Ukraine is the most failed state on the territory of the former USSR, based on the starting conditions and the results achieved so far. The presence of large territories and population in the absence of extreme climatic zones (such as the Russian Arctic or the Central Asian highlands and deserts), well-developed industry and science, a very high level of education, the most powerful armed forces, and the absence of obvious internal ethnic conflicts should have made Ukraine the most successful of 15 Post-Soviet countries ...
This is exactly what was predicted by almost all economists and political scientists at the end of 1991 - the beginning of 1992. In fact, in terms of GDP growth per capita over the post-Soviet period, Ukraine was the worst of all the 15 republics of the former USSR. Together with Moldova and Albania, it was before the beginning of the civil war among the three poorest states in Europe. During the years of independence, the country's population has decreased from 52 to 45 million people (even before the civil war and the loss of the Crimea).
The artificiality of the Ukrainian state, composed of several parts with a completely different mentality and views on history population, as well as exceptionally high levels of corruption and the complete merger of big business with political power. Throughout almost the entire post-Soviet history, two financial-industrial-political groups dominated here: Dnepropetrovsk (or Dnepropetrovsk-Kiev) and Donetsk. The main goal of both was the extraction of power rent and maximum enrichment. It is quite natural that in order to achieve these goals it was necessary to preserve, firstly, complete independence, and secondly, the territorial integrity of Ukraine. Moreover, it was much more profitable for both groupings to come closer to the EU than to Russia, since the first option allowed to legalize “honestly acquired”, and the second threatened to lose it, because Russian capital has much more resources, and complexes like the oligarchs none
Accordingly, the refusal of Yanukovych at the last moment to sign an association agreement with the EU caused an extremely negative reaction of the “Dnepropetrovsk” ones. They also reacted sharply to the fact that Yanukovych, while in office, began to create his own oligarchic group, which received the conditional name “family.” This led to the need for another large-scale redistribution of property, and precisely at that moment when Ukraine was almost completely plundered, which made it difficult to maintain at least the status quo in the relations between the already existing groups. The combination of these circumstances was the reason that the Dnepropetrovsk and Kiev oligarchs decided to organize and finance the Maidan. Since they control almost all Ukrainian media, the organization and informational support of the protest actions were not difficult tasks.
The victory of Maidan led to the fact that the Dnepropetrovsk-Kiev group came to power, not only de facto, but also de jure. One of its representatives was elected president of the country, the others headed the regions. The most famous and influential - Igor Kolomoisky became the governor of the Dnipropetrovsk region.
In connection with this, the popular propaganda thesis that “Fascists-Bandera” came to power in Ukraine sounds quite funny. An open secret is that all the far-right Ukrainian groups are financed by the aforementioned Kolomoisky, who is not just a Jew by nationality, but also an activist of Jewish organizations of the Ukrainian and even European level. It is unlikely that this person could contribute to the real coming of the Nazis to power. They needed him as insurance against Russia. Until this Maidan, his “favorite” was Oleg Tyagnibok, who heads the Svoboda party. And Yanukovych was quite happy with this, because against the background of the Nazis he looked almost like a respectable politician. During the Maidan, Kolomoisky threw out a Tyagnibok and reoriented to a more radical “Right Sector”, which became a ram that demolished Yanukovych. Then this ram had to be engaged in power “de-Russification” of Ukraine, starting, naturally, from the Crimea, where the militants of the Majlis should have become allies of the “Pravoseks” (in no case should they be identified with the Crimean Tatars as a whole) mistake). The campaign to the Crimea, which was widely advertised on a wave of victorious euphoria, guaranteed rivers of blood, for obvious reasons, ended without starting. But here happened Donbass.
Volunteers against "Voentorg"
The oligarchs from the Donetsk group (the most famous and influential of them - Rinat Akhmetov), who formed the basis of the practically defeated Party of Regions, tried to organize "controlled separatism" in the Donetsk and Lugansk regions in order to maintain their economic and partially political positions. It was with their money that from the Armed Forces of Ukraine stocks were acquired for arsenals and military equipment that suddenly appeared here, up to tanks. However, this project quickly got out of the control of the oligarchs, as volunteers from Russia, from other regions of Ukraine and even from Europe moved in droves to the Donbass. These were just volunteers (and not mercenaries, let alone military personnel of the RF Armed Forces), who were inspired by the idea of the “Russian (or Slavic) world”, and by the struggle against fascism. They formed the basis of the militia of the self-proclaimed DPR and LPR. As a result, “controlled separatism” escalated into a real civil war. In this war, the goal of the ruling Kiev oligarchy was to completely defeat the Donetsk group and seize or buy up its cheap property. Reducing prices is greatly facilitated by its destruction in the Donetsk and Lugansk regions during the hostilities. Accordingly, causing maximum damage to the infrastructure of these regions is not only permissible, but beneficial to the current Ukrainian leadership.
