Military Review

Igor Pankratenko: "It is not Middle Eastern conflicts, but the games of the West in the Caspian region are the main source of external threats"

11
On the eve of the upcoming 27-28 of the September summit of the heads of state of the "Caspian Five" in Aktau an annual international conference entitled "Paradigms of International Cooperation in the Caspian Sea" will be held. On the eve of these events, Igor Ponkratenko, a well-known expert and editor-in-chief of Modern Iran magazine, answered questions from 1news.az.

- What factors against the background of geopolitical changes can security issues for the countries of the Caspian region in the near future?

- It seems that the main trend in the near future will be the desire of extra-regional powers to establish control over both the energy resources of the Caspian Sea and the ways of their transportation - pipelines. Highly indicative in this respect история with the plans of the Turkmen side, supported in the West, on the construction of the pipeline under the Caspian Sea (TKT) with a length of 300 kilometers, which would connect the port of Turkmenbashi in the west of Turkmenistan to the terminal in Baku. It is clear that Turkmen gas would be very much in place in Europe’s plans, and the ultimate goal of building this pipe is diversification of energy supplies from Russia. However, the prospects for this project are unlikely. The TKT project is not only disliked by Russia, Iran, the largest producer of natural gas, is also opposed. And the main thing is Beijing, which is absolutely not satisfied with the fact that the Turkmen gas in large volumes will go to the west. Moreover, despite assurances from the Turkmen leadership that the country will be able to produce 2020 billions of cubic meters of gas by 155, the estimate of the International Energy Agency is two times less. Turkmenistan, of course, is a neutral country, but this does not at all mean that it will be given to “swing” simultaneously to the east and west. This is only a private one, but, I repeat, a very significant example of how the main trend looks.

- In your opinion, are the five countries ready to compromise on the issue of determining the status of the Caspian?

- Remember the brilliant phrase of the assembler Mechnikov from “The Twelve Chairs” - consent is a product with complete nonresistance of the parties? So, in order for this “non-resistance”, or compromise, to be more convenient, come, the political elites of the Caspian states need to understand that regional issues must be resolved “intra-family” between the states of this region, since external players are richer, more powerful and, as a result, selfish. A position where the resolution of intra-regional contradictions is made dependent on relations with a third party is, of course, fascinating, but ultimately counterproductive for national interests. When the parties acknowledge this, the road to compromise will be shorter. As for Iran’s position, it is ready to compromise under two conditions - there are guarantees that the Caspian will not have a western presence, and that the observed militarization of the Caspian will not be fueled from the outside. Whether such a position is significant, such an approach, let them think in the other capitals of the Caspian states, including Moscow.

- What is the likelihood of the impact of Middle East conflicts on the situation in the Caspian region?

- Let's immediately discuss the following. Conflicts in the Middle East today fit into three sources. The first is the Israeli-Palestinian confrontation. The second is the paranoid "deterrence of Iran" carried out. The third one, which is out of control of the organizers and sponsors, is rapidly mutated into a self-sufficient cross-border education - the notorious “Islamist jihad”. In quotes - because this activity has nothing to do with either Islam or jihad. I will make a reservation - the draft scheme, since I am not talking about external sources. So, it is the third source in the future that can create threats to stability in the Caspian region. But the likelihood of this, however, is not too high, and this is why: the strategic direction for jihadists today for a number of completely objective reasons is the Levant, the Maghreb and the strip south of the Sahel. So the maximum of their capabilities in the region is the formation of an underground in the form of a network of jamaats, pinpoint attacks. So in the coming years, this threat may well be blocked by joint police efforts. However, it is not Middle Eastern conflicts, but the games of the West in this region are the main source of external threats. I have already mentioned the interest above, but we all know perfectly well how and by what methods the West seeks to realize its own geopolitical interests, and the destruction of stability is one of the main methods.

- Does the concept of “new multipolarity of the modern world” extend to processes directly related to the countries of the Caspian region?

- Maybe it will sound and not in accordance, sorry for the expression with the “trend”, but I absolutely do not consider the modern world to be multipolar. There is a hegemon - the United States, there is China, which is catching up with it, which, nevertheless, does not at all strive to proclaim itself a “pole”, since it understands perfectly well that for this there are no special grounds yet. And there are some states whose foreign policy to a certain extent does not suit Washington and that very “West” - a certain aggregate of political forces and capital that has consolidated around the very same Washington. Where and what is multipolarity here? This is the myth of “humanities from analysts,” who, rushing in terms, will not bother to compare the size of GDP and the foreign policy potential of the United States and NATO countries with similar indicators of “multipolar”. Another thing is the tendency to the emergence of regional and interregional associations, but it’s still premature to speak about their results.

