Chop the bough. But not the ones you need ...
Well, actually, that's all, it remains a bit: cut the cattle, take out the black soil, close factories, plants, thermal power plants, etc., etc. To buy in Europe or anywhere else in the West. So, it turns out, for which the official authorities in Kiev, who came to the helm as a result of the coup d'etat, forced the bloody ATO in the Donbass, and not to start negotiations with representatives of the Crimean autonomy, Donetsk and Lugansk regions, about federalization. In Ukraine, the West needs only sales markets, and not a strong and industrialized country, a willing or unwitting competitor.
For the first time, it was possible to guess about this during the first attempt to “tame” Ukraine in the 2003-2004 years, when it demonstrated impressive economic growth rates (more than 12% per year). Then she was “pulled up” by the so-called “Orange Revolution”, as a result of which the country plunged into economic chaos under the guise of “reforms” and the notorious “European democratization”.
After 10 years, in 2013, she, Ukraine, did not demonstrate anything impressive, but she was kept afloat in the sea of the global crisis. And the West still needed it as a potential huge sales market for the products of the Western economy, engulfed in crisis and depression. And as a result, and this Western Wishlist appeared the so-called "euromaidan" and "revolution gidnosty".
But, in fact, its consequences. Most impressive: in the Chernobyl zone began construction of a repository for spent nuclear fuel (SNFS). Because all 15 units at four Ukrainian NPPs are planning to transfer from Russian to American nuclear fuel. And if the Russians took away their spent supplies and disposed of somehow at home, then US laws prohibit the importation of spent nuclear fuel into American territory. And therefore ISF for spent American “good” is being built near Chernobyl. To the Americans was profitable. And in which case, so little that no one seemed. If it explodes, there will be a “European” Ukrainians and a new Chernobyl, and the old Fukushima in addition. So say all environmentalists. But who listens to them? We are integrating ...
Or an example: the Ministry of Energy and Coal Industry of Ukraine reports, citing US Under Secretary for Trade Matthew Murray, that there are proposals from US companies for the supply of coal of necessary brands to Ukraine. I ask your attention: to Ukraine, where there is a coal Donbass. But the fact is that for the first time in a long period Ukraine will begin to import, not export, namely, I repeat, to import thermal coal to meet the needs of thermal power plants. From Australia, USA and New Zealand. Why? Yes, because the delivery of Ukrainian fuel is difficult because of the destroyed infrastructure of the Donbass.
Ukrainian officials claim that everyone in the Donbas destroyed Russian militants. But everyone knows the truth: the war in Ukraine is also conducted in order to “clean up” the Donbass. Not only from militants or coal, but in general from everything. Because it is necessary to extract shale gas there and to replace Russian gas supplies to Europe. This is a far-reaching plan for overseas sponsors of “revolutions and gidnosty”, which have already even sent the son of US Vice President Mr. Biden-Junior to steer promising fields. And Ukraine? And, as you understand, it will cost democracy ...
In short, Western companies are ready to supply everything that is missing in Ukraine or disappears in it as a result of the civil war. This is one of the secrets why the war in the Donbass can last forever. And why, under its guise, Ukraine will be turned into a limitrop, completely resigned by the Westrope, and who does not dare to utter a word against it. Otherwise, the rations will be cut ...
Well, the lack of the necessary risks generally stop still working ukroeconomy. For example, according to the Ministry of Energy and Coal Industry, already today at the Ukrainian TPPs there is an acute shortage of grade A coal, which is used at half of the country's stations. And the Ukrainian coal reserves are such that with optimistic developments they will be enough for 50 days, with pessimistic - for 11 days. And the Americans - right there. And the Australians with the New Zealanders and other Democrats will catch up so that if you please, eat do not wear your hair.
And of the same level, and a presidential decree signed on 27 on August 2014, banning the export to Russia of military goods and dual-use items, with the exception of space technology.
This act of the president is only a public continuation (or forerunner, considering that he allegedly worked before) of the law on sanctions of Ukraine against Russia, adopted by 14 in August of this year. This law, as we remember, provides for the introduction of all sorts of restrictions in trade and economic relations with Russia. The National Security and Defense Council (NSDC) of Ukraine is granted the right to block assets, restrict trade operations, completely or partially terminate the transit of resources, flights and traffic across Ukraine, prevent the withdrawal of capital, suspend economic and financial obligations, revoke licenses, limit or terminate provision postal services.
The NSDC can also restrict or terminate the activities of the media, including on the Internet, prohibit or restrict the entry of sea vessels into the territorial waters or ports of Ukraine and aircraft into the airspace of Ukraine, terminate trade agreements, joint projects and industrial programs in certain countries. spheres, in particular, in the field of security and defense.
This decree and the law on sanctions against Russia are not news for the current Ukrainian rulemaking. They all seem to relate to the economy, but they are also painted in purely political, even geopolitical colors. Ukraine is being forced to chop the branch on which it sits, and make it dependent exclusively on the West. Not only politically, but also economically.
In fact, these are the steps of Ukraine towards its own economic suicide, only concealed by thoughtlessness about the alleged inevitable "death of the enemy" - Russia, which allegedly leads to "aggression" against Ukraine. And if it's simpler, it's just an attempt to urinate against the wind, and then be surprised at the unpleasant smell on your own clothes. Because the main result of these steps will not be the weakening of Russia, but, on the contrary, its strengthening. And just the Ukrainian economy will weaken. If she survives at all.
