Military Review

Burden of victory

54
Peace in Ukraine creates more problems than war

The article “But Donbass Happened” dealt with the internal genesis of the current Ukrainian catastrophe. Moreover, when a large, geopolitically significant country destabilizes, external forces cannot but take advantage of it. It has always been, is and will be. When now the West and Russia vehemently accuse each other of interfering in the internal affairs of Ukraine, this is the height of hypocrisy on both sides. However, such hypocrisy, unfortunately, holds diplomacy.

In the spring of this year, Russia's Economic Development Minister Alexei Ulyukayev said that during the post-Soviet period, Russia directly and indirectly subsidized the economy of Ukraine for a total of about 200 billions of dollars. Ulyukaev is a radical liberal, former deputy to the late Egor Gaidar for his institution and party. Therefore, he is unlikely to exaggerate the figure. Rather downplayed.

“Russia fought on the side of Transnistria openly, without embarrassment, but the West was not outraged and did not even stutter about sanctions against us”
The actions of our government have never been burdened by the presence of at least some strategy in whatever field. This fully applies to relations with Ukraine. The whole “strategy” was reduced to three absurd philistine cliches: “We all know about Ukraine”, “Ukraine is a brotherly country”, “Ukraine is not going anywhere from us”. Under this went the above-mentioned subsidies.

In response, Ukraine did not even imitate the "fraternity", and completely regardless of who was in power in Kiev. All presidents and political parties, including those that for some reason were considered pro-Russian in our country, conducted a course to the maximum distance from Moscow in foreign and domestic politics. Official propaganda and the education system were aimed at this. However, we continued to be worn with the above-mentioned stamps and that absolutely “beyond good and evil” - they believed that Ukraine could and even should become a member of the Eurasian Union. When the “pro-Russian” Yanukovych confidently moved to the EU, Moscow experienced an obvious shock, and then tried to prevent it. With a well-known result.

Justice "trampling"

Many further actions of Russia are explained by the implementation of the HSP, that is, the “Putin’s cunning plan.” Probably, this plan is indeed very cunning, it’s a pity that Putin himself knows nothing about him. In fact, we have been and is a typical set of situational reactions to external stimuli for our foreign policy.

At the beginning of 2014, the Russian president persuaded his Ukrainian counterpart to sluggish surrender, that is, to sign the well-known February agreements. In this case, the actions of Moscow were purely peacekeeping, not bringing it any real benefit. Nevertheless, the day after the signing of Yanukovych was overthrown. Putin decided that he was brazenly "thrown." After that, the “Crimean campaign” happened, which became a direct response to the “kidalovo”.

The indignation of Ukraine, the West and our own liberal public about how we, by our “annexation” vilely offended the “fraternal country” and “trampled on international law”, is quite ridiculous. As it was said above, independent Ukraine was not for us even friendly for a second. And on the Independence, the anti-Russian issue has become central in general, pushing even the association with the EU into the background. In this regard, we are absolutely not obliged to observe the interests of Ukraine. In general, they must abide by the leadership of the country and the people, no one else. Others have their own interests. The norms of universal morality never extended to international relations. It is sad but true. As for the “norms of international law”, this sad theme will be discussed in the next article on the role of the West. Here, in brief, it should be said that this right now exists only in the imagination of moralists. And hardly anyone will explain why the Crimean referendum on independence in March 2014 was more illegal than the events in Kiev a month earlier or the Ukrainian referendum on independence from the USSR in December 1991. It is also not clear why the Crimeans, who did not feel that Ukraine is their country, and who for the first time acquired the right to decide their own fate, should have considered an involuntary decision of the Kremlin communist tyrant independent of 60 years ago. Here, on the peninsula (unlike Donbass), immediately after the overthrow of Yanukovych, a real grassroots popular movement emerged, aimed at secession from Ukraine, regardless of what Russia would do. In addition, the accusers of the reunion "did not notice" a wide advertising campaign of the Pravoseks, triumphant at that moment, to the Crimea, where they had to be supported by the militants of the Majlis (not to be confused with the Crimean Tatars as a whole). This is generally the property of many people to see only what is convenient for them.

Perhaps, Ukraine’s loss of Crimea has become the most equitable payment of its people and power for the 22-summer destruction of its own state and for the irrational hatred inflicted on Russia.

Why Donbass is not the Crimea

After the bloodless Crimean triumph, the Kremlin's security forces exerted the strongest pressure on Putin to repeat this scenario in the east and south of Ukraine, along the entire arc from Kharkov to Odessa. At the same time, the separatist plan in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions had already begun to be implemented as an internal Ukrainian oligarchic disassembly (this was discussed in the article “But Donbass Happened”). And Moscow could well use it. However, as events developed, the difference between the situations in the Crimea and the Donbas from the point of view of Russia's actions became apparent.

1. The annexation of Crimea to Ukraine in January 1954 was carried out in violation of even very conditional Soviet laws. This created a certain legal basis for the return of the Russian peninsula. There is no such prerequisite for other regions of the neighboring state. Of course, the borders of the Ukrainian SSR were drawn by the Soviet authorities completely artificially, without taking into account ethnic and historical aspects. However, it is no longer possible to legally use this fact.

