Military Review

"Maidan" in Nagorno-Karabakh?

The United States believes that Moscow has been trying to renew the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan for a month, presenting itself as an international peacemaker. On the contrary, Russian analysts are confident that the summer exacerbation of the situation in Nagorno-Karabakh is related to the scenarios developed in the White House. It is there that sits the main "peacemaker" of the planet.

"Maidan" in Nagorno-Karabakh?

В "New York Times" recently appeared an article by Brenda Shaffer (Brenda Shaffer), a professor of political science at the University of Haifa and a visiting researcher in Georgetown (USA).

In her opinion, Ukraine is “not the only place where Russia is going to stir up the water." Once the Soviet Union collapsed in the 1991 year, Moscow traditionally supports the separatists in the border states. The goal of the Kremlin is to force these states to accept Moscow dictate. And one of such attempts to impose one’s will is observed now in the South Caucasus, the political scientist believes.

In recent weeks, Moscow seems to be busy with the aggravation of the long-standing conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan, in which it pretends to be a peacemaker for both states, the professor writes. Only in the first week of August, 40 Armenian and Azerbaijani soldiers died in fierce battles near the border - and this happened "just before the summit convened by Russian President Vladimir Putin."

Brenda Schaeffer is confident that Russia "has found ways to maintain the conflict in a smoldering state." Russia has a reason to send in its troops: forcing the parties to peace. In the presence of Russian troops, none of the parties to the conflict can "work closely" with the West, "without fear of retaliation from Moscow," the political scientist concludes.

Further, she is outraged by the summit meeting that took place on 10 in August in Sochi, at which Mr. Putin sought to reach an agreement on the deployment of additional Russian "peacekeepers" (quotes in the original: "peacekeepers") between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Amazingly, Schaeffer writes how US officials reacted to this. Washington declared that he "welcomes" the summit under the auspices of Russia. “Has Washington not really learned the lessons of Georgia and Ukraine?” The author is indignant. And here he gives some advice to Obama.

In order to prevent the escalation of the conflict in the Caucasus and to take away from Putin "a pretext for a new land grab," the American president must "invite the leaders of Azerbaijan and Armenia to Washington and show that America has not abandoned the South Caucasus." Such a meeting, according to the scientist, would stimulate the leaders to "resist the pressure of Russia." Support for such a confrontation could be obtained at the level of the UN General Assembly, Schaeffer said.

In her opinion, the United States must show that Russia is to blame for the conflict. Also, the White House is obliged to resist "any so-called conflict resolution," which leads to "the deployment of additional Russian troops in the region."

The West needs a strategy to prevent Moscow from seizing the next border region, according to Scheffer. Nagorno-Karabakh is the next, albeit remote, front on which Russia will focus "efforts to restore the lost empire."

If the South Caucasus is “surrendered” by Washington and loses its independence, it will be a “fatal blow” that Russia will inflict on America’s ability to support alliances in the former Soviet Union and beyond, sheffer sums up.

Maxim Makarychev ("Russian newspaper") gives an analysis of the situation from the opposite point of view.

The analyst points out that the aggravation of the situation in Nagorno-Karabakh in the summer of 2014 coincides with the culmination of the punitive operation in south-eastern Ukraine. In his opinion, the two scenarios are similar, and their “director” is registered in one theater - “on the other side of the Atlantic”.

According to Makarychev, the trilateral meeting in Sochi, about which the foreign political scientist wrote, "once again confirmed the high level of trusting relations between Vladimir Putin and his Azerbaijani and Armenian colleagues." The meeting showed that there are real ways to resolve the conflict. Well, the result of the Sochi meeting: through the mediation of the Russian president, the armed clashes in Nagorno-Karabakh were stopped.

However, even against such a “positive background,” the journalist points out, influential forces in the West, including the United States, are interested in provoking two “hot neighbors” to the conflict. At its last summit in Wales, the North Atlantic alliance made it clear that it would “defend the rights of the former Soviet republics.” And this Caucasian conflict, Makarichev considers, can become “more bloody than Ukrainian”.

With regard to the international "peacekeeping" role of the United States, the reporter recalls that on September 10 B.H. Obama, turning to the Americans, called the American leadership "the only constant in an unstable world."

The aspirations of the “hawks” who came to the White House with Obama “are dictated by a stable dominant to weaken the foreign policy of the Russian Federation,” writes the journalist. In addition, Washington has its own economic interests in the South Caucasus. The prize for the winner in the Caucasus issue will be access to regional energy resources.

