Fahraddin Aboszoda. Independence inside: Iran's "demographic weights"
One of the founding fathers of demography, the French scientist A. Guillaard, viewed demography not only as “natural and social history the human race ”, as the“ general movement of the population ”, but also as an important indicator of the“ physical, civil, intellectual and moral state ”of society. Based on this, we decided to analyze the demographic situation in modern Iran in order to understand the moral state of Iranian society in this critical period for the country.
Now the population of Iran is 78.637.897 people. (50,7% are males and 49,3% are females). The peak in Iran’s population growth was reached in 1983 (4,16% compared with the previous year). Over the past decade, this figure has never exceeded 2%. And in 2014, it was only 1,63%. The total increase in the population of Iran, taking into account natural processes (fertility and mortality) and total migration, is approximately 953.777 people. in year. In this case, it is expected that the total migration will be negative and will be - 9.935 people. Thus, Iran has already lost the primacy in the world in terms of population growth. Note that this happened, among other things, as a result of the “one child is good, two is enough” policy pursued by the state since 1989 (which, by the way, contradicted the basic principles of Islam).
Considering that maintaining this trend will lead to the aging of the population, and then completely to its reduction, Rahbar (the spiritual leader of Iran) in 2012, said that it was time to abandon government regulation of population growth. According to him, the population of the country should be 150-200 million people. After this statement, the Ministry of Health of Iran confirmed the rejection of the twenty-year birth control policy in the country. Moreover, the state has allocated 10 billions of dollars to support large families and encourage fertility. But the results are not encouraging.
The literacy rate of the population older than 6 years is 86,5%, while in the age group from 6 to 29 years the literacy is 96,5%. The age proportions of the population are as follows: up to 14 years - 44%, 15-64 years -52%, older than 65 years - 4%. Because of this, the population of Iran is the “youngest” in the world. But if we consider this indicator from the point of view of the level of unemployed among the youth, it turns out that it also has its negative sides for the current Iran.
According to tradingeconomics.com, in 2014, the unemployment rate in Iran is 10,7% (9% among men and 19,4% among women) of the total number (21.107.245 people) of the working population (a year ago this figure was equal to 10,5%) . At the same time, according to unofficial data, this figure is 19-20%. The Iranian Labor Minister, Ali Rabbey, told Mehr recently that about six million people in Iran cannot find work, and added: “If the current trend continues, the number of unemployed will reach 2021 million people in 10 year”. The average unemployment rate among the urban population is 12%, and among the rural - 7,5%. At the same time, “youth unemployment” is over 24,8% (21% among men, and 43,4% among women), and according to unofficial data - up to 40%. The high unemployment rate has partly led to an increase in crime and the spread of other antisocial phenomena in the country. The number of thefts and robberies has recently increased in Iran, said the country's deputy police chief, Brigadier General Ahmad Reza Radan (Asriran).
The situation with the distribution of drugs is of particular concern. Despite the fact that 74% of death sentences are used against drug traffickers, the number of drug addicts is increasing every day in the country. According to Iran’s head of the Drug Enforcement Agency, Taha Taheri, in an interview with Nezavisimaya Gazeta, 98% of all opium seized in the world is from Iran. According to statistics, about 30% of drugs enter the territory of Iran. From this volume, 1 / 3 can be confiscated. Addicts in Iran, according to the Director of the Research and Training Center of the Iranian Illicit Drug Control Headquarters, Hamid Serami, are 1,325 million people. (2,65% of the total population). But official representatives often contradict each other in this matter. Thus, 31 August 2014, the Vice-President of the Islamic Republic of Iran on women's and family issues, Shahindoht Movlaverdi, said that 10% of all women in the country are drug addicts (3.876 thousand). The website of the Iranian Parliament reports that 30, thousands of secondary school students, are addicts and use various drugs. According to official statistics of law enforcement agencies, on average in Iran per day 1369 kilograms of narcotic substances are withdrawn from trafficking. In 2012, 500 tons of narcotic substances were seized in the country, an average of 57 kilograms per hour. Another 700 of thousands of people use drugs without being addicted to drugs. The average age of drug addicts in Iran is 21. Because of the drugs, Iranian 11 dies daily.
