Military Review

Timid steps to a peace treaty

38
Although Vladimir Putin’s autumn visit to Tokyo was canceled under US pressure, the President of the Russian Federation and the Japanese Prime Minister agreed to meet at the November APEC summit in Beijing. If everything goes well, then the canceled autumn visit will be postponed for spring or any other convenient time. Obviously, both countries are firmly headed for the conclusion of a peace treaty.
Over the past couple of years, Vladimir Putin and Shinzo Abe have developed quite trusting personal relationships. They exchanged gifts several times, the Prime Minister of Japan was one of the world leaders who attended the opening of the Olympics in Sochi (which most EU leaders had ignored). A clear difference from the previous prime ministers of the Land of the Rising Sun, who tried to talk to Moscow exclusively in the language of claims and ultimatums - with a known result. One could speak of an unprecedented breakthrough in relations, but then Ukrainian events intervened ...

Timid steps to a peace treaty


For the past six months, the United States has put enormous pressure on Japan to ensure that Tokyo imposed sanctions against the Russian Federation similar to EU sectoral sanctions. Washington has plenty of leverage: starting from the bases in Okinawa, ending with the economy - and after a short resistance, Abe surrendered, agreeing obviously to a disadvantageous position. However, if you look closely at the “sanctions” imposed by Japan, it will become clear that this is pure profanation “for show” that will not harm Moscow or Tokyo.
In the Land of the Rising Sun, it is well remembered that the overseas "ally" more than once seriously substituted them in economic terms. Take at least the recent US anti-dumping duties on Japanese steel. Or another case where after a well-known 2011 earthquake of the year, Japan urgently needed tens of billions of dollars and she tried to exchange the United States treasury bonds purchased earlier, US Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner refused to do so. The bonds of the United States, which the Land of the Rising Sun has accumulated by as much as 900 $ billion, have turned into useless rubbish. Cruel but fair lesson.
Responding adequately to Big Brother in Japan has not yet been resolved, but it is quite capable of giving him a headache in other directions. The United States can still seriously influence Japan, but even they are not omnipotent, and Tokyo is not completely in control: it’s not for nothing that the Japanese have been striving to reduce the number of American bases in their country over the past decades.
For a combination of these and many other reasons, the cabinet ministers decided that the time had come to bring order to relations with the northern neighbor, who, by coincidence, is also looking for new allies. The essence of the mutual interest of the two countries can be decomposed into the following points:

1. Southern Kuriles.

Tokyo understands that it’s not possible to count on the return of all four islands. At the same time, in Moscow, there is the realization that it is impossible to talk with Japan in the language of victorious 1945 or even 1956 of the year (when the Soviet-Japanese declaration was adopted) is impossible - the weight categories have changed. It is still unknown how the Kuril issue will be resolved, but it will obviously be settled by a search for a compromise that would suit both parties.



2. Technology and gas.

Russia's interest in good relations with its island neighbor is obvious. It is critically important for our country to overcome the technological gap with the developed countries, which in some parameters is about thirty years. This gap in the Stalinist style is to be overcome in a decade.
Only internal reserves of high-quality jerk is not achieved. It was almost impossible even in the 1930 for the USSR, which actively used the services of specialists from Germany and the USA.
Japan will not sell its latest technology to a potential competitor. But in exchange for something very serious, she will share them. Russian science and industry in this case can save tens of years and billions of dollars by jumping over several technological steps at once. Such an opportunity is worth a lot.
The gas issue stands out. Tokyo has no gas of its own. Methane hydrate is still a beautiful fairy tale, and in the meantime the economy of the island nation is supplied by delivering liquefied gas to special gas carriers. But it is a very expensive gas.
The idea of ​​laying a gas pipeline from Sakhalin to the central regions of Japan has been around for a long time, but they began to seriously think about its implementation only after the conclusion of the Russian-Chinese agreement on the construction of the Power of Siberia gas pipeline. If the project is implemented, then we can talk about an unprecedented breakthrough for both countries.
Russia receives additional foreign exchange earnings and reduced dependence on China. In addition, she now binds politically and Tokyo, pushing the Americans. The volumes transferred through the proposed gas pipeline to Japan, even offhand, are quite comparable with the volumes of the Power of Siberia, which is being laid in China.
Japan gets cheaper gas and wins in the military-strategic plan. Indeed, in the event of a major maritime conflict with the PRC, the Chinese fleet can easily destroy Japanese gas carriers, but it is unlikely to attack the underwater gas pipeline belonging to friendly Russia as well.