- How do you see further geopolitical and strategic cooperation between the countries of the Caspian region?

- Oh, how I would like to answer your question with enthusiasm and optimism. Unfortunately, we are only at the beginning of the road, when the basic approaches are not formed, the goals and mutual benefits are not completely clear, the preferences of such cooperation and many other things are incomprehensible. I am sure of only one thing - regional development and, accordingly, regional responsibility for the security and effective use of the Caspian is an objective, and therefore, inevitable process. The question of the speed of its implementation, let's leave the next time.

- What is the purpose of the international conference organized by you and what are the expectations from it?

- Well, first of all, all the merit in the organization is exclusively on Alexander Alekseevich Knyazev. His energy, his intellectual and organizational efforts. For me, the main goal is, firstly, “to check watches”, that is, to find out the opinions of my respected and more experienced colleagues on the Caspian problems, and to analyze the likelihood of their practical execution in analytical documents. Secondly, for me, of particular interest is the situational analysis planned within the framework of this conference, a kind of brainstorming on the topic “Background and probability of formation of the Moscow-Tehran axis in a changing world: projections to Central Asia, the Caspian Sea and the Caucasus”. In a word, I am waiting for the main thing from the conference - ideas that may later form the basis of the security concepts of not only the Caspian Sea, but also other regions.
Author:
Originator:
http://www.caspiania.org/2014/09/12/igor-pankratenko-ne-blizhnevostochnye-konflikty-a-igry-zapada-v-kaspijskom-regione-yavlyayutsya-osnovnym-istochnikom-vneshnix-ugroz/
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  1. bubla5
    bubla5 16 September 2014 15: 16
    +1
    Again, they insistently impose the Needle on us, but they also said the same thing when Saddam and Mubarak came to power, maybe this structure will unite and restore order in the South East, and the West and America do not need order
    1. pilot8878
      pilot8878 16 September 2014 17: 38
      +2
      In Chechnya, they have already been imposing since 1991. Spirits - they are spirits. And therefore subject to destruction. And the longer you hide your head in the sand, the more will be cut off heads and members in the throats.
    2. 222222
      222222 16 September 2014 18: 02
      +2
      It’s time to prepare for World War III (Huangqiu Shibao Newspaper, China)
      Han Xudong
      http://inosmi.ru/fareast/20140916/223036019.html#ixzz3DUDstnGX
      1. Since the situation in Ukraine is getting worse and worse, many in the world are afraid that a direct armed conflict will arise between Russia and the United States. If this really happens, then it is entirely possible that a new world war will begin.
      2. Now we are fighting directly for control of the sea. Therefore, in areas such as the Arctic Ocean, Pacific and Indian Oceans, there is a fierce struggle for influence. It can be assumed that in the future, a world war could erupt because of this.
      3. In the era of the Third World War, the following question will become an important problem for building up Chinese military power: how to develop military forces in order to effectively protect state interests?
      a. firstly, from its very foundation, China has always developed military power in such a way as to defend its interests on land. As the struggle for the body of water becomes increasingly fierce, China needs to change its mindset and switch to protecting marine interests.
      b. Secondly, in the era of the new world war, China is just in the region for which there is a struggle. This again forces him to develop his military power, focusing on world-class wars. China is surrounded by the Arctic, Pacific and Indian Oceans, and it is natural that the development of its sea power makes other countries nervous. Against this background, the PRC needs to develop military capabilities and take the initiative so as not to become a passive participant in the game.
      c. Thirdly, as China expands its interests outside the state, they spread throughout the world. Since the United States is currently placing strategic emphasis on the Asia-Pacific region, this directly affects the PRC, and its foreign interests are more and more at risk from America. If China does not have the necessary military force, then there can be no question of protecting foreign interests.
      Fourthly, China's naval and air combat capabilities, as well as the ability to conduct military operations abroad, are extremely limited today. If we do not consider the issue of the development of the naval forces within the framework of the world war, then the next point - the strengthening of the Chinese air force - will be limited by existing prejudices, and the protection of foreign interests will face even greater resistance. This will lead to the fact that in terms of its naval and air potential, the PRC will again find itself in the margins of history. China cannot become a passive participant in the game again. He must develop his military potential, focusing on world war, and pay due attention to the build-up of naval power. "" "

