Military Review

M. Khazin, "Is there something in the markets?"

16


Yesterday there was a slight panic in the global markets. By the end of the day, it was possible to localize it, but the question itself remained. The fact is that in the conditions of a sharp fall in financial assets, people are usually somewhere, as they say, “shifted”. But today it is extremely difficult to do this - there are practically no liquid and rather interesting from the point of view of receiving profit assets. This means that the collapse can be very strong and will be accompanied by a sharp increase in the dollar exchange rate - which can lead to all sorts of negative consequences for the US economy.

In fact, the troubles are already beginning. Almost all businessmen and politicians believed that as the holiday season comes to an end and the next business cycle begins, the situation in the global economy will improve. Moreover, politicians are constantly pushing this as part of their public speaking. However, the reality of this opinion is refuted - the statistics are disappointing (see http://worldcrisis.ru/crisis/1673881). And if we take into account the real inflation, which is everywhere underestimated, then the figures are quite gloomy. A. let's say. The Labor Statistics Department of the United States Department of Labor is lying to such an extent that it even causes smiles even in the American press.

In general, it looks gloomy enough, but there is no good way out. The fact is that at the end of any sales chain is the final demand, and it falls. This means that there is no objective basis for the growth of assets and is not expected. Theoretically, you can try to improve things in one place of the world economy (sectoral or geographical) at the expense of others, but from the point of view of the dollar it does not make sense - there are no non-dollar economies in the world, the whole planet is one system of division of labor. And therefore - the only possibility is to throw an extra amount of dollars into the system.

That is - to start a new wave of emission. Actually, the experts of the last weeks have already begun to talk about it, which, against the background of more recent conversations about the complete cessation of issuing programs and even tightening monetary policy, already looks extremely pessimistic. But the main thing is different. All emission mechanisms in the USA are arranged in such a way that redistribute emission resources to the financial system, which, of course, takes the lion’s share of the money generated. Since the issue is not the creation of a new profit, but only a redistribution of the existing one, we get a situation in which the real sector, which is on the verge of profitability, will, in a significant part, be thrown over this edge.

At the same time, unlike the first years after the fall of the 2008 year, when the loan multiplier was still high, today it is around 4 (that is, at the minimum for a normal, without a “non-payment crisis” economy), which means that the new issue will inevitably cause inflation . And inflation growth is a drop in real private demand, that is, an additional deterioration in the economic situation. That is - the maintenance of financial markets (stock, first), will inevitably cause a new round of decline in GDP and the economy.

Of course, the statistics will come off. But the fact is that the producers themselves see the balance of incomes and costs perfectly, and when the first ones are reduced, and the second ones grow, then they don’t give a damn about official statistics. So that unemployment will rise, and wages will fall, and many other negative processes will manifest themselves.

In this case, the problem of assets is not going anywhere. It is becoming more and more difficult to get profit, and few people need unprofitable assets. It is for this reason that the dollar is constantly growing relative to other currencies: at least its liquidity is high. But the growth of the national currency against the background of depression did not help anyone, rather, on the contrary.

The fall in world oil prices has also made a negative contribution to the problems of the US economy. The fact is that in the last year in the USA a lot was invested in various near-energy projects, and the price reduction sharply lowered their profitability. Which is also not very good, since the overall profitability of the economy has not yet grown (the costs still need to be covered!), But the possibilities for attracting new investments have weakened ... The only thing that can help the US economy is the rise in oil prices, with provided that this growth will be only outside the US. But, as I wrote in one of the previous articles, this requires a fundamental change in the pricing model in the oil market, which can be done, but not quickly. And, apparently, the US has no time.

Experts believe that the situation will clear up in a few weeks. It may happen that the “hole” will be closed, and the stock “bubble” still has potential for growth. But it may also happen that the collapse begins ahead of time (that is, the end of 2015 of the year), before this potential is completely exhausted. In any case, the situation is not just tense, it is, in a sense, hopeless, since it is completely incomprehensible at the expense of which resource one can get out of the crisis. Yes, some countries can somewhat improve their situation at the expense of others - but almost no one can avoid a rather serious recession. Well, perhaps, with the exception of us, but for this we need to change the state management system and the staff of managers so much that somehow I can't even believe it ...

