How Russia decided to freeze Ukraine
Four states said that Russia had reduced their gas supplies. Poland was short of either 24% or 45%, Austria - 15%, Slovakia - 10%, and Germany discovered a very small shortage. Gazprom denies non-compliance with Eurocontracts. In the meantime, the Polish gas transmission company stopped gas reversal to Ukraine, which Yatsenyuk did not like. He told the European Commission that by cutting supplies, Russia decided to freeze Ukraine in the winter. After the Kyivan performance, the Poles immediately resumed the gas supply to the Ukrainian side. It seems that Yatsenyuk is becoming more and more influential politician in Europe.
Gas "series" started a week ago, 8 September. The Polish state-owned gas company PGNiG announced that gas supply from Russia is decreasing. 8 September, the company recorded a decrease in supply by 20% against the contract performance, and the next day - by 24%. ("BBC" later cited data and on the reduction of supply in one day, 11 September, by 45%.)
Then, on September 10, Slovakia complained about gas problems in the face of Slovensky plynarensky priemysel. On that day, a discrepancy was found in 10%. It was also about the gas going through the territory of Ukraine.
According to RBC, Austria also reported interruptions in Russian gas supplies. According to the company E-Control, 11 September, the volume of gas supplied was 15% lower than the contract.
Then the press published a statement by the German energy concern E.ON. From there they reported a decrease in the volume of gas supplies received from Russia. "The current small restrictions on the supply of Russian gas have no effect on the situation with the energy supply [of Germany]," the representative of the concern quotes RBC.
However, Gazprom denies non-fulfillment of contractual obligations.
“We work in accordance with contracts, export volumes are stable, at the usual level for September. There is no reduction in supply, but there is no growth due to injection into underground storage facilities. There will be an opportunity, there will be resources - we will add. For example, in Poland today, September 12, we increased supplies to 23,2 million cubic meters. m per day, ”said Gazprom representative Sergei Kupriyanov to RBC. He then explained that the companies of the countries that reported underdelivery, on the indicated days, just applied for fuel in excess of the contract, and received volumes closer to the minimum specified in the agreements.
Thus, let us add to this, it is not at all about contractual, but about the requested volumes of gas (“above the contract”). Gazprom is not obliged to satisfy bids in excess of contractual norms.
However, Ukraine sounded the alarm. Presented by Arseniy Yatsenyuk. He told reporters that Kiev complained about Russia to the European Union. According to him, Russia's actions, forcing European companies to stop gas reversal to Ukraine, are "a clear sign of Russia's unreliability as a gas supplier."
Yatsenyuk said that the Ministry of Energy and coal Industry of Ukraine had appealed to the European Commission with a request to check the actions of Russia. "Russia used and uses gas as one of the weapons. The idea of Russian Gazprom is clear: to stop the reverse flow. They want to freeze us in the winter, ”Yatsenyuk newspaper quotes "Sight". Then the Ukrainian Prime Minister expressed confidence that the European partners would fulfill their obligations: after all, Ukraine had made an advance payment.
September 12 "series" rushed to the denouement. It became known that Poland resumed reverse gas supplies to Ukraine.
The head of Naftogaz of Ukraine, Andrei Kobolev, told Fifth Channel that Ukraine could do without Russian gas in winter, provided there were reverse supplies from Europe, as well as gas savings in 25%. "According to our calculations, - quotes him "Moscow Komsomol", - we will be able to go completely winter season without Russian gas under the condition of full capacity utilization through Slovakia, under the condition of insignificant load of the Hungarian direction, under the condition of average load of the Polish direction and under the condition of saving 25% gas consumption. Now, these savings are already occurring naturally by reducing consumption in conflict regions. ”
During the gas “series”, the press remembered the words of the head of Gazprom, Alexey Miller, spoken by him in the summer. In June, Miller saidthat Gazprom "is closely watching the reverse," and in the future may limit supplies to gas supplying companies to Kiev.
Other words came to mind. Writes Interfax, Miller stated that gas supplies from Poland and Hungary to Ukraine contradict the contract: “Reverse supplies are a semi-mechanical mechanism. The so-called ring reverse, when on the border of Ukraine and Poland, Ukraine and Hungary, gas chases in a circle, it is shown to everyone that the physical volumes of European gas are supplied to Ukraine, but in reality it is Russian gas. ”
Expressed and Vladimir Putin. He promised to reduce the volume of gas in the European market in case of violation of contractual conditions: “If someone thinks that it is possible to solve the problem of Ukraine’s energy supply by means of reverse supplies, it is deeply mistaken. First, if we see that someone is violating our gas supply contracts, we will reduce the volume, and physical volumes on the European market will simply not be enough. ”
According to Sergey Pravosudov, Director General of the National Energy Institute, whose words "Free press"To ensure a legitimate reverse scheme, a European company must buy gas and then sell to Ukraine.
