Military Review

“The conflict of the future will occur along the North-South, not East-West line”

51
“The conflict of the future will occur along the North-South, not East-West line”


German political scientist Alexander Rahr summed up the development of relations between Russia and the West after the collapse of the USSR

October 7 2014 at the National Research University Higher School of Economics with the assistance of the Civil Society Development Fund hosted a lecture by the German political scientist Alexander Rahr on the topic “Russia's Foreign Policy in Zero Years: The Beginning of a Multipolar World”. "Russian Planet" publishes the main provisions of his speech.

Future historians may argue about the role of zero years for Russia. Some will believe that this was the time when the country returned to its true path, and that the events of the Yeltsin era were historical a misunderstanding. But there are many others who will say that it was in the 1990s that Russia first gained freedom, which was subsequently lost.

The last decade of the 20th century in the mass consciousness appears exclusively in a negative way. This was largely due to the economic disaster that befell the country at that time. But perhaps in a few years a completely new chapter of Russian history will open, which will lead its continuity precisely from the 1990's, and then the current time may well be seen as a path to nowhere. It is now impossible to predict the course of further development of the country.

Russia and the West under Yeltsin

After the collapse of the USSR, Russia embarked on the path of democratization and economic reform in accordance with the Western liberal model. Capitalism, private property, a multiparty system and a free press appeared in the country, its citizens were able to travel abroad and travel the world. The elites of the West hoped that the new Russia would become its strategic partner. The democratic unification of Europe after the Cold War was not seen without the participation of free Russia. The old stereotypes regarding Russia, which were formed for decades and even centuries, began to disappear. The West was grateful to Gorbachev and Yeltsin for the peaceful end of the Cold War. Russia has ceased to be a danger to the United States and Europe, they were ready to accept it as a partner. The end of half a century of confrontation with the USSR in the West was perceived as a historic victory of liberalism and the Euro-Atlantic system of values.

But the main institutions of the new world order for the West were NATO and the European Union, which began to gradually expand eastward. As compensation, Russia was included in the G8 group, the Russia-NATO Council was created, and Moscow participated in peacekeeping operations in the Balkans. Logic prompted that with further developments, the United States could soon leave Europe, dissolve NATO, and hand over European security issues to Europe.

But at the same time, the contradictions in relations between Russia and Europe grew. After 1991, the trend to contain Russia began to take shape in the West, and then prevail, in order to prevent the re-establishment of the “Russian empire”, which was still feared. At the same time, Russia stubbornly believed that the United States and Europe would sooner or later agree that Russia will gradually restore its traditional status of a great power.

Russia in the 1990-s has never been able to articulate its foreign policy interests. Most of the ruling elite sincerely stretched toward the West, seeing in it Russia's partner in modernization. But there remained another, a significant part of society and the elite, which thought exclusively of imperial categories and former ideas about the national interests of the country. In the West, it was felt that Russia is seeking partnership with it just for the sake of prestige.

Russia and the West under Putin

It remains unclear which foreign policy strategy was guided by Vladimir Putin, becoming president in 2000. In the first years of his rule, in many respects, it seemed that he was very sincere in his desire to link Russia's interests with the West and even go for more serious integration into Euro-Atlantic structures. But today, most analysts come to the conclusion that Russia, from the very beginning of Putin’s presidency, tried to recreate itself as an independent and autonomous world power center. To this end, she took the initiative to lay the foundation for a new multi-polar world order, which is now emerging in torment before our eyes.


A convoy of armored personnel carriers and trucks with Russian military personnel leaves Georgian territory 13 September 2008. Photo: Zurab Kurtsikidze / EPA / TASS


Putin and the security forces created by him refused to join Russia to the West, putting the country on a “national-state” path of development. Putin changed the state system by creating a so-called managed democracy. At the same time, Putin prevented the threat of Russia's disintegration as a result of the conflict in Chechnya, after the short war with Georgia in 2008, Abkhazia and South Ossetia were under the control of Moscow, and later the Crimea was annexed. Perhaps soon, with the assistance of Russia, unrecognized states will appear on the territory of eastern Ukraine.

Almost immediately after Putin came to power, Russia had a geopolitical conflict with the United States, which was difficult to imagine in the 1990s. Subsequently, the European Union was involved in this confrontation on the side of the United States. The essence of the conflict was that the United States tried to contain Russia, which, from their point of view, threatened America's influence and global interests. Russia was viewed as a kind of “bully” who creates its globally operating institutions, contrary to the opinion of the West. Indeed, while powerful China, although not concealing its hostility towards a unipolar world, tried to avoid conflict with the West, Russia often provoked them, taking on the role of instigator. The culmination of cooling relations in the zero years was the war with Georgia in 2008. After that, the West stopped responding to any proposals from Moscow, even constructive ones.

The economic crisis of 2008 of the year gave the West and Russia a unique chance to confront it together and restore mutual cooperation and trust. But this did not happen, Western countries did not allow Russian capital into their economies. The European states, fearing falling into dependence on the supply of energy resources from Russia, began to look for alternative sources of import of hydrocarbons. Plans to build new pipelines to Europe were blocked, Gazprom was offered to use the existing infrastructure. As a result, the European Union and Russia were selected separately from the crisis, which still negatively affects their economic performance.

