Military Review

A united front of threats: the Islamic state from the Caucasus to China

4
A united front of threats: the Islamic state from the Caucasus to ChinaThe incoming reports about the accession of individual terrorist organizations to the Islamic State (IG) are a real cause for concern. In particular, the media appeared information about the transition under the wing of the IG so-called. The Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU), which until then had been affiliated with the Taliban and Al Qaeda. Before 2002, the IMU was located in Tajikistan and Afghanistan, with headquarters in Kandahar, and after the invasion of the Americans, it changed its deployment to Pakistani Waziristan [1].

As a result of the interaction of these terrorist organizations, there is a high risk of the return of trained militants who have real military experience under the guidance of sufficiently competent IG commanders from the territory of Syria or the same Iraq. Given the active infiltration into the structures of the Baathist IG from the former Saddam army and security agencies, there are plenty of commanders in the ranks of the spreading Caliphate who are able to train and pass on their experience to new recruits. In addition, the financial capabilities of the IG allow him to attract to his side and professionals from abroad. In particular, information about the presence in the ranks of the IG of an officer of the French special services, allegedly the General Directorate of External Security - Direction Generale de la Securite Exterieure (DGSE) [2], recently passed. Due to the specifics of the topic touched at the moment, it is impossible to unequivocally say whether the information published in this regard is true or not, but such cases are not uncommon in stories intelligence services. It is known that for quite a long period of time Syria was actually a French colony, and certain ties with the Fifth Republic remained there. By the way, among the instructors who prepared the militants, who are still fighting against the government forces of Syria, French experts [3] were noticed. The fact that some of the “oppositionists” trained by American, British and French instructors turned to the side of the IG opened up a number of possibilities. The presence of agents of some Western countries in the ranks of the IG cannot be ruled out, although it is not possible to estimate its scale. However, the presence of trained militants in it means the possibility of the existence of potential communication channels between representatives of the Western special services and the leadership of the Islamists. By means of these connections, a professional is more than actually offering his services. This version is supported by the fact that a significant, if not overwhelming, part of the contacts on the part of the initiators takes place on a material basis, and the huge financial resources of the IG make it possible to recruit and pay for specialists of the highest level. Thus, we can draw an important conclusion: the acquisition of financial autarky by the Islamists, mainly due to robbery, oil trade, weapons and people (in fact the slave trade), makes it possible not only to recruit simple recruits into their ranks, but also high-class professionals from various armies and special services of the world.


Moreover, the self-sufficiency of the IG financially leads to an important consequence. If the terrorist groups joining it have the same goals or their interaction is mutually beneficial, then independence in the sources of funding of the IG acquires enormous significance. For leaders of the IMU and other organizations, ideological closeness and similarity of the tasks set with the goals of an IG independent of anyone means a significant limitation of third-party influence on them. There should be a clarification. Control over the financing of a terrorist organization gives a powerful lever of influence in the hands of its sponsor. It is by controlling the cash flow that sponsors seek to direct the activities of terrorists in the right direction for themselves in solving their local or geopolitical tasks. With the right approach to the processing of consciousness, the masses of fanatics can be sent in a given vector. If the situation changes and you need to forget about the enemy of yesterday and reorient to another, then the propaganda machine will work in a new way. What will be the mechanism for switching to a higher priority goal - it does not matter whether it is a provocation, a change in the rhetoric of controlled radical preachers, whom the sponsors will give the necessary command, or all of the above. For an organization not interested in being a toy in the hands of others, such a fate is categorically unacceptable. IG self-sufficiency largely means its subjectivity and substantial autonomy in decision-making from external players, since money was and remains the main condition here. Hence, structures like the IMU, having decided to move to the IG camp and agreeing to submit to the new owner, count on minimal influence from external factors on their decision-making. Considerable independence, stability and predictability of the Caliphate for the stated purposes, as well as the usual means and methods of achieving them, subject to ideological proximity, are important for the organizations adjacent to it, as they allow them to act according to the initially chosen path, even under the leadership of the Caliphate, but without looking at the wishes of the former curators, whose interests may be completely different.

