Military Review

The war until the complete exhaustion of the "United Ukraine"


Sad prediction about the future of the former independent state

“War is the continuation of politics by other means,” said the once famous German military historian Karl von Clausewitz. Nowadays, when we are at the turning point of the situation in the as-yet-undeclared war between the “United Ukraine” seized by the junta and the already-born “Novorossiya”, which rebelled against the tyranny of the junta, the thought of the scientist is remembered especially often. I deliberately quote the names of both parties to the conflict, because both entities are now in the hardest political crises: “United Ukraine” is in a crisis of decay, and “Novorossiya” is in a crisis of its birth.

The war really is only a “continuation of politics by other means” at that moment when the previous tools and methods of political struggle are no longer in operation, and the new ones have not yet been created and have not been tested by the war itself. The war has its own murderous (in the direct and figurative sense) logic, which cannot be explained according to the canons of peacetime, it is impossible to reduce it to a calm political discussion of the form “Boris, you are not right.”

In peaceful life, we usually operate only with probabilities and assess their impact on our lives very calmly, but in war we have to talk all the time about the possibilities - our own and our opponent - and take them into account not as ephemeral probabilities, but as visible dangers for ourselves and for its physical existence in a possible future.

Returning to the legacy of Clausewitz, two more of his quotes can be cited, which quite vividly and concisely reveal this approach, the approach of "dangers" rather than "probabilities":

"In such things as war, the mistakes of benevolence are the worst of all." “While the adversary is not crushed, I must fear that he will crush me: therefore, I have no power over my actions, because the adversary dictates the laws to me just as I dictate them to him.” It is this fact, the fact that it is impossible to be “slightly pregnant” or “slightly exposed” in war, and eludes most researchers and forecasters. The fact that in a war the parties act under the pressure of the actions of the enemy, breaks all the seemingly fully verified and balanced political technologies.

War in the real world always continues, either until complete victory, or until the complete exhaustion of both parties. Only in this way - until complete exhaustion or until complete victory. There is no third.

The complete exhaustion of the parties is the impossibility of further war, the impossibility of further mobilization, the impossibility of conducting any offensive operations with decisive objectives.

В stories There have been several examples of such “frozen” conflicts in the world. The freshest of them can still be seen on the map of Southeast Asia - this is mainland China and Kuomintang Taiwan, North and South Korea.

Such conflicts are frozen for decades. Despite a common history, despite family and friendly ties, such a conflict finally separates people - first on different sides of the same barricade, and then on different sides of the state border. The final design of the resulting communities of people can be very different - from full-fledged classical states to very exotic constructions of the type of Bosnia and Herzegovina or Northern and Southern Cyprus, which can either preserve the conflict within the country or break up into two unequal and unequal parts.

Total victory is the physical and political destruction of one of the parties. The Reds expelled whites from everywhere, leaving them no “island of Crimea” to create their “White Russia”; Nigeria completely swallowed Biafra; The Yankees completely cleared the “Dixie country”.

What goals can pursue each of the parties to the Ukrainian conflict? Can the "United Ukraine" junta go to the division of the country? And how prepared is Novorossia to go to the division of the country? Can United Ukraine finally defeat Novorossia? And can “Novorossiya” clean the entire “United Ukraine” from the fascists and ultranationalists?

We will try to calculate these probabilities, understanding that the parties to the conflict perceive them precisely as a danger to themselves.

The probability of the complete destruction of Novorossia is directly proportional to the balance of forces between the parties: 6 of the millions of Novorossiya residents as of 1 September are opposed by at least 35 to the millions of residents of the rest of United Ukraine. The mobilization potentials of the parties are purely mathematically related as 1: 6 - the opposing side can put at least 6 soldiers on every soldier of the Novorossia army.

Hence, there is an imperative for the actions of Novorossia - this is, at a minimum, going to the line Kherson - Zaporozhye - Dnepropetrovsk - Kharkiv, which will still reduce the ratio of the parties to the conflict to more or less equal and at least stop mobilizing people into the punitive battalions of the “United Ukraine” "In the south-east of Ukraine.

Once again, in the existing configuration, pressed to Russia and deprived of access to the sea, in a situation when the main cities of Novorossia are under constant artillery and mortar fire, Novorossia loses the exhaustion fight. The vital task that solves the question of survival is for her to ensure tranquility and rear life in the main cities of Donetsk-Lugansk agglomeration - Donetsk, Gorlovka, Lugansk. This task can be accomplished from a purely military point of view only as a result of reaching certain natural defensive lines — in a clean steppe near Donetsk it will be impossible to organize any solid defense.