The conflict in Ukraine in 2014 and the subsequent mutual sanctions further alienated Russia and Europe from each other, possibly for many years.

As a result, during the zero years, visas were not canceled (for Russians traveling to the EU and the USA - RP), there was no progress in creating general rules for economic cooperation. By the end of the 2000s, it became obvious that, under the current leadership of Russia, its paths with the West diverged. For Russia, the question of who, if not the West, will be able to become a partner for the modernization of the economy for it has acquired particular urgency. Some hope in the West was pinned on the Medvedev presidency, but Putin’s return in 2012 year led to a new round of tensions in the relationship. And at the same time, the implicit, and then all the more obvious reorientation of Russia to cooperation with China, began to appear.

The only positive moment over the years in Moscow’s relations with the West has become the Russian corridor for the supply of NATO troops in Afghanistan.

Why did not work out

The tragedy of the failure of the partnership between Russia and the European Union at the beginning of the 21st century will hurt in the future their relations. Both sides are guilty of this failure. Russia's mistake is a clear assessment of the 1991 events of the year as a geopolitical catastrophe. The fact that as a result of this, the country freed itself from the hardest legacy of the Soviet era was underestimated and neglected by the Russian elites. At the same time, the West treated Russia as a country that lost the Cold War. On the contrary, everyone won from her graduation.

Russia considered the EU solely as a pragmatic business partner and as a market for energy resources. At the same time, the European Union was determined to establish partnerships with Russia only on the basis of common values ​​- democracy, human rights, rather than pragmatic interests. With this approach, Russia constantly felt like a schoolboy, whom the morally superior West tried to teach the rules of behavior in the future “common European home”. For a proud and self-sufficient Russia, this approach was unacceptable, and for Europe it was unacceptable that Russia, instead of moving towards democracy, became increasingly authoritarian.


Vladimir Putin at a joint press conference following the Russia-European Union meeting in Brussels 28 January 2014. Photo: Sergey Guneev / RIA News


It should be understood that it is not enough for Europe to have only a pragmatic partnership with Russia, following the example of China. He was always considered a different civilization, while Russia was viewed by Europeans as part of a “big Europe” from Lisbon to Vladivostok. The EU believed that Europe would only become truly strong and prosperous when there would be democracy in its Western understanding throughout its territory, including Russia. Thus, the European elites had clearly overestimated expectations with respect to Russia and the speed of its susceptibility to European values.

With bitterness, we must admit that the beginning of the XXI century was a lost time for the creation of a "common European home." Both sides felt that they were not so necessary for each other in order to sacrifice something for the sake of this goal.

As for Germany, from year to year it tried to involve Russia in solving serious issues of European security. Now the position of the German establishment is somewhat twofold: on the one hand, almost the entire elite supports sanctions against Russia, because in the West they fear that what is happening in Ukraine may be continued in other territories bordering Russia, and on the other, in Berlin Russia to be able to continue the dialogue.

It must be borne in mind that now in power in Germany there is a generation that remembers the terrible past of the 20th century and does not want to enter into confrontation with Russia. It also remembers the role of the USSR in the reunification of Germany in 1990 year. But now he is being replaced by a young formation of leaders, which is spared from all this. It is primarily focused on the observance of democratic values, and in this regard, the current policy of Russia towards Ukraine is unacceptable for it.

Unlike Germany, the United States and some other European countries have always insisted that Russia exaggerates its importance and possibilities. Washington and its allies in Eastern Europe believed that it was not necessary to react to Russia and its proposals, and that it should first be modernized in accordance with their ideas.

With more prudent diplomacy, for example, there was a chance to avoid a disastrous scenario in Ukraine in 2014. The West tried to understand the true motives of the Kremlin, after all, it is no secret that Western government circles no longer trust Russia, suggesting that the real goal of its policy is not cooperation with the West, but strengthening Russia as one of the center of the future multipolar world. Moscow began to be publicly accused of trying to recreate an empire in the post-Soviet space. The fact that in the middle of the zero years the countries of Eastern Europe and the Baltic States joined the ranks of NATO and the European Union, which began to promote their policy options in relation to Russia, also played their part.

The Ukrainian factor

If recently it was believed in Europe that Russia's policy contradicts European values, now the opinion that Russia directly threatens the security of Europe, at least its individual countries, is becoming increasingly dominant. The current crisis in Ukraine is the culmination of small and medium-sized conflicts between Russia and the West over the past few years: the Chechen war, the Yukos affair, the murder of Politkovskaya.

The point of view that is widespread in Russia is that in Eastern European countries, including Ukraine, European politicians are betting on ultra-radical or even fascist forces that are not true. In Europe, support the current president of Ukraine Petro Poroshenko. Neither the “Right Sector” Yarosh, nor the Freedom Party, of the European elites, are popular, just like now Yulia Tymoshenko.

Why Europe stretches to America

Even 30-40 years ago, anti-American relations in Europe were very strong, but now they are completely marginalized. After World War II in Europe, people are accustomed to comfort and safety. And all this can provide only an alliance with the United States, and the Europeans are aware of this.