China and equilibrium in Asia

In the context of the actual break with the EU due to Ukraine, Moscow was forced to turn its face to China. This is logical and correct. However, there is a danger of becoming addicted to Beijing. Excessive strengthening of the Middle Kingdom in the plans of Russia is hardly included. Only Japan is a comparable economic (and military) force in the region. Therefore, maintaining a relative, but balance in Asia is fully in the interests of the Russian Federation. The balance of power is the guarantee of a lasting peace.

The collapse of the dollar.

Desperate US attempts to unleash conflicts around the world suggest that the collapse of the dollar is not far off. In conditions of total collapse of everything and everyone, only those who are most self-sufficient in terms of resources will be able to survive. Including Russia, which has a full range of minerals in the right quantities, and potentially powerful agriculture. Real values, real goods, instead of US treasury obligations that cannot be exchanged even for the same dollars.
In Moscow and Tokyo, there is a widespread understanding that the days of American domination on the world Olympus are numbered. And in the chaos looming after the collapse of the dollar, it is critically important to have a reliable and stable neighbor with whom you can trade profitably for necessary goods, not empty pieces of paper.

Ukraine, Senkaku Islands and sanctions.



Russia, having received Ukraine’s claims on the newly-joined Crimea, is seeking to cut the knot even in the East, for having at once two serious territorial disputes in different parts of the world is too much even for a great nuclear power. The solution of the Kuril problem, whatever it may be, and the signing of a peace treaty will instantly change the balance of power in the Ukrainian direction in favor of Moscow. Japan is guided by similar reasons. She needs to transfer a maximum of forces to the south to reflect China’s claims on the Senkaku Islands. This is only possible by making peace in the north. Therefore, a mutually acceptable solution will be found one way or another.

Summary.

What, ultimately, the leaders of the two countries will agree on, we will only learn by the fact that when the time comes to put decisive signatures on the documents. But the direction is clearly visible now and if the plan is implemented, Russia will be able to cut through another window to Asia.
Europe can only be advised to bite your elbows, and bitterly regret your behavior and missed opportunities. In the new geopolitical reality, the Old World remains out of work.
Author:
38 comments
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  1. Same lech
    Same lech 15 October 2014 09: 48
    +7
    Japan is guided by similar reasons. She needs to shift her strength to the south to reflect China’s claims to the Senkaku Islands. This is only possible by making peace in the north. Therefore, a mutually acceptable solution will be found one way or another.


    Yeah .... if only it weren’t on Medvedev’s prescription ... BUT WE WILL REMAIN AT A BROKEN Trough.
    1. kodxnumx
      kodxnumx 15 October 2014 11: 27
      +2
      Only then can a person be called the leader of the country when he conducts an independent policy and clearly knows what his country needs! So let's see who rules in Japan.
    2. Lelek
      Lelek 15 October 2014 12: 09
      +1
      Quote: The same LYOKHA
      Therefore, a mutually acceptable solution will be found one way or another.


      IMHO. It is necessary to pay less attention to samurai twists. Only progamics are beneficial for Russia, and let their ambitions be demonstrated between Tokyo and Kyoto.
  2. rugor
    rugor 15 October 2014 10: 06
    +10
    The article is beautiful and naive. Mattresses will never allow full-fledged interaction between Russia and Japan.
    1. The comment was deleted.
    2. askort154
      askort154 15 October 2014 10: 25
      +3
      rugor ........ The article is beautiful and naive. Mattresses will never allow full interaction between Russia and Japan

      I also think so. One of the US points in creating a mess in Ukraine, there is a desire
      interrupt the EU's rapprochement with Russia. Japan understands this very well and does not "stick out"
      in a hurry, waiting for the tigers to gnaw.
    3. andrejwz
      andrejwz 15 October 2014 10: 44
      +6
      Quote: rugor
      The article is beautiful and naive. Mattresses will never allow full-fledged interaction between Russia and Japan.

