Military Review

March ahead

March ahead

The events of recent days have marked the emergence of the conflict in Ukraine at a new stage. After the march of prisoners held in Donetsk and the beginning of the offensive of the army of Novorossia, the option of peace negotiations for a long time leaves the real agenda - now calls for a cease-fire are finally becoming only an element of the information war. Even if Poroshenko now agrees to negotiate with the rebels - the war will not stop.

The propaganda effect, which Poroshenko wanted to achieve by holding a military parade in honor of the Independence Day of Ukraine in Kiev on Sunday, turned out to be completely erased by the “march of shame” that took place on the same day in besieged Donetsk. Several dozen prisoners who were guarded throughout the central square of the capital of Donbass not only had an extremely demoralizing effect on potential recruits from the west and center of Ukraine, but also marked the end of a very important stage during the Ukrainian conflict. He is rapidly losing the signs of civil war between the two parts of Ukrainian society, turning into a war between two states - Ukraine and Novorossia.

It does not matter that Novorossia is for the time being just a rebel proto-state, which still does not have the basic signs of statehood. Ukraine was also formed randomly from the south-western part of Russia. It does not matter that both of these states have no future - because sooner or later, together or in turn, they will be part of Russia. Now they have moved from a war within one state to a war between two hostile ones. And if in Kiev they persistently call the rebels as terrorists and for the sake of their own peace of mind they say that most of them are Russian citizens, in Novorossia from now on they finally perceive Ukraine as a hostile state, with which it is impossible to agree on anything and which can only be defeated.

“These people killed the Ukrainians in us — now we are Russians!” - these words spoken by one of the speakers at the rally in Donetsk can be considered an epigraph to the new stage of the war in Ukraine. Russian - and it does not matter who the residents of Donbass considered themselves to be, Ukrainians or Russians. Because the Ukrainians are the Russians, the Little Russians, who were persistently imposed Russophobic identity.

The cleansing that the Ukrainians underwent during the conflict that has been going on for six months already returned parts of them an understanding of their own Russianness - and, on the contrary, the other part even more believed in their peculiarity and uniqueness, separated themselves from the Russian world. On both sides of the front, people who belong to the same nation, the same faith (mostly - not counting the Western Uniates), the same culture (Soviet-Russian) are fighting - but they have completely different self-identification. Some people feel their belonging to the Russian world - others are jumping to Europe. The military confrontation hardened both sides - and now only the victory of one of the parties can save the united state of Ukraine. The only question is whether a united Ukraine is needed by anyone.

“Federalization does not suit us,” said Alexander Zakharchenko, the Prime Minister of the Donetsk Republic, on Sunday. DNR considers only its own independence from Ukraine. Such statements were heard from the leaders of the New Russia before. Moreover, already at the beginning of the summer, after the resumption of the Kiev military operation, it became clear that there were only chances for a confederation. But it was after the “march of shame” in Donetsk (and stories with a humanitarian convoy) was actually passed the point of no return.

This does not mean, however, that conversations about federalization-confederalization will disappear from the lexicon of Russia and the West — on the contrary, they are now even getting stronger (as can be seen from recent statements by the German vice-chancellor). But this will be only a sign of propaganda and diplomatic struggle - in reality, the chances of preserving a united Ukraine in any form no longer exist.

Russia throughout the conflict has consistently advocated a united Ukraine, saying that it can only be preserved through negotiations, and war only buries hopes for that. Formally, Moscow is still talking about negotiations - on Monday, Sergey Lavrov urged the West to change its rates in Ukraine: “I think that with respect to Ukraine there will come an awareness of the complete stalemate in betting on support for the civil war, and that the leadership of Ukraine will use part own people, and peace reigns in Ukraine. " The minister called on the West "to influence the Ukrainian side in terms of recognizing its responsibility for their country and in terms of understanding that this is not a struggle for Ukraine against Russia, but a struggle for Ukraine as a state in which everyone can live comfortably."