The most important problems of the new Kiev authorities in the conduct of the war in the Donbass were the extremely low level of combat training of the Ukrainian army and the almost complete absence of its new equipment.
However, after the collapse of the USSR, the country received such a large number of weapons and military equipment, the most modern at that time, that even despite the massive sale, the failure due to the development of the resource and poor operation, there was still a lot of equipment left, much more than in any European country - a member of NATO. On 1 in January 2014, during the exchange of data on the CFE Treaty, Ukraine declared that 2212 had tanks, 3794 BMP, BMD and BTR, 3063 SAU, towed guns and MLRS, 491 combat aircraft, 116 combat helicopters. Before the beginning of the war (that is, in the spring), it was believed that, on average, 20 – 25 was percent of the equipment available to Ukraine. However, even this is quite a lot. In addition, the equipment stored in storage is currently being restored by dismantling some of the machines for repairing others.
At the time of this writing, the losses of the Ukrainian Armed Forces were 54 tanks, 118 BMPs and BMDs, 52 BTR, 16 SAU, 8 towed guns, 11 MLRS, 9 combat and three auxiliary aircraft, five combat and six multipurpose helicopters. In addition, the 23 tank, 52 BMP and BMD, 24 BTR, 16 SAU, 17 towed guns, two MLRS were captured by the militia. Any European army with such a level of losses in such a short period of time would have lost the ability to wage war. However, as can be seen, this amounts to a few percent of the total number of Ukrainian Armed Forces equipment. In addition, an additional resource for them is the possible supply of Soviet-made equipment from Eastern European NATO countries. This technique is usually even older than that of Ukraine itself, but if the main thing is not quality, but quantity, it will not be of fundamental importance.
The main thing is that the Ukrainian Armed Forces are fighting, regardless of losses both in technology and in people, neither among their own personnel, nor among civilians (in the light of this, the talk about the “European choice of Ukraine” sounds particularly convincing). With a significant numerical superiority, which the APU has over the militia of the DPR and the LPR, this method of warfare practically ensured the victory. That is why in July-August the Ukrainian army managed to more than halve the territory controlled by the militias. And I would have achieved a final victory, if not for the "voentorg".
This attitude of the Ukrainian leadership towards people is quite natural. Firstly, objectively, the army is so poorly prepared that it simply cannot fight differently. Secondly, for oligarchs like Poroshenko or Kolomoisky, by definition, people are a consumable item, without representing the slightest value. Third, massive artillery and rocket attacks on human settlements lead to a significant reduction in the number of people disloyal to Kiev: they either die or flee to Russia. This allows the ruling group to completely and finally solve the problem of the country's mental and political split into conventional “west” and “east”. Fourth, the massive death of military personnel, that is, young healthy men, many of whom are ideologically motivated, becomes a guarantee for the Ukrainian authorities from the new Maidan. He simply will not be organized. First of all, those Nazis who came to power serve as cannon fodder. Some of them have already understood this and began to ask rhetorical questions on social networks such as: “Are they being deliberately being sent for slaughter?”. Kiev is not afraid of international condemnation because it has the full political support of the West.
At the same time, it must be admitted that the overwhelming majority of the population of the Donetsk and Lugansk regions do not support any of the parties to the conflict and passively expects who will win. Those who are actively dissatisfied with the new Kiev authorities prefer to flee to Russia, but not to fight for the DPR and the LPR. In the ranks of the militia, the number of local residents is small and it’s not so much ideological fighters as those who avenge relatives and friends killed during senseless shelling of cities.
Under the rule of surrealism
It should be noted that the extremely high effectiveness of anti-Russian propaganda in the Ukrainian media, which, as mentioned above, is completely controlled by the oligarchs. At the moment, from the point of view of public opinion, Ukraine is undoubtedly the most anti-Russian country in the world. In this sense, the split into "east" and "west" is almost overcome, the most implacable departed to Russia (either with the Crimea, or "on their own"). Even those citizens of Ukraine who are dissatisfied with mobilization and high losses in the Donbass, consider the Kremlin to be the main culprit of the events, and if they make claims to the leadership of their country, it is only because it is waging war ineffectively. Thanks to this, the Kiev authorities managed to create a situation where any disgruntled is declared “Putin’s agent”.
