Military Review

But Donbass happened

47
The artificiality of the Ukrainian state became the main cause of the civil war.

Ukraine is the most failed state on the territory of the former USSR, based on the starting conditions and the results achieved so far. The presence of large territories and population in the absence of extreme climatic zones (such as the Russian Arctic or the Central Asian highlands and deserts), well-developed industry and science, a very high level of education, the most powerful armed forces, and the absence of obvious internal ethnic conflicts should have made Ukraine the most successful of 15 Post-Soviet countries ...

This is exactly what was predicted by almost all economists and political scientists at the end of 1991 - the beginning of 1992. In fact, in terms of GDP growth per capita over the post-Soviet period, Ukraine was the worst of all the 15 republics of the former USSR. Together with Moldova and Albania, it was before the beginning of the civil war among the three poorest states in Europe. During the years of independence, the country's population has decreased from 52 to 45 million people (even before the civil war and the loss of the Crimea).

The artificiality of the Ukrainian state, composed of several parts with a completely different mentality and views on history population, as well as exceptionally high levels of corruption and the complete merger of big business with political power. Throughout almost the entire post-Soviet history, two financial-industrial-political groups dominated here: Dnepropetrovsk (or Dnepropetrovsk-Kiev) and Donetsk. The main goal of both was the extraction of power rent and maximum enrichment. It is quite natural that in order to achieve these goals it was necessary to preserve, firstly, complete independence, and secondly, the territorial integrity of Ukraine. Moreover, it was much more profitable for both groupings to come closer to the EU than to Russia, since the first option allowed to legalize “honestly acquired”, and the second threatened to lose it, because Russian capital has much more resources, and complexes like the oligarchs none

Accordingly, the refusal of Yanukovych at the last moment to sign an association agreement with the EU caused an extremely negative reaction of the “Dnepropetrovsk” ones. They also reacted sharply to the fact that Yanukovych, while in office, began to create his own oligarchic group, which received the conditional name “family.” This led to the need for another large-scale redistribution of property, and precisely at that moment when Ukraine was almost completely plundered, which made it difficult to maintain at least the status quo in the relations between the already existing groups. The combination of these circumstances was the reason that the Dnepropetrovsk and Kiev oligarchs decided to organize and finance the Maidan. Since they control almost all Ukrainian media, the organization and informational support of the protest actions were not difficult tasks.

The victory of Maidan led to the fact that the Dnepropetrovsk-Kiev group came to power, not only de facto, but also de jure. One of its representatives was elected president of the country, the others headed the regions. The most famous and influential - Igor Kolomoisky became the governor of the Dnipropetrovsk region.

In connection with this, the popular propaganda thesis that “Fascists-Bandera” came to power in Ukraine sounds quite funny. An open secret is that all the far-right Ukrainian groups are financed by the aforementioned Kolomoisky, who is not just a Jew by nationality, but also an activist of Jewish organizations of the Ukrainian and even European level. It is unlikely that this person could contribute to the real coming of the Nazis to power. They needed him as insurance against Russia. Until this Maidan, his “favorite” was Oleg Tyagnibok, who heads the Svoboda party. And Yanukovych was quite happy with this, because against the background of the Nazis he looked almost like a respectable politician. During the Maidan, Kolomoisky threw out a Tyagnibok and reoriented to a more radical “Right Sector”, which became a ram that demolished Yanukovych. Then this ram had to be engaged in power “de-Russification” of Ukraine, starting, naturally, from the Crimea, where the militants of the Majlis should have become allies of the “Pravoseks” (in no case should they be identified with the Crimean Tatars as a whole) mistake). The campaign to the Crimea, which was widely advertised on a wave of victorious euphoria, guaranteed rivers of blood, for obvious reasons, ended without starting. But here happened Donbass.

Volunteers against "Voentorg"

The oligarchs from the Donetsk group (the most famous and influential of them - Rinat Akhmetov), ​​who formed the basis of the practically defeated Party of Regions, tried to organize "controlled separatism" in the Donetsk and Lugansk regions in order to maintain their economic and partially political positions. It was with their money that from the Armed Forces of Ukraine stocks were acquired for arsenals and military equipment that suddenly appeared here, up to tanks. However, this project quickly got out of the control of the oligarchs, as volunteers from Russia, from other regions of Ukraine and even from Europe moved in droves to the Donbass. These were just volunteers (and not mercenaries, let alone military personnel of the RF Armed Forces), who were inspired by the idea of ​​the “Russian (or Slavic) world”, and by the struggle against fascism. They formed the basis of the militia of the self-proclaimed DPR and LPR. As a result, “controlled separatism” escalated into a real civil war. In this war, the goal of the ruling Kiev oligarchy was to completely defeat the Donetsk group and seize or buy up its cheap property. Reducing prices is greatly facilitated by its destruction in the Donetsk and Lugansk regions during the hostilities. Accordingly, causing maximum damage to the infrastructure of these regions is not only permissible, but beneficial to the current Ukrainian leadership.

