Military Review

Termination of negotiations with the DNI and the LC will lead to the further disintegration of Ukraine

25
Termination of negotiations with the DNI and the LC will lead to the further disintegration of UkraineNovember 2 in the LC and the DNI held the first elections for these unrecognized states. They passed in a tense situation, with periodic truce violations and international pressure. However, everything went quite well - with good organization, high turnout and, most importantly, without serious accidents. The elections actually legitimized the leadership of the republics. The head of the DPR was the current Prime Minister Alexander Zakharchenko, and the LNR was headed by Igor Plotnitsky.

Ukraine’s reaction to the elections was hysterical, which, of course, was to be expected. President of Ukraine Petro Poroshenko has already hurried to declare the promised “adequate” answer - today (4 November) the National Security Council will consider abolishing the law on the peculiarities of local self-government in certain districts of Donetsk and Lugansk regions.

In fact, this means a complete cessation of all negotiations between the conflicting parties. If there is at least some logic in the actions of the leadership of Ukraine, then the next action after the abolition of this law should be a withdrawal from the truce and an attempt at military revenge. Otherwise, it means freezing the conflict with the transformation of the LPR and the DPR into something similar to Transnistria, Nagorno-Karabakh, etc.

Another thing is that, unlike Transdniestria, the republics have a common border with Russia and a huge population for the unrecognized republics (about 5 million people) and industrial potential (also working mostly in the Russian Federation). In this situation, these formations are unlikely to “hang” for a long time in an unrecognized form. And with the final success of the formation of these two new states (the standard of living and stability is higher than in Ukraine), several more regions of Ukraine will certainly want to join the project of New Russia. Essentially this will mean the end stories the state under the name of Ukraine (in the form we represent it), since the already formed armed forces of the LPR and DPR and the flow of new volunteers will immediately come to the aid of the new rebels.

The logical way, which means a new round of active military clashes, also does not bode well for Ukraine. Its armed forces will be waiting for an offensive campaign in a territory with a hostile population and in winter conditions. And all this with an acute shortage of finances and without any particular advantage in military equipment, which the "successful" APU managed to lose in battles with irregular units of the LC and the DPR. By the way, the armed forces of the unrecognized republics started a war with several hundred rifle and anti-tank units. weaponsand finished it with tanks, BMP and artillery, not much inferior in quality and quantity of APU. The very same armed forces of Ukraine closer to the signing of the ceasefire began to withdraw from conservation and restore the very old equipment. The country's air force suffered the most severe losses, having practically lost its combat effectiveness.

It’s not hard to guess what the resumption of the active phase of the military conflict can lead to in this situation. Losses of the advancing party may be several times higher than during the summer campaign. You will not have to hope for any help from the local population in difficult winter conditions. The actions of reconnaissance and sabotage groups and partisans that disrupt the supply of troops with fuel, food, clothing and ammunition in such a situation can lead to frostbite among the personnel and the mass of non-combat losses. An even greater decline and so low morale of the soldiers of the Ukrainian Armed Forces will probably lead to mass desertion.

Unfortunately, for the population of the LPR and the DPR, there will also be little good - only those who come to their senses will find themselves in complete humanitarian catastrophe, since there are no doubts that the Ukrainian Armed Forces will hit civilian communications again.

As far as the armed forces of the LC and the DPR can advance, if they can organize a counterattack, it is difficult to predict. However, it is clear that the threat of losing Mariupol and Slavyansk will arise before the APU rather quickly.

For the current authorities in Kiev, such a scenario can be fatal. It is unlikely that they will be able to stay in their chairs after a repetition of shame, and even on a larger scale. In addition, it will no longer be possible to write off what happened to the unreadiness and "transitivity" of the government. The economic consequences of renewed conflict will also be dire.

From the above, we can conclude: the termination of negotiations and the breakdown of agreements with the LC and the DPR will be another blatant mistake of Kiev in any scenario - both when the conflict turns into frozen and when the war resumes. In fact, Ukraine finds itself in a stalemate situation, signifying a likely further disintegration of the country — either slow or fast.

