Military Review

A.Parshev: “The danger of war did not increase, but decreased”

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A.Parshev: “The danger of war did not increase, but decreased”


Conflict between Russia and the USA was more likely in the midst of events in Crimea, the expert believes

A well-known Russian writer and publicist, reserve colonel Andrei Parshev in an exclusive interview with KM.RU talks about the current state of Russian-American relations, pretty spoiled by the events in Crimea and Novorossiya, and gives his prediction as to how serious the conflict between the two powers can be and what form it can accept.

- The Ukrainian crisis is developing, and we all worry about the prospects - will the civil war in Ukraine not lead to a world war with the participation of Russia?

- Of course, I don’t want to look like Western journalists, who have no paragraph, “Putin wanted,” “Putin is afraid,” “Putin is going.” There are no telepaths in nature, and no one knows what Putin wanted and what he is going to do. One can only guess. At the same time, it should be understood that the management makes decisions based not only on open sources of information, but also on intelligence information about which we know nothing. Therefore, we can judge the correctness of their decisions only on indirect grounds. I think our leadership acted in February-March on the basis of the danger of a large-scale armed conflict with the United States and its satellites.

“But in the spring you said that there are no real opportunities for the war of the West against Russia ...”

- Yes, it was so in the spring and it remains so now. But here on my side was a little slyness. Our “Western partners” cannot organize a “Blitzkrieg” in Hitler’s style or even a limited one - like in Iraq - they don’t have such military groupings near the borders of Russia and cannot create them in the foreseeable time. That is, such a war, purely for military and logistical reasons, the United States now can not hold. But a local conflict with the threat of transition to the military stage was quite possible, and it was in 2014 that was possible until March. Now it is impossible, that is, we can say this: during 2014, the threat of war for us did not intensify, but weakened.

- And what signs of the danger of conflict do you mean?

- Of course, indirect. It is difficult to expect that the main players, especially the Americans, frankly spoke about their plans in the current crisis. We don’t know what our and friendly special services got for the leadership of Russia. But there are some events that need explanation, but they also explain something.

First, why was the request of the Crimean Republic to join Russia considered in such a fire order? Some believe that if this state had existed in a fully independent state for some time, not one day, and only then entered the Russian Federation, we would have avoided the current accusations of “annexing Crimea”. I think that the reason for the rush was not that someone did not think of something, and the situation required precisely quick and irreversible decisions.

The second point: in social networks there were reports of emergency measures to strengthen the defense of Crimea, I will not detail, and what is important to note - in particular, coastal defense. And this despite the fact that in Crimea there was already a good Black Sea defense system fleet, which existed under an agreement with Ukraine, and the Ukrainian funds that we got, are also something of themselves. The Ukrainian fleet does not constitute a threat of this level. So, our leadership was afraid of some more serious enemy from the sea.

And third, there were reports that the officers of all our departments, where there is military service, were not recommended to go on vacation abroad this year. The situation is unprecedented, although otherwise there are no typical signs of a threatened situation (mobilization, or at least a delay in demobilization).

- Of course, we don’t know what information came to the Russian leadership, but in your opinion, what threats were we talking about?

- Those who seized power in Ukraine this year did not skimp on threats against Russia, but apparently the most dangerous and, most importantly, real danger, was the denunciation of agreements on the deployment of the Russian fleet and troops in the Crimea. This was demanded by some of the leaders of the coup, and now ordinary Western journalists are talking about this scenario as something obvious and well-known: “Even with great displeasure, the Kremlin must respond to the transition of the only Russian naval port in warm waters military alliance, the priority of which is to counter Russia "(" Daily Telegraph ").

Most likely, the organizers of the Maidan assumed the following sequence of actions: after a coup d'etat and some stabilization of the regime (presidential elections): agreements are denounced, maybe even under the guise of an economic dispute over gas debts, and as a result, Russian ships leave Sevastopol, Russian troops leave the Crimea after a while the base goes to the Americans.

In the event of resistance to Russia, a group of NATO ships enters the Black Sea, more powerful than our fleet, and American troops are stationed at the Ukrainian military bases in the Crimea and around - in principle, this does not contradict any treaties. This has already begun in reality: “Two US Navy warships entered the Black Sea: the USS Ramage (DDG-61) missile destroyer and the Mount Whitney USS control ship with 6 marines on board. This February 600 reported "Interfax". "

Well, why did they need the Marines there, for the landing, sorry, where?

- But after all, NATO, with the exception of the Black Sea powers (Bulgaria, Romania, Turkey), cannot enter the fleets into the Black Sea due to the “Montreux Convention”?

- This convention, alas, may be circumvented. Even if Turkey - the guarantor of the convention - does not take part in the conflict - restrictions for non-Black Sea countries still provide great opportunities for our opponents: they can enter ships into the Black Sea with a displacement of up to 10 thousand tons, totally 30 thousand tons for each country, and in NATO 28!