Probably, the leaders of the IMU, having found an overlord in the IG, see a lot more opportunities to implement their plans within its structure, rather than being in the position of junior partner of Al-Qaida, the Taliban or continuing to receive money from the Pakistan Inter-Agency Intelligence - Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI). The actions of the IMU in the interests of these structures did not guarantee compliance with their own goals. However, once a step has been taken in the direction of joining the IG, it means that it has been verified and thought out, and all the costs associated with the subordination of the new leadership are less significant than the vulnerability of depending on their past sponsors. However, the above does not exclude the possibility of a banal diversification of sources of funding, being in a subordinate position with the Caliphate. It is likely that this form of existence of the IMU seems to be more productive for its leaders.

In addition, there is a risk of other terrorist organizations operating in different regions of the mainland joining the IG for the same reasons. In particular, some experts pointed out the possibility of joining the Imarat Kavkaz [4] IG, all the more it is known that among the high-ranking representatives of the new Caliphate there are people from the North Caucasus, in particular, the emir and in fact, the war minister of the organization red-bearded Abu Umar al-Shishani (born Tarkhan Batirashvili). This person close to the caliph Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi is an ethnic Chechen by origin and it is very likely that he has contacts with the current terrorist underground in the territory of the North Caucasus republics. Summarizing the messages of recent months, a certain trend is observed. So representatives of the IG have already sounded threats against Russia with the intention to “liberate” Chechnya and the Caucasus [5]. The leader of the Chechen Republic, Ramzan Kadyrov, has already given a harsh response to the Islamists: "I declare with full responsibility that the one who came to mind to threaten Russia will be destroyed where he did. We will not wait until he sits at the helm of the aircraft, he will go where his brothers Khattab, Abu Walid and other Western envoys of the West are rotting "[6]. As commissioned by 5 in October in Grozny, on the Day of the City and Kadyrov's birth, a terrorist attack occurred in which five police officers died and twelve more were injured [7]. At the moment, it is impossible to unequivocally assert that there is a connection between the statements of Islamists and Kadyrov’s reaction, but the short time between the response of the President of Chechnya and the terrorist attack on such a symbolic day cannot but draw attention to itself.

In the final part of the article, the author draws attention to the following detail. IG through its connections and international content under the strict leadership of the Caliph al-Baghdadi and ex-Baathist professionals actually sets itself up with various groups operating in the regions of the Middle East, the Caucasus and Central Asia. As a result, the IG has the ability to control and coordinate the Islamists over a vast territory, which is well within their characteristic expansionism and extensiveness, by including all new territories. Therefore, when assessing the actions and statements of the IG, one should pay attention to the fact that Islamist groups that pass to him into submission are located on the territory close to both Russia and China, and sometimes are inside them. Also, the proliferation of ISIS in Iraq poses a danger to Iran, which has already managed to respond to it, sending assistance to the incumbent authorities in Baghdad in the form of the Al-Quds special unit of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) under the command of Brigadier General Qasem Suleymani [8].

With regard to China and the Central Asian region, close relations should be noted that the IMU organization maintains with the Islamists in the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region (XUAR) of the People’s Republic of China, in particular with the Islamic Movement of East Turkestan (IDTB) and the Lobnor Tigers. In relation to the first, the Uzbek fundamentalists have already provided military and material assistance. Consequently, there is a risk of increased instability and the intensification of separatists in western China. On the territory of the republics that are part of the Russian Federation, the Imarat Kavkaz conducts its subversive activities, which was discussed above. In connection with the above, attention is drawn to the fact of the activation of the IG in the regions that are of tremendous importance for the three strategic opponents of the United States - Russia, Iran and China. The answer to the question of whether it happens by chance or not is ambiguous. In the first case, if the initiative belongs to the leadership of the IG, then this desire for expansion is solely a consequence of the essence of its existence through the seizure of new territories. The fact that the leaders of the IG are not supporters of cosmopolitan views can be seen in the example of their determination to create a new state, therefore their Caliphate is not mythical, but quite specific, which attracts all new supporters to it. Another question is how great are the claims of the leaders of the IG and how far should the Caliphate spread, in their opinion. If it includes both the Caucasus and Central Asia with a part of China, then attracting and pulling over to your side local terrorist organizations makes sense as a preparation of conditions for expansion. Having gained combat experience and received funding, the activity of such organizations will increase significantly compared with the previous period of their activities. As can be seen in this option, there is a two-way traffic, where each side at this stage receives its benefits. For the IS, it consists in replenishing its ranks with new volunteers and increasing its influence on the situation in Central Asia, when some of the IMU fighters will begin to go back. For the IMU itself, a source of funding is obtained from an organization that is as close as possible to it in the ideological sense, which allows it to act without taking into account the views of its former patrons.

