The Prophecy of Peter Durnovo
An analytical note by Peter Nikolaevich Durnovo (1842 – 1915) - Minister of the Interior in revolutionary 1905 – 1906 years, and then the long-term leader of the right group of the State Council (1906 – 1915), compiled by him on the eve of the First World War, has long attracted the attention of historians and publicists . This note is often referred to as “prophetic,” and its author, “a man of remarkable intelligence,” “brilliant abilities, tremendous strength, inimitable working capacity, and almost miraculous insight,” some researchers proclaim as an oracle and even “Russian Nostradamus.” And this is not surprising, since much of what the ruling sphere of Durnovo warned 1914 in winter about three years later turned out to be a reality.“The vital interests of Russia and Germany do not collide anywhere”
“... If a warning voice was broadcast then, it was from the right circles, from whose ranks the note drawn up at the beginning of 1914 came out of one of the firm and, of course, especially etched rightists - P.N. Durnovo, who predicted what consequences the impending war would have for Russia, ”noted the prominent church historian, a person of conservative views N. D. Talberg.
The content of this rather voluminous document is well reflected in the headings of the “Notes” sections given to it already when published in Soviet Russia: 1. The future Anglo-German war will turn into an armed clash between the two groups of powers; 2. It is difficult to catch any real benefits gained by Russia as a result of rapprochement with England; 3. The main groups in the coming war; 4. The main burden of the war will fall to Russia; 5. The vital interests of Germany and Russia do not collide anywhere; 6. In the field of economic interests, the Russian benefits and needs do not contradict the German ones; 7. Even a victory over Germany offers Russia extremely unfavorable prospects; 8. The struggle between Russia and Germany is profoundly undesirable for both sides as it boils down to a weakening of the monarchical principle; 9. Russia will be plunged into a hopeless anarchy, the outcome of which is difficult to foresee; 10. Germany, in case of defeat, will have to go through no less social upheavals than Russia; 11. Peaceful cohabitation of cultural nations is most threatened by the desire of England to keep elusive supremacy over the seas.
The author of the "Notes", very clearly denoting the balance of power, warned that at the beginning of a military conflict, which will inevitably erupt because of the rivalry between England and Germany and outgrow in the world in the case of Russia being involved in it on the side of Britain, act as a sticking plaster. Foreseeing a number of complications resulting from the war, Durnovo stated: “Are we ready for such a stubborn fight, which, no doubt, will be the future war of European nations? This question has to be answered without negative objection. ”
At the same time, Durnovo pointed out that the alliance between England and Russia does not offer absolutely no benefits to the latter, but it promises clear foreign policy problems.
Analyzing further the claims of the Russian empire and the possibility of achieving them, the right-wing politician came to the conclusion that "the vital interests of Russia and Germany nowhere collide and provide a complete basis for the peaceful coexistence of the two states." Therefore, Durnovo believed, neither the difficult-to-reach victory over Germany, much less defeat from it, promised Russia absolutely no benefits - neither in the internal political situation (weakening of the monarchical beginning, growth of liberal and revolutionary sentiments), nor in the economy (disintegration of the national economy and large debts on loans) or in foreign policy (the natural desire of the Allies on the Entente to weaken Russia, when there is no longer any need for it). The conclusion from the “Note” followed this: “We are not on the path with England, it must be given its fate, and we don’t have to quarrel over it with Germany. The threefold agreement is an artificial combination, which has no basis for interests, and the future does not belong to it, but to an incomparably more vital close rapprochement between Russia and Germany, reconciled with the last of France and associated with Russia by a strictly defensive union Japan. ”
At the same time, Durnovo also pointed out the weakness of Russian liberalism, which, in the event of a deep crisis caused by the impending war, will not be able to restrain revolutionary action. If the will of the autocratic government is enough to nip opposition speeches firmly enough, then, the conservative analyst believed, "if the opposition does not have serious roots in the population, this will be the end." But if the government makes concessions and tries to enter into an agreement with the opposition (which eventually happened), it will only weaken itself by the time the socialist elements appear. “Although it sounds paradoxical,” he wrote, “but an agreement with the opposition in Russia certainly weakens the government. The fact is that our opposition does not want to reckon with the fact that it does not represent any real power. The Russian opposition is completely intelligent, and this is its weakness, since there is a deep abyss of mutual misunderstanding and mistrust between the intelligentsia and the people. ”
