Ukraine strikes Europe with gas
No, summer is not over yet. No, Kiev is not cold. And Europe is not frozen. And Gazprom did not restrict gas supplies to the European Union. However, now gas has risen sharply. Deliveries scheduled for the fourth quarter of 2014, soared in price by 21%. Who is guilty? Ukraine. This state is the progressive minds of the European Union and used to be called an unreliable transit country, and now, when Kiev starts cheating in the gas game, Europeans are waiting for a monstrous rise in prices for blue fuel.The blame for everything was the bill that the Verkhovna Rada adopted on August 14. "Vedomosti" reported that the new law provides for the possibility of imposing more than two dozen types of sanctions against Russia, including blocking assets of individuals, revoking licenses from companies and banks, and (most importantly) restricting the transit of Russian gas to Europe.
This law is called “framework,” we add from ourselves, because it only establishes a framework for restrictions, but does not introduce them. And this, as they say, two big differences. However, the law is very scared ... who? Russia? No, EU countries. Why are there the European Union, even Ukraine itself is afraid of this law. Absurd? Yes. The current policy of the West and its satellites has long been pure absurdity.
The new law provides for the restriction or termination of the transit of resources, flights and traffic on the Ukrainian territory. Having counted something, Kiev acknowledged that stopping the transit of Russian gas can be expressed for Ukraine in 7 billion dollars in annual losses. This writes P. Iskanderov site "Fund of Strategic Culture".
The analyst points out that Brussels is also concerned about the transit of Russian gas through Ukraine. Fifteen countries of the European Union receive blue fuel this way today, and some of them (Bulgaria, for example) almost completely receive gas through Ukraine.
“Calculation of the Ukrainian side is clear. In Kiev, they decided to take the risk of multi-billion dollar losses in order to solve the momentary problem - to fill gas storage facilities for the coming winter. The existing agreements with Gazprom do not allow this to be done the way Kiev wants - due to the selection of transit gas or its large-scale reverse from Europe. Therefore, the NJSC “Naftogaz of Ukraine” has developed a scheme in which Gazprom’s activities on Ukrainian territory will be banned, and, accordingly, Russian gas receiving points for the European Union will be transferred from the western to the eastern border of Ukraine. This would allow the Ukrainian side to exclusively control Russian export flows. After all, the existing agreements allow Kiev only to organize a physical reverse through secondary pipelines (which has already halved in July), and also to practice “virtual reverse”, buying European gas from European countries, and then withdrawing them from transit. However, this practice is of limited value and does not solve the energy problems of Ukraine. ”
Therefore, the analyst believes that the situation may prompt the EU leadership to get rid of the “recalcitrant Ukrainian transit countries” and give the green light to the construction of the South Stream.
In the article by Olga Samofalova ("Sight") It is noted that gas futures for delivery in the next quarter at the auction in London have risen in price over the past six weeks by 21% (data from Bloomberg). At the same time, gas prices in the UK are an indicator for the entire European market.
Prices went up, experts say, precisely because of the Ukrainian crisis - more precisely, because of the policy of Kiev.
In Europe, they hoped that, by about September, Ukraine would solve the problems with debts to Gazprom and resume buying gas from Russia. But it turned out the opposite: tensions between Ukraine and Russia began to increase. In the south-east of Europe they are waiting for a gas crisis, therefore prices began to grow.
Deputy General Director of the National Energy Security Fund, Alexey Grivach, told the newspaper Vzglyad that in the face of a shortage, gas prices will rise in Europe overnight. LNG, spot gas and Russian gas will also rise in price. Here are the forecasts of the expert: prices will increase by at least a quarter, in some places twice, and in some places ten times. It is impossible to predict the maximum level to which gas prices can rise, in a crisis situation. The expert recalled that because of the previously existing problems with the supply of gas in the UK, spot prices rose to a thousand pounds. And now we are talking not only about Britain, but about half of Europe!
Who can suffer from the Ukrainian law?
“Vzglyad” notes that the blow will come first and foremost to Turkey, Bulgaria and Greece. Gas will also be “starved” by Slovenia, Austria, Italy, Croatia, and Hungary.
“Italy receives gas from other sources. But I very much doubt that there is an opportunity to increase these deliveries. Only if you buy out LNG from Asian traders, ”says Grivach. However, today LNG costs about 150 dollars more expensive than Russian gas. At the same time, Italy has the capacity to receive LNG, while most other states do not have them.
The Western and Ukrainian press, add to this, quotes the sad statement of the Deputy Prime Minister of Ukraine Volodymyr Groysman, who said that during the heating season, gas consumption by heat supply companies should be reduced by 30 percent. This will affect all regions.