So it remains to prepare ...
Author:
Originator:
http://worldcrisis.ru/crisis/1674523
16 comments
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  1. SS68SS
    SS68SS 20 October 2014 14: 02
    +3
    ... which can lead to all sorts of negative consequences for the US economy ...


    The US economy is built on a "scam" of stocks and dollars. The more intensively people get rid of greenery in favor of their national currencies, the more uncomfortable these "world dominants" will feel, damn them ... and the less they will poke their noses into other people's affairs ....
    1. DRA-88
      DRA-88 20 October 2014 14: 13
      +9
      “Yes, some countries can somewhat improve their situation at the expense of others - but almost no one can avoid a rather serious recession. Well, perhaps, except for us, but for this we have to change the system of state administration and the staff of managers so much that somehow I can't even believe it ... "

      From the article we can conclude that a way out of the crisis will be common for world imperialism - this is war!
    2. Giant thought
      Giant thought 20 October 2014 14: 14
      +2
      In general, we need to prepare for what will become more difficult, if we are mentally prepared for this, then we will not be afraid of any difficulties, and we will put big and thick on Western sanctions.
    3. The comment was deleted.
    4. The comment was deleted.
    5. APES
      APES 20 October 2014 14: 33
      +3
      So it remains to prepare ...


      short summary:

      "There are times when the Kalashnikov assault rifle, capable of converting any liabilities into assets, becomes the most liquid thing on earth."
    6. siberalt
      siberalt 20 October 2014 15: 03
      +1
      Amend the Constitution and nationalize the Bank of Russia. Or is someone holding something for someone? It will definitely not be worse.
      1. Userpic
        Userpic 20 October 2014 15: 43
        +1
        Quote: siberalt
        Amend the Constitution
        Which ones?

        nationalize the Bank of Russia
        To do this, it will first have to be privatized (but the Kovalchuk bank "Russia" - yes, you can, but who will give you laughing)

        It will definitely not be worse.
        No comment ...
  2. Styx
    Styx 20 October 2014 14: 09
    +3
    or I have a deja vu or the other day I already read this article, in this very content, not very rosy recourse
  3. Mikhail m
    Mikhail m 20 October 2014 14: 09
    +3
    Somewhere I already read it ...
    1. GELEZNII_KAPUT
      GELEZNII_KAPUT 20 October 2014 14: 13
      +2
      in the Look yesterday was, or here in the Picture of the day ...
  4. Password
    Password 20 October 2014 14: 13
    +1
    which can lead to all sorts of negative consequences for the US economy.

    But what to worry about the US economy and prophesy something there, one must closely deal with it, as, for example, China does.
  5. Fin
    Fin 20 October 2014 14: 15
    +3
    should change the state management system and the cadre of managers to such an extent that somehow I can’t even believe it ...

