Military Review

The economic war of the West against Russia and possible asymmetrical answers

The economic war of the West against Russia and possible asymmetrical answers

Western economic sanctions against Russia are part of a broader phenomenon, namely economic war. One of the blows of such a war was, for example, the decision of the Hague court that the Russian Federation should pay compensation to 50 billion dollars to former foreign investors of the Yukos oil company. This "time bomb" was ready several years ago, but it blew up exactly today. There is no doubt that in the very near future, Washington, relying on the FATCA law (the law on taxation of foreign accounts), will start beating on Russian banks, imputing on them “complicity” to American legal entities and individuals who evade taxes. The penalty in this case may be, for example, a fine in the form of an automatic write-off of 30% of the amounts of financial transactions passing through the US banking system. For the sake of victory in the economic war against Russia, America may also begin a curtailment of the program of “quantitative easing”: this will immediately lead to the fact that foreign investors rush from Russia to the ocean, collapsing the Russian stock market. Washington's attempts are also possible, acting with the help of the leading banks of the Federal Reserve, at least for a short time to crash the oil market and create the situation in which the Soviet Union found itself in 1986 (sharp reduction in export currency earnings). The list of methods and means of waging economic war in Washington is extensive, and many of them were tested during the Cold War against the USSR.

The Russian response to Western sanctions is usually considered in the plane of counter sanctions, such as, for example, with the ban on the import of agricultural and food products. This symmetrical measure (counter sanctions in response to sanctions) undoubtedly yielded results, but in the current situation it may turn out to be insufficient. The situation is such that it will have to act outside the box, using the best domestic and foreign experience in economic wars, electing an asymmetrical response that allows you to achieve complete victory. This article discusses two possible asymmetric responses of Russia to the Western sanctions policy.

Exit from the World Trade Organization

Estimates of what damage suffered and will still be borne by Western farmers and processors of agricultural products after the retaliatory sanctions of Moscow are different. Figures starting from 5 billion euros, there are estimates in 10 and even 20 billion euros. However, the question is not in concrete figures. The question is that today's losses of foreign commodity producers are in fact those damages which, as a result of timely measures taken, were avoided by Russian commodity producers. These are the very damages that arose among Russian farmers after Russia's accession to the WTO two years ago, when a significant part of the Russian market was given to foreigners. Today, justice has triumphed, but the farmer fears that this is not forever, and therefore he does not hurry to invest in the expansion of production. The increase in production is mainly due to unloaded capacity. And this is usually only 10-20%.

Begs for more radical solutions. At a meeting of the State Council of the Russian Federation on 18 September, President V.Putin raised the issue of WTO activities. He called Western sanctions against Russia a violation of the basic principles of the World Trade Organization. “The restrictions imposed against Russia are nothing more than a rejection of the basic principles of the WTO by our partners,” Putin said. “The principle of equality of conditions for market access to countries is violated, the most favored-trade regime is ignored, and the principle of fair and free competition is ignored.” The President stressed that all this is being done without any observance of WTO rules. In fact, Putin said, a group of Western countries allowed itself to unilaterally “strike out” a number of principles and rules of the WTO for Russia, which, the Russian president recalled, is among the six largest economies in the world. Continue this thought.

The behavior of some WTO members is in flagrant contradiction with the norms not only of the organization, but of the whole international law. The unilateral sanctions of the USA and Great Britain are illegitimate; they have not received the approval of the UN Security Council. According to the UN, at the beginning of the 21st century, these two countries applied unilateral economic sanctions against countries in which 52% of the world's population lived. Why does the WTO close its eyes to the fact that there is no trace of free trade in the world? Why has the WTO never raised the issue of punishing the United States and Britain? Meanwhile, the WTO has various forms of penalties. I believe that Russia, as a full member of the WTO, has the right and should raise the issue of excluding these two violators from the organization. And in this case, it could continue to remain in the ranks of the WTO. And if this fails, then just leave the ranks of the WTO. It is said that the procedure for withdrawing from the WTO is complex, which, they say, will have to pay astronomical sums of compensation and fines. The question is, why would Russia fulfill the complex exit rules if the organization does not live by the laws, but “by the rules”? Either all comply with WTO and international law, or Russia is free from obligations. And if Russia withdraws from the WTO, the Russian commodity producer, with a sigh, will be able to give a worthy response to the initiators of the economic war. It is said that there was no precedent for quitting the WTO. Why not create a precedent that, according to some signs, other members of this organization are ready to use? Especially since this is not going anywhere. There are real alternatives, including the Customs Union (CU). It is not excluded, by the way, that with such a step Russia will warn its partners in the CU of Belarus and Kazakhstan with joining the WTO.