At the meeting in Minsk, Putin will also talk about a united Ukraine - suggesting Poroshenko to go to peace negotiations with Novorossia. Not because Moscow is concerned about the preservation of Poroshenko’s power, the Ukrainian oligarchs or she doesn’t want to further aggravate relations with the West — but because it is easier for Ukraine to reintegrate with Russia than for Ukraine, which has split into several parts.

This is not voiced by the Kremlin - but this is precisely the main national interest of Russia. It is not to cut off a part of Ukraine, Novorossia (albeit in the amount of the entire Southeast), and throw Little Russia and Galicia into the Atlantic cauldron. And in order to methodically, stubbornly, using all means, to fight for the retention of the whole of Ukraine in its orbit.

There is no imperialism or aggression in this - it is a natural reaction of a healthy person to an attempt to cut off his infected part from him. How do you - on the ankle, knee or groin? This question is not facing Russia. How long will the treatment take, how it will be, how many difficult and risky operations are necessary - all this is discussed and everything is possible. Except for one thing, consent to an amputation that foreign “pest doctors” are trying to dislodge. That is why the Kremlin is not in a hurry with the recognition of Novorossia - you need to save everything.

New Russia is already on the mend, and it can positively affect the rest of Ukraine. Not immediately - and, alas, not at all by homeopathic remedies - but Little Russia will recover. Internal shocks and external lesions will accelerate this process. It could also be slowed down if Kiev behaved smarter and more cautious, froze the situation in the East, ceasing the military operation, closed in on itself, trying to keep what was still his. But the stubborn attempt to crush the uprising led to the fact that Kiev had already missed the possibility of a truce.

Now agreement to negotiate - even if it is received in Minsk or shortly after Minsk (and a heavy military defeat on the eastern front) - will not fundamentally change anything. No, of course, negotiations will begin, and some kind of truce may even be reached on them - but it will be fragile and unreal. New Russia no longer agrees not only on federalization, but also on the preservation of present-day Ukraine as such, understanding that it will pose a constant danger to it.

Russia and Novorossia have only one reason to freeze the situation for some time - in order to observe in Ukrainian silence the collapse of the economy and the collapse of the economy. That is, to wait a month or two for further weakening of the Ukrainian state - in order to continue the struggle for the whole of Ukraine. It will go in all forms, but the main military will remain - the war will not end in the coming weeks and even months.

It can be suspended, interrupted by “very important” negotiations and even by “real agreements” - but until the fall of the pro-Western power in Kiev (not necessarily due to the onset of the Novorossiysk army, an internal revolution is possible and even correct) this battle will not end. Reassembling of Ukraine is possible only after its completion - if, of course, Novorossia agrees to this and she has enough strength to do so.

If not, then dividing Ukraine into two or three states will be the beginning of a new stage of crisis, during which Moscow’s goals will remain the same. And then the official reunification of Novorossia with Russia will be completely natural - after the death of the Square, the only reason will disappear and continue to preserve the formal independence of Novorossia.

But all this is a medium and long-term perspective. At the same time, the West will not play a decisive role in the near future of the Ukrainian drama this autumn — its late consent to federalization changes nothing, and the United States will not allow Poroshenko’s support for Europe. Merkel's conciliatory remarks that she “would like the resolution of the Ukrainian crisis not to cause harm to Russia” are beautiful, but meaningless at the stage that the Ukrainian crisis has already reached. Moreover, against the background of the ongoing policy of sanctions and blockade by the West - that is, the desire to harm Russia - look mocking.

The US sentiment on the military suppression of Novorossia and the subsequent atlantisation of Ukraine, and Russia on the retention of the whole of Ukraine, does not allow any compromises. More precisely, some temporary compromises (local, not canceling the global confrontation between Russia and the United States) were not so long ago — but the very course of the war in the east of the former Ukraine made them impossible. It's late - the convoy has already left, the march has already passed. The offensive begins.