But Donbass happened


The most important problems of the new Kiev authorities in the conduct of the war in the Donbass were the extremely low level of combat training of the Ukrainian army and the almost complete absence of its new equipment.

However, after the collapse of the USSR, the country received such a large number of weapons and military equipment, the most modern at that time, that even despite the massive sale, the failure due to the development of the resource and poor operation, there was still a lot of equipment left, much more than in any European country - a member of NATO. On 1 in January 2014, during the exchange of data on the CFE Treaty, Ukraine declared that 2212 had tanks, 3794 BMP, BMD and BTR, 3063 SAU, towed guns and MLRS, 491 combat aircraft, 116 combat helicopters. Before the beginning of the war (that is, in the spring), it was believed that, on average, 20 – 25 was percent of the equipment available to Ukraine. However, even this is quite a lot. In addition, the equipment stored in storage is currently being restored by dismantling some of the machines for repairing others.

At the time of this writing, the losses of the Ukrainian Armed Forces were 54 tanks, 118 BMPs and BMDs, 52 BTR, 16 SAU, 8 towed guns, 11 MLRS, 9 combat and three auxiliary aircraft, five combat and six multipurpose helicopters. In addition, the 23 tank, 52 BMP and BMD, 24 BTR, 16 SAU, 17 towed guns, two MLRS were captured by the militia. Any European army with such a level of losses in such a short period of time would have lost the ability to wage war. However, as can be seen, this amounts to a few percent of the total number of Ukrainian Armed Forces equipment. In addition, an additional resource for them is the possible supply of Soviet-made equipment from Eastern European NATO countries. This technique is usually even older than that of Ukraine itself, but if the main thing is not quality, but quantity, it will not be of fundamental importance.

The main thing is that the Ukrainian Armed Forces are fighting, regardless of losses both in technology and in people, neither among their own personnel, nor among civilians (in the light of this, the talk about the “European choice of Ukraine” sounds particularly convincing). With a significant numerical superiority, which the APU has over the militia of the DPR and the LPR, this method of warfare practically ensured the victory. That is why in July-August the Ukrainian army managed to more than halve the territory controlled by the militias. And I would have achieved a final victory, if not for the "voentorg".

This attitude of the Ukrainian leadership towards people is quite natural. Firstly, objectively, the army is so poorly prepared that it simply cannot fight differently. Secondly, for oligarchs like Poroshenko or Kolomoisky, by definition, people are a consumable item, without representing the slightest value. Third, massive artillery and rocket attacks on human settlements lead to a significant reduction in the number of people disloyal to Kiev: they either die or flee to Russia. This allows the ruling group to completely and finally solve the problem of the country's mental and political split into conventional “west” and “east”. Fourth, the massive death of military personnel, that is, young healthy men, many of whom are ideologically motivated, becomes a guarantee for the Ukrainian authorities from the new Maidan. He simply will not be organized. First of all, those Nazis who came to power serve as cannon fodder. Some of them have already understood this and began to ask rhetorical questions on social networks such as: “Are they being deliberately being sent for slaughter?”. Kiev is not afraid of international condemnation because it has the full political support of the West.

At the same time, it must be admitted that the overwhelming majority of the population of the Donetsk and Lugansk regions do not support any of the parties to the conflict and passively expects who will win. Those who are actively dissatisfied with the new Kiev authorities prefer to flee to Russia, but not to fight for the DPR and the LPR. In the ranks of the militia, the number of local residents is small and it’s not so much ideological fighters as those who avenge relatives and friends killed during senseless shelling of cities.

Under the rule of surrealism

It should be noted that the extremely high effectiveness of anti-Russian propaganda in the Ukrainian media, which, as mentioned above, is completely controlled by the oligarchs. At the moment, from the point of view of public opinion, Ukraine is undoubtedly the most anti-Russian country in the world. In this sense, the split into "east" and "west" is almost overcome, the most implacable departed to Russia (either with the Crimea, or "on their own"). Even those citizens of Ukraine who are dissatisfied with mobilization and high losses in the Donbass, consider the Kremlin to be the main culprit of the events, and if they make claims to the leadership of their country, it is only because it is waging war ineffectively. Thanks to this, the Kiev authorities managed to create a situation where any disgruntled is declared “Putin’s agent”.

It should be noted here that the myth of "fraternal Ukraine" remains one of the most stable in modern Russia to this day. In fact, precisely because the neighboring state is fraternal genetically and mentally, it cannot be Moscow even just politically friendly. Leonid Kuchma was the most pro-Russian of all Ukrainian presidents. However, it was he who wrote the book "Ukraine - not Russia." This is the most important ideological installation of any Kiev authorities. If Ukraine constantly emphasizes the fact of "fraternity" with Russia, then the population will naturally have a question: why are we different countries then? The independence of Ukraine is independence precisely and specifically from Russia, this fact is obvious to all. And absolutely all of the main political forces of present-day Ukraine, including the “pro-Russian” Party of Regions, have always stood for its independence and territorial integrity, because no one will ever refuse from power and money extracted from the power rent. All 23 of the year of independence here was carried out tough anti-Russian propaganda, which we simply did not notice.