2. The loyalty of the Crimean population to Russia exceeds 80 percent (and even 90%, most likely). At the same time, in the most pro-Moscow Donetsk and Luhansk regions, the overwhelming majority of the population just passively waits for anyone to win, or leave for a new homeland “on their own”. In other regions of the south and east, the situation is less favorable for Russia. Thus, if in the face of Crimea, the Kremlin acquired almost the most loyal subject of the Russian Federation, then even joining the Donbass (the whole of Donetsk and Lugansk regions), it will receive several hundred thousand actively hostile citizens.

3. Even the integration of the Crimea, which is small in terms of population and territory, completely loyal, creates a lot of legal, financial, technical and other problems for Russia. The accession of Donbass, not to mention other regions of the south and east, will complicate the situation so much that there will be a real threat to the internal stability of the Russian Federation as a whole, not only socio-economic, but also political.

4. The referendum in Crimea did not comply with the legislation of Ukraine. Nevertheless, it was conducted by the legitimate authorities of the peninsula and the existing election commissions that have lists of voters, in full compliance with the procedure and debriefing. In the course of the referendum, the opinion of the inhabitants of Crimea on the questions asked was indeed revealed. In the Donetsk and Lugansk regions, the “people's authorities”, which organized a plebiscite on the independence of the DPR and the LPR, were not legitimate. They did not control all the settlements in their regions and could not organize a voting procedure everywhere, having problems with voter lists, premises and necessary equipment. Due to such problems, it is impossible to recognize the results of the referendum, despite the high turnout in some cities, which actually took place on May 11.

In addition to all these circumstances, the Kremlin apparently realized that for the West it would even be beneficial to join the east and south of Ukraine to Russia. In this case, as shown above, it would have received a tremendous economic and political burden, which would at least plunge the country into a deep economic depression, and as a maximum would cause a serious internal destabilization with an unpredictable outcome. Moreover, in this case, real economic sanctions would be imposed against Russia, which would further worsen its position. On the other hand, it is much easier for the West to finance what would remain in this case from Ukraine, since the population of this part of it is only about 20 million people (and not 43 million, as in the present territory without Crimea), while almost all of them are uniquely pro-Western.

However, the Kremlin could not let the situation in the Donbas take its course. As a result of the propaganda campaign in the self-proclaimed republics, a stream of volunteers moved to fight for the “Russian world” and / or against the “Fascist Bandera”. Other Russians who did not go to war, but listening to the television version of events, began to ask a natural question: why did they save the Crimea, although no one died there, and in the Donbass blood flows like water, but we don’t save it? That is, the internal Ukrainian oligarchic disassembly proved to be the most important domestic political factor on this side of the border. Moreover, there are signs that some militia leaders, who came from Russia, may later be promoted to alternative political leaders already in their homeland. Donbass has become for Moscow a typical “suitcase without a handle,” which is very hard to carry, but also completely impossible to quit. Although this is not our suitcase. And there was no good way out of the situation. It turned out that both the triumphant victory and the complete defeat of the DPR and the LPR turned out to be very bad options for Moscow.

Looking for leverage

For several months, Moscow tried to take at least partial control of the Donbass "guljaipole", maneuvering between the creatures of the oligarch Akhmetov (who, in turn, was not less actively choosing between the militias and Kiev) and the volunteer leaders. Certain results were achieved because the principle “There would be no happiness, but misfortune would help.” As stated in the article “But Donbass Happened,” the Ukrainian army in July-August began to achieve real success, acting by the unpretentious Soviet method of overwhelming the enemy with their corpses. With overwhelming superiority in people and technology, such an approach guaranteed victory. The territory of the DNR and the LC was rapidly reduced and lost its internal coherence. In these circumstances, Russia had to use what is ironically called “voentorg” on the Internet.

At the time of this writing, in the armed groups of the DPR and LPR for the entire period of the civil war, the presence (without losses) was recorded 83 tanks, 83 BMP and BMD, 68 armored personnel carriers, 33 self-propelled guns, 31 towed guns, 11 MLRS, 4 air defense systems (3 Strela-10, 1 Osa). Of this amount captured from the Ukrainian Armed Forces: 23 tanks, 56 BMP and BMD, 26 armored personnel carriers, 19 self-propelled guns, 17 towed guns, 2 MLRS. Where the rest came from is an interesting question. There are actually only two answers to it: a corrupt purchase from the Ukrainian military and receipt from Russia. These options do not exclude each other, but complement. Obviously, at the beginning of the existence of the DPR and LPR, the first option acted (when it was a dismantling of the Ukrainian oligarchs, with their money weapon and was acquired domestically), and in August earned a second one, which they called the “voentorg”. Proof of this, in particular, is that the militia recorded the presence of several units of T-72B3 and BTR-82А, which are simply not in the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

To a certain extent, Moscow was untied by official Kiev propaganda. Lies about the "Russian aggression" has reached such a surrealistic scale that now, with all the desire, Russia will not be able to do even half of what has already been attributed to it.

Here one cannot but recall one episode of recent history. In 1991, a separatist movement arose in Moldova in Transnistria, which is typologically very similar to the current Donbass. It was not the oligarchs who created it, but the then party nomenclature. Frankly, it had much more support from the population than the current militia - the inhabitants of Donbass. The 14 Army deployed in Transnistria, which President Yeltsin transferred to Russian jurisdiction in April 1992, began to openly transfer arms and equipment to the separatists. And at the end of May, during the most intense battles for the city of Bender, the 14-I army took the side of the Transnistrian guards. Nevertheless, Yeltsin and vice-president of Rutskoi (at that moment they had not yet quarreled) decided that she was not actively fighting. Therefore, General Swan, a man of the highest degree, was sent to Tiraspol as the new commander. On the night of 2 on 3 of July, on his orders, the artillery of the 14 Army dealt a crushing, moreover, preventive strike on Moldovan positions. After that, Chisinau essentially capitulated, and Transnistria became an unrecognized state. And for some reason neither our liberal community, nor the West (except, of course, Romania) were completely indignant. And no one imposed sanctions against us, did not even stutter about them. Although Russia fought absolutely openly, not embarrassed. I wonder why everything has changed so much since then.