But the main thing: the United States could strengthen Ukraine with its ships, simply changing the flag on them and keeping the key specialists on board. How did the Germans a hundred years ago, transferring your battleship to Turkey. And the US fleet is huge - it is more powerful than the hypothetical combined fleet of all other countries of the Earth. It is quite possible to single out from it, as it were, for Ukraine a certain number of missile destroyers and cruisers of the Ticonderog type, which even now constantly dangle on our shores.

But most likely this conflict would have managed without NATO at first, just as the invasion of Iraq - the United States is easier to recognize Ukraine as its “important ally” than to bother with the collective decision of the North Atlantic bloc. If necessary, a decision could be promptly taken by Congress. Could participate and England.

If a crisis of this type had erupted when the Crimea was under the control of the Ukrainian authorities, even if the putsch ones, our leadership would have to make a difficult decision. At that time, in February, our troops in the Crimea were opposed by a smaller group of the best Ukrainian troops with Western commanders ... who knew half a year ago that someone could deal with all these troops without shooting and blood?

And if there were at least small divisions of Americans on the territory of the Ukrainian military units, I don’t know if it would have been possible to do something without a military conflict. Most likely - not. American leaders lacked 2014 reaction and imagination in March, now they probably bite their elbows.

The results for us would be almost disastrous. The matter is not even in the fleet: the configuration of forces would take the form that our positions on the Black Sea would be very weak. The pressure would continue, demanding the return of Abkhazia to Georgia; and in the conditions of the superiority of the enemies at sea, it would be difficult to fight.

It is very important for Americans to show now that they are still strong and define the face of the world. That being an American ally is good. And they are constantly trying to "replay" the war in Abkhazia and South Ossetia - but for the moment it is almost impossible. Despite the image losses due to the annexation of the Crimea (does this have any significance when the United States easily breaks the treaty?), Militarily, Russia practically put the Black Sea basin under its control.

Americans actually know the military well history. It is difficult for Russia to inflict a military defeat in a direct attack on its main territory. But wars on the periphery, where Russia cannot use the full power of its ground forces, are sometimes successful for our opponents “with sea backs”, as the Crimean and Russian-Japanese wars have shown. So the plan for squeezing Russia out of the Crimea, if it was - was, in general, reasonable. Attacking the US military would hardly have dared, and escalated to nuclear weapons It was unlikely - yet this is not Russian territory at that time.

What happened in reality in March and what confused all the plans - no one in the West could see in a nightmare. Now the maximum that the Americans can threaten us with is the deployment of warehouses and several battalions in the Baltic States. It is almost safe for us at this stage, in any case it is not the "Great Army" of Napoleon.

What remains for the Americans now? Do an innocent face and deny everything. This is what they do. “We have always respected the provisions of the agreement on the deployment of the Black Sea Fleet between Ukraine and Russia. We never had any plans for Sevastopol, ”said the deputy. NATO Secretary General Vershbow during a video link following the summit of the Alliance in Wales.

But, it seems, no one in Russia accused them of anything at the official level?
Author:
Originator:
http://www.km.ru/world/2014/09/09/protivostoyanie-na-ukraine-2013-14/748244-aparshev-opasnost-voiny-ne-vozrosla-umens
23 comments
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  1. Vitaly Anisimov
    Vitaly Anisimov 10 September 2014 18: 21
    +13
    With Ukraine you need to finish and as soon as possible .. Otherwise, Syria on the Russian border.! I hope everything will be over before the end of the year.
    1. 41 REGION
      41 REGION 10 September 2014 18: 36
      +7
      Quote: MIKHAN
      With Ukraine you need to finish and as soon as possible .. Otherwise, Syria on the Russian border.! I hope everything will be over before the end of the year.

      Ukraine is already a consequence, and the reason pind_stan would not hurt to get to this mass-entertainer
      1. Vitaly Anisimov
        Vitaly Anisimov 10 September 2014 18: 51
        +3
        Quote: 41 REGION
        Quote: MIKHAN
        With Ukraine you need to finish and as soon as possible .. Otherwise, Syria on the Russian border.! I hope everything will be over before the end of the year.