Moreover, the deeper Ukraine collapsed, the stronger the frustration of the population became, which was categorically not ready to admit that it was responsible for the situation in their own country (especially since the elections were always completely free). Therefore, according to the established historical tradition, the “Muscovites” became guilty of everything, although until the current Maidan, Russia only meaninglessly and wordlessly subsidized Ukraine for huge sums, without receiving anything in return.

Now many people here are surprised that Ukrainians believe in the propaganda of oligarchic TV channels, although their lies have reached a surrealistic scale. There is really nothing to be surprised about. First, the soil was prepared long ago. Secondly, the point is again that Ukrainians are absolutely not ready to face the truth. The Maidan of 2013 – 2014 winter passed under the slogan “New faces in power and no oligarchs”. Moreover, the Ukrainian "creative class" sincerely believed that he fought for it and won. However, according to the results of the “victory”, not a single new person appeared in power, and the oligarchs transferred their power from de facto to de jure. And the improvements following the results of the Maidan did not happen in absolutely nothing, while the deterioration in almost everything. And the “creative class” who achieved all this will pay for its “victory” in the best case with its material condition, and in the worst with its health and life. It is psychologically impossible for the overwhelming majority of people to recognize this, which is why oligarchic propaganda is so successful.

The ceasefire of Poroshenko knocked out the Kremlin, most likely threatening to confiscate its assets in the territory of the Russian Federation (the current president of Ukraine, despite promises, is not going to part with them). At the same time, Kiev does not need peace, it needs a war to which everything can be written off and which will ensure the seizure of Donetsk property. Militiamen who owned the military initiative at the time of the conclusion of a truce, the world also does not need anything (but Moscow is pressing them as well). Therefore, there are big doubts that it is for a long time.

In Russia, the opinion is very popular that in the fall and winter Ukraine is expected to have an “economic collapse and a new Maidan”. These hopes are completely illusory and unrealizable. Russia-USSR after the Civil War, Germany and Japan after the Second World War, South Korea after the Korean War experienced a complete economic collapse with a fall in GDP by more than 90 percent relative to the pre-war one. This, however, not only did not lead to the death of states, but they quickly revived, and almost without internal shocks. Of course, Ukraine will never become neither the USSR, nor Germany, nor Japan, nor South Korea, but the fall in its GDP this year will not exceed 15 – 20 percent. This is not a collapse, especially since the country did not flourish even before the current events began.

New Maidan will not be, because, firstly, the Ukrainians did not live well anyway to make a revolution because of further deterioration of the situation, secondly, state propaganda very successfully represents Russia as the culprit of all problems, and unhappy with its agents, Thirdly, the potential strike force of the Maidan, that is, young healthy men, dies in significant numbers in the war in the Donbas.

The most important thing is that the Maidan was organized by the oligarchs, they also provided him with funding and media support. Now the oligarchs are categorically against the Maidan, therefore, there is no one for him and nothing to organize. Individual spontaneous performances of a disaffected population, if they occur at all, will be simply dispersed with the help of water jets, which is very effective during the cold season.

Only two things can threaten the current Kiev regime: a serious quarrel between Poroshenko and Kolomoisky and a riot in the army if it comes to the winter campaign.

The Ukrainian catastrophe is fully originated within the country. But, of course, external players could not take advantage of this. So it was and always will be in world history.
Author:
47 comments
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  1. volot-voin
    volot-voin 17 September 2014 14: 08
    +15
    Donbass is a spear of justice in the lying rotting carcass of Russophobic Ukraine. New Russia is the hope of the entire Russian world.
    1. MSA
      MSA 17 September 2014 14: 09
      +5
      I would even say - a bone in the throat ...
      1. Момент
        Момент 17 September 2014 14: 23
        +2
        Someone must confront the Maidan. And it became the Donbass. The people of Donbass are not zombified as the rest of Ukraine. But Kharkov’s position is not clear.
        1. Oldwiser
          Oldwiser 17 September 2014 16: 21
          0
          crushed by the press of terror of the Gestapo-SBU
    2. saag
      saag 17 September 2014 14: 20
      0
      Quote: volot-voin
      New Russia is the hope of the entire Russian world.