Declaration of default on foreign debts

The financial situation in Russia today is not easy. The depreciation of the Russian currency unit signals an increased demand for foreign currency in the domestic market. And this demand is generated by the global situation. In particular, investors are waiting for the curtailment of the program of “quantitative easing” in America and the expected increase in interest rates in the US market “are packing their suitcases” and changing rubles for currency. As a result of economic sanctions, many Russian banks and companies lost the opportunity to refinance their debts by obtaining new loans and credits (they are allowed to use only very “short” loans on the world market). As during the last financial crisis, there was a risk of bankruptcies of Russian banks and companies or their transfer under the control of foreign investors and creditors. Five years ago, this was avoided because the government came to the rescue, the Stabilization Fund was “printed out”, from which Russian businessmen received the vital currency and managed to survive.

However, today the situation is different from that in 2008-2009. In the second half of the last decade, an interesting picture was observed: the sum of Russian international currency reserves almost exactly coincided with the value of the external debt of the Russian Federation. I do not think it was an accident. It was a kind of planning, which provided for 100-percentage coverage of Russia's external liabilities with its foreign exchange reserves. There is no doubt that it was not the monetary authorities of Russia that were engaged in this planning, but foreign creditors. In recent years, foreign debt began to overtake the size of the currency reserve of the Russian Federation. Thus, in the middle of 2014, the external aggregate (public and private) debt of the Russian Federation reached 721 billion dollars, while international reserves amounted to 467 billion dollars, including the currency part (without gold) - 423 billion dollars. It turns out that the degree of coverage of Russian foreign debt with foreign exchange reserves amounted to only 58,7%. For the debtor, this is an uncomfortable situation. But for lenders, it is very promising. You can take the debtor with your bare hands. If you push him to the end, he will not be able to fight back. The reserve fund and the National Wealth Fund may not be enough to repay external liabilities. I believe that it is here that we should expect a strike in the economic war of the West against Russia.

It is necessary to act in this situation quickly, ahead of time, outside the box. Namely: to declare a default on external liabilities, not waiting until Western creditors begin to gut Russian companies and banks. Each default is unique in its own way. And this will also be unique. It will be announced not because of the inability to repay its obligations, but because of the fact that the West puts Russia in a deliberately unfavorable financial and economic position with its sanctions. Here is the same situation as with membership in the WTO: why should Russia comply with the conditions of legal documents (agreements on loans and borrowings) if we are rude to us, ignoring the fundamental principles of international law? Almost a hundred years ago, the Soviet government announced that it was refusing to pay the pre-war debts of the tsarist government and the military credits of the tsarist and provisional governments (for a total of about 18 billion gold rubles). By the way, for such a step there were very weighty grounds of a legal nature. It was a preventive default, although no such thing existed yet. I think we will have to remember the experience of Soviet Russia, against which the West waged an almost continuous economic war.

The next step after declaring a default may be setting the conditions for the West: discussion of the issue of Russian foreign debts can only begin after the complete abolition of economic sanctions against Russia. And if this condition is met, claims for damages that Russia incurred as a result of sanctions may be made. I remind you again history: in 1922, at the international conference in Genoa, the West "rolled out" Soviet foreign claims on 18 billion evils for Soviet Russia. rub., and Moscow responded with counterclaims to the West for 39 billion evils. rub. These were the losses and lost profits that Russia suffered as a result of the intervention of the “allies” and the economic blockade organized by them.