Predicting further revolutionary actions inevitable in the event of a war with Germany, Durnovo warned: “It will start with the fact that all the failures will be attributed to the government. In legislative institutions, a fierce campaign will be launched against him, as a result of which revolutionary actions will begin in the country. These latter were immediately put forward by socialist slogans, the only ones that can raise and group the broad strata of the population, first black division, and then we are the general section of all values and assets. The defeated army, which, moreover, lost its most reliable cadre of personnel during the war, covered in the most part by the spontaneously common peasant desire for land, would be too demoralized to serve as a bulwark of law and order. Legislative institutions and opposition-intelligent parties deprived of real authority in the eyes of the people will not be able to contain dispersed popular waves, they also raised, and Russia will be plunged into hopeless anarchy, the outcome of which cannot even be foreseen. ”
"The effect of a bombshell"
However, in the 1914 year, P. N. Durnovo was not paid due attention to the “Note”. Transferred to the emperor and some influential dignitaries, she remained completely unknown to wide circles of Russian society until the 1920s.
For the first time, the “Note” was published in German under the heading “Prewar Memorandum of Durnovo to the Tsar” in the German weekly “Reichswart”, which was published by the prominent German publicist of the conservative direction Count E. Reventlov since 1920, after which other foreign publications printed it. As noted in the introduction to the German edition of Zapiski, this document was preserved in several copies, one of which was in the papers of a certain Russian minister, who translated it into German after the revolution. Having produced the effect of a bombshell, the sensational document was soon published in Russian in the Russian-German monarchist journal Aufbau.
In Soviet Russia, fragments of this remarkable document were first cited by the famous historian E.V. Tarle in 1922, and then, due to the great interest in the "Note", its text was fully reproduced in the magazine "Red Nov". As Tarle argued, “this note was not even communicated to all ministers; only after the revolution did it become known to several individuals who accidentally got into the hands of a lithographed copy of it. ” However, how did the “Note” end up in the hands of E.V. Tarle, and what constituted this specimen, remains unknown.
Apocrypha, fake or original?
The surprising prognostic accuracy of the “Note” and the fact that it became widely known only in the post-revolutionary period, when much of what Durnovo had predicted had already happened, inevitably caused skepticism and gave rise to doubts about its authenticity. A publicist of left-wing views Mark Aldanov (MA Landau), for example, noticed that “when you read this“ Note, ”it sometimes seems that you are dealing with an apocrypha.” It seemed to Aldanov quite incredible how the tsarist official "could so predictably accurately and confidently predict events of a gigantic historical scale." But in “Ulm's Night” M. Aldanov no longer doubts the authenticity of the “Memorandum”: “Political predictions are good when they are completely specific. Specifically, it was a prediction made a few months before the First World War by the former minister of Durnovo, and I consider this prediction to be the best of all I know, and, frankly, I’ve been brilliant: he predicted not only war (which would be easy) and in detail predicted the entire configuration in it of large and small powers, predicted its course, predicted its outcome. "
However, the fact that the "prophetic note" is not a hoax, there is very specific evidence. Emigrant leader D.G. Browns wrote that this "document was withdrawn from the papers of the Sovereign and was confirmed in emigration by the few who saw it."
This statement is confirmed in a number of sources. According to Countess M.Yu. Bobrinsky (nee Princess Trubetskaya, daughter of Lieutenant-General Suite and commander of His own Imperial Majesty's convoy) in a letter to A.I. Solzhenitsyn, she read this note before the revolution, and therefore can vouch for its authenticity. A typewritten copy of the “Notes” (and in pre-revolutionary spelling) was preserved in the State Archives of the Russian Federation among the papers of Patriarch Tikhon dated 1914 – 1918. and in the archpriest John Vostorgov's fund, which also compiles documents before 1918. It is also known about the typewritten copy of the “Notes”, which were deposited in the Manuscript Division of the Institute of Russian Literature in the fund of the member of the State Council, a prominent lawyer A. Horses The “Notes” variant has also been preserved in the Bakhmetyevsky Archive (USA) in the papers of the former Finance Minister P.L. Barge.