The Russian flag on the car militia in Kramatorsk Donetsk region 13 May 2014 of the year. Photo: Mikhail Pochuev / TASS


Moreover, it is believed that it was the Americans who, during the war, saved Europe from Hitler, and after it ended - from Stalin. In addition, Europeans and Americans share common values: democracy, the inviolability of the rights and freedoms of a citizen, and tolerance. Europeans do not think that in a strategic alliance with the United States they occupy a subordinate position, they consider themselves to be equal partners. It should be understood that Western countries in general and the European Union in particular are united not so much by a single economic basis, as by common civilizational values.

Future projections

The current conflict in Ukraine will end faster than we think. It may still be slowly fading, but soon it will be eclipsed by a more large-scale and serious confrontation, in particular in the Middle East. Inevitably cooperation between Russia and the West in the fight against Islamic extremism, which threatens both of them. We are united not only by common cultural and civilizational roots, but also by similar problems, such as the rapid decline in population. To survive in the future world, we are doomed to cooperation, to cooperation.

The next decade will be a serious test for Russia. The country will feel discomfort, feeling itself sandwiched between Europe and China. For her it is dangerous. The West will not abandon the policy of engaging Russia's western neighbors (Ukraine, Belarus and Moldova) in its sphere of influence. China, in turn, will not refuse to strengthen its presence in Central Asia through the policy of the “new silk road”. It is not excluded that the renewed Middle East, where the confrontation between Sunnis and Shiites is now beginning to redistribute borders, will become a new powerful pole of the world order capable of attracting the southern part of the post-Soviet space.

In the foreseeable future, the same processes and conflicts will continue as in previous years. For example, in Russia before 2024, power is unlikely to change.

The zero years nevertheless determined the contours of the new world order. It is safe to say that the conflict of the future will occur along the North-South line, not the East-West line.
Author:
Originator:
http://rusplt.ru/society/konflikt-buduschego-budet-proishodit-po-linii-severyug-a-ne-vostokzapad-13464.html
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  1. herruvim
    herruvim 15 October 2014 18: 43
    +45
    We have something to answer
    1. Goga101
      Goga101 15 October 2014 19: 40
      +24
      herruvim - Colleague, article "-", the author just yap. And about "Europe" - there is a good saying in the east - why talk to a ram, you need to talk to his shepherd - what can you talk about and negotiate with the Gay Europeans if everything is decided overseas?
      1. kodxnumx
        kodxnumx 15 October 2014 21: 18
        0
        How many people have so many opinions! You just need to respect the sovereignty of other countries to understand their interests. And do not act as if God had been caught .. I’m caught, then there will be less understanding and fuss, they don’t see logs in someone else’s straw for that discerned.
      2. 1812 1945
        1812 1945 15 October 2014 21: 58
        +3
        Quote: Goga101
        Colleague, article "-", the author just yap.

        I would say: some meanness in half with quite a certain stupidity. As for Alexander Rahr - not the worst person on planet Earth, quite a decent person. But it is not for him to teach Russia (unless - those at the HSE) - he lives - he is in the West. And here I agree with his lands: "Being determines consciousness!"
        1. The comment was deleted.
      3. 23 region
        23 region 15 October 2014 22: 11
        +3
        Quote: Goga101

        Goga101
        herruvim - Colleague, article "-", the author just yap.

        Abkhazia and South Ossetia were controlled by Moscow; Crimea was subsequently annexed

        The Germans would shut up and be silent in a rag, otherwise we recall how they occupied the GDR.
      4. The comment was deleted.
      5. Albert1988
        Albert1988 15 October 2014 22: 24
        +1
        Quote: Goga101
        the author is just yap.

        But the fact of the matter is that Rahr used to give very balanced and close to reality assessments of Russia and its policies. Apparently he began to write something like that because it is banal to fear that he will be branded "Putin's agent" and "the hand of the Kremlin" ...
        Well, if we assume that he really thinks so, then one should only marvel at the blindness and inertia of modern Europe - you see, she considers Russia a part of Europe and therefore Russia should also democratize according to its model !!!! Well, and the pearls about "saving Europe from Hitler by the Americans" are generally worth keeping silent.
        Although I see some explanation - as the author himself says, the Europeans are "accustomed to comfort" and, apparently, are so accustomed that they are ready to endure anything and go to anything in order to maintain this comfort, even if it means giving up their sanity and independence ...
        Well, how to fight the terrorists fed up by themselves - so "Russia help!"
    2. Denis fj
      Denis fj 15 October 2014 22: 15
      +2
      "Partnership" in the G8, in the Russia-NATO council in various European structures, it was just a cover operation for further expansion to the East. Yes, and there were no contradictions between Russia and the EU, except for the fair objections to the bombing of Yugoslavia, Libya, Iraq, but it was the ringleader that was the United States, but not Europe, which went about being attached and obediently followed the policy of the world gendarme
    3. Max_Bauder
      Max_Bauder 16 October 2014 15: 02
      0
      Quote: herruvim
      It is safe to say that the conflict of the future will occur along the North - South line, and not East - West.


