What is behind the revision of the program of rearmament of the Russian army?
While some representatives of the Russian authorities say that the economic sanctions of the West will not significantly affect the Russian economy, since Russia is looking for and finding new trade and economic partners, others are already announcing the need to curtail or revise certain programs. Among those government officials who say that it is impossible to carry out a number of state programs under existing schemes is the Minister of Finance of Russia Anton Siluanov. According to the head of the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation, the situation for Russia today is such that the developed program for the modernization of Russian weapons to 2020 in its original version is impossible.
Siluanov said that work will now begin on the preparation of a new modernization program. Siluanova quotes RIA News:
It is worth recalling that the current program of rearmament of the Russian army provides for the allocation of about 20 trillions of rubles from the budget for up to 2020 of the year. About 3 trillions more are planned to be directed to the modernization of the production base of the military-industrial complex. This program works up to 2022.
The situation with the statements of Siluanov that “we will not pull such a defense industry” is in many ways reminiscent of the situation 3-4-year-old, but only with Kudrin. Russian Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin also said that given the current situation in the global economy, investing trillions of rubles from the budget to modernize the Russian Armed Forces is detrimental to the economy. When Kudrin was just starting to talk about this in the 2010 year, Russia's GDP growth was about 4,5% with the oil price range of $ 76-92 per barrel. In the 2011 year, when the price of oil went up (oil in April 2011 cost over $ 120 per barrel), while GDP growth remained at almost the same level (4,3%), and when investment reached an absolute record, reaching almost 0,4 trillion. dollars, Kudrin still did not depart from his rhetoric. And 26 September 2011, Mr. Kudrin, has ceased to be the Minister of Finance of Russia (after a famous skirmish with then-President Dmitry Medvedev).
Kudrin in the Ministry of Finance was gone, and the implementation of the rearmament program was in full swing. Only in the first years it was possible to achieve significant success: dozens of new surface and submarine warships, the restoration of military infrastructure in the Arctic, new airplanes and helicopters, armored vehicles, radar stations, other types weapons and military equipment, a significant increase in the number of the most diverse exercises and checks of the combat readiness of the troops.
Did the state rearmament program hit and fleet in the Russian economy? There is hardly a definite answer to this question. Kudrinophiles and pseudo-pacifists, naturally, will say that, look, look: economic growth from 4,3% in 2011 fell almost to zero in 2014 - therefore, there is an effect. Like, if they invested somewhere else or continued to stuff funds in dollars, euros and pounds, then the growth would have been wow! ..
But is it possible at the same time to wait from the above-mentioned people for really objective formulas of the fact that it was the increase in defense spending that brought economic growth in Russia to a minimum? Nobody will give such an answer, since in this case one would have to admit that revisions of forecasts for GDP growth in the negative direction in a number of countries in Europe and the rest of the world can also be associated with military programs and additional expenses in this direction.
Of course, one could continue to keep money in the funds, inflating these funds to unbelievable sizes, but why could this add to Russia's economic growth? If you make money and put money exclusively under the pillow (and in this situation with the option of investing in foreign currency - also under the pillow of a far from the most friendly “neighbor”) “just in case of fire”, this does not mean that you can live consider improved ...
With all the nuances, it is safe to say that investing in the modernization of the army and navy brings its positive results. Considering the current situation with armed conflicts that have swept the planet, to remain with the weapons option that Russia had before the start of the state program would mean getting frank security problems.
And what do we have today? Yes - oil has already shown that its price can sink below $ 90 per barrel, yes - the ruble has reached the historical minimum value against the dollar and the euro, yes - the sanctions against the Russian Federation continue, but is this a real reason to refuse the program for which the modernization is going? Whether we want it or not, but, apparently, it will not be possible to disown the revision of the program this time. In this regard, you can, of course, spit and fall into pessimistic rhetoric about what the army and navy are going to put on the altar of worship of the petrodollar. But ... There is no point in falling into black pessimism about the development of a new rearmament program.
