Oles Buzin: Results of mobilization in Ukrainian
Ukraine has completed the third wave of mobilization. The first wave was mainly volunteers from Central and Western Ukraine. There were many people who did not even get into the army - they were denied. Then it became clear that what is happening in the Donbass is no ATO (as the government Yatsenyuk and Poroshenko officially called this operation), this is the real war. That's when volunteers and volunteers diminished.
Results of mobilization in Ukrainian
People began to leave Ukraine, hide in the villages, especially since we officially have no war - we have not declared martial law, and the maximum that threatens a person who did not take a subpoena is an administrative fine in the 51 hryvnia. And that, only in the event that the military registration and enlistment office wins the court in two instances and the decision enters into force. And in the military registration and enlistment office there is no lawyer in practice, therefore no one will file a lawsuit against this person.
The situation is also cynical, because, on the one hand, the government is waging the most real war, but on the other hand, it is as if there is no war, and people are attracted for this by deception. That is, the state also deceives those mobilized: people do not get the status of a combatant, people are actually being tricked into the army - they think that they are facing a term for desertion, but in fact they face a fine of 51 hryvnia. But the overwhelming majority of people here, unfortunately, are watching TV, where the same endless talk show with the same fighting roosters of the oligarchs is going on. They study their legal rights and then defend them later, as it should be in any civilized state.
The third wave of mobilization was very hard. It became clear that the army suffered defeat in the east. Donetsk and Lugansk failed to take, the retreat began. Moreover, there is always a question - will Poroshenko surrender to Mariupol or not to return the LC and the DPR?
Naturally, there is no strength to continue the offensive. Yes, and there is no technology either, because 2 / 3 of the Ukrainian technology is lost in these battles, and there is no money to buy a new one. Just in practice, checked that this war can not be won by the Government of Ukraine. This is a war, above all, of the oligarchs. It does not need people. People are fooling their heads through the TV with paid rogues. And then the people go and die.
Nobody will return parents to children, husbands - to wives, mothers - children. And no one will incur any punishment for it. Find only scapegoats, who are called traitors. They are sought among the generals.
In fact, it is based on what else Charles Maurice de Talleyrand considered more terrible than betrayal - a mistake. In Soviet times, it was said that the KGB was to blame for everything, which was just the instrument of the party. So in Soviet times, the Communist Party was responsible for everything in Ukraine, at the head of which was Leonid Kravchuk. And in our times, political leadership must also be responsible for everything.
The political decision for the ATO in the Donbass took Turchinov, and then Poroshenko. The switchmen, who will be appointed because they allegedly fought badly, are just switchmen. Similarly, during the First World War, Russia was looking for scapegoats and got bogged down in espionage, although in fact it was an erroneous political decision - to leave the country in a war.
From the very beginning it was clear that there was no military solution in the Donbas. I suspect that official Kiev decided on this war for two reasons. On the one hand, Poroshenko, Turchinov, Yatsenyuk underestimated the enemy. They thought they could win, and quickly. But already in Slavyansk it became clear that no quick victory would succeed.
Another reason is very cynical, but I can not discount it. I suspect that the oligarchs who stood behind the Maidan wanted to destroy during the war the main activists, the most ideologically charged people, who joined the volunteer battalions and largely died in the civil war with the ideologically charged insurgents of the DPR and the LPR.
The reason for this war, I believe, was precisely in these two factors, except for the third factor - the United States, which pressured the government in Kiev, primarily because they wanted to take control of shale gas in the Donbas and, thus compete with Gazprom in Europe. This has drawn Ukraine into a long war, which, on the one hand, is civil, and on the other, is the result of a geopolitical confrontation, primarily between Russia and the United States.
And to stop the war, we need political will. Errors need to be corrected.
We need to start the negotiation process. It is necessary to see in people in the southeast not Colorado, but simply people who have their own requirements. It is necessary to understand that a revolution of dignity is also taking place in the southeast, an anti-oligarchic revolution.
Look at the new leaders of the south-east, on the same Zakharchenko. It is evident that this is a young man who is not yet forty years old. He rose from the bottom. This is the one whom Yanukovych strangled in the Donbass in due time, because the PR destroyed any counter-elite of this region so that, God forbid, it did not rise there. And I very much doubt that the DPR and LPR will leave the property to the Donetsk oligarchs who fled to Kiev. If they wanted to do this, then the people would not want it to remain in the hands of escaped oligarchs.
In the south-east there is a social, red revolution. And when people return from the war, they will ask Kiev: and with what joy we have to pay a loan for an apartment, taken in 2008, at the peak of prices, when it cost 100 thousand dollars. Now this apartment can not be sold even for 40 thousand. Why on earth? Why should we be sent into battle by people who hid their children abroad and put them into a major battalion to protect the Cote d'Azur in France? Why should we pay these prices for apartments, for water, for gas and everything else? We were promised Europe, European integration and paradise - and where is this paradise? And in Kiev, too, the revolution will begin.
A revolutionary situation has clearly arisen. In Kiev, the revolution will go along the social-national channel, as in Italy after the First World War, when Mussolini came to power.
Poroshenko understands this, which is why, on the one hand, he is trying to quickly conclude at least some peace in the southeast, at least some truce, so that the red revolution from the east does not come to Dnepropetrovsk, Kharkov, Odessa. On the other hand, he is trying to blow off steam through legal valves, and he has only one legal valve - special elections. And those people who do not see the point in the elections and do not understand why Poroshenko holds them, forget that legally, of course, there are no reasons for these elections. But there is a practical reason for Poroshenko, the leader of the comprador bourgeoisie, and this is only one reason - to throw off steam, replace some political faces that are boring voters with others, urgently so that the uprising does not explode in Kiev.
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