      And figs to you! while Europe will be the mouthpiece of the United States, you will not be friends and you were not, expel your corrupt puppets of leaders ruining the country, the economy to please the whims of the United States, when you take the courage to expel the radicals of Islamists and gays, then we can talk about friendship, but judging by friendship according to what scenario the history of modern Europe is developing, I think the fate of sodom and Gomorrah awaits her.
  2. vsoltan
    vsoltan 15 October 2014 18: 43
    +4
    With the article, gentlemen officers, I agree. At first, fundamentalists ... and China will not miss its own. Until then - we will butt with the West ... which is not the worst; I believe that the West will not be able to sit aside. As recent historical events in the Near and Middle East show, but also the recent joint statements by Kerry and Lavrov ... they will not do without Russians .. Not a world war is coming, but a war of civilizations ... everything is much darker, I wrote here repeatedly on the forum. Do not be afraid of a dog that gives ... be afraid of the one that is silent. Hello to everyone who looks joyfully at the warming of relations with China ... and those scientists - and bring the enemy closer. So somehow.
  3. LEVIAFAN
    LEVIAFAN 15 October 2014 18: 51
    +7
    the ruins of the Reichstag satisfied
  4. rocker_39
    rocker_39 15 October 2014 19: 02
    +3
    Quote: vsoltan
    With the article, gentlemen officers, I agree. At first, fundamentalists ... and China will not miss its own. Until then - we will butt with the West ... which is not the worst; I believe that the West will not be able to sit aside. As recent historical events in the Near and Middle East show, but also the recent joint statements by Kerry and Lavrov ... they will not do without Russians .. Not a world war is coming, but a war of civilizations ... everything is much darker, I wrote here repeatedly on the forum. Do not be afraid of a dog that gives ... be afraid of the one that is silent. Hello to everyone who looks joyfully at the warming of relations with China ... and those scientists - and bring the enemy closer. So somehow.

    It is not regrettable, but it is true. China is a very slippery ally.
  5. Mountain shooter
    Mountain shooter 15 October 2014 19: 03
    +12
    The fool is gayropeysky. I do not want to live in a secondary country, from which everyone who wants to, pinch off piece by piece. And the dubious values ​​of frankly decaying Europe do not appeal to me. To the author - minus. Pop yourself, your tolerance.
    "Let us not move when the fierce Hun
    In the pockets of corpses will fumble
    Burn the city and drive the herd to the church
    And fry the meat of the white brothers "
    What a visionary was A. Blok!
  6. ImPerts
    ImPerts 15 October 2014 19: 04
    +12
    I cannot perceive the collapse of the USSR as a mere formality. For me this is really a disaster. But the most offended, annoying and annoying so far are that they are constantly trying to teach. They are scared, they do not understand, they need to bring everyone to one denominator and then relax. After all, these Western-democratic values ​​that are being imposed on us are strings for which you can always pull and confuse.
    But this annoys me and makes me resist.
    Hence the desire for autonomy and multipolarity. As well as inflated muscles in the form of the army, navy, air force and their nuclear component)))
  7. soviet skytourist
    soviet skytourist 15 October 2014 19: 08
    +11
    I hope the people will support their leader, and he, in turn, will not flinch and surrender his power. The most important thing is to unite the peoples of Russia and defeat the internal enemies, since without the help of Jude-Chubajis and the like, they will not defeat you
  8. BOB044
    BOB044 15 October 2014 19: 12
    +5
    No need to tease the bear, even though he is in the den. Will not be happy. hi
  9. Penzyac
    Penzyac 15 October 2014 19: 24
    +3
    Only the assertion that the conflict of the future will occur along the North - South line, and not the East - West, can be fully supported. But, the division of countries into North and South will be very conditional, little connected with geography, just like the division into East and West.
    1. Goga101
      Goga101 15 October 2014 19: 47
      +1
      PENZYAC - Colleague, transferring the confrontation from the conditional East-West to the equally conditional North-South: an old dream of overseas strategists - while they find themselves in the role of observing from the side and pouring kerosene into the fire from one side or the other. To this end, they are trying to drag us into this fuss with ISIS - and figs to them, not those times this "Zeikhert" conceived by them is clear to everyone, and most likely it is the West that will have to butt with the united (RF-PRC) East - and this is what they and "bzdut" wassat
      1. Penzyac
        Penzyac 15 October 2014 20: 11
        +1
        Quote: Goga101
        PENZYAC - A colleague, translating the confrontation from the conditional East-West to the equally conditional North-South: a long-standing dream of overseas strategists - in this case they find themselves in the role of observing from the side and pouring kerosene into the fire from one side or the other ...

        What makes you think that the West will be able to "stay on the sidelines"? I said that the division is purely arbitrary.
        In my opinion, the present West itself risks being divided into North and South. This can be seen even now, compare Germany and, for example, Greece. How do you like the Balkans and Turkey? Is it "West" or "East", "South" or "North"? I say - everything is conditional!
        1. Goga101
          Goga101 15 October 2014 20: 14
          +1
          PENZYAC - Colleague, as I write - it will not work for the "West" to pit us against the "South", and they themselves will not be able to remain in the role of spectator-judges. They will have to kick both with the "South" and with the "East" laughing
          1. Lelek
            Lelek 16 October 2014 00: 04
            +2
            Quote: Goga101
            will not come out of the "West" to pit us against the "South",


            True, Goga, he is Gosha, he is Yura. At the urgent request of Kerry to help in the war with ISIS from the north, Lavrov replied that we would help, but only with intelligence, and conduct the fighting yourself once got involved in it, not wanting an alliance with Syria.
    2. Argyn
      Argyn 16 October 2014 05: 24
      0
      Quote: PENZYAC
      Only the assertion that the conflict of the future will occur along the North - South line, and not the East - West, can be fully supported.