New Russia needs a seaport for its subsequent survival, and therefore, sooner or later, it needs to free and secure Mariupol, resolve the issue with Berdyansk and Genichesky, eliminating them as bases for deploying the Navy of the united Ukraine, which, of course, will try to ensure the Mariupol naval blockade obstruct shipping from this port.

New Russia needs the Dnieper as a natural water barrier - two bridges in Kherson, a dam in Nova Kakhovka, a shallow Karkinitsky Gulf - all these geographical features make it easy to organize strategic defense in the south of Novorossiya, in the historical Northern Tavria.

Harder to determine the northern flank of opportunities. It is easy to imagine the front line along the Dnieper, but the largest cities in the region - Zaporozhye and Dnepropetrovsk - in this case turn out to be cut in two. It is easy to understand the positional front along Samara and Orel - and right up to the origins of the Seversky Donets near Volchansk, but what happens to Kharkov if the army of the militia approaches it only 30-40 kilometers?

However, in general, you can imagine some natural boundaries of "Novorossiya", which it will be possible for it to protect and maintain. Moreover, these borders are conveniently defended by the “United Ukraine” - in this case we will get the reincarnation of the next truce of Andrusovo (of course, in the modern edition).

But can “Edin Ukraina” resist this configuration? Most likely no.

The output of the army of Novorossia to such frontiers, as I have already said, will unequivocally raise the question of uprisings in Kharkov, Zaporozhye, Dnepropetrovsk, Nikolaev and Odessa. Having lost Tavria, part of Slobozhanshchina and Dnieper, “United Ukraine” automatically loses all the southeast, and access to the sea in the area of ​​Odessa. Just because the urban uprisings in the rear will multiply and grow like mushrooms after rain, and they can be stopped only at the borders of the root, dormant and indifferent until Central Ukraine.

Therefore, I do not want to upset the emerging political nation of Novoross, but for us this is a war of survival. The sole purpose of "United Ukraine" in this case is our complete destruction as an organized and political force.

In the case of Novorossia, options are possible. Having resolved the issue of the security of their main cities and ensuring economic self-sufficiency due to the unification of the entire southeast of the former United Ukraine under the banner of Novorossia, the new state decides for itself the question of survival and may continue to wage a war of attrition of the United Ukraine. instead seek its complete destruction.

Clausewitz said: “Kind-hearted people may, of course, believe that there is some original way to disarm and defeat the enemy without spilling much blood, they are also free to think that this is the true achievement of the art of fighting. It sounds attractive, but in fact it is a hoax that needs to be discovered. War is a very dangerous thing, in which the worst mistakes come from kindness. ”

The division of the United Ukraine is possible. Recall the 1: 6 ratio now and a possible almost equal ratio tomorrow. If the parties are exhausted in the confrontation on the line of the Dnieper, then we will have two Ukraine. If the regime in Kiev collapses before Novorossia, then, most likely, all that remains of the former “United Ukraine” is the real “Ukrainian Taiwan” from the three most western regions. But already without Transcarpathia.

However, of course, political consultants who serve the conflict on the part of the junta and secretly support it in Moscow, will now try to stop the war. The absolute desire of Kiev now is to preserve the conflict on the ratio of the parties 1: 6 and the subsequent war of attrition in this beneficial configuration. That is why such unprecedented pressure is now being exercised on Novorossia and on Russia directly and indirectly supporting it. The already concluded deals are being canceled, new sanctions are being introduced, the rhetoric of diplomats is being tightened, and the media controlled by the West and Kiev are frenzied.

Is it worth it to give in to all these games of political technologists to the militias, field commanders, the inhabitants of Novorossiya who suffered their victory? I think no. The two existing republics, and even deprived of access to the sea in the form of such a close, but not yet captured Mariupol port, are not viable even in the perspective of four or five months: they may simply not survive the harsh winter.

In war everything is very simple. But the simplest is usually the most difficult.

After all, war is always fought to victory - and the point.

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  1. Balbes_I
    Balbes_I 11 September 2014 10: 05
    And whatever one may say, victory will be for NEW RUSSIA!
  2. VICTOR-61
    VICTOR-61 11 September 2014 10: 05
    That's what Ukrainians get to
  3. Vend
    Vend 11 September 2014 10: 11
    If the regime in Kiev collapses before New Russia, then, most likely, all that remains of the former “United Ukraine” is the real “Ukrainian Taiwan” from the three most western regions. But already without Transcarpathia.

    History will complete the next round. Ukraine will return to its original territorial state. And Novorossia will again return to the world map. Personally, this prospect does not scare me.
    1. CONTROL
      CONTROL 11 September 2014 11: 09
      ... and what to do with the Galicians-dill in Central Dill and at Kieue? who were imprisoned there with the help of the Communist Party in the 50s and 60s on "RRGuiding and directing" posts and positions? to clean? ... Hercules labor, Augean stables ...

