Military Review

Scenarios for the future division of Ukraine

55
The fight for Ukraine is in full swing, outwardly everything looks decently - an independent Ukraine has undergone an invasion of wild barbarians from Russia and with the help of the “civilized” West seeks to defend its sovereignty. In fact, there is a civil war in the country, people are dying, one part of society did not want to submit to the Kiev authorities and rebelled, and the authorities are trying to suppress the uprising by military means.

Ukraine has become the scene of the struggle between two trends in the development of the modern world. The United States, together with the European Union, on the one hand, is striving to preserve its political, economic and military hegemony, and Russia, on the other hand, is upholding a multi-polar world and the preservation of the identity of countries and peoples.

At this stage, Ukraine is a key element in this struggle and, not being a subject of international politics from the very beginning, it finally became the puppet of the United States in the global confrontation with Russia when the putschists came to power.

Behind any actions of the opposing sides there are always specific interests that they pursue. Therefore, when analyzing the confrontation in Ukraine and assessing possible scenarios for the development of the situation, it is first necessary to identify the countries and elite groups that influence the unleashed conflict and determine the interests driving them.

Interests of the main players

The main players in the field of the Ukrainian conflict are the United States, the European Union, Russia and the elite groups of Ukraine. The population of Ukraine is hardly worth considering as a force influencing the process, since even during a popular uprising it will be controlled and directed to the right direction for external players.

What are the interests of the main players?

USA

Creating a state hostile to Russia from Ukraine, stirring up an armed conflict on the borders of Russia, drawing the Russian armed forces into conflict, advancing NATO bases to the borders of Russia, establishing a puppet regime in Kiev, weakening the economies of the EU and Russia due to mutual economic sanctions.

EC

The weakening of Russia as a competitor in the Eurasian space, the separation of Ukraine from Russia, the elimination of the economic potential of Ukraine, the development of the Ukrainian market, the exploitation of Ukrainian resources (black soil, coal, ore).

Russia

Holding Ukraine in its geopolitical space in confrontation with the West, removing NATO bases from its borders, establishing a loyal regime in Kiev, restoring a joint economic space, returning the Ukrainian people to the Russian cultural and civilizational space.

Elites of Ukraine

Keeping the national oligarchic regime in power in order to continue robbing the people and the country, leaving the Euro-Atlantic umbrella under protection to protect against Russia's “imperial ambitions”, leaving the Russian cultural and civilizational space, preserving the territory of the state within the existing borders early decay.

As you can see, the interests of the Ukrainian society are not going to protect anyone; becoming the puppet in the hands of the United States, the elite of Ukraine can only keep the country from general chaos and popular rebellion, which will inevitably happen during an economic collapse and military defeats. None of the parties has set itself the task of creating an effective state to ensure the welfare of society. Everyone is fighting for their interests and trying to realize them by losing the other side.

All the vicissitudes of the conflict that has been going on for almost a year have shown that two geopolitical players — Russia and the United States — will decide the fate of Ukraine, while at the same time they will only seek to uphold their interests to the maximum. The Ukrainian elite, by virtue of its political impotence, is not an independent player, and the EU is not able to seriously resist the economic and military dictates of the United States. The leadership of the DPR and LPR are also not independent players, at the first stage of the uprising they were under the control of the Donbass oligarchs Akhmetov and Efremov, and now they are subject to the influence of Russia.

The United States, having achieved serious success in accomplishing a coup d'état in Ukraine and bringing its puppets to power with the help of the EU, began the process of rapid economic and political integration of Ukraine into the structures of the European Union as a poor relative, leaving military integration in NATO for the future.

Russia instantly responded with the return of the Crimea, and in the Donbass, first the oligarch-controlled began and then the outbreak of control, which eventually resulted in the proclamation of the DNR and the LC.

Poroshenko’s regime, meekly complying with the American instructions to escalate the conflict, sought to clear the Donbass militarily, but after suffering enormous losses, it was forced to negotiate with the militia. Having suffered a blitzkrieg failure, the Kiev authorities and the US are trying to blame Russia for everything, knowing full well that without its support, the uprising would have been quickly suppressed.

Russia, of course, provides not only humanitarian aid, certainly supports military equipment, ammunition, specialists, and sometimes "vacationers." But this assistance is metered and does not allow the militia to win a final victory.

There are several reasons for this: the lack of consensus in the political leadership of Russia on ways to resolve the conflict, sane and authoritative political leaders in the Donbass and a unified command and "partisan" in the military leadership of the republics, an unexpectedly harsh for Russia reaction of the militias agreements with Kiev

Geopolitical players declare non-interference and, for various reasons, do everything possible to delay the conflict and seek to realize their interests, not particularly interested in the opinions and problems of Ukrainian society. Now everything has concentrated on the Donbas, it has become a point of crystallization of the crisis and how further events will unfold will be largely determined here. The resolution of the crisis in the current state of the “special status of the DPR and the LPR” is not beneficial to anyone, the main players have not achieved their goals, and there is a new round of clash for Ukraine.

It is already clear that to achieve the realization of their interests in full will not be possible for either of the parties, since there is a tough conflict of mutually exclusive interests of two powerful players who will not allow each other to get everything. In this regard, various scenarios of the development of the conflict and the future fate of the state of Ukraine are possible.

