Black Tuesday October 11, 1994
20 years ago, 11 in October 1994, Russia, the collapse of the ruble against the dollar occurred (the so-called “black Tuesday”). In just one day on the MICEX Stock Exchange, the dollar rose by more than 27% (from 3081 rubles to 3926 rubles per dollar). The demand for currency 11 October reached a record - 335,7 million dollars with the proposal of all 24,25 million. "Black Tuesday" became a symbol of the general degradation of the Russian economy after the collapse of the Soviet Union and an indicator of the activity of "reformers" who, in fact, fulfilled the order to destroy the national economy countries and the socio-economic genocide of the peoples of the Russian civilization. Unfortunately, these figures and their ideological heirs are still considered the “elite” of the Russian Federation.
The situation in the Russian economy at this time was determined by the following processes: a general decline in the national economy, a decrease in the volume of GDP and progressive inflation. All this was aggravated by the growing outflow of capital abroad, the growth of non-payment, the “dollarization” of the economy and the financial congestion from the West, which was intensified by loans issued to the Russian authorities by international monetary organizations. In the economy, there were other negative phenomena.
It should be noted that all these processes were manageable. Although the liberals in the years of perestroika and “reforms” tried to convince the population that the market “regulates” everything. Thus, high inflation has so far been attempted to explain the existence of an “excess” mass of money in circulation. According to the quantity theory of money, the amount of money in circulation is equal to the sum of the prices of goods sold. The more money, the higher the price. However, the population in the early 1990-s was deceived. They are deceiving now, when inflation has grown in recent years despite the lack of money in the real sector.
During perestroika, there was a shortage of goods (it was also artificially caused, but this is a topic for another conversation). Since 1992, it has been rapidly eliminated - both imported and domestic goods rushed to the market. True, along with the deficit, they dealt a mortal blow to domestic industry and agriculture. It seemed that the level of consumption of the population should grow. Indeed, during perestroika, unsecured money accumulated and the standard of living accumulated, as compared with the Brezhnev era, fell. Now the demand has been met. It is clear that at the same time there was an increase in prices for goods, but even with the increased and ever-increasing prices, the goods would continue to come true, to meet the demand, until the so-called. The “money overhang” (the surplus of money, the part of the money supply that people have only because they cannot spend this money) has not completely disappeared.
At the same time, the level of consumption of the population was supposed to grow, and an increase in living standards would occur. However, this level continued to fall. Obviously, prices did not rise because extra money poured into the market and not because demand exceeded supply. The reason is different. The "extra" money was constantly in the language of the reformers (apparently, in their pocket), the population did not have them. Otherwise, the population would have dramatically improved their standard of living. Essentially, nThe policy of the then authorities, aimed at reducing government spending on social needs, public sector wages, armed forces, etc., was the plunder of the people and socio-economic genocide. The only question is who of the statesmen and officials did this consciously and is the enemy of the people, and who sincerely believed in Western theories, becoming a fool.
Russia has created an amazing system of plunder of the country and the people, sucking money, resources and valuable materials to the West and partially the East. The local new capitalists, the emerging comprador bourgeoisie, did not make any contribution. "New Russians" could now push up prices with impunity and arbitrarily, lay in them any kind of imaginable and fantastic costs, profits and super-profits, just stealing, etc. However, they were only a serving stratum, the real leaders of the process were in the West.
In Russia, not only the standard of living of consumers did not increase from “excess” money, but most conscientious producers did not see the money either. Most of the capital flowed to the West. This process was organized through the "dollarization" of the economy. The dollar has become the primary indicator of inflation and generally the main financial indicator. It was reported in the first lines. Newsas critical information. Because of this, even a certain psychosis has developed in society. Everyone was watching the dollar hard. The liberals extolled the slightest signs of its stabilization as their victory. As a result, all the attention of society was tied to the dollar, which has become a symbol of the entire economy. Commodity prices were pegged to the dollar. A whole layer of speculators has appeared - from street money changers to banking structures. They speculated on the game in the depreciation of the ruble. Another take-off of the dollar was carried out, prices for imported goods rose immediately, and then for domestic goods. As a result, domestic inflation was the result of the depreciation of the ruble in the foreign exchange market. The ruble has become a toy in the hands of speculators.
Thus, inflation was not initiated in the commodity market, and not in the Russian economy in general. It arose outside the national economy, but proceeded and developed in it. Inflation was an external factor and did not arise as a result of a spontaneous market game, as the liberals tried and tried to convince, but artificially created and subjugated the "elements" of the market.
An internal tool that helped the West pump out capital from Russia was a network of commercial banks led by the Central Bank, which also, in fact, was a private shop. Against the background of a massive depletion of the people and the degradation of the national economy, from which the capital necessary to preserve the existing production and development was pumped out, the banking network began to resemble a vampire shining from the blood drunk. In fact, with the help of this system, Russia-USSR stole national wealth, which was accumulated for decades of hard work. Real resources were exchanged for green paper, they bought it back and brought it back to the West.
