Donetsk boiler, or La commedia è finita
From a military point of view, Poroshenko made a mistake by dismissing the military from the command of the ATO and putting at the head of the ruthless militia careerist general, who clearly underestimates the enemy. According to Geletey, he is not at war with a military-competent opponent, but with bandits. Well, and bandits during riot police raids can run, hide, shoot back. But the bandits cannot surround and destroy the militiamen, because this is against the rules, and here Geletey has a block in his brain.
Justifying his appointment, Geletei began to carry out the largest "police raid" in his career. Look at the map of the region of the ATO on 20.08.14. This is not a competent military operation in Kiev, but a plan of "round-up hunting." APU, Nat. the guard, the SBU, the punitive battalions mixed up, trying to cut the forces of Novorossia into parts, cut off the DPR from the LPR, and the LPR from the Russian border and finish off the defenders of Novorossiya together with the civilian population in separate "boilers."
The first fatal mistake of Kiev was the creation of a “puff pie” instead of a single front line, which led to an exorbitant “extension of communications”.
Because “Victory over Novorossia” is simply necessary for 24.08.14’s “Independence Day”, then “great military specialists” Geletei, Avakov, Nalyvaychenko, etc. forced to throw in the area of the ATO all that is. In many military enlistment offices do not even have time to spend honey. certification, and recruits through 3-4 of the day on civil buses go to the ATO zone. Many units in the ATO zone are fighting for more than 3 months. without rotation, long exhausted mentally and lost up to 50% of personnel and equipment.
The second fatal mistake of Kiev is the exhaustion of combat units and the complete absence of highly mobile strong strategic reserves.
Unfortunately or fortunately, the generals never learn from the mistakes of others. Classic examples from the past:
1) 03.07.1919. Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of the South of Russia, General Denikin, issued the directive No. 08878 "The attack on Moscow". Already on October 6, Denikin’s troops occupied Voronezh, on October Eagle 13 and threatened Tula. It seemed that the southern front of the Bolsheviks was crumbling. But, exhausted by whites in defensive battles, the Reds struck flank attacks with mounted armies. And it was precisely Denikin’s lack of strategic reserves and the exorbitant stretch of communications led to the collapse of the March 1920 in Novorossiysk.
2) Battle of Stalingrad 1942-1943 A classic example of how, having exhausted Paulus 6's army in defensive battles, the Red Army inflicted flank attacks. Again, it was the Germans’s lack of strong strategic reserves (for the Manstein counterstrike, divisions were deployed from France and engaged in battle ”) and the exorbitant communications stretch led to the collapse of the entire German southeastern front, which ended in March 1943 with the liberation of Kharkov .
Other examples: 1920, the rout of Tukhachevsky on the Vistula, 2008 - the defeat of the Georgian army in South Ossetia, etc.
Those. Ukrainian punitive already themselves climbed into the future "Donetsk boiler". Striking even small highly mobile units of Novorussia (500 — 800 fighters and 40 — 60 armored vehicles, tightly covered with MANPADS) in strategic areas:
a) Slavyansk - Izyum - Chuguev - Kharkov (distance less than 300 km);
b) Krasnoarmeysk - Pavlodar - Dnepropetrovsk (distance less than 250 km);
c) Volnovakha - Mariupol (distance less than 100 km)
will lead not only to the seizure (destruction) of the main supply bases of the ATO, but, more importantly, to the moral collapse of the entire grouping of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. They will simply not be able to stop these raids due to the complete absence of highly mobile strong strategic reserves. Even hasty attempts to stop Novorussia’s connections with strikes of the remaining Su-25 and Mi-24 will not have an effect due to the fear of the pilots entering the MANPADS area. The effect of raising the flags of New Russia (even for several days) over the region. councils of Kharkov, Dnepropetrovsk and Mariupol will lead to panic in the ranks of the already unstable and frazzled parts of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the ATO zone.
Naturally, the warriors of Novorossia do not have enough forces and means to create a classic "boiler" with external and internal fronts. But this is not required, the effect of these raids will lead to mass panic in parts of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, and panic in war is a contagious thing and always has an avalanche effect.
Someone may call me a "traitor", issuing plans for New Russia to the enemy.
Firstly, all my analysis is done solely on open data, and any competent military man will see this situation without my hints. Secondly, the APU can not change anything, because for this, they should at least immediately begin the withdrawal of all parts from Novorossia to create a united front along the Mashlykino-Severodonetsk-Slavyansk-Kramatorsk-Krasnoarmeysk-Kurakhovo-Volnovakha-Mikhailovka line. And this is impossible even simply because of the lack of troops on such a front. Not to mention that this is a recognition of the defeat in the ATO, and this is when Kiev considers the days to complete victory. Therefore, the Kiev junta will continue to throw all forces on the assault of Donetsk and Lugansk, like Denikin in 1919 on Moscow, and Hitler in 1942 on Stalingrad.
I think that all of us will soon witness the collapse of the ATO.
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