Scenarios for the future of Ukraine

Depending on the military, political, and economic successes (failures) of the opposing sides and on-going explicit and behind-the-scenes negotiations, there can be several scenarios and each of them can take place with a certain probability.

What are these scenarios.

1. Ukraine is united and unitary

The scenario is purely theoretical, it is possible with the military victory of Kiev, the elimination of the DPR and the LPR, the country's retention from economic collapse, the political cleansing of the entire Southeast and Russia's surrender of all its positions.

After the uprising and the victories of the militias "one and indivisible" is not visible at all, even the version of some federation was already late. It is hard to imagine Donbass and Galicia after thousands of dead on both sides reconciled and do not defend their values.

Russia is almost forever losing Ukraine, which very quickly joins NATO, NATO bases appear on the borders of Russia, Russia is losing its status as a leading global player.

The United States wins the most significant victory after the collapse of the Union, contributes to the establishment of "liberal fascism" in Ukraine and integrates Ukraine into Euro-Atlantic structures as a "poor relative."

2. Ukraine without a foreign body in the form of Galicia

Such a scenario is possible when all of Ukraine passes under the control of Russia as a result of a popular uprising against the established regime after the economic collapse of the state or the crushing defeat of the Ukrainian army and the seizure of most of the country's territory by militia.

Naturally, Galicia will not agree to be in such a state under any pretext. She herself will be asked to float freely, or the new elite will offer her this, not wanting to see in the new state a hostile population, a hotbed of extremism and Bandera fascism.

Russia is returning Ukraine to the Russian cultural and civilizational space, the pro-Russian regime comes to power in Kiev, and the construction of the union state of Russia begins.

The United States is suffering a crushing defeat and is rolling back to the borders of Eastern European countries.

3. Branch of Donbass

This scenario preserves the conquests of the militia in the current or administrative borders of the two regions. Exit to the administrative borders of the republic may well by military means or as a result of backstage agreements between Russia and the United States.

For Russia, this scenario bears only a headache, only a small part of the territory of Ukraine passes under its control and maintenance, and the rest becomes pro-Western and a member of NATO. None of the geopolitical issues is solved, there is no land corridor to the Crimea, other regions of Novorossia are thrown at the mercy of Kiev. This scenario suits Russia as an intermediate one with a subsequent build-up of forces in the Donbas and a movement deep into Ukraine.

The United States can easily arrange this scenario, they gain control over practically all of Ukraine without Donbass, isolate the Crimea and reach the borders of Russia. Kiev, after military defeats, can go for such an exchange, it is better to lose little and keep everything else under control.

With the consent of Russia, this suits the military and political leadership of the DPR and the LPR, they seek separation from Ukraine, and further state-building is postponed until later.

4. Separation of Novorossia from Odessa to Kharkov

Compared to the scenario of separating the DPR and LPR, this is fundamentally different only in a larger territory and is possible when Russia decides to attack the militia against Kharkov and Odessa or to take control of this territory after the economic collapse and chaos in Ukraine.

For Russia, this scenario is also unacceptable, since in addition to obtaining a larger territory and a corridor to the Crimea, there are still the same minuses in geopolitical terms. The United States takes control of most of Ukraine, NATO bases can appear on the borders of Russia in the Sumy and Chernihiv regions and the zone of US influence will move only by 150 - 200 km in the Kharkiv region. One of the advantages is the exit to Transnistria and the construction of a safety arc from the south.

For the United States and Kiev, losses are unacceptable, Ukraine loses access to the sea and the Black Sea ports, almost the entire industrial and raw material potential and becomes an economically insolvent state.

For Russia and the United States, for various reasons, this scenario is unacceptable, for the United States too great losses, and for Russia, the acquired advantages do not solve the geopolitical tasks.


5. Department of the Left Bank with the Odessa and Nikolaev regions

The scenario is possible with the catastrophic defeat of Kiev and the United States from the militia, the successful attack of the militia on Kiev, the expulsion of the ruling elite from Kiev and the establishment of a new government in the seized territories. This is also possible with the economic collapse of the state, the loss of full controllability by the power structures and the onset of general chaos.

It is possible that in this case, the US will have to abandon NATO troops from the west in order to hold at least part of the Right Bank and retaliate Russian troops from the east with access to Kiev. The line of contact (modern Elba 1945 of the year) may be somewhere along the Dnieper and in order to avoid a global conflict, everyone will have to stop and sit down at the negotiating table.

This scenario puts an end to the independence of the Ukrainian state, while the Right Bank, in part or in whole, goes under the protectorate of the US and the EU. The left bank forms a new state in close alliance with Russia or Novorossia is part of the Russian state, and actually "Ukraine" in its historical borders with the capital, Kiev remains independent under the strict control of Russia.

Scenarios for the future division of Ukraine


From the analysis of the above scenarios, we can conclude that:

In the interests of the United States and Kiev:

- to keep Ukraine "united and indivisible", which is almost impossible after the military victories of Donbass;

- an acceptable scenario - to lose the Donbass;

- unacceptable scenario - separation of Novorossia or the Left Bank.

In the interests of Russia:

- to keep Ukraine united without Galicia;

- an acceptable scenario - the division of Ukraine on the Left Bank and Right Bank;

- unacceptable scenario - separation of Donbass or Novorossia.