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  1. Wels75
    Wels75 26 August 2014 08: 24
    “These people killed the Ukrainians in us - from now on we are Russians!” Golden words (c) !!!
    1. AleksPol
      AleksPol 26 August 2014 08: 38
      And they were always Russian in spirit
    2. Giant thought
      Giant thought 26 August 2014 08: 57
      Now the future of New Russia can be seen only through the prism of victory in the war against Ukraine, which undoubtedly will be for New Russia.
    3. Varyag_1973
      Varyag_1973 26 August 2014 09: 10
      I have only one question for the author of the article: does Russia need ALL of Ukraine ?! Explain to me why we need another hemorrhoid in the form of Galicia ?! To make them Russian, all of them will have to be annihilated, to which Russia, as a rule of law, will never agree! So why are we going to step on the same rake ?! It will be very difficult to change the minds of the inhabitants, not only of Lviv, but of the same Kiev, but that there is Kiev, the same Dnepropetrovsk or Nikolaev! The only thing that can sober people up in other regions of Ukraine is bringing the DPR and LPR to prosperity, BUT, at whose expense ?! I'll tell you for whose, at the expense of again klyatih Muscovites! This is on the one hand, but on the other, we run the risk of getting to the existing refugees, about a few million more hungry and freezing residents of already central and western Ukraine, who will run to us, no matter what "don't jump, that ..." , just when there is nothing to eat, there will be no time for "dill bacon"!
      To be honest, I have no vision of a way out of the current Ukropsky impasse, even so, even so, and the campaign to feed and heat this stupid biomass "Velikoukrov" will again (as always) curse Muscovites, quilted jackets and Coloradas!
      1. Grbear
        Grbear 26 August 2014 09: 47
        I have only one question for the author of the article: does Russia need ALL of Ukraine ?!

        And who says that Ukrainians need only a single state, not a confederation? And in this form, Galicia will receive what it deserves or gives. Will not give or buzit - there will be a reservation in Europe, moreover, with tight borders, but not ours. This is my friend - politics. hi
        Article +
      2. Shiva83483
        Shiva83483 26 August 2014 14: 52
        My dear, do not forget the cry: We will never be brothers ... Yes, not really like that. Of the entire history of joint farming, these types of brothers are continuous problems. We wanted independence, here. Geyrosoyuz-here. Dear gas, it’s not a question, drown dungsters, you don’t get used to it ... And I don’t have the slightest desire to hear about the fraternal people .... cut a chunk, you can’t add it back ... wassat
  2. Drunya
    Drunya 26 August 2014 08: 28
    24.08.2014 Parade in Donetsk through the eyes of a German.
    1. Hippopotamus
      Hippopotamus 26 August 2014 21: 32
      24.08.2014 Parade in Donetsk through the eyes of a German.

      “These people killed the Ukrainians in us - from now on we are Russians!”

      Maximum repost! Thank!
  3. Boris55
    Boris55 26 August 2014 08: 28
    The march of prisoners in Donetsk was held after all the celebrations in Kiev - the last word was left for New Russia! We have already won on the egorio-matrix management. Further events will develop as we need. That is why Merkel, announcing the consolidated opinion of the West, started talking about peace and friendship with Russia.
    The West, having opened a second front in 1944, did not allow us to reach the Atlantic - this time they want to keep us out of the Dnieper ...
    1. Egoza
      26 August 2014 12: 00
      Quote: Boris55
      We have already won on the egorio-matrix management.

      And that is precisely why everyone was begging !!!!

      The EU condemned the "parade" of prisoners in Donetsk, calling it "mockery." Sergey Lavrov does not agree
      A spokesman for the European Foreign Service (EMU) told reporters on Monday, August 25, in Brussels, that the EU strongly condemns the organized "parade of captured Ukrainian soldiers" on August 24 in the streets of Donetsk.
      “This is unacceptable and is a violation of international law, according to which no one can be subjected to degrading or degrading treatment,” said the representative of EMU. He also noted the fact that prisoners were publicly insulted and abandoned.
      Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said earlier that he did not consider the action of militias who held captured Ukrainian security officials in the center of Donetsk a mockery. “As for the humiliating attitude towards prisoners of war, as you put it, let lawyers understand this. I saw this picture, this parade. I didn’t see anything that at least closely resembled mockery, ”Lavrov said.
      Earlier in Kiev, this action, held on the Independence Day of Ukraine, was considered a violation of international law. “It is impossible to name the organizers of this disgusting event as people and it is impossible to understand what they wanted to show,” the Ukrainian Defense Ministry’s information department said.
      Both the EU and NATO perfectly remembered the historic parade. And if you don’t remember, you will have to remind!
      Well, and where without our Vitalik?