      "... The Kremlin knocked out the ceasefire from Poroshenko, most likely threatening to confiscate his assets on the territory of the Russian Federation (the current president of Ukraine is not going to part with them, contrary to promises). At the same time, Kiev does not need peace, it needs a war that can be blamed on everything and which will ensure the seizure of Donetsk property. The militias, who at the time of the conclusion of the armistice, owned the military initiative, also do not need peace (but Moscow is putting pressure on them). "

      Whose hope is it?
      1. nvv
        nvv 17 September 2014 14: 36
        0
        .. should have made Ukraine the most successful of the 15 post-Soviet countries ... ..... I would have been very surprised if the mattresses would have started to fight not from Ukraine but, for example, from .... KOMI.
        1. ZVEROBOY
          ZVEROBOY 17 September 2014 16: 25
          +2
          I would be very surprised too
        2. ZVEROBOY
          ZVEROBOY 17 September 2014 16: 26
          +2
          Hi hi
          1. nvv
            nvv 17 September 2014 17: 37
            0
            Oh you radish !!!!!!!
      2. SS68SS
        SS68SS 17 September 2014 15: 02
        0
        ... according to the established historical tradition, the "" became guilty of everything, although before the current Maidan, Russia only senselessly and wordlessly subsidized Ukraine for huge amounts without receiving anything ....
    3. Nevsky_ZU
      Nevsky_ZU 17 September 2014 14: 37
      +9
      A competent report on Ukraine, perhaps I agree. Especially for this part:

      In Russia, the opinion that “in the fall and winter Ukraine is expected to have an“ economic collapse and a new Maidan ”is very popular. These hopes are completely illusory and unrealizable.


      Also pleased with the conclusion:

      In this sense, the split into “east” and “west” has practically been overcome; the most irreconcilable have left for Russia (either together with Crimea, or “on their own”)


      Where were you, oh wise author Alexander Khramchikhin, who so academically painted the text of the article when I beat the bells in 2012 and in 2013?

      August 2013, quote from my article:

      This is my last article on the “Military Review” from a series devoted to issues and problems of the crisis of self-identification of Russians in Ukraine through the eyes of a Russian-speaking citizen of Ukraine. The Russian world is retreating. I sincerely hope that someone will continue to write on this topic more seriously, professionally, scientifically and substantively. And the problem is very urgent.


      While the Russian media are distressing about the ceremonial reburial of the remains of the “warriors” of the SS division “Galicia” in Western Ukraine with the participation of German attributes of the SS and Wehrmacht, the processes have gone much further and even closer to the borders of Russia.


      http://topwar.ru/31807-storonniki-divizii-ss-galichina-uzhe-gotovyatsya-pereyti-

      dnepr-esche-odin-russkoyazychnyy-gorod-ukrainy-pal.html
      1. Altona
        Altona 17 September 2014 17: 32
        +1
        Quote: Nevsky_ZU
        Where were you, oh wise author Alexander Khramchikhin, who so academically painted the text of the article when I beat the bells in 2012 and in 2013?

        -------------------
        After the fact, we are all very smart and can write the most detailed articles with subsequent vanging ...
  2. MSA
    MSA 17 September 2014 14: 08
    +5
    Only two things can threaten the current Kiev regime: a serious quarrel between Poroshenko and Kolomoisky and a riot in the army if it comes to the winter campaign.

    And apparently it will come to her.
  3. ohotnik101
    ohotnik101 17 September 2014 14: 09
    +3
    In the spring, we will count who thaws ...
  4. WYCCTPUJIA
    WYCCTPUJIA 17 September 2014 14: 10
    +3
    The Ukrainian catastrophe is fully originated within the country. But, of course, external players could not take advantage of this. So it was and always will be in world history.

    I completely agree with the author of the article. But still, I hope we can eradicate the entire infection from Ukraine.
    1. MSA
      MSA 17 September 2014 14: 11
      +1
      Of course we can, but time will pass and people will die, but in another way.
    2. a52333
      a52333 17 September 2014 14: 27
      +1
      . The artificiality of the Ukrainian state, made up of several parts with completely different mentality, contributed to such a failure.

      I do not quite agree with the author. A different mentality is not such a reason.
      Take for example the Russian Federation, the Yakuts and Caucasians, Cossacks and Pomors. We still have a mosaic ... But! When, from the first day, a course is not taken for creation, augmentation of what their fate made rich. No one bothered with the slow erasure of the small contradictions between the east and the west, but started (with the filing of the west) nonsense, opposition, and other nonsense.
      The result is on the face.
  5. FACKtoREAL
    FACKtoREAL 17 September 2014 14: 11
    +15
    Have you heard the NEWS?! .. good
    As stated Scottish Prime Minister MaKsyonov ...
    Scotland after the referendum will apply for joining Russia!
    Order during the referendum will ensure scottish guard Colonel Mack Girkin
    laughing
    1. MSA
      MSA 17 September 2014 14: 14
      0
      Then they definitely can’t see independence.
    2. FACKtoREAL
      FACKtoREAL 17 September 2014 14: 46
      +4
      selling movie script "Chocolate eye"
      J. Bond receives a task from Her Majesty Liza's pro-grandmother to Tear down the process of Scotland's secession from Great Britain ...
      As assistants, two partners were seconded to him - Lyazhko @ SemEnchenka
      both are artificially "leaky" ...
      the first - a member, the second - "wounded" ... a member of the National Guard
      The intrigue is twisted when it gets in their way, previously unknown to anyone, simple Scottish Colonel Mac gearken!
      bully
    3. bubla5
      bubla5 17 September 2014 14: 52
      +1
      Scotland will never get out of London's control; everyone will buy it.
      1. FACKtoREAL
        FACKtoREAL 17 September 2014 15: 03
        0
        Quote: bubla5
        Scotland will never get out of control of London, everyone will buy