    It’s long overdue, even without taking into account the horror stories of Khazin. The lawyer lives in the looking glass.
  6. Corsair0304
    Corsair0304 20 October 2014 14: 18
    +1
    And when the collapse of the dollar in the US was not the same thing happening? When, due to the mattresses, half the world went bankrupt.
  7. Prager
    Prager 20 October 2014 14: 20
    -2
    my heart feels that by the new year a mattress green paper will cost at least 100 rubles. am
    1. pavel_SPB
      pavel_SPB 20 October 2014 16: 20
      0
      very unlikely ...
      1. Hon
        Hon 21 October 2014 16: 05
        -1
        perhaps even below 40 roll back. but that’s what bothers me, due to falling oil prices, gasoline in the USA has fallen in price by 20% since the beginning of the year, in the UK by 10, yesterday the guys whispered who live there. thanks to the tax maneuver, it’s only growing. By the way, it turns out that gas in the USA is cheaper than ours
  8. navara399
    navara399 20 October 2014 14: 33
    +3
    Stupid of course, but it sounds so beautiful:
    It is necessary to ban dollars in Russia ...
    1. calocha
      calocha 20 October 2014 14: 40
      0
      And also Euro and Yen! ..... we do not need waste paper!
      1. Hon
        Hon 21 October 2014 16: 07
        0
        and how much rvbley now give for the euro?
    2. Userpic
      Userpic 20 October 2014 15: 45
      0
      Quote: navara399
      It is necessary to ban dollars in Russia ...
      You are behind the times - long banned.
      1. Oldwiser
        Oldwiser 20 October 2014 16: 12
        0
        In cash turnover. But in the banking sector - please.
        1. Userpic
          Userpic 20 October 2014 16: 50
          0
          That’s also the banking sector - otherwise how to make international payments? The Russian Federation is ready to trade for rubles, no one wants to trade with the Russian Federation for rubles.
  9. Sultan
    Sultan 20 October 2014 14: 48
    +1
    It’s easier for pi.ndos to print new candy wrappers, or start a large-scale operation in Iraq, although one of the other follows ... Blame the Boeing on Russia, drag it into the war too ... The situation in which you have to cover debts while taking new ones has exhausted its limits , so a new war will just be a possible panacea, but in reality will aggravate the situation of Pindo.stan..It would be more likely that he (pin.dostan) would not have died, as Juna said in a recent interview ...
  10. Dormidosha
    Dormidosha 20 October 2014 14: 52
    +1
    An encouraging article! It remains the case for small - DIMON prostitute from the Kremlin to evict, but stsuka will rest .....!
  11. bubla5
    bubla5 20 October 2014 15: 00
    0
    Than to protect the ruble in the market it would be better to spend the money wisely
  12. The Art of War
    The Art of War 20 October 2014 15: 00
    0
    Cognitive tv
  13. Prutkov
    Prutkov 20 October 2014 15: 03
    +3
    Interesting information ran through several articles. The fall in oil prices has already made unprofitable oil production in Canada and in a number of shale deposits, and also makes the entire shale business in the United States and the liquefied gas project in Australia unprofitable. Those. in those countries that just declared the sanctions war on Russia. And the money invested was large in these projects. Perhaps it makes sense for Russia to keep the price of oil on the market at the level of minimal profitability of shale projects.
    1. Oldwiser
      Oldwiser 20 October 2014 16: 14
      0
      Such dumping may turn out to be an overload for the Russian economy and budget.
    2. bubla5
      bubla5 20 October 2014 16: 17
      0
      There, if prices fall, then taxes fall, that's just what they are protected.
  14. opus
    opus 20 October 2014 16: 55
    +1
    In the meantime ...
    Moody's downgraded Russia's rating to Baa2keeping a negative outlook.

    Moody's: The main institutional owners of the company are Berkshire Hathaway and Davis Selected Advisers. Head office is in New York.е

    In Russia and the CIS, Moody's is represented by the Russian branch of Moody's Investors Service Ltd: The majority shareholder of RAMI is the Moody's agency, the minority shareholder is Interfax Information Services Group.
    and how much do they get paid for such an analysis?
    millions?
  15. 31rus
    31rus 20 October 2014 17: 41
    0
    Always ready! ;-) And how many times was the end of the world?
  16. Evgen2x
    Evgen2x 20 October 2014 17: 48
    0
    The best way out is to introduce an energy chervonets (provided by the energy carrier) and tryndets to the dollar and their ilk (striped), and a powerful recovery of the world economy is provided, though without OSA))
  17. lance
    lance 20 October 2014 18: 28
    0
    at present, it is possible to collapse the dollar with the euro only from the opposite - the Russian Federation should lower energy prices preferably for a year. we will survive but the rest in a year
  18. bubla5
    bubla5 20 October 2014 19: 21
    0
    that the collapse can be very strong and will be accompanied by a sharp increase in the dollar - which can lead to various kinds of negative consequences for the US economy.
    Yes, there will be nothing, just turn on the money machine and adjust the growth
  19. Bylynich
    Bylynich 21 October 2014 21: 07
    0
    And the cat Vaska listens, but eats.
    Withdraw assets stub. Fund is necessary to the end. And invest in your economy, and not cry from a lack of investors. And continue to buy gold for stock.