Russia occupies a stable second place in the world market of multi-functional fighters
For the MAKS-2011 showroom, TSAMTO prepared an updated cost analysis of the global market for multifunctional fighters for the past 8-year period (2003-2010) and a forecast for the upcoming 4-year period (2011-2014).
As in 2003-2010, and in 2011-2014. Russia occupied, and will occupy a stable second place after the United States.
This analysis takes into account the cost of all deliveries - new aircraft, licensed programs, repair, modernization and delivery from the Armed Forces of the exporting countries.
Estimation of the value of the global fighter market in the 2003-2010.
According to TSAMTO, the global volume of actual exports of multi-purpose fighters in terms of value in 2003-2010. amounted to just over 69 billion dollars. The maximum export volume of fighters was recorded in 2007 - 10,844 billion dollars, which is 15,7% of the total value of world fighter exports for the 8-year period under consideration. The minimum annual export volume of fighters was recorded in 2009, 7,509 billion dollars, which is due to the transfer of a number of supplies due to the global economic crisis 2008-2009. Already in 2010, the global fighter market increased by more than 1 billion dollars and amounted to 8,681 billion dollars. However, this is substantially less than the 2007 record of the year.
First place in terms of value of exports of multifunctional fighters for the period 2003-2010. occupy the US - 36,197 billion dollars, representing 52,46% of world exports in this category. The maximum value of exports of US fighters was recorded in the period 2005 – 2007, respectively, 5,742 billion dollars, 6,328 billion dollars and 5,834 billion dollars. Over the next two years, there was a sharp decline in sales - 3,841 billion dollars and 2008 and 2,108 billion dollars in 2009. In 2010, the United States achieved sales in the amount of 4,624 billion dollars (53,27% of the total global fighter exports to 2010 g.).
Second place in the 2003-2010 period. ranked Russia - 14,732 billion dollars (21,35% of the world market). The peak in the fall in sales was in 2006, 752 million dollars. In the future, Russia managed to compensate for the losses it suffered in the Chinese market, however, so far, to the level of record-for-value 2003-2004. failed to exit. In 2010, the value of Russia's exports in this category was 1,464 billion dollars (16,86% of the world market).
Third place in the 2003-2010 period. takes the UK - 6,334 billion dollars (9,18%). In 2010, UK exports amounted to 1,56 billion dollars (17,97% of the market). The UK has emerged as the leading exporter of multipurpose fighter aircraft over the 8 summer period following the last four years.
Fourth place in the period 2003-2010. ranked France - 5,551 billion dollars (8,04% of the market). In 2010, France’s exports amounted to the entire 289 million, and in 2009, zero exports were recorded in this category. Due to low export figures over the past three years, France has given way to the third position in the world ranking of Great Britain.
Fifth place in the period 2003-2010. takes Sweden - 2,46 billion dollars (3,57% of the market). In fact, Sweden entered the world market of fighters only in 2005. Zero exports were recorded in 2010.
Sixth place in the period 2003-2010. takes China - 1,073 billion dollars (1,56% of the market). China entered the leading group in the 8-year period based on the results of the last three years and bypassed Israel. In 2010, China’s exports in this category are estimated at 300 million dollars.
Israel ranks seventh with an export volume of 2003-2010. in the amount of 911 million dollars. In 2010, Israel’s exports in this category amounted to 285 million dollars.
Among the major exporters in this segment by period 2003-2010. The Netherlands (353 million dollars), Germany (339 million dollars), Ukraine (334 million dollars), Belgium (129 million dollars), Belarus (123 million dollars) and Switzerland (110 million dollars) should also be noted. .
In general, the category of multifunctional fighters in 2003-2010. delivered 25 countries (included the delivery of new fighters, licensed programs, modernization, repair and delivery from the Air Force of the exporting country).
Forecast of the value of the world fighter market in 2011-2014
According to the existing order book as of 1 in June this year, the global export volume of multi-role fighters will be at least 2011 billion dollars in 13,991, 2012 billion dollars in 12,371, 2013 billion dollars in 8,363 and 2014. - 18,756 billion dollars. This is a very sharp increase in the market compared to the situation in 2003-2010.
As of 1 June 2011, the global volume of contractual obligations for the supply of multi-purpose fighters in 2011-2014. (including tenders) is 53,482 billion dollars.
According to the existing portfolio of orders, the supply of US multi-purpose fighters in 2011 will be at least 6,384 billion dollars, in 2012 - 5,847 billion dollars, in 2013 - 2,665 billion dollars and in 2014 - 9,848 billion dollars. The total amount of US contractual obligations for the supply of multi-role fighters as of 1 June 2011 with delivery in 2011-2014. (first place in the ranking) is 24,743 billion dollars (46,26% of the global package of orders for delivery in 2011-2014).
The volume of Russian exports in 2011, according to the existing order book, is projected at 3,872 billion dollars, in 2012 - 3,401 billion dollars, in 2013 - 1,97 billion dollars and in 2014 - 2,897 billion dollars. The total amount of contractual obligations of Russia as of 1 June 2011 with delivery in 2011-2014 (second place in the ranking) is 12,14 billion dollars (22,7%).
The third place is occupied by the UK - 2,053 billion dollars in 2011, 1,723 billion dollars in 2012, 1,723 billion dollars in 2013, and 1,477 billion dollars in 2014, the total amount of UK contractual obligations as of 1 June 2011, s Delivery to 2011-2014 is 6,975 billion dollars (13,04%).
The fourth place is taken by the category “unknown” (tenders, the results of which have not yet been announced). The volume of supply in this category in 2012 was estimated at 100 million dollars, at 2013 - 120 million dollars, at 2014 - 2,617 billion dollars. Total shipments for this category in 2011-2014. is 2,837 billion dollars (5,3%).
The fifth place is occupied by China. China’s total contractual obligations as of 1 June 2011 shipped with 2011-2014. is 2,6 billion dollars (4,86%).
The sixth place is occupied by France. Total contractual obligations of France as of 1 June 2011 with delivery in 2011-2014 is 1,905 billion dollars (3,56%).
It should be noted that this calculation (as of 1 June 2011) does not include the contract signed at the end of July 2011 for the modernization of the Mirage-2000Н fighter fleet of the Indian Air Force. Part of the supply of the submitted contract will have to be before 2014, that is, France will move higher in the ranking.
The Indian Air Force signed a contract with Dassau Aviation and Thales to upgrade the 51 of the Mirage-2000Н fighter on July 29. The cost of the contract signed with Dassot and Thales is estimated at 2,4 billion dollars. The contract provides for the modernization of the Mirage-2000 fighter jets, as well as the delivery of more than 400 MICA missiles for them.
The seventh place is occupied by Sweden. Total contractual obligations of Sweden as of 1 June 2011 with delivery in 2011-2014 is 1,675 billion dollars (3,13%).
Among other countries in the package of orders for the supply of multi-purpose fighters in 2011-2014. It should be noted Israel (265 million dollars), the Netherlands (165 million dollars), South Africa (80 million dollars) and Turkey (75 million dollars).
If, as a result, the tender for the MMRCA program without excesses comes to a logical conclusion and one of the shortlisted companies (Dassault Aviation or Eurofighter) is named the winner, a significant increase in the share of one of the Western European fighters on the world market should be expected with 2015 year and on.
A full report on the global fighter market in 2003-2010. and 2011-2014 published in the World Trade weapons»No.7.
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