        then why all this boil with a referendum ?? request
        1. tank64rus
          tank64rus 17 September 2014 18: 02
          +1
          Yes, so that a little dough would be taken from the British, otherwise we’ll leave. Something reminds.
        2. tank64rus
          tank64rus 17 September 2014 18: 02
          0
          Yes, so that a little dough would be taken from the British, otherwise we’ll leave. Something reminds.
  6. Neighbor
    Neighbor 17 September 2014 14: 16
    +1
    [quote] [The most important thing is that the oligarchs organized the Maidan, they also provided him with funding and media support. Now the oligarchs are categorically against the Maidan, therefore, there is no one to organize it on. Some spontaneous performances of the discontented population, if any, will simply be dispersed with the help of water cannons, which is very effective in the cold season.
    / quote] So now they send to their meaningless death their already unnecessary tool-maydanutyh. Maidanutye are now dangerous for the oligarchs.
    1. doctor
      doctor 17 September 2014 14: 23
      0
      It is much more dangerous for the oligarchs not maydaunas, but sober-minded people. And such in Ukraine 95%
      1. samoletil18
        samoletil18 17 September 2014 15: 27
        +2
        Quote: Doctor
        It is much more dangerous for the oligarchs not maydaunas, but sober-minded people. And such in Ukraine 95%

        If you look at television, information resources and social networks, then 95% of drunken people, mixed with frightened and simply embittered.
      2. JIaIIoTb
        JIaIIoTb 17 September 2014 15: 39
        0
        Quote: Doctor
        It is much more dangerous for the oligarchs not maydaunas, but sober-minded people. And such in Ukraine 95%

        Doctor. Did you count them yourself? And how did you establish their sobriety?
        Based on everything that happens in Ukraine, sober-minded people there are exactly the opposite of what you wrote. The rest find a way out in the twilight zone of consciousness or simply live in a fantasy world. And so that they are lit up with sobriety, either long-term treatment or shock therapy is needed.
    2. cumastra1
      cumastra1 17 September 2014 14: 54
      +1
      rams walk in a row
      beat the drums
      skin for them give
      the rams themselves
      I don’t remember who wrote it, but it very accurately reflects the historical moment ...
      1. fedorovith
        fedorovith 17 September 2014 18: 59
        0
        Song of V.S. Vysotsky
  7. Lumumba
    Lumumba 17 September 2014 14: 19
    +3
    One of the few sensible analyzes. I also don’t think that in winter in / in Ukraine there will be a revolution and collapse. Dill is a former Russian, in which our mentality has not yet been completely killed. It’s just that he won’t be lame, even in winter. Unless of course someone does not finance.
  8. avt
    avt 17 September 2014 14: 23
    +3
    ,, Ukraine is the most failed state on the territory of the former USSR, if we proceed from the starting conditions and the result achieved at the moment. The presence of large territories and population in the absence of extreme natural and climatic zones (such as the Russian Arctic or the Central Asian highlands and deserts), well-developed industry and science, a very high level of education, the most powerful armed forces, the absence of obvious internal ethnic conflicts should have made Ukraine the most successful of 15 post-Soviet countries ... "----- request Fuck you will prove not only to the banderlog and Svidomo ykram, but also to the Ukrainians who have received a Soviet education, all the same, like Oles Buzina, will cling to the fact that just a little bit and there will be a peremogy and Ukraine is not dead, you need to adjust the laws a little, and Porosenko - ,, thinking "prezik and chosen by them, not appointed by the amers. The more supporters of this delusion, the tougher the Ruin on the Ukraine 1991 project will be and the harder it will be to get out of it. Well, in what form and what territory will the receiver have The project “Ukraine1991” no longer depends on the “elites” and the “authorities.” The players of the Great Game will decide, since there is nothing even close to the Bolshevik spill of 1917 and even more so the later Stalinist people's commissars.
  9. dima-fesko
    dima-fesko 17 September 2014 14: 24
    +1
    It is intelligible! There is logic in thinking. In this case, it must be noted that somewhere everything was organized like that. But something else torments me. Despite all the rhetoric of the Ukrainian media and the "legitimate government", the economy of the outskirts is falling into the abyss. Individual spontaneous demonstrations of the dissatisfied population, if they occur at all, will simply be dispersed with the help of water cannons, which is very effective in the cold season (author). But this situation cannot continue indefinitely (summer will come). The crisis of the economy will lead - you want to Maidan, you want to revolution. So a change of power (even regardless of the fate of the Donbass) is inevitable. Well, no one will bet on fascists, they have already done their job, they will be used up by both!
    1. 23 region
      23 region 17 September 2014 14: 40
      0
      Quote: dima-fesko
      But this situation cannot continue indefinitely (summer will come). The crisis of the economy will lead - you want to Maidan, you want to revolution. So a change of power (even regardless of the fate of the Donbass) is inevitable.