      In the stories there was NEVER a bloody warrior North - South, there was always only West - East. Do not be fooled by the words of Westerners.
  10. andrey_kz
    andrey_kz 15 October 2014 19: 28
    +8
    View from the Other Side. He obviously does not suit me. Especially the salvation of the world by America, goodwill towards Russia 90-00gg. from the west. They think that they saved us, but I'm from the USSR and I see everything that happens is not in pink.
  11. sergeybulkin
    sergeybulkin 15 October 2014 19: 28
    +15
    Russia was seen by Europeans as part of a "Greater Europe" from Lisbon to Vladivostok. The EU believed that Europe would only then become truly strong and prosperous when there would be democracy in its Western sense throughout its entire territory, including Russia. Thus, the European elites had clearly high expectations regarding Russia and the speed of its susceptibility to European values.

    This is the most heinous lie I've ever heard of Europeans.
    Never Russia in Europe was not considered part of Europe and never wanted us to become part of it. Russia has always been called Asia in Europe (since ancient times), and they always considered Russians as backward savage Asians. That is why Europe, together or separately, all the time wants to seize the territory of Russia and make its peoples their slaves. Let this German political scientist hang noodles on the ears of his hungry students. If it weren’t for BB, we wouldn’t be there.
    1. Goga101
      Goga101 15 October 2014 19: 51
      +2
      sergeybulkin - That's right - full "+"!
    2. IgorM
      IgorM 15 October 2014 20: 02
      +4
      We will not fight ISIS together with Europe! Let them substitute their own "European values". Forgotten what we put in millions for their prosperity. It's funny - we don't support Natsiks in Ukraine, we support Poroshenko, but he stands on the shoulders of Natsiks. Who, goats_ly, are you hanging noodles?
    3. vsoltan
      vsoltan 15 October 2014 22: 52
      +1
      As for the "outrageous" merits of the "father of the fatherland" - BB, if you please, I will doubt it. In terms of geographic location - we are not Europeans, we are not Asians, we are HYPERBORE. Can you argue?
      1. sergeybulkin
        sergeybulkin 16 October 2014 00: 12
        +1
        we are not Asians, we are HYPERBORES. Can you object?

        I could easily object - Hyperboreans fictional people from a fairy tale supposedly living in ancient times in Hyperborea. This legend is an exact copy of the tale of Atlantis and Atlantes. There’s no point in arguing about this, with the same success we can say that we flew from Alpha Centauri.
        And as for Asians - geography has nothing to do with it absolutely.
      2. Bayonet
        Bayonet 16 October 2014 04: 50
        0
        Quote: vsoltan
        we are hyperboreans. Can you object?

        In no case! And hyperboreans from which chamber? 140000 years old Ukrainians are not nearby?
        1. The comment was deleted.
        2. vsoltan
          vsoltan 16 October 2014 06: 52
          0
          Have Herodotus been discovered?
    4. DRA-88
      DRA-88 15 October 2014 23: 08
      -4
      Quote: sergeybulkin
      If it weren’t for BB, we wouldn’t be there.

      Are you a child from VeBePe?
      For example, I have Papa and Mama - very worthy people!
      And I can tell you, with full responsibility, that your I, my family and my children have nothing to thank !!!
      We live contrary to his hellish policies .. am
      1. sergeybulkin
        sergeybulkin 15 October 2014 23: 59
        +3
        I, my family and my children have nothing to thank !!!
        We live contrary to his hellish policies ..

        So you and your family have yet to realize what could have happened without VV, you will probably see it in the future when he leaves, I hope I will not survive ...
        1. DRA-88
          DRA-88 16 October 2014 00: 12
          -3
          Quote: sergeybulkin
          So you and your family have yet to realize what could have happened without VV, you will probably see it in the future when he leaves, I hope I will not survive ...

          I would like you and all of us to survive it !!!
          Hallelujah!!!
    5. Normal
      Normal 15 October 2014 23: 11
      -5
      Quote: sergeybulkin
      If it weren’t for BB, we wouldn’t be there.

      Kneeling and earnestly praying for a portrait of GDP
  12. igorkuzik
    igorkuzik 15 October 2014 19: 30
    +8
    The author believes that Russia is to blame for everything, and primarily because it has not given up its wealth to the West!
    1. Penzyac
      Penzyac 15 October 2014 20: 32
      +1
      Quote: igorkuzik
      The author believes that Russia is to blame for everything, and primarily because it has not given up its wealth to the West!