“In such“ global aspirations ”, supported by“ raw materials feeding, ”it is not up to the fate of ordinary people suffering in the conflict zone. This is proven by the events that occur with frightening periodicity during the reign of the Nobel laureate, Obama's “peacemaker” in various regions of the world who were “touched by Washington’s hand.” Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, Syria, Ukraine - in those countries where in recent years Barack Obama tried to play the role of “main peacemaker”, rivers of blood spilled and invariably happened humanitarian catastrophes. The death of thousands of people was perceived in the White House not as a tragedy, but as ordinary statistics. If everything that the mythological king Midas touched turned into gold, then everything that Obama is trying to “settle” in conflict zones turns even more than before with violence and numerous victims. In addition, Americans are worried about the closer ties between Russia and the post-Soviet states that have emerged recently. In particular, the intention of Armenia to join the Customs Union. "

The repetition of Kiev "Maidan" in the Caucasus could turn into a disaster, the analyst summarizes.

Washington’s interests in the South Caucasus, therefore, pursue two clear goals: economic and political. If the political goal is to weaken Russia in terms of its influence in the post-Soviet space, then the economic goal was voiced by one of the best subordinates of Obama - Hillary Clinton.

Being at the position of state secretary, she made energy promises to the American audience more than once. This is not surprising: energy is the key to power and at the same time fueling the petrodollar.

Two and a half years ago, in the spring of 2012, Hillary Clinton opened her heart to students at the University of Syracuse (New York). She is put it very clearly: “Diplomacy in the energy sector is a critical factor in our national security, not only in terms of meeting the energy needs of the United States at an affordable price, but also in terms of the role that energy plays in our relations with other regions of the world.”

And if you remember what advice Brenda Schaeffer gave the White House, then it becomes clear that in conflicts related directly or indirectly to access to energy resources and the US energy policy in general, Russia and Putin personally should be blamed as soon as possible. In the Donbas war? Blame Putin. Conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh? He gave Putin. Crimea? Two opinions can not be. A little more, and it will become clear that Putin organized the "Islamic State" and in parallel amuses himself with piracy off the coast of Somalia.

In short, the terms of Putin! No wonder the Western press already hints that the Russian president has unsealed a nuclear briefcase and is preparing to blow up nuclear missiles in Eastern Europe. Why all this is necessary to Putin, no one specifies. He's probably just bad. And the owner of the White House is a good one.

Observed and translated by Oleg Chuvakin
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  1. parusnik
    parusnik 18 September 2014 09: 07
    In a word, Putin is all around!... This is already a shiz mowing down the ranks of Western politicians ...
    1. insafufa
      insafufa 18 September 2014 09: 35
      Yes, when you watch their movie it becomes sickening they say that they will have order in the future And the states will be like a thousand-year Reich forever. Germany doesn’t remind you of anything like that, and now the United States
    2. Andrey Yuryevich
      Andrey Yuryevich 18 September 2014 19: 28
      Apollo deceased, he painted this topic very well, recently, I think anyone will find it interesting, about two months ago there was a conversation on this topic ...
  2. Black
    Black 18 September 2014 09: 35
    I would like to see the comments of our friends from Armenia and Azerbaijan ....
    Something we rarely saw them ....
    1. kotdavin4i
      kotdavin4i 18 September 2014 11: 27
      Quote: Chen
      Something we rarely saw them ....

      We partisan ....
  3. aszzz888
    aszzz888 18 September 2014 09: 41
    The aspirations of the "hawks" who came to the White House with Obama are "dictated by a stable dominant to weaken the foreign policy of the Russian Federation",

    Baboons will not calm down. Only one thing will save the world then them - ALL IN A CELL ... and open over the ocean.
  4. Bakht
    Bakht 18 September 2014 10: 19
    Professor's head should be treated. Neither America nor Russia needs a war in Karabakh. Another thing is the destabilization of the situation in the country. But the weakening of power in Azerbaijan is very, very beneficial to the West. The August events at the front are the clear work of the West. And immediately this provocation yielded results. Central authority in Azerbaijan received a blow. But I. Aliyev is far from Yanukovych. The retaliatory strike was also impressive. I do not mean events at the front. A retaliatory strike was inflicted on the opposition in Baku.

    The problem is that you can sit on two chairs for a long time in conditions of stability. When everything is blazing, Azerbaijan will have to make its choice. The ruling regime gravitates toward Moscow, the bulk of the population - towards the West. The slightest weakening of central authority in Baku will have its own Maidan. But with a touch of Islam. That is, ISIS will rule the ball.