Now Moscow has finally gained leverage over both sides of the Ukrainian conflict. She demonstrated to Kiev that he could not achieve a military victory without the Kremlin’s “permission”. Which, in addition, has such a powerful lever of pressure on Poroshenko, as its assets in Russia (having been elected president, he did not cease to be an oligarch, although he promised to sell everything, and Ukrainian legislation requires it). Militias can be very effectively influenced by the "voentorg". True, at the end of August - beginning of September they seized so many Ukrainian equipment that in the near future they simply didn’t need any else. But in case of resumption of full-scale battles, it will be very quickly knocked out.

With the help of these levers, the Kremlin will seek from both sides a complete and final cease-fire. The war in the Donbass creates Moscow too many economic and political problems both within the country and abroad. In particular, despite its own propaganda, the Kremlin is not interested in a serious quarrel with the West, too many personal interests of our “elite” are associated with it.

The problem, however, is that no one needs peace in Ukraine yet. To Kiev, the war is beneficial from all points of view, and its continuation “to the bitter end” still requires the majority of the population. Dissatisfied with the world and the militia, which the cease-fire found at the peak of military success. The parties did not reach the point where it is really impossible to fight. That is why Russian peacekeeping efforts are not guaranteed success at all.

At the same time, it is necessary to understand that the DPR and the LPR have no prospects under any variant of the development of events on the front - even if the truce takes a long and stable character or if the Ukrainian Armed Forces conduct the next general offensive, but again they will not be able to cover the militia with corpses. Russia not only will not join the Donbass, but also does not have the opportunity to provide him with truly serious economic assistance. Because of this, the standard of living in the unrecognized republics will most likely be lower than in the rest of Ukraine, which will cause the most active population to flee. Its smaller part will rush to other regions of Ukraine, a large part to Russia, but almost all is irrevocable. What will further undermine the economy of Donbass and increase the outflow of the population, that is, the process will take on a self-sustaining character. In addition, those who make up the most efficient part of his army, the Russian volunteers, will leave the non-belligerent, but freezing and poor Donbass. It will not be possible to keep them precisely because they are volunteers, not soldiers, not mercenaries. Since the DPR and LPR will have neither the economy nor the army, Moscow’s desire to remove this weight from its neck and hang around Kiev’s neck can become irresistible. Kiev for purely political reasons will not be able to abandon the weight.
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  1. USSR 1971
    USSR 1971 24 September 2014 14: 18
    +13
    Yes, where does the accession of Donbass to Russia? It is necessary to stop the killing of civilians and throw out the Nazis. And how and with whom to live and make friends the people of New Russia should decide for themselves. But after all the abomination that the Kiev authorities with Ukraine had upheld there, they were no longer on their way.
    And what kind of weight will Kiev hang on itself? They can’t turn on hot water and will they restore the Donbass? The author got a little excited about this.
    1. kodxnumx
      kodxnumx 24 September 2014 16: 09
      +3
      What a provocation and not an article!
      1. The comment was deleted.
      2. Past_ Crocodile
        Past_ Crocodile 24 September 2014 17: 16
        +5
        No, this is just reasonable skepticism - "devil's advocate". You just need to assess the upcoming difficulties, both with the economy and with the disloyalty of the population and the West. But you can't leave Donbass. And what will Russia look like in their eyes, which at first gave hope and then, after so many terrible sacrifices, will give them over to the Western ghouls?
        1. Oldwiser
          Oldwiser 24 September 2014 17: 30
          +4
          will look disgustingly - like the last traitor
      3. Giant thought
        Giant thought 24 September 2014 17: 18
        +1
        Apocalypse of Donbass according to Khramchikhin.
        1. Oldwiser
          Oldwiser 24 September 2014 17: 30
          0
          funeral
      4. The comment was deleted.
      5. The comment was deleted.
      6. olegglin
        olegglin 24 September 2014 17: 30
        +1
        "
        The Institute for Political and Military Analysis (IPVA) is an independent, non-governmental organization formed in 1996 ....
        ... The staff of the Institute participated in the preparation of election campaigns for the legislative and executive authorities in a number of districts of the Central, Far Eastern, Siberian federal districts, in the development of program and statutory documents for political parties: “Democratic choice of Russia”, “Our home is Russia”, “ Union of Right Forces ”,” Unity ”; participated in the reconstruction in the Russian Federation of the system of "People's houses", which existed until 1917 .... "
        "Khramchikhin Alexander Anatolyevich (born June 3, 1967) is a Russian political scientist.
        ... Adheres to extremely pessimistic views on the prospects of the Russian army and military-industrial complex ....
        ... Alexander Khramchikhin is one of the supporters of the theory of a disarming US strike on Russian carriers of nuclear weapons, and gives an original explanation for this strike - to give Russia a reason to invite NATO troops to its territory to protect Russia from China ... ".