      The article is not "beautiful and naive", but professional, when under the right messages - the desirability and even the need to have a peace treaty, and mutually beneficial (!) cooperation, the reader becomes aware of the idea that the integrity of the territories is not a dogma, that the opponent has a miracle of technology without which we don’t have to. Article after article and the reader no longer rejects the idea that any concessions are advisable. Market, you see.
      1. Kibalchish
        15 October 2014 11: 19
        0
        We are not talking about transferring the islands, in the article anyway. It only repeats the well-known thesis of Russian and Japanese diplomats on the search for a mutually beneficial compromise.
        What will this compromise neither you nor I know. What we agree on the sidelines we also don’t know. And we will not be able to influence this either.
        It is too early to say that "the islands will be given back" or "not an inch of Russian land." Almost everything depends on Putin's decision.
        In general, the main thing now is not the islands, but gas.
        1. Max otto
          Max otto 15 October 2014 12: 15
          +4
          The admission of Japanese fishermen to the Sea of ​​Okhotsk is an excellent compromise. The transfer of at least one island of Japan is a defeat. I think so.
        2. lidiy
          lidiy 16 October 2014 02: 31
          +3
          "In general, the main thing now is not the islands, but the gas."
          And when will the islands be the main ones? When will we lose them?
          "All the" controversial "islands would be located on the third part of the Moscow region - with their volcanoes like" Tyati "and rocky soil. And they are needed not so much by Japan (there are enough international licenses for fishing), as by the United States. control the passage of submarines into the Arctic Ocean and block sea routes from the Far East to the Pacific coast of America.
          In the 45th year, when signing the peace treaty in San Francisco, the samurai signed the provision taken from the Yalta and Potsdam agreements with their signatures: “Japan renounces all rights, legal bases and claims to the Kuril Islands and to that part of Sakhalin Island and adjacent to it the islands over which Japan acquired sovereignty under the Portsmouth Treaty of September 5, 1905. ” (After the defeat of the tsarist empire in the Russo-Japanese war). Secured and calmed down. Until Stalin's death, the Americans were quiet.
          And then they began to arouse the Japanese by sending them official State Department papers: “seek the return of your northern territories from the USSR. Make this an indispensable condition for concluding a bilateral peace treaty with the Council-
          Sky Union. ” (The document signed in San Francisco did not have an autograph of a representative of our country). In 56, U.S. Secretary of State Dulles delivered an ultimatum to the samurai: if they accept the loss of the Iturup and Kunashir islands, which are strategically important, the Yankees will forever retain Okinawa and the entire Ryukyu archipelago. The small islands of Shikotan and Habomai, which did not pose a danger to the US Navy, were of much less interest to Americans.
          But it was just these islands, “uninteresting” for America, that Nikita Khrushchev agreed to give back to neighbors in the same 56th year in exchange for concluding a peace treaty, plus the return of Okinawa to Japan and the withdrawal of all foreign troops from the territory
          ries of the state. The United States, of course, was categorically against such a deal.
          They undertook a new diplomatic assault on the Kuril ridge under Gorbachev. US President Ronald Reagan himself and his faithful assistant to the USSR, Foreign Minister Eduard Shevardnadze, pressured Mikhail Sergeyevich, who bargained to sell all the islands for 26-28 billion dollars. But the land was already swaying near Gorbachev: you can surrender the country's interests with impunity in secret mode (while someone sniffs out there!), And then you would have to immediately explain to the disgruntled people
          house. And he did not put his head in the noose. "(Poltoranin," Power in TNT Equivalent ").
          1. fktrcfylhn61
            fktrcfylhn61 16 October 2014 07: 51
            0
            Of course, the author of the article on the soap !!!
  3. Stalnov I.P.
    Stalnov I.P. 15 October 2014 10: 10
    +3
    Our entire domestic policy over the past 20 years has been mediocre and failed, if we also give the islands to Japan, this will cause a crisis within the country with dire consequences, especially since a rare element is mined on the outermost island, which is not found anywhere else in the world. It is easy to scatter, difficult to assemble, first of all, you need to put things in order in your country, and not hide behind the slogan "we are not 37 years old", but we are not 37 years old, but much worse, the economy has failed, corruption is off the charts, personnel policy is simply disorderly and to be honest, to some extent it is criminal, the example of stools and others, everything is blabbed.
    1. fzr1000
      fzr1000 15 October 2014 10: 30
      +1
      Shoigu every day, online, on a monitor, looks at the current status of the most significant defense industry projects. So not everything is lost.
      This is your balm for wounds.
  4. Vladimir K.
    Vladimir K. 15 October 2014 10: 15
    +3
    While Japan is under the actual protectorate of the United States, no peace treaty can be discussed. And the transfer of islands captured by Japan in the war of 1903-1905 and returned by Russia in 1945 cannot be discussed at all - joint economic activity is possible, but only under the jurisdiction of Russia. Japan is very careless (to put it mildly) regarding Russia's natural resources, catching fish in our seas in barbaric ways.
    1. Accent
      Accent 15 October 2014 12: 23
      +1
      I agree that let Japan first drive the US military bases out of its territory, and then it will be possible to talk about some steps towards rapprochement.
      1. fktrcfylhn61
        fktrcfylhn61 16 October 2014 07: 49
        0
        Absolutely agree! And then the strings from behind the puddles discredit any messages !!!
  5. Hairy Siberian
    Hairy Siberian 15 October 2014 10: 17
    0
    Give the left-hand drive Nissan Gloria!
    1. Tektor
      Tektor 15 October 2014 13: 22
      +4
      What for? When will be soon:
      "JV" GM-AvtoVAZ "has started a new stage of work on the production of the second generation Chevrolet Niva."
      1. Tektor
        Tektor 15 October 2014 13: 25
        0
        And another view:
  6. Vend
    Vend 15 October 2014 10: 35
    +1
    in Tokyo there is a widespread understanding that the days of American dominance on the world Olympus are numbered.