In addition, about the "Note", submitted Mon. Durnovo the emperor in February 1914 of the year, according to the memoirs of the former comrade of the Minister of the Interior, General PG Kurlov, published in Berlin in German in 1920, however, in the Russian-language edition this mention is missing for some unknown reason. The “Note” is mentioned in his memoirs and M.A. Taube, who held the position of Comrade Minister of Public Education in 1914, as well as Baroness M.E. Kleinmichel. According to the director of the department of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, V. B. Lopukhin, although he didn’t hold Durnovo’s Notes in his hands, he was read and re-told to him by a member of the State Council who occupied 1916 – 1917. the post of Minister of Foreign Affairs, N.N. Pokrovsky. “What it was, but with awareness and in mind, to Peter Nikolayevich Durnovo, with all his negative qualities, was impossible to refuse,” wrote V. B. Lopukhin, who adhered to liberal views. - And his note deserved attention. Experienced statesman expressed himself, like no one else who had clarified to himself the internal position of Russia at that time. The author of the note seems to have been able to predict events in the way they actually played out. However, the prophecy later justified by faith at that time was not given. ”
"In their predictions the right were prophets"
Although the "Note" P.N. Durnovo is striking with the realisticness of the forecast made in it, as well as with the clarity and logic of the arguments presented, however, the thoughts expressed in it were characteristic of conservative circles of Russian society.
As one of the memoirists rightly pointed out, the “whole“ chorus ”of the official right called for at that time what the Durnovo wrote in The Note. And it really was.
If we turn to the pre-war views of such Russian conservative publicists and right-wing politicians like Yu.S. Kartsov, G.V. Butmi, P.F. Bulatsel, K.N. Paskhalov, I.A. Rodionov, A.E. Vandam, N.E. Markov et al., It is indeed possible to find in them a lot in common with the “Note” by P.N. Durnovo, because they all also opposed the Anglo-Russian rapprochement, wanted to avoid conflict with Germany and evaluated the potential Russian-German war as "suicidal for the monarchical regimes of both countries." According to foreign policy views, S.Yu. was also close to Durnovo. Witte, who also considered the Russian-French-German alliance a guarantor of the European world, and therefore was an opponent of the Anglo-Russian rapprochement. Before the start of the First World War, Witte expressed his thoughts very similar to those that were reflected in Durnovo's Note. Proving the thesis of disastrous for Russia war with Germany, Witte called the Anglo-Russian alliance "a mistake that tied Russia's hands." ““ War is death for Russia, ”argued the retired prime minister. Mark my words: Russia first finds itself under the wheel stories. She will pay her territory for this war. It will become the arena of a foreign invasion and an internal fratricidal war ... I doubt that the dynasty would survive too! Russia cannot and should not fight ”.” Thus, Durnovo did not write in his “Note” anything that was not said by other opponents of drawing Russia into the war with Germany, another thing is that he did this most clearly, precisely and intelligibly.
It is important to pay attention to the filing date of the “Notes” to the emperor (February 1914), which is far from accidental. The fact is that 30 in January 1914 was followed by the resignation of the Chairman of the Council of Ministers V.N. Kokovtsov, and the conservatives have a chance to achieve a reorientation of the country's foreign policy. The pressure on the sovereign, exerted by Durnovo, was continued by his like-minded people. M.A. Taube reports in his memoirs about the two secret meetings of St. Petersburg "Germanophiles" in March 1914, in which it was recognized that Russia was not ready for a military clash with the Austro-German bloc, and for another three or four years to enter her act of "political suicide." In this regard, at a meeting of the Imperial Russian Historical Society, which took place on March 26 in Tsarskoye Selo under the chairmanship of Nicholas II, the conservatives tried to convince the king of the need to avoid war by drawing closer to Germany. However, Nicholas II, according to the memoirist, confined himself to the remark that, as long as he reigns, peace from Russia will not be broken.