        Now it has become clear how to relate to this?
      7. Tektor
        Tektor 24 September 2014 22: 51
        +2
        I agree, a provocation, because if we do not annex Novorossiya now, then we can get a completely "non-loyal population" and run into new sanctions. The chance should be used as soon as it is presented, by including everything up to Transnistria. And Lavrov will find legal squiggles: remember "Lenin's gifts to Ukraine", for example.
    2. Past_ Crocodile
      Past_ Crocodile 24 September 2014 16: 53
      +3
      I also initially thought that the West would like to ravage Donbass and “force” Russia to annex it and restore it. But my conclusions are different - "THE RUSSIANS DO NOT DROP THEIR." I don't think we are in danger of hunger in this case. And the diet is sometimes useful. We drove a Zhiguli before and watched Record TV, we will survive.
  2. RUSS
    RUSS 24 September 2014 14: 25
    +8
    Contradictory article, a lot of pessimism.
    1. Owl27
      Owl27 24 September 2014 14: 29
      +4
      Gloomy article. It is written that all victories are turned into defeats ...
    2. The comment was deleted.
      1. zennon
        zennon 24 September 2014 14: 44
        +1
        Quote: mazhnikof.Niko
        If Ukraine holds the gene. offensive (next), then even then, let him wait for the NEW RUSSIAN ARMY in Kuev. AND ONLY in Kuev .....

        And who will come and meet:
      2. The comment was deleted.
    3. mazhnikof.Niko
      mazhnikof.Niko 24 September 2014 14: 42
      0
      Quote: RUSS
      At the same time, it is necessary to understand that the DPR and LPR have no prospects under any scenario for the development of events at the front - even if the cease-fire takes a long and stable character, or if the Armed Forces carry out another general offensive, but again cannot fill up the militias with corpses.


      If Ukraine holds the gene. offensive (next), then even then, let him wait for the NEW RUSSIAN ARMY in Kuev. AND ONLY in Kuev .....
      1. SRC P-15
        SRC P-15 24 September 2014 15: 01
        +1
        Moreover, there were signs that some militia leaders who came from Russia could subsequently advance to alternative political leaders already at home.

        And this about whom, or what?
        1. Oldwiser
          Oldwiser 24 September 2014 17: 50
          0
          Yes, all the Kurginian assaults on our dear Igor Ivanovich, because Borodai and Pushilin only come forward on the "political p. Leaders" and can
      2. KazakPatrol
        KazakPatrol 24 September 2014 15: 58
        +1
        I have a huge request to my colleagues on the site (of all ranks and regalia), do not be like the public with the Censor and spoil the historical names of cities. Our grandfathers and great-grandfathers laid many heads, both their own and others', so that they were called exactly as laid down by Russian history, especially Kiev is a hero city, our veterans have medals "For the liberation of Kiev".
        But all the stripes of those who now rule there and have brought their country to such a country, I’ll also ask you, there is no need to stand on ceremony in words, because these are the villains and traders who sold their country and betrayed the people.
        Thank you in advance!
      3. nvv
        nvv 24 September 2014 19: 30
        0
        Quote: mazhnikof.Niko
        Quote: RUSS
        At the same time, it is necessary to understand that the DPR and LPR have no prospects under any scenario for the development of events at the front - even if the cease-fire takes a long and stable character, or if the Armed Forces carry out another general offensive, but again cannot fill up the militias with corpses.


        If Ukraine holds the gene. offensive (next), then even then, let him wait for the NEW RUSSIAN ARMY in Kuev. AND ONLY in Kuev .....

        Do you know why the minus slammed you, with all the proletarian hatred? Do not trash Hero City with obscene words.
        1. mazhnikof.Niko
          mazhnikof.Niko 24 September 2014 19: 59
          +2
          Quote: nvv
          Do you know why the minus slammed you, with all the proletarian hatred? Do not trash Hero City with obscene words.


          Now I know, but I will survive the hatred of such a proletariat.
    4. KazakPatrol
      KazakPatrol 24 September 2014 15: 47
      +3
      Probably a different title was needed for this article: "Why will Novorossia be" merged "? And who is to blame is already known!" I read the article, the mood is below the plinth, in short there is no way out !? Although it seems to me that the militia will return the territories of their regions, and the people want peace and will rebuild their lives in a new way, with our help or not, what's the difference!
      1. aleks700
        aleks700 24 September 2014 17: 30
        0
        I read the article, the mood is lower than the plinth, in short there is no way out !?

        Exit in independent New Russia. Of course you will have to work hard, but there’s nowhere to go. Restore everything as after the Second World War.
  3. Mountain shooter
    Mountain shooter 24 September 2014 14: 27
    +4
    The author is the fifth column. The article is ideologically against Russia and its foreign policy.
    1. RUSS
      RUSS 24 September 2014 14: 32
      +3
      Quote: Mountain Shooter
      The author is the fifth column. The article is ideologically against Russia and its foreign policy.