      ..... The Huanqiu Shibao newspaper is called the unofficial mouthpiece of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China ....
      1. MaxSanbl4
        MaxSanbl4 16 September 2014 19: 16
        +2
        point 3b amused, apparently the Chinese are also not all right with geography - "China is surrounded Arctic, Pacific and Indian Oceans. "Or the" companions "have already opened their mouths on someone else's pie? ...
  2. bmv04636
    bmv04636 16 September 2014 15: 28
    +3
    A bit off topic but after China we return to Africa:
    MOSCOW, Sep 15 - RIA News. The Republic of Zimbabwe is ready to provide two dozen Russian companies with access to its subsoil, and also agrees to place joint assembly plants on its territory, the products of which will be exported to neighboring states, the Ministry of Industry and Trade of the Russian Federation reports. Russian Minister of Industry and Trade Denis Manturov, together with the Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Zimbabwe, Simbarash Mumbengegvi, signed a protocol on the readiness of cooperation on a wide range of issues that opened the Zimbabwean market to Russian investors, the agency’s press release said after the first meeting of the two countries' intergovernmental commission. In particular, the main focus of the cooperation will be on the integrated development of the Darwendale platinum group metal deposit by the Russian consortium, which includes the Rostec state corporation, Vnesheconombank and the Russian holding company Vi Holding. “Another example of successful cooperation is the DTZ-OZGEO joint mining enterprise, which, together with ALROSA, is working on assessing the prospects of new diamond deposits in Zimbabwe, organizing a system for sorting, evaluating and selling rough diamonds,” the statement said. In addition, during the meeting, a number of Russian companies expressed interest in entering the Zimbabwean market and expanding existing cooperation. Among them are companies such as United Machine-Building Plants, Stroytransgaz, KAMAZ, Tractor Plants, Inter RAO - Export, Power Machines, Technopromexport, Uralvagonzavod, Russian Railways, United Engine Corporation, Gazprom Space Systems.
    1. yur58
      yur58 16 September 2014 16: 01
      +1
      Ebola is rampant there. Scary.
    2. atalef
      atalef 16 September 2014 16: 51
      +1
      Quote: bmv04636
      A little off topic, but after China we return to Africa: MOSCOW, September 15 - RIA Novosti. The Republic of Zimbabwe is ready to provide two dozen Russian companies with access to its subsoil, and also agrees to place joint assembly plants on its territory, the products of which will be exported to neighboring states, the Ministry of Industry and Trade of the Russian Federation reports.

      Zimbabwe - laughed. Remind me of a country where inflation is expressed in six-digit numbers - is it not Zimbabwe?
      1. Horn
        Horn 16 September 2014 19: 05
        +2
        yes, even at least sixty-digit. Platinoids and diamonds are not getting cheaper.
      2. Chestnut
        Chestnut 16 September 2014 21: 47
        +2
        Remind the rate of inflation in Israel in the late seventies and early eighties.
  3. Roman 1977
    Roman 1977 16 September 2014 15: 32
    +6
    So, the balance of forces in the basin of the Caspian Sea, as part of the Caspian Flotilla:
    2 rocket ships (light frigates) pr. 1166.1 "Tatarstan" (commissioned to the fleet in 2002), "Dagestan" (commissioned in 2012). "Tatarstan" is armed with 8 launchers of the Uranium SCRC, "Dagestan" 8 launchers of the UKSK Caliber-NK, which can use several types of high-precision cruise missiles against surface, underwater and coastal targets at a distance of up to 300 km.

    2 MRK pr. 21631 "Buyan-M", armed with 8 launchers UKSK Caliber-NK, each.

    4 small artillery ship:
    3 IAC pr. 21630 "Buyan" were transferred to the fleet in 2006, 2001, 2012. respectively.

    MAK-160 "Gomel" pr. 12411-T "Molniya-T". Returned to service after a complete renovation and modernization in December 2011. Received: two new main engines, modernized gas turbines, artillery weapons, communication and navigation systems.
    4 missile boats:
    1 pr. 12411-T "Molniya-T" - "Stupinets", transferred to the fleet in 1985, armed with 4 anti-ship missiles P-15.