If the partners of Russia are ready to continue to cooperate with us, we will probably suggest that they restructure our foreign debt, taking into account the “troubles” that they brought us by imposing their own economic sanctions.

Other asymmetric responses can be offered, but perhaps the most effective of these will be the import substitution that President V. Putin spoke about at the September 18 Council of State. Speaking in other terms, it is about industrialization. And here Russia has something to learn from itself. For ten years (1929-1939) in the course of industrialization in the USSR almost 10 thousands of enterprises were built. The country received a powerful, independent economy, thanks to which it emerged victorious from the Second World War.

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  1. ShturmKGB
    ShturmKGB 23 September 2014 14: 36
    and sell oil for rubles ...
    1. kuzia rocker
      kuzia rocker 23 September 2014 14: 52
      Kogra Russia is pressed against the wall, our country always gets out and puts it on the wall of the enemy. so it was and so wakes up !!!
      1. Samaritan
        Samaritan 23 September 2014 15: 08

        This type is not awesome - while it is quiet ?! )))
        Our partners understand only power, sanctions are necessary:
        refusal to fly into space, sale of rare earth metals and "privatization" of foreign factories .. for example "RENO" for refusing to supply Mistrals ...
        but in general, I think that without us GDP will figure it out, won in Ukraine already, the EU lifts sanctions, Novorossia gained autonomy, another riot is brewing in Kiev ... Everything is going according to plan !!!
      2. sgazeev
        sgazeev 23 September 2014 16: 22
        Quote: kuzia-roker
        Kogra Russia is pressed against the wall, our country always gets out and puts it on the wall of the enemy. so it was and so wakes up !!!

        Lenin lived, Lenin lives, Lenin will live!
        1. Fox hound
          Fox hound 23 September 2014 17: 30
          good picture. smoking is a program to reduce the population. how much does the Ministry of Health spend on treating the consequences of this ... this money would be for something more useful ...
      3. VAF
        VAF 23 September 2014 17: 40
        Quote: kuzia-roker
        Kogra Russia is pressed against the wall, our country always gets out and puts it on the wall of the enemy. so it was and so wakes up !!!

        Forget unfortunately! soldier

        And after yesterday’s speech by V.V. Putin, request

        The President of Russia together with the head of the board of VTB Bank intend to continue the activities of Russian banks in Ukraine. They occupy about 30% of the entire financial sector and are essential for the Ukrainian economy, the president of the Russian Federation believes. belay

        Russian President Vladimir Putin believes that the cessation of the functioning of Russian banks in Ukraine could be a significant blow to its financial system. That is why he in every possible way supports the activities of banking structures in a country with such a difficult military-political situation.

        Financial institutions of the Russian Federation in Ukraine occupy over 30% of the entire financial sector. Understandably, their absence can lead to large losses and a difficult situation in the Ukrainian economy. And we do not need this at all, "said Vladimir Putin at a meeting with the head of VTB Bank Andrey Kostin. belay

        That is to say .. the dead scene and .... "not a commercial break" recourse
        1. Ruslan67
          Ruslan67 23 September 2014 17: 48
          Quote: vaf
          Russian financial institutions in Ukraine occupy more than 30% of the entire financial sector.

          Quote: vaf
          That is to say .. the dead scene and .... "not a commercial break"

          Serge hi Hi drinks Thirty percent is to hell If we stop the place immediately takes the west or China Will it become easier for us? Everything is already so confused that the bolt knows what is better
    2. alicante11
      alicante11 23 September 2014 15: 43
      As long as the ruble is pegged to the dollar, it won’t give anything. But having untied the ruble from the dollar, we will immediately solve many problems, in particular, we will be able to saturate the economy with liquidity freely and within the necessary limits.
      In general, if such a booze has already gone, then you need to cut the last cucumber. At the same time, we also refuse to convert the ruble so that we are not crushed by currency attacks, establishing a solid domestic exchange rate of the ruble against the dollar. Moreover, all the same, free circulation of currency in Russia has been stopped for a long time. Unfortunately, no particular progress in this direction has yet been seen.
      1. Zhekson
        Zhekson 23 September 2014 21: 00
        I agree, but then some legislation needs to be changed.
    3. Lelek
      Lelek 23 September 2014 19: 01
      and sell oil for rubles ...