      The mayor of Kiev, Vitaliy Klitschko, said that the organizers of the “Prisoner of War Parade” on Independence Day of Ukraine in Donetsk will not go unpunished.
      “Ukraine will respond to mockery of our soldiers with the destruction of terrorists. There are no words to name what happened in Donetsk today. Such barbarism and savagery cannot be forgiven, nor can there be any amnesty, ”Klitschko wrote on Facebook.

      I wonder who will punish? Vitalik personally? Go ahead !!! Directly to Donetsk and there try to punish someone!
  4. aszzz888
    aszzz888 26 August 2014 08: 29
    How symbolic, in the photo, that the woman accompanies the kennel! Although there is no place for them where the war is going on, but it is only theoretically, but in fact everyone is fighting for their happiness!
  5. Flinky
    Flinky 26 August 2014 08: 29
    We do not need all the stolen goods! Austria takes Hai Galicia, and Hungary takes Transcarpathia. We will accept the rest.
  6. O_RUS
    O_RUS 26 August 2014 08: 31
    “These people killed the Ukrainians in us - from now on we are Russians!” - these words, said by one of the speakers at a rally in Donetsk, can be considered an epigraph to the new stage of the war in Ukraine. Russians - and it doesn’t matter who the inhabitants of Donbass considered themselves to be, Ukrainians or Russians. Because Ukrainians are Russians, Little Russians, to whom the Russophobic identity was persistently imposed.

    Good luck to the Little Russians!
  7. shishakova
    shishakova 26 August 2014 08: 31
    The most important human dignity is the mind. Smart knows the price of conscience and truth!
    For our President V.V. Putin! May God grant him health!
  8. saag
    saag 26 August 2014 08: 32
    In this parade, I didn’t like that the convoy was somehow dressed in a form, where was the headgear, otherwise they were no different from those who were escorted.
    1. AleksPol
      AleksPol 26 August 2014 08: 41
      There is a good proverb "They meet by their clothes ...." The form will still be ahead.
    2. Drednout
      Drednout 26 August 2014 08: 52
      Quote: saag
      that the convoy was somehow dressed out of shape, where was the headgear, otherwise they were no different from those whom they had escorted.

      There is no year for the republic, there is no regular army either, for the militia is not a regular army, but insignia are available! So in my opinion there are no problems with distinctive details.
    3. SS68SS
      SS68SS 26 August 2014 09: 08
      Quote: saag
      In this parade, I didn’t like that the convoy was somehow dressed in a form, where was the headgear, otherwise they were no different from those who were escorted.

      They are not up to hats now. But at the VICTORY parade they’ll definitely dress, be calm ...
    4. Delink
      Delink 26 August 2014 09: 20
      You still say that they did not march!
  9. rotmistr60
    rotmistr60 26 August 2014 08: 43
    Late - the convoy has already left, the march has already passed. The offensive begins.