To consolidate their victory, the opposing sides will strive to realize a scenario in which the authority controlled by Russia or the United States, recognized by the international community, will be established in Kiev.

The United States, having ensured that its puppets came to power in Kiev, is in a more advantageous position, while Russia in order to recognize its victories at the international level as a fait accompli, it is necessary to solve the problem of establishing a regime loyal to Kiev.

The Russian leadership as a final victory will not be satisfied with the scenarios of separating the unrecognized enclaves of Donbass or Novorossia on the “Transnistrian” type and preserving the US-controlled regime in Kiev, as it pulls a lot of problems for the future of these enclaves for Russia. Therefore, for the realization of their geopolitical interests, Russia would prefer scenarios that end with the expulsion of the Kiev elites from the power Olympus and the seizure of power in Kiev by the elites of the new generation.

In this regard, for Russia, when choosing a compromise scenario, the most preferable is the division of Ukraine into the Right Bank and the Left Bank and the establishment of pro-Russian power in Kiev. A similar section has already taken place in history when Russia and Poland divided the lands of today's Ukraine in the Andrusovo world of 1667, and Kiev temporarily remained with Russia for two years. But Kiev was not returned to Poland, and with time, the Right Bank and Poland turned out to be in the Russian state. So the story can be repeated and Kiev will expect the fate of the bargaining chip in the hands of global players.

All the scenarios are reduced to the victory of one of the parties and the preservation of the unity of Ukraine or the inability to win, followed by the inevitable collapse of the state. At this stage, it is clear that neither Russia nor the United States is able to win the final victory, and depending on the current political and military situation, the opposing parties will probably have to work out mechanisms for coordinating their interests, seek a compromise and go for options that suit both parties. .
Author:
Originator:
http://alternatio.org/articles/articles/item/32397-%D1%81%D1%86%D0%B5%D0%BD%D0%B0%D1%80%D0%B8%D0%B8-%D0%B1%D1%83%D0%B4%D1%83%D1%89%D0%B5%D0%B3%D0%BE-%D1%80%D0%B0%D0%B7%D0%B4%D0%B5%D0%BB%D0%B0-%D1%83%D0%BA%D1%80%D0%B0%D0%B8%D0%BD%D1%8B
55 comments
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  1. Abbra
    Abbra 10 October 2014 18: 18
    +28
    All this in one way or another is true ... But it is painfully cynical. However, politics is such disgusting ...
    1. herruvim
      herruvim 10 October 2014 18: 23
      +10
      For the realization of their geopolitical interests, Russia most preferred scenarios ending with the expulsion of Kiev elites from the power Olympus and the seizure of power in Kiev by a new generation of elites.

      In short, throw off the junta and legally bring to power people loyal to Russia
      1. Password
        Password 10 October 2014 21: 36
        +9
        For the realization of their geopolitical interests, Russia most preferred scenarios ending with the expulsion of Kiev elites from the power Olympus and the seizure of power in Kiev by a new generation of elites.

        And where do the elites of the new generation come from now? The new generation has already nurtured ukronatsiks who hate Russia, the United States has been doing this for two decades, and now the fruits are there. And in order for elites loyal to us to appear in Ukraine, it is necessary first of all in Russia to have patriotic sovereign elites (and not lackeys of the golden calf), IMHO.
        1. boni592807
          boni592807 11 October 2014 00: 17
          0
          And why not the letter St .... c. And the place and situation corresponds, a sort of Ermolov, cure, educate and re-educate. In world history, this can not be counted among Europe, the USA and Russia. If only a minimum has been reached under item 5. Let us be realistic, too good, also not good. Yes, and maidanutyh to a minimum. Let Europe jump, with a gift from the USA and smaller HEROES to us!
      2. I am a Russian
        I am a Russian 10 October 2014 21: 45
        +3
        Quote: herruvim
        For the realization of their geopolitical interests, Russia most preferred scenarios ending with the expulsion of Kiev elites from the power Olympus


        good tragedies in Ukraine - a clear confirmation of that a Ukrainian in power is a disaster.

        Quote: herruvim
        In short, throw off the junta and legally bring to power people loyal to Russia


        From Donetsk, Lugansk or Russian ...
      3. captain
        captain 11 October 2014 11: 02
        +5
        Kiev is anti-Russian, I studied there at school and at a military school, served and I know this by hearsay. Back in 1972 there was a thought that Ukraine feeds all of Russia, poor and stupid. Donbass was then considered a place where drunks and bandits live, from whom there is no use (he served in Ukraine and heard about this more than once). The author of the article is largely right, but about the loyal Russia of Ukraine without Galicia, this is nonsense. It is good if they create New Russia on the left bank of the Dnieper (this part of the population is mentally close to us, not all, but most people treat us normally). The author did not mention Transcarpathia, but in my opinion, dissatisfaction with the activities of the Ukrainian authorities is ripening there and, apparently, in certain circumstances they will create their own state.
        1. I am a Russian
          I am a Russian 21 October 2014 22: 27
          0
          Quote: captain
          Kiev is anti-Russian, ..


          Alas but it is

          .
          Quote: captain
          Back in 1972, the idea walked there that Ukraine feeds all of Russia, poor and stupid.