      Although I do not share the opinion of the author, but he does not think so, he directly writes that both sides are to blame. That's just with his assessment of who and what I am guilty of, as I think the majority of HE do not agree.
      The main thing is why he (the author) and the West represented by him decided that their idea of ​​the "correct" social structure and (supposedly) "universal" values ​​is true and suitable for all people, nations and countries? For some reason, they (the majority), especially the United States, believe that everyone should adapt to them, to their desires and ideas, including about democracy. For example, I have a different idea of ​​true democracy, and true democracy, including in international and interstate relations, presupposes mutual compromises and consensus.
      By the way, as it turns out, not only China or India, but also the Russian World is also a separate, self-sufficient civilization, and not part of a single European civilization, as many mistakenly believe.
      Here is my opinion, with respect. hi
  13. Abbra
    Abbra 15 October 2014 19: 34
    +1
    Incidentally, the German reasoned cleverly. And takes into account the story. Yes, that’s how it is, in principle. But the most important question: where in this situation will Europe be?
    1. Penzyac
      Penzyac 15 October 2014 20: 53
      +1
      Quote: Abbra
      Incidentally, the German reasoned cleverly. And takes into account the story. Yes, that’s how it is, in principle. But the most important question: where in this situation will Europe be?

      Smart, no one argues that smart. He takes history into account, but in its Western interpretation, it is decisive. Europe, as it was one of the outskirts of Eurasia, will remain so, as if it had not puffed up and praised itself. Yes, there (in the West) there is a lot of good, a lot is attractive and, even, a lot suits most people, peoples and countries. But, by no means everything, but much, even, should be rejected by humanity as erroneous, harmful and dead-end ...
      By the way, this also applied to the USSR. Having destroyed it, they (and we, unfortunately) "threw out the child with the water." Therefore, I would not want a similar destruction of Europe, and the United States, perhaps, too, instead of them in their place, I would not want to see a dense medieval pseudo-Islamic caliphate or, for example, some kind of "empire of necromancers", or even " wild field ".
      Let them live, but with their charter do not climb into other people's monasteries, including Ukraine - this is not their patrimony! Enough of them forever living in a strange mind (then Vatican, then London, then Washington) Poland.
  14. Kilo-11
    Kilo-11 15 October 2014 19: 39
    +7
    In general, it is clear that the US and the EU are not needed / in fact, no one doubted / independent, great, independent Power-Russia. The best option is Russia of the 90s, a semi-colony, led by a man like Eltsin. There is a beautiful wrapper for this project- freedom of the individual and speech, democracy, equality before the Law, etc. Yes, these gentlemen do not care how our country will live, how our people will live, the main thing is free access to our natural resources, to our labor resource, and most importantly, so that there would not be such a Great Power, but there was just a large controlled territory, and then all the gud-one owner remains, the United States and his faithful mongrel, the EU. our country, without your "common human" and gay European values. We found a ram in the form of Ukraine, we will break off this ram, and then it will be your turn! It's a matter of time.
  15. mountain
    mountain 15 October 2014 19: 44
    +5
    Sheer nonsense, yes, many countries would like to see Russia drunk and dirty, but Europe and the United States began to wash off two hundred years later, Russia. So, teach your children, and we, as it is, without your advice, will live.
    1. Penzyac
      Penzyac 15 October 2014 21: 14
      0
      Quote: mountain
      ... Europe and the United States began to wash two hundred years later, Russia. ...

      In my opinion, not two hundred years, but much more. belay You are straight europofil ... wassat
      1. mountain
        mountain 15 October 2014 21: 39
        0
        I completely agree with you, too lazy to dig in dirty laundry. But at the expense of Europrofile .., I'm not quite sure, I would like to know more. Much in history is foggy, especially with Russia.
  16. Nitarius
    Nitarius 15 October 2014 19: 49
    +6
    The article AIMS TO WHAT RUSSIA will die without them! so LETS GAS OFF and LOOK AT WINTER WITHOUT GAS ____)))
  17. Kilo-11
    Kilo-11 15 October 2014 19: 55
    +2
    The collapse of the Union is such an ordinary event for them. Yes, you can say it was a holiday, victory in the 3rd world cold war. Let it be so, they won, but these damn "Russian imperialists" are again for their own, but we are again for ours and will continue to bend our line! So gentlemen "teachers", all of us are trying to teach their rotten "values", the collapse of the Union is also millions of personal tragedies, genocide, thousands of killed people, forced migrants, etc. This tragedy continues in Little Russia, what they call Ukraine However, these "right" people do not understand this, they have already had 70 years of quiet life. The Americans saved them from Hitler and Stalin, but no, the Soviet soldier broke the back of fascism and saved both Americans and Europeans from Hitler under the leadership of JS Stalin ...
  18. Konstantinpm
    Konstantinpm 15 October 2014 20: 04
    -1
    Rara time to take off his purple glasses ...

    "It is safe to say that the conflict of the future will take place along the North-South line, not East-West." - for such a confrontation to be possible, there must be approximately equal centers of power in the South and North. I don't see a single really strong country in the south ...
    1. Penzyac
      Penzyac 15 October 2014 21: 25
      0
      Quote: KonstantinPM
      Rara time to take off his purple glasses ...

      "It is safe to say that the conflict of the future will take place along the North-South line, not East-West." - for such a confrontation to be possible, there must be approximately equal centers of power in the South and North. I don't see a single really strong country in the south ...

