Scenarios for the future division of Ukraine
Ukraine has become the scene of the struggle between two trends in the development of the modern world. The United States, together with the European Union, on the one hand, is striving to preserve its political, economic and military hegemony, and Russia, on the other hand, is upholding a multi-polar world and the preservation of the identity of countries and peoples.
At this stage, Ukraine is a key element in this struggle and, not being a subject of international politics from the very beginning, it finally became the puppet of the United States in the global confrontation with Russia when the putschists came to power.
Behind any actions of the opposing sides there are always specific interests that they pursue. Therefore, when analyzing the confrontation in Ukraine and assessing possible scenarios for the development of the situation, it is first necessary to identify the countries and elite groups that influence the unleashed conflict and determine the interests driving them.
Interests of the main players
The main players in the field of the Ukrainian conflict are the United States, the European Union, Russia and the elite groups of Ukraine. The population of Ukraine is hardly worth considering as a force influencing the process, since even during a popular uprising it will be controlled and directed to the right direction for external players.
What are the interests of the main players?
USA
Creating a state hostile to Russia from Ukraine, stirring up an armed conflict on the borders of Russia, drawing the Russian armed forces into conflict, advancing NATO bases to the borders of Russia, establishing a puppet regime in Kiev, weakening the economies of the EU and Russia due to mutual economic sanctions.
EC
The weakening of Russia as a competitor in the Eurasian space, the separation of Ukraine from Russia, the elimination of the economic potential of Ukraine, the development of the Ukrainian market, the exploitation of Ukrainian resources (black soil, coal, ore).
Russia
Holding Ukraine in its geopolitical space in confrontation with the West, removing NATO bases from its borders, establishing a loyal regime in Kiev, restoring a joint economic space, returning the Ukrainian people to the Russian cultural and civilizational space.
Elites of Ukraine
Keeping the national oligarchic regime in power in order to continue robbing the people and the country, leaving the Euro-Atlantic umbrella under protection to protect against Russia's “imperial ambitions”, leaving the Russian cultural and civilizational space, preserving the territory of the state within the existing borders early decay.
As you can see, the interests of the Ukrainian society are not going to protect anyone; becoming the puppet in the hands of the United States, the elite of Ukraine can only keep the country from general chaos and popular rebellion, which will inevitably happen during an economic collapse and military defeats. None of the parties has set itself the task of creating an effective state to ensure the welfare of society. Everyone is fighting for their interests and trying to realize them by losing the other side.
All the vicissitudes of the conflict that has been going on for almost a year have shown that two geopolitical players — Russia and the United States — will decide the fate of Ukraine, while at the same time they will only seek to uphold their interests to the maximum. The Ukrainian elite, by virtue of its political impotence, is not an independent player, and the EU is not able to seriously resist the economic and military dictates of the United States. The leadership of the DPR and LPR are also not independent players, at the first stage of the uprising they were under the control of the Donbass oligarchs Akhmetov and Efremov, and now they are subject to the influence of Russia.
The United States, having achieved serious success in accomplishing a coup d'état in Ukraine and bringing its puppets to power with the help of the EU, began the process of rapid economic and political integration of Ukraine into the structures of the European Union as a poor relative, leaving military integration in NATO for the future.
Russia instantly responded with the return of the Crimea, and in the Donbass, first the oligarch-controlled began and then the outbreak of control, which eventually resulted in the proclamation of the DNR and the LC.
Poroshenko’s regime, meekly complying with the American instructions to escalate the conflict, sought to clear the Donbass militarily, but after suffering enormous losses, it was forced to negotiate with the militia. Having suffered a blitzkrieg failure, the Kiev authorities and the US are trying to blame Russia for everything, knowing full well that without its support, the uprising would have been quickly suppressed.
Russia, of course, provides not only humanitarian aid, certainly supports military equipment, ammunition, specialists, and sometimes "vacationers." But this assistance is metered and does not allow the militia to win a final victory.