The second option requires considering the situation from a wider angle. If we take the interest of Washington in the form of creating zones of instability around its strategic opponents, then in this strategy the emergence of the IG on the geopolitical battle scene turned out to be very useful. In assessing the likelihood of a new Caliphate acting in the interests of the United States, it is necessary to rely on the degree of its control by the Americans. Moreover, based on the analysis of the situation of the last weeks, it seems that if such control is present, it is small. Moreover, the rather chaotic attempts to bring to the business of curbing the IG of their NATO allies, as well as some countries of the Middle East, do not look like the actions of a power holding in its hands the grooves of government. However, if we take into account some aspects of the strategy used by the Obama administrations [9], the problem of low controllability of the IG is not as great as it might seem. Then the spread of the influence of the IG on the regions sensitive to US geostrategic opponents can really be not only an initiative of jihadists.

Thus, there is reason to state the gradual formation of a threat in the form of the emergence of a broad and united front against Russia and some other countries subjected to systemic pressure and attacks from Washington and its satellites. In this regard, it is extremely important to find effective opposition to the increased activity of terrorist organizations and bandit underground fundamentalists not only in the North Caucasus, but also to oppose them with active cooperation with the competent authorities of China, Iran and the countries of the Central Asian region, whose stability is of strategic importance for Russia.
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http://cassad.net/analytics/768-edinyy-front-ugroz-islamskoe-gosudarstvo-ot-kavkaza-do-kitaya.html
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  1. Old Man Leader
    Old Man Leader 14 October 2014 18: 50
    +3


    Conversation with Nikolai Starikov October 7, 2014.
    A conversation about the secession of Catalonia, who and for what plays oil prices,

    disobeying central bank, fifth column in the Russian government, monetary

    evil spirits, Chinese comrades and riots in Hong Kong, opium wars, threat

    disconnecting Russia from the SWIFT system, airstrikes on the “Islamic state” and

    inciting chaos in the Middle East, Russian gas supplies, sanctions against

    Russia, the management of the information field, the London revolutionary yeast.
    1. DRA-88
      DRA-88 14 October 2014 18: 51
      +4
      Entering Central Asia, wreaking havoc there is the dream of "zaluzhiya"
      1. The comment was deleted.
      2. Vitaly Anisimov
        Vitaly Anisimov 14 October 2014 19: 14
        +2
        Quote: DRA-88
        Entering Central Asia, wreaking havoc there is the dream of "zaluzhiya"