      The author could openly write - "the struggle of the people is useless", "everything is lost", "resistance is pointless", etc. In general, he has already leaked New Russia for himself.
      1. vsoltan
        vsoltan 24 September 2014 15: 29
        +1
        russ, mountain shooter

        I strongly disagree with your assessment. The author is cruel in his conclusions, but extremely honest. Where is the provocation, gentlemen officers, I do not understand. It is stated correctly and in essence. And in fact, if you recognize the author's name as correct, then what confuses you? It is high time for Russia to stop trying to be "white and fluffy" and to pursue a tough foreign policy. Alas, too many of the current, "greedy crowd of those who stand at the throne" are tightly connected with Western civilization, too many of them love oysters and educate children in London ... therefore they hinder in every possible way healthy, pro-Russian forces in the leadership ... alas, they are in the minority ... and in general, what kind of romance in politics. Everything is correct. Russia's interests come first! soldier
        1. DRA-88
          DRA-88 24 September 2014 16: 39
          +2
          Quote: vsoltan
          figs romance in politics. All right. Russia's interests are above all!

          I absolutely agree with you!
          On my own behalf, I add that 20-year-old Russian politics have allowed their processes in the former Soviet republics to drift. The interests of the oligarchy were solely upheld, and the liberal party put a lot of effort into the greatest separation of the fraternal peoples.
          It is now that Russia should become a center of gravity for the peoples of the USSR, and not with bare slogans, but with its breakthrough in the economy and a solid foreign policy, the restoration of economic and industrial ties with the republics, and an improvement in the living standards of its own population. Peace and Democracy, or Western "partners"

          Threat. One question does not give rest: does the Russian government regard the business of parasinki as an investment in the Russian economy?
          I don’t like this kind of reckoning at all!
        2. smile
          smile 24 September 2014 16: 59
          +3
          vsoltan
          I believe that when evaluating the article, it should be taken into account that the author has been consistently trying for many years to convince his readers that Russia does not have its own path, that we must be friends with Western civilization, which is friendly enough to us, that we should be preparing for the war with China, that NATO poses no threat to us, including the military .... well, in the same vein.
          Given this, I am wary of his opinion and allegedly credible facts. Khramchikhin, in general, advocates for something diametrically opposite, rather than the recommendations that you give in your comment.
          1. vsoltan
            vsoltan 24 September 2014 17: 28
            0
            Khromchikhin’s articles, I confess, did not track ... with judgments, maybe I’m mistaken, but I understood it by reading it that way. As for relations with the EU and with China ... has repeatedly expressed on the forum ... what is happening now, still flowers .., a much bigger mess is coming - namely, the war between the yellow, Muslims and the Christian world ... this, of course, in the longer term, but it will be much more scary ... therefore, the current, generally peaceful position of the Russian Federation is understandable ... what is the zeal of the mattresses surprising ... do their global analysts understand nothing?
  4. Altona
    Altona 24 September 2014 14: 29
    +4
    Something the author went astray a bit ... As for the technique, this is a moot point, I don’t see other tanks in the news except for the T-64B (the chassis is small rollers, if it’s really stupid), the BTR-82 is also rather big and it’s I also didn’t see the news ... The issue of statehood of the LPR and the DPR can be resolved over time, if you do not twist their hands and help organizationally ... With the economy, it’s also quite possible to establish, even if there are coal resources in the Donbas ... still that iksperd, author of the article ...
    1. RUSS
      RUSS 24 September 2014 14: 44
      +2
      Quote: Altona
      The BTR-82-also a chalde is rather big and I did not see it in the news either.



      In the internet there was a photo from BTR-82 which many gave out as a photo from Donbass, but as it turned out a photo from South Ossetia.
    2. Kaskadermike
      Kaskadermike 24 September 2014 17: 46
      -2
      Nobody needs this fucking coal, especially when the mines that supplied the export coal were stopped, destroyed and flooded. Well, try to develop the flooded lava ... You are exactly that expert ...
  5. Dezinto
    Dezinto 24 September 2014 14: 31
    +3
    The conclusion is that this is a long time. The article is apparently in balance with another very optimistic article that appeared here today.

    Well, hate in Ukraine is definitely enough fuel for continuing deaths. That's just how they will continue their ATU in the winter,? you still have to look at it.
    1. mazhnikof.Niko
      mazhnikof.Niko 24 September 2014 14: 54
      +1
      Quote: DEZINTO
      Well, hate in Ukraine is definitely enough fuel for continuing deaths. That's just how they will continue their ATU in the winter,? you still have to look at it.


      What is there to watch! The sight will be a nightmare ...
      In the summer we sat without food, without water ... Water was extracted from "kalyuzh", and in winter? "Kaluzhi" will freeze, they will drink ...
      A terrible sight ... (as the donkey Eeyore said) ...
    2. The comment was deleted.
  6. Yellow white
    Yellow white 24 September 2014 14: 36
    0
    It’s a pity that there is no Crimean unity in the Donbass, that’s why the problem was all, it would be like in Crimea, it would have been a long time ago and the deal was over, and so ...
  7. Bronik
    Bronik 24 September 2014 14: 36
    +1
    In these circumstances, Russia had to use what is ironically called "Voentorg" on the Internet.