    3 Ave. 206, delivered to the fleet in 1978 and 1983 (two)
    5 artillery boats:
    4 projects 1204 "Shmel"
    1 project 1400M "" Grif "
    1 anti-sabotage boat, project 21980 "Grachonok" (transferred in 2013)
    7 minesweepers (5 BTSCH + 2 RTSCH):
    2 project 1265 "Yakhont",
    2 project 10750 "Sapphire",
    1 project 1258 "Korund",
    2 Ave. 697ТБ (РТЩ).
    6 landing craft:
    1 project 1176 "Shark" (1999),
    1 project 21820 "Dugong" (2010)
    4 project 11770 "Serna" (2000, 2002, 2005, 2008).
    Total surface ships: 31. The average fleet age at 2014 year is 18,5 years.
    Aggregate missile salvo: 42 anti-ship missiles = 8 "Uran" ("Tatarstan") + 8 "Caliber-NK" ("Dagestan") + 16 "Caliber-NK" (MRK pr. 21631) + 4 P-15 (RSA pr. 12411T) + 6 P-15 (RCA pr.206).
    This year, the fleet should include the MRK pr. 21631 "Veliky Ustyug", which is passing the GKhI in the Caspian Sea, 2 DKA pr. 11770 "Serna" (they wintered in Gorodets, left for the Caspian Sea, an acceptance certificate has already been signed for one). From auxiliary: rescue tugboat "SBS-45" pr. 22870 (acceptance certificate was signed on June 27) and floating crane ship "VTR-79", which became part of the flotilla on August 1; 3 harbor boats of complex rescue support "RVK-933", "RVK-946", "RVK-1045". Some of the ships with CFLs began to be transferred to other fleets: so last year the newest RCA-R-32 pr. 12421 was transferred to the BF (transferred to the fleet in 2000), this year the Black Sea Fleet was transferred, built for CFL PrDK pr. 21980 "Grachonok" and DKA pr.11770 "Serna".
    1. Roman 1977
      Roman 1977 16 September 2014 15: 39
      +4
      The following naval forces in the Caspian Sea are Iran:
      The Damawand frigate is the second Iranian-built frigate of the Jamaran class (Moudge program, or Mowj - موج - "Wave") and is actually a modified and simplified copy of the small frigates of the British export project Vosper Mk 5 developed in the 60s, 4 units of which were built in the UK according to 1965 contract for the Iranian Navy as a Saam type (Alvand). Displacement: 1420 tons. Length - 94,5 m, width - 11,1 m, draft - 3,25 m. Power plant - 2 gas turbine units (20000 hp), 4 diesel generators (4x550 kV). Speed ​​- 28 knots. Crew - 120-140 people. Armament: 4 Noor anti-ship missiles - a copy of the Chinese C-802 (YJ-82) anti-ship missile system, which in turn is a copy of the French Exocett, 4 SM-1 anti-aircraft missile systems (copy of the American RIM-66A Standard), 1 76-mm Fajr gun -27 (copy of the Italian OTO Melara), 1x1 40mm Fath-40 (copy of the Swedish Bofors L70), 2x1 20mm Oerlikon GAM-B01, 2x3 324mm TA, runway for Bell 214ASW helicopter

      It was launched on 17.03.2013/17/21631. On July XNUMX, the GKHI began, presumably it will enter the fleet by the end of the year. Our "Dagestan" and MRK pr.XNUMX can easily kill this "ship" right in the port.
      2 RCA of the Sina project: Paykan (2003 g.) And Joshan (2006 g.). Displacement: 275 t. Copy of the French La Combattante II. Length - 47 m, width - 7,1 m, draft - 2 m. EU - 4-shaft, 4 diesel, 14400 hp Speed ​​- 36 knots Crew - 31 people Armament: 4 anti-ship missiles S-802 (YJ-82); 1 76 mm AC Fajr-27, 1 40 mm AC Fath-40.

      Light corvette "Hamzeh". Displacement: 580 tons. The modernized Dutch ship built in 1936 (Boelle Yard, Bolnes) is a former Shah's yacht. Transferred to the Navy in 1965. Length - 54 m, width - 7,65 m, draft - 3,25 mm. EU - two Stork diesels, 2600 hp Speed ​​- 15 knots. Armament: 4 C-802 anti-ship missile launchers, 20-mm Oerlikon GAM-B01 automatic weapons, 2 large-caliber machine guns.