        As long as the USA and Israel exist (in their current quality) this will be so ..! Outbreaks of incomprehensible foci of tension of violence, etc. will constantly occur all over the world .. (especially around Russia, the circle closes) Clap your hands and cheeks, gentlemen, inflate .. There will be a real house for you .. Wait!
    2. Giant thought
      Giant thought 14 October 2014 19: 17
      +4
      Therefore, no reductions in the rearmament program of the army, and those who will advocate for this reduction, will be removed from their posts no matter what, starting with Siluanov.
    3. The comment was deleted.
    4. Denis fj
      Denis fj 14 October 2014 23: 07
      +1
      The Igilov theses and methods, frankly reeking of obscurantism and the Middle Ages, are very well suited to the Arab world, accustomed to live in such a format for centuries.
      In the Central Asian region, where secularism, secularism and some detachment of the majority of the population from the most fanatical orthodox dogmas prevail among the masses, a detailed one is unlikely to have any exciting prospects. It is enough to look at Afghanistan, where the Taliban with such ideologies did not succeed in imposing fanatical clericalism.
  2. The comment was deleted.
  3. soviet skytourist
    soviet skytourist 14 October 2014 18: 53
    +1
    old scripts in a new way, divide and conquer. much will depend on the Muslims themselves will they become puppets of globalizers
  4. Ober.K
    Ober.K 14 October 2014 19: 04
    +1
    Reference: a female rat can bring offspring up to 350 individuals per year ..., can you imagine what territories are needed for this and how much grain ....



    The fight against these hordes has been going on for centuries ... who won the question so far ... This is me, I remembered about zoology ...
  5. Romanychby
    Romanychby 14 October 2014 19: 14
    0
    A flea is also easier to crush in a mortar, and not to be caught one by one. It remains only to find out who will take it. America will 100% collapse. It is not a peaceful city to bomb.
  6. Mountain shooter
    Mountain shooter 14 October 2014 19: 15
    +1
    Pretty gin was released from the bottle mattress covers. They fed, armed. Now they don’t know how to drive back. There is a possibility that they will not be able to.
  7. Revolver
    Revolver 14 October 2014 19: 25
    +3
    However, given some aspects of the Obama administration’s strategy

    What aspects might have that which does not exist? One of the main Republican accusations against Obama and the shit is that Obama has no strategy in any field. If there was a strategy, he would understand that relations with Russia should not be spoiled. Islam is a threat to the whole world without exceptions, and there can be no and cannot be a united front against Islam without Russia.
    As it was said in old rhymes, "If I had a mind Lumumba Obama ... "
    1. Demon0n
      Demon0n 14 October 2014 22: 20
      0
      Quote: Nagan
      However, given some aspects of the Obama administration’s strategy

      What aspects might have that which does not exist? One of the main Republican accusations against Obama and the shit is that Obama has no strategy in any field. If there was a strategy, he would understand that relations with Russia should not be spoiled. Islam is a threat to the whole world without exceptions, and there can be no and cannot be a united front against Islam without Russia.
      As it was said in old rhymes, "If I had a mind Lumumba Obama ... "


      Opinion ... You are mistaken ..., here's the thing:
      1) Not a single politician is completely independent. Politics is a theatrical-team "sport" (including "theaters of the absurd") ... I will allow myself this allegory: "There is an island on the ocean on that island, there is an oak a hare - a duck, in a duck - an egg, ... "(I suppose the original source does not need any introduction ...).
      2) The strategy in the region is developed by the relevant specialists of the region, under the guidance of ideological customers (from the team, the highest echelon). ...- this is usually (exceptions are very noticeable due to characteristic features). Therefore, the policy of many states in the venom of cases does not change with the change of official representatives (it is worth considering the likelihood of having many teams, which always leads to some kind of diversity).
      3) The actual goal of the "states" is to create points of "pressure" in the necessary regions with subsequent use to destabilize the internal situation, and as a result of mass degradation in the social sphere. This is the actual "external army" of the states, possessing all the necessary attributes (attributes are not out of the question) to be considered as such.
      4) There is an abyss of time between the creation of a strategy and its implementation. So ... And IS and radical nationalists, and other radical "Islamists" - the essence - the army. With the exception of individual theatrical performances, the army does not fight its master (the opposite is also true as long as the necessary attributes are observed).
      5) Everything else is a spectacular show and theater of the absurd ("bread and circuses"), to hide the truth that is not disingenuous and dangerous (for the initiators). So there is a plan and a strategy, only to the present moment, which are in the process of deployment in the form of disparate and non-systemic factors (at first glance).
      6) Since the process has been started for a long time and the expected result seems to be quite positive, other personalities, quite naturally, are in a hurry to take advantage of the fruits (all within the framework of wolfish habits: "Thanks for my lunch, and now go die on the sidelines and don't bother eating"). It turns out that the "acute exacerbation" of criticism has other reasons ...