And that's why. The termination of trade with Russia by the Ukrainian that it needs will entail the processes of Russian import substitution. First of all, everything that is produced in Ukraine. And in Russia, there is money, desire, and the will of President Vladimir Putin. And if Russia replaces and begins to produce everything that used to go to it from Ukraine, then this will be the first major nail in the coffin of the Ukrainian economy. It will forever lose sales markets in Russia. But the law of economics is simple: to produce enough - you have to sell it somewhere else and, at least, discourage investments. Or, at most, make a profit.
And how interruptions in transit can help Russia build the South Stream bypassing Ukraine and finally deprive it of transit opportunities without any war, and there is no reason to say. Everything is on the surface, as they say, the sighted see ...
As a result, the result of any sanctions may be the exact opposite of the idea: Ukraine wants to punish Russia with sanctions, and will punish itself. And Russia, which will switch to the production of everything it needs independently, will only become stronger from this. Incidentally, this also applies to Western sanctions against Russia: it wants to weaken, but it seeks the opposite ...
In other words, the economic war with Russia is unprofitable for Ukraine in all respects - both political and economic. From a political point of view, all these acts seem to be justified. The West, whose ally Ukraine seeks to be at any price, has taken sanctions against Russia in retaliation for its policy against Ukraine. Both the developers and the law and the decree were spoken loudly: if the West accepted this for our sake, then we cannot accept sanctions lower in level than the Western ones. Everything seems to be correct. But politics is a matter of not only the possible, but also the need of the country and its people. And the possible losses in the economy, which would entail a worsening of people's lives, discredit both Ukrainian politics and Ukrainian politicians. The people, after all, may not understand the highbrow patriotic schemes of superpatriots and send them on foot to an erotic tour in the next parliamentary elections.
The sanctions, in particular, provide for the possibility of blocking the transit of Russian gas to Europe in Ukraine. And here political “ears” stick out especially brightly: all this is done to please the main sponsor and inspirer of the current Ukrainian authorities - the United States. It is they who are seeking, at any price, the cessation of gas transit from Russia to Europe and its replacement with shale gas from America. Or American, but extracted by the American companies in the cleaned Donbas. Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk, whom Washington blessed to occupy the chair, even threatened to resign if he was not allowed to privatize (in favor of the United States?) 49% of the Ukrainian CTA, which had previously been the "sacred inviolable cow" of the state property of Ukraine.
Ukraine’s demand for European companies to buy Russian gas on the Ukrainian-Russian border, and not on the western border of Ukraine, is working on a possible transit disruption. If transit breaks down in any way, or at least interruptions occur with it and Europe begins to freeze, then America will be anyway well. And Ukraine? This is a question of questions ...
And economic losses from sanctions answer this question. Even today, the invasion of politics and politicking in the trade and economic sphere has brought a reduction in trade between the two countries by 25%. And whether still will be!
The total losses from the sanctions are already forecast at 7 billion dollars. A loss from the termination of transit - in 2 billion. The same dollars. Total - 9 billion "greens" only on the restrictions.
The second nail in the coffin of the Ukrainian economy can also "draw" from the sanctions. And it lies in the fact that Ukraine may lose the reputation of a predictable and negotiable and able to fulfill the obligations of a partner. So, it will lose its investment attractiveness. And in Ukraine, which today is in dire need of money (and preferably not only in loans, but also in investments), money will not go. And not only investments, but also loans. If the solvency of the country falls, which lenders will lend to a poor country? That's right, only those that will speculate in Ukraine and demand political changes in return or property for nothing.
But in Ukraine, as Innocent Adyasov from RIA Novosti once wrote, since March they have been discussing the idea of “punishing” Russia by nationalizing its assets in Ukraine. The author publishes a list of enterprises that will become a “punishment”, and quite rightly notes that regional lawlessness will begin in nationalization: the local “princes” and the oligarchs close to them will want to punish and profit at their level. For example, displacing competitors.
And a process will begin that will be very difficult to control or stop. And he will hit on the business reputation of Ukraine.
Infringing on the private property of competitors or “enemies” for political reasons and without a court decision, introducing unmotivated sanctions and bans, violating trade agreements, disrupting planned transactions affecting all of Europe (and even the world), effectively blackmailing its business partners, Ukraine will go beyond framework of "war with Russia". And in fact, it will inflame on the foundations of the entire world economy and international trade, on the principles of world economy and trade relations. But silenok to fight with the world, it seems to me, Ukraine does not have a trace. They, silenok, it seems, only all sorts of nonsense and enough ...
... There is such a very Negender anecdote about a completely blind lover of female charms, who, at his request, led the one-eyed to the blocs ... through the forest. Here they go through the forest, the blind man clings to the shoulder in front of the one-eyed man walking and suddenly hears his cry: “Here, bl ... d!”. “What happened?” Asks the blind. "Yes, I ran into a bitch," replies the one-eyed man, who was also beaten out with a second eye. And the blind man pushes him away, comes forward and loudly, joyfully says: “Hello girls!”. Type reached the goal. This trip to the blast ... frighteningly resembles the current "enticing" of Ukraine, which lead it to a happy future - they do not cut the bitches and they do not count on those ...
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