          You + captain
          Ukrainian you are head over heels in blood ... your "mind" will never raise Ukraine from its knees, but Russia itself will rise from its knees.
      4. core
        core 11 October 2014 12: 12
        0
        DELIVERED MINUS, 23 years there were loyal regimes, lay at our expense until open Bandera. stop eating. only a military-political protectorate, plus a school curriculum fully adopted from the Russian, with some exceptions. ban on the word ukraine.
    2. Nitarius
      Nitarius 10 October 2014 18: 48
      +3
      Any Struggle for PEACE is BLOOD! 1945 is an example! want PEACE have banged the source by any means!
    3. Rus2012
      Rus2012 10 October 2014 19: 11
      +4
      Quote: Abbra
      All this is more or less true ...

      The world is on the eve of the "big war", against this background, the civil war in Ukraine does not pull above the regional theater of operations. America has already spat on the country and kuev (the State Department refused to fund further). The EU also doesn't know what to do with this yoke and a heavy suitcase without a handle ...
      For Russia to untie its hands and actions without looking at this regional theater of operations, it is necessary to conclude a truce between Ukraine and Novorosia on acceptable terms (which we will issue now).
      1. Fin
        Fin 10 October 2014 21: 25
        +3
        Quote: Rus2012
        For Russia to untie its hands and actions without looking at this regional theater of operations, it is necessary to conclude a truce between Ukraine and Novorosia on acceptable terms (which we will issue now).

        Also inclined to this result. Now, none of the parties will be able to achieve significant results, only people will be laid. To freeze the conflict, to establish life in LDNR, to strengthen the BCH, a lot of things will happen during the winter. The main theater switched to BV. We look at Turkey, they dare to invade Syria then everything will begin.
    4. Giant thought
      Giant thought 10 October 2014 19: 31
      +7
      In any case, Ukrainian fascism must be destroyed, otherwise it will revive again, and again innocent people will die.
      1. Penzyac
        Penzyac 10 October 2014 21: 33
        +1
        Quote: Giant thought
        In any case, Ukrainian fascism must be destroyed, otherwise it will revive again, and again innocent people will die.

        True - even the separation of Galicia (option 2 of the article) without its denazification is not permissible in my opinion! stop
      2. fedorovith
        fedorovith 10 October 2014 21: 44
        0
        Look at the flag, blue is the negative of yellow, yellow is the negative of blue, there are no such flags in the world
    5. Denis fj
      Denis fj 10 October 2014 22: 20
      0
      Let me explain for the slow-witted: the United States and in particular Barak are proud, they are ready to suffer defeat, but at the same time save face. For the entire public to consider the United States - even the aggressor, but cool! Here they have achieved a lot: weakened Russia's position in the EU, undermined the economies of Russia and the EU at a minimum of their costs. And if you consider that they started from scratch - with nothing: Putin had all the aces. They can safely consider this an achievement only if they have enough Common Sense - to retreat. As the situation shows: they are not going to fight for Ukraine, because understand that this is the Caribbean Crisis - on the contrary. It will be enough for them that the region will and will remain "restless" for many years to come. But they themselves have almost surrendered their Junta!
  2. Abbra
    Abbra 10 October 2014 18: 21
    +4
    The Donbass militia and the Kiev authorities signed an agreement on the delimitation of the region. According to the Prime Minister of the DPR, Alexander Zakharchenko, in the hands of the security forces they remain now controlled by them Mariupol, Slavyansk and Kramatorsk, which the militias left in July.
    The authorities of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic signed an agreement with Kiev on the demarcation line, RIA Novosti writes.
    “We have signed an agreement with Kiev on the demarcation line. According to him, the security forces leave several cities, including Sands, ”said DPR Prime Minister Alexander Zakharchenko at a conference of his Oplot movement.
    "I can add that the Ukrainian side eventually agreed on the demarcation line drawn up according to our maps. According to their version, we should have ceded a number of settlements to them. However, in the end, our version was adopted," the first vice-president told ITAR-TASS. Prime Minister of the DPR Ravil Khalikov.

    According to him, an agreement was reached two days ago, but it was announced only now.
    According to the agreement on the demarcation line signed by the DPR authorities and Kiev, Mariupol, Kramatorsk and Slavyansk remain under the control of Ukrainian security officials, said Prime Minister of the self-proclaimed republic Alexander Zakharchenko.
    “I still can’t say what we gave for it. But I can say what we did not get - Mariupol, Slavyansk, Kramatorsk. They remain under the control of Kiev, ”Zakharchenko said at a conference of his Oplot movement.
    It is known that the security forces leave the city of Sands - a suburb of Donetsk, from which the Ukrainian army is shelling the city.
    Recall that the militias left Slavyansk in early July. Then the commander of the militia troops Igor Strelkov decided to leave the city so as not to get into the "boiler". At night, the militia broke through the encirclement and moved towards Kramatorsk, but soon left, moving to Gorlovka and Donetsk, the battles for which are still ongoing.