      ... it was launched by someone: - out of pity for the bulldog, when chopping off the tail, chop it piece by piece ... with an arrangement for decades ... the result will be pain for centuries!
  4. Rinat 1
    Rinat 1 11 September 2014 10: 18
    Yeah, you don’t even wish the enemy what is happening in Ukraine
  5. parusnik
    parusnik 11 September 2014 10: 19
    Hence the imperative for the actions of Novorossia - this is, at least, access to the Kherson-Zaporozhye-Dnepropetrovsk-Kharkov line, which will nevertheless reduce the ratio of the parties to the conflict to more or less equal and at least stop the mobilization of people in the punitive battalions of "United Ukraine" »In the south-east of Ukraine
    For this, 20 thousand army of Novorossia is not enough .. you need at least the same amount ...
    1. olegglin
      11 September 2014 13: 46
      Military-strategic calculations bypass the systemic crisis of Ukraine, which actually caused the current situation. The crisis intensely destroys the old structure. Typical examples are the state of the Ukrainian Air Force or the failure of mobilization. In a crisis, it will be impossible for Kiev to sit out its opponents. Time will only intensify contradictions. And the elections that Poroshenko and Co. do not have the right to lose will only strengthen the flow of people who want to replenish the counter-elite.
  6. Berrick
    Berrick 11 September 2014 10: 37
    One conclusion is: WAIT!
    FROST and hunger will do their job.
    Well, we, no matter how hard it would be, will have to support our own.

    Russia has always had, is and will be the two main allies of GOD FATHER and Grandfather FROST!
    1. Geo
      Geo 11 September 2014 14: 47
      And again, the "mockels" will be to blame for everything.
      Because, tsuka, they allowed the death of the "brotherly" state.
      They will christen it as "Holodomor-2.0", and continue to write a story about the victory of the freedom-loving Ukain people over the imperialists-Horde from the Moscow principality.
  7. chelovektapok
    chelovektapok 11 September 2014 11: 01
    In general, the article is good. A number of aspects have not been taken into account:
    - Zaporozhye, Kharkov, Dnepropetrovsk, Kherson, Odessa, Nikolaev are objectively not inclined towards an uprising. The majority of the population is confident in the "Aggression of Russia". Consequently, they believe that the Ukrainian Armed Forces are waging a defensive war. Even those who do not support the Kiev puppet regime are still far from realizing the true state of affairs.
    - As a result of "obscene" (c) Lenin. Armistice Novorossiya (LPR, DPR) lost the tactical initiative, which it seized at the cost of enormous destruction and losses. The situation is not improving every day. Punishers are pulling together equipment, weapons, l / s and means of war support. The confrontation line is located near the main cities. The territory remains in the hands of the invaders for more than half. They still have to be escorted out.
    - "Truce" in the process of which the shelling of cities and n / ns of Novorossia does not stop in this form only plays into the hands of the Ukronazis. That is why they went to negotiations with a virtually unilateral ceasefire in the direction of the punishers.
    Tactically, time is not good for Novorossiya. Strategically, autumn, winter at a minimum of energy resources will cause a new "revolution" on the remnants of Ukraine. Justify: historically, war causes an economic crisis, devastation, savagery and impoverishment of the population and the collapse of the state (or whatever instead). An example is practically all the states of Europe. "Time passes and there either the shah dies or the donkey speaks" (c) H.Nasreddin.
    1. shtanko.49
      shtanko.49 11 September 2014 14: 09
      This truce reeks of treachery in Novorossia and an undercover game in the Kremlin. The Ukrainians will strike everyone they find, take all the reserves and hold on to the sudden blow will be very, very difficult.
  8. lex loci
    lex loci 11 September 2014 11: 04
    "Is it worth it to give in to all these games of political strategists, militias, field commanders, the residents of Novorossia who suffered their victory? I think not."

    And I think not. There can be no peace with fascists and terrorists. All the same, having gained strength, they will climb again. And they will fight until they bury them ...
    It is a pity that they were not buried in 1945 and it is a pity that the United States dug them up for their purely utilitarian purposes.
  9. mark_rod
    mark_rod 11 September 2014 11: 06
    Very optimistic ... I would like to believe.
    CONTROL 11 September 2014 11: 17
    Socialism in the USSR collapsed, in particular, because they failed to create a "new man", a "man of the future" (if anyone remembers, the words of Yankovsky in the film "Two Comrades Served", huh? ...), and the fact that succeeded, they were knocked out in 41-45, they were the first to die ... and what is easier, with increased buoyancy, floated up ...