Supporters of orientation to Germany were not limited to propaganda of their views in the ruling circles of Russia. In February, 1914 was one of the most influential Russian conservatives, publisher of the magazine “Citizen” Prince V.P. Meshchersky published an article in the Austrian newspaper Neue Freie Presse, stating that a pan-European war would have disastrous consequences for Russia. The prince saw the only way out in the rapprochement of Russia with Germany and Austria-Hungary, up to the restoration of the Union of three emperors. For this, according to Meshchersky, Russia should have given up on the Balkans, once and for all abandoning Slavophil illusions and pan-Slavic political projects. Consistently advocated the reorientation of Russian foreign policy and the newspaper Zemshchina, which was the mouthpiece of the Union of the Russian People, headed by N.Ye. Markov.
According to this publication, the Entente was an artificial combination created by the Anglo-Saxons in order to push Russia and Germany together in a war and thus simultaneously weaken its two main competitors.
Zemshchina convinced its readers that there were no insurmountable contradictions between Russia and Germany, and the union of these major continental powers of Europe would be beneficial to the peoples of both countries. Such an alliance would not only guarantee Russia the peace it needed in Europe, but also allow Berlin to influence Austria, keeping it from new aggressive actions in the Balkans.
PN is not alone. Durnovo was also in anticipation of the revolution that war would cause. About the same, as well as the fact that the Russian liberal opposition, shaking the pillars of the empire quickly give up the positions of the left radicals, was spoken and written by other rightists. NOT. Markov, back in 1912, warned opposition circles that the people would go either with the right or with the left, but not with the liberals who have nothing in common with the people. In 1914, Mr. Markov predicted that as a result of the war with Germany, "everyone will suffer, all states may fall apart, and in their place will be Attila, whose name the Social Democrats ...". Member of the right group of the State Council, academician A. I. Sobolevsky, in one of his private letters, also noted:
“Our liberals take the Tsar by the throat and say:“ Give power to us ”. But in themselves they are insignificant and no masses stand behind them. ”
Already during the war, in 1915, arguing about the attempts of the opposition to “wrest radical reforms from power, up to the abolition of the Basic Laws”, member of the Duma right-wing faction V.N. In an open letter to the deputies of the State Duma, Snezhkov warned that the result of the storming of power initiated by the liberals could be “internal strife, strikes, barricades and other amenities, and the undoubted result of all this is the acceptance of the most shameful conditions of the world, surrender of Russia to the triumphant enemy, unheard of betrayal in relation to valorous Belgium, France, England and Italy, fruitless sacrifices - blood flows, millions of killed and maimed people, destroyed cities and villages, ravaged population, curses of the whole world ... " . And at the very beginning of 1917, a member of the right group of the State Council, M. Ya. The Govorukho-Devil in the “Note” filed to the emperor drew attention to the fact that the triumph of the liberals would have turned first “with the complete and final defeat of the right-wing parties”, then gradually leaving the political parties of the “intermediate parties” and, like the final, with the complete collapse of the Cadet party , which for a short time will be crucial in the political life of the country.
“... The latter, who are powerless in the struggle against the left and immediately lost all their influence, if they had thought to go against them, would have been ousted and defeated by their friends on the left. And then ... Then a revolutionary crowd, a commune, the death of a dynasty, a massacre of property classes and, finally, a robber peasant would have come out. ”
One of the cadet leaders, V.A. Maklakov was forced to admit in emigration that “in their predictions the right turned out to be prophets”: “They predicted that the liberals in power would only be the forerunners of the revolution, would surrender their positions to it. This was the main argument why they fought so hard against liberalism. And their predictions were confirmed in all trifles: the liberals received his renunciation from the Sovereign’s hands, accepted his appointment to be a new power, and in less than 24 hours passed this power of revolution, persuaded [the Grand Duke] Mikhail [Alexandrovich] to renounce, chose to be revolutionary, and unapproved sovereign government. The rightists were not mistaken in that the revolutionaries in power would not be like the idealists with whom the Russian liberals traditionally portrayed them ... ”
"He discovered a remarkable mind and ability to predict correctly."