    And THIS APPEARED ONLY THAT ON THE NEWSLETTERS !!!
    1. jjj
      jjj 10 October 2014 18: 46
      +8
      Catch on, legitimize any territory. Start building a state on it. And then grow in areas. So it was with the RSFSR in the 1918 year. The result we know
    2. gav6757
      gav6757 11 October 2014 19: 59
      0
      You can’t be content with little and let more of your mouth tear out! Reformed, regrouped? We need to think further ... you can not stop there, the Ukrainians will gather strength and strike again! We urgently need to look for our Gorchakovs and Sudoplatovs, so that through negotiations confirmed by force, to achieve a result.
  3. alekc73
    alekc73 10 October 2014 18: 21
    +7
    Dreams. So far, only 1/3 of the Lugansk and Donetsk regions. A variant of Transnistria is taking shape.
  4. navara399
    navara399 10 October 2014 18: 23
    +7
    Pancake, such hard-to-reach goals for Russia, how much more blood will be shed, p.
    1. BLACK-SHARK-64
      BLACK-SHARK-64 10 October 2014 18: 42
      +3
      We need Ukraine without Galicia .... Bandera .... Y. And the rest to set their brains from scratch ...
      1. APASUS
        APASUS 10 October 2014 20: 25
        +1
        Quote: BLACK-SHARK-64
        We need Ukraine without Galicia .... Bandera .... Y. And the rest to set their brains from scratch ...

        Something your nickname does not match with Ava, like write a black shark, and on Ava AH-1 Cobra
  5. samoletil18
    samoletil18 10 October 2014 18: 34
    0

    All these scenarios are reduced to the victory of one of the parties and the preservation of the unity of Ukraine or the inability to win with the subsequent inevitable collapse of the state.
    It's obvious. Not for VO article. But from me +, there are interesting points.
  6. -СтрР° РЅРЅРёРє-
    -СтрР° РЅРЅРёРє- 10 October 2014 18: 45
    +4
    As options - they have the right to be, especially with the information available in the public domain. Nothing new for someone who knows how to play checkers. AND, "CHIEF CHESS" hi , I'm sure whose thread will stir up the unexpected - such as Galicia without Galicians. laughing And there will be some (not strong in chess) 16, no one provided for option! With check and mats! smile Only sooner, CHILDREN DIE !!! am
    1. Penzyac
      Penzyac 10 October 2014 21: 45
      0
      Quote: -Wanderer-
      As options - they have the right to be, especially with the information available in the public domain. Nothing new for someone who knows how to play checkers. AND, "CHIEF CHESS" hi , I'm sure whose thread will stir up the unexpected - such as Galicia without Galicians. laughing And there will be some (not strong in chess) 16, no one provided for option! With check and mats! smile Only sooner, CHILDREN DIE !!! am

      Do you really think of making pro-Russian Poland? It wouldn’t be bad, but it’s too fantastic, although in 1945 it practically happened, but at what cost ...
  7. vsoltan
    vsoltan 10 October 2014 18: 46
    +5
    Krut Yuri Apukhtin, oh cool

    Of course, I’m like that, the stray in the meeting of smart people, it seems that the author describes the situation around the section of our Outskirts very primitively ... some obscure versions and conclusions, put up a question ..., for some reason he slipped mattresses, by which in fact, there is only one thing to the Outskirts - it is for us to create a headache ... and they can’t solve the issue of dividing the outskirts ... they will share it: Russia, Hungary, Slovakia, Romania .... maybe more and Austria and Belarus suck ... all the applicants have long been known ... and I think that in this case, small countries sneeze and the opinion piece states .... it was too tasty ...
  8. Strezhevsky
    Strezhevsky 10 October 2014 18: 50
    0
    GDP itself said: as a holistic education, an independent Ukraine suits me ..... moreover, we are already tied up ........
    If they want to the EU, for God's sake, only on our part will measures be taken to protect against free goods
    EU trade zones !!!
    In total, what happened happened, Yanukovych signed everything, but what was needed was not a signature but chaos initially.
    More questions!!?
  9. Egoza
    Egoza 10 October 2014 18: 51
    +14
    Here is such a card!
    1. Abbra
      Abbra 10 October 2014 19: 30
      +9
      Put Crimea back to Russia!
    2. vlad0
      vlad0 10 October 2014 19: 37
      +7
      Crimea - Russia! Nafilya again passed him somewhere ???
    3. APASUS
      APASUS 10 October 2014 20: 34
      +1
      Quote: Egoza
      Here is such a card!

      Oh, I’m not so afraid. The West is too interested in the resources of Ukraine
  10. Strezhevsky
    Strezhevsky 10 October 2014 18: 53
    0
    Quote: Strezhevsky
    GDP itself said: as a holistic education, an independent Ukraine suits me ..... moreover, we are already tied up ........
    If they want to the EU, for God's sake, only on our part will measures be taken to protect against free goods
    EU trade zones !!!
    In total, what happened happened, Yanukovych signed everything, but what was needed was not a signature but chaos initially.
    More questions!!?

    I’m sorry, I’m for my French lunch, the phone understood it that way))))
  11. vvvvv
    vvvvv 10 October 2014 19: 00
    +1
    Scenarios?! ... But specific news. sad
    DNR gives the enemy Slavyansk, Mariupol and Kramatorsk
    10.10.2014 - 16: 54

    The authorities of the Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR) signed an agreement with Kiev on the demarcation line, the Prime Minister of the DPR, Alexander Zakharchenko, said today.