      It's time to rename the groundhog day on the day of ukra.
  10. sever.56
    sever.56 17 September 2014 14: 26
    +1
    http://topwar.ru/uploads/images/2014/111/gtez369.jpg
  11. pink
    pink 17 September 2014 14: 29
    0
    I do not believe the author about the fact that there will be no Maidan in winter, as well as the fact that in Lugansk and Donetsk everyone is waiting for someone to win ...
  12. fridge
    fridge 17 September 2014 14: 33
    0
    Politicians unite nations, and politicians disunite. We say that a person living in Kamchatka has no contradictions with the zapadents, but if they decide in Moscow and Kiev that they have them, they will be pushed together by their foreheads and they will kill each other. It always has been.
  13. kaban0072
    kaban0072 17 September 2014 14: 34
    +7
    this is how our guys over the hill promote OUR truth
    1. FACKtoREAL
      FACKtoREAL 17 September 2014 17: 47
      +1
      WHAT good Russian-speaking youth in Germany is right! good
      I didn’t even expect SUCH reaction and support from them ...
      TAKING OFF MY HAT ! hi
  14. RUSS
    RUSS 17 September 2014 14: 34
    +4
    Russia-the USSR after the Civil War, Germany and Japan after the Second World War, South Korea after the Korean War experienced a complete economic collapse with a drop in GDP of more than 90 percent relative to the pre-war period.

    The author did not correctly compare today's Ukraine with these (Japan, Germany, the USSR and Korea) countries. We remember what, how much and how much it cost us to get out of the pit after the Civil, I am afraid that Ukraine will not be able to get out all, but only in parts, and even then each part is different.
  15. Mooh
    Mooh 17 September 2014 14: 37
    +4
    The article made such a serious impression that it was useful to find out who the author is. I wish I didn’t do it. The author is an analyst of some liberal non-governmental structure, and accordingly works with open sources of information. Known for its gloomy and unfulfilled predictions and a tendency to juggle facts.
    Conclusion: it’s written well and beautifully, but you shouldn’t believe it, it is likely that the whole article is sucked out of your finger.
  16. Igarr
    Igarr 17 September 2014 14: 39
    +2
    Yes, it's sad.
    From all this analysis, only one thing is clear - the number of Ukrainian prostitutes will increase significantly.
    "The ghost of Lues roams Europe. And in Russia it stands on the highways."
    It’s sad.
  17. surovts.valery
    surovts.valery 17 September 2014 14: 39
    +5
    In Russia, the opinion is very popular that in the fall and winter Ukraine is expected to have an “economic collapse and a new Maidan”. These hopes are completely illusory and unrealizable. Russia-USSR after the Civil War, Germany and Japan after the Second World War, South Korea after the Korean War experienced a complete economic collapse with a fall in GDP by more than 90 percent relative to the pre-war one. This, however, not only did not lead to the death of states, but they quickly revived, and almost without internal shocks. Of course, Ukraine will never become neither the USSR, nor Germany, nor Japan, nor South Korea, but the fall in its GDP this year will not exceed 15 – 20 percent. This is not a collapse, especially since the country did not flourish even before the current events began.

    I do not agree here. Just Russia and Germany and Japan and South Korea, as states in the old sense, perished. You could say softer - reformatted. Moreover, with the exception of Russia-the USSR, everything is under the influence of an external force and within the limits permitted by this force. Yes, and there were enough internal shocks. Comrade Khramchikhin is inexcusable not to know this.
    Well, in Ukraine in the near future, you can wait for anything you want, in the first place - the collapse of the current model of statehood. And no anti-Russian propaganda can resist this, all the more based on outright lies.
  18. Mercenary
    Mercenary 17 September 2014 14: 55
    0
    Competent article! It's a shame the misunderstanding of the situation in Moscow:
    1 Incorrect attempts to allegedly influence the situation (in any case, Russia will be to blame)
    2 Complete inability to financially and economically control the situation (Gazprom is a national treasure) Debt 5,38 billion.
    2.a pay at least some and continue deliveries
    2.b Agree on any prices for gas supplies (at a loss to themselves. Russians will pay extra)
    3. The lack of ideological influence on the situation. (What they probably know is Bandera’s fascists only. Ukrainians do not know about it)
  19. Black
    Black 17 September 2014 15: 02
    +2
    The Ukrainian catastrophe is completely generated domestically.
    I do not agree with the author. Oligarchy - parsley in the hands of the West. Threads, but what kind of strings are there, ROPES !!!! - stretch across the ocean. Staplers did not take advantage of the situation; they created it.
    Otherwise, everything is correct. Nothing there will collapse and not be seen (and if anyone tries, they will tear the Maidan. If the wave goes, then this is just a sign that Kolomoisky is putting out Piglet.
  20. Grzegoš
    Grzegoš 17 September 2014 15: 07
    +1
    Of course, their brains were completely blown away. Previously, there seemed to be an adequate person, (by the example of his own acquaintances), but now I don’t even want to engage in polemics - bile is splashing.
  21. Mountain shooter
    Mountain shooter 17 September 2014 15: 07
    +1
    Good analysis. The article is definitely a plus. There is no one to finance the Maidan, therefore, it will not be. But rebellion in the army is quite possible.
  22. Jackyun
    Jackyun 17 September 2014 15: 07
    +7
    Russia-the USSR after the Civil War, Germany and Japan after the Second World War, South Korea after the Korean War experienced a complete economic collapse with a drop in GDP of more than 90 percent relative to the pre-war period. This, however, not only did not lead to the death of states, but they quickly revived