    And therefore, now with ukropiya and with the West now you need to talk from a position of strength.
  10. parusnik
    parusnik 26 August 2014 08: 46
    Late - the convoy has already left, the march has already passed. Offensive begins.... The conclusion is true ... Let's see what songs Potroshenko’s songs in Minsk will sing ..
    1. Russian jacket
      Russian jacket 26 August 2014 08: 54
      The usual songs for him. gas is cheaper, Russian special forces out of Hohland. What new can a character say, whom even his own army does not listen to .. Only slogans. We can jump for decency, and sing a ditty about Putin, so that the Svidomo jumpers feel the unity with the authorities and are imbued with an important historical moment. And at home he will tell how VVP humbly asked for peace and was ready to give ukram all of Russia up to the Kuriles, but he proudly refused with the words "We are not thieves, we are not thieves ....." am
  11. Magic archer
    Magic archer 26 August 2014 08: 48
    God, give strength and spirit to these people .. They are opposed by a superior gang in numbers and weapons, and they manage to constantly take them into boilers and not torment and mock the prisoners, as the Ukrainians do. The Lord sees everything ... Therefore, the victory will be for You!!!!
  12. Veteran of the Red Army
    Veteran of the Red Army 26 August 2014 08: 52
    “These people killed the Ukrainians in us - from now on we are Russians!” - these words, said by one of the speakers at a rally in Donetsk, can be considered an epigraph to the new stage of the war in Ukraine. Russians - and it doesn’t matter who the inhabitants of Donbass considered themselves to be, Ukrainians or Russians. Because Ukrainians are Russians, Little Russians, to whom the Russophobic identity was persistently imposed.
  13. Wolka
    Wolka 26 August 2014 09: 01
    everything is simple and wonderful, let's hope that this happens, and do not push the story in the back ...
  14. A1L9E4K9S
    A1L9E4K9S 26 August 2014 09: 07
    According to our clown Petrosyan, dill left dill in the parade in Donetsk, they will remember this parade for the rest of their lives, but will not boast about participation in the parade. In New Russia there is no turning back, only forward to victory, but it will come soon.
  15. Anchonsha
    Anchonsha 26 August 2014 09: 10
    And how much more blood will be shed from the stupid actions of Obama-monkey and Merkel-Gestapovka. Geyropa does not understand that, together with Ukraine, she is dying herself due to her idiotic pursuit of US policy. Russia, Putin is on the right track — Ukraine needs to be maintained in at least some status, but unified, because only then will the war that the US and the smelly geyropa so stop.
  16. Alfizik
    Alfizik 26 August 2014 09: 20
    The article is wonderful. After reading one question: does Russia, and the world as a whole, need a united Ukraine? No, not needed. Bandera consciousness is indestructible! A new Ukraine and Bandera should appear (they will come up with a name for themselves), because to be in one state to two different consciousnesses is an eternal confrontation. Fascism is a beast, and it needs a muzzle. But you can do with a menagerie - an independent Bandera. Seeing a smoker dying of cancer, we begin to smoke less.
  17. Siberian
    Siberian 26 August 2014 09: 35
    "To make them Russian, all of them will have to be annihilated, to which Russia, as a rule of law will never agree!"
    And what do you think the government is doing now? They rolled up their sleeves and are doing this dirty work tirelessly (in our opinion: around the clock, without lunch and days off). We have 5 columns, sometimes more or less. Banderstan will be gradually decreasing. Why would the Russian city of Lvov "give in"?
    See how already Kharkov, Zaporozhye have become bolder, further - more.
  18. dmb
    dmb 26 August 2014 09: 54
    Here Akopov writes sensibly, and he was captured by the "victorious rhetoric". It looks like he was also going to send troops of the DPR to Kiev. Well, at least not for Berlin, Paris, London and Washington (as some of the "frozen" commentators regularly write). And they want to Kiev? I still hear from their leadership and from the militias themselves only the need to secede from Ukraine, which in the difference from computer "commanders" makes them sane people. And our "seers" will not realize that there can be only two options for the entry of most of Ukraine into Russia: occupation and voluntary entry. In the first case, a big war is guaranteed, and not a fact, that victory will be ours. We are not the USSR, and there are no victories alone in the modern world. And for voluntarily entering the people of Ukraine must see a direct benefit from unification. Mr. Dugin's campaign about the Russian world will not work. Replacing Akhmetov with Usmanov, but Kolomoisky on the Rotenbergs gives no reason for rejoicing.
  19. Grbear
    Grbear 26 August 2014 10: 02
    Putin’s consent to a meeting with the West, and even as part of the Customs Union, speaking in sports language - capture and transfer to the stalls. Further to the choice (not at the bottom): asphyxiation, pain or retention, but Putin will not allow to crawl away with the tatami.
    All negotiators already understand this. So, retention - federalization of the entire outskirts - is almost a settled issue, but for the piglet it is the least painful.
    Oh sport - you are life © hi
  20. special
    special 26 August 2014 10: 45
    Save a record of the adventure so that the children and grandchildren of those who were led by the militia would see their fathers and grandfathers .... Interestingly, after that, the children will also shout "heroes-sala"? wassat