanon from the air. Their targets were the gorges, along which the militants made their way to Syria from the Lebanese district of Ersal. With reference to the Syrian TV channel "Surya" ITAR-TASS states: in Deir ez-Zor on the Euphrates, the Syrian Air Force attacked the positions of the IG in Mukhasan, Abu Omar and M-Meye. The troops launched a counter-offensive in the area and came close to the Tim-Oil oil field seized by the militants.
Iran is increasing its activity in the region through the Yemeni Shiites, who are heading for the squeezing of the enemy’s sea transport arteries. The transit of tanker oil from the Arab countries of the Persian Gulf is under threat after the Shiite group Ansarulla seizes the key port of Hodeidah on the Arabian Peninsula, threatening to block the Bab El-Mandeb strategic strait linking the Gulf of Aden and the Red and Mediterranean Sea. According to Kommersant, Sunni monarchies urgently consider the creation of a joint Navy. Recall that about 4 million barrels of oil passes through this strait every day. And this is only the first answer of Iran to the militants from IS. Given that the Strait of Hormuz (through which 17 million barrels of oil passes daily) is also controlled by Iran, there is no room for maneuver in Sunni monarchies. Their hopes are laid on the "Islamic State", which is breaking through to the Mediterranean.
The Echo of the Third World War also reaches China, in Muslim regions (XUAR) of which large-scale conflicts flare up on ethnoreligious soil. Uyghur separatism risks turning Northwestern China into the epicenter of a bloody hybrid war. The engine of this tragedy is Pakistan, whose integrity is also in question.
The international system is undergoing the most significant changes since the fall of the Yalta-Potsdam order. No authority and principles, only the right of the strong. And the most important thing is a war that no one has declared to anyone.
Sarkis Tsaturyan. Third World: Preliminary Results
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