Of course, this situation cannot but exert its negative influence on the institution of the family in this Muslim country, where the role of the family is traditionally high in society. So, last year in Iran, a record number of divorces was recorded: during this period, more than one out of every five marriages in the Islamic Republic fell apart. According to IRNA, over the past seven years, divorce rates in Iran have increased from 12% to 21%. In large cities, every third marriage breaks up. In 2013, 757.197 marriages were registered in Iran (which is 4,4% less than the previous period). At the same time, 158.753 couples divorced: this is more by 4,6% than in the previous period. At the same time, the head of the National Registration Bureau of Iran, Ahmad Toysarkani, told the agency that the main reasons for the increase in the number of divorces in the Islamic Republic are: intervention of the family of one of the spouses, failure to comply with the financial conditions of marriage, poverty, drugs and domestic violence. All this suggests that the current moral and psychological situation in the country, which is a direct result of a complex demographic and economic situation, can hardly set up an optimistic mood, on the contrary, in the event of an exacerbation of the situation, it can play a cruel joke with the current regime whole Figuratively speaking, these "demographic weights" of Iran will be able to pull the country to the bottom of the abyss.
The authorities of the country still see a way to correct the situation in the "tightening the screws." According to the UN Special Representative for Human Rights in Iran, Ahmed Shahid, published last Friday, over 6 months of the current year in Iran more than 400 people are hanged. Of these, 8 people have not yet reached 18 years. The UN notes that H. Rouhani was unable to take serious steps towards improving the human rights situation, and the situation has deteriorated further. (Secretary of the Iranian Human Rights Council, Muhammad Javad Larijani, accused the UN of using “incorrect methods of collecting information”, “falsifying facts”, and naming “terrorists as fighters for human rights,” writes FARS).
Here we should talk about one more thing: the Iranian authorities have recently been willingly spreading information that according to the results of population polls, up to 90% of citizens support the rapprochement line with the West, while Russia is not very trusting. In our opinion, this does not mean that the majority of Iranians are pro-Western. Most likely, this is a protest attitude of citizens towards the policies of the current authorities. In the views of Iranians, Russia supports the current Iranian regime, and Western countries are trying to change it. If to be completely fair, then it turns out that the Iranians support the course of rapprochement with the West not because or not only because they are all so “in love" with it (especially knowing well what is happening in those neighboring countries of Iran the troops of the countries of the Western bloc are already led by the United States), and, conversely, they do not trust Russia, because they so “do not like” this country. Apparently, this is explained by the fact that Western countries are going to change the current regime in Iran, and Russia, in the understanding of ordinary Iranians, supports the country's leadership. In this regard, the question of why Russia “does not work” within Iran acquires particular relevance. At the same time, 70 satellite TV channels created in the West have broadcasts in Persian day and night and are quite popular in Iran. Finally, no pro-Russian official can be found in the current government of Iran. In such conditions, it is not at all necessary to expect that the population will be pro-Russian.
Summing up what has been said on this topic and proceeding from the experience of the “color revolutions”, we can safely assume that with any destabilization of the situation, Western states can hope for strong support from within, which should be a very alarming signal for the Iranian leadership.
Now the population of Iran is 78.637.897 people. (50,7% are males and 49,3% are females). The peak in Iran’s population growth was reached in 1983 (4,16% compared with the previous year). Over the past decade, this figure has never exceeded 2%. And in 2014, it was only 1,63%. The total increase in the population of Iran, taking into account natural processes (fertility and mortality) and total migration, is approximately 953.777 people. in year. In this case, it is expected that the total migration will be negative and will be - 9.935 people. Thus, Iran has already lost the primacy in the world in terms of population growth. Note that this happened, among other things, as a result of the “one child is good, two is enough” policy pursued by the state since 1989 (which, by the way, contradicted the basic principles of Islam).
Considering that maintaining this trend will lead to the aging of the population, and then completely to its reduction, Rahbar (the spiritual leader of Iran) in 2012, said that it was time to abandon government regulation of population growth. According to him, the population of the country should be 150-200 million people. After this statement, the Ministry of Health of Iran confirmed the rejection of the twenty-year birth control policy in the country. Moreover, the state has allocated 10 billions of dollars to support large families and encourage fertility. But the results are not encouraging.
The literacy rate of the population older than 6 years is 86,5%, while in the age group from 6 to 29 years the literacy is 96,5%. The age proportions of the population are as follows: up to 14 years - 44%, 15-64 years -52%, older than 65 years - 4%. Because of this, the population of Iran is the “youngest” in the world. But if we consider this indicator from the point of view of the level of unemployed among the youth, it turns out that it also has its negative sides for the current Iran.
According to tradingeconomics.com, in 2014, the unemployment rate in Iran is 10,7% (9% among men and 19,4% among women) of the total number (21.107.245 people) of the working population (a year ago this figure was equal to 10,5%) . At the same time, according to unofficial data, this figure is 19-20%. The Iranian Labor Minister, Ali Rabbey, told Mehr recently that about six million people in Iran cannot find work, and added: “If the current trend continues, the number of unemployed will reach 2021 million people in 10 year”. The average unemployment rate among the urban population is 12%, and among the rural - 7,5%. At the same time, “youth unemployment” is over 24,8% (21% among men, and 43,4% among women), and according to unofficial data - up to 40%. The high unemployment rate has partly led to an increase in crime and the spread of other antisocial phenomena in the country. The number of thefts and robberies has recently increased in Iran, said the country's deputy police chief, Brigadier General Ahmad Reza Radan (Asriran).