Another thing that causes little doubt is that the Western sanctions against the Russian Federation in any of the above options for the development of the situation will not be lifted for a long time, and perhaps even toughened. Perhaps this is the real purpose of Kiev puppets, whom the fate of their own state, apparently, has long been no longer interested. From the very moment of coming to power, all they do is take steps to break up their state. It suffices only to recall that initially the population of the former Donetsk and Lugansk regions required only small preferences — the official Russian language in their territories and the election of governors. What led the criminal actions of the Kiev authorities, we all know very well.
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http://www.regnum.ru/news/polit/1862718.html
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  1. Mikhail m
    Mikhail m 5 November 2014 06: 15
    +10
    Further collapse of Ukraine is inevitable regardless of the state of negotiations.
    1. Uncle lee
      Uncle lee 5 November 2014 06: 21
      +11
      The Ukrainian authorities do not want to negotiate. My heart feels that a new phase of the ATO will begin ... But what it will end with, I think, is the complete collapse of Ukraine.
      1. Horst78
        Horst78 5 November 2014 07: 22
        +5
        Quote: Uncle Lee
        The Ukrainian authorities do not want to negotiate. My heart feels that a new phase of the ATO will begin ... But what it will end with, I think, is the complete collapse of Ukraine.

        And I hope that they understood that Donbass cannot be returned to them, since they have already hinted that they want to buy coal from Donbass. And it is not profitable for them (their owners) to destroy the remnants of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. It is better to keep the tense line of contact in order to "sanction" Russia, etc.
      2. The comment was deleted.
      3. siberalt
        siberalt 5 November 2014 09: 15
        +1
        Anti-terrorist operation against self-proclaimed states where are democratically elected authorities? Let not recognized, but the whole world knows about it. Now they first need to be recognized in the UN as terrorist entities, then ATO can be stuck. And this is already called the Ukrainian military intervention. New Russia will not go on the offensive either. There is no excuse. Nobody attacks her. The junta also understands this. Long negotiations will begin, but we won’t guess what it will lead to. Now the move is for the USA.
        1. pahom54
          pahom54 5 November 2014 09: 44
          +1
          Quote: siberalt
          Now they first need to be recognized by the UN as terrorist entities,


          In order to do this, there is no need for a special mind ... the USA will say that the UN Secretary General will slap his lips, put a signature and a stamp on a piece of paper ...

          Boeing then Malaysian Russia shot down ??? A war of aggression against a sovereign state leads ??? Air borders of sovereign states violates ??? Do you still have to re-read what is recognized as the reality of THEM? ...
        2. ermolai
          ermolai 5 November 2014 14: 35
          0
          Quote: siberalt
          New Russia will not go on the offensive either. There is no excuse.

          but no one is stopping Novorossia from helping the Kharkov partisans, and in general, so that the earth burns under the feet of the banderlogs, for Odessa for the innocently killed everywhere and their punishment is always overtaken. and hang them whenever possible, for clarity, for violence against women, and it doesn’t matter if this bastard is raped or not. empty answer for a friend.
    2. Sid.74
      Sid.74 5 November 2014 06: 29
      +1
      Already today (November 4), the NSDC will consider the question of repealing the law on the peculiarities of local self-government in certain areas of Donetsk and Lugansk regions.