    It is possible to defeat fascism in Ukraine ... how can that janitor shave his beard out of an anecdote ... but what to do "with a mind"? with the Nazis-Bandera?
    In Germany, the question has still not been resolved - neo-Nazis live, and, due to the prevailing political correctness, live ... this is an example!
  11. Nina Zima
    Nina Zima 11 September 2014 11: 22
    The USA sends barbed wire to Ukraine, Hungary - T-72 tanks, Canada - body armor, and "Bloody" Putin - buckwheat, pasta and tea.
  12. aszzz888
    aszzz888 11 September 2014 12: 12
    Going to the borders of the regions is a minimum.
    And better, a salute in honor of the victory will look in Kiev.
    1. Geo
      Geo 11 September 2014 14: 54
      "Satisfied with the ruins of the Reichstag (the Supreme Rada)!"
      Komesk Titarenko (MAESTRO)
  13. atos_kin
    atos_kin 11 September 2014 13: 48
    It's time to issue an ultimatum: until September 18.09.2014, XNUMX, the withdrawal of all armed and under-armed uniforms from the territory of Novorossiya. In case of failure - "who did not repaint, Novorossi are not to blame."
  14. Sergey-8848
    Sergey-8848 11 September 2014 15: 09
    Before the conflict freezes - as before China with cancer. A ceasefire is a common respite. After its inevitable termination (violation), catch as horribly as possible the Ukrainian inhabitant by attacking (and reclaiming their own lands), as well as the continuation of properly built and relentless anti-fascist propaganda.
  15. padded jacket
    padded jacket 11 September 2014 15: 37
    Grandfather is just a hero. The uterus uttered the truth to these fascists (Mariupol):
    1. Des10
      Des10 11 September 2014 23: 16
      yes, 78 years old the grandfather miner ... calmly talked, God grant him health.
      On the other hand - Mariupol supporters of a single nenko.
  16. padded jacket
    padded jacket 11 September 2014 15: 39
    Abandoned tank (near Donetsk):
  17. padded jacket
    padded jacket 11 September 2014 15: 43
    Militias are sent to attack Mariupol and Novoazovsk:
  18. padded jacket
    padded jacket 11 September 2014 16: 47
    Position with a new convoy with humanitarian assistance:
  19. padded jacket
    padded jacket 11 September 2014 17: 45
    Again Lugansk airfield:
  20. padded jacket
    padded jacket 11 September 2014 17: 49
    I haven’t seen it myself, I’ll post it, maybe someone else has looked:
  21. padded jacket
    padded jacket 11 September 2014 17: 54
    BMD-2 in the back of an armored KAMAZ. Interview with a driver (and in truth, a miracle of technology):
  22. padded jacket
    padded jacket 11 September 2014 17: 57
    The militias consider the cease-fire a calm before the storm:
    1. Des10
      Des10 11 September 2014 23: 33
      Thanks for the videos. And the German woman has already been there for a long time, and the fact that standing shoots is really cool.
      Good luck and return home to the militias, volunteers.
  23. Alex
    Alex 11 September 2014 18: 51
    Great article, in-depth analysis. That's just with the war of attrition, IMHO, everything is not so gloomy: here Russia plays for New Russia. Whether spring is now - indeed, the situation is not the best. But the coming winter in the current situation may lead to much greater shifts in the balance of power. Of course, there’s no need to talk about a radical change, but economics and politics can change dramatically and change the mood of nationalists. Here’s the thing: of course, the ceasefire is not entirely beneficial for the militia tactically, but it also gives time to go through the Nazi fire in the heads of the patriots - in the absence of a stimulating influence of the war, you begin to think a little more calmly. And there, look, and the Stalingrad hangover will come, and with less enthusiasm will send their children to the slaughterhouse. Here's just what’s quicker: the sultan will die or the donkey Koran will learn (almost the same way as Nasreddin). If only friends would not leave Novorossia now, when everything is so vague, because everyone is tired of the war ...
  24. Vasily Klopkov
    Vasily Klopkov 12 September 2014 01: 45
    And these morons decided to fence off the wall from Russia. I call morons representatives of the Ukrainian authorities. Those. they, us, ordinary people keep idiots. They want us to smell that the wall is now crucial. This is more important than preparing for the heating season, it is more important than jumping prices, most important. When our communists said that it was necessary to raise the economy, they began to ban them. Because those who came to power, they do not need the country to flourish. They need only ruins to be surrounded by a wall.
  25. sertar
    sertar 12 September 2014 21: 44
    These are the shields that stand on the outskirts of Kiev.
    1. Alex
      Alex 12 September 2014 21: 59
      Quote: sertar
      These are the shields that stand on the outskirts of Kiev.

      It has long been noticed: the less power, the more anger. Let them, they may burst ...