      Both oil and gas will be sold for rubles, which the West will buy from us for Eureka and Dollyariki. bully
  2. DOC
    DOC 23 September 2014 14: 38
    It is necessary to respond to sanctions, but more competently and more radically! Retaliatory sanctions should hit key EU countries. Thus, the ban on the import of cars with their replacement by Japanese and South Korean will hit the German economy, and the ban on the supply of wines will hit the economies of France, Italy, and Spain. This is the only way to "reach the brain of people who are in a state of ideological stupor."
    1. VPO
      VPO 23 September 2014 15: 53
      I'll tell you more. The ban on the import of canned goods will lead to the collapse of the Greek economy and will hit Spain. We with the help of products can still oh how to answer Europe. We have not even answered yet. I’ll live quietly without rotten olives and olive oil, but the Greeks will not be pulled out. Heals these freaks only with a whip. It’s a pity that in our government all sorts of scum have plummeted. These newly formatted semi-Geyvropec people like Dvorkovich slow down the answer.
      1. Denny
        Denny 23 September 2014 16: 13
        Quote: malware
        I’ll live quietly without rotten olives and olive oil

        Not rotten tried to buy? laughing
    2. Bobxnumx
      Bobxnumx 23 September 2014 16: 08
      Retaliatory sanctions should hit ALL EU countries. Then the European Union will be combed out, any choosiness does not lead to good, no EU country should relax.
  3. Neighbor
    Neighbor 23 September 2014 14: 39
    and sell oil for rubles ...
    And with a prepayment.
  4. Giant thought
    Giant thought 23 September 2014 14: 39
    The main thing is not to be late with our response to Chamberlain.
  5. Loner_53
    Loner_53 23 September 2014 14: 41
    And here Russia has something to learn from itself. For ten years (1929-1939), during the course of industrialization, almost 10 thousand enterprises were built in the USSR. The country received a powerful, independent economy, thanks to which it emerged victorious from World War II.
    And now it would be so! smile
    1. kyznets
      kyznets 23 September 2014 15: 15
      For Soviet-Stalin-style industrialization, several conditions are necessary:
      -the opportunity and desire in power;
      -hard, even cruel centralization of power;
      - trust or complete submission to this power (ideological and passionate);
      -high level of responsibility of builders (high to the extreme);
      -tight planning in all directions;
      - Relative equality among builders from the lowest to the highest level.
      In short, we need socialism, a party, Stalin, the NKVD, and excuse the GULAG. Who is ready for this? So, dream of industrialization as in the USSR in 1929-1939. it is possible, but it is manilovism by definition. We need a new industrialization, with a new base and in new conditions. But first it is necessary to change the ENTIRE structure of the administrative-bureaucratic apparatus. Otherwise, you will get a new bridge to the Russky Island, the road to it and "an elephant will give birth to a mouse." They will drink the whole industrialization, a new squad of industrial ligarchs will emerge, who have grown out of controlling and financing officials. Therefore, with industrialization, we will wait for the end of the fight against corruption.
      Putin - for many years, and America is a set of - fast, and bright finale!
  6. FC SKIF
    FC SKIF 23 September 2014 14: 41
    It is in economics that they can replay us. albeit with losses for yourself. Enough, sorry, keep your eggs hostage in the pranks
  7. Evgen4ik
    Evgen4ik 23 September 2014 14: 43
    I will tell you so ... the 5th column leaked us. When Putin’s adviser Belousov speaks on television, we’ll certainly introduce retaliatory sanctions to increase pressure from the EU. that everything is calculated, all measures are ready, we are waiting for the signal current. And a couple of days after the EU introduces an additional package, Medvedev’s ministers begin to cackle about what we all want, we won’t answer and if necessary, we can even fall asleep, but we didn’t even talk about strengthening retaliatory sanctions and no one has ever discussed this issue. Well, how can this be explained? as?
    1. vsoltan
      vsoltan 23 September 2014 16: 53
      In-in, for days he wrote about "the explosion of domestic gas in Sochi" In response - indignation ... how can you be so cruel? Can.
    2. vsoltan
      vsoltan 23 September 2014 16: 53
      In-in, for days he wrote about "the explosion of domestic gas in Sochi" In response - indignation ... how can you be so cruel? Can.
  8. r_narozhny
    r_narozhny 23 September 2014 14: 46
    The article is good! But macroeconomics is not the hobby of most of the inhabitants of Russia. On the topic, Putin himself, like any other investor, understands that with Russian law there is a risk that even the money that the state will pour into the Russian economy can be stolen. The main problem is our legislation and not always the efficient work of state structures, which together gives crooks the loot of the budget and ordinary consumers. Laws need to be written normally and their compliance monitored, then it will be more difficult to steal.
    1. Styx
      Styx 23 September 2014 16: 11
      Yes, yes, with the executive branch we definitely have some kind of problems and gaps
    2. Djuma
      Djuma 23 September 2014 17: 18
      Our laws are normal, we just need to monitor their compliance. And we have hand-to-hand washes, bureaucrats-cops-prosecutors-judges are one mafia. We need popular control, such as oprichnina. They opened a criminal case against Serdyukov - and still haven’t gotten away with them until they put him in jail. They complained about the bureaucrat - follow until punished.
  9. Alf
    Alf 23 September 2014 14: 59
    And here Russia has something to learn from itself. For ten years (1929-1939), during the course of industrialization, almost 10 thousand enterprises were built in the USSR. The country received a powerful, independent economy, thanks to which it emerged victorious from World War II.