The fact is that the “old” (that is, the current) modernization state program is by no means a set of dogmas that drive both the military department and the producers into the most severe limits. The program was made very sensibly: it was originally prescribed a variant in which implementation directions can be reordered in one format or another. Of course, always and everywhere I would like the Russian economy to grow annually by tens of percent, and the barrel of oil cost so much that it was enough for the army, the social sphere, and the production sector, but that did not work with “tens of percent” and “ a golden barrel "... And if it didn't work out, then you have to listen to the same Siluanov ...
As an explanation of what the government is going to move to, it is worthwhile to present the words of the deputy prime minister of the Russian Cabinet Dmitry Rogozin. Rogozin, in particular, declares that one program, when allocating new (considerable) funds, is likely to grow into another. According to Rogozin, the main emphasis in the new modernization program will be on new technical principles for creating weapons and equipment, and the technologies used should be transferred to the civilian sphere. In the program used today extremely high costs for the production of weapons and military equipment for the banal reason: the base of industrial enterprises and associations, unfortunately, is far from optimal. There are frequent cases when new equipment is produced on equipment half a century ago, which leads to reduced accuracy and attempts to restore characteristics separately, high waste generation (inefficient use of materials and raw materials), increase the lead time and, as a result, increase the total cost of production at the exit. Even more - the corruption component. The Prosecutor General’s Office reveals hundreds of violations and crimes of an economic nature in the implementation of a defense order: from the appearance of additional intermediaries to the frankly inappropriate use of funds. From here and frequent revisions of estimates in the direction of increasing budget costs.
It turns out that the government sets an ambitious task: to create an updated program with the elimination of corruption components hindering the modernization and at the same time reducing costs. That is, it will not be possible to pour in hundreds of billions according to the existing scheme, when control over spending is extremely dubious. If such a program really allows you to reduce costs and even at lower costs implement all that was planned initially, then you will only have to applaud the government and say another thanks to the sanctions. But so far the applause is far ... We are waiting for the development of the situation with the modernization program.
PS On Saturday, Prime Minister Medvedev signed an order to provide guarantees on a bond loan to Oboroprom. The Russian government gives guarantees with a total volume of 3,26 billion rubles for the implementation of a project to create promising engines for civilian aircraft by a defense enterprise aviation. This may well be considered the first sign of the new integrated modernization program.
Siluanov said that work will now begin on the preparation of a new modernization program. Siluanova quotes RIA News:
We in the framework of this new weapons program want to revise the amount of resources that are being spent to make it more realistic. Now we simply cannot afford it and we will work with the Ministry of Defense to determine the costs that the budget can finance.
It is worth recalling that the current program of rearmament of the Russian army provides for the allocation of about 20 trillions of rubles from the budget for up to 2020 of the year. About 3 trillions more are planned to be directed to the modernization of the production base of the military-industrial complex. This program works up to 2022.
The situation with the statements of Siluanov that “we will not pull such a defense industry” is in many ways reminiscent of the situation 3-4-year-old, but only with Kudrin. Russian Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin also said that given the current situation in the global economy, investing trillions of rubles from the budget to modernize the Russian Armed Forces is detrimental to the economy. When Kudrin was just starting to talk about this in the 2010 year, Russia's GDP growth was about 4,5% with the oil price range of $ 76-92 per barrel. In the 2011 year, when the price of oil went up (oil in April 2011 cost over $ 120 per barrel), while GDP growth remained at almost the same level (4,3%), and when investment reached an absolute record, reaching almost 0,4 trillion. dollars, Kudrin still did not depart from his rhetoric. And 26 September 2011, Mr. Kudrin, has ceased to be the Minister of Finance of Russia (after a famous skirmish with then-President Dmitry Medvedev).
Kudrin in the Ministry of Finance was gone, and the implementation of the rearmament program was in full swing. Only in the first years it was possible to achieve significant success: dozens of new surface and submarine warships, the restoration of military infrastructure in the Arctic, new airplanes and helicopters, armored vehicles, radar stations, other types weapons and military equipment, a significant increase in the number of the most diverse exercises and checks of the combat readiness of the troops.