    According to him, reports "RT in Russian", the militias and Kiev agreed that the Ukrainian security forces would leave several cities, including the suburb of Donetsk, Peski. At the same time, RIA Novosti stresses, such iconic cities as Mariupol, Kramatorsk and Slavyansk remain with the Ukrainian invaders.
  12. hyperion121
    hyperion121 10 October 2014 19: 04
    +3
    Yes, you have to share ukruin. That's just our 6th column in every way prevents this.
  13. 11111mail.ru
    11111mail.ru 10 October 2014 19: 04
    +1
    Not me said: "If you want to make God laugh, tell him about your intentions."
  14. ando_bor
    ando_bor 10 October 2014 19: 14
    +4
    What does Russia need from Ukraine? Russia does not need Donbass and Novorossia, it needs all of Ukraine, - One, all to the last millimeter - without Americans. Donbass at least gave Kerry Lavrov, in exchange for the rest of Ukraine, when they bargained for days after the Crimea, Putin did not agree. The federal agreement with Donbas, with the non-aligned status of Ukraine prescribed in it, and its own security forces, for guarantees, are Putin’s goal. With whom in Ukraine it will be possible to solve this, there will be no problems agreeing on the rest.
    So there will be too much Khokhlam-United Ukraine, though federal. In the meantime, the Americans will not leave Ukraine, there will be no Ukraine — nor will there be any — this is what the whole course of events says.
  15. wanderer
    wanderer 10 October 2014 19: 16
    +4
    Nobody will win an unconditional and complete victory, this is understandable to the horse ... I mean the Ukrainian army and the militia ... we must stop the war and divide Ukraine ... east and west will never live together.
    ... I think so with my retirement (not to be confused with the pioneer) mind.
  16. Gecko
    Gecko 10 October 2014 19: 34
    +4
    It did not work out now to return the Russian speakers under their wing.
    We must not stop doing this, even if it takes decades.
    After all, the West was able to tear Ukraine away from us, but did not immediately tear it away,
    here we must act purposefully in this direction,
    and ultimately pick up New Russia.
  17. tank64rus
    tank64rus 10 October 2014 19: 38
    +4
    Let them survive the winter in Kiev, but we'll see.
  18. deleter24
    deleter24 10 October 2014 19: 51
    +1
    The second option, in general, is not bad. Galicia can be donated / sold to Poland.
  19. Evilcat
    Evilcat 10 October 2014 20: 02
    +1
    Damn, unite the Dnipropetrovsk and Odessa regions. This is a complete fall of morals.
  20. sv68
    sv68 10 October 2014 20: 12
    0
    all ukroin should become ours, but who does not want to live peacefully or as part of the Russian Federation, go to hell! We don’t give anyone a meter of land, we don’t want someone else’s but we don’t give our own.
  21. host
    host 10 October 2014 20: 20
    0
    [quote = Abbra] All this is more or less true ...
    All forecasts have their flaws; they do not take into account the will of the inhabitants of Ukraine and the countries around them.
    They will divide, but after "walk the fields" and the complete plundering of the population of the so-called "Novorossiya" ...
  22. Everest2014
    Everest2014 10 October 2014 20: 40
    +2
    I, to the best of my ability, follow events in the world and know what this reminds me of? It is very similar to the beginning of a new world war, well, everything is very similar. Too many conflicts, etc. Such large-scale warriors bring profit to interested countries that will not directly participate in this conflict.
  23. 407391
    407391 10 October 2014 20: 45
    +1
    Everything in this world is relative, and this means the most unrealizable options are possible, among other things already listed, however?!, All around with blood, blood ....
  24. Bor
    Bor 10 October 2014 20: 59
    +1
    It is clear that the war has been paused and a new stage will begin in April-May. From what events will precede it, a further scenario for the development of the conflict will appear. Only the United States will win in any case ...
  25. wanderer987
    wanderer987 10 October 2014 21: 26
    +2
    For the Russian Federation, the most optimal development plan on Rvanin is the line along the Odessa - Kharkov regions + Poltava, with access to Transnistria, but this option is possible only with a victory in the war of resources, and in this situation it is very difficult, the first stage should be Novorossia as part of the DPR and LPR with the creation of a special economic zone on their territory for a certain period. Only by depriving Kiev of an outlet to the sea and industrial resource regions is it possible to achieve positive results, but at the same time, one should not forget about the counteraction of some part of the pro-Kiev population diagnosed with Maydaun of the brain, this treatment will take time! Perhaps with the onset of cold weather, the epidemic will subside, but sharp exacerbations are possible and you need to be prepared for this!
  26. Corsair5912
    Corsair5912 10 October 2014 21: 26
    0
    This is the trick that Russia does not need 2 or 3 warring Ukraine, a bridgehead for NATO and the United States.
    NATO and the United States, on the contrary, are advantageous in fragmenting Ukraine and creating a permanent center of tension, such as Germany, Vietnam, and what Korea remains.
    There are few real solutions to the problem of Ukraine:
    1. Active military assistance to New Russia, its access to historical borders, including Slobozhanshchina and Severshchina, and accession to Russia along the route of Crimea. But the whole West will conquer and bark and bite with teeth. Russia is not ready for this yet, it is first necessary to reliably strengthen the unions of the SCO, BRICS, CU, CSTO, possibly by adopting new states into them, who want enough to withstand any sanctions. Then you need to lose the dollar and upgrade the army.
    2. To help the LPR and DPR to confront the Ukrainian punitive army and defend autonomy within Ukraine, let Ukraine restore the destroyed cities and villages and provide social security for its citizens. Confrontation with the West for a period of a minimum.
    3. A quick massive missile and bomb strike on the army and military facilities of Ukraine, with their complete neutralization, suppression of all centers of resistance, destruction and capture of the initiators of the ATO and Ukraine’s banderization. The offensive of militias with the support of the Russian Air Force, denazification of Ukraine, the trial of war criminals and usurpers of power, the election of the Ukrainian government, without the participation of the Nazis, the prohibition of Nazi and Bandera ideology. Preservation of the sovereignty and unity of federal Ukraine.
    But this is a complete breakdown of relations with the West and confrontation on the brink of war. Russia is not ready for this; first, it is necessary to neutralize Smoked and hawks in the USA government.
  27. IAlex
    IAlex 10 October 2014 21: 32
    +2
    In my opinion, many are raving here, Putin didn’t need Donbas, he took Crimea thinking that the ES-members would humble themselves, but only forgot that slave owners do not forgive slaves, but destroy them. As a result, his phrase “we don’t abandon our own people” told him to the whole world and framed him, after the Crimea stood in the throat of the domestic pro-American aligorkhat, and received a% of GDP by extinguishing the importance of internal problems and oligarchic rampant Donbass, he had to harness himself so as not to get worse after his words about throwing.

