The plan for surrogate Ukraine’s entry into NATO has been published
A group of military and political experts close to the presidential administration of Ukraine published a plan for a phased modernization of the country's Armed Forces to 2020 in the influential liberal weekly journal of Kiev Zerkalo Nego. In the era of "new modernity," they believe, the army should enter a small, modern, mobile - and under the roof of NATO, a surrogate of which for formally non-aligned Ukraine should become more active participation in international military missions abroad.Experts state the impossibility of the Armed Forces of Ukraine to really secure the state. Financing of the army went on the residual principle in the minimum amount, sent mainly to the maintenance of personnel. There was a rapid deterioration of the technical condition of the armaments of the Armed Forces, the decline of combat training, the deprofessionalization of their commanding staff, the accumulation of social problems, etc.
Today, the state has 200 thousandths of aircraft with a large and dilapidated infrastructure, a lot of institutions, enterprises, stocks of military property, as well as weapons and military equipment, almost all the main types of which can become unsuitable for use by the end of 2011 – 2012. There are no modern systems of air and ground reconnaissance, control, digital communications, navigation, as well as high-precision land, sea and air weapons. Military authorities, formations and units are not trained. The sun does not have the necessary reserves.
The proclamation of non-blocking policy by Ukraine does not exclude recourse to other countries for help, and the crisis increases the likelihood of war
Armed aggression, as a result of which war can begin against Ukraine, is unlikely. This creates a strategic pause for Ukraine, at least on 4-5 years, during which military reform can be carried out.
However, one should not exclude the possibility of a threat of armed conflict at the border of Ukraine at this time as a result of territorial claims to the state (Romania), intensification of “frozen” conflicts (Transdniestria) or internal instability provoked from the outside on national, ethnic or religious grounds (Crimea).
It is unlikely that anyone will decide on an all-out war against Ukraine - this threatens the neighboring EU and Russia with too serious environmental, economic and demographic consequences. Long-term informational and ideological wars, pinpoint strikes on points of government and a slide into regional wars are more likely.
In Ukraine, military reform will coincide in time with other reforms - public administration, the judicial system, criminal justice, the economy, the social sphere, education, health care, etc. Therefore, the reform should be systemic.
The main objectives of military reform, it would be appropriate to define:
- the creation of combat-ready, mobile, small in number of weapons and the number of personnel of the Armed Forces
- introduction of a modern mobilization system taking into account the peculiarities of the latest armed conflicts
- the implementation of a new fiscal policy in the field of defense, adequate to the opportunities and threats
The primary objectives of the Armed Forces for the near future are:
- carrying combat duty on air defense and cover important state objects;
- localization and liquidation of a possible border armed conflict;
- Participation in international peacekeeping and security efforts.
It is proposed to carry out military reform for nine years (from 2012-th to 2020 year) in three stages. At its first (in 2012 – 2013) and second (in 2014 – 2015) stages, it is recommended:
- mobilize aircraft through the repair and modernization of weapons and equipment;
- to ensure the participation of Ukraine in international events to maintain peace and security (a substitute for participation in NATO, providing a surrogate cover);
- reduce mobilization reserves and reserves by 40 – 60%;
- to reduce by 30 – 40% the personnel of the Ministry of Defense, the General Staff, other administrative structures, the number of military units and units, as well as educational institutions; suspend for two or three years the recruitment of cadets, withdraw from the aircraft from 30% to 50% of infrastructure facilities, weapons, other movable and immovable military property. Thanks to such measures, the total strength of the Armed Forces personnel can be reduced in four years by 30 – 40%.
In 2012 – 2013, it is necessary to restore the technical condition of the existing weapons, military and special equipment, missiles and ammunition (hereinafter - IWT) of combat duty forces.
Over the course of 2014 – 2015, the restoration of the technical condition and combat capability of the advanced defense forces (20 – 30 thousand military units) must be completed.
In 2016 – 2020, it is proposed to begin re-equipping the renewed aircraft with precision weapons, reconnaissance, control, digital communications and navigation systems and ensure their readiness for local or regional war.
It is clear that there is no money, so you need to start the restoration with air defense and air cover of strategic objects. From the new weapons focus on the programs "Corvette" and "An-70". other issues later and after the growth of the economy.
It is unacceptable to maintain in the composition of the Armed Forces of the connection and parts in the absence of their serviceable and suitable for the updating of weapons and military equipment. We are talking about, for example, a brigade of tactical missiles, a regiment of rocket launchers, anti-aircraft missile divisions equipped with medium-range and long-range anti-aircraft missile systems, divisions of anti-ship missiles.
Remove from the Armed Forces and transfer surplus or unsuitable military property to local communities. Now, from more than 1500 military camps in almost 400, there are no military structures anymore, but almost 19, thousands of people, guard and maintain them.
Cut the call. By the end of 2020, to bring the staffing by contract soldiers to 75 – 80%. To recruit only units and units with technically sound IWT and proper combat training with contract soldiers.
To increase the salary, to solve the problem of official and permanent housing, social and living conditions in military camps.
Annual increase in total expenditures for the needs of the Armed Forces. At the beginning of 2010 of the year, they were in Ukraine 5,1 thousand dollars per military, in Russia - 33,1 thousand, in Romania - 45,4 thousand, in Poland - 54,7 thousand and in Slovakia - 61,7 thousand.
Refuse to determine the total cost for the Ministry of Defense in accordance with the strength of the Armed Forces personnel. Reduce to 60 – 55% the share of expenditures for maintaining the Armed Forces to the extent of their reductions, increasing the share of expenditures on re-equipping troops to 25 – 30% and their combat training to 15%.
A new concept paper on military reform should be public. Society should be aware of the comparative number of military and civil servants, generals, officers and soldiers by type of troops, contract soldiers, the number of headquarters and infrastructure facilities, the number of main types of weapons, and indicators of the intensity of individual combat training.
By 2020, the recovery of the Armed Forces will be restored, the beginning of the formation of their new appearance, the reduction in the number of administrative structures in 1,5 – 2, the reduction in the number of personnel by approximately two times to 90 – 100 and an increase in 70 — 80 times the size of their cash security.
The authors also call for the reform of the Ukrainian military-industrial complex and the system of military-technical cooperation, without specifying, however, what their new essence should be. But it can be assumed that this is a gradual curtailment of military cooperation with the republics of the former USSR (primarily with Russia) and the involvement of the West in the military-technical sphere.
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