      And they also hinted at recalling the Minsk agreements. Well then, it will be clear to everyone that Powder is not at all for peace! The question of gas also weighs in the air!
      For about 1.4 billion they hinted, but ours have not yet confirmed the transfer of money!
      And at the moment, there is no sufficient quantity of coal and gas, no fuel and lubricants for the Armed Forces!
      In addition to worsening the humanitarian situation in the DPR and LPR, they will not achieve anything.
      The fighters of the National Guard and Terbats returning from the ATO have already started shooting and tearing in territories outside the ATO. Here is a surprise for the United Ukrainians.
      For that fought for it and ran.
      1. ermolai
        ermolai 5 November 2014 14: 43
        0
        it
        Quote: Sid.74
        Here is a surprise for Ukrainians.
        For that fought for it and ran.
        not supraise, this medicine is for the especially stubborn, and the geyropu expects a lot of pleasant things, especially psheks, they were especially active in the Maidan, they didn’t have time to dig a ditch, they don’t have a rabbit-digger.
    3. Donch4ak
      Donch4ak 5 November 2014 07: 17
      +2
      it’s not decay anymore, it’s a decomposition of a dead body ... The fact that Ukraine has died and one should not expect anything good begins to be seen by many in Dnepropetrovsk, Kiev, and Lviv ...
    4. Finches
      Finches 5 November 2014 07: 24
      +2
      If this is not the goal of GDP, then I made a mistake somewhere, but I don’t want to make a mistake!
      I think that the healthy part of Russian society also wants the collapse of this under-state, into natural, historically formed, cohesive areas for centuries! Western Ukraine, under the name of Galicia, takes a vigorous step wherever it wants, the lands of the left-bank Ukraine, the Odessa region go to the Customs Union for starters, Kiev, for a while may become a free city under the leadership of some kind of burnt lad! Rusyns make their choice in the west, and the impotent Zaporizhzhya region makes their choice in the east ... That's where it is!
    5. Giant thought
      Giant thought 5 November 2014 09: 26
      0
      The Kiev junta is in fact doing everything possible to disintegrate Ukraine as a state.
    6. Mairos
      Mairos 5 November 2014 13: 38
      0
      Not sure. It all depends on how the "big players" agree. Or they won't agree.
    7. The comment was deleted.
    8. Denis fj
      Denis fj 5 November 2014 20: 53
      0
      The legitimacy of the DPR and LPR authorities is significantly higher than the so-called “all-Ukrainian” “authorities”: the DPR and LPR authorities are elected by the overwhelming majority of their citizens, and Poroshenko and Zrad are only 1/3!
  2. Siberian
    Siberian 5 November 2014 06: 23
    +7
    it is necessary to unite with the DPR and LPR to declare their sanctions (social): what to look for, what to buy, especially who (whose production) to not buy and what else will come to mind. It is time to become participants in one process.
    Yes, by the way: the New Year is coming soon, there is Santa Claus, there is none, and the children of New Russia should be with presents. Parashensky sweets are not put there. It's time to organize.
  3. Stanislav 1978
    Stanislav 1978 5 November 2014 06: 31
    +1
    whom the fate of their own state, apparently, has long been no longer interested in
    The authorities in Kiev are interested in the rapid accumulation of funds in accounts in foreign banks. And preparations for moving to foreign countries in the near future. And the longer this bacchanalia lasts, the more they earn.
  4. UralMan
    UralMan 5 November 2014 06: 40
    +1
    Everything in this world is not forever.
    Large disintegrate, small unite.
    This is a pattern. Perhaps someday there will be no borders not state, especially political.
  5. Semenov
    Semenov 5 November 2014 06: 41
    +2
    LC and DNI must unite and go to the level of New Russia. And there they recognize.
    1. Donch4ak
      Donch4ak 5 November 2014 07: 20
      +2
      Conversations about unification have been procrastinating for three months already ... Unification, most likely, will not exist, and if it does, it will only be under the leadership of the "big brother" ...
  6. nstarinsky
    nstarinsky 5 November 2014 06: 51
    +3
    The disintegration of Ukraine would be welcomed by many. The idiocy of the "chosen ones" of the local government from the junta seems to help that. But no matter how positive it is, it seems to me that the vitality of the Bandera disease cannot be written off. It survived after the war, stagnation, perestroika and the collapse of the USSR. And not only survived, but also gave wild dill shoots. So a pessimistic scenario is also possible. This is a temporary freeze of the conflict. Constant subsequent attacks and provocations. Right up to the very invitation to NATO for bacon.
    I would like to be in the bad prophets ...
    1. Alekc1000
      Alekc1000 5 November 2014 12: 20
      0
      there is no reason for an invasion of NATO !!! I don’t remember, there was analytics here or on another site, Putin made a move with his horse !!!! Countries with unresolved territorial issues are not accepted into NATO (Russia-Crimea-Ukraine, Georgia-Abkhazia-Ossetia) !!!!!
  7. shishakova
    shishakova 5 November 2014 06: 55
    0
    There is no doubt that the Kiev authorities will be responsible for their crimes.
    They probably understand this and deliberately create confusion in the hope of escaping somewhere ...
  8. saag
    saag 5 November 2014 07: 08
    0
    Prior to the APEC summit in Brisbane, where Putin is going to meet behind the scenes with Obama no gestures, let alone capture Slavyansk will not
  9. sgr291158
    sgr291158 5 November 2014 07: 14
    +1
    In general, slowly but surely Ukraine is decaying
  10. Zomanus
    Zomanus 5 November 2014 07: 22
    +2
    The war to the last Ukrainian is what awaits the Square. As they are now making a division between themselves and the Russians, so later they will divide between themselves and the Ukrainians. There will be Rusyns, Galitans, and other nationalities. The main thing is that they are not thrown into the war and forced to pay their debts. And their "shepherds" do not care how many Svidomo will fall into the ground. The main thing for them is to throw more poop for us.
  11. Stinger
    Stinger 5 November 2014 09: 09
    +3
    The hysteria over the elections to the LPR and DPR is caused by the fact that now there are real negotiators and it will be much more difficult to nod at Russia. Whoever fights negotiates. The focus is fighting alone, but negotiating with others will not work. And the peace plan - Poroshenko's ultimatum: "Hands up and we will filter it" has finally failed. Now Kiev will have to take care of the pince-nez.
  12. Igor_kh
    Igor_kh 5 November 2014 10: 34
    +4
    What is the collapse of Ukraine? why all of a sudden? the society is consolidated against Russian aggression and Donbass terrorists, the brainwashing machine works to its fullest (if in one video the militia admitted - after watching the UkrTV it feels like a bastard, what speak for the average man?), pensions and salaries are paid to state employees.
    1. Mama_Cholli
      Mama_Cholli 5 November 2014 10: 44
      0
      It’s immediately clear which side you came from.
    2. Oldwiser
      Oldwiser 5 November 2014 11: 40
      0
      And when everything is over and everything turns off (including zombie TV) - then how are you going to support the "consolidation of society"? And when will utility bills and prices for basic necessities be three times more than pensions and salaries of state employees?
      1. Igor_kh
        Igor_kh 5 November 2014 11: 49
        +2
        prices keep. For example, on the market, butter / cheese of Ukrainian production did not significantly rise in price, there was cheese "Pyriatyn" before the Maidan for 70 UAH, now - 78 UAH, that is. if the dollar jumped at 8,50 to 14-15, then this did not affect the products.
        And why does the TV turn off? There is no fan shutdown of electric energy, gas is uninterrupted. A communal apartment is YES, but you yourself know who will be to blame.
        1. demoniac1666
          demoniac1666 5 November 2014 12: 11
          0
          Quote: Igor_kh
          prices keep. For example, on the market, butter / cheese of Ukrainian production did not significantly rise in price, there was cheese "Pyriatyn" before the Maidan for 70 UAH, now - 78 UAH, that is. if the dollar jumped at 8,50 to 14-15, then this did not affect the products.
          And why does the TV turn off? There is no fan shutdown of electric energy, gas is uninterrupted. A communal apartment is YES, but you yourself know who will be to blame.