There are several reasons for this: the lack of consensus in the political leadership of Russia on ways to resolve the conflict, sane and authoritative political leaders in the Donbass and a unified command and "partisan" in the military leadership of the republics, an unexpectedly harsh for Russia reaction of the militias agreements with Kiev
Geopolitical players declare non-interference and, for various reasons, do everything possible to delay the conflict and seek to realize their interests, not particularly interested in the opinions and problems of Ukrainian society. Now everything has concentrated on the Donbas, it has become a point of crystallization of the crisis and how further events will unfold will be largely determined here. The resolution of the crisis in the current state of the “special status of the DPR and the LPR” is not beneficial to anyone, the main players have not achieved their goals, and there is a new round of clash for Ukraine.
It is already clear that to achieve the realization of their interests in full will not be possible for either of the parties, since there is a tough conflict of mutually exclusive interests of two powerful players who will not allow each other to get everything. In this regard, various scenarios of the development of the conflict and the future fate of the state of Ukraine are possible.
Scenarios for the future of Ukraine
Depending on the military, political, and economic successes (failures) of the opposing sides and on-going explicit and behind-the-scenes negotiations, there can be several scenarios and each of them can take place with a certain probability.
What are these scenarios.
1. Ukraine is united and unitary
The scenario is purely theoretical, it is possible with the military victory of Kiev, the elimination of the DPR and the LPR, the country's retention from economic collapse, the political cleansing of the entire Southeast and Russia's surrender of all its positions.
After the uprising and the victories of the militias "one and indivisible" is not visible at all, even the version of some federation was already late. It is hard to imagine Donbass and Galicia after thousands of dead on both sides reconciled and do not defend their values.
Russia is almost forever losing Ukraine, which very quickly joins NATO, NATO bases appear on the borders of Russia, Russia is losing its status as a leading global player.
The United States wins the most significant victory after the collapse of the Union, contributes to the establishment of "liberal fascism" in Ukraine and integrates Ukraine into Euro-Atlantic structures as a "poor relative."
2. Ukraine without a foreign body in the form of Galicia
Such a scenario is possible when all of Ukraine passes under the control of Russia as a result of a popular uprising against the established regime after the economic collapse of the state or the crushing defeat of the Ukrainian army and the seizure of most of the country's territory by militia.
Naturally, Galicia will not agree to be in such a state under any pretext. She herself will be asked to float freely, or the new elite will offer her this, not wanting to see in the new state a hostile population, a hotbed of extremism and Bandera fascism.
Russia is returning Ukraine to the Russian cultural and civilizational space, the pro-Russian regime comes to power in Kiev, and the construction of the union state of Russia begins.
The United States is suffering a crushing defeat and is rolling back to the borders of Eastern European countries.
3. Branch of Donbass
This scenario preserves the conquests of the militia in the current or administrative borders of the two regions. Exit to the administrative borders of the republic may well by military means or as a result of backstage agreements between Russia and the United States.
For Russia, this scenario bears only a headache, only a small part of the territory of Ukraine passes under its control and maintenance, and the rest becomes pro-Western and a member of NATO. None of the geopolitical issues is solved, there is no land corridor to the Crimea, other regions of Novorossia are thrown at the mercy of Kiev. This scenario suits Russia as an intermediate one with a subsequent build-up of forces in the Donbas and a movement deep into Ukraine.
The United States can easily arrange this scenario, they gain control over practically all of Ukraine without Donbass, isolate the Crimea and reach the borders of Russia. Kiev, after military defeats, can go for such an exchange, it is better to lose little and keep everything else under control.
With the consent of Russia, this suits the military and political leadership of the DPR and the LPR, they seek separation from Ukraine, and further state-building is postponed until later.
4. Separation of Novorossia from Odessa to Kharkov
Compared to the scenario of separating the DPR and LPR, this is fundamentally different only in a larger territory and is possible when Russia decides to attack the militia against Kharkov and Odessa or to take control of this territory after the economic collapse and chaos in Ukraine.
For Russia, this scenario is also unacceptable, since in addition to obtaining a larger territory and a corridor to the Crimea, there are still the same minuses in geopolitical terms. The United States takes control of most of Ukraine, NATO bases can appear on the borders of Russia in the Sumy and Chernihiv regions and the zone of US influence will move only by 150 - 200 km in the Kharkiv region. One of the advantages is the exit to Transnistria and the construction of a safety arc from the south.