    This statement, in my opinion, is not entirely correct.
    After the Civil War, Russia was completely destroyed. Industry zero, self-sustaining agriculture. It was possible to get out of the collapse only by tough unity of command and clever economic policy (NEP). Neither the first nor the second is observed in modern Ukraine.
    Japan and Germany after World War II were occupied by the victors. Moreover, for the United States at that time it was important to have economically strong but controlled allies near the USSR. Which was done. Billions mined in the war were invested in rebuilding the economies of Germany (the Marshall Plan) and Japan, which, due to their control, returned with the thorium in the medium term. Nobody will invest billions in Ukraine, there is economically strong and, at the same time, Europe under control.
    The same can be said of Korea. Only this counterbalance was built for China, the military power of which even then caused serious concern to the United States. A powerful outpost cannot be built on the basis of a half-dead state; it is poorly controlled.
    Thus, the West does not need an economically strong Ukraine. Since, due to its geographical location, material and human resources, with a smart approach, Ukraine is able to compete strongly with the West, and having risen economically, is able to become truly independent, the West will not invest in the Ukrainian economy. Schizophrenic nationalism, the opposition of the West and the East, stupid, economically illiterate, but controlled leaders, a stunned population, this is what the West quite suits. Ukraine as a raw material colony with a poor population.
    However, now the process has not gone according to plan. Russia was supposed to feed and sponsor Ukraine, but there was a bust with nationalism and Russophobia and Russia stopped feeding. Moreover, Russia dared to exert economic pressure on Europe, and not unsuccessfully. Russia closes markets for Ukraine, energy problems, the fact that Western markets are closed, all this leads to an economic collapse and a spontaneous popular explosion, which threatens the West with a loss of control. So, the next Maidan is not so ghostly. They will be organized with the money of the same oligarchs and under the strict guidance of the West. Otherwise, it’s not possible to hold back. B. Cattle will become a Man. And this is similar to the West of death.
  23. samoletil18
    samoletil18 17 September 2014 15: 53
    +1
    Finally! About the winter! And then, okay in VO (here they like to fake the situation for communication more than they really hope), but also in the analysis of solid resources: winter will come - and the end of Ukraine. I could not understand: why? Gas from Russia all summer, the troops die free of charge in the slaughterhouse from the Union, the assets of the oligarchs work even in Russia, and mutual trade does not stop. EU loans throws up.
    Neither the EU nor Russia are interested in the collapse of Ukraine: who will turn debts?
    Only personally, I, in any way, on the side of the militia, like all of Russia, which forces the Russian leadership to support ours.
  24. igor1981
    igor1981 17 September 2014 16: 00
    0
    This is one of the best articles on VO. Everything is written correctly, clearly, carefully relying on the logic of common sense. I put the article plus, if I could put 100 pluses. hi
  25. Lyton
    Lyton 17 September 2014 16: 14
    +1
    Quote: MooH
    The article made such a serious impression that it was useful to find out who the author is. I wish I didn’t do it. The author is an analyst of some liberal non-governmental structure, and accordingly works with open sources of information. Known for its gloomy and unfulfilled predictions and a tendency to juggle facts.
    Conclusion: it’s written well and beautifully, but you shouldn’t believe it, it is likely that the whole article is sucked out of your finger.