    Something is not visible. If they had understood, they would have taken up the approach of this happy moment for everyone. And so the samurai honor remained only in the anime. laughing
  7. 3vs
    3vs 15 October 2014 10: 36
    +3
    Our Kuril Islands!
    1. Chertkov Oleg
      Chertkov Oleg 17 October 2014 11: 49
      0
      He served in Kunashir. Beautiful places. For resorts and nature tourism is the thing. The owner of ours would be the Kuril pearl in the Russian crown. H. Yapam all over the face, so that the eyes are more realistic about their capabilities.
  8. IAlex
    IAlex 15 October 2014 10: 57
    +1
    Firstly, all narrow-eyed cunning creatures. Secondly, talk with those who live in Japan through the mailbox and other information sources only the opinion of the United States is pushed. Thirdly, Yapov always had only their own interests in life, if they could not be open, then they were hidden ...
    1. Kibalchish
      15 October 2014 11: 24
      +1
      The media in Japan, as well as in Europe, are largely under US control, this is true.
    2. Styx
      Styx 15 October 2014 12: 08
      +1
      right now, the Iponians and the Chinese are not the same thing, very different mentalities. As the Far East say: the iposhka smiles at you gently, bows at the legs, and holds the dagger behind you, as you turn your back, so it sticks into you
      1. IAlex
        IAlex 15 October 2014 12: 25
        +1
        I generally work with Asians, and I can only say about Asians that it’s hard to come to an agreement with them, they smile all the time and try to unobtrusively throw everything at all, but if you agree, it means the contract will be executed ... And for the Eurogays, it's the other way around , smart look, joy in the eyes, signing a contract, and then endless attempts to heat ...
  9. dchegrinec
    dchegrinec 15 October 2014 11: 11
    +1
    Russia itself has fallen into the clutches of Europe and is now reaping its fruits. It was necessary in the nineties to bet on its eastern neighbors, and not to hatch its eyes, as Ukraine is now in the direction of Europe. But better late than never. They gave us the opportunity to see for ourselves that Europe is just a free application, and the market should be with the East.
    1. Lelek
      Lelek 15 October 2014 12: 18
      +2
      Quote: dchegrinec
      .It was still in the nineties to bet on their eastern neighbors