The situation with the distribution of drugs is of particular concern. Despite the fact that 74% of death sentences are used against drug traffickers, the number of drug addicts is increasing every day in the country. According to Iran’s head of the Drug Enforcement Agency, Taha Taheri, in an interview with Nezavisimaya Gazeta, 98% of all opium seized in the world is from Iran. According to statistics, about 30% of drugs enter the territory of Iran. From this volume, 1 / 3 can be confiscated. Addicts in Iran, according to the Director of the Research and Training Center of the Iranian Illicit Drug Control Headquarters, Hamid Serami, are 1,325 million people. (2,65% of the total population). But official representatives often contradict each other in this matter. Thus, 31 August 2014, the Vice-President of the Islamic Republic of Iran on women's and family issues, Shahindoht Movlaverdi, said that 10% of all women in the country are drug addicts (3.876 thousand). The website of the Iranian Parliament reports that 30, thousands of secondary school students, are addicts and use various drugs. According to official statistics of law enforcement agencies, on average in Iran per day 1369 kilograms of narcotic substances are withdrawn from trafficking. In 2012, 500 tons of narcotic substances were seized in the country, an average of 57 kilograms per hour. Another 700 of thousands of people use drugs without being addicted to drugs. The average age of drug addicts in Iran is 21. Because of the drugs, Iranian 11 dies daily.
Of course, this situation cannot but exert its negative influence on the institution of the family in this Muslim country, where the role of the family is traditionally high in society. So, last year in Iran, a record number of divorces was recorded: during this period, more than one out of every five marriages in the Islamic Republic fell apart. According to IRNA, over the past seven years, divorce rates in Iran have increased from 12% to 21%. In large cities, every third marriage breaks up. In 2013, 757.197 marriages were registered in Iran (which is 4,4% less than the previous period). At the same time, 158.753 couples divorced: this is more by 4,6% than in the previous period. At the same time, the head of the National Registration Bureau of Iran, Ahmad Toysarkani, told the agency that the main reasons for the increase in the number of divorces in the Islamic Republic are: intervention of the family of one of the spouses, failure to comply with the financial conditions of marriage, poverty, drugs and domestic violence. All this suggests that the current moral and psychological situation in the country, which is a direct result of a complex demographic and economic situation, can hardly set up an optimistic mood, on the contrary, in the event of an exacerbation of the situation, it can play a cruel joke with the current regime whole Figuratively speaking, these "demographic weights" of Iran will be able to pull the country to the bottom of the abyss.
The authorities of the country still see a way to correct the situation in the "tightening the screws." According to the UN Special Representative for Human Rights in Iran, Ahmed Shahid, published last Friday, over 6 months of the current year in Iran more than 400 people are hanged. Of these, 8 people have not yet reached 18 years. The UN notes that H. Rouhani was unable to take serious steps towards improving the human rights situation, and the situation has deteriorated further. (Secretary of the Iranian Human Rights Council, Muhammad Javad Larijani, accused the UN of using “incorrect methods of collecting information”, “falsifying facts”, and naming “terrorists as fighters for human rights,” writes FARS).
Here we should talk about one more thing: the Iranian authorities have recently been willingly spreading information that according to the results of population polls, up to 90% of citizens support the rapprochement line with the West, while Russia is not very trusting. In our opinion, this does not mean that the majority of Iranians are pro-Western. Most likely, this is a protest attitude of citizens towards the policies of the current authorities. In the views of Iranians, Russia supports the current Iranian regime, and Western countries are trying to change it. If to be completely fair, then it turns out that the Iranians support the course of rapprochement with the West not because or not only because they are all so “in love" with it (especially knowing well what is happening in those neighboring countries of Iran the troops of the countries of the Western bloc are already led by the United States), and, conversely, they do not trust Russia, because they so “do not like” this country. Apparently, this is explained by the fact that Western countries are going to change the current regime in Iran, and Russia, in the understanding of ordinary Iranians, supports the country's leadership. In this regard, the question of why Russia “does not work” within Iran acquires particular relevance. At the same time, 70 satellite TV channels created in the West have broadcasts in Persian day and night and are quite popular in Iran. Finally, no pro-Russian official can be found in the current government of Iran. In such conditions, it is not at all necessary to expect that the population will be pro-Russian.
Summing up what has been said on this topic and proceeding from the experience of the “color revolutions”, we can safely assume that with any destabilization of the situation, Western states can hope for strong support from within, which should be a very alarming signal for the Iranian leadership.
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