Did the state rearmament program hit and fleet in the Russian economy? There is hardly a definite answer to this question. Kudrinophiles and pseudo-pacifists, naturally, will say that, look, look: economic growth from 4,3% in 2011 fell almost to zero in 2014 - therefore, there is an effect. Like, if they invested somewhere else or continued to stuff funds in dollars, euros and pounds, then the growth would have been wow! ..
But is it possible at the same time to wait from the above-mentioned people for really objective formulas of the fact that it was the increase in defense spending that brought economic growth in Russia to a minimum? Nobody will give such an answer, since in this case one would have to admit that revisions of forecasts for GDP growth in the negative direction in a number of countries in Europe and the rest of the world can also be associated with military programs and additional expenses in this direction.
Of course, one could continue to keep money in the funds, inflating these funds to unbelievable sizes, but why could this add to Russia's economic growth? If you make money and put money exclusively under the pillow (and in this situation with the option of investing in foreign currency - also under the pillow of a far from the most friendly “neighbor”) “just in case of fire”, this does not mean that you can live consider improved ...
With all the nuances, it is safe to say that investing in the modernization of the army and navy brings its positive results. Considering the current situation with armed conflicts that have swept the planet, to remain with the weapons option that Russia had before the start of the state program would mean getting frank security problems.
And what do we have today? Yes - oil has already shown that its price can sink below $ 90 per barrel, yes - the ruble has reached the historical minimum value against the dollar and the euro, yes - the sanctions against the Russian Federation continue, but is this a real reason to refuse the program for which the modernization is going? Whether we want it or not, but, apparently, it will not be possible to disown the revision of the program this time. In this regard, you can, of course, spit and fall into pessimistic rhetoric about what the army and navy are going to put on the altar of worship of the petrodollar. But ... There is no point in falling into black pessimism about the development of a new rearmament program.
The fact is that the “old” (that is, the current) modernization state program is by no means a set of dogmas that drive both the military department and the producers into the most severe limits. The program was made very sensibly: it was originally prescribed a variant in which implementation directions can be reordered in one format or another. Of course, always and everywhere I would like the Russian economy to grow annually by tens of percent, and the barrel of oil cost so much that it was enough for the army, the social sphere, and the production sector, but that did not work with “tens of percent” and “ a golden barrel "... And if it didn't work out, then you have to listen to the same Siluanov ...
As an explanation of what the government is going to move to, it is worthwhile to present the words of the deputy prime minister of the Russian Cabinet Dmitry Rogozin. Rogozin, in particular, declares that one program, when allocating new (considerable) funds, is likely to grow into another. According to Rogozin, the main emphasis in the new modernization program will be on new technical principles for creating weapons and equipment, and the technologies used should be transferred to the civilian sphere. In the program used today extremely high costs for the production of weapons and military equipment for the banal reason: the base of industrial enterprises and associations, unfortunately, is far from optimal. There are frequent cases when new equipment is produced on equipment half a century ago, which leads to reduced accuracy and attempts to restore characteristics separately, high waste generation (inefficient use of materials and raw materials), increase the lead time and, as a result, increase the total cost of production at the exit. Even more - the corruption component. The Prosecutor General’s Office reveals hundreds of violations and crimes of an economic nature in the implementation of a defense order: from the appearance of additional intermediaries to the frankly inappropriate use of funds. From here and frequent revisions of estimates in the direction of increasing budget costs.
It turns out that the government sets an ambitious task: to create an updated program with the elimination of corruption components hindering the modernization and at the same time reducing costs. That is, it will not be possible to pour in hundreds of billions according to the existing scheme, when control over spending is extremely dubious. If such a program really allows you to reduce costs and even at lower costs implement all that was planned initially, then you will only have to applaud the government and say another thanks to the sanctions. But so far the applause is far ... We are waiting for the development of the situation with the modernization program.
PS On Saturday, Prime Minister Medvedev signed an order to provide guarantees on a bond loan to Oboroprom. The Russian government gives guarantees with a total volume of 3,26 billion rubles for the implementation of a project to create promising engines for civilian aircraft by a defense enterprise aviation. This may well be considered the first sign of the new integrated modernization program.
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