      You need to bet on all countries at once and firmly act according to your master plan (which we do not have, in my opinion, to this day). And the basis of this plan should be progmatism and dry calculation.
  10. pavel_SPB
    pavel_SPB 15 October 2014 11: 11
    +1
    as if the Kuril Islands did not decide the issue is not in our favor ..... not a desire to stay with nothing because of our bureaucrats who are contrary to the opinion of the people.
  11. rotmistr60
    rotmistr60 15 October 2014 11: 25
    0
    However, if you carefully look at the "sanctions" introduced by Japan, it will become clear that this is pure profanity "for show", which will not harm either Moscow or Tokyo.

    Here Japan acted as a wise eastern country. That would be on the issue of the Kuril Islands did not listen to their nationalists.
  12. Nitarius
    Nitarius 15 October 2014 11: 26
    0
    A compromise must be found! But the land is not worth SHARING EVEN WITH JAPANESE! WE HAVE OURSELF WITH BLOOD and NOTHING TO OPEN MOUTH ON OUR LAND!
    ENOUGH THAT ALASKU SOLD- FASHINGTON!
  13. Kibalchish
    15 October 2014 11: 39
    0
    Now the main theme is gas, not islands. China, taking advantage of the fact that Russia has quarreled with Europe, demands that oil and gas be purchased for yuan. Why is this bad, no need to explain? Therefore, the Russian Federation urgently needs a third large market to shake hands with China, if it begins to bury. Japan is a very large market. In fact, there is no alternative to it in this regard.
    I do not know how the issue of islands is related. It’s possible that nothing.
  14. Not served
    Not served 15 October 2014 11: 47
    +1
    The issue of the islands is not a question of land, but a question of maritime borders and biological resources.
    The fact that the Americans of Japan regularly throw and use to the fullest is true. But the Japanese are heavily dependent on their domestic market and even with China it is becoming more and more difficult to compete. It seems to me that they are simply afraid of amers, and even when America starts to limp they will not stick up, but they would hammer with pleasure the last nail in the coffin lid.
    1. Oldwiser
      Oldwiser 15 October 2014 17: 15
      0
      the last nail - he is the sweetest
    2. Prager
      Prager 1 November 2014 15: 41
      0
      totally agree with you! nothing to add. the Japanese are intimidated by the amers just like the Germans. hence the corresponding behavior of political elites.
  15. mimo-crock3
    mimo-crock3 15 October 2014 12: 06
    0
    Quote: pavel_SPB
    as if the Kuril Islands did not decide the issue is not in our favor ..... not a desire to stay with nothing because of our bureaucrats who are contrary to the opinion of the people.

    Two answers at once: 1) The officials wanted to spit on the opinion, 2) The opinion of a random cook is apparently very valuable, in the field not related to mash digestion.
  16. parusnik
    parusnik 15 October 2014 12: 26
    0
    How the Kuril issue will be resolved in the end is still unknown, but it will obviously be settled by a method of finding a compromise that would suit both sides.... And what interesting compromise ..? Ratification of the Soviet-Japanese declaration ... transfer of the two islands of Japan ...? Khrushchev, thought he would give two islands .. and Japan would be neutral, but the figs turned out ... therefore .. the USSR did not ratify this declaration .. The West, deceived Russia more than once ... The Japanese are cunning while the United States is in force .. they will be for amerikosov cling .. Russia needs Japan as a raw materials appendage ... That is, if the American economy collapses ... then the Japanese will come running ... but it will not be soon ..
  17. valentina-makanalina
    valentina-makanalina 15 October 2014 12: 59
    0
    Japan’s claims to Russia are now just a panacea for Japanese politicians and complete nonsense. There will be no review of the results of World War II. But the United States plays this issue with Japan, they just need a confrontation between Russia and Japan in the Far East. In any way and with any state in the world, the United States is looking for points of disagreement with Russian politics. They don’t care who and for what claims to Russia, the main thing is to heat up the situation.
    For Russia, this is an empty concussion, and for Japan, it’s a national idea.
  18. Monster_Fat
    Monster_Fat 15 October 2014 14: 07
    +2
    Papers, no matter how necessary they may seem at the present time, so are all different contracts and other rubbish, they are not worth anything. Absolutely nothing. Time changes everything, contracts are leveled, but the land remains. There is nothing more eternal and more valuable than the earth is an axiom. There is also another axiom - "contracts" are made by the strong, and they are "signed" by the weak. You need to be strong, then "contracts" will not be required.
  19. gunya
    gunya 15 October 2014 18: 19
    0
    I read the article - how a general review will come down. And here about:
    “It is critically important for our country to overcome the technological gap with developed countries, which by some parameters is thirty years old. This gap, in the Stalinist way, will have to be bridged in ten years.
    Only internal reserves can not achieve a qualitative breakthrough. It was almost impossible even in the 1930s for the USSR, which actively used the services of specialists from Germany and the USA
    ."
    I do not quite agree. The only thing that is true: "This gap in Stalinist style will have to be closed in a decade."