    I was sure that "Voentorg" is called the captured Ukrovskoy equipment. Am I wrong?
    1. Oldwiser
      Oldwiser 24 September 2014 17: 38
      +2
      and spare parts and components are removed from a similar broken-down ukrovskoy equipment? Are the ammunition and fuel and lubricants taken from the endless stocks of the so-called "military depots" located in the territory controlled by the militia? And the volunteers from Russia - all as one "immortals from the MacLeod clan"?
    2. Gagauz
      Gagauz 24 September 2014 17: 40
      0
      I think yes. I'm not sure about the equipment, but about ammunition (especially large caliber) and spare parts for equipment - 100% "Voentorg"
  8. corn
    corn 24 September 2014 14: 37
    0
    I liked the article, the main thing - there is no "hurray" and "pissed through polymers"
  9. Dangerous
    Dangerous 24 September 2014 14: 47
    +4
    By itself, of course, Novorossia will not survive if Russia does not support it. First-hand information - they do not pay pensions, benefits or salaries there right now. Private business is worth it, there is no one to even sell it. In general, people live off some kind of accumulation and private economy. My friend’s parents are in Donetsk, their grandmother walks on the porch, asks for a cup of soup, as there is no money at all (no pension).
    So independence is a double-edged sword. And without Russian help, Novorossia will turn into Somalia in winter
    1. Altona
      Altona 24 September 2014 14: 51
      +4
      Quote: Dangerous
      By itself, of course, Novorossia will not survive if Russia does not support it. First-hand information - they do not pay pensions, benefits or salaries there right now.

      ---------------------------
      So Kuev also de facto resigned to the loss of Donbass and behaves there as an invader, Novorossiya should be counted on in any way, Kuev carries only occupying garrisons to Donbass ...
    2. Oldwiser
      Oldwiser 24 September 2014 17: 40
      0
      The second expanded "Transnistria", only the analogue of the 14th army is not enough
  10. vsdvs
    vsdvs 24 September 2014 14: 53
    +4
    "When the West and Russia are now furiously accusing each other of interfering in the internal affairs of Ukraine, this is the top hypocrisy on both sides."
    THOSE. The author wants to say that the West just passed by and did not interfere in anything? "---"
  11. ed65b
    ed65b 24 September 2014 14: 54
    +3
    Let's see what will happen next, there are a lot of casanders, but we assume that the Lord has it. how it will be further known only to him. But the fact that Kiev has done so much madness and crime in the Donetsk region is undeniable.
  12. Watson J.
    Watson J. 24 September 2014 14: 54
    +5
    The author is not the Lord God, outlined his vision of the situation. Partly true. Part of underestimated the situation. More precisely, he underestimated a lot of things. I completely forgot about the role of the United States and their interests. Completely underestimates the desire of the Russian Federation to change the situation in Ukraine. So the vilest show is yet to come. The Russian Federation will no doubt squeeze maximum preferences to strengthen its position, and one of the obvious tactical steps in this direction is, for example, the DPR and LPR with gas and electricity, and ukrruin with firewood. Kakly they are interesting people, they have a homeland where it is more satisfying. Self-restraint will gallop and decide, and to hell with it, with a geyropa, let's better pretend to be brothers brothers again. A couple of radicals crucified for a look and again the brothers forever. The analysis drawn in the article does not hold water. GDP is not as simple as it seems. Chicks in the fall count, and radicals in the spring.
    1. Oldwiser
      Oldwiser 24 September 2014 17: 44
      +2
      My dear Watson, right there on the site in the article-forecast for the course of, so to speak, the autumn-winter campaign, the winter (!!!) offensive of the VSN is confidently predicted - like "the rivers will freeze - it will be easier to attack - and the whole APU will defect." So a lot of events are still awaiting us before spring.
      Yours sincerely, Sherlock H.
  13. Anchonsha
    Anchonsha 24 September 2014 15: 01
    +2
    Yes, the article is cynical and pragmatic from a liberal point of view. Russia did not intend to join the Donbass, even Putin foresaw at the very beginning of the turmoil what he could expect after the referendum of the inhabitants of Donbass, and therefore urged him not to rush into the referendum. But they did not listen to him. And it happened, what happened. The inhabitants of Donbass did not want to be under fascism, most spoke out against the junta, not thinking where it would lead. Not everyone took up arms even from among the miners, let alone ordinary inhabitants. Now we just need to prevent the war from flaring up, since the West will do everything to suppress the militia and this can be achieved by arming the fascist junta with the latest weapons.
  14. VladimS
    VladimS 24 September 2014 15: 04
    0
    Author Alexander Khramchikhin - stupid rot, sofa strategist. One more...
    Like bugs, they come out. Oh!
  15. Vladimir 70
    Vladimir 70 24 September 2014 15: 05
    +2
    From the article: Many explain the further actions of Russia by the implementation of the KhPP, that is, “Putin’s cunning plan”. Perhaps this plan is indeed very cunning, it is only a pity that Putin himself does not know anything about him .....
    At the beginning of 2014, the Russian president persuaded his Ukrainian counterpart to sluggish surrender, that is, to sign the well-known February agreements. In this case, the actions of Moscow were purely peacekeeping, not bringing it any real benefit. Nevertheless, the day after the signing of Yanukovych was overthrown. Putin decided that he was brazenly "thrown." After that, the “Crimean campaign” happened, which became a direct response to the “kidalovo”.
    This just says that Putin has a plan and he follows it, if only because there is no way to prepare and carry out the “Crimean campaign” in a month.
    1. The comment was deleted.
    2. Aleksander
      Aleksander 24 September 2014 18: 17
      0
      Putin himself admitted that there were no plans for joining and everything was organized precisely in TWO weeks (see April speeches)
  16. surovts.valery
    surovts.valery 24 September 2014 15: 06
    +5
    Russia will not only not join the Donbass, but also has no opportunity to provide him with truly serious economic assistance. Because of this, the standard of living in the unrecognized republics will most likely be lower than in the rest of Ukraine, which will cause a mass exodus of the most active population.