It should be noted here that the myth of "fraternal Ukraine" remains one of the most stable in modern Russia to this day. In fact, precisely because the neighboring state is fraternal genetically and mentally, it cannot be Moscow even just politically friendly. Leonid Kuchma was the most pro-Russian of all Ukrainian presidents. However, it was he who wrote the book "Ukraine - not Russia." This is the most important ideological installation of any Kiev authorities. If Ukraine constantly emphasizes the fact of "fraternity" with Russia, then the population will naturally have a question: why are we different countries then? The independence of Ukraine is independence precisely and specifically from Russia, this fact is obvious to all. And absolutely all of the main political forces of present-day Ukraine, including the “pro-Russian” Party of Regions, have always stood for its independence and territorial integrity, because no one will ever refuse from power and money extracted from the power rent. All 23 of the year of independence here was carried out tough anti-Russian propaganda, which we simply did not notice.
Moreover, the deeper Ukraine collapsed, the stronger the frustration of the population became, which was categorically not ready to admit that it was responsible for the situation in their own country (especially since the elections were always completely free). Therefore, according to the established historical tradition, the “Muscovites” became guilty of everything, although until the current Maidan, Russia only meaninglessly and wordlessly subsidized Ukraine for huge sums, without receiving anything in return.
Now many people here are surprised that Ukrainians believe in the propaganda of oligarchic TV channels, although their lies have reached a surrealistic scale. There is really nothing to be surprised about. First, the soil was prepared long ago. Secondly, the point is again that Ukrainians are absolutely not ready to face the truth. The Maidan of 2013 – 2014 winter passed under the slogan “New faces in power and no oligarchs”. Moreover, the Ukrainian "creative class" sincerely believed that he fought for it and won. However, according to the results of the “victory”, not a single new person appeared in power, and the oligarchs transferred their power from de facto to de jure. And the improvements following the results of the Maidan did not happen in absolutely nothing, while the deterioration in almost everything. And the “creative class” who achieved all this will pay for its “victory” in the best case with its material condition, and in the worst with its health and life. It is psychologically impossible for the overwhelming majority of people to recognize this, which is why oligarchic propaganda is so successful.
The ceasefire of Poroshenko knocked out the Kremlin, most likely threatening to confiscate its assets in the territory of the Russian Federation (the current president of Ukraine, despite promises, is not going to part with them). At the same time, Kiev does not need peace, it needs a war to which everything can be written off and which will ensure the seizure of Donetsk property. Militiamen who owned the military initiative at the time of the conclusion of a truce, the world also does not need anything (but Moscow is pressing them as well). Therefore, there are big doubts that it is for a long time.
In Russia, the opinion is very popular that in the fall and winter Ukraine is expected to have an “economic collapse and a new Maidan”. These hopes are completely illusory and unrealizable. Russia-USSR after the Civil War, Germany and Japan after the Second World War, South Korea after the Korean War experienced a complete economic collapse with a fall in GDP by more than 90 percent relative to the pre-war one. This, however, not only did not lead to the death of states, but they quickly revived, and almost without internal shocks. Of course, Ukraine will never become neither the USSR, nor Germany, nor Japan, nor South Korea, but the fall in its GDP this year will not exceed 15 – 20 percent. This is not a collapse, especially since the country did not flourish even before the current events began.
New Maidan will not be, because, firstly, the Ukrainians did not live well anyway to make a revolution because of further deterioration of the situation, secondly, state propaganda very successfully represents Russia as the culprit of all problems, and unhappy with its agents, Thirdly, the potential strike force of the Maidan, that is, young healthy men, dies in significant numbers in the war in the Donbas.
The most important thing is that the Maidan was organized by the oligarchs, they also provided him with funding and media support. Now the oligarchs are categorically against the Maidan, therefore, there is no one for him and nothing to organize. Individual spontaneous performances of a disaffected population, if they occur at all, will be simply dispersed with the help of water jets, which is very effective during the cold season.
Only two things can threaten the current Kiev regime: a serious quarrel between Poroshenko and Kolomoisky and a riot in the army if it comes to the winter campaign.
The Ukrainian catastrophe is fully originated within the country. But, of course, external players could not take advantage of this. So it was and always will be in world history.