    The author forgets that, unlike that time Now there are enough well-trained personnel, both engineers and skilled skilled workers. It is only necessary to create motivation for creative work.

    To abandon the pseudo-market and other liberal postulates in economics and apply the methods of a planned economy, the benefit of economists with the necessary experience and knowledge is enough, they just do not give them progress.
    Recall about domestic developments lying "under the cloth" and the work on which was not brought to mind.
    This is at least.
  20. gunya
    gunya 15 October 2014 18: 30
    +1
    "The idea of ​​laying a gas pipeline from Sakhalin to the central regions of Japan has existed for a long time, but they began to think seriously about its implementation only after the conclusion of the Russian-Chinese agreement on the construction of the Power of Siberia gas pipeline. If the project is implemented, then we can talk about an unprecedented breakthrough for both countries.
    Russia receives additional foreign exchange earnings and reduced dependence on China. In addition, she now binds politically and Tokyo, pushing the Americans. The volumes transferred through the proposed gas pipeline to Japan, even offhand, are quite comparable with the volumes of the Power of Siberia, which is being laid in China.

    The idea is not bad, especially since Japan is interested. But we need to make sure that the main burden of expenses falls on Japan.
    Somewhere lies the project of connecting the mainland railway tunnel with Sakhalin and Sakhalin with Japan. You can offer it, the Japanese must peck.
  21. The comment was deleted.
  22. SveTok
    SveTok 16 October 2014 05: 05
    0
    We must proceed from the fact that the Japanese need us, and not vice versa. For China, Japan, a nail in the ass and spoil relations with fraternal people because of some empty words about supposedly alien technology is ridiculous.
  23. Dinko
    Dinko 16 October 2014 07: 39
    0
    Our leading economists say that it is necessary to move away from gas exports and sell gas processing products, which is much more profitable in terms of money and removes dependence on other countries in terms of transportation. However, we are only thinking about building gas processing plants.
  24. fktrcfylhn61
    fktrcfylhn61 16 October 2014 07: 47
    0
    Tokyo understands that it is not necessary to count on the return of all four islands. At the same time, in Moscow there is a realization that it is impossible to speak with Japan in the language of victorious 1945 or even 1956 (when the Soviet-Japanese declaration was adopted) - weight categories have changed ......

    Another betrayal of history and memory of the dead !!! I wonder what fact made it possible to even think about it, not to say ??? Another trampling of Russian statehood, and their own people, who obtained this victory as well !!!
    1. Kibalchish
      16 October 2014 10: 07
      0
      Explain what does the memory of the dead. It's just about cold geopolitical reality.
  25. andrereu74
    andrereu74 16 October 2014 08: 53
    0
    Usually they say that people are getting smarter over the years, which can not be said about grandma-Europe (((
  26. Prager
    Prager 1 November 2014 15: 38
    0
    I’m afraid that the liberals in power will quietly give the Japanese all the South Kuril Islands peacefully.