    Khramchikhin is also a seer, here from the wiki, his forecasts for South Ossetia and Syria (probably familiar to many, but let me remind you):
    On August 7 of 2008, the day before the outbreak of war in South Ossetia, Alexander Khramchikhin stated that he excludes the scenario of an armed conflict:
    There will be no Georgian offensive, this is absolutely ruled out. ... There will be no war in any case. Apparently, the goal of Georgia is to destabilize the situation in South Ossetia so that as many people as possible run away from there to Russia. This is done in order to weaken the republic militarily, economically and psychologically.
    Subsequent events gave critics reason to accuse him of incompetence.
    In January 2012, Khramchikhin, analyzing the events of the "Arab Spring", predicted:
    The most important act will be with a probability of 99 percent in 2012. This is the defeat of Syria, obviously Iran. This is almost absolutely inevitable.

    Note that here and there, in the forecasts, he focuses on the flight of the population and the deterioration of the economic situation in the unrecognized republics. Allegedly, these factors should lead to a loss of Russian interest in the republics and the denial of their help. As you can see, in the first case, this scenario did not work.
    But the fact is that Saakashvili and his puppeteers overseas were counting on such a scenario. Exactly the same scenario is now being conducted by a ukrokhunt in the Donbass and the very same puppeteers.
    And I personally had a firm belief that Comrade Khramchikhin in these scenarios is dedicated and works on their successful implementation. However, he thinks very strictly or strictly follows the methods of the State Department. On what is pierced.
    1. dmb
      dmb 24 September 2014 15: 41
      +4
      The epithet "vile-glorified" really fits Khramchikhin, for it is difficult to find a greater hater of the Soviet army, well, perhaps Solonin. He, in fact, could not resist in this article and kicked the Soviet past with "heaps of corpses." But otherwise I was surprised, not in the sense that I changed my views, but in the fact that I tried to be objective. Let's try, spitting on Khramchikhin, to assess the situation. Already today, the Pension Fund is freezing deposits, today the issues of supplying the Crimea with energy resources require huge investments, and today money from the Stabilization Fund is transferred to Rosneft. Even this small piece of information speaks of unforeseen and considerable expenses. Donbass has been destroyed no less than Chechnya. How much did it cost us and does the restoration of this subject, which makes up 1/100 of Novorossiya, cost us? Sadly, Khramchikhin is right. He is right that you cannot allocate much money for Novorossiya. They will take this money from you and me, not from Yakunin and Rotenberg. And since man is a wolf to man, the basic principle of our today's society, you can imagine what the current guardians of the Russian world will say about "freeloaders".
    2. Gagauz
      Gagauz 24 September 2014 17: 44
      +1
      That is exactly what it would have been, but in each case "Russia happened"
  17. MIV999
    MIV999 24 September 2014 15: 21
    +2
    The author of the article has a very gloomy outlook on life ... And the more I read it, the more I got the feeling that the author of the article, excuse me, wasn’t ours ... He devoted an entire article to why it is not worth winning in the Donbass - like it will be bad for Russia ...
    Forgive me, dear "expert", but let me not believe you ... Judging by the weight of your arguments, during the Great Patriotic War you would have left Stalingrad to the Germans - like let it not be the burden of the German economy ...
    Sorry, but such a logic disgusts me, as well as a look at what is happening the author of the article ... This is not the view of the patriot of Russia ... This is the view of a mercantile accountant ...
    The author, in particular, stubbornly forgets that in an "independent" economy, in comparison with the economy of Russia, there is now a much bigger F ... and only a very naive person can expect its revival. And his conclusion that after some time people from Donbass will flee to "prosperous" Ukraine - I am only puzzled ...
    Therefore, I read the article ... Thank you ... But I remain in my opinion ...
  18. akula
    akula 24 September 2014 15: 23
    0
    The article can be called: "Putin merged Donbass." If so, then what's next? 43 million Ukrainians who hate us, gone two-faced Europe under US jurisdiction, imposing "democracy" around the world and howling liberals and oligarchs inside Russia?
  19. Vovanische
    Vovanische 24 September 2014 16: 31
    0
    Quote: USSR 1971
    Yes, where does the accession of Donbass to Russia? It is necessary to stop the killing of civilians and throw out the Nazis. And how and with whom to live and make friends the people of New Russia should decide for themselves. But after all the abomination that the Kiev authorities with Ukraine had upheld there, they were no longer on their way.
    And what kind of weight will Kiev hang on itself? They can’t turn on hot water and will they restore the Donbass? The author got a little excited about this.