      Thus, the total salvo of the Iranian Navy in the Caspian Sea is 16 missiles = 4 from the frigate Damawand + 8 from the RCA + 4 from the "Hamzeh".
      In addition, Iran can easily transfer to the Caspian in the event of an aggravation of the situation, small diesel-electric submarines Ghadir-21 units. (displacement 120 tons, 2 TA)
      or Yugo-4 units (displacement 90 tons, 2 TA), and light RCA Peykaap- 74 units. (displacement 98 / 148 tons; armament of 2 launchers of anti-ship missiles Kowsar, 1 40-MM AU, 2 heavy machine guns)
      In addition, Iran is building its own Fateh-type diesel-electric submarine in Bandar Anzali on the Caspian Sea, intended for the Navy of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, and which will become the first more or less "full-fledged" Iranian-built submarine. The boat has an underwater displacement of about 600 tons and a length increased to 48 m.
      1. Roman 1977
        Roman 1977 16 September 2014 15: 44
        +3
        Azerbaijan has a fairly large, but at the same time the weakest fleet on the Caspian Sea, so it does not have a single ship with missile weapons:
        The flagship is the SKR G-121 Gusary, the former SKR pr. 159A SKR-16 Bakuets. The TFR underwent a complete overhaul with the replacement of the propulsion system. Also, during the repair, 400-mm torpedo tubes and RBU-6000 were removed, and two 30-mm AK-230 assault rifles were installed behind the wheelhouse.

        12 patrol ships and boats:
        former RCA "R-173" of the KVF of the Soviet Navy, pr.205. The anti-ship missile containers were dismantled from the ship and the guard was transferred.

        4 patrol boats of 205 ave. Of the former Baku border brigade of the PSKR MCHPV KGB of the USSR. The ships were partially disarmed (removed by the TCA) and are part of the Azerbaijan’s BOHR.

        patrol ship "R-212" - the former ship of radiation-chemical reconnaissance project 1388R (KRKh-1)
        3 former training ships of the UK-3 project (Polish construction).
        2 patrol ship Ave. 722, Polish built.

        patrol ship former rescue boat ave. 368U.
        former Turkish Navy patrol boat handed over to Azerbaijan.
        4 Minesweeper:
        2 base minesweepers of project 1265 "Yakhont"
        2 basic rammers of project 1258 "Corundum"
        6 landing craft:
        4 medium landing craft ave. 770 and 771
        2 small landing craft ave.106К
        In addition, after the collapse of the USSR, Azerbaijan received ultra-small submarines (group carriers of combat swimmers) of the Triton-1M and Triton-2 types (it is planned to be repaired in Croatia), as well as individual underwater vehicles for reconnaissance divers.
        However, Azerbaijan is trying to build up its Navy. So, on July 18 this year, President Ilham Aliyev of Azerbaijan attended the opening of a new shipbuilding plant of the Coast Guard of the State Border Service of Azerbaijan, built in the Baku village of Turkan. The company has already assembled two patrol boats of the Shaldag Mk V type built by the Israeli company Israel Shipyards. The assembled boats have side numbers S-301 (this boat is at the stage of sea trials) and S-302 (on July 18 was prepared for launching). Shaldag Mk V-type boats built for Azerbaijan are armed with a Rafael Typhoon tank remotely controlled automatic installation (presumably using one 23-mm automatic gun 2-14 from the ZU-23-2 installation), two remotely controlled Rafael Mini units with 12,7-mm machine guns -mm machine guns, and presumably a four-shot launcher of the Rafael Spike-NLOS missile system.
        1. Roman 1977
          Roman 1977 16 September 2014 15: 47
          +3
          Turkmenistan has recently greatly increased its navy, taking third place in terms of their potential in the Caspian. As part of the Turkmen Navy:
          2 missile boats of the 1241.8 project, each armed with 16 anti-ship missiles X-35. Transferred to 2011 year.

          8 fast patrol boats of the NTPB project (total ordered by 12) are being built in Turkmenistan according to the Turkish project at the shipbuilding and ship repair plant in Ufra in Turkmenbashi (formerly Krasnovodsk). Displacement 400 tons, length 55,75 meters, 40-mm twin tower automatic artillery Oto Melara Twin Compact.

          4 AMB type high-speed patrol boats. They are built according to the Turkish project, in total 12 units have been ordered.
          2 Russian-built patrol boats of the Sobol type (transferred in 2009)
          2 patrol boats pr. 1400T "Grif-T" of Ukrainian construction.