For the United States and Kiev, losses are unacceptable, Ukraine loses access to the sea and the Black Sea ports, almost the entire industrial and raw material potential and becomes an economically insolvent state.
For Russia and the United States, for various reasons, this scenario is unacceptable, for the United States too great losses, and for Russia, the acquired advantages do not solve the geopolitical tasks.
5. Department of the Left Bank with the Odessa and Nikolaev regions
The scenario is possible with the catastrophic defeat of Kiev and the United States from the militia, the successful attack of the militia on Kiev, the expulsion of the ruling elite from Kiev and the establishment of a new government in the seized territories. This is also possible with the economic collapse of the state, the loss of full controllability by the power structures and the onset of general chaos.
It is possible that in this case, the US will have to abandon NATO troops from the west in order to hold at least part of the Right Bank and retaliate Russian troops from the east with access to Kiev. The line of contact (modern Elba 1945 of the year) may be somewhere along the Dnieper and in order to avoid a global conflict, everyone will have to stop and sit down at the negotiating table.
This scenario puts an end to the independence of the Ukrainian state, while the Right Bank, in part or in whole, goes under the protectorate of the US and the EU. The left bank forms a new state in close alliance with Russia or Novorossia is part of the Russian state, and actually "Ukraine" in its historical borders with the capital, Kiev remains independent under the strict control of Russia.
From the analysis of the above scenarios, we can conclude that:
In the interests of the United States and Kiev:
- to keep Ukraine "united and indivisible", which is almost impossible after the military victories of Donbass;
- an acceptable scenario - to lose the Donbass;
- unacceptable scenario - separation of Novorossia or the Left Bank.
In the interests of Russia:
- to keep Ukraine united without Galicia;
- an acceptable scenario - the division of Ukraine on the Left Bank and Right Bank;
- unacceptable scenario - separation of Donbass or Novorossia.
To consolidate their victory, the opposing sides will strive to realize a scenario in which the authority controlled by Russia or the United States, recognized by the international community, will be established in Kiev.
The United States, having ensured that its puppets came to power in Kiev, is in a more advantageous position, while Russia in order to recognize its victories at the international level as a fait accompli, it is necessary to solve the problem of establishing a regime loyal to Kiev.
The Russian leadership as a final victory will not be satisfied with the scenarios of separating the unrecognized enclaves of Donbass or Novorossia on the “Transnistrian” type and preserving the US-controlled regime in Kiev, as it pulls a lot of problems for the future of these enclaves for Russia. Therefore, for the realization of their geopolitical interests, Russia would prefer scenarios that end with the expulsion of the Kiev elites from the power Olympus and the seizure of power in Kiev by the elites of the new generation.
In this regard, for Russia, when choosing a compromise scenario, the most preferable is the division of Ukraine into the Right Bank and the Left Bank and the establishment of pro-Russian power in Kiev. A similar section has already taken place in history when Russia and Poland divided the lands of today's Ukraine in the Andrusovo world of 1667, and Kiev temporarily remained with Russia for two years. But Kiev was not returned to Poland, and with time, the Right Bank and Poland turned out to be in the Russian state. So the story can be repeated and Kiev will expect the fate of the bargaining chip in the hands of global players.
All the scenarios are reduced to the victory of one of the parties and the preservation of the unity of Ukraine or the inability to win, followed by the inevitable collapse of the state. At this stage, it is clear that neither Russia nor the United States is able to win the final victory, and depending on the current political and military situation, the opposing parties will probably have to work out mechanisms for coordinating their interests, seek a compromise and go for options that suit both parties. .
- Yuri Apukhtin
- http://alternatio.org/articles/articles/item/32397-%D1%81%D1%86%D0%B5%D0%BD%D0%B0%D1%80%D0%B8%D0%B8-%D0%B1%D1%83%D0%B4%D1%83%D1%89%D0%B5%D0%B3%D0%BE-%D1%80%D0%B0%D0%B7%D0%B4%D0%B5%D0%BB%D0%B0-%D1%83%D0%BA%D1%80%D0%B0%D0%B8%D0%BD%D1%8B
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