The similarity with the situation of the middle of 80's is obvious, experts say
The price of Russian oil for the first time this year fell below 100 dollars per barrel. Urals oil was traded at 18 in August near the mark of 98 dollars per barrel. A barrel of Brent crude oil fell in value to a level below 102 dollars per barrel. Over the past 12 months, Urals has lost 11,3%, since the beginning of the year - 8,2%.
Experts believe that the fall in prices largely has artificially created reasons, these are a kind of - regular sanctions against undesirable US regimes. For Russia, the similarities with the situation in the middle of 80's are obvious - the United States plays on national contradictions.
The Russian economy is highly dependent on the price of oil and gas, and it is clear that falling prices create a new budgetary problem for us. After all, the budget for 2014 was imposed on the basis of the price in 114 dollars, which means that it will have to be redrawn, discarded from any expenditure items.
Doctor of Economics, Professor, Chief Researcher of the Institute of Economics of the Russian Academy of Sciences Oleg Sukharev believes that the situation may be caused by America’s geopolitical interests.
“You remember when the Iran-Iraq war was unleashed, the United States (these are 1984 – 85 years) were very active instigators of this conflict. As a result of this war, it would seem that the price of oil was supposed to rise. After all, the demand seemed to exceed supply. But there was a destabilization of players in the oil market. This led to a sharp drop in oil prices. If before that it was about 50 dollars per barrel, then after that it became 8 – 12 dollars. Five times in a very short time (year - one and a half) the price has decreased. Of course, this was all a budgetary problem for the USSR, which at that time, as a result of an appropriately targeted operation, was drawn into Afghanistan, had budgetary problems (expenses increased). Then the West analyzed the structure of the economy of the USSR and decided to cut off the income of raw materials. The first action in connection with the invasion of the USSR in Afghanistan was carried out. You do not need to use a great mind to design such a military-economic operation. Not that this was the only reason for the destruction of the USSR. It reflects only targeted actions for this destruction. We still enjoy the fruits of what was created at that time. But in the end, such geopolitics played an important role in the destruction of the Soviet Union and its economy. The destabilization of his political system, at the same time, was also important, ”the expert reminds.
He does not exclude that the United States will act under the same scenario now, adding the factor of “national contradictions”. After all, then he, too, played out.
“Iraq is destabilized again. Destabilization in this region is fraught with problems related to the fact that the warring parties do not comply with agreements on the volume of oil supplies and emit more oil because they need to finance the war. And the US cheap oil is profitable, because their economy is in a very difficult situation. This will reduce the total cost, which should revive the real sector, which, by and large, they can not start, since the crisis 2007 — 2010. (even giving the banking system this carte blanche), ”he believes.
At the same time, Sukharev said that the budget of our country would not be destabilized, even if a barrel of oil cost 70 dollars.
“As far as I know, when forecasting economic growth and in the current budget for 2014 a year and a three-year budget, different oil prices were taken into account. That is, for example, that the price will be, say, at the level of 110 – 120 dollars and at the level of 70 – 90 dollars per barrel - such a scenario is calculated. Below 60 dollars, of course, I suppose no one counted. Of course, if the price drops to this level, there will be problems. And we will have to look for other sources to provide the budget with money. But, in principle, these funds are there, it is necessary to properly plan the development of the economy, exports, which will give the missing income in this case. I mean agricultural products (good wheat harvest), contracts in the defense sector (armaments and military equipment), other elements of the mineral resource complex. And even high-tech projects in the nuclear sector and space. Additional revenues can be learned from these sectors. Therefore, it seems to me, you should not be discouraged if the price of oil drops, ”he noted.
The researcher expressed his point of view on this question. stories state economic policy, writer Andrew Parshev: “Well, you know, the price of oil is a unique phenomenon in the world. First, the prices for one resource do not attract so much attention. And, secondly, do not behave so inexplicably. The real reasons for the fall or rise in price (up to the peak) were never explained to anybody. Probably not worth pretending to be an oracle and explaining why this happened. Yes, indeed, there is such a moment that the egg is expensive for the day of Christ. Reducing the price of oil (an export commodity important to us) is beneficial for the Americans. They, in principle, have certain levers in order to somehow influence the price reduction. Through the oil monarchies of the Middle East, they can, in principle, increase the supply of oil on the world market and for some (as a rule, short) time, significantly lower the price. This was during some periods. ”
However, he believes that the collapse of the USSR cannot be attributed solely to what was happening at that time in the oil segment.
“But I would like to say that it is wrong to say that the USSR collapsed due to low oil prices. Even if it fell apart economically, there were reasons far more complex. For example, in 1998 – 99, prices were also extremely low. If I'm not mistaken, around 20 dollars per barrel. I would categorically oppose these speculations. Speculations about the fact that the United States can in its own interests influence the price of oil in order to press Russia even stronger. The United States has an arsenal of measures of pressure on Russia. Our planners are counting on prices and below 100 dollars per barrel, ”said Parshev.
Speaking about whether the instigation of the situation in Iraq could have contributed to the change in the price of oil, Andrei Parshev said: “The problem of world politics is that no one declares his goals. In order to be able to achieve them. Probably, the Americans would like to somehow influence the situation. But I remind you that America is limited in its funds. This decline has, in my opinion, natural causes. They can be associated, for example, with the cyclical nature of the world economy. ”
At the same time, Parshev reiterated the problematic tendency, which is characteristic for the economy of our country. However, not only for Russia.
“We have certain reserves, which will be spent in this situation. Because our budget depends on energy prices. When a country lives on such a principle, naturally, it is necessary to take measures in case of a sharp decline in prices. We must have a certain reserve, ”he said.