        Ukraine is already a consequence, and the reason pind_stan would not hurt to get to this mass-entertainer

        There is an aspen nest .. Here, only Russia has little strength and influence (if only poplars and maces)))) But this is an extreme case .. bully
      2. Nick
        Nick 10 September 2014 19: 39
        +2
        Quote: 41 REGION
        Ukraine is already a consequence, and the reason pind_stan would not hurt to get to this mass-entertainer

        The time has not come yet, but time is working for us ...
        1. Oleg Sobol
          Oleg Sobol 10 September 2014 20: 49
          +4
          There are no telepaths in nature
          I would not say so categorically ...
          Now it is impossible, that is, we can say this: during the 2014 year, the threat of war for us did not increase, but weakened.
          Indeed, we did not lose time, but we won it.
          agreements are denounced, perhaps even under the guise of an economic dispute over gas debts, and as a result, Russian ships leave Sevastopol, Russian troops leave Crimea, and after a while the base becomes available to the Americans.
          Crimea is still not a banana republic ... but the train of thought is clear.
          At that time, in February, our troops in Crimea were opposed by an equally smaller group of the best Ukrainian troops with zapadentsami commanders
          Is that so?
          And if there were at least small divisions of Americans on the territory of the Ukrainian military units, I don’t know if it would have been possible to do something without a military conflict. Most likely - not. American leaders lacked 2014 reaction and imagination in March, now they probably bite their elbows.
          You can bite your toenails ... But why give them such a "brilliant" idea. Let your hands spoil.
          What remains for the Americans now? Make an innocent mine and deny everything. This is what they are doing.
          Repent, prostrate yourself, beat your forehead, preferably in concrete jambs from the corner ...
      3. Postscriptum
        Postscriptum 10 September 2014 20: 37
        +3
        With Ukraine, in fact, is already over. It’s just that we are witnessing a certain process somewhat stretched in time, in contrast to the demise of the USSR, which fell apart literally in an instant.
      4. Oldwiser
        Oldwiser 11 September 2014 03: 04
        +2
        crash the dollar / euro pair?
    2. Karabanov
      Karabanov 10 September 2014 21: 25
      +4
      Quote: MIKHAN
      C Ukraine needs to end and as soon as possible ...

      It’s scary to think that such words could have occurred even a couple of years ago ... Let’s not be like demonized Ukrainian forums like a censor ... And call it a junta.
      Parshev is a competent political scientist and economist, although he says that there are no telepaths, but through careful analysis he makes wonderful forecasts (abruptly than telepaths), which are confirmed in the future. Of course, we don’t know much, but definitely worth listening to his words.
    3. Rusin Dima
      Rusin Dima 11 September 2014 07: 22
      0
      Totally agree
  2. mig31
    mig31 10 September 2014 18: 22
    +10
    Before thinking about any open military attacks against Russia, American strategists calculate their vulnerability a hundred times, so sleep soundly, but with the wrong hands they rake up masters, we will be vigilant ...
    1. matross
      matross 10 September 2014 19: 49
      +1
      Quote: mig31
      American strategists calculate their vulnerability a hundred times, so sleep well

      Any aggressive war begins with the confidence of the aggressor in victory. However, wars begin, and aggressors do not always win them. Strategists can miscalculate, they can pursue the interests of, say, TNCs, not the United States ... So what about sleep, and even calm, I think you got excited hi
  3. psychologist
    psychologist 10 September 2014 18: 22
    +9
    PROBABILITY ALWAYS EXIST !! The main thing is always to be on the alert! and make it clear that if anything - the answer is inevitable !! and keep your sun in line !!
  4. azbukin77
    azbukin77 10 September 2014 18: 24
    +2
    Quote: MIKHAN
    With Ukraine you need to finish and as soon as possible .. Otherwise, Syria on the Russian border.! I hope everything will be over before the end of the year.
    Yes, your words to God in the ears! Everything will be so!
  5. Giant thought
    Giant thought 10 September 2014 18: 26
    +7
    Well done, they returned Crimea to Russia promptly, and the NATO missed our operation, now it is our outpost, and it is unlikely that any sane person would slip into the Crimea from us.
    1. Renat
      Renat 10 September 2014 18: 29
      +3
      Crimea is YES. And what happens next in the undercover war, we, dear forum users, can only guess, and even then with a small degree of probability.
  6. dimdimich71
    dimdimich71 10 September 2014 18: 28
    +2
    The confrontation, we are not used to it, I think Russia with honor and dignity will come out of this, the main thing is warned ...
  7. borisjdin1957
    borisjdin1957 10 September 2014 18: 31
    +1
    from the Don.
    The war can happen through fault: sixes: Regional Committee. The Kiev District Committee is capable of anything to lick the back of Geyrope!
    1. Lelek
      Lelek 10 September 2014 19: 48
      +3
      Quote: borisjdin1957
      . Kiev district committee is capable of anything,