          1 Ukrainian-built Kalkan-M patrol boat.

          1 Point Jackson patrol boat transferred to USA
          1 landing craft of an unknown type of Russian construction.
          Thus, according to the sum of the missile salvo, the Turkmen Navy is equal to the Iranian Navy and completely surpasses the Azerbaijani Navy, but does not include large ships.
          1. Roman 1977
            Roman 1977 16 September 2014 15: 50
            +3
            Kazakhstan has the weakest Navy in the region:
            2 missile and artillery boats of the project 250 Bars-MO. The lead boat Kazakhstan, launched in April 2012 of the year and put into operation in December 2012 of the year, length is 46 meters, the standard displacement of the rocket-artillery ship 240 tons, and the highest speed - in 28-30 knots; armament consists of a tank 25-mm twin artillery mount 2M-3M, 23-mm twin anti-aircraft artillery mount ZU-23, as well as 12-barrel 122-mm launcher MLRS.

            The first serial "Oral" was launched on April 30, 2013 and commissioned on December 3, 2013. On "Oral" the composition of weapons has been changed - a tank 30-mm six-barreled artillery mount AK-306 was installed, as well as two complexes developed by the Ukrainian State Enterprise "State Kiev Design Bureau" Luch "- a turret launcher" Arbalet-K "with four MANPADS missiles" Igla "and the Barrier-VK missile system with four laser-guided anti-tank guided missiles RK-2V, as well as the Ukrainian weapons control system" Kaskad-250 ". The third ship of the project" Saryarka "(named after the steppe region of Central Kazakhstan, Russian scientific name - Kazakh Melkosopochnik), built at the "Ural plant" Zenith ", which is part of JSC" National Company "Kazakhstan Engineering" launched on May 7 this year. The ship is expected to enter the Navy of Kazakhstan by the end of the year. Armament "Saryarka "similar to the ship" Oral ".

            Next year, the missile and artillery ship "Super Bars" was ordered
            The 1 South Korean-built Sea Dolphin patrol boat was received in the 2006 year.

            4 landing craft of American construction, received in 2009 year.
            On July 11 this year in Uralsk at Uralsky Zavod Zenit JSC, the head high-speed patrol boat "Karaganda" (side number "308") of the new project 0210 (code "Aybar"), intended for the state border service of Kazakhstan, was launched.

            2 road minesweepers of project 10750E have been ordered (the first was laid down in 2013, the second was laid down on July 31 this year, the minesweepers are to be transferred in 2015). In May 2012, the Ministry of Defense of Kazakhstan, the National Company Kazakhstan Engineering JSC and the European companies MBDA and INDRA Sistemas signed an agreement on the acquisition of a coastal defense system for the Kazakh Navy based on the family of the Exocet MM40 Block 3 anti-ship missile. It is planned to purchase 6 missile-artillery ships pr. 21632 "Tornado"
          2. Barakuda
            Barakuda 16 September 2014 17: 33
            0
            All right, BUT WHO teaches them? Is it not Russia by chance?
  4. Anchonsha
    Anchonsha 16 September 2014 15: 36
    0
    How much the West wants to be involved in everything everywhere, be present everywhere, lead, and especially the United States. And even more so in the Caspian basin, where so far the road is closed to the USA. But their economic power and military, including the United States, can make a breach by pressure on individual countries and the fragile balance of the Caspian Sea can be violated.
  5. Grbear
    Grbear 16 September 2014 15: 43
    0
    ... of particular interest to me is the situational analysis planned at the conference, a kind of “brainstorming” on the topic “Background and probability of formation axis Moscow-Tehran in a changing world: projections on Central Asia, the Caspian littoral and the Caucasus. ”

    If the five have such an axis, then the "third" countries will have a hard time there. Hence, we must wait for these "third" with gifts for the "orphaned and the poor."
    But I like the trend in relations with Iran.
  6. Tanechka-clever
    Tanechka-clever 16 September 2014 16: 08
    +3
    "..but I absolutely do not consider the modern world to be multipolar. There is a hegemon - the United States ..."
    I absolutely agree with the author.

    And before that I read an article on the site "Vzglyad" - "The Case of the Comprador" Anatoly El Murid,
    September 16, 2014, 11:02.

    It so happened that in fact - they are talking about one thing - American exceptionalism.

    "Poroshenko announced that the signed and ratified agreement with the EU will actually begin to be implemented ... from the beginning of 2016 ..."