      P.S. About the self-sufficiency of IS - this is well thought out ... and most importantly - very "dogmatically" - plausible.
  8. surovts.valery
    surovts.valery 14 October 2014 19: 41
    +1
    Quote: DRA-88
    Entering Central Asia, wreaking havoc there is the dream of "zaluzhiya"

    Exactly, they didn’t "get it", it’s not a fact that this genie is so eager to go to Central Asia. They still have to figure it out there (in the Middle East), incl. and with mattress toppers. And we must at least not interfere with them in this. Maybe it's time for us to learn how to use these guys against our enemies, who appointed themselves as such (we were not the first to start). And we will not step on the American rake in this matter, we are smart enough.
  9. Romass
    Romass 14 October 2014 19: 56
    -1
    Amerika-sacked lady was always taken as the meanest formation on our planet. Having nothing to do with earthlings. They are organic viruses that are infected with sodomy hemorrhoids - external - to humans. But in fact, they are parasites on the body of our planet. They must be sent to the radiant world by the whole world, otherwise they deserve it with a slide. Time will come and all past mandates will slurp their zapadla in full. Let’s cleanse the earth from ame rozhas of the added viruses!
  10. starec.luka
    starec.luka 14 October 2014 20: 04
    0
    someone's nonsense
  11. Drunya
    Drunya 14 October 2014 21: 23
    0
    In addition, there is a risk of joining the IG for approximately the same reasons as other terrorist organizations operating in different regions of the mainland.

    India is also afraid - this is "her" Muslims can join the ISIL - about
    1 million people.
    By the way, in the churches Fathers have long been saying that there will be severe persecution of Orthodoxy (is this not meant)
  12. komel
    komel 14 October 2014 23: 43
    0
    In my opinion, the Caucasus is closely monitoring the situation in Iraq and Syria.

    Against this background, Azerbaijan signed a Cooperation Plan for 2015 with Russia. Russia and Azerbaijan will conduct naval exercises in the Caspian. The program on equipping the Armed Forces of Azerbaijan with modern weapons and equipment of Russian production, as well as issues of military education, is being successfully implemented. In accordance with the plan, the Azerbaijani army will be trained in various educational institutions of the Ministry of Defense of Russia.

    Georgia received a package of "enhanced cooperation" with NATO and expects to receive weapons from NATO to strengthen defense capabilities, training, exercises, communication and interaction. Georgia hopes for the United States, but in reality, instead of NATO, militants who have long settled in the Pantis Gorge are going to Georgia. Omar al-Shishani: "Father, do not worry, I will come home and show the Russians. Thousands of people are already walking with me, and there will be more of them. We will repay Russia," his father Temur Batirashvili quoted the militant. It turns out that in the place of democracy Georgia can get Islamists and fanatics, who themselves Georgians will be included in the Red Book as a species that could not withstand the cultural revolution. On the whole, positively assessing Georgia's receipt of a package of "enhanced cooperation" with NATO, Georgian experts point out that the country has not thereby increased its defense capability. For the attempt at sovereignty, Georgia forgot about the people of Georgia themselves, their religion and history.
  13. Berezin alex
    Berezin alex 15 October 2014 00: 13
    0
    It's time to revive SMERSH units to combat saboteurs and spies. The methods of L.P. Beria were very effective, and we should pay attention to them. Spit on relations with the outside world, we must act exclusively in our interests. Climbing in a crowd - burning whole continents with an atom, may our land not fall into these reptiles
  14. Viktor Kudinov
    Viktor Kudinov 15 October 2014 03: 41
    0
    No. The engagement of IS supporters in a vast territory where radical Islam has certain positions makes IS an especially serious force, because it can coordinate the actions of radicals in its interests, delivering sensitive blows to the opposing coalition in many countries, while simultaneously influencing them with blackmail radicalization. negative