    The fact is that Putin has only two years to break through. In 2016, he will cease to presidency, and who will succeed is unknown, God forbid, liberals with iPhones.
    Why does the WTO close its eyes to the fact that there is no trace of freedom of trade in the world? Why has the WTO never raised the question of punishing the United States and Great Britain?

    Weird question. Because the United States and its mistress, Britain are the founders of the WTO. And even before the registration of the WTO, they created conditions for themselves in which they will play a decisive role in this bandit office.
    1. KazakPatrol
      KazakPatrol 23 September 2014 18: 04
      The election of the President of Russia in 2018 !!!! Learn the materiel, comrade! good
  10. hohkn
    hohkn 23 September 2014 15: 15
    and sell oil for rubles ...

    Only not crude oil, but finished oil products.
  11. Lenar
    Lenar 23 September 2014 15: 22
    At a great price!
  12. VICTOR-61
    VICTOR-61 23 September 2014 15: 31
    Early Khodorkovsky wasn’t released yet the whole forest had to be cut down and all these aligarchs needed to be collected and let them work for the good of their homeland and not the support of their dollars stolen in Russia and bought up to Europe and America and half of London it was time to squeeze them and consider privatization and nicer every Russian has a share in it’s fair to share it; by the way, it turns out they stole money and rob it, and soon we’ll all go unemployed and blame Europe, which has imposed sanctions against us and our economy is noticeably falling;
  13. Roman 1977
    Roman 1977 23 September 2014 15: 34
    Somehow like this...