Thus, despite the fact that the autograph "Notes" PN. Durnovo as well as its printed copy, which could be confidently attributed as pre-revolutionary (if it existed at all, since it cannot be excluded that the “Note” was distributed by the author in typewritten copies), unfortunately, are not known to modern researchers, The above facts testify in favor of its authenticity and exclude the possibility of this document being fabricated by both German, émigré and Soviet publishers. The authenticity of the Zapiski is also reflected in the obvious similarity of Durnovo’s arguments with the prewar views of many Russian conservatives, as well as their equal assessment of the prospects for Russian liberalism and revolution. The political circumstances of the beginning of 1914, also leave little doubt that the "Note" was filed to the king in February of this year.
However, occasional doubts about the authenticity of the “Notes” are quite understandable. After all, the forecast P.N. Durnovo, which has come true almost to the smallest detail, containing, according to one of the assessments, the prediction of the situation “with photographic accuracy” cannot but amaze. E.V. In his article published in 1922, Tarle called the analyst Durnovo a “logically strong attempt” to destroy the Entente and avoid a war with Germany. Being an ideological opponent of Durnovo, he nevertheless admitted that “intellectually, the mind cannot be denied in any way”, and the “Note” itself and the thoughts expressed in it are full of foresight of “extraordinary strength and accuracy”, "Marked by a seal of great analytical power." At the same time, calling the work of Durnovo “the swan song of the conservative school”, Tarle noticed an important point in it, which often eludes researchers looking at this “Note”. The historian quite rightly pointed out that the “Note” is by no means Germanophilic in nature, because not a single line of it says a word about the need to break Russian-French relations. Rejection from the right-wing politician causes only a rapprochement between Russia and England, condemning Russia to a conflict with the German Reich. At the same time, Durnovo valued the Franco-Russian alliance, which allows achieving the stability of the European equilibrium. “His (Durnovo — aut.) Insight in almost everything that he says about the likely grouping of powers is indisputable; his criticism is strong against the cries against German domination in 1914; convincing indications of the uselessness and futility of Russia for a possible victory, the grave economic consequences of the war with any outcome, ”said Tarle, who found only one important miscalculation in the conservative analyst — Durnovo’s conviction that Germany did not need war.
And it’s hard not to agree.
Durnovo's conviction of the possibility of creating a Russian-German alliance was truly the most vulnerable point of the Zapiski. Despite the confidence of the Russian conservatives that the Russian-German military clash was not necessary for Berlin either, in practice the situation was different.
Theoretically, P.N. Durnovo, as well as some other Russian conservatives, was absolutely right that the war itself against Russia did not need Germany, assessing the real consequences of such a military conflict for the Reich; but in practice it was Germany that sought this war, unleashing it in the summer of 1914. However, at the same time, Durnovo, according to E.V. Tarle, perfectly “understood what an impermissible, disastrous thing is to walk with a match in a powder magazine, when one cannot be sure in his future. The place where he talks about the waves of the movement, which the legislative institutions no longer cope with, vividly recalls the words of Montaigne that people who begin and raise a storm never use its results themselves. She exactly their first and sweep away. In the aphorism of the French skeptic of the sixteenth century and in the prophecy of the Russian reactionary of the twentieth century, the same thought was laid. ” “Durnovo was a Black Hundred and a reactionary,” wrote MP Pavlovich in the preface to the first publication of the full text of the “Note” in Soviet Russia — but, undoubtedly, in assessing the nature of the future war, the role of the Entente in it, on the one hand, Russia, on the other, in anticipation of the outcome of the war, he discovered a remarkable mind and ability to correct prediction. Compared to Durnovo, all the luminaries of our liberal opposition and the Socialist-Revolutionary Party, the Milyukovs, the Maklakovs, the Kerenskys, and others, turn out to be miserable pygmies in their mental attitude, who completely failed to understand the meaning of world war and did not foresee its inevitable outcome. ”
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