    In every way, when people are killed, you can not argue about kettlebells on anyone's legs. First of all, stop the war and then think about what to do next.
  20. northerner lech
    northerner lech 24 September 2014 16: 34
    +1
    I agree with Vladimir 70, Crimea is not impromptu, I remember how surprised I was at the same transparent ballot boxes that are not everywhere in Russia, the quick preparation of a referendum. As a matter of fact, we will all clear and harmonious work of everything and everything on the issue of Crimea. Now, your observations I won’t speak for the whole of Norilsk Nickel, but I will say about enterprises that are somehow related to NN in Norilsk itself. From the beginning of the 2000s, the main one, at least in terms of salary, was Rosbank, and this is the French. At the end of last year , all NN employees were forcibly transferred to salary services in Sberbank. Overnight, Rosbank lost about 200.000 customers in only one city. Is it a coincidence? In light of recent events, I somehow can’t believe it. Imho of course.
  21. Rurikovich
    Rurikovich 24 September 2014 17: 29
    +2
    I will express my opinion on a piece of the article about Transnistria. The West was silent on the actions of the Russian troops then because it did not know how to react. The union had just disintegrated, no one really knew the country's capabilities. And the strength and abilities of the USSR army were still fresh in the minds. That is why they were silent. It was later, when by the end of the 90s it became clear what Russia was like, what Yeltsin was and it became clear how deeply the pro-Western liberal elements were integrated into the top, the results of their "activities" became visible. The West sang a song about the defeated collos who became for them raw material appendage. The expansion of NATO also went into action with a smile, the destruction of the Slavic states, starting with Yugoslavia, began, pespardon prying into any business practically in the entire world. Because the counterweight was gone.
    Having become accustomed to this orgy, the West was already uncomfortable with the fact that already almost "dead" Russia began to snap back. She began to rise from her knees, began to develop and modernize the army, began to fight against liberalism. Therefore, they throw themselves into all grave "accusations" and suck the elephant out of the fly. Only without a malicious smile. Therefore, lies with hypocrisy have become the hallmark of the West from impotence. After all, Yeltsin is no longer in power, and the missiles have not only not rotted, but have begun to improve. And the people did not lose heart because of the pressure in the form of sanctions, but became even stronger.
    So the wretched rage ... drinks
    1. Aleksander
      Aleksander 24 September 2014 18: 11
      +1
      The author does not know what he is writing about. NEVER Russia recognized its participation in those events, although it participated in a veiled manner. In the 14 Army, the same Transnistrians served as soldiers and officers. So here they are on tanks - is it a Russian soldier on a Russian tank or a Transnistrian guardsman on a squeezed car? And Moscow, on the contrary, in every way pulled Swan, fearing the West. So the West had nothing to say, the rebels fought.
    2. Aleksander
      Aleksander 24 September 2014 18: 11
      0
      The author does not know what he is writing about. NEVER Russia recognized its participation in those events, although it participated in a veiled manner. In the 14 Army, the same Transnistrians served as soldiers and officers. So here they are on tanks - is it a Russian soldier on a Russian tank or a Transnistrian guardsman on a squeezed car? And Moscow, on the contrary, in every way pulled Swan, fearing the West. So the West had nothing to say, the rebels fought.
  22. Aleksander
    Aleksander 24 September 2014 18: 00
    +3
    Moscow’s desire to remove this weight from its neck and hang it on Kiev’s neck can become irresistible.
    According to the author's logic, there are such "weights" around the neck of Russia, practically all of the Non-Black Earth Region, for example. Should I tell someone too? Leave Moscow and the oil pipelines in Russia? And how many resources Russia has lost (according to the author's logic), adding new territories throughout history - it's scary to even think about!
    People are the main resource and wealth of any country, and Donbass has it, beautiful, hardworking Russian people, and should they "hang" Kiev? This is a huge gift for Russia, not a weight. And it is generally incorrect to compare Crimea with Donbass - the first held a referendum in the most hothouse conditions, and if the Polite had not taken control of the Rada, then there would have been no referendum (except for Sevastopol, of course). And Donbass, under bullets, with blood, with open passports in the millions, went to a referendum against the state, and this is a feat that I cannot find analogues. It's funny about the hostile population in general - in Crimea there are hundreds of thousands of Tatars who have always hated Russia, who can never be convinced, and in Donbass, of course, there are Russians who do not like Russia, but they are their own, albeit sagittered.
    Donbass is the same part of Novorossia, like Crimea, Odessa, Rostov-on-Don and Novorossisk. And if there is even the slightest opportunity to save Donbass, Russia must do it so that later "it will not be excruciatingly painful" ...
    1. kompotnenado
      kompotnenado 24 September 2014 18: 36
      +3
      stotyshmilyonov hating Russia Tatars. Where are the statistics from? Judging by the vote, the Tatars are also not averse to sending kaklov to a Chinese island.
      1. The comment was deleted.
      2. Aleksander
        Aleksander 24 September 2014 22: 10
        0
        250 000 only in Crimea and 150 000 in Turkey (descendants of those who escaped from Crimea.
  23. kompotnenado
    kompotnenado 24 September 2014 18: 33
    +3
    The author is clearly from prosrailsepolymers. The fact that Switzerland will not be in the Donbas so far is clear and without deep analysis. As well as the fact that not all economies are destroyed. Much can be restored quickly enough. The main result of this war lost by the kaklahs is to hate the inhabitants of Donbass towards the kaklanazists. And the understanding that ANY kakol is a Nazi. Donbass will never again be with Ukraine, no matter in Russia or not.
  24. VadimL
    VadimL 24 September 2014 18: 35
    +2
    It’s strange. This morning there was already an article written in a similar tonality. I doubt that this is a coincidence. The replication of such publications should be seen as a method of information war directed not only against New Russia, but primarily against Russia.
  25. Bronik
    Bronik 24 September 2014 18: 45
    0
    "Ukrainian Voentorg" again "leaked" military equipment to the militia of New Russia

    http://www.ridus.ru/news/165778
    That's what I asked. Not about ammunition and fuel.
  26. EvilLion
    EvilLion 24 September 2014 19: 11
    +1
    Khramchikhin wrote nonsense before, but now the roof has generally gone.