          The whole question is how much time it is possible to maintain the price level, because in the end loans must be repaid with something !!! I.M.Kh.O. hi
          1. Igor_kh
            Igor_kh 5 November 2014 12: 20
            0
            they have been talking about the default of Ukraine for 5 years already, the Mukhinskaya newspaper "Duel" predicted the collapse of the dollar 10 years ago, Privat-Bank Kolomoisky was buried at least twice this year ..... wait and see
  13. Igor_kh
    Igor_kh 5 November 2014 10: 50
    +2
    It’s immediately clear which side you came from.


    with thinking I))
  14. Agent 008
    Agent 008 5 November 2014 10: 53
    +2
    New Russia should annex Russia, and then the remaining bit of Ukraine ... Then there will be order!
  15. Magadan
    Magadan 5 November 2014 11: 54
    +1
    I'm afraid that the junta will trample all-in. They cannot take Novorossiya by starvation. And most likely this "attrition" threatens them. No coal. It is necessary to pay for gas now big money. Export to Russia is bent, and to the west they have nothing to sell except for prostitutes.
    In general, they have a situation - pan or disappear. And the further time is dragging on, the more Novorossiya becomes stronger. I think, in general, the denouement is coming soon. As someone aptly on V.O. said "dill is an annual plant."
  16. Kilo-11
    Kilo-11 5 November 2014 12: 22
    +2
    The collapse of Ukraine as a state will not happen, as our patriots would not like it. The collapse of any state, and even less so small as Ukraine, is always a geopolitical shock. Do we need to ask this question, and even in the immediate vicinity of our borders? Yes, and not everything is bad in Ukraine, as it seems to us from here — society has rallied on the basis of a national idea and the struggle against an external enemy, no hunger is foreseen, salaries and benefits are paid, the army and security forces are on the rise, the regime is actively supported by the United States and the EU. the beginning To move towards a successful state. Of course, the exit of the DPR and LPR from Ukraine is already a fact, but the fact that any other regions of Ukraine will follow the Republics is a moot point. I repeat, the enemy needs to be assessed realistically, and not on the basis of the ideas of cheers of patriotism.
  17. nomad74
    nomad74 5 November 2014 22: 25
    0
    Quote: Kilo-11
    The collapse of Ukraine as a state will not be, no matter how much our patriots would like.

    Well, you overestimated the power of puppets! Now the whole gop company is thinking that Novorossia would not go on a counterattack. And if it goes then Mariupol, Slavyansk, and then Kharkov will not be so with urkaine either.
  18. Mih
    Mih 5 November 2014 23: 11
    0
    Another thing that causes little doubt is that Western sanctions against the Russian Federation for any of the above options for the development of the situation will not be lifted for a long time, and perhaps will be toughened. Perhaps this is the real purpose of the Kiev puppets.

    The end justifies the means, but there are no special means and this must be recognized. The USA cannot fight with everyone; Europe is bursting at the seams. Ukrainians with lard, but maybe lard to the heroes, and so all hu from hu (Gorbi). Without gas, they will get along with willow wood. Factories that produced weapons make "potbelly stoves". Specifically, if real sanctions were taken, then there would be a result, and so on - masturbation. love