    He did not take quick steps when the Nazis didn’t even have an army, and most of Ukraine hesitated to go where it was. What now? The Nazis had an army, NATO supplies and maintains it, with the success of Novorossia, they drove it into a reservation, build a double echelon defense around it with a bunch of equipment, and even with the condition of its almost full shooting ...

    If there are still naive people who believe that everything is in a bundle, and that this is such a plan, now winter will come and it will be shitty for the Maidan that they will run out of equipment, then you are in vain ... It seems that the shooters and the people of Donbass are very cruel violated the plans of the whole oligarchy without losing. They kicked out Strelkov, gave respite for repair of equipment to the maydauns, allowed to get help from the West for the winter, including equipment, to build normal fortifications around Novorossia, and to destroy the entire infrastructure from Novorossia.

    Truncated comrades, this is how they say "fenita la tragedy." The Minsk agreement was the last treaty between our oligorkhat and the western one. As a result, in order to calm the Russian Federation, they will give up for a while a small part of Donbass, completely destroyed and cut off from the rest of the units with relatives, it already does not have the strength to storm the huge Maidaunov group, there is no infrastructure either, the industry is similar. And they will constantly fire at it, pulling closer and closer the fortifications to the border of Novorossiya. And don't worry about gas and everything else, Russian taxpayers will pay for all American plans.


    In general, when the showdown over Crimea began, I had a subconscious thought: what if the plan for all this confrontation was written in Washington and fit into the plan for the disintegration of the Russian Federation, and the GDP just fulfills it?
  28. Darth Revan
    Darth Revan 10 October 2014 22: 00
    0
    Quote: Corsair5912
    3. A quick massive missile and bomb strike on the army and military facilities of Ukraine, with their complete neutralization, suppression of all centers of resistance, destruction and capture of the initiators of the ATO and Ukraine’s banderization. The offensive of militias with the support of the Russian Air Force, denazification of Ukraine, the trial of war criminals and usurpers of power, the election of the Ukrainian government, without the participation of the Nazis, the prohibition of Nazi and Bandera ideology. Preservation of the sovereignty and unity of federal Ukraine.
    But this is a complete breakdown of relations with the West and confrontation on the brink of war. Russia is not ready for this; first, it is necessary to neutralize Smoked and hawks in the USA government.


    Radical, but a viable option. And we go west! They were there in their Brussels "finished sausage" recently took ... ugh, you already felt sick from the sight of this face! belay And they still dare to teach us something? Yes, they have legs in their mouth! am
  29. Non-war
    Non-war 10 October 2014 22: 04
    +2
    The scenario is possible with a catastrophic defeat of Kiev and the United States from the militia, a successful militia attack on Kiev, the expulsion of the ruling elite from Kiev and the establishment of a new government in the torn territories. - I don’t want to attack anyone with sore blisters, but the militias don’t have the strength to take the Donetsk airport under their control, and then immediately Kiev is on a silver platter.
  30. Aleksey_K
    Aleksey_K 10 October 2014 23: 49
    +2
    Whatever the author of the article would suggest scenarios, the people of Ukrina will have to go through the crucible of cleansing from fascism, Nazism and nationalism. It is hard to imagine that this task, instead of the people of Ukraine, will be done by Russia. Ukrainians will have to fight for the purification of their nation from evil. And the whole country will burn in the cleansing flame, a lot of people will die, but those who pull Ukraine to Hell will perish. And only in this way can Peace and Concord be achieved in the country when all nations love and respect each other. In the meantime, the inhabitants of Ukraine, the descendants of ancient Kievan Rus, you have to fight for it with weapons in your hands. And, May Light conquer, not Darkness! And the descendants will be grateful to you, and will remember All who fought evil spirits for a Bright Future!
    1. studentmati
      studentmati 11 October 2014 00: 06
      -1
      Quote: Алексей_К
      but the people of Ukraine will have to go through the crucible of cleansing from fascism, Nazism and nationalism.