  14. raid14
    raid14 23 September 2014 15: 49
    To prohibit deliveries to countries that supported sanctions against Russia of rare-earth metals, for the production of high alloy steels, titanium for the aircraft industry, reducing the supply of oil and gas to Europe under existing contracts to minimum values, transferring existing contracts for payment in national currency, disposal of US Federal Reserve securities and other foreign agents with the transfer of part of the funds to gold and their own economy.
  15. Tima
    Tima 23 September 2014 16: 15
    All sorts of international unions are kidalovo in its purest form, in any situation, Russia is to blame.
  16. aleks700
    aleks700 23 September 2014 16: 22
    Russia has a lot to learn from itself. For ten years (1929-1939 gg.) During the industrialization in the USSR, almost 10 thousand enterprises were built. The country received a powerful, independent economy, thanks to which it emerged victorious from World War II.
    Hardworking people lived at that time. They actually besides work did not know anything. And now young people are looking for where not to work. Of course not all. But a lot. Yes, and without the initial capital of the business you will not open, and who will give it? Unless, of course, there are relatives who can contribute.
  17. Evgeni
    Evgeni 23 September 2014 16: 31
    In Crimea, the property of Kalomoysha was arrested. less than six months
    Italy arrested the property of Arkady Rotenberg
    The total value of the assets seized is estimated at € 30 million. The Italian financial guard froze assets and seized property, which, according to her, belongs to Russian businessman Arkady Rotenberg.
  18. albi77
    albi77 23 September 2014 16: 41
    The main response to the sanctions is the support of its manufacturer and all strategic production in the Russian Federation, not in China to buy, not in India, not even in Kazakhstan ... but to produce at home.
    And not only the production itself, but also the production of machine tools for the defense industry is also its own.

    And then there you want and in what direction you can turn.
  19. Gora66
    Gora66 23 September 2014 17: 15
    While those who have accounts in Western banks are in power, there can be no talk of any "symmetrical response" to the West ... and I think all our liberal ministers have accounts "over the hill" ...
  20. qQQQ
    qQQQ 23 September 2014 17: 43
    Before declaring a default, it is necessary to withdraw all our "stabilization funds", and not on paper, but physically, in general, the principle is simple: take everything out of the valuable, and then default.
  21. komel
    komel 23 September 2014 19: 38
    In my opinion, it is not clear where the amounts in this article are taken. The structure of the state external debt of the Russian Federation as of August 1, 2014 is 109209,2 million US dollars. Information on the movement of funds in the account of the Federal Treasury with the Bank of Russia on accounting for the funds of the Reserve Fund in US dollars dated 08.09.2014. Account balance (in US dollars) 40 820 500 938,57. Crediting of foreign currency acquired at the expense of the federal budget within the scope of the additional oil and gas revenues of the federal budget received in 2013 2 736 410 966,74 transaction amount (in US dollars)

    The debt of the Russian Federation can serve and the question of the rejection of its obligations is out of the question.
  22. aud13
    aud13 23 September 2014 20: 10
    On the issue of retaliatory measures against the United States and its allies.
    I don’t understand - Why aren’t we fined for foreign companies that give bribes to our thieving officials and come across this? For example:
    "The American corporation Hewlett-Packard has pleaded guilty to violating the law prohibiting American companies from giving bribes abroad, and agreed to pay a fine of $ 108 million for paying bribes in Russia, Mexico and Poland."
    At the beginning of this year, the German concern Daimler admitted that it spent more than $ 5 million on kickbacks to Russian officials when delivering Mercedes cars to government agencies. The American Justice Ministry (under American law, it has the right to judge all companies listed on the New York Stock Exchange) ordered the company to pay a $ 185 million fine.

    I believe that since the company has fallen for bribes and pays a fine in their home country, then in Russia, then it must pay the same fine unequivocally.
    And the effect is double positive:
    1. Income to the budget;
    2. The fight against corruption.
  23. komel
    komel 23 September 2014 20: 12
    I think it’s worth calculating the exit from the World Trade Organization of Russia.

    The USA supports Kazakhstan’s accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO), Russia can advise Kazakhstan on its opinion, but Kazakhstan should make a choice from its economic needs. Russia and China will develop strategic partnership and cooperation in solving regional and global problems, regardless of Kazakhstan’s decision to join Kazakhstan to the World Trade Organization.
  24. Thompson
    Thompson 23 September 2014 20: 20
    and sell oil for rubles ...

    Better yet, not raw, but its products
  25. mmrr
    mmrr 23 September 2014 23: 40
    Our answer to the West.