USA and Eurasia
The Ukrainian crisis and the annexation of Crimea to Russia became the turning point of the modern stories. Annoyed by their failures in the Ukrainian direction, the United States is trying in every way to destabilize the situation on the southern borders of Russia and the CIS countries. The main goal is to defocus the attention of the Russian Federation, creating new problems for it along the already unstable and military-strategic southern frontiers.
At the end of the summer, media attention, in addition to the civil war in Ukraine, was focused on a sharp aggravation of Armenian-Azerbaijani relations. The threat of the re-opening of the Karabakh conflict and its escalation into a full-scale war was lifted after the meeting of V. Putin, I. Aliyev and S. Sargsyan held on 10 in August in Sochi. Much less attention was paid to the situation in Central (Central) Asia, where there are several points of tension at once that can, under certain conditions, create a completely “worthy alternative” to the war between Armenia and Azerbaijan.
During the six months past since the annexation of Crimea to Russia, the impression was that the West represented by the USA, Great Britain and the EU was gradually probing possible hotbeds of conflicts, assessing the degree of tension, prospects and consequences of destabilizing the military and political situation. Central Asia provides a rich choice in this regard. For a long time, there has been a whole series of interstate and inter-ethnic conflicts that are closely intertwined with each other, which, under certain circumstances, may well turn into a full-scale military conflict.
The bulk of contradictions is concentrated in the “conflict triangle” Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan-Tajikistan.
The tense demographic situation, as well as border and ethnic problems, create in this area a knot of contradictions that threaten to grow into open clashes.
During the current year, several conflicts have intensified in the region at once, many of which have their roots in the recent past. Thus, in May, the situation in the Gorno-Badakhshan Autonomous Region (GBAO) of Tajikistan, which had not recovered completely from the consequences of the 1990 civil war, became complicated. 21 in May 2014 The staff of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of the administrative center of the region of Khorog opened fire on a car with three natives of GBAO who were suspected of carrying drugs. One of them was killed, two were injured. In response, 200 to 300 locals burned down the buildings of the city department of the Ministry of Internal Affairs, the prosecutor's office, the court and three police cars. In a shootout, he was wounded and later one of the policemen died. In total, 21 was killed and 3 people were injured during 4 events in May. Several rioters were arrested.
On May 22, a protest rally began in Khorog, the participants of which demanded the creation of a commission to investigate the riots, convene extraordinary sessions of the regional and city councils and dismiss all senior officials of the regional administration and ATC. Further events developed along the path of escalation. On the night of May 24, an armed attack was committed on the headquarters of the State Committee for National Security in Khorog, as a result of which one of the attackers was killed and two were seriously injured. The situation in the region remained tense until 25 in May, when the authorities signed a protocol with the protesters, partially normalizing the situation. For its settlement was created a commission of representatives of the authorities and the local population.
The 21 events of May in Khorog became the biggest riots since July, 2012, when, according to various assessments, from 42 to 200 people died during battles between security forces and local armed forces. Recently, Gorno-Badakhshan has clearly aroused the interest of the EU, which sent several delegations to the republic. For example, on May X, NUMX was visited by the head of the parliamentary group on Tajikistan, a member of the House of Lords of Great Britain Baroness Vivien Stern, who planned to meet with the authorities and the local population of GBAO. But due to the unrest in Khorog, the visit was canceled. 22-10 in May, Khorog was visited by a group of European diplomats, including Ishvan Nitrai, Head of Policy and Information at the EU Delegation in Dushanbe, who met with former field commander GBAO Makhmadbokir Makhmadbokirov.
The diplomatic activity of the West in GBAO has caused a clear concern of Tajik politicians and journalists. Thus, the former head of the Security Council, Chairman of the Committee on Security and Defense of the Parliament Amirkul Azimov on May 21 expressed concern that the goal of the visit of the European delegation to Khorog could be to destabilize the situation in GBAO.
The Tajik analyst Parviz Mullojanov noted that two years ago the special services of a foreign power unsuccessfully offered Badakhshan field commanders 7 million dollars. for destabilization of the situation in the region.
The situation in Gorno-Badakhshan is complicated by its ethnic, religious and economic specifics. The region is inhabited by the Pamirs - a group of small in number of peoples speaking Eastern Iranian languages. Unlike most of the population of Tajikistan, practicing Sunnism, they are Ismaili (one of the Shiite versions of Islam) and do not consider themselves Tajiks. The fund of the spiritual leader of the Ismailis of the whole world, Aga Khan, which has great financial resources and has been strongly influenced by Britain for a long time, has a strong influence on the situation in the region. At the same time, a difficult socio-economic situation has developed in the region. The population of GBAO actually survives due to labor migration, drug trafficking and smuggling from neighboring Afghanistan, in connection with which the situation in the region is highly criminalized. All this makes Badakhshan an extremely convenient tool in the hands of the West for creating military-political tensions in this part of Eurasia.