      What is it like? Today's lustration? Or the NKVD methods?

      Quote: Алексей_К
      but those who pull Ukraine to Hell will disappear


      In this scenario, the Americans will not perish, Ukraine will perish, followed by Russia, which is what they are seeking.
  31. HAGEN
    HAGEN 10 October 2014 23: 50
    0
    I would really like for New Russia to take place! But according to recent events, it seems to me that nothing further will come of it! Odessa and Kharkov cowardly hid in a corner, suffering beatings and humiliation. The DPR and LPR agreed today de facto with the current borders. I think dill will soon strengthen the defense so that any offensive will be suicide. I would not like to be right :(
  32. Alfizik
    Alfizik 11 October 2014 01: 13
    0
    No, the fight is not "in full swing" and the US has no advantage. On the contrary, the United States is in a disastrously difficult position. There is only one way out: wait. If the junta does not decide itself soon, much, almost everything will be decided outside of Ukraine. And he will decide ... how to put it more correctly ... around America. In the tonality of her catastrophic situation.
  33. Evgeniy.
    Evgeniy. 11 October 2014 07: 23
    0
    Years of war and victories show only complete eradication allows victory. The option to win, take the capital and then move away leads to a relapse. An example of the same Germany took Berlin 3 times, and things are still there, they are imparting to Russia
  34. Viktor Kudinov
    Viktor Kudinov 11 October 2014 07: 55
    +2
    repeat You cannot share the skin of an unkilled bear. I gave the author a plus - for work: he threw in food for thought. However, I note that in the end, a completely different scenario may work. All proposed scenarios are based on the interests of the EU, the US, Russia and the Ukrainian elites. The interests of the Ukrainian people have not been overlooked, and the author believes that the people of Ukraine are not a decisive factor in the division or preservation of the territorial integrity of Ukraine. But the Ukrainian people, by and large, spit on the interests of the above parties. He wants to realize his interests. This very moment was used by the junta for coming to power. She gave promises to the people, and the people believed her. Now it is clear that promises are not being fulfilled and cannot be fulfilled, because the government does not work in the interests of the people, but in the interests of certain elites. As a result, the people are artificially excluded from the solution of the issue - they are demoralized by repression and the lack of force that would act on their side. In this respect, Donbass was better fortunate, where the process of "crystallization" of the militia and the new government, which played the role of "self-defense of the people's interests", began. However, there is no ideological unity, there is anarchy, there is a heterogeneous pressure from external forces ... It seems to me that the coming winter may become a determining factor in the refraction of the self-consciousness of the Ukrainian people. He may develop an understanding that he needs to look for his own inner alloy of interests, and not indulge external forces that are tearing Ukraine apart. I believe that on a similar basis in the future, it is possible to re-unite Ukraine and Russia, if in the latter the people's interests (and not the interests of a handful of oligarchs) also become a priority in the internal policy of the state. To summarize - this option is called the people's revolution.From petty remarks to the author, I will tell you that one of the interests of the EU, which can be added to the article, is to obtain cheap and skilled labor from Ukraine, which could slightly weaken Europe’s dependence on the influx of labor from Africa and West Asia. hi
    1. atamankko
      atamankko 11 October 2014 10: 48
      0
      Well done, I completely agree.
  35. Ivan 63
    Ivan 63 11 October 2014 10: 42
    0
    Yes, unfortunately, or maybe not, no one will say now what awaits us tomorrow. Only one thing can be said for sure - the blow inflicted on Russia by the hunchback and drunkard turned out to be stronger than Hitler's. And this, as well as the authors of this betrayal, must be remembered - Always, and to develop not only tactics, but also a strategy for such "perestroika". I think that the majority of the population of Ukraine, at the moment we have lost, despite the defeat from the militias, the inhabitants of the square see the enemy in us, but not in the west and its henchmen, and this is very bad. Most likely, a little later, another "walk the field" and Bandera will unfold in the dill, and a big confusion will begin. And here the West can finally win, because as history shows, in brainwashing and provocations, we cannot be on an equal footing with them, which is at least a decision to allocate separate shelves and signs for our products. We will wait for "Winter is Close" - we will have to, maybe not very voluntarily, but apologize for Russophobia and teach children using new Russian textbooks, and let Galicia acquire Pshek ones.
  36. divangeneral
    divangeneral 11 October 2014 12: 18
    0
    Quote: captain
    Scenarios for the future division of Ukraine


    by and large, it’s not so important what the people of Kiev think there
    their love is not needed
    their behavior can be controlled by owning Novorossia and managing the receipt of taxes from its enterprises
  37. Hitrovan07
    Hitrovan07 11 October 2014 18: 22
    0
    Article minus.
    All this has already been "chewed" dozens of times.
    Let's just remember the border of the Russian Empire.
    And after the Second World War they successfully fought with bandits in the territory of both Ukraine and the Baltic states.
    So it's time to return the territory of the mother country.
  38. tag17
    tag17 11 October 2014 22: 54
    0
    The options are weak. Do not treat the symptoms. It is necessary to treat the disease. Fashington must be destroyed. Humanity will either change the development model or disappear.