The policy of the Central Bank allowed to enrich certain groups of the population. Thus, for quite a long time, the Central Bank refinancing rate was lower than the inflation rate, that is, the Central Bank gave money for nothing to commercial banks. Another method of robbery was widespread payment delays. They were explained by "technical problems" by the physical shortage of cash in the country. The main reason was the desire to earn extra money. Inflation was beneficial to debtors and banks, through which all payments were made. The mechanism was extremely simple: let's say, inflation is 30% per month, that is, 1% per day. The bank delays the payment and, instead of sending the payment to the address, sends money to the currency exchange and buys dollars. On the next day, you can sell dollars at a price that increased by 1%. This percentage is left to itself, and the amount due is sent to the addressee. 1% per day is tens of percent per month and hundreds per year. As a result, financial speculators received profits that were unthinkable for a normal economy. In fact, this area of profitability almost equaled the drug trade. It is not surprising that the “debtor syndrome” covered almost all the offices that were involved in money matters.
The greatest profit could be obtained through the use of the MICEX rate. This institution was a kind of monopolist in the foreign exchange market. In the name of the chimera of liberalism, the state was removed from the regulatory functions; therefore, all the potential capabilities of the MICEX were exploited by large speculators in the name of their vested interests. Inflation was a tool with the help of which it was possible to “honestly” assign other people's money, and on a large scale. To do this, they started buying up dollars on the MICEX, panic is spreading: everyone thinks that a surge of inflation begins and rush to buy dollars. As a result, inflation does begin. When the panic reaches its peak, you can sell dollars and count money made from the air. More information about this process of robbing the population can be read in the work of A. Usov “K stories 1992-1998 reforms. ”
Such machinations solved the problem of not only enriching the new "elite", which began to serve the interests of the owners of the West in Russia, but other important tasks. So, a blow was struck to the country's financial system, it was actually occupied, the ruble exchange rate was undermined, and the dollar was artificially raised. The dollar (the “golden calf”) has become the god of a certain stratum of the population, ready to go to the betrayal of national interests for the sake of personal enrichment. There was a process of dollarization of the Russian economy, i.e. the process of eliminating the financial sovereignty of countries. In addition, there was a process of capture by Western manufacturers of the Russian market.
The main goal of the reformers was not market reforms, not the growth of the welfare of the population, not financial stability and other excuses, but servicing the strategic interests of the West. This was the main task of the "reformers." They began to throw a financial noose on Russia even under Gorbachev (external debt), while the liberals continued and deepened this policy of financial and economic enslavement of Russia. The theft of compradors and speculators-financiers in the West turned a blind eye, it was a kind of "salary", a reward for serving clerks-managers. The reformers were allowed to "feed" at the expense of the peoples of the Russian Federation, to become the "elite", the masters of life. Although in the West, they knew the true price of lackeys and serfs. They turned Russia into a colony of the West and were rewarded with the opportunity to reward themselves.
Black Tuesday 11 October 1994 only showed the prevailing trend in the economy. Since June, 1994 has been increasing "defaults", that is, there was a game on the dollar rate. From June to September they grew 6-7 times. The funds were withdrawn from circulation and accumulated for transferring to the stock exchange and buying up dollars. This led to a fall in payments to the budget, where a “hole” was formed in 40-45 trillion. rubles. This caused emissions and inflation. In July, the money supply increased by 10%, in August - by 12%. Inflation rose from 4-5% to 7-8%.
Central Bank for some reason hastily lowered the refinancing rate. Although it is clear that in the period of inflation, the fee for the loan should not be negative. The Central Bank continued to distribute money in vain, instead of increasing the percentage. Sberbank and other banks have reduced interest on deposits. The Ministry of Finance has further aggravated the situation, saying that from 1995, it will impose a tax on income on deposits. As a result, the outflow of ruble deposits and the growth in demand for currency began. In July, the population spent on the currency 3,7 trillion. rubles (at the beginning of the year it was 1,9 trillion), in August already 6 trillion, in September 6,6 trillion. At the same time, the Central Bank, for “incomprehensible” reasons, stopped regulating the rates of buying and selling currency to the public. The whole turn has become speculative. And commercial banks began buying up currency.
It is also worth noting that in 1994, Russia had a positive balance in foreign trade (compared to 1993, the increase was almost 2 times). That is, the supply of currency to the markets did not decline, but grew. Panic arose not as a result, but in spite of the objective picture.
Now you can break a big kus. State structures took part in this game. So, the Ministry of Finance and the State Tax Service related to the panic on the MICEX (report of the State Commission of O. Lobov “On the results of investigating the reasons for the sharp destabilization of the financial market”, WP 9.11.94). 23 August saw a “gray day” - demand for dollars exceeded supply by 310 million, the Central Bank extinguished this surge by “injection” into 307 million. On October 4, the situation developed similarly: excess demand for 326 million and a logical response of the Central Bank again (entering additional 310 million). According to the idea, the Central Bank, the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Economic Development should have been “interested” in the crisis that has arisen and dealt with the situation. However, this did not happen. Moreover, 11 in October, commercial banks again play in concert - the excess of demand reaches up to 312 million dollars. And then the Central Bank makes a "trick": it reduces the supply to 80 million. The dollar exchange rate has risen sharply.
Thus, the Central Bank allegedly did not “appreciate” and did not “present” the whole degree of danger, the MICEX management considered that everything was “normal”, since speculation on the stock exchange is normal. The Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Economic Development have withdrawn. And certain structures tore a big score. Already October 11, some banks have started the game to lower the dollar. For example, the bank Gusinsky "Most" sold 14 million dollars, and two days later, when the dollar depreciated slightly, he bought 18 million dollars for the same rubles.
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