    In, it’s the one Alexander Khramchikhin who, the day before the Georgian invasion of Ossetia, assured everyone that there would be no war with Georgia, it turned out the opposite, therefore we draw conclusions.
  26. Plamenvarna
    Plamenvarna 17 September 2014 16: 20
    +1
    Whether it beats Maidan or beats ...
    It doesn't matter to anyone.
    And the fact that there will be a famine ... it will be for sure ...
    and cold weather too ...
    Naturally not dill is to blame ... and not a vacuum in his head.
  27. Myth
    Myth 17 September 2014 16: 45
    0
    The Ukrainian catastrophe is exclusively within the country. Question to the author, which country?
  28. Signaller
    Signaller 17 September 2014 16: 47
    0
    But Donbass happened-SUDDENLY. For whom???? For Kolomoisky and company and Poroshchenko with them ???
    He happened to the whole oligarchy and Ukraine and the Russian Federation. There, the money of the Russian oligarchs was buried no less than the Ukrainian. We agreed on how to divide the People’s Republics and all of them on your side. From here, and all the legs grow. Business cannot be divided either. And the truce at the walls of Mariupol is most likely because of this. Type it is a zone of Ukraine. And Donetsk with Lugansk is a zone of the Russian Federation. . My personal guess. If the freedom of New Russia will be clear that without the oligarchs. And they need this ???? Not. That is traded. The people are on the side. Without it, it’s calmer to divide the profits.
  29. vomag
    vomag 17 September 2014 17: 00
    0
    At the time of this writing, the losses of the Ukrainian Armed Forces amounted to 54 destroyed tanks, 118 BMP and BMD, 52 armored personnel carriers, 16 self-propelled guns, 8 towed guns, 11 MLRS, 9 combat and three auxiliary aircraft, five combat and six multi-purpose helicopters. In addition, 23 tanks, 52 BMPs and BMDs, 24 armored personnel carriers, 16 self-propelled guns, 17 towed guns, and two MLRS were captured by militia. Any European army with such a level of losses in such a short period of time would have lost the opportunity to wage war. I had enough current for this then laughed ... I could not read on anymore .. I missed such delusions for a long time
  30. Alexl
    Alexl 17 September 2014 21: 07
    +2
    Everything is well written, but only the majority in the ranks of the militia are still local residents, not Russian volunteers. And the fact that Ukraine has long been, even from the Soviet era, anti-Russian sentiments reign, competent people have known for a long time. Only pro-government propagandists are talking about fraternal people.
  31. Bassoon
    Bassoon 17 September 2014 21: 50
    0
    But what about gas, increased electricity tariffs, disconnection of hot water? What is not the soil for the Maidan. Plus the coffins that come from the atomic zone.
  32. Alfizik
    Alfizik 17 September 2014 23: 25
    0
    ... In this regard, the popular propaganda thesis that “fascists-Bandera” came to power in Ukraine sounds rather funny.

    Here the author is especially mistaken. Of course, it was not the fascists (they do not have membership cards) who came to power, but the fascist (Nazi, Bandera) spirit. The Nazi "mentality" came to power - misanthropy. And who is at the very top - Kolomoisky or Lyashko - does not matter. Russia is opposed by fascist ideology. And its roots are not only in Germany and Italy. Even the Germans during the Second World War did not understand that they were fascists. Ask any Ukrainian and he will be amazed with a blue eye: And where did you see the fascists here?
  33. aud13
    aud13 17 September 2014 23: 38
    +2
    In general, I liked the article, but the following conclusion seems controversial:

    The opinion is very popular in Russia that in the fall and winter Ukraine is expected to have “an economic collapse and a new Maidan”. These hopes are completely illusory and unrealizable. Russia-the USSR after the Civil War, Germany and Japan after the Second World War, South Korea after the Korean War experienced a complete economic collapse with a drop in GDP of more than 90 percent relative to the pre-war period. This, however, not only did not lead to the death of states, but they revived quite quickly, with almost no internal shocks. Of course, Ukraine will never become neither the USSR, nor Germany, nor Japan, nor South Korea, but this year the drop in its GDP will not exceed 15–20 percent. This is not a collapse, especially given the fact that the country, before the start of current events, to put it mildly, did not flourish.

    The conversation about a 15-20 percent drop reminds me of a joke about the average temperature in the hospital of -37,6, that is, it seems to be normal. However, this is an average value which consists of beating in a fever with a temperature of 42 degrees and some already sick patients lying in a morgue with a temperature of (-) 5 degrees.
    This can happen in Ukraine. With an average economic deterioration in certain territories of 15%, the emergence of territories in which a catastrophic situation is always possible. And if something like a popular rebellion takes place there, then it may well be supported (even morally) by the remaining part of the country, which may lead to the final collapse of Ukraine.
    In principle, this is by far the best development option for Russia. So at least there is an opportunity to join part of the territories to New Russia. Which - no, but the buffer will be.
    True, sitting and dreaming about it is also probably not quite right. It would be nice to help a little competent authorities.
  34. Evgeniy-111
    Evgeniy-111 18 September 2014 13: 20
    0
    The mass knocking out of youth in hostilities is also a tangible blow to the gene pool.
  35. Hitrovan07
    Hitrovan07 18 September 2014 13: 52
    0
    Novorossiya is not a "buffer", it is a forward outpost of the Russian Empire.
    The revival of Russia is not oligarchic capitalism - Russia is strong in spirit, by will and victory is always applied to this.
  36. Anchonsha
    Anchonsha 18 September 2014 14: 16
    0
    A difficult fate fell on Ukraine due to the venality of its elite, mainly of Jewish origin, the union of liberals with fascists finally dragged the country onto a disastrous path - the transfer of its sovereignty to the United States.