    Oh li !!! Are there really naive people who believe in this? Yatsenyuk already openly declares - NO.

    "Yatsenyuk is a six (or even a card of lesser value) in an American deck. Going full steam ahead to the war, the Americans do not want to give Russia time to carry out the announced import substitution program.
    Everything should happen according to the most severe scenario ... "

    And here are the main words of the article ...
    "Home in his tasks - maximum harm to Russia, everything else is secondary and meaningless little things. Including, of course, Ukraine. "

    America needs a war ... Russia and Ukraine. Other conflicts on the Russian border will play a supporting role and nothing more. And therefore Russia, in which case, will only have to act - very, very tough, without regard to morality and virtue ..... if it wants to withstand the United States.
    "American exceptionalism" is a political product of JEWS who fled Germany to the United States. And therefore, the hegemon today are Jews from the United States. The Jewish essence is such that their aggression in the world can only be stopped by a threat to Jewish existence - nothing else can and cannot stop them. The fear of being destroyed makes them destroy others if they are allowed - in the meantime, the world community allows them to do so. And the desire for world domination allows Jews to exercise control for their own safety.

    Therefore, the USA can be neutralized only in one case if FEAR becomes their constant companion of life in the world - and today they scare them. This is the only nation on earth to live in FEAR deadly contraindicated.
    1. 23 region
      23 region 16 September 2014 18: 10
      0
      Quote: Tanya-umunechka
      Therefore, the USA can be neutralized only in one case if FEAR becomes their constant companion of life in the world - and today they scare them.
  7. Barakuda
    Barakuda 16 September 2014 17: 28
    +1
    The Aliyev clan in a nightmare see Vovka Putin ... Well, or let them watch a movie.
  8. Russ69
    Russ69 16 September 2014 18: 18
    +1
    According to information leaked to American journalists, one of the secretaries of US President Barack Obama in an informal setting shared with her friend some amusing information: that on March 12, 2014, during a meeting with the current Prime Minister of Ukraine Arseniy Yatsenyuk on providing financial assistance to Ukraine, given what exactly Barack Obama brought the Ukrainian delegation to the United States as a pledge of repayment of the IMF debt, trying to maintain an extremely serious expression on his face, several times when he looked at Yatsenyuk he could hardly restrain a smile. And after the end of the meeting and the departure of Yatsenyuk's team, the entire Presidential Administration burst into laughter "to tears." The fact is, as she explained, that they have never had to deal with such "fabulous idiots" who would at the same time rule the whole country, and that in their opinion these, as she put it, "clowns" (meaning Yatsenyuk and company) "turned out to be stupider than the natives whom Columbus met, discovering new lands." In their narrow circle, during a heated discussion, which pretty much raised the mood of everyone present, interrupting each other, representatives of the White House offered sharp formulations about what the rest of the establishment of the Ukrainian parliament and the Ukrainian people themselves are, if they are governed by such leaders. Other details regarding this curiosity are not reported.
  9. Bakht
    Bakht 16 September 2014 18: 31
    +2
    Stability in the South Caucasus is possible only if regional conflicts are resolved. This concerns Karabakh in the first place. To a lesser extent, this applies to Abkhazia and South Ossetia. This is understandable. For Azerbaijan and Armenia there is an undercover struggle between the West and Russia. The issue with Georgia has already been resolved unambiguously. She is in the sphere of influence of the West.

    It seems to me that we must first find a compromise solution between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Azerbaijan loyal to Russia may well draw Georgia into the general scheme. The economic well-being of Georgia is largely ensured by Azerbaijan. Then the whole situation in the South Caucasus will look in the manner proposed by our Patriarch Heydar Aliyev:

    In the South Caucasus, you need to have two circles of security. The small circle should comprise the countries of the Armenia-Azerbaijan-Georgia region.
    Guarantor of stability and members of a wide circle will be the guarantor countries of Russia-Iran-Turkey. And we do not need any other countries here.

    Now, with regard to ISIS. This one is serious. And even I will say more - this is dangerous. They are quite able to aggravate the situation in Azerbaijan (Armenia and Georgia as Christian countries do not interest them yet). The only hope for a strong state is Azerbaijan, which is now fighting not for life, but for death with Islamic Islamists in Azerbaijan. Therefore, any weakening of central authority in Azerbaijan is disadvantageous to either Azerbaijan or Russia.

    But all this will hang in limbo until the Karabakh conflict is resolved. As long as there is a point of application of external forces, any changes are possible.