    Conclusion - I would put cold lotions on the professor's head. It is possible and lead.
  5. Nitarius
    Nitarius 18 September 2014 10: 23
  6. Knizhnik
    Knizhnik 18 September 2014 12: 12
    No need to scare Azerbaijan with a new Maidan by order of the United States, they themselves do a good job. US politicians threaten in plain text, they also remember in vain the situation with human rights and other torture of prisoners, which they promise to pay close attention to if Azerbaijan is intractable.
  7. vladushqa92
    vladushqa92 18 September 2014 13: 32
    "Also, the White House is obliged to oppose" any so-called conflict resolution "that leads" to the deployment of additional Russian troops in the region. "

    To counter this, they are going to send their troops to these territories and deploy additional troops.
  8. Yeraz
    Yeraz 18 September 2014 14: 50
    To get to Armenia occupying the Karabakh in one military alliance with Russia, the Russian base is there, in addition, the parties to the conflict are arming Russia with 80% of Azerbaijan and 100% of Armenia.
    And then they say that the Americans are to blame, they smolder the conflict, etc. They are certainly not allies of Azerbaijan.
    Here, the first string is with Russia, and so far, only because of its position does this conflict exist.
  9. kav669
    kav669 18 September 2014 18: 32
    This is a time bomb, as is Transnistria. Now the second Transnistria of New Russia will appear.
  10. Dry_T-50
    Dry_T-50 18 September 2014 20: 22
    Quote: Alexander Romanov
    The United States decided that it was time for Georgia to return South Ossetia. I now congratulate you or after dinner

    Maybe, but this time the Georgians will not see mercy. If I am not mistaken, then the Russian bases are located in 40 km. from Tbilisi. In 2-3 hours no one will have time to help Georgia in the second expansion
  11. waggish
    waggish 20 September 2014 16: 32
    Information war!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    What war and with whom are Azerbaijan preparing?

    Turkish Prime Minister Ahmet Davudoglu arrived in Azerbaijan on an official visit. This is the second visit after President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, a high-ranking Turkish official to Azerbaijan. This is a peculiar tradition: Turkish leaders, after being elected or appointed, first visit Cyprus, then Azerbaijan.

    The relationship between Ankara and Baku has always been stable, but not always problem-free. So last spring, the Baku official, director of the Center for Political Innovations and Technologies, political scientist Mubariz Ahmedoglu stated that "Azerbaijan has often fought for Turkey’s interests more than Turkey itself," and that "Azerbaijani-Turkish relations create additional difficulties for Azerbaijan," because "they always been in the spotlight of the West, and Russia, and Iran. ” Baku still painfully accepts the fact that the Zurich Protocols were signed between Turkey and Armenia in October 2009, that "Turkish President Abdullah Gul turned out to be the second person after Vladimir Putin who congratulated Serzh Sargsyan just a week before Khojaly’s anniversary." But Turkey also looks askance at Azerbaijan, especially considering that it did not follow its example in relations with Israel. At the same time, the parties are trying not to stick out the existing problems, appeal more to the ideas of "fraternal solidarity."

    So it was this time, when Turkish Prime Minister Davutoglu at a joint briefing with Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev said that "he does not see the difference between Turkey and Azerbaijan, to serve Azerbaijan means to serve Turkey, and vice versa." Nevertheless, Davutoglu’s current visit to Azerbaijan has one important feature. It coincided with the final stage of the joint Azerbaijani-Turkish military exercises. Turkish air forces and helicopters arrived in Azerbaijan to participate in them.
  12. waggish
    waggish 20 September 2014 16: 34
    Information war !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 1
  13. xent
    xent 20 September 2014 19: 07
    Someone never highlighted the facts about who the Armenians are.
    Here is one - a map of Ptolemy ... 2nd century NE ...
    Just if one of you still thinks that the Armenians are Peter's project, then you can study the Behistun inscription - the 6th century.
    Or a little earlier about the state of Ayas - Hayasa the 15th century BC, or cuneiform writing of Naram Surein (king of Akkad) the 24th century BC about the country of Arminia ...
    And just a little more about linguistics ... Urartu - Ararat. If a person wants to prove something scientific, then at least he must study the root of languages. This "mistake" - AR-AR-AT (AR-AR-AT, ԱՐ-ԱՐ-ԱՏ) scientifically can be easily interpreted if you know Armenian. AT is a limb that indicates a specific area. AR is the oldest self-name of the Armenian god and creator; SUN. That ist word AR-AR-AT means a place where there are many ARs. Armenian still has such words, for example, EG-EG-AT (HEK-HEK-AT, ՀԵՂ-ՀԵՂ-ԱՏ) - means a place where there is a lot of water. Also, the ancient Armenians called themselves AR or ARI. The word ARMEN is a purely Indo-European word in which there are two roots AR and MEN ... In the mother of the Indo-European language AR is, as already said, the name of the people who lived in the ARARAT country, and the word MEN is a person. I ask you not to comment if you speak on emotions ... only scientific facts and forget about Turkmenchay, just before that you will read about the Persian Shah Shah Abbas, who, during the war with Turkey, decided to create a 100 km deserted buffer zone between Turkey and Iran and for this in 16o5 by force deported the inhabitants of eastern Armenia to Iran ... for example, the city of New Jugha was created ...