      South, North - it's all exaggerated. The tsarist government also did not see in the Bolsheviks, the proletarians of the capitals and peasant masses the depths of power capable of overthrowing their power, and in exchange to establish and maintain their ...
      A conversation for those who are straightforward thinking about the countries of the "golden billion" and everyone else. Is that clearer?
      Remember how in the old joke (I forgot the details, but I remember the ending), about the fact that the codla of rabbits is pi ... um a lion.
  19. Kilo-11
    Kilo-11 15 October 2014 20: 20
    +1
    They consider the people of Russia to be part of one European civilization, so they kind of worry about us like that, and when they did not consider us to be part of European civilization, we were always Asians for them, and most importantly, I repeat, Russia as a Great Power prevents them Yes, we ourselves are a Eurasian-Asian civilization, and so strong! Yes, industry is not in the best shape, we will raise it, yes China is a dubious partner, we are also not weak, there are traitors, including in the government, the time will come and we will ask them. that’s when the fascists from the Middle East get to the USA and Europe, and they will definitely get there, in my opinion, it’s not worth fighting for and saving these gentlemen, let them now get out. And Russia has been, is and will be, and it’s well-fed, contented and very calm!
  20. Viktor.N.Aleksandrov.
    Viktor.N.Aleksandrov. 15 October 2014 20: 25
    +1
    For me, the collapse of the state called the USSR is the collapse of Russia, no matter what administrative borders it shares. Stalin’s big mistake was to leave the republic’s right to secession in the constitution. And let the European dwarfs shake at the sight of a giant who again began to stand on his own, not clay feet, take away.
  21. ZYRYANIN
    ZYRYANIN 15 October 2014 20: 32
    0
    The rubbish article and conclusions are vague and controversial ... The only thing that defines it is a complete misunderstanding by the West of the realities of today
  22. seregatara1969
    seregatara1969 15 October 2014 20: 32
    0
    Kemsku parish again give them!
  23. nstarinsky
    nstarinsky 15 October 2014 20: 33
    0
    I did not evaluate the article, because for all the hostility of some theses, the topic should nevertheless be discussed. And any statements have a place to be.
    The main thing that repels me from this article is the figure of some incomprehensible West, which supposedly waited and hoped for friendship with the remnants of the USSR. This is the complete opposite of what we saw and experienced after the big country collapsed. It was this West that began to humiliate Russia by expanding NATO to the East, imposing liberal values ​​alien to Russia, based on the worship of long money. Freedom to broadcast and express thoughts includes the freedom to voice bitterness over the loss of a great power. And the West somehow stubbornly tried not to hear this "part of freedom". And the last confrontation now clearly shows who and what was thinking about whom.
    The loss of the country's ideological core can be as tangible as the severity of the economic turns imposed from outside. The cowboy approach of Western "advisers" - they say we will wake up tomorrow under capitalism - did not work for the country. We woke up to wake up, but the awakening was not pleasant. China has shown us that slow change is not as painful as shock therapy.
    So, the initial premises of this article, being false, do not give the opportunity to seriously take any logical conclusions of the author.
  24. uge.garik
    uge.garik 15 October 2014 21: 15
    +2
    Yes, not Europe We are not Asia! We are Russia! And Russia - where WE are! Although in America, Africa, Antarctica ... and further down the list ... that's why we are afraid of .., but with fright, why not do it.?! hence hatred ... well, we will not be eliminated ... Russian is a state of Soul and strength is ours ...
    1. Penzyac
      Penzyac 15 October 2014 21: 41
      0
      Quote: uge.garik
      Yes, not Europe We are not Asia! We are Russia! And Russia - where WE are! Although in America, Africa, Antarctica ... and further down the list ... that's why we are afraid of .., but with fright, why not do it.?! hence hatred ... well, we will not be eliminated ... Russian is a state of Soul and strength is ours ...