As a result, the expert notes, “everything depends on the decision of Gazprom.” A Russian company may agree to a Europe-Ukraine reverse scheme, in which Europeans resell gas to Ukraine, but “pay at the same time a Russian corporation at an adequate price, taking into account the margin received”. Moscow can say no and reduce the volume of deliveries. Theoretically, this is possible, the analyst believes.
Recall that at the end of August, the press wrote about the offer "Gazprom" discounts for Ukraine. The gas giant was ready to give Ukraine a discount in 100 dollars, said Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak after a bilateral meeting between Russia and the EU. The cost of a thousand cubic meters at a discount would be 385,5 dollars. The head of the Ministry of Energy also did not rule out the unauthorized gas extraction by Ukraine during the transit of fuel through its territory to Europe.
"The situation on the eve of the heating season is critical," - quotes him "Lenta.ru".
Novak noted that Naftogaz’s debt to Gazprom is 5,3 billion dollars. Ukraine has not paid 11 billions of cubic meters of gas supplied.
By the way, European Commissioner for Energy Gunther Oettinger said that Naftogaz’s debts to Gazprom are indisputable.
However, Kiev, through the mouth of Arseniy Yatsenyuk, insisted in the summer on the price of 268 dollars per thousand cubic meters. Toward the fall, his position changed: the prime minister offered two options to Gazprom: in the summer 300 dollars per thousand cubic meters, and in the winter - 380 dollars.
According to Kiev, the reverse of Ukraine is beneficial, since the “blue fuel” bought out in Europe costs “Naftogaz” seven per cent cheaper than in the case of direct deliveries from Gazprom.
We note in conclusion that today Ukraine pays for “reverse” gas from 370 to 400 dollars for 1000 cubic meters (the most expensive option is Hungarian). Analysts believe that gas spot prices will rise in the winter.
In addition, the selection of gas in Europe will increase, and Ukraine may begin to suck paw.
Probably, in winter conditions Kiev will become more compliant. Especially since European Commissioner Ettinger, as it turned out, does not play along with Yatsenyuk. Still: Ettinger needs to think that no one is frozen in Europe. Otherwise, the European Commissioner will have to seek political asylum in the vicinity of Maidan Nezalezhnosti.
Gas "series" started a week ago, 8 September. The Polish state-owned gas company PGNiG announced that gas supply from Russia is decreasing. 8 September, the company recorded a decrease in supply by 20% against the contract performance, and the next day - by 24%. ("BBC" later cited data and on the reduction of supply in one day, 11 September, by 45%.)
Then, on September 10, Slovakia complained about gas problems in the face of Slovensky plynarensky priemysel. On that day, a discrepancy was found in 10%. It was also about the gas going through the territory of Ukraine.
According to RBC, Austria also reported interruptions in Russian gas supplies. According to the company E-Control, 11 September, the volume of gas supplied was 15% lower than the contract.
Then the press published a statement by the German energy concern E.ON. From there they reported a decrease in the volume of gas supplies received from Russia. "The current small restrictions on the supply of Russian gas have no effect on the situation with the energy supply [of Germany]," the representative of the concern quotes RBC.
However, Gazprom denies non-fulfillment of contractual obligations.
“We work in accordance with contracts, export volumes are stable, at the usual level for September. There is no reduction in supply, but there is no growth due to injection into underground storage facilities. There will be an opportunity, there will be resources - we will add. For example, in Poland today, September 12, we increased supplies to 23,2 million cubic meters. m per day, ”said Gazprom representative Sergei Kupriyanov to RBC. He then explained that the companies of the countries that reported underdelivery, on the indicated days, just applied for fuel in excess of the contract, and received volumes closer to the minimum specified in the agreements.
Thus, let us add to this, it is not at all about contractual, but about the requested volumes of gas (“above the contract”). Gazprom is not obliged to satisfy bids in excess of contractual norms.
However, Ukraine sounded the alarm. Presented by Arseniy Yatsenyuk. He told reporters that Kiev complained about Russia to the European Union. According to him, Russia's actions, forcing European companies to stop gas reversal to Ukraine, are "a clear sign of Russia's unreliability as a gas supplier."
Yatsenyuk said that the Ministry of Energy and coal Industry of Ukraine had appealed to the European Commission with a request to check the actions of Russia. "Russia used and uses gas as one of the weapons. The idea of Russian Gazprom is clear: to stop the reverse flow. They want to freeze us in the winter, ”Yatsenyuk newspaper quotes "Sight". Then the Ukrainian Prime Minister expressed confidence that the European partners would fulfill their obligations: after all, Ukraine had made an advance payment.