    PS As for the comparison of the Navy and the Armed Forces of any state, these are all wonderful exercises in arithmetic. The sun themselves will not decide anything. The issue will be resolved in the offices of the political elites of the Caucasian countries. Or in the fight against Islamist radicals. And these radicals set their first goal precisely Azerbaijan.
    1. APASUS
      APASUS 16 September 2014 18: 51
      +1
      Quote: Bakht
      the radicals set their first goal precisely Azerbaijan.

      Where does this information come from? As far as I know, Aliyev began to have problems with the Western world when, on the contrary, he was strongly crushed by the opposition. Yes, and in fact there has never been democracy in Azerbaijan, this Muslim state does not mean anything
      1. Bakht
        Bakht 16 September 2014 19: 20
        0
        Quote: APASUS

        Invalid views. Azerbaijan has as much democracy as Russia. No less and no more. And Azerbaijan is not an Islamic state. So far (very important word), so far Azerbaijan is a secular state.

        Problems with the West began precisely because of the games of the West with the Islamic factor. Militants from Syria and Iraq are already returning to Azerbaijan. And here they are mercilessly pressed. Up to criminal prosecution for participating in illegal armed groups abroad. Azerbaijan predictably voted at the UN in Ukraine (Crimea). But having Karabakh, it would be strange if Azerbaijan would vote differently. On the other hand, Azerbaijan is blocking any ties of its opposition with Kiev.

        I know the basic rules and laws of the game. So far, the Karabakh conflict has not been resolved and Armenia and Azerbaijan are objects of international relations. But in no case by subjects. We can be manipulated. Anyone who promises Karabakh will become the dominant force in the region.

        Therefore, from my point of view, Armenia and Azerbaijan urgently need to discard ALL intermediaries and agree on their own. To prevent a third force from entering the region. If this Gordian knot can be cut, then the problem of Georgia will appear in a different light.

        But in any case, regardless of the ruling regime in Azerbaijan, ISIS made its statements. Azerbaijan is their next goal. They have enough funds and resources to act in different directions.
      2. Yeraz
        Yeraz 16 September 2014 19: 54
        0
        Quote: APASUS
        Where does this information come from?

        The radicals have greatly increased their legs in Azerbaijan, and this is under the control of the state. It is enough to see how many went to fight in Syria and the composition of those who went, a lot of athletes, and what champions are there. And this is not good, but how many lurks and how many potential? If the central government weakens it all smells bad.
        1. APASUS
          APASUS 17 September 2014 07: 29
          0
          I hope Aliyev will not follow up on the 5th column, although of course not only Baku and Yerevan will play this card.
  10. shelva
    shelva 16 September 2014 18: 55
    0
    I like the position of Iran - there is no need in the Caspian for foreign states, nor their "interests". It is important that the "five" come to one opinion on this issue.
    1. Bakht
      Bakht 16 September 2014 19: 24
      +1
      Quote: shelva

      This would be a good position if Iran itself did not increase its military presence in the Caspian.
  11. Kadex
    Kadex 16 September 2014 19: 31
    +2
    I wish you well.
    Personally, I do not like the militarization of the Caspian. Well, where, where, and then the neighbors could agree, given that many left the Union. And the first wave began to drive Iran, when he claimed 20% of the sea, having the smallest coastline. Instead of becoming one of the guarantors of security in the region, it was Iran that began to use force methods, chasing the ships of its neighbors. Given the difficult relations with the West, he laments about his injustice in the international arena, and he applies the same practice. And now, talking about compromises, he also sets the conditions. negative
  12. observer.ru
    observer.ru 16 September 2014 23: 47
    0
    Who is this well-known expert pankratenko? "There is a hegemon of the United States, there is a catching up China, there are dissent.?, There are alliances and alliances: raw materials, military, human, geographic
    This combination of various resources gives a picture of the world today. I will only repeat for today. There is hegemony of the dollar as an inter-currency, but this is not from the strength of the United States, but from the weakness and distrust of each other's main players, for the one who replaces the dollar will become the master of the world in the near future and the gdp is here on ... nothing to do with it. Once they choose a new currency for the dollar _) _. Moral: on the tsar-mountains after 2 MB, the method settled more cunningly ,,,,,, rather than the dominant dollar economy, time it ended at least 3-4 years. they just think what to replace. the USA is not a hegemon in any of the signs: human, raw, territorial