      Yes, we, exactly, RUSSIA! We ourselves are a civilization! Yes, it’s also still more likely European, not Asian, but ANOTHER EUROPEAN alternative to the western one. And they (the West) are afraid of us from their own misunderstanding, this is their internal inferiority complex. We don’t need to be afraid - we are the first to never attack anyone. We need to be respected, not afraid, then everything will be fine.
  25. chief.matros
    chief.matros 15 October 2014 21: 35
    0
    I wonder what he smokes before writing such articles?
  26. Normal
    Normal 15 October 2014 22: 28
    -1
    The author of this demonstrated a complete misunderstanding of what happened in Russia in the 90s,
    reluctance to take a sober look at Russia's relations with Europe, as well as the behavior of Europe and the United States itself.
    Inappropriate analogies, incorrect comparisons, incorrect understanding of the causes and premises, and as a result, false conclusions.
    Minus, of course.
  27. uizik
    uizik 15 October 2014 23: 20
    0
    This Rar is dreaming of a South-North boundary! If the confrontation will be West-East his world will come quickly. He knows how to score tanks!
  28. Emulty
    Emulty 15 October 2014 23: 24
    +1
    As soon as I see the words "Higher School of Economics", I immediately prepare for the stuffing. They have already sold for at least five years, if they were not initially formed only at their submission. All this pack from one list with: Radio Dozhd, Echo of Moscow, Andrei Makarevich, and of course the Higher School of Economics.
    Z.Y. In general, what can they teach there? If such a science as economics does not exist and cannot exist, because as the world market is dominated by some not so many people, what kind of laws can there be? Only the goals, objectives and benefits of these same people.
    1. smart75
      smart75 16 October 2014 01: 15
      0
      Not five. Originally created as such.
      And the economy is not studied there - it is a factory of "effective managers" and "financial analysts".
      Fifth Column Incubator.
  29. dmitrich
    dmitrich 16 October 2014 03: 41
    0
    Moreover, it is believed that it was the Americans during the war who saved Europe from Hitler, and after its end - from Stalin.
    this says it all, you can no longer read!
  30. Viktor Kudinov
    Viktor Kudinov 16 October 2014 05: 51
    0
    negative Those steps that Russia took in the 1990s. towards the West, there were perceived as her weakness. Clapping his hands to these steps, he did not take adequate steps towards Russia. He pursued his interests, ignoring the interests of our country. Take at least the entry of the Russian Federation into the WTO, as it was torpedoed under various pretexts. That liberal course of the 1990s. not justified itself. Today, the West has completely lost its mask and introduced a sanctions regime. Therefore, it is correct that a new course has been taken that corresponds to the mission of our country on Earth for more than 1000 years. Perhaps the author of the article is not happy with this. But today we are not happy with how the West treats us. And if he does not change his boorish behavior towards our country, he will still reap a rich harvest of his political and economic crises. stop
  31. sv-georgij
    sv-georgij 16 October 2014 06: 59
    0
    An interesting approach. We created ISIS there, weighed Ukraine, and you guys, let's sort it out. Pay for the restoration of Ukraine, carry out a ground operation against ISIS from them and threaten you, and we will give you a mythical cooperation with NATO, not intelligible promises with integration, but we will continue what we do. And the question is, why do we need such cooperation?
    1. fktrcfylhn61
      fktrcfylhn61 16 October 2014 07: 39
      0
      In one way or another, but the answers to this Euro-threat, and Muslim fanaticism, will still cost something! So actions in their defense should be such that it would not be different for the other !!!
  32. Dinko
    Dinko 16 October 2014 07: 10
    0
    Russia, Russia, Russia alone is to blame all around! An innocent geyropa was drawn into the conflict between America and Russia, and was not its original initiator from the filing of America. In short, less need to listen to any geyropey politicaloglogs!
  33. rotmistr60
    rotmistr60 16 October 2014 07: 11
    0
    The widespread point of view in Russia that in Eastern Europe, including Ukraine, European politicians rely on ultra-radical or even fascist forces is not true.

    Then how to understand all the actions of Europe in recent years. The EU turns a blind eye to the fact that in the Baltic states monuments of Soviet war-liberators are demolished, Nazis are honored, war crimes are committed in southeast Ukraine. In ukraine, frank fascists came to power calling for the extermination of Russians, Jews and all those who disagree. Or is it, according to A. Rahr, simply a politician.
  34. fktrcfylhn61
    fktrcfylhn61 16 October 2014 07: 35
    0
    Putin and the power elite created by him refused to join Russia to the West, putting the country on a “national-state” development path. ???

    According to theirs, and according to certain Russian liberal forces, Russia had to accept the whole system of Euro-values, together with all their distortions and even seduction of their own children ??? Truly demons in the flesh !!! What can and should be answered? Only: Get out !!!
  35. press officer
    press officer 16 October 2014 07: 45
    0
    Quote: ZYRYANIN
    The rubbish article and conclusions are vague and controversial ... The only thing that defines it is a complete misunderstanding by the West of the realities of today


    (The widespread point of view in Russia that in Eastern Europe, including Ukraine, European politicians rely on ultra-radical or even fascist forces is not true. In Europe, they support the current president of Ukraine Petro Poroshenko. Neither “Right Sector” Yarosh, neither Tyagnibok’s “Freedom” party is popular among European elites, just like now Yulia Tymoshenko.)
    Is Parashka an infuriating prez ?! Yeah ?! Kills his people! Super prezik! Maybe they’ll take it for themselves? Previously, there were other passages about Parashka, such as rotten, stupid and you can’t lie to him ... But now, what song has gone ... angry
    bully Here it is the foreign concept of Russia! fool Europe is rotten ... through rotten ... already stinks already .. fool Forget who will suffer the most in any situation! The Nazis are already running around Europe! The latter fled to Madrid, where they raided local students. But this is only the beginning! Or do they think that the Nazis and Nazis will not behave like that, but will be good guys? fool Well, with all sorts of military threats there, everything goes astray over Europe .. soldier
  36. Skuratov
    Skuratov 16 October 2014 19: 10
    0
    All to read
    I offer, to write a letter to the website of the State Dura, with the aim of extorting money for the bright idea of ​​dermocracy), to someone else they’re counting, and to send money to fight to Krajina, to the heroes of myuga-ostok. hto panel that paymet)
  37. Prager
    Prager 20 October 2014 16: 57
    0
    not to allow liberalists into power, to eradicate their economic model for the development of the Russian economy - then things in the country will get better. now the economic course continues, which was promoted under the eternally drunk Eltsin Gaidar. Russia is ruled by the ideological followers of the Gaidar, an extreme liberal. It will not bring anything good to the country. If this continues, we are doomed to either roll back or stagnate.