It turns out that Ukraine is ready to punish not only Europe, but also itself. Again, absurd. In addition, thirty percent in practice in some places will turn into a hundred. "Sanctions" against Russia will play Moscow only on hand - Europe will stop putting sticks in the wheels of South Stream. Especially zealously will begin to speak for “Southern” Bulgaria, which has no alternative to “Gazprom” at all. Earlier, we recall, Bulgaria blocked the project of the new Russian gas pipeline - at the behest of the EU authorities.
Now, obviously, Ukraine is trying to block itself.
Kyiv’s political project is complete nonsense, especially considering that even such zealous opponents of Yuzhniy and Gazprom’s enemies as European Commissioner Oettinger (one of the preachers of not only the Third Energy Package, but also a supporter of replacing Russian gas in Europe with Iranian) this time Ukraine objected. Gunter Oettinger noted that the transfer of Russian gas reception points for the EU from the western to the eastern border of Ukraine cannot be carried out immediately, since this would have to revise long-term contracts with Gazprom. (Recall they are enclosed before the 2019 year.)
In short, the Kiev authorities seem to have gone mad. They went against all: Russia, the European Union and against themselves.
What do Russian experts think about this?
Director of the Institute of National Energy Sergey Pravosudov said "Free Press":
“Ukraine understands that if it blocks the transit, it will be like death for her in terms of relations with Europe. From such a development of events would benefit, of course, the United States, which is asleep and see how we could quarrel with the EU more strongly. But the problem is that America is far away, and Germany and Russia are close. This means that Kiev will have to negotiate with the Russians and the Germans. It is no accident that German Chancellor Angela Merkel immediately stated that she would not tolerate gas arbitrariness on the part of Ukraine. ”
But what will Kiev do in this case?
And Kiev may agree to buy Russian gas at the price offered by Gazprom (380 dollars per thousand cubic meters). However, this price will not last long. Autumn is about to come, consumption in Europe will increase, the price will rise. Therefore, Kiev will not find reverse gas from European countries for 380 dollars. According to Pravosudova, Kiev is likely to go the other way: it will limit gas consumption. First of all, the restrictions will affect Eastern Ukraine: after all, according to the Ukrainian leadership, there are “bad people” living there. Donetsk and Lugansk regions can be cut off gas. However, after these areas other regions will suffer - all over the territory of Ukraine, the expert notes. In Lugansk and Donetsk, there is coal, but what should the rest of the population “Square” do? Therefore, gas savings "face a social explosion."
To the question of the “SP” correspondent about whether the EU leadership is able to pressure Kiev into stopping hostilities in the Southeast, in exchange for a guarantee from Russia to resume gas supplies, the analyst answered:
“In Europe, there are significant differences between the interests of business and politicians. Traditionally, it is impossible to become the leader of a large European country if the United States does not like the candidacy. Until now, the interests of European business and politics did not differ much, and they turned a blind eye to this state of affairs. But now the European business is really losing money because of the position of politicians. Naturally, the business does not like this situation.
I think in the near future we will see perturbations in the European political field. But as long as current leaders are in power in Europe, it’s hard to say if they can show independence and put pressure on Ukraine. The fact is that many of them, if not all, have compromising the Americans ... ”
I think in the near future we will see perturbations in the European political field. But as long as current leaders are in power in Europe, it’s hard to say if they can show independence and put pressure on Ukraine. The fact is that many of them, if not all, have compromising the Americans ... ”
Thus, we note in conclusion, the situation threatens to become a stalemate. The government of Ukraine, apparently realizing that the ball is ruled by the United States, is trying to go for broke. And in response to its “law”, it is waiting for retaliatory measures of pressure on Russia, which should stop supporting the “separatists” in the southeast. Feeling behind Washington’s support, Kiev, in fact, threatens to freeze half of Europe. For the sake of this case Poroshenko and his clique are ready to freeze all Ukrainians.
It is clear, of course, that Kiev is counting on some quick reaction of the European Union - before the start of the heating season. That is, Brussels has about two months.
Who wins in Europe, politics or economics, God knows. One thing is clear: the United States will do everything to turn Russian gas away from Europe. And this means that Washington is interested in the current crisis. And if he is interested, he will not indulge Kiev, which is waiting for this, and rush into political decisions of the European Union. On the contrary, Washington will start pouring oil on the fire: it will talk about toughening sanctions and expanding the list of countries that should join them. Actually, this is already being discussed: the State Department people recently held talks on sanctions against Russia with South Korea, Singapore and China ...
Kiev does not even understand that in such a powerful geopolitical game, “the state of Ukraine” is just a loose change.
Observed and commented on Oleg Chuvakin
- especially for topwar.ru
- especially for topwar.ru
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