      For half a year now, the Kiev clique has been provoking Russia into hostilities, but it is not getting involved in any way. Poroshenko (Pinya Valtsman) did not fulfill his task. The smoked puppeteer gave him a "-2". It seems that the next step will be removal. So the puppeteer will look for a replacement and, of course, not from the "pigeons". Who is the most ardent "hawk" in Kiev? Here among the flock there is a competition - "I, I, I-the most, the most." bully
  8. Bronik
    Bronik 10 September 2014 18: 31
    +1
    We have already begun to equip the Crimean coast, soon the "rare bird" will dare to approach us. Well, as usual, time is pushing.
  9. Ober.K
    Ober.K 10 September 2014 18: 33
    +3
    Vivat, Russia !!! And now, like the Phoenix bird, she is once again reborn from the "ashes" !!! fellow
  10. Shadowcat
    Shadowcat 10 September 2014 19: 28
    -2
    * facespalm * Afiget which expert against the background of the promised new package of sanctions and statements at the last meeting of NATO
    1. smart75
      smart75 10 September 2014 20: 17
      +4
      Parshev is truly an expert.
      The man who was able in 1999 year to foresee the war in Iraq and Syria.
      Read Why Russia Isn't America and Why America Is Coming.

      Born in the family of a soldier. In 1978, he graduated from Moscow State Technical University. N. E. Bauman, specialty "Automatic control systems."
      After graduation, he worked in the field of creating special equipment. From 1992 year on teaching at the Academy of Border Service. He is engaged in scientific work, exploring the history of the economic policy of the Russian state.
      Colonel of the Federal Border Guard Service, awarded with medals of the USSR and the Russian Federation.

      Doesn't use the word "fuck" in books
      1. Styx
        Styx 10 September 2014 20: 44
        +3
        I didn’t have time to write down my letters, I found your comment - completely agree !! I also read and was shocked about the Middle East wars that a person wrote this ~ 10 years before, and why Russia wasn’t America — if you had made it mandatory to study, if not in schools, then at least in institutes of economics and politics, well, something like that :)
        But does he have something new?
        1. smart75
          smart75 10 September 2014 23: 54
          +1
          Thank you.
          These books were recommended to me in 2003 year.

          New:
          "How can Russia overtake America" ​​2013

          www.e-reading.me/book.php?book=1021555
          1. Styx
            Styx 11 September 2014 10: 37
            0
            Och bashoe especially thanks for the reference, I’ll swing in the evening from the computer.
            For Koteykina Shadow: I think you will not regret it, read it! It’s very, by the way, it’s a pity that the author knows so little, especially his Russia is not America, in general everyone’s handbook :) my opinion is clear
      2. Shadowcat
        Shadowcat 11 September 2014 06: 25
        +1
        Eh ... That's why I do not make an expert what I foresaw and predicted the results for Iraq and Syria? ((
        But for the purpose of education I will familiarize myself with the material you have indicated.

        P.S. Visual evidence of how the crowd reacts. Alas, I came across emotions.
        1. smart75
          smart75 11 September 2014 13: 37
          0
          I'm sorry that you did not publish your forecasts.
          I would love to read them.

          By the way, I largely disagree with Parshev, but this does not prevent me (like you) from respecting him.

          Any unfamiliar thinking person deserves respect until his behavior proves the opposite.
  11. Lukerya Weaver
    Lukerya Weaver 10 September 2014 19: 35
    +1
    Exactly. And our liberals howl that nothing terrible would have happened even if NATO had settled in Crimea. And Putin correctly said that the Americans are good guys, but it is better if they visit us in Crimea, and not we to them.
    1. Styx
      Styx 10 September 2014 20: 38
      0
      aha, as in the Baltic states? :)))) we can not need them there and to visit? :))) otherwise their host complex immediately develops
  12. parafoiler
    parafoiler 10 September 2014 20: 06
    0
    Only the guilty are acquitted. Or as we have in the famous saying: the cap is lit on a thief.
  13. Vitaly Anisimov
    Vitaly Anisimov 10 September 2014 21: 46
    +3
    But at its core "Project Ukraine", in principle, made a bunch of corpses, the industry collapsed .. finally .. Refugees in Russia! Russia has been squeezed out of the EU .. But it’s not over yet! negative
  14. diz1975
    diz1975 10 September 2014 23: 23
    +3
    It is necessary not to end with Ukraine; it must be freed from Bandera and fascists.
    Quote: MIKHAN
    With Ukraine you need to finish and as soon as possible .. Otherwise, Syria on the Russian border.! I hope everything will be over before the end of the year.
  15. Alfizik
    Alfizik 11 September 2014 00: 09
    +1
    In no case should one trust either the fascists or those who support them. Is it time to openly and universally declare: the United States supports the Nazis. Just like that, bluntly. Maybe then the Empire of lies will stir up, singing such psaki, harf, mccain on a Freedom torch?
  16. prishelec
    prishelec 11 September 2014 02: 46
    0
    Russia is heading in the right direction, the main thing is not to retreat just before, I don’t think that NATO will start a war against Russia, because in this case they won’t win, maybe there will be problems, but I personally am ready to endure all the problems if only Russia finally takes - the upper hand over this bourgeoisie and the imperialist infection, which destroys hundreds of thousands and millions of lives on the planet!