The Tajik-Kyrgyz border has become a new focus of tension this year. 11 January 2014 on the border of the Batken Oblast of Kyrgyzstan and the Isfara district of Tajikistan between the border guards of the two countries, a conflict occurred because of the construction of a highway on uncoordinated parts of the terrain. A verbal dispute escalated into an exchange of fire using machine guns and mortars, during which 8 military personnel, including 2 Tajik, were injured. According to Deutsche Welle, the conflict almost turned into a war between the two countries. On July 10, in the locality of Tamdyk, Batken Oblast of Kyrgyzstan, a firing took place again between the border guards, as a result of which, according to Radio Ozodi, one of the residents of the Tajik enclave Vorukh was injured by 7. On August 25, a third firefight occurred at the border, with the Tajik side again using mortars. According to the Tajik press, five residents of the Kalach village were injured of varying degrees, one of whom died later.
In total, in less than a year, three skirmishes occurred on the Tajik-Kyrgyz border, using not only small rifle weapons, but also mortar. Several dozen people were injured and at least one killed. Of course, the border between Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan had never been an oasis of calm before. More than half of its length today is not delimited. The enclaves became the foci of constant tension, the largest of which is the Tajik Vorukh, located inside the Batken region of Kyrgyzstan. Conflicts arose here in the Soviet period, but none of them turned into gunfights with the use of heavy weapons. Chronologically, the aggravation of the border conflict coincides with the onset of the hot phase of the Ukrainian crisis, although the first skirmish happened even before the February coup and the Crimean referendum, and the other two after them. It is noteworthy that the United States in the framework of assistance to the Central Asian republics actively implemented border projects that included the construction and equipment of various border facilities, outposts and checkpoints. The contacts established during the implementation of these projects may well be one of the tools for destabilizing the situation. The German expert on Central Asia, Beate Eschment, in particular, draws attention to the “unusual harshness of statements and actions by Dushanbe”, which has actively cooperated with Americans in recent years.
Another destabilization tool is the re-entry of a long-standing conflict between Uzbekistan and Tajikistan over the construction of the Rogun hydropower plant.
Tashkent categorically objected to the construction of the station, believing that it could leave it without water, and even threatened Dushanbe with war. As a result of the work at the hydroelectric power station, it was decided to stop until the technical expertise of the project was completed. However, in June, the World Bank unexpectedly approved the construction of a hydropower plant. Tashkent, for its part, considered the World Bank report not to be objective and not conforming to generally accepted standards. According to Rustam Azimov, First Deputy Prime Minister, Minister of Finance of Uzbekistan, the results of the examination are “insufficient to form qualified conclusions for the Rogun hydropower plant construction project.” The conflict has not yet outgrown into the hot phase, but the base for its aggravation has already been created.
The internal political situation in Kyrgyzstan, where the US is forming a new opposition to President A. Atambayev, who has embarked on joining the Customs Union, remains extremely difficult. In April, the new opposition movement Patriotic Forces of Kyrgyzstan organized protests in all major cities of the country, which, however, had no serious consequences. The opposition is trying in every way to complicate the development of the Kumtor gold mine, which provides more than 1 / 4 industrial output and 1 / 2 of Kyrgyzstan’s exports. In the fight against the current government, the traditional method of political struggle, such as blocking roads, is also used. Thus, on May 27, supporters of opposition MP A. Keldibekov blocked the strategically important Osh-Irkeshtam road connecting the south of Kyrgyzstan with the Fergana Valley and China. According to June 5, Kyrgyz customs have already received less 1,1 million due to this. The republic, which survived after the collapse of the USSR two state coups and the Osh massacre of 2010, faces yet another exacerbation of economic problems with a new spiral of social and political instability.
Several hundred Central Asian citizens are participating in a Syrian armed conflict that has recently spilled over into Iraq. On September 11, the Kazakh service of Azattyk Radio (Freedom) reported that 90 citizens of Kyrgyzstan are fighting on the side of the Syrian militants, and 5 citizens of Kyrgyzstan have already died.
In addition, Syria is fighting against the troops of Bashar Assad from 700 to 3000 citizens of Uzbekistan, around 400 - Turkmenistan, 200 - Tajikistan and 150 - Kazakhstan.
Upon returning home, war veterans in the Middle East can pose a serious threat to local political regimes whose security forces, with the exception of Tajikistan, have not taken part in actual hostilities. The experience of transferring militants from the Middle East to the CIS countries from Western intelligence services already exists. In the course of the civil war in Ukraine, the militia of New Russia repeatedly reported that mercenaries from Syria were participating in the battles against them.
The prospects for destabilizing the military-political situation in Central Asia largely depend on the actions of Russia, which has great potential here. Three of the five countries of the region (Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan) are members of the CSTO, which allows the mechanism of the Collective Rapid Reaction Force (CRRF) to be activated. With Uzbekistan, Russia has an agreement on allied relations 2005, which provides for the provision of military-technical assistance in the event of an external threat. Measures of a military nature are also being taken, mainly related to the upcoming withdrawal of the majority of US troops from Afghanistan. 201-th Russian military base in Tajikistan from the brigade deployed in the division. Scenarios of numerous military exercises held recently both in Central Asia and in the border regions of Russia indicate that the Russian military are preparing to fight irregular armed groups that have penetrated the territory of the region.
At the same time, in the arsenal of the Russian Federation and the CSTO countries not enough attention is paid to the means of “soft power” and the information policy, which forms the attitude of the population to certain events.
It was their use that allowed the US and the EU to bring the crisis in Ukraine to the stage of a coup and a civil war, putting the state under its complete control. In Central Asia, with its deep social and economic problems, as well as national and religious controversies, the scale of this war may turn out to be much more significant.
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