September 12 "series" rushed to the denouement. It became known that Poland resumed reverse gas supplies to Ukraine.
The head of Naftogaz of Ukraine, Andrei Kobolev, told Fifth Channel that Ukraine could do without Russian gas in winter, provided there were reverse supplies from Europe, as well as gas savings in 25%. "According to our calculations, - quotes him "Moscow Komsomol", - we will be able to go completely winter season without Russian gas under the condition of full capacity utilization through Slovakia, under the condition of insignificant load of the Hungarian direction, under the condition of average load of the Polish direction and under the condition of saving 25% gas consumption. Now, these savings are already occurring naturally by reducing consumption in conflict regions. ”
During the gas “series”, the press remembered the words of the head of Gazprom, Alexey Miller, spoken by him in the summer. In June, Miller saidthat Gazprom "is closely watching the reverse," and in the future may limit supplies to gas supplying companies to Kiev.
Other words came to mind. Writes Interfax, Miller stated that gas supplies from Poland and Hungary to Ukraine contradict the contract: “Reverse supplies are a semi-mechanical mechanism. The so-called ring reverse, when on the border of Ukraine and Poland, Ukraine and Hungary, gas chases in a circle, it is shown to everyone that the physical volumes of European gas are supplied to Ukraine, but in reality it is Russian gas. ”
Expressed and Vladimir Putin. He promised to reduce the volume of gas in the European market in case of violation of contractual conditions: “If someone thinks that it is possible to solve the problem of Ukraine’s energy supply by means of reverse supplies, it is deeply mistaken. First, if we see that someone is violating our gas supply contracts, we will reduce the volume, and physical volumes on the European market will simply not be enough. ”
According to Sergey Pravosudov, Director General of the National Energy Institute, whose words "Free press"To ensure a legitimate reverse scheme, a European company must buy gas and then sell to Ukraine.
“As far as I know, in the long-term contracts there was a clause that prohibits re-export of gas. But then European companies have achieved the abolition of this requirement, as a result of which they received the right to re-export. Now no one can forbid them. But there is another important point: Gazprom delivers fuel according to the “take or pay” formula. That is, they contain minimum volumes that our counterparties are required to purchase. If the need of the buyer exceeds the agreed rate (for example, in the cold period), additional supplies depend on the goodwill of Gazprom.
As a result, the expert notes, “everything depends on the decision of Gazprom.” A Russian company may agree to a Europe-Ukraine reverse scheme, in which Europeans resell gas to Ukraine, but “pay at the same time a Russian corporation at an adequate price, taking into account the margin received”. Moscow can say no and reduce the volume of deliveries. Theoretically, this is possible, the analyst believes.
Recall that at the end of August, the press wrote about the offer "Gazprom" discounts for Ukraine. The gas giant was ready to give Ukraine a discount in 100 dollars, said Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak after a bilateral meeting between Russia and the EU. The cost of a thousand cubic meters at a discount would be 385,5 dollars. The head of the Ministry of Energy also did not rule out the unauthorized gas extraction by Ukraine during the transit of fuel through its territory to Europe.
"The situation on the eve of the heating season is critical," - quotes him "Lenta.ru".
Novak noted that Naftogaz’s debt to Gazprom is 5,3 billion dollars. Ukraine has not paid 11 billions of cubic meters of gas supplied.
By the way, European Commissioner for Energy Gunther Oettinger said that Naftogaz’s debts to Gazprom are indisputable.
However, Kiev, through the mouth of Arseniy Yatsenyuk, insisted in the summer on the price of 268 dollars per thousand cubic meters. Toward the fall, his position changed: the prime minister offered two options to Gazprom: in the summer 300 dollars per thousand cubic meters, and in the winter - 380 dollars.
According to Kiev, the reverse of Ukraine is beneficial, since the “blue fuel” bought out in Europe costs “Naftogaz” seven per cent cheaper than in the case of direct deliveries from Gazprom.
We note in conclusion that today Ukraine pays for “reverse” gas from 370 to 400 dollars for 1000 cubic meters (the most expensive option is Hungarian). Analysts believe that gas spot prices will rise in the winter.
In addition, the selection of gas in Europe will increase, and Ukraine may begin to suck paw.
Probably, in winter conditions Kiev will become more compliant. Especially since European Commissioner Ettinger, as it turned out, does not play along with Yatsenyuk. Still: Ettinger needs to think that no one is frozen in Europe. Otherwise, the European Commissioner will have to seek political asylum in the vicinity of Maidan Nezalezhnosti.
Observed and commented on Oleg Chuvakin
- especially for topwar.ru
- especially for topwar.ru
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